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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : January 30th 2014
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : January 30th 2014
Heanor East on Amber Valley (Lab Defence)
Result of last election for council (2012): Con 24, Lab 21 (Conservative overall majority of 3)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Lab 838 (53%), Con 391 (25%), BNP 284 (18%), Lib Dem 69 (4%)
Candidates duly nominated: Steven Grainger (Con), Sheila Oakes (Lab), Kate Smith (Lib Dem)
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Tottenham Hotspur@SpursOfficial1 min
Four minutes added on at the end, we're chasing the game. 2-3, 90mins.
Priti Patel is the CCHQ ‘attack dog’ backbencher with the nicest smile. Now helping the PM on India and on justice policy, can the globe-trotting Essex MP go the extra mile?
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/92166/priti_please.html
I could see priti patel a future tory leader.
Italian court reinstates guilty verdicts for Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito for murder of Meredith Kercher http://bbc.in/LffAnL
•Jeb Bush 18% (12%) {14%} [11%] (13%) {15%} [12%]
•Chris Christie 17% (23%) {16%} [14%] (13%) {15%} [15%]
•Rand Paul 13% (12%) {16%} [17%] (16%) {14%} [17%]
•Ted Cruz 11% (15%) {15%} [20%] (12%) {7%}
•Paul Ryan 9% (11%) {11%} [10%] (13%) {9%} [12%]
•Marco Rubio 8% (8%) {10%} [10%] (10%) {16%} [21%]
•Scott Walker 7% (6%) [3%]
•Bobby Jindal 5% (4%) {6%} [4%] (4%) {3%} [4%]
•Someone else/Not sure 11% (10%) {8%} [9%] (13%) {15%} [10%]
PPP 2016 Democratic nomination
•Hillary Clinton 67% {66%} [67%] (52%) {63%} [64%] (58%) {57%} [61%] (57%)
•Joe Biden 7% {10%} [12%] (12%) {13%} [18%] (19%) {16%} [12%] (14%)
•Elizabeth Warren 7% {6%} [4%] (6%) {3%} [5%] (8%) {4%} [4%] (6%)
•Andrew Cuomo 2% {2%} [2%] (2%) {4%} [3%] (3%) {4%} [5%] (5%)
•Cory Booker 2% {2%} [1%] (3%)
•Kirsten Gillibrand 1% [0%] (5%) {1%} [1%] (1%) {1%}
•Mark Warner 1% [1%] (1%) {3%} [2%] (1%) {2%} [1%] (2%)
•Martin O’Malley 1% {2%} [2%] (1%) {2%} [1%] (1%) {3%} [2%] (1%)
•Brian Schweitzer 1% {1%} [0%] (2%) {1%} [1%] (0%) {1%} [1%] (1%)
•Someone else/Not sure 10% {7%} [12%] (17%) {10%} [6%] (9%) {10%} [12%] (12%)
PPP 206 General Election
•Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [42%] (44%) {43%} [47%] (46%) {46%} [44%]
•Chris Christie (R) 43% [45%] (39%) {42%} [44%] (42%) {41%} [42%]
•Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {46%} (50%) {50%} [53%]
•Paul Ryan (R) 44% {44%} (43%) {44%} [39%]
•Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [48%] (48%) {44%} {49%} [51%]
•Jeb Bush (R) 43% [43%] (39%) {41%} {43%} [37%]
•Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [48%] (49%) {47%} [51%] (49%)
•Rand Paul (R) 43% [43%] (37%) {39%} [41%] (43%)
•Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [48%]
•Mike Huckabee (R) 43% [42%]
•Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [49%] (50%)
•Ted Cruz (R) 41% [41%] (33%)
•Chris Christie (R) 46% [49%] (45%) {45%} [49%] (49%){44%}
•Joe Biden (D) 35% [35%] (38%) {39%} [40%] (40%) {44%}
•Chris Christie (R) 43% [49%]
•Elizabeth Warren (D) 34% [33%]
•Hillary Clinton 74% (64%) {62%} [61%] (63%)
•Joe Biden 10% (6%) {8%} [7%] (10%)
•Andrew Cuomo 2% (2%) {1%} [3%] (5%)
•Mark Warner 1% (0%) {0%} [2%] (0%)
•Brian Schweitzer 0% [0%] (1%)
•Martin O’Malley (0%) {0%} [0%] (0%)
•Kirsten Gillibrand 0% (0%) {0%}
•Someone else 2% (2%) {2%} [2%] (1%)
•Don’t know yet 10% (18%) {19%} [22%] (16%)
UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2016 GOP nomination
•Rand Paul 16% (17%) {16%} [15%] (8%)
•Kelly Ayotte 13% [5%] (10%)
•Scott Brown 11% (7%)
•Chris Christie 9% (16%) {21%} [11%] (14%)
•Paul Ryan 6% (9%) {8%} [11%] (11%)
•Marco Rubio 6% (4%) {6%} [15%] (12%)
•Donald Trump 4%
•Jeb Bush 3% (8%) {10%} [5%] (5%)
•Ted Cruz 3% (6%) {4%} [2%] (1%)
•Scott Walker 2% (2%) {2%} [1%] (3%)
•Rick Perry 2% (1%) {4%}
•Peter King 0% (0%)
•Rob Portman 0% (0%) {0%} [1%] (0%)
•Someone else 6% (3%) {3%} [0%] (2%)
•Don’t know yet 18% (21%) {20%} [23%] (20%)
Buckie was not made famous by a mention in a JAMS / KLF song, from one of my favourite 1980s albums: It features a conversation between Bill Drummond and a talking porpoise. This appealed to my fifteen-year old self.
•Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [42%] (44%) {43%} [47%] (46%) {46%} [44%]
•Chris Christie (R) 43% [45%] (39%) {42%} [44%] (42%) {41%} [42%]
•Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {46%} (50%) {50%} [53%]
•Paul Ryan (R) 44% {44%} (43%) {44%} [39%]
•Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [48%] (48%) {44%} {49%} [51%]
•Jeb Bush (R) 43% [43%] (39%) {41%} {43%} [37%]
•Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [48%] (49%) {47%} [51%] (49%)
•Rand Paul (R) 43% [43%] (37%) {39%} [41%] (43%)
•Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [48%]
•Mike Huckabee (R) 43% [42%]
•Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [49%] (50%)
•Ted Cruz (R) 41% [41%] (33%)
•Chris Christie (R) 46% [49%] (45%) {45%} [49%] (49%){44%}
•Joe Biden (D) 35% [35%] (38%) {39%} [40%] (40%) {44%}
•Chris Christie (R) 43% [49%]
•Elizabeth Warren (D) 34% [33%]
•Hillary Clinton 67% {66%} [67%] (52%) {63%} [64%] (58%) {57%} [61%] (57%)
•Joe Biden 7% {10%} [12%] (12%) {13%} [18%] (19%) {16%} [12%] (14%)
•Elizabeth Warren 7% {6%} [4%] (6%) {3%} [5%] (8%) {4%} [4%] (6%)
•Andrew Cuomo 2% {2%} [2%] (2%) {4%} [3%] (3%) {4%} [5%] (5%)
•Cory Booker 2% {2%} [1%] (3%)
•Kirsten Gillibrand 1% [0%] (5%) {1%} [1%] (1%) {1%}
•Mark Warner 1% [1%] (1%) {3%} [2%] (1%) {2%} [1%] (2%)
•Martin O’Malley 1% {2%} [2%] (1%) {2%} [1%] (1%) {3%} [2%] (1%)
•Brian Schweitzer 1% {1%} [0%] (2%) {1%} [1%] (0%) {1%} [1%] (1%)
•Someone else/Not sure 10% {7%} [12%] (17%) {10%} [6%] (9%) {10%} [12%] (12%)
Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to see as the Democratic candidate for President in 2016?
•Joe Biden 32% {35%} [27%] (34%) {38%} [49%] (57%) (32%)
•Elizabeth Warren 16% {13%} [19%] (13%) {13%} [11%] (13%) (8%)
•Andrew Cuomo 7% {7%} [6%] (10%) {10%} [10%] (5%) (18%)
•Cory Booker 7% {7%} [6%] (4%)
•Kirsten Gillibrand 3% [4%] (3%) {2%} [7%] (4%)
•Mark Warner 2% [1%] (2%) {3%} [3%] (3%) (2%)
•Brian Schweitzer 2% {1%} [1%] (2%) {1%} [2%] (0%) (1%)
•Martin O’Malley 1% {4%} [3%] (3%) {3%} [1%] (1%) (2%)
•Someone else/Not sure 31% {16%} [33%] (29%) {26%} [15%] (14%) (32%)
Given the choices of Cory Booker, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to see as the Democratic candidate for President in 2016?
•Elizabeth Warren 24% {24%} [23%] (20%) {17%} [18%] (21%) {16%} [16%] (9%)
•Andrew Cuomo 13% {14%} [13%] (11%) {25%} [22%] (25%) {19%} [21%] (27%)
•Cory Booker 11% {13%} [14%] (8%)
•Kirsten Gillibrand 4% [3%] (5%) {5%} [5%] (3%) {5%}
•Brian Schweitzer 3% {2%} [1%] (4%) {1%} [1%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%)
•Martin O’Malley 2% {7%} [4%] (2%) {5%} [8%] (5%) {7%} [5%] (4%)
•Mark Warner 1% [2%] (3%) {4%} [5%] (4%) {4%} [3%] (4%)
•Someone else/Not sure 43% {40%} [39%] (47%) {38%} [36%] (36%) {40%} [45%] (46%)
•Jeb Bush 18% (12%) {14%} [11%] (13%) {15%} [12%]
•Chris Christie 17% (23%) {16%} [14%] (13%) {15%} [15%]
•Rand Paul 13% (12%) {16%} [17%] (16%) {14%} [17%]
•Ted Cruz 11% (15%) {15%} [20%] (12%) {7%}
•Paul Ryan 9% (11%) {11%} [10%] (13%) {9%} [12%]
•Marco Rubio 8% (8%) {10%} [10%] (10%) {16%} [21%]
•Scott Walker 7% (6%) [3%]
•Bobby Jindal 5% (4%) {6%} [4%] (4%) {3%} [4%]
•Someone else/Not sure 11% (10%) {8%} [9%] (13%) {15%} [10%]
Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott Walker, who would you most like to see as the GOP candidate for President in 2016?
•Mike Huckabee 16% (13%) (11%) {15%} [11%] (17%)
•Jeb Bush 14% (10%) (13%) {14%} [12%] (17%)
•Chris Christie 13% (19%) (13%) {14%} [14%] (21%)
•Rand Paul 11% (11%) (10%) {5%} [7%] (4%)
•Paul Ryan 8% (10%) (15%) {16%} [12%] (7%)
•Marco Rubio 8% (7%) (22%) {21%} [18%] (10%)
•Ted Cruz 8% (14%)
•Scott Walker 6% (4%)
•Bobby Jindal 5% (3%) (4%) {3%} (3%)
•Someone else/Not sure 10% (10%) (8%) {7%} [7%] (10%)
"There are two distinct political conversations going on currently: one on the right involving the Tories and UKIP; one on the left involving Labour and 2010 LDs. Both big parties are betting their hinterlands are bigger; neither seems to be that interested in the centre. Such are the glories if our electoral system."
I agree that there are two political conversations going on currently but I would differ as to what they are.
There is a middle class political conversation aimed at former LibDem voters by the Conservatives and Labour hoping to gain votes.
And there is a working class political conversation aimed at former Conservative and Labour voters by UKIP hoping to gain votes.
As most politicans and political journalists/commentators are middle class the first receives the most coverage.
But to win in 2015 both the Conservatives and Labour need to develop strategies for each of the political conversations.
Their problem is that these are often mutually incompatible.
Cheers to Mr. Hayfield for his regular piece.
Planning to work offline tomorrow due to much disruption (and occasional loss of electricity). Unfortunately this means I won't be able to keep as close an eye on testing as I'd like, but it's only the last day of the first test, so hopefully nothing exciting will happen.
Which at least has the attraction of being over quicker (and somehow involves England scoring more runs than they manage in 50 overs).
The Conservatives: "We'll get the deficit down and then try to be nice."
Labour: "We'll say anything to prise power out of the Conservative's evil hands. Even if that means being Conservative."
Lib Dems: "Whimper"
UKIP: "EU and immigrants!"
Where do the politicians see the country being in ten years, yet alone twenty? What is their aspiration? Buggered if I know, because they're just concentrating on fifteen months time.
Compare to Scotland, where the SNP do have a positive image for the future of Scotland, a grand plan. Even if you agree or disagree whether that image is positive or plan achievable.At least they have one.
David Cameron left bruised and humiliated after being forced to raise the white flag to Tory immigration rebels: http://bit.ly/1loqGaO
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Observer/Pix/pictures/2010/1/8/1262962773146/goal-hanging-squirrel-001.jpg
Right squirrel, you grab one post and I will grab the other....onward march!
True tere are aspects of UKIP policy I have serious problems with just like any other party but the 'vision thing' is very much something that UKIP do far better than the three established parties who just trot out tired old mantras that no one believes any more.
42/32
Ah, so that what it means.
http://blog.englishelections.org.uk/2014/01/by-elections-preview-30-january-2013.html
"Places which sound nice aren't always entirely so. Lichfield is a generally beautiful and well-preserved cathedral city in the Midlands, but the Chadsmead ward - a tract of postwar housing in the north-west of the city - includes Lichfield's most deprived census district. And it votes like it too; this is one of Labour's strongest wards in the city."
compouter,cameron's crap performance at PMQ'S ;-) God help after today,it could be 15% lead ;-)
http://cdn.attackofthecute.com/September-21-2011-22-10-20-article20014580C7AE1F400000578364468x483.jpeg
Party members do of course have default long-term ideas - Labour's is a sort of efficient Scandinavia, the Tories something like the US plus a functioning health service. But plans to get from here to there are in short supply. You could argue that this shows a certain underlying honesty - the parties are trying not to promise the earth as they've little idea how to deliver it. But lots of voters certainly feel as you do and it produces a morose political climate.
Amusing YouGov! I suggest the same caution that I suggested for the 2-point leads. But what will Dan Hodges say now?
It's like the night of the big squirrels !
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hzQqF_ETizo/TehgF0RHGyI/AAAAAAAAAJc/3GlWMQHWOAA/s1600/normal_killer_squirrel.jpg
And the reverse also often applies.
Just as many affluent districts have areas of deprivation many deprived districts have areas of affluence.
But the media prefer coarse sterotypes.
@OwenJones84 surprised you're not heralding it as Lab's 50p bounce - esp given Cam was so poor at PMQs this week
It is why compouter is crying out loud and clinging for comfort to a furry animal.
http://www.ukip.org/issues/policy-pages/what-we-stand-for
These are anxious and troubled times. As crisis has followed crisis, our politicians are doing nothing in the face of the dangers rearing up all around us.
Violent crime erupts in our cities. Jobs are lost and our vital NHS and state school places are straining under a tide of immigration.
Another tide of migration comes from the EU as controls on Bulgaria and Romania expire.
Yet the political class tells us the EU is good for the UK.
A gulf has opened between the ruling elite and the public. Each of the establishment main parties are now so similar they offer voters no real choice.
Only outside the EU can we start to solve the problems our country faces.
UKIP has become an anti-immigration party, and little else. The anti-EU aspect is justified primarily on the (probably spurious) grounds that it would allow the UK to reduce immigration. Note how all six of the headline points in 'What we stand for' are related back to immigration.
Reducing immigration and leaving Europe will not lead automatically to a land of milk and honey. There needs to be other grand-vision policies as well. It would be easy to reduce immigration and leave the EU, and have the country a much 'better' place. It would also be possible to do them and leave the country much worse.
It would be nice if we could use the 2010 GE prospectus as an idea of how UKIP see the country in the future, but sadly that's been disavowed.
But as I said, the other parties are not any better.
http://l.yimg.com/a/p/sp/editorial_image/49/495d12a44e82e705a706f384cb631694/squirrel_returns_to_busch_heads_for_home_during_atbat.jpg
Prior to and during the leadership contest she played the ordinary housewife a lot, rather wrong-footing her opponents. She was very good at speaking past the politerati with things like that.
What does it all mean?
Will my recycling get collected?
*************************************************
Troops return to barracks, can't do anything better than the fire service, though they might come out to play if the weather gets worse.
All that training in the CCF hasn't paid off for the Coalition front bench
Dare say 10% lead might be an outlier but always thought the massive narrowing this week was very strange.
Lab surge due to mystic DH admitting he is out of the car?
http://sd.keepcalm-o-matic.co.uk/i/keep-calm-and-ohh-look-squirrel.png
In these straightened times that's cause for breaking out a bottle of good champagne.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/isabel-hardman/2014/01/raab-amendment-fails-but-govt-left-looking-weak-and-confused/
Ed Balls will then be in line for mass leftie worship....
Conservatives won in 2011 but candidate disqualified for non attendance
Lib Dems fielding previous councillor who won the TC by election in the ward in 2012
Labour fielding candidate who won the much larger CC division last May and was a close 2nd in the TC by election in 2012
UKIP as you say should do well in this ward .
General feeliong is it should be between Labour and Lib Dems and Conservatives could even drop from 1st to 4th but very difficult to call .
It's a Victory for Ed!.
So we should all just shred ComRes and move on.
http://www.sthelensstar.co.uk/news/10975098.Ex_Lib_Dem_John_Beirne_makes_shock_switch_to_UKIP/?ref=twtrec
"Empty Dave". Does Cameron believe in ANYTHING? @PCollinsTimes gives the PM both barrels in Friday's @TheTimes http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article3990911.ece …
Cameron really needs to get on the front foot with policies and hit the labour party harder,labours getting away with political murder with the policies they have announced.
He's letting newspapers make up Stories because so far ,like the tweet says,we have empty dave,like this story -
The sun front page have inside information that the government will be having longer hours for school kids ,this morning the education department says the story is bull,for god sake.
Please cammers,believe in something ;-)
With that,I'm off to bed,Dreaming of closer polls ;-)
One of the groups closest to UKIP and their post-EU vision is Global Britain and the name says it all.
In fact one might say that as long as we remain within the EU your complaint about a lack of vision by the parties is rather unfair given that they can have no vision for a better Britain as they have so little control over our future with most of our governmental decision making having been ceded to the EU.
It is funny that when UKIP does come forward with visionary ideas they are accused of living in the past. And yet no other party comes close to a coherent idea of what Britain's place should be in the world beyond just another collection of European regions.
Privatisation, nationalisation, balancing the books, controlling immigration, controlling benefits are all well and good depending on your viewpoint, but they are just means to an end, not the end in itself.
A vision would be something like: "By 2030, we will be in the top three of the OECD PISA rankings.", "patient satisfaction in the NHS will be at least 85% by 2020", or "We will double British companies R&D budgets by 2018", or "we will build two new cities by 2030." (*)
They can then discuss the means to reach those aims. How do we alter education and the NHS to reach them? How do we get companies to invest in R&D? It also requires real political backing, witness the failure of Labour's Ecotowns.
Instead, what we get is whether Latin should be taught in schools and waiting list targets.
(*) Yes, these aren't particularly spectacular visions. But I'm tired and my mind's all confuzled.
Immigration is a huge problem for the UK on many levels. In spite of what Robert S believes. At least UKIP has a vision for dealing with the issue and managing immigration at reasonable levels which genuinely benefit the country rather than lurching from one extreme to another and from one stupid, unworkable, headline grabbing idea to another. Cameron has so far managed to annoy both the Indians and the Chinese with his idiotic knee jerk immigration plans. Who is he lining up next to upset I wonder?
Meanwhile me and the squirrel have some lifting to do.
Not even a joke about squirrels!
I don't disagree that immigration can cause problems.
My belief is that the problems are irrelevant.
I believe that states should not have the right to prevent the free movement of people.
Wonder if there's a message board for communists written by Nick Griffin out there
Or go to UKIP's home page; top item, 'Common sense on immigration'.
Of course, that is probably astute enough politically. (They've followed Lynton Crosby's advice and have stripped away the barnacles). But it's not your vision.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
We've had similar fluctuating patterns before on YouGov which is I presume why Mike chose to start doing a weekly average. To be fair though if you really want to smooth out all the spikes and drops you're still far better off looking at all the polls over longer than just a week then you can spot the real trends.
He is a Cable shill without Cable's brains.
http://gifs.gifbin.com/1239024473_squirrel-catapult.gif" alt="squirrel
Nowadays, we have a Lab/SNP coalition. The difference being that this time, the Labour leadership have (ex-Labour vice Provost until he found out he was going to be deselected by his local party and jumped ship) SNP leader Steve Cardownie's dangly bits in a proverbial vice.
Gossip (from SNP friends) has it that Cardownie is not universally loved in his new party and there is a significant minority who would like to see the back of him, preferably with a few knives stuck in it.
As to recycling, there seems to be a bit of a citizens revolt beginning to happen. Can't speak for other areas of Edinburgh, but locally, when I'm waking the dog, I'm noticing that all the coloured bins/boxes/bags are not being put out with the previous keenness for separating out all the different types of rubbish and placing the correct ones on the right day at the kerb before 08:00 and not the night before etc., etc..
For the lib dems they certainly are. Still flatlining at 10% since late 2010. That's utterly static.
For labour, the tories and the kippers they've been static since about September last year. Before then however, not so much.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
http://www.channel4.com/news/raab-immigration-bill-theresa-may-criminal-deportation