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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In contrast to new reports of a TMay confidence move YouGov give her the highest best PM rating since early June
This is getting so tiresome in sharp contrast to the PMs recovering poll ratings. It seems like every week at the moment hardline CON Brexiteers are briefing journos that they are very near to getting the 48 letters from MPs demanding a TMay conference vote.
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She should could all Scipio Africanus on the Hannibalesque ERG.0
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David Davis is an incompetent.
He was blindsided by a back stop he arranged and trumpeted.
Speaks volumes that he makes Boris look competent.
Next they’ll be touting IDS as May’s replacement.0 -
First? Suspicious.TheScreamingEagles said:She should could all Scipio Africanus on the Hannibalesque ERG.
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95% of the letters are in.0
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I gave you all plenty of warning there was a new thread.RobD said:
First? Suspicious.TheScreamingEagles said:She should could all Scipio Africanus on the Hannibalesque ERG.
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More evidence that the public does not hate split parties, and the conventional wisdom is wrong.0
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What choice does the public have? The split Tories and the bipolar Labour Party.DecrepitJohnL said:More evidence that the public does not hate split parties, and the conventional wisdom is wrong.
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Con leadership betting moving around. Davis was almost joint fav over weekend, now back out at 11.0
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Done by a disgruntled employee. How can you defend against that, if they need that access/information to do their job.TheScreamingEagles said:Check out this.
https://twitter.com/bainesy1969/status/1054358569490022400?s=210 -
So what? May as leader or not does not seem hugely important to me, getting something through parliament does and that's hard no matter what.williamglenn said:
Insane or wrong.notme said:5 point con lead YouGov.
It's been the strategy for a year. Getting over the line is proving problematic.Pulpstar said:
I think May getting Brexit over the line then changing leader is a good strategy.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Depends what "lost" means. I'll give her the rest of 2018. but fight another election? No way.TheScreamingEagles said:
Actually I think Mrs May has lost the pragmatists/One Nation wing of the party/the people who think on her worst day Mrs May is miles better than the likes of David Davis, Andrea Leadsom, Boris et al on their best days.Pulpstar said:
I think the main takeaway from this idea is that the ERG realises it doesn't have the votes.TheScreamingEagles said:
Neville Chamberlain says hello.David_Evershed said:
No Conservative leader is going to be humiliated by having a different Prime Minister when the Conservatives are in power.Scott_P said:
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https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1054323690584883201Pulpstar said:95% of the letters are in.
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I don't think that's quite it. If they don't think her plans are good enough they can act, it is not unreasonable for her to press ahead if they are not acting, even if her ideas are indeed bad.geoffw said:Her pride in being a "bloody difficult woman" is the problem. She thinks obstinacy is a virtue even when she has close to no support for the scheme she cooked up which now dare not speak its name.
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I agree its tiresome but it's not just Brexiteers or her position would be stronger.0
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At least in terms of polling. The public are very forgiving it seemsDecrepitJohnL said:More evidence that the public does not hate split parties, and the conventional wisdom is wrong.
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Other parties do exist. Even with FPTP you'd assume someone else might benefit.Beverley_C said:
What choice does the public have? The split Tories and the bipolar Labour Party.DecrepitJohnL said:More evidence that the public does not hate split parties, and the conventional wisdom is wrong.
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The public probably feels guilty that its vote for Brexit has dumped huge problems on the Prime Minister, who opposed it. So the approval ratings might be a sympathy vote.0
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There is software that will monitor access and flag up unusual access patterns - and suspending access if desired.RobD said:
Done by a disgruntled employee. How can you defend against that, if they need that access/information to do their job.TheScreamingEagles said:Check out this.
https://twitter.com/bainesy1969/status/1054358569490022400?s=210 -
And if they're in charge of that software? who watches the watchers who watch the watchers who.......etc etcOblitusSumMe said:
There is software that will monitor access and flag up unusual access patterns - and suspending access if desired.RobD said:
Done by a disgruntled employee. How can you defend against that, if they need that access/information to do their job.TheScreamingEagles said:Check out this.
https://twitter.com/bainesy1969/status/1054358569490022400?s=210 -
Theresa's recovery is surely driven by some kind of sympathy vote. The public see these ludicrous and unappealing Brexity men - DD, Boris, Fox etc. - and grant that Remainer Theresa is at least trying to sort out their mess, while they just ponce around being objectionable. They'd be much less forgiving if DD or Boris actually took over. Prepare for PM Jezza were that situation ever to arise.0
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Much as I'd like to agree, I think there's a soupçon of projection involved in your thinking.Stark_Dawning said:Theresa's recovery is surely driven by some kind of sympathy vote. The public see these ludicrous and unappealing Brexity men - DD, Boris, Fox etc. - and grant that Remainer Theresa is at least trying to sort out their mess, while they just ponce around being objectionable. They'd be much less forgiving if DD or Boris actually took over. Prepare for PM Jezza were that situation ever to arise.
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At work I have all that information.RobD said:
Done by a disgruntled employee. How can you defend against that, if they need that access/information to do their job.TheScreamingEagles said:Check out this.
https://twitter.com/bainesy1969/status/1054358569490022400?s=21
The system automatically logs every time I access an individual’s details.
If I want to access the entire file or departmental details it is logged to the Finance Director for approval.0 -
Yes, there is some limit to how well things can be protected.Slackbladder said:
And if they're in charge of that software? who watches the watchers who watch the watchers who.......etc etcOblitusSumMe said:
There is software that will monitor access and flag up unusual access patterns - and suspending access if desired.RobD said:
Done by a disgruntled employee. How can you defend against that, if they need that access/information to do their job.TheScreamingEagles said:Check out this.
https://twitter.com/bainesy1969/status/1054358569490022400?s=210 -
Russell Crowe and co. managed to defeat "Scipio Africanus" in GladiatorTheScreamingEagles said:She should could all Scipio Africanus on the Hannibalesque ERG.
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The High Court made a finding that Morrisons was not at fault.TheScreamingEagles said:
At work I have all that information.RobD said:
Done by a disgruntled employee. How can you defend against that, if they need that access/information to do their job.TheScreamingEagles said:Check out this.
https://twitter.com/bainesy1969/status/1054358569490022400?s=21
The system automatically logs every time I access an individual’s details.
If I want to access the entire file or departmental details it is logged to the Finance Director for approval.
So the Court of Appeal is really finding a non-delegable duty, not vicarious liability.0 -
I shall keep that for the next time my mother tells me I should have been a lawyer. She will be forced to agree I was right.TheWhiteRabbit said:So the Court of Appeal is really finding a non-delegable duty, not vicarious liability.
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Wasn't he right about sequencing, though? Which predates the backstop (indeed, makes it necessary).TheScreamingEagles said:David Davis is an incompetent.
He was blindsided by a back stop he arranged and trumpeted.
Speaks volumes that he makes Boris look competent.
Next they’ll be touting IDS as May’s replacement.0 -
Exactly what I have been hearing from non partisan people over the last couple of days. I think this is one case where the story tells you more than polling numbers. My bet if I can find somewhere to place it is that the Tories' support will plummet if they get rid of her.Stark_Dawning said:Theresa's recovery is surely driven by some kind of sympathy vote. The public see these ludicrous and unappealing Brexity men - DD, Boris, Fox etc. - and grant that Remainer Theresa is at least trying to sort out their mess, while they just ponce around being objectionable. They'd be much less forgiving if DD or Boris actually took over. Prepare for PM Jezza were that situation ever to arise.
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It's a boring job. The watchers watching the watchers are clock-watchers....Slackbladder said:
And if they're in charge of that software? who watches the watchers who watch the watchers who.......etc etcOblitusSumMe said:
There is software that will monitor access and flag up unusual access patterns - and suspending access if desired.RobD said:
Done by a disgruntled employee. How can you defend against that, if they need that access/information to do their job.TheScreamingEagles said:Check out this.
https://twitter.com/bainesy1969/status/1054358569490022400?s=210 -
Don’t know. If he did think that why did he go along with such sequencing?Tissue_Price said:
Wasn't he right about sequencing, though? Which predates the backstop (indeed, makes it necessary).TheScreamingEagles said:David Davis is an incompetent.
He was blindsided by a back stop he arranged and trumpeted.
Speaks volumes that he makes Boris look competent.
Next they’ll be touting IDS as May’s replacement.0 -
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Really? Who can form a majority administration? Only Labour and the Tories, there are no other options. A few years ago the SNP won almost every seat in Scotland. They did not form a govt in Westminster.kle4 said:
Other parties do exist. Even with FPTP you'd assume someone else might benefit.Beverley_C said:
What choice does the public have? The split Tories and the bipolar Labour Party.DecrepitJohnL said:More evidence that the public does not hate split parties, and the conventional wisdom is wrong.
You are logic-chopping Mr Kle4 - you are correct in theory but in practice, here in the real world, there are only two options and both are split.0 -
Suspect they’ll be nodded through if they are an exact duplicate of the EU regs.Scott_P said:0 -
I think you are right at the end although i'm unsure the public is engaged enough on the detail of Tory in-fighting to the degree it affects their current voting intentions. But yes a leadership contest and a new leader would reveal the divisions too starkly for anything other than a drop in support. All in all the UK is in one helluva mess.Recidivist said:
Exactly what I have been hearing from non partisan people over the last couple of days. I think this is one case where the story tells you more than polling numbers. My bet if I can find somewhere to place it is that the Tories' support will plummet if they get rid of her.Stark_Dawning said:Theresa's recovery is surely driven by some kind of sympathy vote. The public see these ludicrous and unappealing Brexity men - DD, Boris, Fox etc. - and grant that Remainer Theresa is at least trying to sort out their mess, while they just ponce around being objectionable. They'd be much less forgiving if DD or Boris actually took over. Prepare for PM Jezza were that situation ever to arise.
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I am doing no such thing. It is rare and remarkable but main FPTP parties do get supplanted sometimes. If both of ours are as bad as people say then we would see a sea change.Beverley_C said:
Really? Who can form a majority administration? Only Labour and the Tories, there are no other options. A few years ago the SNP won almost every seat in Scotland. They did not form a govt in Westminster.kle4 said:
Other parties do exist. Even with FPTP you'd assume someone else might benefit.Beverley_C said:
What choice does the public have? The split Tories and the bipolar Labour Party.DecrepitJohnL said:More evidence that the public does not hate split parties, and the conventional wisdom is wrong.
You are logic-chopping Mr Kle4 - you are correct in theory but in practice, here in the real world, there are only two options and both are split.
We aren't, because people don't think they are as bad as they claim.0 -
You pay them well enough so that they won't betray the company. You choose them carefully in the first place.Slackbladder said:
And if they're in charge of that software? who watches the watchers who watch the watchers who.......etc etcOblitusSumMe said:
There is software that will monitor access and flag up unusual access patterns - and suspending access if desired.RobD said:
Done by a disgruntled employee. How can you defend against that, if they need that access/information to do their job.TheScreamingEagles said:Check out this.
https://twitter.com/bainesy1969/status/1054358569490022400?s=210 -
It was that or resign, I presume. I assume he thought it was better to stay in the tent, not least because a resignation at that point might have collapsed the whole tent!TheScreamingEagles said:
Don’t know. If he did think that why did he go along with such sequencing?Tissue_Price said:
Wasn't he right about sequencing, though? Which predates the backstop (indeed, makes it necessary).TheScreamingEagles said:David Davis is an incompetent.
He was blindsided by a back stop he arranged and trumpeted.
Speaks volumes that he makes Boris look competent.
Next they’ll be touting IDS as May’s replacement.0 -
Just reviewed my Next PM/Next Con Leader betting position.
What a mess!0 -
Surely it would have been an alarm bell about how he'd be pushed around though? He promised the row of the summer, folded on day 1 whether through ignorance, persuasion or changing his mind. How did he then expect to be top dog on all the strategic decisions? He's not the hardest worker but he's clearly very smart.Tissue_Price said:
It was that or resign, I presume. I assume he thought it was better to stay in the tent, not least because a resignation at that point might have collapsed the whole tent!TheScreamingEagles said:
Don’t know. If he did think that why did he go along with such sequencing?Tissue_Price said:
Wasn't he right about sequencing, though? Which predates the backstop (indeed, makes it necessary).TheScreamingEagles said:David Davis is an incompetent.
He was blindsided by a back stop he arranged and trumpeted.
Speaks volumes that he makes Boris look competent.
Next they’ll be touting IDS as May’s replacement.0 -
I wonder how the negotiations would have gone with a Con majority of 70?tpfkar said:
Surely it would have been an alarm bell about how he'd be pushed around though? He promised the row of the summer, folded on day 1 whether through ignorance, persuasion or changing his mind. How did he then expect to be top dog on all the strategic decisions? He's not the hardest worker but he's clearly very smart.Tissue_Price said:
It was that or resign, I presume. I assume he thought it was better to stay in the tent, not least because a resignation at that point might have collapsed the whole tent!TheScreamingEagles said:
Don’t know. If he did think that why did he go along with such sequencing?Tissue_Price said:
Wasn't he right about sequencing, though? Which predates the backstop (indeed, makes it necessary).TheScreamingEagles said:David Davis is an incompetent.
He was blindsided by a back stop he arranged and trumpeted.
Speaks volumes that he makes Boris look competent.
Next they’ll be touting IDS as May’s replacement.0 -
Least you didn't errm... scoop #76 or so at 9.4 for May's departure till the year end. I still think she'll hang on till the end of the year, though every post/twitter journalist often seems to spell DOOOM.Richard_Nabavi said:Just reviewed my Next PM/Next Con Leader betting position.
What a mess!0 -
There have certainly been occasions over the past 20 years when the Lib Dems have surged, due to disillusionment with the big two.kle4 said:
I am doing no such thing. It is rare and remarkable but main FPTP parties do get supplanted sometimes. If both of ours are as bad as people say then we would see a sea change.Beverley_C said:
Really? Who can form a majority administration? Only Labour and the Tories, there are no other options. A few years ago the SNP won almost every seat in Scotland. They did not form a govt in Westminster.kle4 said:
Other parties do exist. Even with FPTP you'd assume someone else might benefit.Beverley_C said:
What choice does the public have? The split Tories and the bipolar Labour Party.DecrepitJohnL said:More evidence that the public does not hate split parties, and the conventional wisdom is wrong.
You are logic-chopping Mr Kle4 - you are correct in theory but in practice, here in the real world, there are only two options and both are split.
We aren't, because people don't think they are as bad as they claim.0 -
Had any polician ever been luckier in their enemies than TMay?0
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The same maelstrom that affects her affects them.edmundintokyo said:Had any polician ever been luckier in their enemies than TMay?
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I am reasonably ok, as long as it is one of the touted contenders and not some one from the unknown who appears from nowhere to scoop the prize, like Kwarteng.Richard_Nabavi said:Just reviewed my Next PM/Next Con Leader betting position.
What a mess!
Hunt is payday.
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Or a Lab majority?Tissue_Price said:
I wonder how the negotiations would have gone with a Con majority of 70?tpfkar said:
Surely it would have been an alarm bell about how he'd be pushed around though? He promised the row of the summer, folded on day 1 whether through ignorance, persuasion or changing his mind. How did he then expect to be top dog on all the strategic decisions? He's not the hardest worker but he's clearly very smart.Tissue_Price said:
It was that or resign, I presume. I assume he thought it was better to stay in the tent, not least because a resignation at that point might have collapsed the whole tent!TheScreamingEagles said:
Don’t know. If he did think that why did he go along with such sequencing?Tissue_Price said:
Wasn't he right about sequencing, though? Which predates the backstop (indeed, makes it necessary).TheScreamingEagles said:David Davis is an incompetent.
He was blindsided by a back stop he arranged and trumpeted.
Speaks volumes that he makes Boris look competent.
Next they’ll be touting IDS as May’s replacement.0 -
Much better.Tissue_Price said:
I wonder how the negotiations would have gone with a Con majority of 70?tpfkar said:
Surely it would have been an alarm bell about how he'd be pushed around though? He promised the row of the summer, folded on day 1 whether through ignorance, persuasion or changing his mind. How did he then expect to be top dog on all the strategic decisions? He's not the hardest worker but he's clearly very smart.Tissue_Price said:
It was that or resign, I presume. I assume he thought it was better to stay in the tent, not least because a resignation at that point might have collapsed the whole tent!TheScreamingEagles said:
Don’t know. If he did think that why did he go along with such sequencing?Tissue_Price said:
Wasn't he right about sequencing, though? Which predates the backstop (indeed, makes it necessary).TheScreamingEagles said:David Davis is an incompetent.
He was blindsided by a back stop he arranged and trumpeted.
Speaks volumes that he makes Boris look competent.
Next they’ll be touting IDS as May’s replacement.0 -
Not very differently I think. The negotiations would always have been driven by the EU and their overriding aim is to ensure the UK gets a worse deal outside the club than inside it. May might have been able to retreat from her red lines with rather more dignity, but she would still have had to retreat or jump from the cliff. Brexit could never have been an easy process even if the Tories had a majority of 200.Tissue_Price said:
I wonder how the negotiations would have gone with a Con majority of 70?tpfkar said:
Surely it would have been an alarm bell about how he'd be pushed around though? He promised the row of the summer, folded on day 1 whether through ignorance, persuasion or changing his mind. How did he then expect to be top dog on all the strategic decisions? He's not the hardest worker but he's clearly very smart.Tissue_Price said:
It was that or resign, I presume. I assume he thought it was better to stay in the tent, not least because a resignation at that point might have collapsed the whole tent!TheScreamingEagles said:
Don’t know. If he did think that why did he go along with such sequencing?Tissue_Price said:
Wasn't he right about sequencing, though? Which predates the backstop (indeed, makes it necessary).TheScreamingEagles said:David Davis is an incompetent.
He was blindsided by a back stop he arranged and trumpeted.
Speaks volumes that he makes Boris look competent.
Next they’ll be touting IDS as May’s replacement.0 -
Oh I think that's quite easy, Brexit - but remaining in the customs union. NI in the single market.Foxy said:
Or a Lab majority?Tissue_Price said:
I wonder how the negotiations would have gone with a Con majority of 70?tpfkar said:
Surely it would have been an alarm bell about how he'd be pushed around though? He promised the row of the summer, folded on day 1 whether through ignorance, persuasion or changing his mind. How did he then expect to be top dog on all the strategic decisions? He's not the hardest worker but he's clearly very smart.Tissue_Price said:
It was that or resign, I presume. I assume he thought it was better to stay in the tent, not least because a resignation at that point might have collapsed the whole tent!TheScreamingEagles said:
Don’t know. If he did think that why did he go along with such sequencing?Tissue_Price said:
Wasn't he right about sequencing, though? Which predates the backstop (indeed, makes it necessary).TheScreamingEagles said:David Davis is an incompetent.
He was blindsided by a back stop he arranged and trumpeted.
Speaks volumes that he makes Boris look competent.
Next they’ll be touting IDS as May’s replacement.0 -
My book's certainly got its bright spots, with a big payout on Javid as Next PM, and a reasonable one on Hunt. But it's a bit of a structural mess, and badly positioned if there's a change of PM without one of my Next Leader nags getting the gig.rottenborough said:
I am reasonably ok, as long as it is one of the touted contenders and not some one from the unknown who appears from nowhere to scoop the prize, like Kwarteng.Richard_Nabavi said:Just reviewed my Next PM/Next Con Leader betting position.
What a mess!
Hunt is payday.
Plus some ragged leftovers from days which now seem long past - £6 on Michael Fallon at 80/1 seemed a good bet in October last year!0 -
Sean_F said:
There have certainly been occasions over the past 20 years when the Lib Dems have surged, due to disillusionment with the big two.kle4 said:
I am doing no such thing. It is rare and remarkable but main FPTP parties do get supplanted sometimes. If both of ours are as bad as people say then we would see a sea change.Beverley_C said:
Really? Who can form a majority administration? Only Labour and the Tories, there are no other options. A few years ago the SNP won almost every seat in Scotland. They did not form a govt in Westminster.kle4 said:
Other parties do exist. Even with FPTP you'd assume someone else might benefit.Beverley_C said:
What choice does the public have? The split Tories and the bipolar Labour Party.DecrepitJohnL said:More evidence that the public does not hate split parties, and the conventional wisdom is wrong.
You are logic-chopping Mr Kle4 - you are correct in theory but in practice, here in the real world, there are only two options and both are split.
We aren't, because people don't think they are as bad as they claim.
I'm not betting on a Cableasgm. Erotic or otherwise.Sean_F said:
There have certainly been occasions over the past 20 years when the Lib Dems have surged, due to disillusionment with the big two.kle4 said:
I am doing no such thing. It is rare and remarkable but main FPTP parties do get supplanted sometimes. If both of ours are as bad as people say then we would see a sea change.Beverley_C said:
Really? Who can form a majority administration? Only Labour and the Tories, there are no other options. A few years ago the SNP won almost every seat in Scotland. They did not form a govt in Westminster.kle4 said:
Other parties do exist. Even with FPTP you'd assume someone else might benefit.Beverley_C said:
What choice does the public have? The split Tories and the bipolar Labour Party.DecrepitJohnL said:More evidence that the public does not hate split parties, and the conventional wisdom is wrong.
You are logic-chopping Mr Kle4 - you are correct in theory but in practice, here in the real world, there are only two options and both are split.
We aren't, because people don't think they are as bad as they claim.0 -
Question - who hates May more, 'true' Brexiteers or the FBPE lot ?
Personally I think they're both large groups of people that won't listen and lack pragmatism.0 -
She’s either through skill or luck managing to slide a mid way between them. Fools to the left of me, jokers to the right....Pulpstar said:Question - who hates May more, 'true' Brexiteers or the FBPE lot ?
Personally I think they're both large groups of people that won't listen and lack pragmatism.
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.... here I am stuck in the middle with EU?notme said:
She’s either through skill or luck managing to slide a mid way between them. Fools to the left of me, jokers to the right....Pulpstar said:Question - who hates May more, 'true' Brexiteers or the FBPE lot ?
Personally I think they're both large groups of people that won't listen and lack pragmatism.0 -
At his age, it would probably finish him...Slackbladder said:Sean_F said:
There have certainly been occasions over the past 20 years when the Lib Dems have surged, due to disillusionment with the big two.kle4 said:
I am doing no such thing. It is rare and remarkable but main FPTP parties do get supplanted sometimes. If both of ours are as bad as people say then we would see a sea change.Beverley_C said:
Really? Who can form a majority administration? Only Labour and the Tories, there are no other options. A few years ago the SNP won almost every seat in Scotland. They did not form a govt in Westminster.kle4 said:
Other parties do exist. Even with FPTP you'd assume someone else might benefit.Beverley_C said:
What choice does the public have? The split Tories and the bipolar Labour Party.DecrepitJohnL said:More evidence that the public does not hate split parties, and the conventional wisdom is wrong.
You are logic-chopping Mr Kle4 - you are correct in theory but in practice, here in the real world, there are only two options and both are split.
We aren't, because people don't think they are as bad as they claim.
I'm not betting on a Cableasgm. Erotic or otherwise.Sean_F said:
There have certainly been occasions over the past 20 years when the Lib Dems have surged, due to disillusionment with the big two.kle4 said:
I am doing no such thing. It is rare and remarkable but main FPTP parties do get supplanted sometimes. If both of ours are as bad as people say then we would see a sea change.Beverley_C said:
Really? Who can form a majority administration? Only Labour and the Tories, there are no other options. A few years ago the SNP won almost every seat in Scotland. They did not form a govt in Westminster.kle4 said:
Other parties do exist. Even with FPTP you'd assume someone else might benefit.Beverley_C said:
What choice does the public have? The split Tories and the bipolar Labour Party.DecrepitJohnL said:More evidence that the public does not hate split parties, and the conventional wisdom is wrong.
You are logic-chopping Mr Kle4 - you are correct in theory but in practice, here in the real world, there are only two options and both are split.
We aren't, because people don't think they are as bad as they claim.0 -
I think there is a sympathy vote for Mrs May. I suspect quite a lot of politically disengaged people admire her for battling on against the shovel loads of stuff being heaped on her by members of her own party. If she were deposed, I think the Tory share would plummet.kle4 said:
At least in terms of polling. The public are very forgiving it seemsDecrepitJohnL said:More evidence that the public does not hate split parties, and the conventional wisdom is wrong.
For the record, after the latest YouGov poll, the EMA is now showing the Tories 2% ahead of labour.
Con 39.7
Lab 37.6%
Con seats 313
Lab seats 258
LD 17
UKIP 0
Green 1
SNP 40
NI 18
Tories 13 short of an overall majority. Labour gain just one seat from Tories - Southampton Itchen.0 -
I have also heard quite a few people incensed by the way May was treated at last EU summit.Barnesian said:
I think there is a sympathy vote for Mrs May. I suspect quite a lot of politically disengaged people admire her for battling on against the shovel loads of stuff being heaped on her by members of her own party. If she were deposed, I think the Tory share would plummet.kle4 said:
At least in terms of polling. The public are very forgiving it seemsDecrepitJohnL said:More evidence that the public does not hate split parties, and the conventional wisdom is wrong.
For the record, after the latest YouGov poll, the EMA is now showing the Tories 2% ahead of labour.
Con 39.7
Lab 37.6%
Con seats 313
Lab seats 258
LD 17
UKIP 0
Green 1
SNP 40
NI 18
Tories 13 short of an overall majority. Labour gain just one seat from Tories - Southampton Itchen.
Some sympathy out there in the Dog and Duck.0 -
Anyway, off to see First Man film.
Please don't bring the government down while I am in the dark with my phone off.0 -
I'd agree - but I think the sympathy results as much from the sticky position she finds herself in at home (rock/hard place stuff) as it does from any nastiness over the water ("she's doing the best she can in trying circumstances"). And I don't think 20 per cent on either wing of her parliamentary party give a stuff about that compared to pushing the argument their way.rottenborough said:
I have also heard quite a few people incensed by the way May was treated at last EU summit.Barnesian said:
I think there is a sympathy vote for Mrs May. I suspect quite a lot of politically disengaged people admire her for battling on against the shovel loads of stuff being heaped on her by members of her own party. If she were deposed, I think the Tory share would plummet.kle4 said:
At least in terms of polling. The public are very forgiving it seemsDecrepitJohnL said:More evidence that the public does not hate split parties, and the conventional wisdom is wrong.
For the record, after the latest YouGov poll, the EMA is now showing the Tories 2% ahead of labour.
Con 39.7
Lab 37.6%
Con seats 313
Lab seats 258
LD 17
UKIP 0
Green 1
SNP 40
NI 18
Tories 13 short of an overall majority. Labour gain just one seat from Tories - Southampton Itchen.
Some sympathy out there in the Dog and Duck.
I still think that she or whoever takes over will carry the can for the consequences of a bad Brexit.. whether that's because it's a rule-taking BINO or the economy tanking after some idiotic nonsense designed to avoid it.0 -
Compared with all the alternatives she is a giant and they are pygmies.Sean_F said:
I find her pretty dismal but don't hate her, and find some of the recent comments revolting.Pulpstar said:Question - who hates May more, 'true' Brexiteers or the FBPE lot ?
Personally I think they're both large groups of people that won't listen and lack pragmatism.0 -
Good afternoon, comrades.0
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Boom....logical_song said:
.... here I am stuck in the middle with EU?notme said:
She’s either through skill or luck managing to slide a mid way between them. Fools to the left of me, jokers to the right....Pulpstar said:Question - who hates May more, 'true' Brexiteers or the FBPE lot ?
Personally I think they're both large groups of people that won't listen and lack pragmatism.0 -
That is regrettably true.MikeSmithson said:
Compared with all the alternatives she is a giant and they are pygmies.Sean_F said:
I find her pretty dismal but don't hate her, and find some of the recent comments revolting.Pulpstar said:Question - who hates May more, 'true' Brexiteers or the FBPE lot ?
Personally I think they're both large groups of people that won't listen and lack pragmatism.0 -
Mr. Smithson, can be hard to tell. I forget if it was Galba or Otho who was said to have been a great potential emperor, if only he had never become one.
Likewise, Julian was plucked from academic pursuits yet became a very competent Caesar (somewhat iffier as an Augustus).
Edited extra bit: if it were*.0 -
Whoever went with the noose/show trial language seems to have done her a small favour, some MPs rallying round today.Sean_F said:
I find her pretty dismal but don't hate her, and find some of the recent comments revolting.Pulpstar said:Question - who hates May more, 'true' Brexiteers or the FBPE lot ?
Personally I think they're both large groups of people that won't listen and lack pragmatism.0 -
Although at those times, the LibDems had a, what's it called, a "leader".Sean_F said:
There have certainly been occasions over the past 20 years when the Lib Dems have surged, due to disillusionment with the big two.kle4 said:
I am doing no such thing. It is rare and remarkable but main FPTP parties do get supplanted sometimes. If both of ours are as bad as people say then we would see a sea change.Beverley_C said:
Really? Who can form a majority administration? Only Labour and the Tories, there are no other options. A few years ago the SNP won almost every seat in Scotland. They did not form a govt in Westminster.kle4 said:
Other parties do exist. Even with FPTP you'd assume someone else might benefit.Beverley_C said:
What choice does the public have? The split Tories and the bipolar Labour Party.DecrepitJohnL said:More evidence that the public does not hate split parties, and the conventional wisdom is wrong.
You are logic-chopping Mr Kle4 - you are correct in theory but in practice, here in the real world, there are only two options and both are split.
We aren't, because people don't think they are as bad as they claim.0 -
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Does May have any supporters?
To use a football analogy, there is a hardcore bunch of Ultras in the away end, and the rest of the ground is full of neutrals.0 -
Mr. P, is that accurate?
I would've gone for a heart surgery comparison myself.
Mr. Pulpstar, they're a masterclass in backfiring idiocy, as May is with jelly-spined capitulation and total lack of foresight (alas for us we have Prometheus' brother acting as her muse).0 -
I do occasionally have the suspicion that the famed "Cleggasm" of the 2010 debates may have saved the Conservative Party from the fate of the Liberals in the 1920s.Sean_F said:
There have certainly been occasions over the past 20 years when the Lib Dems have surged, due to disillusionment with the big two.kle4 said:
I am doing no such thing. It is rare and remarkable but main FPTP parties do get supplanted sometimes. If both of ours are as bad as people say then we would see a sea change.Beverley_C said:
Really? Who can form a majority administration? Only Labour and the Tories, there are no other options. A few years ago the SNP won almost every seat in Scotland. They did not form a govt in Westminster.kle4 said:
Other parties do exist. Even with FPTP you'd assume someone else might benefit.Beverley_C said:
What choice does the public have? The split Tories and the bipolar Labour Party.DecrepitJohnL said:More evidence that the public does not hate split parties, and the conventional wisdom is wrong.
You are logic-chopping Mr Kle4 - you are correct in theory but in practice, here in the real world, there are only two options and both are split.
We aren't, because people don't think they are as bad as they claim.
Had that not occurred and Cameron achieved his expected majority in 2010, he'd have governed alone and the Conservatives taken all the price of power, while the Lib Dems would have been untainted by compromise. Had Cameron then gone for a Brexit referendum as once promised, we could have had all this a couple of years earlier, but with a far stronger and more credible Lib Dem third party.
That could have got interesting.0 -
Not to mention a few credible alternative policies.rcs1000 said:
Although at those times, the LibDems had a, what's it called, a "leader".Sean_F said:
There have certainly been occasions over the past 20 years when the Lib Dems have surged, due to disillusionment with the big two.kle4 said:
I am doing no such thing. It is rare and remarkable but main FPTP parties do get supplanted sometimes. If both of ours are as bad as people say then we would see a sea change.Beverley_C said:
Really? Who can form a majority administration? Only Labour and the Tories, there are no other options. A few years ago the SNP won almost every seat in Scotland. They did not form a govt in Westminster.kle4 said:
Other parties do exist. Even with FPTP you'd assume someone else might benefit.Beverley_C said:
What choice does the public have? The split Tories and the bipolar Labour Party.DecrepitJohnL said:More evidence that the public does not hate split parties, and the conventional wisdom is wrong.
You are logic-chopping Mr Kle4 - you are correct in theory but in practice, here in the real world, there are only two options and both are split.
We aren't, because people don't think they are as bad as they claim.0 -
Showing results in the polling for them thenScott_P said:0 -
Would Cameron have gone for it in his first term?Andy_Cooke said:
I do occasionally have the suspicion that the famed "Cleggasm" of the 2010 debates may have saved the Conservative Party from the fate of the Liberals in the 1920s.Sean_F said:
There have certainly been occasions over the past 20 years when the Lib Dems have surged, due to disillusionment with the big two.kle4 said:
I am doing no such thing. It is rare and remarkable but main FPTP parties do get supplanted sometimes. If both of ours are as bad as people say then we would see a sea change.Beverley_C said:
Really? Who can form a majority administration? Only Labour and the Tories, there are no other options. A few years ago the SNP won almost every seat in Scotland. They did not form a govt in Westminster.kle4 said:
Other parties do exist. Even with FPTP you'd assume someone else might benefit.Beverley_C said:
What choice does the public have? The split Tories and the bipolar Labour Party.DecrepitJohnL said:More evidence that the public does not hate split parties, and the conventional wisdom is wrong.
You are logic-chopping Mr Kle4 - you are correct in theory but in practice, here in the real world, there are only two options and both are split.
We aren't, because people don't think they are as bad as they claim.
Had that not occurred and Cameron achieved his expected majority in 2010, he'd have governed alone and the Conservatives taken all the price of power, while the Lib Dems would have been untainted by compromise. Had Cameron then gone for a Brexit referendum as once promised, we could have had all this a couple of years earlier, but with a far stronger and more credible Lib Dem third party.
That could have got interesting.0 -
I think it might have depended on if UKIP surged as they did. Cameron does seem to have always had the instincts of a high-stakes gambler, after all.Sean_F said:
Would Cameron have gone for it in his first term?Andy_Cooke said:
I do occasionally have the suspicion that the famed "Cleggasm" of the 2010 debates may have saved the Conservative Party from the fate of the Liberals in the 1920s.Sean_F said:
There have certainly been occasions over the past 20 years when the Lib Dems have surged, due to disillusionment with the big two.kle4 said:
I am doing no such thing. It is rare and remarkable but main FPTP parties do get supplanted sometimes. If both of ours are as bad as people say then we would see a sea change.Beverley_C said:
Really? Who can form a majority administration? Only Labour and the Tories, there are no other options. A few years ago the SNP won almost every seat in Scotland. They did not form a govt in Westminster.kle4 said:
Other parties do exist. Even with FPTP you'd assume someone else might benefit.Beverley_C said:
What choice does the public have? The split Tories and the bipolar Labour Party.DecrepitJohnL said:More evidence that the public does not hate split parties, and the conventional wisdom is wrong.
You are logic-chopping Mr Kle4 - you are correct in theory but in practice, here in the real world, there are only two options and both are split.
We aren't, because people don't think they are as bad as they claim.
Had that not occurred and Cameron achieved his expected majority in 2010, he'd have governed alone and the Conservatives taken all the price of power, while the Lib Dems would have been untainted by compromise. Had Cameron then gone for a Brexit referendum as once promised, we could have had all this a couple of years earlier, but with a far stronger and more credible Lib Dem third party.
That could have got interesting.0 -
I bow to no one in my disillusionment with PM May. However, this not the right time for a defenestration, and it's irresponsible of the backbench Ultras to be agitating for one. Neither we nor the EU are going away; there is plenty of time for our relations to evolve after we've left. That's hopeful for both Leavers and Remainers.0
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It’s more likely he’d have lost office in the 2015GE to a Lab/LD coalition, as there’d have been no human shield.Andy_Cooke said:
I do occasionally have the suspicion that the famed "Cleggasm" of the 2010 debates may have saved the Conservative Party from the fate of the Liberals in the 1920s.Sean_F said:
There have certainly been occasions over the past 20 years when the Lib Dems have surged, due to disillusionment with the big two.kle4 said:
I am doing no such thing. It is rare and remarkable but main FPTP parties do get supplanted sometimes. If both of ours are as bad as people say then we would see a sea change.Beverley_C said:
Really? Who can form a majority administration? Only Labour and the Tories, there are no other options. A few years ago the SNP won almost every seat in Scotland. They did not form a govt in Westminster.kle4 said:
Other parties do exist. Even with FPTP you'd assume someone else might benefit.Beverley_C said:
What choice does the public have? The split Tories and the bipolar Labour Party.DecrepitJohnL said:More evidence that the public does not hate split parties, and the conventional wisdom is wrong.
You are logic-chopping Mr Kle4 - you are correct in theory but in practice, here in the real world, there are only two options and both are split.
We aren't, because people don't think they are as bad as they claim.
Had that not occurred and Cameron achieved his expected majority in 2010, he'd have governed alone and the Conservatives taken all the price of power, while the Lib Dems would have been untainted by compromise. Had Cameron then gone for a Brexit referendum as once promised, we could have had all this a couple of years earlier, but with a far stronger and more credible Lib Dem third party.
That could have got interesting.
But, I expect a Conservative majority Government would have been forced to be more eurosceptic and better able to defend/mitigate against the rise of UKIP.
So possibly swings and roundabouts.0 -
As of today's date I'm well placed unless:Richard_Nabavi said:Just reviewed my Next PM/Next Con Leader betting position.
What a mess!
1) Jeremy Corbyn is next Prime Minister
2) Jacob Rees-Mogg is next Prime Minister
3) David Miliband is next Prime Minister
4) Rishi Sunak becomes next Prime Minister without also being next Conservative leader.
My concerns are in that order.
0 -
Julian Smith has done an absolubtely first rate job as the chief whip with Brexit thus far. Probably why he kept his job after the pairing 'fiasco' (Though given the tightness of the vote may have been intentional)Scott_P said:0 -
The Tories could do with a Walter Harrison. He provided some Labour MPs with disguises so that they could vote twice.Pulpstar said:
Julian Smith has done an absolubtely first rate job as the chief whip with Brexit thus far. Probably why he kept his job after the pairing 'fiasco' (Though given the tightness of the vote may have been intentional)Scott_P said:0 -
I have three betting concerns:AlastairMeeks said:
As of today's date I'm well placed unless:Richard_Nabavi said:Just reviewed my Next PM/Next Con Leader betting position.
What a mess!
1) Jeremy Corbyn is next Prime Minister
2) Jacob Rees-Mogg is next Prime Minister
3) David Miliband is next Prime Minister
4) Rishi Sunak becomes next Prime Minister without also being next Conservative leader.
My concerns are in that order.
1) May surviving till the end of the year
2) May surviving till the end of the year
3) Tester holding Montana (Which has seen no polling in ages)0 -
A very good friend of mine who is a london MP told me today that he and others who are Brexiteers have spoken to the likes of Steve Baker and Mogg and told them to stop boxing TM in and give her some room to manoeuver because failure to do so will lead in total failure.0
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Next PM is reasonably good for me, next Con leader not so much... though I have been trying to play them against each other, which might prove dangerous in some of the wilder scenarios. Next Labour leader is the best - I'm still waiting to collect on the short-odds Eagle, Smith & Watson lays from 2016!!AlastairMeeks said:
As of today's date I'm well placed unless:Richard_Nabavi said:Just reviewed my Next PM/Next Con Leader betting position.
What a mess!
1) Jeremy Corbyn is next Prime Minister
2) Jacob Rees-Mogg is next Prime Minister
3) David Miliband is next Prime Minister
4) Rishi Sunak becomes next Prime Minister without also being next Conservative leader.
My concerns are in that order.
Corbyn, Rees-Mogg, Johnson and Leadsom are all max red. I'm annoyed at having given away much of my Davis green, though I think that's still pretty unlikely I could have got a much better price for it.
Sajid is a v good result; my most plausible jackpot is Matt Hancock (there's still a chunk at 85 on next PM; not mine!)0 -
I agree.Pulpstar said:
Julian Smith has done an absolubtely first rate job as the chief whip with Brexit thus far. Probably why he kept his job after the pairing 'fiasco' (Though given the tightness of the vote may have been intentional)Scott_P said:
I understand he has asked Tory MPs not to rely on being paired, i.e. bums on seats where possible.0 -
If "total failure" means no Brexit, do they have a view on how that might come about?timmo said:A very good friend of mine who is a london MP told me today that he and others who are Brexiteers have spoken to the likes of Steve Baker and Mogg and told them to stop boxing TM in and give her some room to manoeuver because failure to do so will lead in total failure.
0 -
May’s 14 point lead is among her highest since the GE - the highest being +15. Unfortunately the Tories are stupid enough to dump her.0
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General election leading to corbyn winning and being forced into second referendum methinks.williamglenn said:
If "total failure" means no Brexit, do they have a view on how that might come about?timmo said:A very good friend of mine who is a london MP told me today that he and others who are Brexiteers have spoken to the likes of Steve Baker and Mogg and told them to stop boxing TM in and give her some room to manoeuver because failure to do so will lead in total failure.
For what it's worth, I agree. If May falls the risk of 'No Brexit' is very much increased.0 -
If they think a Mayite Brexit is worse than no Brexit they should keep going. If not they should not.timmo said:A very good friend of mine who is a london MP told me today that he and others who are Brexiteers have spoken to the likes of Steve Baker and Mogg and told them to stop boxing TM in and give her some room to manoeuver because failure to do so will lead in total failure.
0 -
They will not dump herCarlottaVance said:May’s 14 point lead is among her highest since the GE - the highest being +15. Unfortunately the Tories are stupid enough to dump her.
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I think that was actually Flavius Punctilious Egregious Ridiculous.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Smithson, can be hard to tell. I forget if it was Galba or Otho who was said to have been a great potential emperor, if only he had never become one.
Likewise, Julian was plucked from academic pursuits yet became a very competent Caesar (somewhat iffier as an Augustus).
Edited extra bit: if it were*.0 -
On topic, I agree with Mike that now would be a stupid time to dump May for many reasons.
However, Westminster has its own rhythms and just because May is relatively popular in the country doesn't mean she'll survive. MPs need to weigh up not just what would happen were May to lose the vote but what would happen if she won it.
To my mind, by far the best option is for her to step down next summer (and if she won't go voluntarily, to be pushed then). There is insufficient impetus on domestic policy and what instincts for action she has are often bad ones. She certainly cannot be allowed to fight another general election.
However, if a vote comes before then, it's almost certain that if she wins, she will either do so by a narrow enough margin that her authority is shot, or by a big enough margin to see her through future threats. The former should lead to her resignation anyway, the latter would see her through to 2022. But if she cannot be allowed to go through to 2022, then MPs who would otherwise back her will still need to vote against that outcome and hope that they can rally around a sensible option to succeed her. For that reason if a vote is called, I reckon it's likely that she'd lose (I'd make it about a 4/7 shot at the moment), whatever the other risks and consequences.0 -
This discussion has been closed.