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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Taking stock. Brexit – just where are we and what are the opti
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Taking stock. Brexit – just where are we and what are the options
So a Shopping Centre on the Isle of Man just had their Christmas decorations done… ? pic.twitter.com/4s8MMsd9zn
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At the Old Bailey she denied claiming that a Russian man was behind the wheel at the time her car was seen speeding.
She spent Monday to Thursday at Westminster, leaving her car in Cambridge, allowing her mother Paulina Scott, her brother and others to borrow it while she was away.
When a notice of intended prosecution (Nip) arrived in the post, she said she "assumed" she was not driving that Monday because of her Westminster commitments, even though Parliament was in recess.
She left the letter at her mother's house for whoever had been driving her car to deal with, not realising it was her responsibility as keeper of the vehicle, she said."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46263183
The trial continues...
For the new Prime Minister will still face the same constraints as the old one. The EU will still take the same negotiating approach and will not budge much. Indeed, they will be unlikely to negotiate at all unless they believe that whatever comes next will stick – the evidence for which is slight at present.
Parliament will continue to have an absolute majority of MPs who supported Remain at the referendum and who will have the priorities of Remain voters but where a majority of MPs recognise the mandate of the referendum. The Conservative party will remain just as riven on the subject.
Fair enough for trying, I guess, but a new leader with a new stance might find some things a bit easier - support for a different approach - but which would make certain things harder - getting the EU to agree to any further concessions.
I think you are right that this is mostly displacement activity.
I do disagree though with the conclusion. If all the ERG and co care about is Brexiting then perhaps they should back the agreement after all given the options you point out which could result is us remaining. But they actually seem to believe that any Brexit is not sufficient it must be the correct Brexit, so though they would be apoplectic, us remaining would be a better option than this agreement, and as such the agreement not the best outcome.
I still think Alastair's opening is better.
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1064627855831826432
I would suggest the definition of subjugation is to be subordinate or under the control of an external force. The population of Northern Ireland would not be a part of the EU but forced - without their consent - to follow its rules. That is subjugation. Where other nations have unilaterally chosen to follow Single Market rules that is their choice and they can choose to do so. Compelling people and not letting them democratically choose to diverge is controlling them. It is subjugation.
If Northern Ireland votes (or their representatives vote) to follow SM rules and that is their choice and they can unilaterally end it then that would be a choice and not subjugation. If they have no choice and no say then they are subjugated.
Christine Agnew QC, defending, asked: "Was it your intention that Festus should use his dishonest means to help you out?"
"Absolutely not," the MP replied.
So with that, and the talk of her overwhelming new job as MP and her illness, she is using an 'I am stupid' defence with a side of sympathy for good measure?
First question Deal v No Deal to determine the most favoured Leave option, then the winner of the first question v Remain.
Then nobody can complain they were not given adequate choice or did not know what they were voting for
Edit here: https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be
UK 5% worse off under a May type deal.
The question of Northern Ireland separate to the United Kingdom was not on the ballot paper.
Plus any bill has to get thru the UK Parliament: readings, Commons, Lords, whatever.
Neither the EU nor the UK can turn on a sixpence and this should be borne in mind.
[EDIT: unquote myself]
I'd guess it will show that economically remain is best of all, otherwise they'd have been trumpeted all along.
That's not the problem. The problem is that we are permanently subjugating some of our populace to permanently follow their rules in exchange for a temporary transition.
Temporary obligations for temporary benefits is reasonable.
Permanent obligations for temporary benefits is utter madness.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/
If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first
Indeed the notion that was only one remain outcome underscores that many of those making claims about being able to influence the EU from within didn't believe what they were saying during the campaign.
She is silly going to this meeting before getting the commons to vote, at least if that had happened then she could use the argument that the commons had already voted and she could not go against it.
Pathetic.
And surely they will now turn on each other, as they realise that some were actually lying...
Amazing over the months and months of us generally disagreeing we are now on the same page
I have said on many occasions I am open to reasoned argument and my position has moved firmly to TM brexit or no brexit
I would also say I want TM to take this through but then she must stand down in early spring to allow a proper leader election to take place.
She will always be respected for her service, decency and determination to make brexit work as best as possible. I do not think history will be unkind to her
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/parliament-and-elections/government/confidence-and-supply-northern-irelands-1-billion/
https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/1064610546933215233
Presumably the way forward would at least in part be driven by the size of the defeat. Single figures would be "let's do that again" territory presumably with some imagined concession to try and allow some face saving.
Losing by 30, 40, whatever would be a totally different kettle of fish, surely.
In practice these things arise from a consensus rather than a vote of any sort.
Psychologically it is impossible for them to start compromising now. For one thing not compromising has brought them so far, so why change approach at this late stage, when they are so close?
Bearing this in mind it would be a mistake for anyone to attempt to compromise with them. They aren't interested. They are likely to find a reason to vote against any deal. Broadly speaking I would ignore them.
It should have been finalised, then put to the cabinet, agreed or not, then she should turn up in Brussels.
A minimalist can kicking deal with a temporary A50 extension taking us to the point just before the European Parliament is dissolved in order to allow time for ratification ought to be possible. They get the money want, avoid the cliff edge we both want and get their rules enforced in our country while we sort this mess out. Win, win for them - even if they'd like to have won more, rejecting that won't make sense if there is no alternative and no time for an alternative.
Deal, No Deal and Remain should be the maximum number of combinations allowed
The process is that the cabinet agrees, we go to Brussels and confirm we agree (and other nations, the Commission etc confirm they agree). Then once agreed it goes to Parliaments for ratification.
Bet they won't be making that mistake again now its open warfare between DUP and Theresa May.
As all the legislation to implement Brexit has now been passed, it's unclear to me that a further Act to ratify the WA is required.
Edit the WDA has already changed post cabinet the 20xx is being defined.
ERG = Piss And Wind confirmed.
If your going to launch a coup to oust the Prime Minister you'd better make sure you've got the numbers first!
Presumably she'll be selling Gibraltar down the river next?
I think we are talking full-scale amateur hour here.
I just want the Conservatives gone now. Theresa. Boris. JRM. Baker. Soubry. Gove. Hammond.
Please begone all of them.
He thought he had 50-odd.
As others have commented, this is the danger of misrepresenting the 52 per cent leave vote as "one like-minded entity"; wasn't true on the day of the vote and even less true now.