politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Taking stock. Brexit – just where are we and what are the opti
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Taking stock. Brexit – just where are we and what are the options
So a Shopping Centre on the Isle of Man just had their Christmas decorations done… ? pic.twitter.com/4s8MMsd9zn
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Lovely picture0
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"Fiona Onasanya, 35, is accused of using "dishonest means" to dodge a prosecution for driving 41mph in a 30mph zone, a week after being elected.
At the Old Bailey she denied claiming that a Russian man was behind the wheel at the time her car was seen speeding.
She spent Monday to Thursday at Westminster, leaving her car in Cambridge, allowing her mother Paulina Scott, her brother and others to borrow it while she was away.
When a notice of intended prosecution (Nip) arrived in the post, she said she "assumed" she was not driving that Monday because of her Westminster commitments, even though Parliament was in recess.
She left the letter at her mother's house for whoever had been driving her car to deal with, not realising it was her responsibility as keeper of the vehicle, she said."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46263183
The trial continues...
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This is absolutely key
For the new Prime Minister will still face the same constraints as the old one. The EU will still take the same negotiating approach and will not budge much. Indeed, they will be unlikely to negotiate at all unless they believe that whatever comes next will stick – the evidence for which is slight at present.
Parliament will continue to have an absolute majority of MPs who supported Remain at the referendum and who will have the priorities of Remain voters but where a majority of MPs recognise the mandate of the referendum. The Conservative party will remain just as riven on the subject.
Fair enough for trying, I guess, but a new leader with a new stance might find some things a bit easier - support for a different approach - but which would make certain things harder - getting the EU to agree to any further concessions.
I think you are right that this is mostly displacement activity.
I do disagree though with the conclusion. If all the ERG and co care about is Brexiting then perhaps they should back the agreement after all given the options you point out which could result is us remaining. But they actually seem to believe that any Brexit is not sufficient it must be the correct Brexit, so though they would be apoplectic, us remaining would be a better option than this agreement, and as such the agreement not the best outcome.0 -
I'm still in shock nearly two hours after I first saw it.kle4 said:Lovely picture
I still think Alastair's opening is better.0 -
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FPT some seem to think it is the wrong verb to suggest Northern Ireland would be subjugated to the EU by being compelled to follow Single Market rules without having any MEPs or European Council votes etc to shape them.
I would suggest the definition of subjugation is to be subordinate or under the control of an external force. The population of Northern Ireland would not be a part of the EU but forced - without their consent - to follow its rules. That is subjugation. Where other nations have unilaterally chosen to follow Single Market rules that is their choice and they can choose to do so. Compelling people and not letting them democratically choose to diverge is controlling them. It is subjugation.
If Northern Ireland votes (or their representatives vote) to follow SM rules and that is their choice and they can unilaterally end it then that would be a choice and not subjugation. If they have no choice and no say then they are subjugated.0 -
The only losable vote of tonight now I thinkTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
She left the letter at her mother's house for whoever had been driving her car to deal with, not realising it was her responsibility as keeper of the vehicle, she said.TheWhiteRabbit said:"Fiona Onasanya, 35, is accused of using "dishonest means" to dodge a prosecution for driving 41mph in a 30mph zone, a week after being elected.
At the Old Bailey she denied claiming that a Russian man was behind the wheel at the time her car was seen speeding.
She spent Monday to Thursday at Westminster, leaving her car in Cambridge, allowing her mother Paulina Scott, her brother and others to borrow it while she was away.
When a notice of intended prosecution (Nip) arrived in the post, she said she "assumed" she was not driving that Monday because of her Westminster commitments, even though Parliament was in recess.
She left the letter at her mother's house for whoever had been driving her car to deal with, not realising it was her responsibility as keeper of the vehicle, she said."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46263183
The trial continues...
Christine Agnew QC, defending, asked: "Was it your intention that Festus should use his dishonest means to help you out?"
"Absolutely not," the MP replied.
So with that, and the talk of her overwhelming new job as MP and her illness, she is using an 'I am stupid' defence with a side of sympathy for good measure?0 -
That's pretty big. May must be confident that info will help her.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
The transition is identical to what we have now, whilst the FTA is at this point unknown. So "No difference" would be my guess till the end of the transition period, at which point it is total guesswork.Slackbladder said:
That's pretty big. May must be confident that info will help her.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Northern Ireland voted to Remain.Philip_Thompson said:FPT some seem to think it is the wrong verb to suggest Northern Ireland would be subjugated to the EU by being compelled to follow Single Market rules without having any MEPs or European Council votes etc to shape them.
I would suggest the definition of subjugation is to be subordinate or under the control of an external force. The population of Northern Ireland would not be a part of the EU but forced - without their consent - to follow its rules. That is subjugation. Where other nations have unilaterally chosen to follow Single Market rules that is their choice and they can choose to do so. Compelling people and not letting them democratically choose to diverge is controlling them. It is subjugation.
If Northern Ireland votes (or their representatives vote) to follow SM rules and that is their choice and they can unilaterally end it then that would be a choice and not subjugation. If they have no choice and no say then they are subjugated.0 -
Oh well, the defence rests your honour!TheScreamingEagles said:
He said it was a genuine mistakekle4 said:
Wasn't he have supposed to have asked people to break pairing arrangements, how does one do that by accident? And why would people doing worse in the past make something in the present ok?TheScreamingEagles said:
It was a mistake, it wasn't anything like what Labour did in the 1970s.justin124 said:
I thought he was held in contempt prior to the Summer recess on account of cheating.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Julian Smith is held in very high regard or so I hearBig_G_NorthWales said:
The whips are amazing at present. Long may it continueTheWhiteRabbit said:
It was 292 not 295 Tories, but definitely some unforced errors from Labour herePulpstar said:
At least 11 non paired Labourites. Where are they lol ?! I thought Labour wanted a GE !TheWhiteRabbit said:Cons got 295 votes plus two tellers out of ~315
Lab 227 plus two tellers of ~2580 -
There were enough Tory MPs ready to force her hand, defeat looked likely.Slackbladder said:
That's pretty big. May must be confident that info will help her.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
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Big move to help remainers. TM choice is my brexit or no brexitTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
If we are to have a referendum again to see if we really want to Leave with No Deal if May's Deal is rejected it should be two question.
First question Deal v No Deal to determine the most favoured Leave option, then the winner of the first question v Remain.
Then nobody can complain they were not given adequate choice or did not know what they were voting for0 -
Hopefully with economic forecasts looking at the impact of No Deal tooTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Julian follows me on twitter, he's a good egg.kle4 said:
Oh well, the defence rests your honour!TheScreamingEagles said:
He said it was a genuine mistakekle4 said:
Wasn't he have supposed to have asked people to break pairing arrangements, how does one do that by accident? And why would people doing worse in the past make something in the present ok?TheScreamingEagles said:
It was a mistake, it wasn't anything like what Labour did in the 1970s.justin124 said:
I thought he was held in contempt prior to the Summer recess on account of cheating.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Julian Smith is held in very high regard or so I hearBig_G_NorthWales said:
The whips are amazing at present. Long may it continueTheWhiteRabbit said:
It was 292 not 295 Tories, but definitely some unforced errors from Labour herePulpstar said:
At least 11 non paired Labourites. Where are they lol ?! I thought Labour wanted a GE !TheWhiteRabbit said:Cons got 295 votes plus two tellers out of ~315
Lab 227 plus two tellers of ~2580 -
... Brexit is almost impossible to stop?Jonathan said:0 -
4 maggies is truly terrifying.Jonathan said:0 -
They already did. Tried to keep it under wraps because it wasn't a good news story.TheScreamingEagles said:
Edit here: https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be
UK 5% worse off under a May type deal.0 -
No they did not. Northern Ireland voted for the United Kingdom to remain.TheScreamingEagles said:
Northern Ireland voted to Remain.Philip_Thompson said:FPT some seem to think it is the wrong verb to suggest Northern Ireland would be subjugated to the EU by being compelled to follow Single Market rules without having any MEPs or European Council votes etc to shape them.
I would suggest the definition of subjugation is to be subordinate or under the control of an external force. The population of Northern Ireland would not be a part of the EU but forced - without their consent - to follow its rules. That is subjugation. Where other nations have unilaterally chosen to follow Single Market rules that is their choice and they can choose to do so. Compelling people and not letting them democratically choose to diverge is controlling them. It is subjugation.
If Northern Ireland votes (or their representatives vote) to follow SM rules and that is their choice and they can unilaterally end it then that would be a choice and not subjugation. If they have no choice and no say then they are subjugated.
The question of Northern Ireland separate to the United Kingdom was not on the ballot paper.0 -
No I don't think that. But I do think that any deal that is signed has to be signed off by the European Council (QMV IIRC) and the European Parliament, and that imposes a time limit. At some point it will become too late for any deal because it can't be signed off in time, and I think we're pretty close to that (my head canon says mid December but I could be wrong). Bear in mind there are European Parliament elections in 2019.Philip_Thompson said:Davis is right. While the EU are pretending now this deal is the only way to get a transition that is a nonsense. All a transition is, is an extension of us continuing to pay them billions and follow their rules. If we reject this deal and a new PM goes to Brussels and says "time's up, this deal is dead but we need something new so here is £39bn pounds and we will follow your rules for the next 2 years now let's talk" then do you really think Brussels is going to say no?
Plus any bill has to get thru the UK Parliament: readings, Commons, Lords, whatever.
Neither the EU nor the UK can turn on a sixpence and this should be borne in mind.
[EDIT: unquote myself]0 -
24th. Like the latest letter?0
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So they could pretty much say anything. I mean, it is not as though people believe economic forecasts they don't like anyway.Pulpstar said:
The transition is identical to what we have now, whilst the FTA is at this point unknown. So "No difference" would be my guess till the end of the transition period, at which point it is total guesswork.Slackbladder said:
That's pretty big. May must be confident that info will help her.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'd guess it will show that economically remain is best of all, otherwise they'd have been trumpeted all along.0 -
Well the answer is to remain which is increasingly likelyPhilip_Thompson said:
No they did not. Northern Ireland voted for the United Kingdom to remain.TheScreamingEagles said:
Northern Ireland voted to Remain.Philip_Thompson said:FPT some seem to think it is the wrong verb to suggest Northern Ireland would be subjugated to the EU by being compelled to follow Single Market rules without having any MEPs or European Council votes etc to shape them.
I would suggest the definition of subjugation is to be subordinate or under the control of an external force. The population of Northern Ireland would not be a part of the EU but forced - without their consent - to follow its rules. That is subjugation. Where other nations have unilaterally chosen to follow Single Market rules that is their choice and they can choose to do so. Compelling people and not letting them democratically choose to diverge is controlling them. It is subjugation.
If Northern Ireland votes (or their representatives vote) to follow SM rules and that is their choice and they can unilaterally end it then that would be a choice and not subjugation. If they have no choice and no say then they are subjugated.
The question of Northern Ireland separate to the United Kingdom was not on the ballot paper.0 -
FPT
Given many objections seem to be around following EU rules during the years of transition how exactly does also agreeing to that resolve those objections? If people are arguing against the rules of the withdrawal agreement, then we cannot very well discuss what the rules of the withdrawal agreement will be during the withdrawal, surely?Philip_Thompson said:
Davis is right. While the EU are pretending now this deal is the only way to get a transition that is a nonsense. All a transition is, is an extension of us continuing to pay them billions and follow their rules. If we reject this deal and a new PM goes to Brussels and says "time's up, this deal is dead but we need something new so here is £39bn pounds and we will follow your rules for the next 2 years now let's talk" then do you really think Brussels is going to say no?Alistair said:
Actually made me angry this one.Scott_P said:
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Remaining would be more democratic than this deal for Northern Ireland I agree.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Well the answer is to remain which is increasingly likelyPhilip_Thompson said:
No they did not. Northern Ireland voted for the United Kingdom to remain.TheScreamingEagles said:
Northern Ireland voted to Remain.Philip_Thompson said:FPT some seem to think it is the wrong verb to suggest Northern Ireland would be subjugated to the EU by being compelled to follow Single Market rules without having any MEPs or European Council votes etc to shape them.
I would suggest the definition of subjugation is to be subordinate or under the control of an external force. The population of Northern Ireland would not be a part of the EU but forced - without their consent - to follow its rules. That is subjugation. Where other nations have unilaterally chosen to follow Single Market rules that is their choice and they can choose to do so. Compelling people and not letting them democratically choose to diverge is controlling them. It is subjugation.
If Northern Ireland votes (or their representatives vote) to follow SM rules and that is their choice and they can unilaterally end it then that would be a choice and not subjugation. If they have no choice and no say then they are subjugated.
The question of Northern Ireland separate to the United Kingdom was not on the ballot paper.0 -
That doesn't necessarily follow. What we have now is identical to what we had two years ago yet we have underperformed by 2% of GDP already.Pulpstar said:
The transition is identical to what we have now, whilst the FTA is at this point unknown. So "No difference" would be my guess till the end of the transition period, at which point it is total guesswork.Slackbladder said:
That's pretty big. May must be confident that info will help her.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I have no objections at all to temporary arrangements nor do most others. Temporary obligations for temporary benefits are reasonable. If we want a transition we should and will have to follow the rules during the transition.kle4 said:FPT
Given many objections seem to be around following EU rules during the years of transition how exactly does also agreeing to that resolve those objections? If people are arguing against the rules of the withdrawal agreement, then we cannot very well discuss what the rules of the withdrawal agreement will be during the withdrawal, surely?Philip_Thompson said:
Davis is right. While the EU are pretending now this deal is the only way to get a transition that is a nonsense. All a transition is, is an extension of us continuing to pay them billions and follow their rules. If we reject this deal and a new PM goes to Brussels and says "time's up, this deal is dead but we need something new so here is £39bn pounds and we will follow your rules for the next 2 years now let's talk" then do you really think Brussels is going to say no?Alistair said:
Actually made me angry this one.Scott_P said:
That's not the problem. The problem is that we are permanently subjugating some of our populace to permanently follow their rules in exchange for a temporary transition.
Temporary obligations for temporary benefits is reasonable.
Permanent obligations for temporary benefits is utter madness.0 -
No we havent.FF43 said:
That doesn't necessarily follow. What we have now is identical to what we had two years ago yet we have underperformed by 2% of GDP already.Pulpstar said:
The transition is identical to what we have now, whilst the FTA is at this point unknown. So "No difference" would be my guess till the end of the transition period, at which point it is total guesswork.Slackbladder said:
That's pretty big. May must be confident that info will help her.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/
If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first0 -
Is there only one conceivable remain? Surely there are an infinite number of possible remain outcomes just as there were an infinite number of possible leave (and remain) outcomes in the 2016 referendum.HYUFD said:If we are to have a referendum again to see if we really want to Leave with No Deal if May's Deal is rejected it should be two question.
First question Deal v No Deal to determine the most favoured Leave option, then the winner of the first question v Remain.
Then nobody can complain they were not given adequate choice or did not know what they were voting for
Indeed the notion that was only one remain outcome underscores that many of those making claims about being able to influence the EU from within didn't believe what they were saying during the campaign.0 -
Spain can't actually veto the deal from the EU sideHYUFD said:Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/
If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first0 -
May is going to turn up on Sunday and she will be ambushed. The EU will have all the "extras" the countries want in the deal and it will be no more negotiation agree this now.HYUFD said:Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/
If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first
She is silly going to this meeting before getting the commons to vote, at least if that had happened then she could use the argument that the commons had already voted and she could not go against it.0 -
Indeed so. If several EU countries want to revisit the agreements they can hardly complain if the UK wants to do likewise.HYUFD said:Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/
If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first0 -
This bit is QMV right?TheWhiteRabbit said:
Spain can't actually veto the deal from the EU sideHYUFD said:Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/
If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first0 -
I can hardly stop laughing.TheScreamingEagles said:
Pathetic.
And surely they will now turn on each other, as they realise that some were actually lying...0 -
QMV on Europe's side isn't it ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
Spain can't actually veto the deal from the EU sideHYUFD said:Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/
If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first0 -
Thank you for the thread Alastair and you have hit the nail on the head
Amazing over the months and months of us generally disagreeing we are now on the same page
I have said on many occasions I am open to reasoned argument and my position has moved firmly to TM brexit or no brexit
I would also say I want TM to take this through but then she must stand down in early spring to allow a proper leader election to take place.
She will always be respected for her service, decency and determination to make brexit work as best as possible. I do not think history will be unkind to her0 -
YesTheScreamingEagles said:
This bit is QMV right?TheWhiteRabbit said:
Spain can't actually veto the deal from the EU sideHYUFD said:Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/
If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first0 -
Nearly half (£430m) of the DUP's £1bn has already been paid according to this report:
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/parliament-and-elections/government/confidence-and-supply-northern-irelands-1-billion/0 -
How can the hoc vote when the political declaration is still in negotiation and will only be available at the conclusion of the councilralphmalph said:
May is going to turn up on Sunday and she will be ambushed. The EU will have all the "extras" the countries want in the deal and it will be no more negotiation agree this now.HYUFD said:Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/
If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first
She is silly going to this meeting before getting the commons to vote, at least if that had happened then she could use the argument that the commons had already voted and she could not go against it.0 -
"She could resign. She could put the vote forward again – an option that has been touted on the basis that the markets would go haywire at this point. She could propose a referendum on her deal (probably vs Remain). Or, the draft having been rejected, she could propose a referendum on Remaining after all, as opposed to leaving the EU without a deal. Or, I suppose, she could do nothing. It’s easy to see the negatives of all these options. The bloody difficult woman would have a bloody difficult decision."
Presumably the way forward would at least in part be driven by the size of the defeat. Single figures would be "let's do that again" territory presumably with some imagined concession to try and allow some face saving.
Losing by 30, 40, whatever would be a totally different kettle of fish, surely.0 -
Voice of reason as ever. If only more Tories were like you Big_G!Big_G_NorthWales said:Thank you for the thread Alastair and you have hit the nail on the head
Amazing over the months and months of us generally disagreeing we are now on the same page
I have said on many occasions I am open to reasoned argument and my position has moved firmly to TM brexit or no brexit
I would also say I want TM to take this through but then she must stand down in early spring to allow a proper leader election to take place.
She will always be respected for her service, decency and determination to make brexit work as best as possible. I do not think history will be unkind to her0 -
The EU can put whatever conditions it likes into the treaty as long as the UK agrees. Then the bespoke veto is in there. In practice Spain probably has a veto anyway. It's very hard to get these big agreements away if someone really objects.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Spain can't actually veto the deal from the EU sideHYUFD said:Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/
If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first0 -
It's Schrodinger's Brexit. It exists in all the states between Full Leave and Full Remain simultaneously until negotiations completeinitforthemoney said:
Is there only one conceivable remain? Surely there are an infinite number of possible remain outcomes just as there were an infinite number of possible leave (and remain) outcomes in the 2016 referendum.HYUFD said:If we are to have a referendum again to see if we really want to Leave with No Deal if May's Deal is rejected it should be two question.
First question Deal v No Deal to determine the most favoured Leave option, then the winner of the first question v Remain.
Then nobody can complain they were not given adequate choice or did not know what they were voting for
Indeed the notion that was only one remain outcome underscores that many of those making claims about being able to influence the EU from within didn't believe what they were saying during the campaign.0 -
Surely he is too sensible for the current Tory party?Benpointer said:
Voice of reason as ever. If only more Tories were like you Big_G!Big_G_NorthWales said:Thank you for the thread Alastair and you have hit the nail on the head
Amazing over the months and months of us generally disagreeing we are now on the same page
I have said on many occasions I am open to reasoned argument and my position has moved firmly to TM brexit or no brexit
I would also say I want TM to take this through but then she must stand down in early spring to allow a proper leader election to take place.
She will always be respected for her service, decency and determination to make brexit work as best as possible. I do not think history will be unkind to her0 -
The WA is QMV, the FTA requires unanimity.TheScreamingEagles said:
This bit is QMV right?TheWhiteRabbit said:
Spain can't actually veto the deal from the EU sideHYUFD said:Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/
If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first
In practice these things arise from a consensus rather than a vote of any sort.0 -
Funny, but not quite as good as "caught between the devil and the DUP", IMO.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I think one of the reasons that we are here is that anti-EU politicians have refused to compromise. They have been refusing to compromise for decades. Had they compromised in the 1980s, or the 90s, or in any previous decade then we would not be in this situation.
Psychologically it is impossible for them to start compromising now. For one thing not compromising has brought them so far, so why change approach at this late stage, when they are so close?
Bearing this in mind it would be a mistake for anyone to attempt to compromise with them. They aren't interested. They are likely to find a reason to vote against any deal. Broadly speaking I would ignore them.0 -
True though if more countries follow suit it could pose problems in ensuring it has enough votes to passTheWhiteRabbit said:
Spain can't actually veto the deal from the EU sideHYUFD said:Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/
If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first0 -
Because it should still not be being negotiated. It has been put the the cabinet for approval both WDA and the political text. If it is still fluid how can the cabinet agree it?Big_G_NorthWales said:
How can the hoc vote when the political declaration is still in negotiation and will only be available at the conclusion of the councilralphmalph said:
May is going to turn up on Sunday and she will be ambushed. The EU will have all the "extras" the countries want in the deal and it will be no more negotiation agree this now.HYUFD said:Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/
If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first
She is silly going to this meeting before getting the commons to vote, at least if that had happened then she could use the argument that the commons had already voted and she could not go against it.
It should have been finalised, then put to the cabinet, agreed or not, then she should turn up in Brussels.0 -
Be fair, I think her complaint is more likely about non EU migration.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I don't think Spain can veto the deal, as it will be voted on by the European Council under QMV. They will be able to veto the future relationship treaties that will be negotiated during the transitional period as those will require unanimity.HYUFD said:Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/
If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first0 -
Thats very kind Ben. Thank youBenpointer said:
Voice of reason as ever. If only more Tories were like you Big_G!Big_G_NorthWales said:Thank you for the thread Alastair and you have hit the nail on the head
Amazing over the months and months of us generally disagreeing we are now on the same page
I have said on many occasions I am open to reasoned argument and my position has moved firmly to TM brexit or no brexit
I would also say I want TM to take this through but then she must stand down in early spring to allow a proper leader election to take place.
She will always be respected for her service, decency and determination to make brexit work as best as possible. I do not think history will be unkind to her0 -
I agree but where there's a will there's a way and the EU are experts at reaching 11th hour can-kicking agreements. A temporary transition where we agree to temporarily follow EU rules in exchange for bucket loads of money, no say in the rules in the transition and we avoid the cliffedge for now but still have it at the end of the transition is just the sort of can-kicking we should expect. What's remarkable is that in exchange for that can kicking we aren't at the moment selling the family silver - we are for a temporary deal actually selling one of the family.viewcode said:
No I don't think that. But I do think that any deal that is signed has to be signed off by the European Council (QMV IIRC) and the European Parliament, and that imposes a time limit. At some point it will become too late for any deal because it can't be signed off in time, and I think we're pretty close to that (my head canon says mid December but I could be wrong). Bear in mind there are European Parliament elections in 2019.Philip_Thompson said:Davis is right. While the EU are pretending now this deal is the only way to get a transition that is a nonsense. All a transition is, is an extension of us continuing to pay them billions and follow their rules. If we reject this deal and a new PM goes to Brussels and says "time's up, this deal is dead but we need something new so here is £39bn pounds and we will follow your rules for the next 2 years now let's talk" then do you really think Brussels is going to say no?
Plus any bill has to get thru the UK Parliament: readings, Commons, Lords, whatever.
Neither the EU nor the UK can turn on a sixpence and this should be borne in mind.
[EDIT: unquote myself]
A minimalist can kicking deal with a temporary A50 extension taking us to the point just before the European Parliament is dissolved in order to allow time for ratification ought to be possible. They get the money want, avoid the cliff edge we both want and get their rules enforced in our country while we sort this mess out. Win, win for them - even if they'd like to have won more, rejecting that won't make sense if there is no alternative and no time for an alternative.0 -
Some of us have to fight for our party against extremesIanB2 said:
Surely he is too sensible for the current Tory party?Benpointer said:
Voice of reason as ever. If only more Tories were like you Big_G!Big_G_NorthWales said:Thank you for the thread Alastair and you have hit the nail on the head
Amazing over the months and months of us generally disagreeing we are now on the same page
I have said on many occasions I am open to reasoned argument and my position has moved firmly to TM brexit or no brexit
I would also say I want TM to take this through but then she must stand down in early spring to allow a proper leader election to take place.
She will always be respected for her service, decency and determination to make brexit work as best as possible. I do not think history will be unkind to her0 -
Indeed maybe Karen views herself as a European in which case she's not an immigrant [doubt it though].Pulpstar said:
Be fair, I think her complaint is more likely about non EU migration.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
The Remain vote would be to stay on current terms given we are still in the EU until next March. Posing hypotheticals is pointless and unnecessarily complicated given Remain was already as is in the first vote.initforthemoney said:
Is there only one conceivable remain? Surely there are an infinite number of possible remain outcomes just as there were an infinite number of possible leave (and remain) outcomes in the 2016 referendum.HYUFD said:If we are to have a referendum again to see if we really want to Leave with No Deal if May's Deal is rejected it should be two question.
First question Deal v No Deal to determine the most favoured Leave option, then the winner of the first question v Remain.
Then nobody can complain they were not given adequate choice or did not know what they were voting for
Indeed the notion that was only one remain outcome underscores that many of those making claims about being able to influence the EU from within didn't believe what they were saying during the campaign.
Deal, No Deal and Remain should be the maximum number of combinations allowed
0 -
Yup, thanks to the wisdom of Gordon Brown and the Lisbon Treaty.TheScreamingEagles said:
This bit is QMV right?TheWhiteRabbit said:
Spain can't actually veto the deal from the EU sideHYUFD said:Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/
If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first0 -
But it has been finalised and put to the cabinet, it was put to the cabinet before Raab resigned remember?ralphmalph said:
Because it should still not be being negotiated. It has been put the the cabinet for approval both WDA and the political text. If it is still fluid how can the cabinet agree it?Big_G_NorthWales said:
How can the hoc vote when the political declaration is still in negotiation and will only be available at the conclusion of the councilralphmalph said:
May is going to turn up on Sunday and she will be ambushed. The EU will have all the "extras" the countries want in the deal and it will be no more negotiation agree this now.HYUFD said:Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/
If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first
She is silly going to this meeting before getting the commons to vote, at least if that had happened then she could use the argument that the commons had already voted and she could not go against it.
It should have been finalised, then put to the cabinet, agreed or not, then she should turn up in Brussels.
The process is that the cabinet agrees, we go to Brussels and confirm we agree (and other nations, the Commission etc confirm they agree). Then once agreed it goes to Parliaments for ratification.0 -
Given the Commons will almost certainly vote it down at least on the first vote it gives her some leeway if she can say the EU broke the terms of the Deal first if there is to be any renegotiationralphmalph said:
May is going to turn up on Sunday and she will be ambushed. The EU will have all the "extras" the countries want in the deal and it will be no more negotiation agree this now.HYUFD said:Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/
If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first
She is silly going to this meeting before getting the commons to vote, at least if that had happened then she could use the argument that the commons had already voted and she could not go against it.0 -
The beloved EU wouldn't do anything so nasty!ralphmalph said:
May is going to turn up on Sunday and she will be ambushed. The EU will have all the "extras" the countries want in the deal and it will be no more negotiation agree this now.HYUFD said:Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/
If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first
She is silly going to this meeting before getting the commons to vote, at least if that had happened then she could use the argument that the commons had already voted and she could not go against it.
0 -
In any case Spain isn't talking about vetoing the whole deal. It's talking about vetoing its application to Gibraltar.FF43 said:
The EU can put whatever conditions it likes into the treaty as long as the UK agrees. Then the bespoke veto is in there. In practice Spain probably has a veto anyway. It's very hard to get these big agreements away if someone really objects.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Spain can't actually veto the deal from the EU sideHYUFD said:Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/
If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first0 -
So the government should have lost this evening yet won by 5. Only 227 Labour MPs voted for the Corbyn amendment -where on earth were the other 30? The Labour whips appear to be as clueless as the ERG in marshalling their forces.0
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In better news, the Dutch have grabbed a draw against the Germans and put France out of the nations league0
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Wasn't it Mrs Thatchers Single European Act that brought in QMV?edmundintokyo said:
Yup, thanks to the wisdom of Gordon Brown and the Lisbon Treaty.TheScreamingEagles said:
This bit is QMV right?TheWhiteRabbit said:
Spain can't actually veto the deal from the EU sideHYUFD said:Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/
If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first0 -
No 48 letters?0
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You do lack knowledge sadly. The WDA is the treaty to take us out of the EU and allow the transition period and that will not change. However the poltical declaration that was 7 pages is the part TM is negotiating this week and is now in excess of 20 pages. It is that declaration that we still awaitralphmalph said:
Because it should still not be being negotiated. It has been put the the cabinet for approval both WDA and the political text. If it is still fluid how can the cabinet agree it?Big_G_NorthWales said:
How can the hoc vote when the political declaration is still in negotiation and will only be available at the conclusion of the councilralphmalph said:
May is going to turn up on Sunday and she will be ambushed. The EU will have all the "extras" the countries want in the deal and it will be no more negotiation agree this now.HYUFD said:Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/
If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first
She is silly going to this meeting before getting the commons to vote, at least if that had happened then she could use the argument that the commons had already voted and she could not go against it.
It should have been finalised, then put to the cabinet, agreed or not, then she should turn up in Brussels.0 -
Only if she walks.HYUFD said:
Given the Commons will almost certainly vote it down at least on the first vote it gives her some leeway if she can say the EU broke the terms of the Deal first if there is to be any renegotiationralphmalph said:
May is going to turn up on Sunday and she will be ambushed. The EU will have all the "extras" the countries want in the deal and it will be no more negotiation agree this now.HYUFD said:Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/
If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first
She is silly going to this meeting before getting the commons to vote, at least if that had happened then she could use the argument that the commons had already voted and she could not go against it.0 -
I suppose Lab wasn't expecting the DUP to do what they did and thought the vote was a forgone conclusion.Chris_A said:So the government should have lost this evening yet won by 5. Only 227 Labour MPs voted for the Corbyn amendment -where on earth were the other 30? The Labour whips appear to be as clueless as the ERG in marshalling their forces.
Bet they won't be making that mistake again now its open warfare between DUP and Theresa May.0 -
Is an Act required to ratify the WA though? AIUI a normal treaty can have its ratification vetoed by either House of Parliament passing a motion against ratification within three weeks of the treaty being laid before Parliament (the old Ponsonby rule made into statute by the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act 2010). The "meaningful vote" provision for the WA means that a positive motion to ratify it has to pass the Commons (and the Lords? not sure of that).viewcode said:
Plus any bill has to get thru the UK Parliament: readings, Commons, Lords, whatever.Philip_Thompson said:Davis is right. While the EU are pretending now this deal is the only way to get a transition that is a nonsense. All a transition is, is an extension of us continuing to pay them billions and follow their rules. If we reject this deal and a new PM goes to Brussels and says "time's up, this deal is dead but we need something new so here is £39bn pounds and we will follow your rules for the next 2 years now let's talk" then do you really think Brussels is going to say no?
As all the legislation to implement Brexit has now been passed, it's unclear to me that a further Act to ratify the WA is required.0 -
She won't do that but it might give her room to make some minor tweaksralphmalph said:
Only if she walks.HYUFD said:
Given the Commons will almost certainly vote it down at least on the first vote it gives her some leeway if she can say the EU broke the terms of the Deal first if there is to be any renegotiationralphmalph said:
May is going to turn up on Sunday and she will be ambushed. The EU will have all the "extras" the countries want in the deal and it will be no more negotiation agree this now.HYUFD said:Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/
If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first
She is silly going to this meeting before getting the commons to vote, at least if that had happened then she could use the argument that the commons had already voted and she could not go against it.0 -
So are you saying the cabinet agreed the WDA but has not agreed the political statement?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do lack knowledge sadly. The WDA is the treaty to take us out of the EU and allow the transition period and that will not change. However the poltical declaration that was 7 pages is the part TM is negotiating this week and is now in excess of 20 pages. It is that declaration that we still awaitralphmalph said:
Because it should still not be being negotiated. It has been put the the cabinet for approval both WDA and the political text. If it is still fluid how can the cabinet agree it?Big_G_NorthWales said:
How can the hoc vote when the political declaration is still in negotiation and will only be available at the conclusion of the councilralphmalph said:
May is going to turn up on Sunday and she will be ambushed. The EU will have all the "extras" the countries want in the deal and it will be no more negotiation agree this now.HYUFD said:Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/
If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first
She is silly going to this meeting before getting the commons to vote, at least if that had happened then she could use the argument that the commons had already voted and she could not go against it.
It should have been finalised, then put to the cabinet, agreed or not, then she should turn up in Brussels.
Edit the WDA has already changed post cabinet the 20xx is being defined.
0 -
So we've got to Monday night and still no 48 letters.
ERG = Piss And Wind confirmed.0 -
Yes, I suspect a lot of Brexit voters thought they were voting to stop non-EU migration.Pulpstar said:
Be fair, I think her complaint is more likely about non EU migration.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I didn't realise there was a slightly differently coloured unicorn of deal which could be approved by the HoC.steve_garner said:
Indeed so. If several EU countries want to revisit the agreements they can hardly complain if the UK wants to do likewise.HYUFD said:Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/
If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first
0 -
Well duh it hasn't passed, others may be waiting for the deal to fail first. But he's got some cheek talking about spin and it being a process not a moment - it's a process you bozos not only threatened to bring about for 6 months, bit also repeatedly said you were close to or even over the threshold in leaks to the media, so it would be your spin they fell for.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
The man's a fool!TheScreamingEagles said:
If your going to launch a coup to oust the Prime Minister you'd better make sure you've got the numbers first!0 -
The cabinet has agreed for TM to negotiate this week, attend the council next sunday, and bring the deal back to the hocralphmalph said:
So are you saying the cabinet agreed the WDA but has not agreed the political statement?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do lack knowledge sadly. The WDA is the treaty to take us out of the EU and allow the transition period and that will not change. However the poltical declaration that was 7 pages is the part TM is negotiating this week and is now in excess of 20 pages. It is that declaration that we still awaitralphmalph said:
Because it should still not be being negotiated. It has been put the the cabinet for approval both WDA and the political text. If it is still fluid how can the cabinet agree it?Big_G_NorthWales said:
How can the hoc vote when the political declaration is still in negotiation and will only be available at the conclusion of the councilralphmalph said:
May is going to turn up on Sunday and she will be ambushed. The EU will have all the "extras" the countries want in the deal and it will be no more negotiation agree this now.HYUFD said:Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/
If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first
She is silly going to this meeting before getting the commons to vote, at least if that had happened then she could use the argument that the commons had already voted and she could not go against it.
It should have been finalised, then put to the cabinet, agreed or not, then she should turn up in Brussels.
Edit the WDA has already changed post cabinet the 20xx is being defined.0 -
I'd love to be a fly on the wall when the Indian engineer and South African nurse move in as neighbours in the concessions made in the trade agreements signed with those countries.Alistair said:
Yes, I suspect a lot of Brexit voters thought they were voting to stop non-EU migration.Pulpstar said:
Be fair, I think her complaint is more likely about non EU migration.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
As i said earlier re: Corbyn, if we get to the point of "11th hour" can kicking to 'avoid' no deal brexit then no deal brexit will already have happened. Because everyone will have had to take action, implement contingency plans, market crashes etc etc on the basis that it will. People and businesses are currently making contingency plans (and spending lots of money) on the basis that no deal might happen. There comes a point when the contingencies have to be put into action.Philip_Thompson said:
I agree but where there's a will there's a way and the EU are experts at reaching 11th hour can-kicking agreements. A temporary transition where we agree to temporarily follow EU rules in exchange for bucket loads of money, no say in the rules in the transition and we avoid the cliffedge for now but still have it at the end of the transition is just the sort of can-kicking we should expect. What's remarkable is that in exchange for that can kicking we aren't at the moment selling the family silver - we are for a temporary deal actually selling one of the family.viewcode said:
No I don't think that. But I do think that any deal that is signed has to be signed off by the European Council (QMV IIRC) and the European Parliament, and that imposes a time limit. At some point it will become too late for any deal because it can't be signed off in time, and I think we're pretty close to that (my head canon says mid December but I could be wrong). Bear in mind there are European Parliament elections in 2019.Philip_Thompson said:Davis is right. While the EU are pretending now this deal is the only way to get a transition that is a nonsense. All a transition is, is an extension of us continuing to pay them billions and follow their rules. If we reject this deal and a new PM goes to Brussels and says "time's up, this deal is dead but we need something new so here is £39bn pounds and we will follow your rules for the next 2 years now let's talk" then do you really think Brussels is going to say no?
Plus any bill has to get thru the UK Parliament: readings, Commons, Lords, whatever.
Neither the EU nor the UK can turn on a sixpence and this should be borne in mind.
[EDIT: unquote myself]
A minimalist can kicking deal with a temporary A50 extension taking us to the point just before the European Parliament is dissolved in order to allow time for ratification ought to be possible. They get the money want, avoid the cliff edge we both want and get their rules enforced in our country while we sort this mess out. Win, win for them - even if they'd like to have won more, rejecting that won't make sense if there is no alternative and no time for an alternative.
0 -
So no vnoc until after the vote in the middle of next month. The constituency chairs must have scared some of them witless. It is so funny if it was not so seriousTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
So Theresa May's sold Brexiteers down the river. She's sold Northern Ireland down the river.
Presumably she'll be selling Gibraltar down the river next?0 -
Yes, but a new arrangement for member state that was leaving would have needed a treaty, which would have needed unanimity until Lisbon made a QMV process for someone to leave.Foxy said:
Wasn't it Mrs Thatchers Single European Act that brought in QMV?edmundintokyo said:
Yup, thanks to the wisdom of Gordon Brown and the Lisbon Treaty.TheScreamingEagles said:
This bit is QMV right?TheWhiteRabbit said:
Spain can't actually veto the deal from the EU sideHYUFD said:Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/
If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first0 -
The discovery that the ERG are eight letters short of a coup shouldn't come as any surprise.Big_G_NorthWales said:
So no vnoc until after the vote in the mddle of next month. The constituency chairs must have scare some of them witless. It is so funny if it was not so seriousTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Laugh? I nearly died...GIN1138 said:
The man's a fool!TheScreamingEagles said:
If your going to launch a coup to oust the Prime Minister you'd better make sure you've got the numbers first!
I think we are talking full-scale amateur hour here.0 -
I've had enough of the entire shit show.Big_G_NorthWales said:
So no vnoc until after the vote in the mddle of next month. The constituency chairs must have scare some of them witless. It is so funny if it was not so seriousTheScreamingEagles said:
I just want the Conservatives gone now. Theresa. Boris. JRM. Baker. Soubry. Gove. Hammond.
Please begone all of them.0 -
TM has achieved a deal beyond the wildest expectations of David Cameron and would have been taken with open arms by ERG at that time. They have simply become too greadyGIN1138 said:So Theresa May's sold Brexiteers down the river. She's sold Northern Ireland down the river.
Presumably she'll be selling Gibraltar down the river next?0 -
Baker is surprised.IanB2 said:
The discovery that the ERG are eight letters short of a coup shouldn't come as any surprise.Big_G_NorthWales said:
So no vnoc until after the vote in the mddle of next month. The constituency chairs must have scare some of them witless. It is so funny if it was not so seriousTheScreamingEagles said:
He thought he had 50-odd.
0 -
My parents are Brexiteers and they would completely disagree; both very supportive of the deal.GIN1138 said:So Theresa May's sold Brexiteers down the river. She's sold Northern Ireland down the river.
Presumably she'll be selling Gibraltar down the river next?
As others have commented, this is the danger of misrepresenting the 52 per cent leave vote as "one like-minded entity"; wasn't true on the day of the vote and even less true now.0 -
You may have a long waitGIN1138 said:
I've had enough of the entire shit show.Big_G_NorthWales said:
So no vnoc until after the vote in the mddle of next month. The constituency chairs must have scare some of them witless. It is so funny if it was not so seriousTheScreamingEagles said:
I just want the Conservatives gone now. Theresa. Boris. JRM. Baker. Soubry. Gove. Hammond.
Please begone all of them.0
