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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : January 30th 2014

SystemSystem Posts: 12,214
edited January 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : January 30th 2014

Heanor East on Amber Valley (Lab Defence)
Result of last election for council (2012): Con 24, Lab 21 (Conservative overall majority of 3)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Lab 838 (53%), Con 391 (25%), BNP 284 (18%), Lib Dem 69 (4%)
Candidates duly nominated: Steven Grainger (Con), Sheila Oakes (Lab), Kate Smith (Lib Dem)

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    edited January 2014
    First? - And quite understand you taking the time instead to tally European results by local area - very much looking forward to that data in due course.
  • another night, another thread - same outcome for some!

    Tottenham Hotspur‏@SpursOfficial1 min
    Four minutes added on at the end, we're chasing the game. 2-3, 90mins.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Priti, please

    Priti Patel is the CCHQ ‘attack dog’ backbencher with the nicest smile. Now helping the PM on India and on justice policy, can the globe-trotting Essex MP go the extra mile?

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/92166/priti_please.html

    I could see priti patel a future tory leader.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking 7 mins
    Italian court reinstates guilty verdicts for Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito for murder of Meredith Kercher http://bbc.in/LffAnL

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2014
    What a disgusting murderer Amanda Knox is.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Priti, please

    Priti Patel is the CCHQ ‘attack dog’ backbencher with the nicest smile. Now helping the PM on India and on justice policy, can the globe-trotting Essex MP go the extra mile?

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/92166/priti_please.html

    I could see priti patel a future tory leader.

    She has a real "stage presence", I'm not surprised she's considered an "attack dog" - her arguing at full force is quite a sight. However I think she's just too right-wing and slightly scary to be leader, which is a consensus position. Perhaps she'll mellow.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,889
    edited January 2014
    PPP 2016 GOP nomination

    •Jeb Bush 18% (12%) {14%} [11%] (13%) {15%} [12%]
    •Chris Christie 17% (23%) {16%} [14%] (13%) {15%} [15%]
    •Rand Paul 13% (12%) {16%} [17%] (16%) {14%} [17%]
    •Ted Cruz 11% (15%) {15%} [20%] (12%) {7%}
    •Paul Ryan 9% (11%) {11%} [10%] (13%) {9%} [12%]
    •Marco Rubio 8% (8%) {10%} [10%] (10%) {16%} [21%]
    •Scott Walker 7% (6%) [3%]
    •Bobby Jindal 5% (4%) {6%} [4%] (4%) {3%} [4%]
    •Someone else/Not sure 11% (10%) {8%} [9%] (13%) {15%} [10%]

    PPP 2016 Democratic nomination

    •Hillary Clinton 67% {66%} [67%] (52%) {63%} [64%] (58%) {57%} [61%] (57%)
    •Joe Biden 7% {10%} [12%] (12%) {13%} [18%] (19%) {16%} [12%] (14%)
    •Elizabeth Warren 7% {6%} [4%] (6%) {3%} [5%] (8%) {4%} [4%] (6%)
    •Andrew Cuomo 2% {2%} [2%] (2%) {4%} [3%] (3%) {4%} [5%] (5%)
    •Cory Booker 2% {2%} [1%] (3%)
    •Kirsten Gillibrand 1% [0%] (5%) {1%} [1%] (1%) {1%}
    •Mark Warner 1% [1%] (1%) {3%} [2%] (1%) {2%} [1%] (2%)
    •Martin O’Malley 1% {2%} [2%] (1%) {2%} [1%] (1%) {3%} [2%] (1%)
    •Brian Schweitzer 1% {1%} [0%] (2%) {1%} [1%] (0%) {1%} [1%] (1%)
    •Someone else/Not sure 10% {7%} [12%] (17%) {10%} [6%] (9%) {10%} [12%] (12%)



    PPP 206 General Election

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [42%] (44%) {43%} [47%] (46%) {46%} [44%]
    •Chris Christie (R) 43% [45%] (39%) {42%} [44%] (42%) {41%} [42%]
    •Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {46%} (50%) {50%} [53%]
    •Paul Ryan (R) 44% {44%} (43%) {44%} [39%]
    •Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [48%] (48%) {44%} {49%} [51%]
    •Jeb Bush (R) 43% [43%] (39%) {41%} {43%} [37%]
    •Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [48%] (49%) {47%} [51%] (49%)
    •Rand Paul (R) 43% [43%] (37%) {39%} [41%] (43%)
    •Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [48%]
    •Mike Huckabee (R) 43% [42%]
    •Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [49%] (50%)
    •Ted Cruz (R) 41% [41%] (33%)
    •Chris Christie (R) 46% [49%] (45%) {45%} [49%] (49%){44%}
    •Joe Biden (D) 35% [35%] (38%) {39%} [40%] (40%) {44%}
    •Chris Christie (R) 43% [49%]
    •Elizabeth Warren (D) 34% [33%]
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,889
    UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2016 Democratic nomination

    •Hillary Clinton 74% (64%) {62%} [61%] (63%)
    •Joe Biden 10% (6%) {8%} [7%] (10%)
    •Andrew Cuomo 2% (2%) {1%} [3%] (5%)
    •Mark Warner 1% (0%) {0%} [2%] (0%)
    •Brian Schweitzer 0% [0%] (1%)
    •Martin O’Malley (0%) {0%} [0%] (0%)
    •Kirsten Gillibrand 0% (0%) {0%}
    •Someone else 2% (2%) {2%} [2%] (1%)
    •Don’t know yet 10% (18%) {19%} [22%] (16%)

    UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2016 GOP nomination

    •Rand Paul 16% (17%) {16%} [15%] (8%)
    •Kelly Ayotte 13% [5%] (10%)
    •Scott Brown 11% (7%)
    •Chris Christie 9% (16%) {21%} [11%] (14%)
    •Paul Ryan 6% (9%) {8%} [11%] (11%)
    •Marco Rubio 6% (4%) {6%} [15%] (12%)
    •Donald Trump 4%
    •Jeb Bush 3% (8%) {10%} [5%] (5%)
    •Ted Cruz 3% (6%) {4%} [2%] (1%)
    •Scott Walker 2% (2%) {2%} [1%] (3%)
    •Rick Perry 2% (1%) {4%}
    •Peter King 0% (0%)
    •Rob Portman 0% (0%) {0%} [1%] (0%)
    •Someone else 6% (3%) {3%} [0%] (2%)
    •Don’t know yet 18% (21%) {20%} [23%] (20%)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016

    BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking 7 mins
    Italian court reinstates guilty verdicts for Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito for murder of Meredith Kercher http://bbc.in/LffAnL

    Our criminal justice system does not always cover itself in glory but blinmy. I have absolutely no idea if she is guilty or not.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Grandiose said:

    Priti, please

    Priti Patel is the CCHQ ‘attack dog’ backbencher with the nicest smile. Now helping the PM on India and on justice policy, can the globe-trotting Essex MP go the extra mile?

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/92166/priti_please.html

    I could see priti patel a future tory leader.

    She has a real "stage presence", I'm not surprised she's considered an "attack dog" - her arguing at full force is quite a sight. However I think she's just too right-wing and slightly scary to be leader, which is a consensus position. Perhaps she'll mellow.
    I bet those Questions were said of thatcher ;-) but who ever gets the backing of the tory right backbenchers,they have a chance to get in the leadership playoff's,she could be the tory right poster girl ;-)

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    The Italian legal system does seem a little indecisive.
    DavidL said:

    BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking 7 mins
    Italian court reinstates guilty verdicts for Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito for murder of Meredith Kercher http://bbc.in/LffAnL

    Our criminal justice system does not always cover itself in glory but blinmy. I have absolutely no idea if she is guilty or not.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469
    Ah, Buckie. Quite a nice Moray town, and the start of the Speyside Way. It's my least-favourite national trail despite the distilleries it passes. ;-)

    Buckie was not made famous by a mention in a JAMS / KLF song, from one of my favourite 1980s albums:
    "The rest of the crew were all Buckie men, but the skipper was from MacDuff."
    It features a conversation between Bill Drummond and a talking porpoise. This appealed to my fifteen-year old self.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,566
    Heanor is the sort of place where any UKIP breakthroiugh with working-class Labour supporters should appear - it's ex-coalfield, and even the BNP did well in the area in the past. It's odd that they've not put anyone up.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,889
    PPP 2016 General Election

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [42%] (44%) {43%} [47%] (46%) {46%} [44%]
    •Chris Christie (R) 43% [45%] (39%) {42%} [44%] (42%) {41%} [42%]

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {46%} (50%) {50%} [53%]
    •Paul Ryan (R) 44% {44%} (43%) {44%} [39%]

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [48%] (48%) {44%} {49%} [51%]
    •Jeb Bush (R) 43% [43%] (39%) {41%} {43%} [37%]

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [48%] (49%) {47%} [51%] (49%)
    •Rand Paul (R) 43% [43%] (37%) {39%} [41%] (43%)

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [48%]
    •Mike Huckabee (R) 43% [42%]

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [49%] (50%)
    •Ted Cruz (R) 41% [41%] (33%)

    •Chris Christie (R) 46% [49%] (45%) {45%} [49%] (49%){44%}
    •Joe Biden (D) 35% [35%] (38%) {39%} [40%] (40%) {44%}

    •Chris Christie (R) 43% [49%]
    •Elizabeth Warren (D) 34% [33%]
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016

    The Italian legal system does seem a little indecisive.

    DavidL said:

    BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking 7 mins
    Italian court reinstates guilty verdicts for Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito for murder of Meredith Kercher http://bbc.in/LffAnL

    Our criminal justice system does not always cover itself in glory but blinmy. I have absolutely no idea if she is guilty or not.

    Well it used to be but now they are not so sure.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,889
    edited January 2014
    PPP 2016 Democratic nomination

    •Hillary Clinton 67% {66%} [67%] (52%) {63%} [64%] (58%) {57%} [61%] (57%)
    •Joe Biden 7% {10%} [12%] (12%) {13%} [18%] (19%) {16%} [12%] (14%)
    •Elizabeth Warren 7% {6%} [4%] (6%) {3%} [5%] (8%) {4%} [4%] (6%)
    •Andrew Cuomo 2% {2%} [2%] (2%) {4%} [3%] (3%) {4%} [5%] (5%)
    •Cory Booker 2% {2%} [1%] (3%)
    •Kirsten Gillibrand 1% [0%] (5%) {1%} [1%] (1%) {1%}
    •Mark Warner 1% [1%] (1%) {3%} [2%] (1%) {2%} [1%] (2%)
    •Martin O’Malley 1% {2%} [2%] (1%) {2%} [1%] (1%) {3%} [2%] (1%)
    •Brian Schweitzer 1% {1%} [0%] (2%) {1%} [1%] (0%) {1%} [1%] (1%)
    •Someone else/Not sure 10% {7%} [12%] (17%) {10%} [6%] (9%) {10%} [12%] (12%)


    Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to see as the Democratic candidate for President in 2016?
    •Joe Biden 32% {35%} [27%] (34%) {38%} [49%] (57%) (32%)
    •Elizabeth Warren 16% {13%} [19%] (13%) {13%} [11%] (13%) (8%)
    •Andrew Cuomo 7% {7%} [6%] (10%) {10%} [10%] (5%) (18%)
    •Cory Booker 7% {7%} [6%] (4%)
    •Kirsten Gillibrand 3% [4%] (3%) {2%} [7%] (4%)
    •Mark Warner 2% [1%] (2%) {3%} [3%] (3%) (2%)
    •Brian Schweitzer 2% {1%} [1%] (2%) {1%} [2%] (0%) (1%)
    •Martin O’Malley 1% {4%} [3%] (3%) {3%} [1%] (1%) (2%)
    •Someone else/Not sure 31% {16%} [33%] (29%) {26%} [15%] (14%) (32%)

    Given the choices of Cory Booker, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to see as the Democratic candidate for President in 2016?
    •Elizabeth Warren 24% {24%} [23%] (20%) {17%} [18%] (21%) {16%} [16%] (9%)
    •Andrew Cuomo 13% {14%} [13%] (11%) {25%} [22%] (25%) {19%} [21%] (27%)
    •Cory Booker 11% {13%} [14%] (8%)
    •Kirsten Gillibrand 4% [3%] (5%) {5%} [5%] (3%) {5%}
    •Brian Schweitzer 3% {2%} [1%] (4%) {1%} [1%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%)
    •Martin O’Malley 2% {7%} [4%] (2%) {5%} [8%] (5%) {7%} [5%] (4%)
    •Mark Warner 1% [2%] (3%) {4%} [5%] (4%) {4%} [3%] (4%)
    •Someone else/Not sure 43% {40%} [39%] (47%) {38%} [36%] (36%) {40%} [45%] (46%)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,889
    PPP 2016 GOP nomination

    •Jeb Bush 18% (12%) {14%} [11%] (13%) {15%} [12%]
    •Chris Christie 17% (23%) {16%} [14%] (13%) {15%} [15%]
    •Rand Paul 13% (12%) {16%} [17%] (16%) {14%} [17%]
    •Ted Cruz 11% (15%) {15%} [20%] (12%) {7%}
    •Paul Ryan 9% (11%) {11%} [10%] (13%) {9%} [12%]
    •Marco Rubio 8% (8%) {10%} [10%] (10%) {16%} [21%]
    •Scott Walker 7% (6%) [3%]
    •Bobby Jindal 5% (4%) {6%} [4%] (4%) {3%} [4%]
    •Someone else/Not sure 11% (10%) {8%} [9%] (13%) {15%} [10%]

    Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott Walker, who would you most like to see as the GOP candidate for President in 2016?
    •Mike Huckabee 16% (13%) (11%) {15%} [11%] (17%)
    •Jeb Bush 14% (10%) (13%) {14%} [12%] (17%)
    •Chris Christie 13% (19%) (13%) {14%} [14%] (21%)
    •Rand Paul 11% (11%) (10%) {5%} [7%] (4%)
    •Paul Ryan 8% (10%) (15%) {16%} [12%] (7%)
    •Marco Rubio 8% (7%) (22%) {21%} [18%] (10%)
    •Ted Cruz 8% (14%)
    •Scott Walker 6% (4%)
    •Bobby Jindal 5% (3%) (4%) {3%} (3%)
    •Someone else/Not sure 10% (10%) (8%) {7%} [7%] (10%)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,378
    I think we'll see a jump in the Lab lead with YouGov tonight - Thinking 6%
  • Southam made this comment this morning:

    "There are two distinct political conversations going on currently: one on the right involving the Tories and UKIP; one on the left involving Labour and 2010 LDs. Both big parties are betting their hinterlands are bigger; neither seems to be that interested in the centre. Such are the glories if our electoral system."

    I agree that there are two political conversations going on currently but I would differ as to what they are.

    There is a middle class political conversation aimed at former LibDem voters by the Conservatives and Labour hoping to gain votes.

    And there is a working class political conversation aimed at former Conservative and Labour voters by UKIP hoping to gain votes.

    As most politicans and political journalists/commentators are middle class the first receives the most coverage.

    But to win in 2015 both the Conservatives and Labour need to develop strategies for each of the political conversations.

    Their problem is that these are often mutually incompatible.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,962
    Good evening, everyone.

    Cheers to Mr. Hayfield for his regular piece.

    Planning to work offline tomorrow due to much disruption (and occasional loss of electricity). Unfortunately this means I won't be able to keep as close an eye on testing as I'd like, but it's only the last day of the first test, so hopefully nothing exciting will happen.
  • Grandiose said:

    Priti, please

    Priti Patel is the CCHQ ‘attack dog’ backbencher with the nicest smile. Now helping the PM on India and on justice policy, can the globe-trotting Essex MP go the extra mile?

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/92166/priti_please.html

    I could see priti patel a future tory leader.

    She has a real "stage presence", I'm not surprised she's considered an "attack dog" - her arguing at full force is quite a sight. However I think she's just too right-wing and slightly scary to be leader, which is a consensus position. Perhaps she'll mellow.
    I bet those Questions were said of thatcher ;-) but who ever gets the backing of the tory right backbenchers,they have a chance to get in the leadership playoff's,she could be the tory right poster girl ;-)

    As a right winger in some ways I certainly could not support her because of her views on the death penalty.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016

    Good evening, everyone.

    Cheers to Mr. Hayfield for his regular piece.

    Planning to work offline tomorrow due to much disruption (and occasional loss of electricity). Unfortunately this means I won't be able to keep as close an eye on testing as I'd like, but it's only the last day of the first test, so hopefully nothing exciting will happen.

    Test? I thought England were to be beaten at 20:20 again tomorrow.

    Which at least has the attraction of being over quicker (and somehow involves England scoring more runs than they manage in 50 overs).

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469

    Southam made this comment this morning:

    "There are two distinct political conversations going on currently: one on the right involving the Tories and UKIP; one on the left involving Labour and 2010 LDs. Both big parties are betting their hinterlands are bigger; neither seems to be that interested in the centre. Such are the glories if our electoral system."

    I agree that there are two political conversations going on currently but I would differ as to what they are.

    There is a middle class political conversation aimed at former LibDem voters by the Conservatives and Labour hoping to gain votes.

    And there is a working class political conversation aimed at former Conservative and Labour voters by UKIP hoping to gain votes.

    As most politicans and political journalists/commentators are middle class the first receives the most coverage.

    But to win in 2015 both the Conservatives and Labour need to develop strategies for each of the political conversations.

    Their problem is that these are often mutually incompatible.

    There're all sorts of conversations going on, in all sorts of directions. The one thing that's lacking is positivity. There's no positive message or plan of any size from any of the UK political parties. There's no positive aspiration on a grand scale.

    The Conservatives: "We'll get the deficit down and then try to be nice."
    Labour: "We'll say anything to prise power out of the Conservative's evil hands. Even if that means being Conservative."
    Lib Dems: "Whimper"
    UKIP: "EU and immigrants!"

    Where do the politicians see the country being in ten years, yet alone twenty? What is their aspiration? Buggered if I know, because they're just concentrating on fifteen months time.

    Compare to Scotland, where the SNP do have a positive image for the future of Scotland, a grand plan. Even if you agree or disagree whether that image is positive or plan achievable.At least they have one.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    The Scum throwing the knife in:

    David Cameron left bruised and humiliated after being forced to raise the white flag to Tory immigration rebels: http://bit.ly/1loqGaO
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps to 10 points: CON 32, LAB 42, LD 8, UKIP 12
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2014
    UKIP ought to do well in Chadsmead — it's white, working-class and probably slightly older than average. (I spent a few years living just outside the ward).
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited January 2014
    Scott_P said:

    Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps to 10 points: CON 32, LAB 42, LD 8, UKIP 12


    http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Observer/Pix/pictures/2010/1/8/1262962773146/goal-hanging-squirrel-001.jpg

    Right squirrel, you grab one post and I will grab the other....onward march!
  • Southam made this comment this morning:

    "There are two distinct political conversations going on currently: one on the right involving the Tories and UKIP; one on the left involving Labour and 2010 LDs. Both big parties are betting their hinterlands are bigger; neither seems to be that interested in the centre. Such are the glories if our electoral system."

    I agree that there are two political conversations going on currently but I would differ as to what they are.

    There is a middle class political conversation aimed at former LibDem voters by the Conservatives and Labour hoping to gain votes.

    And there is a working class political conversation aimed at former Conservative and Labour voters by UKIP hoping to gain votes.

    As most politicans and political journalists/commentators are middle class the first receives the most coverage.

    But to win in 2015 both the Conservatives and Labour need to develop strategies for each of the political conversations.

    Their problem is that these are often mutually incompatible.

    There're all sorts of conversations going on, in all sorts of directions. The one thing that's lacking is positivity. There's no positive message or plan of any size from any of the UK political parties. There's no positive aspiration on a grand scale.

    The Conservatives: "We'll get the deficit down and then try to be nice."
    Labour: "We'll say anything to prise power out of the Conservative's evil hands. Even if that means being Conservative."
    Lib Dems: "Whimper"
    UKIP: "EU and immigrants!"

    Where do the politicians see the country being in ten years, yet alone twenty? What is their aspiration? Buggered if I know, because they're just concentrating on fifteen months time.

    Compare to Scotland, where the SNP do have a positive image for the future of Scotland, a grand plan. Even if you agree or disagree whether that image is positive or plan achievable.At least they have one.
    UKIP have a hugely positive vision of Britain - it just happens to be one you apparently disagree with. The vision of an independent trading nation freed from the shackles of EU incompetence and mismanagement where there is real social mobility with education unfettered by failed social experimentation is one I find very appealing.

    True tere are aspects of UKIP policy I have serious problems with just like any other party but the 'vision thing' is very much something that UKIP do far better than the three established parties who just trot out tired old mantras that no one believes any more.
  • Swingback

    42/32
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,889
    Southam/Josias Clegg is very much targeting the centre ie moderate 'One Nation,pro-European Tories' and Blairites disillusioned with Miliband!
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Swingback

    42/32


    Ah, so that what it means.

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited January 2014
    LOL YouGov..... Just as well no one made the mistake of say a thread based on a new weekly 5 poll average after just the 3 polls...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Andrew Teale's by-election preview:

    http://blog.englishelections.org.uk/2014/01/by-elections-preview-30-january-2013.html

    "Places which sound nice aren't always entirely so. Lichfield is a generally beautiful and well-preserved cathedral city in the Midlands, but the Chadsmead ward - a tract of postwar housing in the north-west of the city - includes Lichfield's most deprived census district. And it votes like it too; this is one of Labour's strongest wards in the city."
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Scott_P said:

    Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps to 10 points: CON 32, LAB 42, LD 8, UKIP 12


    http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Observer/Pix/pictures/2010/1/8/1262962773146/goal-hanging-squirrel-001.jpg

    Right squirrel, you grab one post and I will grab the other....onward march!
    Bloody hell,I'm off to bed ;-)

    compouter,cameron's crap performance at PMQ'S ;-) God help after today,it could be 15% lead ;-)

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469

    Good evening, everyone.

    Cheers to Mr. Hayfield for his regular piece.

    Planning to work offline tomorrow due to much disruption (and occasional loss of electricity). Unfortunately this means I won't be able to keep as close an eye on testing as I'd like, but it's only the last day of the first test, so hopefully nothing exciting will happen.

    We might have the excitement of a Red Bull doing more than a couple of laps before failing. ;-)
  • Scott_P said:

    Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps to 10 points: CON 32, LAB 42, LD 8, UKIP 12


    http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Observer/Pix/pictures/2010/1/8/1262962773146/goal-hanging-squirrel-001.jpg

    Right squirrel, you grab one post and I will grab the other....onward march!
    Bloody hell,I'm off to bed ;-)

    compouter,cameron's crap performance at PMQ'S ;-) God help after today,it could be 15% lead ;-)

    To be fair Tyke you deserve credit for getting every call right this week

  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Scott_P said:

    Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps to 10 points: CON 32, LAB 42, LD 8, UKIP 12


    http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Observer/Pix/pictures/2010/1/8/1262962773146/goal-hanging-squirrel-001.jpg

    Right squirrel, you grab one post and I will grab the other....onward march!
    Bloody hell,I'm off to bed ;-)

    compouter,cameron's crap performance at PMQ'S ;-) God help after today,it could be 15% lead ;-)

    News just in from Dan Hodges "Labours 10% lead is a disaster for Ed Miliband. I have just been told from an unnamed Tory insider that The Conservative Party are ahead in the marginals".
  • Meanwhile the news lead on the government taking action on the floods four weeks too late
  • There is no-one on this thread save for a scout, a computer, and a very fat squirrel
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,566



    There're all sorts of conversations going on, in all sorts of directions. The one thing that's lacking is positivity. There's no positive message or plan of any size from any of the UK political parties. There's no positive aspiration on a grand scale.

    The Conservatives: "We'll get the deficit down and then try to be nice."
    Labour: "We'll say anything to prise power out of the Conservative's evil hands. Even if that means being Conservative."
    Lib Dems: "Whimper"
    UKIP: "EU and immigrants!"

    Where do the politicians see the country being in ten years, yet alone twenty? What is their aspiration? Buggered if I know, because they're just concentrating on fifteen months time.

    Compare to Scotland, where the SNP do have a positive image for the future of Scotland, a grand plan. Even if you agree or disagree whether that image is positive or plan achievable.At least they have one.

    Interesting exchange and I agree there's something in it. Partly the problem is that the parties recognise that the economic position is difficult (while differing on the causes) so it seems implausible to suggest any grand scheme that costs lots of money. They therefore fall back on modest ideas - an extra benefits test, maybe taking passports away from alleged terrorists, taxation up or down on people earning over £150K, etc. HS2 (of which you may have heard) is the surprising exception that proves the rule.

    Party members do of course have default long-term ideas - Labour's is a sort of efficient Scandinavia, the Tories something like the US plus a functioning health service. But plans to get from here to there are in short supply. You could argue that this shows a certain underlying honesty - the parties are trying not to promise the earth as they've little idea how to deliver it. But lots of voters certainly feel as you do and it produces a morose political climate.

    Amusing YouGov! I suggest the same caution that I suggested for the 2-point leads. But what will Dan Hodges say now?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Meanwhile the news lead on the government taking action on the floods four weeks too late

    And tory splits.

  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited January 2014
    According to the PB Hodges today was a disaster for Labour. Headlines on ITV News says "Labour saves Camerons skin".

    It's like the night of the big squirrels !

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hzQqF_ETizo/TehgF0RHGyI/AAAAAAAAAJc/3GlWMQHWOAA/s1600/normal_killer_squirrel.jpg
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    There is no-one on this thread save for a scout, a computer, and a very fat squirrel

    And a lurking Rock Ape

  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Meanwhile the news lead on the government taking action on the floods four weeks too late

    And tory splits.

    But Mr Tyke, PB Hodges one and all were saying today was a disaster for Labour. Are these news programmes not on Mesinna Message? Has Lyntons mobile ran out of juice. Has someone shut down the Tory grid....we need answers.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    There is no-one on this thread save for a scout, a computer, and a very fat squirrel

    LOL!!!!
  • AndyJS said:

    Andrew Teale's by-election preview:

    http://blog.englishelections.org.uk/2014/01/by-elections-preview-30-january-2013.html

    "Places which sound nice aren't always entirely so. Lichfield is a generally beautiful and well-preserved cathedral city in the Midlands, but the Chadsmead ward - a tract of postwar housing in the north-west of the city - includes Lichfield's most deprived census district. And it votes like it too; this is one of Labour's strongest wards in the city."

    Indeed.

    And the reverse also often applies.

    Just as many affluent districts have areas of deprivation many deprived districts have areas of affluence.

    But the media prefer coarse sterotypes.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016
    Wow and I didn't think that Yougov could get any more ridiculous.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Patrick O'Flynn ‏@oflynnexpress 4 mins
    @OwenJones84 surprised you're not heralding it as Lab's 50p bounce - esp given Cam was so poor at PMQs this week

  • DavidL said:

    Wow and I didn't think that Yougov could get any more ridiculous.

    It's a clear outlier. In all reality I suspect nothing has changed whatsoever. It never does.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312

    Meanwhile the news lead on the government taking action on the floods four weeks too late

    Or four years too late. What the f*** has the Environment Agency been up to?


  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    LOL YouGov..... Just as well no one made the mistake of say a thread based on a new weekly 5 poll average after just the 3 polls...

    What is really telling is that the four day average is only a 4.5% even after a 10 point outlier..

    It is why compouter is crying out loud and clinging for comfort to a furry animal.


  • UKIP have a hugely positive vision of Britain - it just happens to be one you apparently disagree with. The vision of an independent trading nation freed from the shackles of EU incompetence and mismanagement where there is real social mobility with education unfettered by failed social experimentation is one I find very appealing.

    That's your vision, not UKIP's. Looking at the tatters of their set of policies (nearly all of which have now been air-brushed out of the record), all that's left is this:

    http://www.ukip.org/issues/policy-pages/what-we-stand-for

    These are anxious and troubled times. As crisis has followed crisis, our politicians are doing nothing in the face of the dangers rearing up all around us.
    Violent crime erupts in our cities. Jobs are lost and our vital NHS and state school places are straining 
under a tide of immigration.
    Another tide of migration comes from the EU as controls on Bulgaria and Romania expire.
    Yet the political class tells us the EU is good for the UK.
    A gulf has opened between the ruling elite and the public. Each of the establishment main parties are now so similar they offer voters no real choice.
    Only outside the EU can we start to solve the problems our country faces.


    UKIP has become an anti-immigration party, and little else. The anti-EU aspect is justified primarily on the (probably spurious) grounds that it would allow the UK to reduce immigration. Note how all six of the headline points in 'What we stand for' are related back to immigration.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469
    edited January 2014



    There're all sorts of conversations going on, in all sorts of directions. The one thing that's lacking is positivity. There's no positive message or plan of any size from any of the UK political parties. There's no positive aspiration on a grand scale.

    The Conservatives: "We'll get the deficit down and then try to be nice."
    Labour: "We'll say anything to prise power out of the Conservative's evil hands. Even if that means being Conservative."
    Lib Dems: "Whimper"
    UKIP: "EU and immigrants!"

    Where do the politicians see the country being in ten years, yet alone twenty? What is their aspiration? Buggered if I know, because they're just concentrating on fifteen months time.

    Compare to Scotland, where the SNP do have a positive image for the future of Scotland, a grand plan. Even if you agree or disagree whether that image is positive or plan achievable.At least they have one.

    UKIP have a hugely positive vision of Britain - it just happens to be one you apparently disagree with. The vision of an independent trading nation freed from the shackles of EU incompetence and mismanagement where there is real social mobility with education unfettered by failed social experimentation is one I find very appealing.

    True tere are aspects of UKIP policy I have serious problems with just like any other party but the 'vision thing' is very much something that UKIP do far better than the three established parties who just trot out tired old mantras that no one believes any more.
    No, the main message we get from UKIP and its supporters is one of anti-immigration and anti-EU. Negativity at every level, even if you agree with the aims. Leaving the EU and reducing immigration are not visions of a better land; they're tools in a toolbox, to be used to achieve an aim, a vision. They are strides along the road, not the destination.

    Reducing immigration and leaving Europe will not lead automatically to a land of milk and honey. There needs to be other grand-vision policies as well. It would be easy to reduce immigration and leave the EU, and have the country a much 'better' place. It would also be possible to do them and leave the country much worse.

    It would be nice if we could use the 2010 GE prospectus as an idea of how UKIP see the country in the future, but sadly that's been disavowed.

    But as I said, the other parties are not any better.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Patrick O'Flynn ‏@oflynnexpress 4 mins
    @OwenJones84 surprised you're not heralding it as Lab's 50p bounce - esp given Cam was so poor at PMQs this week

    Oh no, the squirrel hasn't infiltrated Twitter has it. One bad poll and the squirrel gets everywhere.

    http://l.yimg.com/a/p/sp/editorial_image/49/495d12a44e82e705a706f384cb631694/squirrel_returns_to_busch_heads_for_home_during_atbat.jpg
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    Grandiose said:

    Priti, please

    Priti Patel is the CCHQ ‘attack dog’ backbencher with the nicest smile. Now helping the PM on India and on justice policy, can the globe-trotting Essex MP go the extra mile?

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/92166/priti_please.html

    I could see priti patel a future tory leader.

    She has a real "stage presence", I'm not surprised she's considered an "attack dog" - her arguing at full force is quite a sight. However I think she's just too right-wing and slightly scary to be leader, which is a consensus position. Perhaps she'll mellow.
    I bet those Questions were said of thatcher ;-) but who ever gets the backing of the tory right backbenchers,they have a chance to get in the leadership playoff's,she could be the tory right poster girl ;-)

    Not really Tykejohnno. Thatcher's rather damascene conversion to the right is well documented. Likewise her "scary" -ness came to the fore more after she became leader.

    Prior to and during the leadership contest she played the ordinary housewife a lot, rather wrong-footing her opponents. She was very good at speaking past the politerati with things like that.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Anyone else not sure who's running their council?

    What does it all mean?

    Will my recycling get collected?
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516

    Meanwhile the news lead on the government taking action on the floods four weeks too late

    And tory splits.

    Firstly, Ooops Sorry, didn't mean to mark off topic!
    *************************************************

    Troops return to barracks, can't do anything better than the fire service, though they might come out to play if the weather gets worse.

    All that training in the CCF hasn't paid off for the Coalition front bench
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Where have all the PB Tories gone tonight?

    Dare say 10% lead might be an outlier but always thought the massive narrowing this week was very strange.

    Lab surge due to mystic DH admitting he is out of the car?
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited January 2014

    DavidL said:

    Wow and I didn't think that Yougov could get any more ridiculous.

    It's a clear outlier. In all reality I suspect nothing has changed whatsoever. It never does.
    Of course it is, however, there is nothing funnier than a favorable outlier in favour of Labour to clear the place of PB Hodges and those that venture on avoid it like the plague.


    http://sd.keepcalm-o-matic.co.uk/i/keep-calm-and-ohh-look-squirrel.png
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited January 2014
    Carola said:

    Anyone else not sure who's running their council?

    What does it all mean?

    Will my recycling get collected?

    Well at least you have been saved a fiver a week, Carola.

    In these straightened times that's cause for breaking out a bottle of good champagne.

  • AveryLP said:

    Well at least you have been saved a fiver a week, Carola.

    In these straightened times that's cause for breaking out a bottle of good champagne.

    .. once every six weeks
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    AveryLP said:

    Carola said:

    Anyone else not sure who's running their council?

    What does it all mean?

    Will my recycling get collected?

    Well at least you have been saved a fiver a week, Carola.

    In these straightened times that's cause for breaking out a bottle of good champagne.

    Plus I may be a squeak closer to that fifty quid I've bet with Neil.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    I saw some blue sky today. I felt really disorientated.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Amazing how the PB Hodges said today was a disaster for Labour....whilst on planet earth, even the right wing rags are *ahem* less than impressed with Mr Cameron.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/isabel-hardman/2014/01/raab-amendment-fails-but-govt-left-looking-weak-and-confused/
  • If Populus chimes in tomorrow with a double digit lead, PBreds might need some Kleenex.

    Ed Balls will then be in line for mass leftie worship....
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    AndyJS said:

    UKIP ought to do well in Chadsmead — it's white, working-class and probably slightly older than average. (I spent a few years living just outside the ward).

    Chadsmead is certainly the most interesting and competitive of today's contests

    Conservatives won in 2011 but candidate disqualified for non attendance
    Lib Dems fielding previous councillor who won the TC by election in the ward in 2012
    Labour fielding candidate who won the much larger CC division last May and was a close 2nd in the TC by election in 2012
    UKIP as you say should do well in this ward .
    General feeliong is it should be between Labour and Lib Dems and Conservatives could even drop from 1st to 4th but very difficult to call .
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    If Populus chimes in tomorrow with a double digit lead, PBreds might need some Kleenex.

    Ed Balls will then be in line for mass leftie worship....

    It would be amazing if it did, but it wont happen. If it did, this place would be deserted and there would be squirrels all over the gaff.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Amazing how the PB Hodges said today was a disaster for Labour....whilst on planet earth, even the right wing rags are *ahem* less than impressed with Mr Cameron.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/isabel-hardman/2014/01/raab-amendment-fails-but-govt-left-looking-weak-and-confused/

    ‘The only thing that bailed out the inept [Tory] whips operation was a more inept Labour whips operation

    It's a Victory for Ed!.
  • If Populus chimes in tomorrow with a double digit lead, PBreds might need some Kleenex.

    Ed Balls will then be in line for mass leftie worship....

    It's an outlier Scrapheap. I suspect the real picture out there has changed little. If it wasn't for that bonkers ComRes on Monday I really doubt whether this week's polling saga would have been so amplified – all the YouGovs are just MOE around 34/39.

    So we should all just shred ComRes and move on.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    You gotta love YouGov for throwing a 10 point lead into the mix!
  • Amazing how the PB Hodges said today was a disaster for Labour....whilst on planet earth, even the right wing rags are *ahem* less than impressed with Mr Cameron.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/isabel-hardman/2014/01/raab-amendment-fails-but-govt-left-looking-weak-and-confused/

    There are number of posters on here who are so blindly partisan that they never see what is in front of them, it's best to ignore those. But there are also many clever Conservative posters –take Tyke for example, exactly right on every call this week. He is often is.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited January 2014
    Tim Montgomerie ‏@TimMontgomerie 27 mins
    "Empty Dave". Does Cameron believe in ANYTHING? @PCollinsTimes gives the PM both barrels in Friday's @TheTimes http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article3990911.ece

    Cameron really needs to get on the front foot with policies and hit the labour party harder,labours getting away with political murder with the policies they have announced.

    He's letting newspapers make up Stories because so far ,like the tweet says,we have empty dave,like this story -

    The sun front page have inside information that the government will be having longer hours for school kids ,this morning the education department says the story is bull,for god sake.

    Please cammers,believe in something ;-)

    With that,I'm off to bed,Dreaming of closer polls ;-)


  • No, the main message we get from UKIP and its supporters is one of anti-immigration and anti-EU. Negativity at every level, even if you agree with the aims. Leaving the EU and reducing immigration are not visions of a better land; they're tools in a toolbox, to be used to achieve an aim, a vision. They are strides along the road, not the destination.

    Reducing immigration and leaving Europe will not lead automatically to a land of milk and honey. There needs to be other grand-vision policies as well. It would be easy to reduce immigration and leave the EU, and have the country a much 'better' place. It would also be possible to do them and leave the country much worse.

    It would be nice if we could use the 2010 GE prospectus as an idea of how UKIP see the country in the future, but sadly that's been disavowed.

    But as I said, the other parties are not any better.

    Nope, that is just your view, not UKIPs. Leaving the EU has always been and is fundamental to a positive vision of Britain's future and is in stark contrast to the view expounded by so many in the Labour, Tory and particularly Lib Dem parties that Britain is too weak and small to have any future outside of a large protectionist bloc.

    One of the groups closest to UKIP and their post-EU vision is Global Britain and the name says it all.

    In fact one might say that as long as we remain within the EU your complaint about a lack of vision by the parties is rather unfair given that they can have no vision for a better Britain as they have so little control over our future with most of our governmental decision making having been ceded to the EU.

    It is funny that when UKIP does come forward with visionary ideas they are accused of living in the past. And yet no other party comes close to a coherent idea of what Britain's place should be in the world beyond just another collection of European regions.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,889
    Yougov good for Labour, but the fundamentals have not changed. The Tories need to win back the voters lost to UKIP (UKIP still high on 12%) and the recent good economic news needs to continue and begin to be felt in peoples' pockets. Labour got a small bounce from the 50p announcement, the Tories got a small boost last week from the economic news, but beyond entrenching 2010, antI-Iraq, left-wing LDs with Labour, the key voters the Tories need to win, ie swing voters who voted for Blair in 2005 and Clegg in 2010 and the voters they have lost to UKIP since 2010 remain in play
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,378
    I knew Lab would be UP!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469


    Interesting exchange and I agree there's something in it. Partly the problem is that the parties recognise that the economic position is difficult (while differing on the causes) so it seems implausible to suggest any grand scheme that costs lots of money. They therefore fall back on modest ideas - an extra benefits test, maybe taking passports away from alleged terrorists, taxation up or down on people earning over £150K, etc. HS2 (of which you may have heard) is the surprising exception that proves the rule.

    Party members do of course have default long-term ideas - Labour's is a sort of efficient Scandinavia, the Tories something like the US plus a functioning health service. But plans to get from here to there are in short supply. You could argue that this shows a certain underlying honesty - the parties are trying not to promise the earth as they've little idea how to deliver it. But lots of voters certainly feel as you do and it produces a morose political climate.

    Amusing YouGov! I suggest the same caution that I suggested for the 2-point leads. But what will Dan Hodges say now?

    I was trying not to mention HS2 - ooops, darned it, look at what you've made me do! That's only the second time this year that I've mentioned the project on here. I'm being good. ;-)

    Privatisation, nationalisation, balancing the books, controlling immigration, controlling benefits are all well and good depending on your viewpoint, but they are just means to an end, not the end in itself.

    A vision would be something like: "By 2030, we will be in the top three of the OECD PISA rankings.", "patient satisfaction in the NHS will be at least 85% by 2020", or "We will double British companies R&D budgets by 2018", or "we will build two new cities by 2030." (*)

    They can then discuss the means to reach those aims. How do we alter education and the NHS to reach them? How do we get companies to invest in R&D? It also requires real political backing, witness the failure of Labour's Ecotowns.

    Instead, what we get is whether Latin should be taught in schools and waiting list targets.

    (*) Yes, these aren't particularly spectacular visions. But I'm tired and my mind's all confuzled.

  • UKIP have a hugely positive vision of Britain - it just happens to be one you apparently disagree with. The vision of an independent trading nation freed from the shackles of EU incompetence and mismanagement where there is real social mobility with education unfettered by failed social experimentation is one I find very appealing.

    That's your vision, not UKIP's. Looking at the tatters of their set of policies (nearly all of which have now been air-brushed out of the record), all that's left is this:

    http://www.ukip.org/issues/policy-pages/what-we-stand-for

    These are anxious and troubled times. As crisis has followed crisis, our politicians are doing nothing in the face of the dangers rearing up all around us.
    Violent crime erupts in our cities. Jobs are lost and our vital NHS and state school places are straining 
under a tide of immigration.
    Another tide of migration comes from the EU as controls on Bulgaria and Romania expire.
    Yet the political class tells us the EU is good for the UK.
    A gulf has opened between the ruling elite and the public. Each of the establishment main parties are now so similar they offer voters no real choice.
    Only outside the EU can we start to solve the problems our country faces.


    UKIP has become an anti-immigration party, and little else. The anti-EU aspect is justified primarily on the (probably spurious) grounds that it would allow the UK to reduce immigration. Note how all six of the headline points in 'What we stand for' are related back to immigration.
    Accusing UKIP of being anti-immigration whilst supporting a party that refused for so long to even consider giving desperately needed asylum to Syrian refugees. Dragged kicking and screaming to a position that was proposed by Farage more than a month ago. Sad indeed to see how nbackward and insular the Tory party has become.

    Immigration is a huge problem for the UK on many levels. In spite of what Robert S believes. At least UKIP has a vision for dealing with the issue and managing immigration at reasonable levels which genuinely benefit the country rather than lurching from one extreme to another and from one stupid, unworkable, headline grabbing idea to another. Cameron has so far managed to annoy both the Indians and the Chinese with his idiotic knee jerk immigration plans. Who is he lining up next to upset I wonder?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    This could well be the 50p feeding through. Or an outlier. One of the two.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Probably an outlier. Lets see the internals.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    isam said:
    No idea , not heard of him , he did not stand for re election when his seat came up in 2012
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Tim Montgomerie ‏@TimMontgomerie 27 mins
    "Empty Dave". Does Cameron believe in ANYTHING? @PCollinsTimes gives the PM both barrels in Friday's @TheTimes http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article3990911.ece

    Cameron really needs to get on the front foot with policies and hit the labour party harder,labours getting away with political murder with the policies they have announced.

    He's letting newspapers make up Stories because so far ,like the tweet says,we have empty dave,like this story -

    The sun front page have inside information that the government will be having longer hours for school kids ,this morning the education department says the story is bull,for god sake.

    Please cammers,believe in something ;-)

    With that,I'm off to bed,Dreaming of closer polls ;-)

    That will be as near as it gets, in a dream :-)

    Meanwhile me and the squirrel have some lifting to do.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Why is it that any participant on QT billed by the BBC as a comedian[enne] is never funny?

    Not even a joke about squirrels!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    Immigration is a huge problem for the UK on many levels. In spite of what Robert S believes. At least UKIP has a vision for dealing with the issue and managing immigration at reasonable levels which genuinely benefit the country rather than lurching from one extreme to another and from one stupid, unworkable, headline grabbing idea to another. Cameron has so far managed to annoy both the Indians and the Chinese with his idiotic knee jerk immigration plans. Who is he lining up next to upset I wonder?

    From the pub...

    I don't disagree that immigration can cause problems.

    My belief is that the problems are irrelevant.

    I believe that states should not have the right to prevent the free movement of people.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Yes Europhile Lib Dems often run right wing talking shops

    Wonder if there's a message board for communists written by Nick Griffin out there
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,889
    Oakeshott at odds with Alexander clearly supporting Labour's 50% while Alexander opposes it and wants to stick wit 45%. LDs now effectively 2 parties, one social democratic with Labour the other traditonal Liberal and with the Tories
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited January 2014


    Accusing UKIP of being anti-immigration whilst supporting a party that refused for so long to even consider giving desperately needed asylum to Syrian refugees. Dragged kicking and screaming to a position that was proposed by Farage more than a month ago. Sad indeed to see how nbackward and insular the Tory party has become.

    Immigration is a huge problem for the UK on many levels. In spite of what Robert S believes. At least UKIP has a vision for dealing with the issue and managing immigration at reasonable levels which genuinely benefit the country rather than lurching from one extreme to another and from one stupid, unworkable, headline grabbing idea to another. Cameron has so far managed to annoy both the Indians and the Chinese with his idiotic knee jerk immigration plans. Who is he lining up next to upset I wonder?

    For heaven's sake, have you actually read the stuff your party is presenting as its primary message? Go on, go to the link I gave, and read what UKIP says it stands for. You'll be shocked, or you will if you are honest with yourself. It has changed hugely in the last few months, and is increasingly becoming an anti-immigration rant.

    Or go to UKIP's home page; top item, 'Common sense on immigration'.

    Of course, that is probably astute enough politically. (They've followed Lynton Crosby's advice and have stripped away the barnacles). But it's not your vision.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    It's hilarious that Richard Nabavi has a go at UKIP for making arguments that will be politically advantageous, when he defends David Cameron's authoritarian spying as "well it's popular, even if it's not right".
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Pulpstar said:

    This could well be the 50p feeding through. Or an outlier. One of the two.

    Easy enough to check against all polling done for January.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    We've had similar fluctuating patterns before on YouGov which is I presume why Mike chose to start doing a weekly average. To be fair though if you really want to smooth out all the spikes and drops you're still far better off looking at all the polls over longer than just a week then you can spot the real trends.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited January 2014
    HYUFD said:

    Oakeshott at odds with Alexander clearly supporting Labour's 50% while Alexander opposes it and wants to stick wit 45%. LDs now effectively 2 parties, one social democratic with Labour the other traditonal Liberal and with the Tories

    Lord Oakeshott has always been at odds with the sane majority of the Lib Dems.

    He is a Cable shill without Cable's brains.

  • HYUFD said:

    Oakeshott at odds with Alexander clearly supporting Labour's 50% while Alexander opposes it and wants to stick wit 45%. LDs now effectively 2 parties, one social democratic with Labour the other traditonal Liberal and with the Tories

    Indeed. Well spotted. There are hardly any of the second group, it's just that the Orange Book have the current power. Presumably they will be swept away by the social democratic wing if the Coalition loses power.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,240
    edited January 2014
    @HYUFD: "Oakeshott at odds with Alexander" is surely news on the scale of "Pope admits his Catholicism"...

    http://gifs.gifbin.com/1239024473_squirrel-catapult.gif" alt="squirrel
  • Socrates said:

    It's hilarious that Richard Nabavi has a go at UKIP for making arguments that will be politically advantageous, when he defends David Cameron's authoritarian spying as "well it's popular, even if it's not right".

    Now please, don't write such garbage. I never said anything remotely like that, and I look forward to your (anonymous) apology for lying about my (non-anonymous) views.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    rcs1000 said:

    Immigration is a huge problem for the UK on many levels. In spite of what Robert S believes. At least UKIP has a vision for dealing with the issue and managing immigration at reasonable levels which genuinely benefit the country rather than lurching from one extreme to another and from one stupid, unworkable, headline grabbing idea to another. Cameron has so far managed to annoy both the Indians and the Chinese with his idiotic knee jerk immigration plans. Who is he lining up next to upset I wonder?

    From the pub...

    I don't disagree that immigration can cause problems.

    My belief is that the problems are irrelevant.

    I believe that states should not have the right to prevent the free movement of people.

    In a democratic society, the state has a responsibility to make policy that benefits the demos it represents. You may be happy to let the government stand by while every public space fills with the sort of scavengers that have set up camp in Marble Arch, but some of us prefer to protect the wellbeing of our fellow citizens, even if they aren't wealthy financiers that can afford a nice mansion to retreat to.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Immigration is a huge problem for the UK on many levels. In spite of what Robert S believes. At least UKIP has a vision for dealing with the issue and managing immigration at reasonable levels which genuinely benefit the country rather than lurching from one extreme to another and from one stupid, unworkable, headline grabbing idea to another. Cameron has so far managed to annoy both the Indians and the Chinese with his idiotic knee jerk immigration plans. Who is he lining up next to upset I wonder?

    From the pub...

    I don't disagree that immigration can cause problems.

    My belief is that the problems are irrelevant.

    I believe that states should not have the right to prevent the free movement of people.

    I believe that States should have very limited powers to represent the will of the people they are elected to serve in those areas where individuals or more local governmental organisations lack the power or scope to do so. As such controlling migration into and out of a country - if that is what the electorate wish - is very much one of the powers that should be exercised by government.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    I see Question Time has three lefties and two righties again...
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    Carola said:

    Anyone else not sure who's running their council?

    What does it all mean?

    Will my recycling get collected?

    In the City of Edinburgh Council, we had a LibDem/SNP coalition, which due to their spectacular incompetence nearly all the LibDems were wiped out (or resigned prior to the election). The SNP Gauleitter,Tsar of anything and everything Cardownie only managed to retain his seat by 8 votes.

    Nowadays, we have a Lab/SNP coalition. The difference being that this time, the Labour leadership have (ex-Labour vice Provost until he found out he was going to be deselected by his local party and jumped ship) SNP leader Steve Cardownie's dangly bits in a proverbial vice.

    Gossip (from SNP friends) has it that Cardownie is not universally loved in his new party and there is a significant minority who would like to see the back of him, preferably with a few knives stuck in it.

    As to recycling, there seems to be a bit of a citizens revolt beginning to happen. Can't speak for other areas of Edinburgh, but locally, when I'm waking the dog, I'm noticing that all the coloured bins/boxes/bags are not being put out with the previous keenness for separating out all the different types of rubbish and placing the correct ones on the right day at the kerb before 08:00 and not the night before etc., etc..
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited January 2014
    Hugh said:

    Pulpstar said:

    This could well be the 50p feeding through. Or an outlier. One of the two.

    Agh.

    It's neither. The polls are static. Utterly static.

    For the lib dems they certainly are. Still flatlining at 10% since late 2010. That's utterly static.

    For labour, the tories and the kippers they've been static since about September last year. Before then however, not so much.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Dominic Raab Channel 4 interview now online. Starts 3m40s into the video.

    http://www.channel4.com/news/raab-immigration-bill-theresa-may-criminal-deportation
This discussion has been closed.