politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Monkey’s paw. Delivering on the referendum campaign promises
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Monkey’s paw. Delivering on the referendum campaign promises
Voters overwhelmingly now remember only two arguments being made in favour of Brexit before the referendum: curb immigration & more money for the NHS. pic.twitter.com/6bmcd3Tvwk
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Hunt for PM...?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46341310
Remaining in the Customs Union ends free movement still, unlike the Norway option and still allows for some savings from money sent to the EU budget to continue to be put into the NHS thus respecting the two key pledges remembered by voters from the victorious Leave campaign.
Given just 1% remember new trading opportunities outside the EU there will only be a small price to pay if staying in the Customs Union prevents that.
As Alistair points out only 32% back No Deal which is not viable especially given the economic damage it would do too
Good news for the student of course, but Hunt is pretty crap.
Politicians actually in office, as opposed to some ephemeral campaigns that were not, then have a duty to get on and deliver the vote of the people. I don't agree with May on much but in that she is spot on.
We're pretty screwed and very likely to remain now.
Which, to be fair, is not difficult.
On topic I do have to commend remain for winning the long term war. Leavers had to overcome the opposition but things are only moving in one direction now.
I guess they don't believe in democracy ...
http://ukandeu.ac.uk/brexit-the-board-game/
I bet Fox has concluded literally dozens of trade deals playing this. Or not.
Make own laws: 4%
Take back Control: 3%
About one tenth of the concern over immigration
The reason is that the the promises are undeliverable. I'm not a huge fan of a second referendum however. The question doesn't get any more sensible for being asked twice.
So three quarters of the reasoning. I think that's about right, was ALL about immigration round here.
New trading opportunities, a stronger economy, taking back control and sovereignty/vassalage were not what people voted to leave on.
Just because those priorities (Immigration, immigration, NHS in that order) aren't shared by most MPs and media commentators doesn't mean they weren't the most salient.
The end to FOM (eventually) means the loss of any government's excuse for open borders. Those who want open borders are entitled to argue for them, but most people prefer some control. Not no immigration, which is only a straw man constructed as an argument for those who want unlimited immigration.
£39 billion is being bandied about as a reasonable payment to the EU. By whose standards? We won't miss it, will we?
The No-deal bogeyman is being used effectively by the media, and they may be right, even if economic forecasts are notoriously unreliable. But Labour's plea that "we could have done better' is simplistic, even for them, predictable, and unlikely to gain any traction with any but fervent Remainers.
A re-run of the referendum may be the fervent Remainers' lifeline, but the Brexit campaign writes itself. Bend the knew to the EU now and all credibility is lost. What is the Remainer campaign? We are a servile nation and we must know our place? Good luck with that one.
It will be interesting to compare that report with this:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/employmentbycountryofbirthandnationalityemp06
because in the year ending June 2018 the number of non-UK people employed fell.
If there has not been a corresponding collapse in immigration then there needs to be some pretty hard questions asked about which people, and for what purpose, are being allowed to migrate to the UK.
But do you think Lee Rowley understands that ?
The government's deal will be rejected heavily and I expect the government to fall with it. At that point we will have no deal with the EU and no government with a majority for anything other than stopping the UK crashing out of the EU. And that could be a minority Labour government or minority Tory government, but it will be in minority. And the only way to stop us crashing out amongst the chaos will be to rescind Article 50 and remain.
"Ah but democracy" bleat the people who are disinterested in not just democracy but the workings of our democratic system. There was a referendum. The government spent several years trying to deliver the wishes of the referendum. The government fell doing so and the only remaining options are remain or national ruin. The new government is NOT BOUND by a referendum held by a previous government when the only way to "respect" it is to destroy the economy. No government is bound by its predecessor and the people demanding that it should be "for democracy" need to read what that word means in the political system of the United Kingdom.
Final point. How does this new minority government respect what the will of the people was? Look at the chart - migration and the NHS. The new government implements curbs on Free Movement by copying the Belgians - 3 months to find a job or we remove you. The new government strips the vast costs of the NHS market away and redirects the money from managing contracts into front line services. Done.
Second referendum must be the most likely outcome now.
Jupiter is turning leverage into leaverage.
I am instinctively inclined to think ill of Christopher Chope, but it would surely be better to have the substantive detail discussed, rather than to force me to take it on trust.
Freedom of Movement on the other hand is not so much a red line as an electrified red line.....
Very surprising figures.
Still he's against fracking in Marsh Lane (Whilst not opposed nationally !) - which will probably ensure his survival. But on the EU he's miles out, NE Derbyshire is not a libertarian seat.
Flint seems more in favour and more aligned to her voters. Not sure about Mann, he's been very quiet.
Oh, and don't travel to a country and start asking questions of officials for 'academic research' about recent and ongoing regional conflicts, which the local government are understandably somewhat sensitive about.
A confession is pretty meaningless, even a filmed one, as who knows what duress he was under to say what his captors made him say? Both a spy and a non-spy would deny being one and confessing to being one would not come from a guilty conscience or desire to cleanse ones soul it comes from fear.
The fact he has been released is what matters.
We all expect the deal to fall but the legislation provides 21 days for TM to respond.
In that period she remains in office and the way forward is for her to decide. I would hope that with the backing of Amber Rudd and other moderate conservatives she will meet with the other party leaders including Nicola Sturgeon and pivot to Norway. We know this is SNP option and it would command general cross party support.
Then in discussion with the EU the process is set down and with the EU agreement A50 is delayed a few months to allow the process including HOC agreement.
This solution is brexit, protects jobs and industry, excludes UK from CFP and avoids the prospect of the nation tearing itself apart over a terribly divisive second referendum
It would anger the purists but they do not matter. Coalescing around a sensible compromise is the way forward and navigates us towards the essential task of dealing with the domestic agenda
This is my preferred route and I hope TM takes it
Trouble is some of the 27 jackals smell blood leaking from the self-inflicted backstop wound.
Varadkar does not want no deal.
I think it's more likely that the defeat of the deal will lead to irresistible calls for a second referendum from MPs of all parties.
The biggest question is how fudgey it can get.
Looks like Jeremy Hunt has just done his reputation a lot of good
https://digital.library.lse.ac.uk/objects/lse:sav235yoh
here:
https://digital.library.lse.ac.uk/objects/lse:put953zav
and here:
https://digital.library.lse.ac.uk/objects/lse:wec467cet
So their focus was just as much on trade deals and taking back control as it was on immigration and the NHS. They sought, and can claim, a mandate for both.
Boris would have said he was a spy...given his track record.
They did, so, by his argument, they do.