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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Monkey’s paw. Delivering on the referendum campaign promises

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  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    He really is. It’s embarrassing.

    The conduct of our politicians since 2016 makes me wonder if jury service for the Commons would give better results than election.

    How can our rulers be so dismal?
  • Pulpstar said:

    The paradoxes of a second referendum remain. We won't get a second referendum unless Brexit collapses and if Brexit collapses a second referendum won't be an immediate priority. Brexit will only collapse under the pressure of the A50 deadline and political failure. But by the time we get to the A50 deadline to precipitate a second referendum there won't be time for a second referendum.

    A second referendum requires an extension to Article 50, and that requires the unanimous consent of the EU27. They would probably grant it if they thought there was a reasonably good chance of the referendum resolving things, although we can't be sure, and it's not unlikely that one or more of the countries would seek to use it as leverage (on Gibraltar or fish, for example, as has been suggested). And then there are all the issues about what the referendum options should be, and no guarantee that the referendum would produce the 'right' or indeed any clear result.

    All in all, the whole thing is the biggest mess imaginable, and the only way out of the mess is the one which MPs seem very likely to reject.
    Remain?
    Without another referendum ?

    That really would be a democratic abomination.
    I think we've already pretty comprehensively exhausted the idea that Parliament truly cares what the electorate think.
    Apart from the only bit which matters 52/48.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Pulpstar said:

    The paradoxes of a second referendum remain. We won't get a second referendum unless Brexit collapses and if Brexit collapses a second referendum won't be an immediate priority. Brexit will only collapse under the pressure of the A50 deadline and political failure. But by the time we get to the A50 deadline to precipitate a second referendum there won't be time for a second referendum.

    A second referendum requires an extension to Article 50, and that requires the unanimous consent of the EU27. They would probably grant it if they thought there was a reasonably good chance of the referendum resolving things, although we can't be sure, and it's not unlikely that one or more of the countries would seek to use it as leverage (on Gibraltar or fish, for example, as has been suggested). And then there are all the issues about what the referendum options should be, and no guarantee that the referendum would produce the 'right' or indeed any clear result.

    All in all, the whole thing is the biggest mess imaginable, and the only way out of the mess is the one which MPs seem very likely to reject.
    I agree with your first three points. Your fourth point that we have to accept May's deal because May has blocked all the exits save that one then set the building on fire ... provokes a visceral rage I've never felt in my political life. I won't be alone.
    It's not Mrs May that has blocked all the other exits, it's the EU negotiating position. I don't recommend rage, but if you want to indulge I suggest you rant in that direction.
    Um, May was the one that poured petrol over the building in the first place.
    Even if you think that do you remain in the building to be burnt alive ?
    At risk of overextending this metaphor long past the breaking point, let's just accept that, yes. Trust in May is so abyssal at this point, most people would risk burning to death rather than give her the benefit of the doubt.

    But also, we can see the strapping lads of the fire department standing by outside with ladders and hoses, so we can treat May's desperate threats that we should jump out of the window with our eyes closed "or else" with some scepticism.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Damn it, if only my careers teacher had told me Getting The Wrong End Of The Stick was a career choice.....
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    The paradoxes of a second referendum remain. We won't get a second referendum unless Brexit collapses and if Brexit collapses a second referendum won't be an immediate priority. Brexit will only collapse under the pressure of the A50 deadline and political failure. But by the time we get to the A50 deadline to precipitate a second referendum there won't be time for a second referendum.

    A second referendum requires an extension to Article 50, and that requires the unanimous consent of the EU27. They would probably grant it if they thought there was a reasonably good chance of the referendum resolving things, although we can't be sure, and it's not unlikely that one or more of the countries would seek to use it as leverage (on Gibraltar or fish, for example, as has been suggested). And then there are all the issues about what the referendum options should be, and no guarantee that the referendum would produce the 'right' or indeed any clear result.

    All in all, the whole thing is the biggest mess imaginable, and the only way out of the mess is the one which MPs seem very likely to reject.
    The Withdrawal Agreement is essentially fixed, but the future arrangement that will take its place is wide open. The outcomes could include rejoining the EU or even not leaving in the first place. All of the options require EU consent so there's no reason to reflect a preferred path just because the EU hasn't agreed yet. Mrs May disengenuously pretends her outcome is the only one. Her many opponents should call her out on that if they think they have a better plan.
  • The paradoxes of a second referendum remain. We won't get a second referendum unless Brexit collapses and if Brexit collapses a second referendum won't be an immediate priority. Brexit will only collapse under the pressure of the A50 deadline and political failure. But by the time we get to the A50 deadline to precipitate a second referendum there won't be time for a second referendum.

    A second referendum requires an extension to Article 50, and that requires the unanimous consent of the EU27. They would probably grant it if they thought there was a reasonably good chance of the referendum resolving things, although we can't be sure, and it's not unlikely that one or more of the countries would seek to use it as leverage (on Gibraltar or fish, for example, as has been suggested). And then there are all the issues about what the referendum options should be, and no guarantee that the referendum would produce the 'right' or indeed any clear result.

    All in all, the whole thing is the biggest mess imaginable, and the only way out of the mess is the one which MPs seem very likely to reject.
    I agree with your first three points. Your fourth point that we have to accept May's deal because May has blocked all the exits save that one then set the building on fire ... provokes a visceral rage I've never felt in my political life. I won't be alone.
    You can rage all you like. doesn't change the facts.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    Nigelb said:

    Xenon said:

    Xenon said:

    Sean_F said:


    None of which refutes my argument that "lots of people favour No Deal.". It is quite possible that No Deal would win a referendum, starting from that base.

    As always, though, you need to distinguish 'no deal' from the very different 'orderly transition to WTO terms'. Many people don't seem to understand the difference, and some of those who do (or should) often seem deliberately to conflate them.
    If we're just going to WTO terms anyway, then what are we giving them £39bn for exactly? It was sold to the electorate as part of our leverage to get a decent trade deal.
    We are paying so that they gently remove the gun we've pointed at our heads.
    Perhaps explain what they are giving us in exchange for the money without using a metaphor.

    As I am starting to suspect that it's nothing.
    The payment is mainly for the two years of orderly transition :

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/eu-divorce-bill
    The deal in December did not contain an exact figure, though at the time, UK officials estimated a potential bill of £35–39 billion (bn).

    The UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) set out detailed estimates of what the UK would pay in its Economic and Fiscal Outlook report, published alongside the Chancellor’s Spring Statement. That set out a total bill of €41.4bn (£37.1bn), extending out to 2064 as pension liabilities fall due.

    But it also makes clear that around half consist of payments the UK will make during the transition phase. The OBR estimates net payments under the financial settlement of €18.5bn (£16.4bn) in 2019 and 2020, during the transition, followed by net payments of €7.6bn in 2021, €5.8bn (2022) €3.1bn (2023) and €1.7bn (2024) before falling away to €0.2bn in 2028. The liabilities, net of assets, that then remain to be paid amount to a total of €2.7bn over the period 2021–45....
    But both sides want an "orderly transition", the EU aren't conceding this as it is in their best interests too.

    So we're giving them £39bn in exchange for something they wanted anyway. It's a complete failure in negotiation.
  • At risk of overextending this metaphor long past the breaking point, let's just accept that, yes. Trust in May is so abyssal at this point, most people would risk burning to death rather than give her the benefit of the doubt.

    But also, we can see the strapping lads of the fire department standing by outside with ladders and hoses, so we can treat May's desperate threats that we should jump out of the window with our eyes closed "or else" with some scepticism.

    Vince, Adonis... strapping lads?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T

    "Waitrose magazine's former editor who quit over 'killing vegans' remark claims vegans 'threatened to roast his baby and attack his wife'"

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/waitrose-magazines-former-editor-who-quit-over-killing-vegans-comments-claimed-some-threatened-to-a4000291.html
  • FF43 said:

    The Withdrawal Agreement is essentially fixed, but the future arrangement that will take its place is wide open. The outcomes could include rejoining the EU or even not leaving in the first place. All of the options require EU consent so there's no reason to reflect a preferred path just because the EU hasn't agreed yet. Mrs May disengenuously pretends her outcome is the only one. Her many opponents should call her out on that if they think they have a better plan.

    They don't have a better plan, that is exactly the point.
  • Xenon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Xenon said:

    Xenon said:

    Sean_F said:


    None of which refutes my argument that "lots of people favour No Deal.". It is quite possible that No Deal would win a referendum, starting from that base.

    As always, though, you need to distinguish 'no deal' from the very different 'orderly transition to WTO terms'. Many people don't seem to understand the difference, and some of those who do (or should) often seem deliberately to conflate them.
    If we're just going to WTO terms anyway, then what are we giving them £39bn for exactly? It was sold to the electorate as part of our leverage to get a decent trade deal.
    We are paying so that they gently remove the gun we've pointed at our heads.
    Perhaps explain what they are giving us in exchange for the money without using a metaphor.

    As I am starting to suspect that it's nothing.
    The payment is mainly for the two years of orderly transition :

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/eu-divorce-bill
    The deal in December did not contain an exact figure, though at the time, UK officials estimated a potential bill of £35–39 billion (bn).

    The UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) set out detailed estimates of what the UK would pay in its Economic and Fiscal Outlook report, published alongside the Chancellor’s Spring Statement. That set out a total bill of €41.4bn (£37.1bn), extending out to 2064 as pension liabilities fall due.

    But it also makes clear that around half consist of payments the UK will make during the transition phase. The OBR estimates net payments under the financial settlement of €18.5bn (£16.4bn) in 2019 and 2020, during the transition, followed by net payments of €7.6bn in 2021, €5.8bn (2022) €3.1bn (2023) and €1.7bn (2024) before falling away to €0.2bn in 2028. The liabilities, net of assets, that then remain to be paid amount to a total of €2.7bn over the period 2021–45....
    But both sides want an "orderly transition", the EU aren't conceding this as it is in their best interests too.

    So we're giving them £39bn in exchange for something they wanted anyway. It's a complete failure in negotiation.
    Since the transition is to remain in under the same rules as present (but without voting rights) then the payments are mostly part of following those existing rules, they aren't made in order to be allowed the transition, but as a consequence of it.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sean_F said:

    The jury has failed to reach a verdict in the trial of Fiona Onasanya.

    Retrial ?

    Imagine her vote now blocks May's deal..
    A Labour MP accused of lying about who was driving her speeding car will face a retrial after a jury failed to reach a verdict.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46316184

    You have got to be having a giraffe.
    When's the next trial likely to be?
    11th December.
    That soon? Good news. I thought it would be in 3 months' time.
    Actually, that might be total fake news...I thought I read that in the article linked, but can't see it now. Might just be totally imaging it while doing 27 other things.
    Okay.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Pulpstar said:

    The paradoxes of a second referendum remain. We won't get a second referendum unless Brexit collapses and if Brexit collapses a second referendum won't be an immediate priority. Brexit will only collapse under the pressure of the A50 deadline and political failure. But by the time we get to the A50 deadline to precipitate a second referendum there won't be time for a second referendum.

    A second referendum requires an extension to Article 50, and that requires the unanimous consent of the EU27. They would probably grant it if they thought there was a reasonably good chance of the referendum resolving things, although we can't be sure, and it's not unlikely that one or more of the countries would seek to use it as leverage (on Gibraltar or fish, for example, as has been suggested). And then there are all the issues about what the referendum options should be, and no guarantee that the referendum would produce the 'right' or indeed any clear result.

    All in all, the whole thing is the biggest mess imaginable, and the only way out of the mess is the one which MPs seem very likely to reject.
    Remain?
    Without another referendum ?

    That really would be a democratic abomination.
    I think we've already pretty comprehensively exhausted the idea that Parliament truly cares what the electorate think.
    Apart from the only bit which matters 52/48.
    May and her Whitehall functionaries have, to the maximum extent possible allowed under law, along with the combined weight of the Brussels mandarinate, conspired to lock Britain into an eternal BRINO thus "respecting" the will of the people only in the most trivial sense.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    At risk of overextending this metaphor long past the breaking point, let's just accept that, yes. Trust in May is so abyssal at this point, most people would risk burning to death rather than give her the benefit of the doubt.

    But also, we can see the strapping lads of the fire department standing by outside with ladders and hoses, so we can treat May's desperate threats that we should jump out of the window with our eyes closed "or else" with some scepticism.

    Vince, Adonis... strapping lads?
    Hey, my metaphor, my strapping lads. Capisce?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    FF43 said:

    The Withdrawal Agreement is essentially fixed, but the future arrangement that will take its place is wide open. The outcomes could include rejoining the EU or even not leaving in the first place. All of the options require EU consent so there's no reason to reflect a preferred path just because the EU hasn't agreed yet. Mrs May disengenuously pretends her outcome is the only one. Her many opponents should call her out on that if they think they have a better plan.

    They don't have a better plan, that is exactly the point.
    They don't have any worse plans either. Maybe that is also the point.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Waitrose magazine's former editor who quit over 'killing vegans' remark claims vegans 'threatened to roast his baby and attack his wife'"

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/waitrose-magazines-former-editor-who-quit-over-killing-vegans-comments-claimed-some-threatened-to-a4000291.html

    Best line:

    “No one bays for the blood of a human more than a militant, raging vegan.”

  • At risk of overextending this metaphor long past the breaking point, let's just accept that, yes. Trust in May is so abyssal at this point, most people would risk burning to death rather than give her the benefit of the doubt.

    But also, we can see the strapping lads of the fire department standing by outside with ladders and hoses, so we can treat May's desperate threats that we should jump out of the window with our eyes closed "or else" with some scepticism.

    Vince, Adonis... strapping lads?
    Hey, my metaphor, my strapping lads. Capisce?
    You're welcome to them! Although I should declare that I once danced round in circles holding hands with Lord Adonis at a bat mitzvah.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    Everyone seems certain the vote is going to be lost by miles.

    So how come you can back No at 1.35 on Betfair - and you can bet a substantial sum (over £2,000) right now at between 1.3 and 1.35.
  • RobCRobC Posts: 398

    At risk of overextending this metaphor long past the breaking point, let's just accept that, yes. Trust in May is so abyssal at this point, most people would risk burning to death rather than give her the benefit of the doubt.

    But also, we can see the strapping lads of the fire department standing by outside with ladders and hoses, so we can treat May's desperate threats that we should jump out of the window with our eyes closed "or else" with some scepticism.

    Vince, Adonis... strapping lads?
    Hey, my metaphor, my strapping lads. Capisce?
    Mr Cock sometimes on PB less is more , Capisce
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Waitrose magazine's former editor who quit over 'killing vegans' remark claims vegans 'threatened to roast his baby and attack his wife'"

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/waitrose-magazines-former-editor-who-quit-over-killing-vegans-comments-claimed-some-threatened-to-a4000291.html

    Call the Vegan Police!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgEmxGL1JvQ
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    At risk of overextending this metaphor long past the breaking point, let's just accept that, yes. Trust in May is so abyssal at this point, most people would risk burning to death rather than give her the benefit of the doubt.

    But also, we can see the strapping lads of the fire department standing by outside with ladders and hoses, so we can treat May's desperate threats that we should jump out of the window with our eyes closed "or else" with some scepticism.

    Vince, Adonis... strapping lads?
    Hey, my metaphor, my strapping lads. Capisce?
    You're welcome to them! Although I should declare that I once danced round in circles holding hands with Lord Adonis at a bat mitzvah.
    I refuse to make space for anyone else in my Dom Raab shrine.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Oppostion to May has gone full horseshoe.

    Who'd have thought a #FBPEer would be singing the praises of Anne Marie Norris ?!

    https://twitter.com/petersturdgess/status/1066613882314244096
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Seems that Downing Street is already wargaming prosecuting the French under the backstop

    https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1067064309241602053
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2018
    Piers Corbyn. Everyone's favourite "long-term weather forecaster".
  • AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sean_F said:

    The jury has failed to reach a verdict in the trial of Fiona Onasanya.

    Retrial ?

    Imagine her vote now blocks May's deal..
    A Labour MP accused of lying about who was driving her speeding car will face a retrial after a jury failed to reach a verdict.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46316184

    You have got to be having a giraffe.
    When's the next trial likely to be?
    11th December.
    That soon? Good news. I thought it would be in 3 months' time.
    Actually, that might be total fake news...I thought I read that in the article linked, but can't see it now. Might just be totally imaging it while doing 27 other things.
    Okay.
    The 11th December date was definitely in an early version of that story!
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    AndyJS said:

    Piers Corbyn. Everyone's favourite "long-term weather forecaster".

    Piers Corbyn is presumably what happens when you splice the DNA of Jeremy Corbyn and Piers Morgan into some horrific cronenburgian chimera.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Nigelb said:

    Is that the sage, or the Onion ... ?
    Dunno but either way she belongs on the inside of a turkey!
  • MikeL said:

    Everyone seems certain the vote is going to be lost by miles.

    So how come you can back No at 1.35 on Betfair - and you can bet a substantial sum (over £2,000) right now at between 1.3 and 1.35.

    Well, that market includes a second vote as well (provided it is in 2018).
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    edited November 2018
    Just a point but when are the broadcasters on College Green going to do something about the EU zealots distracting their broadcasts. It looks like the BBC has a first floor stage to broadcast from but Sky have them prancing around their discussions
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    No now available at 1.4!

    What is going on?

    Odds are completely out of line with the debate on here and the entire narrative.
  • This is an interesting story (though sadly with the standard journalistic inability to use the correct scientific units).

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/26/arsenal-battery-power-emirates-stadium

    Suggests that grid-scale batteries to smooth out the renewable supply are beginning to make economic sense.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    edited November 2018
    MikeL said:

    No now available at 1.4!

    What is going on?

    Odds are completely out of line with the debate on here and the entire narrative.

    It might be huge. The real question is what happens to the odds after the first vote crashes to defeat. Whats the 'tipping point' for the odds to lengthen/shorten.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712

    MikeL said:

    Everyone seems certain the vote is going to be lost by miles.

    So how come you can back No at 1.35 on Betfair - and you can bet a substantial sum (over £2,000) right now at between 1.3 and 1.35.

    Well, that market includes a second vote as well (provided it is in 2018).
    I know - but 2nd vote surely likely to be in the New Year - to turn a No into a Yes within a few days would be a very tall order.
  • MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Everyone seems certain the vote is going to be lost by miles.

    So how come you can back No at 1.35 on Betfair - and you can bet a substantial sum (over £2,000) right now at between 1.3 and 1.35.

    Well, that market includes a second vote as well (provided it is in 2018).
    I know - but 2nd vote surely likely to be in the New Year - to turn a No into a Yes within a few days would be a very tall order.
    I would have thought that was the more likely timing as well.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    Just a point but when are the broadcasters on College Green going to do something about the EU zealots distracting their broadcasts. It looks like the BBC has a first floor stage to broadcast from but Sky have them prancing around their discussions

    The wankers have elongated their poles to reach the BBC stage.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Everyone seems certain the vote is going to be lost by miles.

    So how come you can back No at 1.35 on Betfair - and you can bet a substantial sum (over £2,000) right now at between 1.3 and 1.35.

    Well, that market includes a second vote as well (provided it is in 2018).
    I know - but 2nd vote surely likely to be in the New Year - to turn a No into a Yes within a few days would be a very tall order.
    I would have thought that was the more likely timing as well.
    Events will likely move very fast post-loss of the deal. But I can't imagine they'd move that fast.

    Even if it were May's plan B and she stated in the immediate aftermath it was now her intention to seek a new referendum it wouldn't be enough.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Xenon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Xenon said:

    Xenon said:

    Sean_F said:


    None of which refutes my argument that "lots of people favour No Deal.". It is quite possible that No Deal would win a referendum, starting from that base.

    As always, though, you need to distinguish 'no deal' from the very different 'orderly transition to WTO terms'. Many people don't seem to understand the difference, and some of those who do (or should) often seem deliberately to conflate them.
    If we're just going to WTO terms anyway, then what are we giving them £39bn for exactly? It was sold to the electorate as part of our leverage to get a decent trade deal.
    We are paying so that they gently remove the gun we've pointed at our heads.
    Perhaps explain what they are giving us in exchange for the money without using a metaphor.

    As I am starting to suspect that it's nothing.
    The payment is mainly for the two years of orderly transition :

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/eu-divorce-bill
    The deal in December did not contain an exact figure, though at the time, UK officials estimated a potential bill of £35–39 billion (bn).

    The UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) set out detailed estimates of what the UK would pay in its Economic and Fiscal Outlook report, published alongside the Chancellor’s Spring Statement. That set out a total bill of €41.4bn (£37.1bn), extending out to 2064 as pension liabilities fall due.

    But it also makes clear that around half consist of payments the UK will make during the transition phase. The OBR estimates net payments under the financial settlement of €18.5bn (£16.4bn) in 2019 and 2020, during the transition, followed by net payments of €7.6bn in 2021, €5.8bn (2022) €3.1bn (2023) and €1.7bn (2024) before falling away to €0.2bn in 2028. The liabilities, net of assets, that then remain to be paid amount to a total of €2.7bn over the period 2021–45....
    But both sides want an "orderly transition", the EU aren't conceding this as it is in their best interests too.

    So we're giving them £39bn in exchange for something they wanted anyway. It's a complete failure in negotiation.
    I believe a significant portion of the money is for our membership fees during the transition. To withold money legally due would seriously damage the country's already shaky international credibility for financial rectitude.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Piers Corbyn. Everyone's favourite "long-term weather forecaster".

    Piers Corbyn is presumably what happens when you splice the DNA of Jeremy Corbyn and Piers Morgan into some horrific cronenburgian chimera.
    +1
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    May has been remarkably good at maintaining the mandate of the referendum. She will finally put an end to two decades of mass migration. The billions we sent to French farmers will now go on domestic priorities. Whether murderers can vote or laws preventing human trafficking will stand will now be decided here in this country. And we can still sign trade deals on services, which cover 80% of our economy. Meanwhile, there will be no disruption to Northern Ireland and we can maintain JIT supply chains.

    It's a great deal and will make Brexit a success, address the most inflammatory issues in British politics (Brexit and immigration) and set us up for a great next decade. The alternative is a Momentum Government with Corbyn unquestioned status in the Labour Party. A far left anti-business anti-growth regime maximising the damage of a cliff edge Brexit. Plus open doors immigration on a scale unseen before, as Corbyn years down even the restraints we have on non-EU immigration. This won't lead to people craving common sense conservatism or moderate social democracy. It will set us on a cause for ever more polarization and extremism.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    edited November 2018

    Anazina said:

    TudorRose said:

    Anazina said:

    TudorRose said:

    Anazina said:

    Don't blog much about current events, but here's one on the demented idea to abolish real money:
    http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/2018/11/why-moving-to-digital-only-is-bad-thing_26.html

    Er, no. That bird has flown. You are simply wrong.

    Cash is:

    • wasteful
    • environmentally unsound
    • prone to fraud and theft
    • inconvenient
    • dirty
    • heavy
    • expensive to administer

    As for your very weak anecdote about the banks going down and cash saving the day, what percentage of the population carry enough cash with them to survive more than a few hours do you think?

    Cash is going only one way, I'm afraid.

    As for your equally bonkers post about video games, er no. PlayStation prices vary, often in line with what the market will bear, so it's very often possible to find great games for less than the physical second hand price.

    Games on DVD just create ye more plastic and landfill. We need to get used to paying for services, not throwaway physical things that take up space and create rubbish.

    Your third bullet point is clearly wrong. Electronic systems are equally prone to fraud and theft. In fact it is more likely to result in a higher amount being stolen because (generally) people only hold a 'survivable' amount of cash in person whilst a fraudster getting into your bank account electronically could steal the whole lot.
    Next time you hear of gangsters paying for services via BACS let me know.
    Actually the amount of BACS fraud is legion. This is why there is a new name check safeguard being implemented next year.
    A check that is impossible in cash trades.

    Cash is dead.
    I'll wait until the kids doing 'Penny for the Guy' offer a contactless card reader to passing punters before declaring the end of cash!
    That was my easy way of getting rid of them, when I lived in Newcastle. "Sorry kids, I don't carry cash. Bye."
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Theo said:

    May has been remarkably good at maintaining the mandate of the referendum. She will finally put an end to two decades of mass migration. The billions we sent to French farmers will now go on domestic priorities. Whether murderers can vote or laws preventing human trafficking will stand will now be decided here in this country. And we can still sign trade deals on services, which cover 80% of our economy. Meanwhile, there will be no disruption to Northern Ireland and we can maintain JIT supply chains.

    It's a great deal and will make Brexit a success, address the most inflammatory issues in British politics (Brexit and immigration) and set us up for a great next decade. The alternative is a Momentum Government with Corbyn unquestioned status in the Labour Party. A far left anti-business anti-growth regime maximising the damage of a cliff edge Brexit. Plus open doors immigration on a scale unseen before, as Corbyn years down even the restraints we have on non-EU immigration. This won't lead to people craving common sense conservatism or moderate social democracy. It will set us on a cause for ever more polarization and extremism.

    Amber, please. This is not a place for your Theresa May fanfiction.
  • MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Everyone seems certain the vote is going to be lost by miles.

    So how come you can back No at 1.35 on Betfair - and you can bet a substantial sum (over £2,000) right now at between 1.3 and 1.35.

    Well, that market includes a second vote as well (provided it is in 2018).
    I know - but 2nd vote surely likely to be in the New Year - to turn a No into a Yes within a few days would be a very tall order.
    I would have thought that was the more likely timing as well.
    Events will likely move very fast post-loss of the deal. But I can't imagine they'd move that fast.

    Even if it were May's plan B and she stated in the immediate aftermath it was now her intention to seek a new referendum it wouldn't be enough.
    Depending on the scale of the defeat, you need one of: some cosmetic changes to the deal; some real changes to the deal; or the clock to tick down. The last of these looks most likely.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Just a point but when are the broadcasters on College Green going to do something about the EU zealots distracting their broadcasts. It looks like the BBC has a first floor stage to broadcast from but Sky have them prancing around their discussions

    https://twitter.com/josephmdurso/status/1067047686325583873
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    FF43 said:

    The Withdrawal Agreement is essentially fixed, but the future arrangement that will take its place is wide open. The outcomes could include rejoining the EU or even not leaving in the first place. All of the options require EU consent so there's no reason to reflect a preferred path just because the EU hasn't agreed yet. Mrs May disengenuously pretends her outcome is the only one. Her many opponents should call her out on that if they think they have a better plan.

    They don't have a better plan, that is exactly the point.
    They don't have any worse plans either. Maybe that is also the point.
    No it isn't - they lack an alternative plan. Ever since before the referendum I was one of many on here who asked Leave voters how they expected Brexit to happen and on what terms - the only answer ever given was that this was not thier task but the job of the government of the day. They never had a plan. That is the scandal. T. May has done the best job given the appalling mess she took on. Of course she bears some blame for this mess but there are plenty others sniping from the sidelines who are as responsible and have been from day one.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325

    Pulpstar said:

    The paradoxes of a second referendum remain. We won't get a second referendum unless Brexit collapses and if Brexit collapses a second referendum won't be an immediate priority. Brexit will only collapse under the pressure of the A50 deadline and political failure. But by the time we get to the A50 deadline to precipitate a second referendum there won't be time for a second referendum.

    A second referendum requires an extension to Article 50, and that requires the unanimous consent of the EU27. They would probably grant it if they thought there was a reasonably good chance of the referendum resolving things, although we can't be sure, and it's not unlikely that one or more of the countries would seek to use it as leverage (on Gibraltar or fish, for example, as has been suggested). And then there are all the issues about what the referendum options should be, and no guarantee that the referendum would produce the 'right' or indeed any clear result.

    All in all, the whole thing is the biggest mess imaginable, and the only way out of the mess is the one which MPs seem very likely to reject.
    Remain?
    Without another referendum ?

    That really would be a democratic abomination.
    I think we've already pretty comprehensively exhausted the idea that Parliament truly cares what the electorate think.
    Apart from the only bit which matters 52/48.
    May and her Whitehall functionaries have, to the maximum extent possible allowed under law, along with the combined weight of the Brussels mandarinate, conspired to lock Britain into an eternal BRINO thus "respecting" the will of the people only in the most trivial sense.
    Complete crap. Freedom of movement, 80% of our economy, criminal justice and our billions of fees all returned to UK control. How is that possibly just a name change?

    I can't work out if people claiming BINO are deliberately lying or completely stupid. Perhaps they are merely Russian trolls, actively trying to hurt the UK.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Scott_P said:

    Just a point but when are the broadcasters on College Green going to do something about the EU zealots distracting their broadcasts. It looks like the BBC has a first floor stage to broadcast from but Sky have them prancing around their discussions

    https://twitter.com/josephmdurso/status/1067047686325583873
    The most curious of all their placards is the one asking "Brexit, is it worth it".
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    MikeL said:

    Everyone seems certain the vote is going to be lost by miles.

    So how come you can back No at 1.35 on Betfair - and you can bet a substantial sum (over £2,000) right now at between 1.3 and 1.35.

    Presumably because of the possibility of a combination of events: A) Chunk of Labour rebels bought off with some policy commitment, and B) The whips hard at work.

    It's hard to see how that bridges such a large gap tbh .... but at the same time Labour backbenchers are not exactly too bothered about following Corbyn's line, and the Tory whips have been pretty effective the last 2yrs.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Everyone seems certain the vote is going to be lost by miles.

    So how come you can back No at 1.35 on Betfair - and you can bet a substantial sum (over £2,000) right now at between 1.3 and 1.35.

    Well, that market includes a second vote as well (provided it is in 2018).
    I know - but 2nd vote surely likely to be in the New Year - to turn a No into a Yes within a few days would be a very tall order.
    I would have thought that was the more likely timing as well.
    Events will likely move very fast post-loss of the deal. But I can't imagine they'd move that fast.

    Even if it were May's plan B and she stated in the immediate aftermath it was now her intention to seek a new referendum it wouldn't be enough.
    Depending on the scale of the defeat, you need one of: some cosmetic changes to the deal; some real changes to the deal; or the clock to tick down. The last of these looks most likely.
    M'lud, do we find 2-5 a big price ?
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    Pulpstar said:

    Oppostion to May has gone full horseshoe.

    Who'd have thought a #FBPEer would be singing the praises of Anne Marie Norris ?!

    https://twitter.com/petersturdgess/status/1066613882314244096

    Everyone voting against the deal bears full responsibility for the economic damage that follows. Parliament is full of charlatans and toads, playing their pathetic partisan games with the wellbeing of British lives.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    justin124 said:

    She is talking gibberish re-VNOC territory. The Opposition can table such a vote at any time on matters totally unrelated to Brexit.
    She seemingly has even less of a grasp of the British Constitution than @Mortimer and @Charles, and that is really saying something.
  • Pulpstar said:

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Everyone seems certain the vote is going to be lost by miles.

    So how come you can back No at 1.35 on Betfair - and you can bet a substantial sum (over £2,000) right now at between 1.3 and 1.35.

    Well, that market includes a second vote as well (provided it is in 2018).
    I know - but 2nd vote surely likely to be in the New Year - to turn a No into a Yes within a few days would be a very tall order.
    I would have thought that was the more likely timing as well.
    Events will likely move very fast post-loss of the deal. But I can't imagine they'd move that fast.

    Even if it were May's plan B and she stated in the immediate aftermath it was now her intention to seek a new referendum it wouldn't be enough.
    Depending on the scale of the defeat, you need one of: some cosmetic changes to the deal; some real changes to the deal; or the clock to tick down. The last of these looks most likely.
    M'lud, do we find 2-5 a big price ?
    Not especially, though on balance it's probably value. I expect the/a deal in the end but I can easily see that being in January.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746
    Theo said:

    May has been remarkably good at maintaining the mandate of the referendum. She will finally put an end to two decades of mass migration.

    Most of which was from outside the EU...

    As for free movement, when will it end? You can’t say because this deal doesn’t tell us what the future relationship will be.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Scott_P said:

    Just a point but when are the broadcasters on College Green going to do something about the EU zealots distracting their broadcasts. It looks like the BBC has a first floor stage to broadcast from but Sky have them prancing around their discussions

    https://twitter.com/josephmdurso/status/1067047686325583873
    Scott - I wondered where you'd disappeared to.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    felix said:

    FF43 said:

    The Withdrawal Agreement is essentially fixed, but the future arrangement that will take its place is wide open. The outcomes could include rejoining the EU or even not leaving in the first place. All of the options require EU consent so there's no reason to reflect a preferred path just because the EU hasn't agreed yet. Mrs May disengenuously pretends her outcome is the only one. Her many opponents should call her out on that if they think they have a better plan.

    They don't have a better plan, that is exactly the point.
    They don't have any worse plans either. Maybe that is also the point.
    No it isn't - they lack an alternative plan. Ever since before the referendum I was one of many on here who asked Leave voters how they expected Brexit to happen and on what terms - the only answer ever given was that this was not thier task but the job of the government of the day. They never had a plan. That is the scandal. T. May has done the best job given the appalling mess she took on. Of course she bears some blame for this mess but there are plenty others sniping from the sidelines who are as responsible and have been from day one.
    Reminder of some of May's Greatest Fuckups of 2016-2018:

    1) Invoking article 50 before knowing where she wanted to end up
    2) Calling and losing an unnecessary general election whilst the clock was ticking
    3) having lost her majority, failed to build any cross party consensus in Parliament
    4) Agreed to the EU's ludicrous scheduling of negotiations
    5) Agreed to the BACKSTOP. This is the big one, the error of her career.
    6) Wasted an entire summer trying to get the EU to swallow checkers
    7) Sold out the UK fishing industry
    8) Sold out Gibraltar
    9) Agreed to a £40bn divorce bill in exchange for basically nothing
    10) Alienated both remainers and leavers at the same time, using opposite arguments.
    11) Called a meaningful vote she was doomed to lose by a humiliating margin
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746
    Theo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Oppostion to May has gone full horseshoe.

    Who'd have thought a #FBPEer would be singing the praises of Anne Marie Norris ?!

    https://twitter.com/petersturdgess/status/1066613882314244096

    Everyone voting against the deal bears full responsibility for the economic damage that follows. Parliament is full of charlatans and toads, playing their pathetic partisan games with the wellbeing of British lives.
    I hope Robbie Gibb is paying you well for posting this drivel.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    The paradoxes of a second referendum remain. We won't get a second referendum unless Brexit collapses and if Brexit collapses a second referendum won't be an immediate priority. Brexit will only collapse under the pressure of the A50 deadline and political failure. But by the time we get to the A50 deadline to precipitate a second referendum there won't be time for a second referendum.

    A second referendum requires an extension to Article 50, and that requires the unanimous consent of the EU27. They would probably grant it if they thought there was a reasonably good chance of the referendum resolving things, although we can't be sure, and it's not unlikely that one or more of the countries would seek to use it as leverage (on Gibraltar or fish, for example, as has been suggested). And then there are all the issues about what the referendum options should be, and no guarantee that the referendum would produce the 'right' or indeed any clear result.

    All in all, the whole thing is the biggest mess imaginable, and the only way out of the mess is the one which MPs seem very likely to reject.
    I agree with your first three points. Your fourth point that we have to accept May's deal because May has blocked all the exits save that one then set the building on fire ... provokes a visceral rage I've never felt in my political life. I won't be alone.
    The exit was blocked by every MP who voted to trigger Article 50, not just Theresa May.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    felix said:

    FF43 said:

    The Withdrawal Agreement is essentially fixed, but the future arrangement that will take its place is wide open. The outcomes could include rejoining the EU or even not leaving in the first place. All of the options require EU consent so there's no reason to reflect a preferred path just because the EU hasn't agreed yet. Mrs May disengenuously pretends her outcome is the only one. Her many opponents should call her out on that if they think they have a better plan.

    They don't have a better plan, that is exactly the point.
    They don't have any worse plans either. Maybe that is also the point.
    No it isn't - they lack an alternative plan. Ever since before the referendum I was one of many on here who asked Leave voters how they expected Brexit to happen and on what terms - the only answer ever given was that this was not thier task but the job of the government of the day. They never had a plan. That is the scandal. T. May has done the best job given the appalling mess she took on. Of course she bears some blame for this mess but there are plenty others sniping from the sidelines who are as responsible and have been from day one.
    Yep, fair comment. I find myself agreeing with you regularly these days Felix! (I know how much that scares you!)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Norm said:

    Scott - I wondered where you'd disappeared to.

    Waving my pole, as usual...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    RoyalBlue said:

    He really is. It’s embarrassing.

    The conduct of our politicians since 2016 makes me wonder if jury service for the Commons would give better results than election.

    Jury service from a random group of chimpanzees?

  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    @Theo

    Are you on the government payroll? I'd bet a bollock you were.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325

    Theo said:

    May has been remarkably good at maintaining the mandate of the referendum. She will finally put an end to two decades of mass migration.

    Most of which was from outside the EU...

    As for free movement, when will it end? You can’t say because this deal doesn’t tell us what the future relationship will be.
    Non-EU migration is now virtually entirely highly skilled. That is not the case with the cockle pickers and beggars from Romania and Bulgaria.

    Free movement will end at the end of the implementation period.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Theo said:

    May has been remarkably good at maintaining the mandate of the referendum. She will finally put an end to two decades of mass migration. The billions we sent to French farmers will now go on domestic priorities. Whether murderers can vote or laws preventing human trafficking will stand will now be decided here in this country. And we can still sign trade deals on services, which cover 80% of our economy. Meanwhile, there will be no disruption to Northern Ireland and we can maintain JIT supply chains.

    It's a great deal and will make Brexit a success, address the most inflammatory issues in British politics (Brexit and immigration) and set us up for a great next decade. The alternative is a Momentum Government with Corbyn unquestioned status in the Labour Party. A far left anti-business anti-growth regime maximising the damage of a cliff edge Brexit. Plus open doors immigration on a scale unseen before, as Corbyn years down even the restraints we have on non-EU immigration. This won't lead to people craving common sense conservatism or moderate social democracy. It will set us on a cause for ever more polarization and extremism.

    I think that is about right.

    Given where we are, it is as I mentioned earlier, the best deal possible. As for those voting against bearing responsibility for any chaos, however, and here I mean the opposition, I will still reserve the right of the Labour Party to oppose anything the govt brings forward, as is their remit.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Everyone seems certain the vote is going to be lost by miles.

    So how come you can back No at 1.35 on Betfair - and you can bet a substantial sum (over £2,000) right now at between 1.3 and 1.35.

    Well, that market includes a second vote as well (provided it is in 2018).
    I know - but 2nd vote surely likely to be in the New Year - to turn a No into a Yes within a few days would be a very tall order.
    I would have thought that was the more likely timing as well.
    Events will likely move very fast post-loss of the deal. But I can't imagine they'd move that fast.

    Even if it were May's plan B and she stated in the immediate aftermath it was now her intention to seek a new referendum it wouldn't be enough.
    Depending on the scale of the defeat, you need one of: some cosmetic changes to the deal; some real changes to the deal; or the clock to tick down. The last of these looks most likely.
    Personally, I'd leave the meaningful vote to January. Hold their feet to the fire a bit longer.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    edited November 2018

    This is an interesting story (though sadly with the standard journalistic inability to use the correct scientific units).

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/26/arsenal-battery-power-emirates-stadium

    Suggests that grid-scale batteries to smooth out the renewable supply are beginning to make economic sense.

    Not as much economic sense as oil does at $60 a barrel.
  • Theo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Oppostion to May has gone full horseshoe.

    Who'd have thought a #FBPEer would be singing the praises of Anne Marie Norris ?!

    https://twitter.com/petersturdgess/status/1066613882314244096

    Everyone voting against the deal bears full responsibility for the economic damage that follows. Parliament is full of charlatans and toads, playing their pathetic partisan games with the wellbeing of British lives.
    As you will appreciate from the thread header, I basically agree with this.

    It's still a shit deal.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Theo said:

    Theo said:

    May has been remarkably good at maintaining the mandate of the referendum. She will finally put an end to two decades of mass migration.

    Most of which was from outside the EU...

    As for free movement, when will it end? You can’t say because this deal doesn’t tell us what the future relationship will be.
    Non-EU migration is now virtually entirely highly skilled. That is not the case with the cockle pickers and beggars from Romania and Bulgaria.

    Free movement will end at the end of the implementation period.
    The way you slip into unpleasantly blaming immigrants for all your own policy failures is straight out of May's very tarnished copybook.

    There's no need for that kind of unpleasant racist abuse here.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Theo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Oppostion to May has gone full horseshoe.

    Who'd have thought a #FBPEer would be singing the praises of Anne Marie Norris ?!

    https://twitter.com/petersturdgess/status/1066613882314244096

    Everyone voting against the deal bears full responsibility for the economic damage that follows. Parliament is full of charlatans and toads, playing their pathetic partisan games with the wellbeing of British lives.
    Games invented, nurtured and imposed on the country by the headbangers in the Tory Party aided and abetted by the supine arrogance of so called leadership.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Sean_F said:

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Everyone seems certain the vote is going to be lost by miles.

    So how come you can back No at 1.35 on Betfair - and you can bet a substantial sum (over £2,000) right now at between 1.3 and 1.35.

    Well, that market includes a second vote as well (provided it is in 2018).
    I know - but 2nd vote surely likely to be in the New Year - to turn a No into a Yes within a few days would be a very tall order.
    I would have thought that was the more likely timing as well.
    Events will likely move very fast post-loss of the deal. But I can't imagine they'd move that fast.

    Even if it were May's plan B and she stated in the immediate aftermath it was now her intention to seek a new referendum it wouldn't be enough.
    Depending on the scale of the defeat, you need one of: some cosmetic changes to the deal; some real changes to the deal; or the clock to tick down. The last of these looks most likely.
    Personally, I'd leave the meaningful vote to January. Hold their feet to the fire a bit longer.
    Leave the Tory backbenches soaking all christmas in their fiercely anti-deal constituency parties?

    That oughta do it.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    felix said:

    Xenon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Xenon said:

    Xenon said:

    Sean_F said:


    None of which refutes my argument that "lots of people favour No Deal.". It is quite possible that No Deal would win a referendum, starting from that base.

    As always, though, you need to distinguish 'no deal' from the very different 'orderly transition to WTO terms'. Many people don't seem to understand the difference, and some of those who do (or should) often seem deliberately to conflate them.
    If we're just going to WTO terms anyway, then what are we giving them £39bn for exactly? It was sold to the electorate as part of our leverage to get a decent trade deal.
    We are paying so that they gently remove the gun we've pointed at our heads.
    Perhaps explain what they are giving us in exchange for the money without using a metaphor.

    As I am starting to suspect that it's nothing.
    The payment is mainly for the two years of orderly transition :

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/eu-divorce-bill
    The deal in December did not contain an exact figure, though at the time, UK officials estimated a potential bill of £35–39 billion (bn).

    The UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) set out detailed estimates of what the UK would pay in its Economic and Fiscal Outlook report, published alongside the Chancellor’s Spring Statement. That set out a total bill of €41.4bn (£37.1bn), extending out to 2064 as pension liabilities fall due.

    But it also makes clear that around half consist of payments the UK will make during the transition phase. The OBR estimates net payments under the financial settlement of €18.5bn (£16.4bn) in 2019 and 2020, during the transition, followed by net payments of €7.6bn in 2021, €5.8bn (2022) €3.1bn (2023) and €1.7bn (2024) before falling away to €0.2bn in 2028. The liabilities, net of assets, that then remain to be paid amount to a total of €2.7bn over the period 2021–45....
    But both sides want an "orderly transition", the EU aren't conceding this as it is in their best interests too.

    So we're giving them £39bn in exchange for something they wanted anyway. It's a complete failure in negotiation.
    I believe a significant portion of the money is for our membership fees during the transition. To withold money legally due would seriously damage the country's already shaky international credibility for financial rectitude.
    I'm sure if we were a net recipient the EU wouldn't insist on us taking the money during the transition.

    Do we still get to vote on things during the process as we're still members?

  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Theo said:

    Theo said:

    May has been remarkably good at maintaining the mandate of the referendum. She will finally put an end to two decades of mass migration.

    Most of which was from outside the EU...

    As for free movement, when will it end? You can’t say because this deal doesn’t tell us what the future relationship will be.
    Non-EU migration is now virtually entirely highly skilled. That is not the case with the cockle pickers and beggars from Romania and Bulgaria.

    Free movement will end at the end of the implementation period.
    I don't come on here to read racist bilge. Do one you bigoted twat.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325

    @Theo

    Are you on the government payroll? I'd bet a bollock you were.

    No. Just because I have the basic level of knowledge of UK politics to be able to spell "Chequers" doesn't mean I am closely involved. I have been in the private sector for 15 years.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    Sean_F said:

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Everyone seems certain the vote is going to be lost by miles.

    So how come you can back No at 1.35 on Betfair - and you can bet a substantial sum (over £2,000) right now at between 1.3 and 1.35.

    Well, that market includes a second vote as well (provided it is in 2018).
    I know - but 2nd vote surely likely to be in the New Year - to turn a No into a Yes within a few days would be a very tall order.
    I would have thought that was the more likely timing as well.
    Events will likely move very fast post-loss of the deal. But I can't imagine they'd move that fast.

    Even if it were May's plan B and she stated in the immediate aftermath it was now her intention to seek a new referendum it wouldn't be enough.
    Depending on the scale of the defeat, you need one of: some cosmetic changes to the deal; some real changes to the deal; or the clock to tick down. The last of these looks most likely.
    Personally, I'd leave the meaningful vote to January. Hold their feet to the fire a bit longer.
    Leave the Tory backbenches soaking all christmas in their fiercely anti-deal constituency parties?

    That oughta do it.
    Like Reek, they'll get there in the end.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    Theo said:

    Theo said:

    May has been remarkably good at maintaining the mandate of the referendum. She will finally put an end to two decades of mass migration.

    Most of which was from outside the EU...

    As for free movement, when will it end? You can’t say because this deal doesn’t tell us what the future relationship will be.
    Non-EU migration is now virtually entirely highly skilled. That is not the case with the cockle pickers and beggars from Romania and Bulgaria.

    Free movement will end at the end of the implementation period.
    Last time I looked at the stats the EU immigrants were much more likely to be skilled than non-EU.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Good to see Maggie on the (very) long list for the £50 note:

    https://tinyurl.com/y9z4uz66
  • The Guardian has some interesting figures on Pub closures. I link to it just because it's striking how often recent Labour campaign videos have featured rows of empty shops.Trumpian cultural conservativism about the decline of small towns is definitely part of their strategy to get to 326.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/26/uk-pub-closures-financial-crisis-birmingham-ons-figures

    The white population in Birmingham fell by 10% (66,000) between 2001 and 2011 while the Asian population grew by 90,000. There appears to be a similar trend in other boroughs mentioned as losing a high proportion of pubs in the article.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325

    Theo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Oppostion to May has gone full horseshoe.

    Who'd have thought a #FBPEer would be singing the praises of Anne Marie Norris ?!

    https://twitter.com/petersturdgess/status/1066613882314244096

    Everyone voting against the deal bears full responsibility for the economic damage that follows. Parliament is full of charlatans and toads, playing their pathetic partisan games with the wellbeing of British lives.
    Games invented, nurtured and imposed on the country by the headbangers in the Tory Party aided and abetted by the supine arrogance of so called leadership.
    The referendum was supported by a majority in parliament and an even bigger majority of the public. We now have a deal that supposedly couldn't be done, maintaining economic access while controlling immigration, saving billions in fees and making UK courts sovereign. Remainers hate this so they are trying to sabotage it from being implemented.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    tlg86 said:

    Good to see Maggie on the (very) long list for the £50 note:

    https://tinyurl.com/y9z4uz66

    The chances of Maggie on the £50 note are about the same as the WA getting through parliament at first time of asking.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    Xenon said:

    Theo said:

    Theo said:

    May has been remarkably good at maintaining the mandate of the referendum. She will finally put an end to two decades of mass migration.

    Most of which was from outside the EU...

    As for free movement, when will it end? You can’t say because this deal doesn’t tell us what the future relationship will be.
    Non-EU migration is now virtually entirely highly skilled. That is not the case with the cockle pickers and beggars from Romania and Bulgaria.

    Free movement will end at the end of the implementation period.
    Last time I looked at the stats the EU immigrants were much more likely to be skilled than non-EU.
    Because of immigrants coming in 1948-2010. Not the current intake.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Theo said:

    Theo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Oppostion to May has gone full horseshoe.

    Who'd have thought a #FBPEer would be singing the praises of Anne Marie Norris ?!

    https://twitter.com/petersturdgess/status/1066613882314244096

    Everyone voting against the deal bears full responsibility for the economic damage that follows. Parliament is full of charlatans and toads, playing their pathetic partisan games with the wellbeing of British lives.
    Games invented, nurtured and imposed on the country by the headbangers in the Tory Party aided and abetted by the supine arrogance of so called leadership.
    The referendum was supported by a majority in parliament and an even bigger majority of the public. We now have a deal that supposedly couldn't be done, maintaining economic access while controlling immigration, saving billions in fees and making UK courts sovereign. Remainers hate this so they are trying to sabotage it from being implemented.
    So if the deal is so good why are Tory MPs queuing up to rubbish it? Even some cabinet ministers have been strangely silent in the last couple of days.
  • I see that the SDLP have said that they support Theresa May's deal. This is an example of how time could gradually bring more, albeit reluctant, support for the deal and reverse the current impression that it's failure is inevitable. It is, I think, why the ERG launched their failed coup, as a device to prevent momentum to build up in favour of the deal.

    Unfortunately for the PM, the SDLP lost their three Westminster MPs in the 2017GE that she called and so this adds zero votes for the deal in the Commons.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    Anazina said:

    Theo said:

    Theo said:

    May has been remarkably good at maintaining the mandate of the referendum. She will finally put an end to two decades of mass migration.

    Most of which was from outside the EU...

    As for free movement, when will it end? You can’t say because this deal doesn’t tell us what the future relationship will be.
    Non-EU migration is now virtually entirely highly skilled. That is not the case with the cockle pickers and beggars from Romania and Bulgaria.

    Free movement will end at the end of the implementation period.
    I don't come on here to read racist bilge. Do one you bigoted twat.
    Accurately describing some of the occupations of EU migrants that aren't possible under non-EU migration or the future setup we will have under May's deal is not "racist". That is doubly so when I am favourably comparing the non-white immigrants to the white immigrants. You don't understand basic words, so go away and take a dictionary with you before coming back.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    The Guardian has some interesting figures on Pub closures. I link to it just because it's striking how often recent Labour campaign videos have featured rows of empty shops.Trumpian cultural conservativism about the decline of small towns is definitely part of their strategy to get to 326.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/26/uk-pub-closures-financial-crisis-birmingham-ons-figures

    The white population in Birmingham fell by 10% (66,000) between 2001 and 2011 while the Asian population grew by 90,000. There appears to be a similar trend in other boroughs mentioned as losing a high proportion of pubs in the article.
    It could also have something to do with how bad the pubs in Birmingham are, and by that I mean in the city centre. It really is embarrassing how poor the pubs are in the so-called Second City. Just utter rubbish from my experience.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325

    Theo said:

    Theo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Oppostion to May has gone full horseshoe.

    Who'd have thought a #FBPEer would be singing the praises of Anne Marie Norris ?!

    https://twitter.com/petersturdgess/status/1066613882314244096

    Everyone voting against the deal bears full responsibility for the economic damage that follows. Parliament is full of charlatans and toads, playing their pathetic partisan games with the wellbeing of British lives.
    Games invented, nurtured and imposed on the country by the headbangers in the Tory Party aided and abetted by the supine arrogance of so called leadership.
    The referendum was supported by a majority in parliament and an even bigger majority of the public. We now have a deal that supposedly couldn't be done, maintaining economic access while controlling immigration, saving billions in fees and making UK courts sovereign. Remainers hate this so they are trying to sabotage it from being implemented.
    So if the deal is so good why are Tory MPs queuing up to rubbish it? Even some cabinet ministers have been strangely silent in the last couple of days.
    Because they are doing their best to negotiate behind the scenes to bring people on board without ruffling feathers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Theo said:

    Theo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Oppostion to May has gone full horseshoe.

    Who'd have thought a #FBPEer would be singing the praises of Anne Marie Norris ?!

    https://twitter.com/petersturdgess/status/1066613882314244096

    Everyone voting against the deal bears full responsibility for the economic damage that follows. Parliament is full of charlatans and toads, playing their pathetic partisan games with the wellbeing of British lives.
    Games invented, nurtured and imposed on the country by the headbangers in the Tory Party aided and abetted by the supine arrogance of so called leadership.
    The referendum was supported by a majority in parliament and an even bigger majority of the public. We now have a deal that supposedly couldn't be done, maintaining economic access while controlling immigration, saving billions in fees and making UK courts sovereign. Remainers hate this so they are trying to sabotage it from being implemented.
    So if the deal is so good why are Tory MPs queuing up to rubbish it? Even some cabinet ministers have been strangely silent in the last couple of days.
    Plenty in parliament who want to show their magnificent anti/pro Brexit feathered credentials.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDvFdj-pFMc
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325

    Theo said:

    Theo said:

    May has been remarkably good at maintaining the mandate of the referendum. She will finally put an end to two decades of mass migration.

    Most of which was from outside the EU...

    As for free movement, when will it end? You can’t say because this deal doesn’t tell us what the future relationship will be.
    Non-EU migration is now virtually entirely highly skilled. That is not the case with the cockle pickers and beggars from Romania and Bulgaria.

    Free movement will end at the end of the implementation period.
    The way you slip into unpleasantly blaming immigrants for all your own policy failures is straight out of May's very tarnished copybook.

    There's no need for that kind of unpleasant racist abuse here.
    I am not blaming immigrants for anything. I am just pointing out that some immigrants are a net cost to the UK and a sensible immigration policy would restrict their intake. That is possible under May's deal, but not under Remaining nor a Corbyn government.

    As a tip, screaming "racism" to silence debate on immigration stopped working in about 2005.
  • tlg86 said:

    Good to see Maggie on the (very) long list for the £50 note:

    https://tinyurl.com/y9z4uz66

    She won't, but if she was selected, I await the nutter elements of those that hate everything about Thatcher to take to burning the notes in protest.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    The whole process has been bedevilled by wishful thinking.

    1. Brexiters who think you can have both frictionless trade with the EU and total freedom to diverge from EU regulations

    2. Remainers who thought that Jeremy Corbyn was one of them.

    3. Conservatives who thought they could pretend to support Brexit in the belief it would never happen, but would assist their leadership prospects

    4. Remainers who thought they could vote for A50, but still stop Brexit.

    5. Cabinet ministers who persuaded themselves that Theresa May didn't mean it when she asked for a transition period and agreed to a backstop. Perhaps they were asleep when these issues were discussed in Cabinet.

    6. Anyone who thinks the EU is desperate to give us a superb deal, but for the traitor in 10 Downing Street.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325

    I see that the SDLP have said that they support Theresa May's deal. This is an example of how time could gradually bring more, albeit reluctant, support for the deal and reverse the current impression that it's failure is inevitable. It is, I think, why the ERG launched their failed coup, as a device to prevent momentum to build up in favour of the deal.

    Unfortunately for the PM, the SDLP lost their three Westminster MPs in the 2017GE that she called and so this adds zero votes for the deal in the Commons.

    The SDLP are very experienced in having to deal with loons, zealots and showboaters from two sides.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sean_F said:

    The whole process has been bedevilled by wishful thinking.

    1. Brexiters who think you can have both frictionless trade with the EU and total freedom to diverge from EU regulations

    2. Remainers who thought that Jeremy Corbyn was one of them.

    3. Conservatives who thought they could pretend to support Brexit in the belief it would never happen, but would assist their leadership prospects

    4. Remainers who thought they could vote for A50, but still stop Brexit.

    5. Cabinet ministers who persuaded themselves that Theresa May didn't mean it when she asked for a transition period and agreed to a backstop. Perhaps they were asleep when these issues were discussed in Cabinet.

    6. Anyone who thinks the EU is desperate to give us a superb deal, but for the traitor in 10 Downing Street.

    7. Anyone who voted Leave in the referendum thinking it wouldn't be a total clusterfuck from start to finish
  • Sean_F said:

    The whole process has been bedevilled by wishful thinking.

    1. Brexiters who think you can have both frictionless trade with the EU and total freedom to diverge from EU regulations

    2. Remainers who thought that Jeremy Corbyn was one of them.

    3. Conservatives who thought they could pretend to support Brexit in the belief it would never happen, but would assist their leadership prospects

    4. Remainers who thought they could vote for A50, but still stop Brexit.

    5. Cabinet ministers who persuaded themselves that Theresa May didn't mean it when she asked for a transition period and agreed to a backstop. Perhaps they were asleep when these issues were discussed in Cabinet.

    6. Anyone who thinks the EU is desperate to give us a superb deal, but for the traitor in 10 Downing Street.

    On 4) Ken Clarke emerges with credit - voted against Article 50, but recognising the Will of the House will now vote for the Deal as the least worst option available.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Theo said:

    Theo said:

    Theo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Oppostion to May has gone full horseshoe.

    Who'd have thought a #FBPEer would be singing the praises of Anne Marie Norris ?!

    https://twitter.com/petersturdgess/status/1066613882314244096

    Everyone voting against the deal bears full responsibility for the economic damage that follows. Parliament is full of charlatans and toads, playing their pathetic partisan games with the wellbeing of British lives.
    Games invented, nurtured and imposed on the country by the headbangers in the Tory Party aided and abetted by the supine arrogance of so called leadership.
    The referendum was supported by a majority in parliament and an even bigger majority of the public. We now have a deal that supposedly couldn't be done, maintaining economic access while controlling immigration, saving billions in fees and making UK courts sovereign. Remainers hate this so they are trying to sabotage it from being implemented.
    So if the deal is so good why are Tory MPs queuing up to rubbish it? Even some cabinet ministers have been strangely silent in the last couple of days.
    Because they are doing their best to negotiate behind the scenes to bring people on board without ruffling feathers.
    Or perhaps making sure the knighthood is in the bag before they come out against the deal anyway....
  • Anazina said:

    The Guardian has some interesting figures on Pub closures. I link to it just because it's striking how often recent Labour campaign videos have featured rows of empty shops.Trumpian cultural conservativism about the decline of small towns is definitely part of their strategy to get to 326.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/26/uk-pub-closures-financial-crisis-birmingham-ons-figures

    The white population in Birmingham fell by 10% (66,000) between 2001 and 2011 while the Asian population grew by 90,000. There appears to be a similar trend in other boroughs mentioned as losing a high proportion of pubs in the article.
    It could also have something to do with how bad the pubs in Birmingham are, and by that I mean in the city centre. It really is embarrassing how poor the pubs are in the so-called Second City. Just utter rubbish from my experience.
    City centre - yes, with some notable exceptions

    In the Jewellery Quarter, we have a good dozen pubs that are pretty good (Wolf, Hen and Chickens, Church, Lord Clifden, 1000 Trades, Rock'n'Roll Brewhouse, Rose Villa Tavern, Red Lion, Pig and Tail, bar in the JQ museum, Burning Soul and Jewelers Arms) and another handful I don't go in (Brown Lion, A&R bar, The Button Factory).

    Throw in the many restaurants and I suggest you need to try other places within Birmingham.
  • Theo said:

    I see that the SDLP have said that they support Theresa May's deal. This is an example of how time could gradually bring more, albeit reluctant, support for the deal and reverse the current impression that it's failure is inevitable. It is, I think, why the ERG launched their failed coup, as a device to prevent momentum to build up in favour of the deal.

    Unfortunately for the PM, the SDLP lost their three Westminster MPs in the 2017GE that she called and so this adds zero votes for the deal in the Commons.

    The SDLP are very experienced in having to deal with loons, zealots and showboaters from two sides.
    Yes. Also very experienced in the gratitude of the electorate for making compromises.
  • Sean_F said:

    The whole process has been bedevilled by wishful thinking.

    1. Brexiters who think you can have both frictionless trade with the EU and total freedom to diverge from EU regulations

    2. Remainers who thought that Jeremy Corbyn was one of them.

    3. Conservatives who thought they could pretend to support Brexit in the belief it would never happen, but would assist their leadership prospects

    4. Remainers who thought they could vote for A50, but still stop Brexit.

    5. Cabinet ministers who persuaded themselves that Theresa May didn't mean it when she asked for a transition period and agreed to a backstop. Perhaps they were asleep when these issues were discussed in Cabinet.

    6. Anyone who thinks the EU is desperate to give us a superb deal, but for the traitor in 10 Downing Street.

    On 4) Ken Clarke emerges with credit - voted against Article 50, but recognising the Will of the House will now vote for the Deal as the least worst option available.
    Yes, and he was one of the very few MPs who didn't vote for the referendum either. He has been consistent and principled throughout.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746

    Sean_F said:

    The whole process has been bedevilled by wishful thinking.

    1. Brexiters who think you can have both frictionless trade with the EU and total freedom to diverge from EU regulations

    2. Remainers who thought that Jeremy Corbyn was one of them.

    3. Conservatives who thought they could pretend to support Brexit in the belief it would never happen, but would assist their leadership prospects

    4. Remainers who thought they could vote for A50, but still stop Brexit.

    5. Cabinet ministers who persuaded themselves that Theresa May didn't mean it when she asked for a transition period and agreed to a backstop. Perhaps they were asleep when these issues were discussed in Cabinet.

    6. Anyone who thinks the EU is desperate to give us a superb deal, but for the traitor in 10 Downing Street.

    On 4) Ken Clarke emerges with credit - voted against Article 50, but recognising the Will of the House will now vote for the Deal as the least worst option available.
    That has nothing to do with recognising the will of the people. He just wants to vote against the risk of chaos.
  • Three other thoughts wrt Pub Closures in Brum

    1. In the JQ, last 5 years, there's a net number of pubs opened.

    2. "Although the number of pubs has dramatically fallen, the amount spent in those that are left has remained steady since the previous recession – after taking inflation into account – suggesting the remaining pubs and bars have soaked up the custom from those that have closed."

    This makes some sense.

    3. Similar arguments could be made for Moseley, Digbeth and Harbourne.
This discussion has been closed.