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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the early votes are counted if we do see a blue wave young
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the early votes are counted if we do see a blue wave young and non white voters will be behind it
So far, we’re seeing the highest non-white voter turnout ever for a midterm election.#ElectionNight#Midterms2018 https://t.co/Zw67LwhYxm
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Just seen the early Texas Senate results.
NC 13 Dems 49% GOP 49% <1% in
FLA 15 GOP 53% Dems 47% 37% in
I retract my comment about Florida from 5 minutes ago
A triumph for Trump.
But what is 538 looking at?
Which - ironically - probably bodes ill for Trump 2020.
The ability of the GOP to get the vote out is so, so impressive.
FLA 15 GOP 53% Dems 47% 78% in
I have upped my stake on Dem taking House.
"You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts."
"You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts."
From what I remember the 538 election night live forecast has always had problems like this. It's obviously not looking great for the Dems right now but I wouldn't take their numbers *too* seriously yet.
All the swinging and overreacting makes me wish I was betting, though...
Just made a few quid in seconds on House majority. Bet on Dems, laid off within a minute.
Small sums, but beer money.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/
Republican 49.7% Democrat 49.1% 72% in
Florida Senate
Republican 50.2% Democrat 49.8% 74% in
Democrat 53% GOP 42% 13% in
O'Rourke 49.7% Cruz 49.7%
1% in