Just reviewed my Next PM/Next Con Leader betting position.
What a mess!
As of today's date I'm well placed unless:
1) Jeremy Corbyn is next Prime Minister 2) Jacob Rees-Mogg is next Prime Minister 3) David Miliband is next Prime Minister 4) Rishi Sunak becomes next Prime Minister without also being next Conservative leader.
My concerns are in that order.
I have three betting concerns:
1) May surviving till the end of the year 2) May surviving till the end of the year 3) Tester holding Montana (Which has seen no polling in ages)
May dropped another big hint that she's preparing for a second referendum there by ruling it out "at this stage of the negotiations".
I don’t recall that comment. I do recall May and Raab ruling out a second referendum and ruling out any other scenario than the UK leaving the EU on 29 March 2019.
We're going to get a court case that will have even more impact than R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union.
For those of us not watching - what is it (not pineapple & pizza, surely?)
(And for El_Capitano)
I suspect we shall see a court case to determine whether if Raab's definition of a meaningful vote is correct, ie the vote will be to accept May's deal or No Deal.
Assuming if Parliament doesn't override him and offer other options, which is what Frank Field suggested.
We are getting into even more messy constitutional grounds.
You won’t see anything of the sort. The Courts do not interfere in Parliamentary procedure.
They were willing to set parameters in R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union.
Understandable if the Aussie media didn't cover the story.
I am in the UK, thanks.
The Miller case was not about Parliamentary procedure, it was a matter of the powers of the executive as against Parliament. There is a timless Convention that Courts do not interfere (and in fact have no rights to interfere) in Parliamentary procedure. The meaningful vote issues relate entirely to this and will not be subject to Court challenge.
Would you like to bet on that?
That someone won't seek a judicial review on this?
We're going to get a court case that will have even more impact than R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union.
For those of us not watching - what is it (not pineapple & pizza, surely?)
(And for El_Capitano)
I suspect we shall see a court case to determine whether if Raab's definition of a meaningful vote is correct, ie the vote will be to accept May's deal or No Deal.
Assuming if Parliament doesn't override him and offer other options, which is what Frank Field suggested.
We are getting into even more messy constitutional grounds.
You won’t see anything of the sort. The Courts do not interfere in Parliamentary procedure.
They were willing to set parameters in R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union.
Understandable if the Aussie media didn't cover the story.
I am in the UK, thanks.
The Miller case was not about Parliamentary procedure, it was a matter of the powers of the executive as against Parliament. There is a timless Convention that Courts do not interfere (and in fact have no rights to interfere) in Parliamentary procedure. The meaningful vote issues relate entirely to this and will not be subject to Court challenge.
PB'ers are always happy to hear the views of tourists
We're going to get a court case that will have even more impact than R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union.
For those of us not watching - what is it (not pineapple & pizza, surely?)
(And for El_Capitano)
I suspect we shall see a court case to determine whether if Raab's definition of a meaningful vote is correct, ie the vote will be to accept May's deal or No Deal.
Assuming if Parliament doesn't override him and offer other options, which is what Frank Field suggested.
We are getting into even more messy constitutional grounds.
You won’t see anything of the sort. The Courts do not interfere in Parliamentary procedure.
They were willing to set parameters in R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union.
Understandable if the Aussie media didn't cover the story.
I am in the UK, thanks.
The Miller case was not about Parliamentary procedure, it was a matter of the powers of the executive as against Parliament. There is a timless Convention that Courts do not interfere (and in fact have no rights to interfere) in Parliamentary procedure. The meaningful vote issues relate entirely to this and will not be subject to Court challenge.
Should we say ‘welcome home’ or are you just over for a short visit?
Glancing at the Miller case, early on the judgement states the reason it was appropriate for the court to look at was it related to constitutional arrangements because it concerned the extent of ministers' power to effect changes in domestic law through the exercise of prerogative power at the international level, and the relationship between the UK government and parliament on the one hand and the devolved legislatures and administrations of the Scotland, Wales and NI on the other. Would a ruling on procedural acceptance or not of amendments really fall into the same thing, or do other parts suggest they would?
We're going to get a court case that will have even more impact than R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union.
For those of us not watching - what is it (not pineapple & pizza, surely?)
(And for El_Capitano)
I suspect we shall see a court case to determine whether if Raab's definition of a meaningful vote is correct, ie the vote will be to accept May's deal or No Deal.
Assuming if Parliament doesn't override him and offer other options, which is what Frank Field suggested.
We are getting into even more messy constitutional grounds.
You won’t see anything of the sort. The Courts do not interfere in Parliamentary procedure.
They were willing to set parameters in R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union.
Understandable if the Aussie media didn't cover the story.
I am in the UK, thanks.
The Miller case was not about Parliamentary procedure, it was a matter of the powers of the executive as against Parliament. There is a timless Convention that Courts do not interfere (and in fact have no rights to interfere) in Parliamentary procedure. The meaningful vote issues relate entirely to this and will not be subject to Court challenge.
Would you like to bet on that?
That someone won't seek a judicial review on this?
I don’t actually bet much, but I am happy to discuss a small bet that the UKSC will not choose to interfere in the determinations of Parliament in relation to a meaningful vote. Say GBP20 at evens?
The one thing uniting the HOC today is the utter condemnation of the abuse directed at the PM. Yvette Cooper has just added to the condemnation.
A complete own goal by ERG
Well it is clearly not united since some of them will be the ones who said it in the first place.
Steve Baker asking for the whip to be withdrawn from those abusing TM
So possibly it was not a leading light of the ERG...
I am not saying who it was
Do you know? Tim Shipman denied Bridgen was the source of his quotes.
He said "criticism of the PM was different in tone and volume from a number of MPs, some of them women", which implicates either Dorries or Jenkyns pretty directly.
We're going to get a court case that will have even more impact than R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union.
For those of us not watching - what is it (not pineapple & pizza, surely?)
(And for El_Capitano)
I suspect we shall see a court case to determine whether if Raab's definition of a meaningful vote is correct, ie the vote will be to accept May's deal or No Deal.
Assuming if Parliament doesn't override him and offer other options, which is what Frank Field suggested.
We are getting into even more messy constitutional grounds.
You won’t see anything of the sort. The Courts do not interfere in Parliamentary procedure.
They were willing to set parameters in R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union.
Understandable if the Aussie media didn't cover the story.
I am in the UK, thanks.
The Miller case was not about Parliamentary procedure, it was a matter of the powers of the executive as against Parliament. There is a timless Convention that Courts do not interfere (and in fact have no rights to interfere) in Parliamentary procedure. The meaningful vote issues relate entirely to this and will not be subject to Court challenge.
Would you like to bet on that?
That someone won't seek a judicial review on this?
I don’t actually bet much, but I am happy to discuss a small bet that the UKSC will not choose to interfere in the determinations of Parliament in relation to a meaningful vote. Say GBP20 at evens?
If you're willing to accept as the Supreme Court is willing to hear an appeal on this counts as interference.
The one thing uniting the HOC today is the utter condemnation of the abuse directed at the PM. Yvette Cooper has just added to the condemnation.
A complete own goal by ERG
Well it is clearly not united since some of them will be the ones who said it in the first place.
Steve Baker asking for the whip to be withdrawn from those abusing TM
So possibly it was not a leading light of the ERG...
I am not saying who it was
Do you know? Tim Shipman denied Bridgen was the source of his quotes.
He said "criticism of the PM was different in tone and volume from a number of MPs, some of them women", which implicates either Dorries or Jenkyns pretty directly.
It would need to be a short woman to fit earlier clues.
We're going to get a court case that will have even more impact than R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union.
For those of us not watching - what is it (not pineapple & pizza, surely?)
(And for El_Capitano)
I suspect we shall see a court case to determine whether if Raab's definition of a meaningful vote is correct, ie the vote will be to accept May's deal or No Deal.
Assuming if Parliament doesn't override him and offer other options, which is what Frank Field suggested.
We are getting into even more messy constitutional grounds.
You won’t see anything of the sort. The Courts do not interfere in Parliamentary procedure.
They were willing to set parameters in R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union.
Understandable if the Aussie media didn't cover the story.
I am in the UK, thanks.
The Miller case was not about Parliamentary procedure, it was a matter of the powers of the executive as against Parliament. There is a timless Convention that Courts do not interfere (and in fact have no rights to interfere) in Parliamentary procedure. The meaningful vote issues relate entirely to this and will not be subject to Court challenge.
Would you like to bet on that?
That someone won't seek a judicial review on this?
I don’t actually bet much, but I am happy to discuss a small bet that the UKSC will not choose to interfere in the determinations of Parliament in relation to a meaningful vote. Say GBP20 at evens?
You have the advantage that if you are right the real cost to you of £20 is likely to reduce.
We're going to get a court case that will have even more impact than R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union.
For those of us not watching - what is it (not pineapple & pizza, surely?)
(And for El_Capitano)
I suspect we shall see a court case to determine whether if Raab's definition of a meaningful vote is correct, ie the vote will be to accept May's deal or No Deal.
Assuming if Parliament doesn't override him and offer other options, which is what Frank Field suggested.
We are getting into even more messy constitutional grounds.
You won’t see anything of the sort. The Courts do not interfere in Parliamentary procedure.
They were willing to set parameters in R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union.
Understandable if the Aussie media didn't cover the story.
I am in the UK, thanks.
The Miller case was not about Parliamentary procedure, it was a matter of the powers of the executive as against Parliament. There is a timless Convention that Courts do not interfere (and in fact have no rights to interfere) in Parliamentary procedure. The meaningful vote issues relate entirely to this and will not be subject to Court challenge.
Should we say ‘welcome home’ or are you just over for a short visit?
Perhaps he has been deported back to us as part of Brexit?
The one thing uniting the HOC today is the utter condemnation of the abuse directed at the PM. Yvette Cooper has just added to the condemnation.
A complete own goal by ERG
Well it is clearly not united since some of them will be the ones who said it in the first place.
Steve Baker asking for the whip to be withdrawn from those abusing TM
So possibly it was not a leading light of the ERG...
I am not saying who it was
Do you know? Tim Shipman denied Bridgen was the source of his quotes.
He said "criticism of the PM was different in tone and volume from a number of MPs, some of them women", which implicates either Dorries or Jenkyns pretty directly.
It would need to be a short woman to fit earlier clues.
I think the earlier clues were based on people assuming it was Bridgen.
The one thing uniting the HOC today is the utter condemnation of the abuse directed at the PM. Yvette Cooper has just added to the condemnation.
A complete own goal by ERG
Well it is clearly not united since some of them will be the ones who said it in the first place.
Steve Baker asking for the whip to be withdrawn from those abusing TM
So possibly it was not a leading light of the ERG...
I am not saying who it was
Do you know? Tim Shipman denied Bridgen was the source of his quotes.
He said "criticism of the PM was different in tone and volume from a number of MPs, some of them women", which implicates either Dorries or Jenkyns pretty directly.
It would need to be a short woman to fit earlier clues.
I think the earlier clues were based on people assuming it was Bridgen.
Didn't the earlier clue come from the same person who now says it wasn't Bridgen?
Just reviewed my Next PM/Next Con Leader betting position.
What a mess!
As of today's date I'm well placed unless:
1) Jeremy Corbyn is next Prime Minister 2) Jacob Rees-Mogg is next Prime Minister 3) David Miliband is next Prime Minister 4) Rishi Sunak becomes next Prime Minister without also being next Conservative leader.
My concerns are in that order.
I have three betting concerns:
1) May surviving till the end of the year 2) May surviving till the end of the year 3) Tester holding Montana (Which has seen no polling in ages)
The one thing uniting the HOC today is the utter condemnation of the abuse directed at the PM. Yvette Cooper has just added to the condemnation.
A complete own goal by ERG
Well it is clearly not united since some of them will be the ones who said it in the first place.
Steve Baker asking for the whip to be withdrawn from those abusing TM
So possibly it was not a leading light of the ERG...
I am not saying who it was
Do you know? Tim Shipman denied Bridgen was the source of his quotes.
He said "criticism of the PM was different in tone and volume from a number of MPs, some of them women", which implicates either Dorries or Jenkyns pretty directly.
It would need to be a short woman to fit earlier clues.
I think the earlier clues were based on people assuming it was Bridgen.
Didn't the earlier clue come from the same person who now says it wasn't Bridgen?
Today has been the worst day for the Brexiteers since the day of the referendum itself. I wonder who the mysterious Tory MP is responsible for the vile messages. The next Brexit opinion could be interesting.
The PM on top of her game today, at her best when it comes to memorising reams of detail and minutiae. Certainly looks to be a confident performance anyway. Interesting she is mooting that the EU is shifting to a whole UK backstop rather than just NI. We may well be close.
Today has been the worst day for the Brexiteers since the day of the referendum itself. I wonder who the mysterious Tory MP is responsible for the vile messages. The next Brexit opinion could be interesting.
Today has been the worst day for the Brexiteers since the day of the referendum itself. I wonder who the mysterious Tory MP is responsible for the vile messages. The next Brexit opinion could be interesting.
Indeed. Whatever was left of the mask has slipped. Vile violent stuff, the true face of the nasty hard right.
Today has been the worst day for the Brexiteers since the day of the referendum itself. I wonder who the mysterious Tory MP is responsible for the vile messages. The next Brexit opinion could be interesting.
You have completely missed the big picture.
A week ago, May sent her negotiator into Brussels to sell out on a permanent NI only backstop backed by a permament UK customs union.
What did she say today? No NI only backstop; UK wide backstop has to be able to terminated by the UK; UK has to be out of the CU backstop ‘well before’ the next election.
She is saying what the ERG have told her she must say.
And, as JRM made clear today, she is never going to get a political declaration that actually sets out a trade agreement - but May was forced today to say she would and that the EU would agree a plan based on Chequers.
She can’t deliver obviously as the EU will never agree. But that is her problem. No reason for the ERG to rock the boat today when she has locked herself into a process that will either lead to no deal, or a total capitulation that will lead to her immediate removal.
On that subject, I was reading about the last Chinese imperial eunuch who died in 1998.
He was made a eunuch when a boy when his father (sensitive readers may want to look away) sliced off his penis and testicles with a carving knife. The father was engaged in a long-running boundary dispute, and hoped that having a son as imperial eunuch would help get judgement in his favour.
Today has been the worst day for the Brexiteers since the day of the referendum itself. I wonder who the mysterious Tory MP is responsible for the vile messages. The next Brexit opinion could be interesting.
You have completely missed the big picture.
A week ago, May sent her negotiator into Brussels to sell out on a permanent NI only backstop backed by a permament UK customs union.
What did she say today? No NI only backstop; UK wide backstop has to be able to terminated by the UK; UK has to be out of the CU backstop ‘well before’ the next election.
She is saying what the ERG have told her she must say.
And, as JRM made clear today, she is never going to get a political declaration that actually sets out a trade agreement - but May was forced today to say she would and that the EU would agree a plan based on Chequers.
She can’t deliver obviously as the EU will never agree. But that is her problem. No reason for the ERG to rock the boat today when she has locked herself into a process that will either lead to no deal, or a total capitulation that will lead to her immediate removal.
It has been a great week for Leavers.
With respect it has been a disaster for ERG with the comprehensive condemnation across the house over the abuse directed to TM by one of their fold.
We're going to get a court case that will have even more impact than R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union.
For those of us not watching - what is it (not pineapple & pizza, surely?)
(And for El_Capitano)
I suspect we shall see a court case to determine whether if Raab's definition of a meaningful vote is correct, ie the vote will be to accept May's deal or No Deal.
Assuming if Parliament doesn't override him and offer other options, which is what Frank Field suggested.
We are getting into even more messy constitutional grounds.
You won’t see anything of the sort. The Courts do not interfere in Parliamentary procedure.
They were willing to set parameters in R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union.
Understandable if the Aussie media didn't cover the story.
I am in the UK, thanks.
The Miller case was not about Parliamentary procedure, it was a matter of the powers of the executive as against Parliament. There is a timless Convention that Courts do not interfere (and in fact have no rights to interfere) in Parliamentary procedure. The meaningful vote issues relate entirely to this and will not be subject to Court challenge.
Would you like to bet on that?
That someone won't seek a judicial review on this?
I don’t actually bet much, but I am happy to discuss a small bet that the UKSC will not choose to interfere in the determinations of Parliament in relation to a meaningful vote. Say GBP20 at evens?
If you're willing to accept as the Supreme Court is willing to hear an appeal on this counts as interference.
OK as long as they actually hear the case, not just have it refered to them. Can you agree pounds or will you insist that you will have pay in Euro?
May dropped another big hint that she's preparing for a second referendum there by ruling it out "at this stage of the negotiations".
I don’t recall that comment. I do recall May and Raab ruling out a second referendum and ruling out any other scenario than the UK leaving the EU on 29 March 2019.
Today has been the worst day for the Brexiteers since the day of the referendum itself. I wonder who the mysterious Tory MP is responsible for the vile messages. The next Brexit opinion could be interesting.
You have completely missed the big picture.
A week ago, May sent her negotiator into Brussels to sell out on a permanent NI only backstop backed by a permament UK customs union.
What did she say today? No NI only backstop; UK wide backstop has to be able to terminated by the UK; UK has to be out of the CU backstop ‘well before’ the next election.
She is saying what the ERG have told her she must say.
And, as JRM made clear today, she is never going to get a political declaration that actually sets out a trade agreement - but May was forced today to say she would and that the EU would agree a plan based on Chequers.
She can’t deliver obviously as the EU will never agree. But that is her problem. No reason for the ERG to rock the boat today when she has locked herself into a process that will either lead to no deal, or a total capitulation that will lead to her immediate removal.
It has been a great week for Leavers.
May also refused to rule out EUref2 if negotiations broke down for the first time, so Brexit could be reversed completely if No Deal.
However she is still aiming for a solution on the backstop, probably with sone vague commitment as to when it can end
Today has been the worst day for the Brexiteers since the day of the referendum itself. I wonder who the mysterious Tory MP is responsible for the vile messages. The next Brexit opinion could be interesting.
You have completely missed the big picture.
A week ago, May sent her negotiator into Brussels to sell out on a permanent NI only backstop backed by a permament UK customs union.
What did she say today? No NI only backstop; UK wide backstop has to be able to terminated by the UK; UK has to be out of the CU backstop ‘well before’ the next election.
She is saying what the ERG have told her she must say.
And, as JRM made clear today, she is never going to get a political declaration that actually sets out a trade agreement - but May was forced today to say she would and that the EU would agree a plan based on Chequers.
She can’t deliver obviously as the EU will never agree. But that is her problem. No reason for the ERG to rock the boat today when she has locked herself into a process that will either lead to no deal, or a total capitulation that will lead to her immediate removal.
It has been a great week for Leavers.
With respect it has been a disaster for ERG with the comprehensive condemnation across the house over the abuse directed to TM by one of their fold.
That will blow over in a day; facts remain that May was forced to the House today and set out conditions to the EU dictated by leavers.
Today has been the worst day for the Brexiteers since the day of the referendum itself. I wonder who the mysterious Tory MP is responsible for the vile messages. The next Brexit opinion could be interesting.
You have completely missed the big picture.
A week ago, May sent her negotiator into Brussels to sell out on a permanent NI only backstop backed by a permament UK customs union.
What did she say today? No NI only backstop; UK wide backstop has to be able to terminated by the UK; UK has to be out of the CU backstop ‘well before’ the next election.
She is saying what the ERG have told her she must say.
And, as JRM made clear today, she is never going to get a political declaration that actually sets out a trade agreement - but May was forced today to say she would and that the EU would agree a plan based on Chequers.
She can’t deliver obviously as the EU will never agree. But that is her problem. No reason for the ERG to rock the boat today when she has locked herself into a process that will either lead to no deal, or a total capitulation that will lead to her immediate removal.
It has been a great week for Leavers.
With respect it has been a disaster for ERG with the comprehensive condemnation across the house over the abuse directed to TM by one of their fold.
That will blow over in a day; facts remain that May was forced to the House today and set out conditions to the EU dictated by leavers.
We're going to get a court case that will have even more impact than R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union.
For those of us not watching - what is it (not pineapple & pizza, surely?)
(And for El_Capitano)
I suspect we shall see a court case to determine whether if Raab's definition of a meaningful vote is correct, ie the vote will be to accept May's deal or No Deal.
Assuming if Parliament doesn't override him and offer other options, which is what Frank Field suggested.
We are getting into even more messy constitutional grounds.
You won’t see anything of the sort. The Courts do not interfere in Parliamentary procedure.
They were willing to set parameters in R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union.
Understandable if the Aussie media didn't cover the story.
I am in the UK, thanks.
The Miller case was not about Parliamentary procedure, it was a matter of the powers of the executive as against Parliament. There is a timless Convention that Courts do not interfere (and in fact have no rights to interfere) in Parliamentary procedure. The meaningful vote issues relate entirely to this and will not be subject to Court challenge.
Would you like to bet on that?
That someone won't seek a judicial review on this?
I don’t actually bet much, but I am happy to discuss a small bet that the UKSC will not choose to interfere in the determinations of Parliament in relation to a meaningful vote. Say GBP20 at evens?
If you're willing to accept as the Supreme Court is willing to hear an appeal on this counts as interference.
OK as long as they actually hear the case, not just have it refered to them. Can you agree pounds or will you insist that you will have pay in Euro?
Agreed.
It’ll be in the Queen’s money, that’s Sterling not the Aussie dollar.
Today has been the worst day for the Brexiteers since the day of the referendum itself. I wonder who the mysterious Tory MP is responsible for the vile messages. The next Brexit opinion could be interesting.
You have completely missed the big picture.
A week ago, May sent her negotiator into Brussels to sell out on a permanent NI only backstop backed by a permament UK customs union.
What did she say today? No NI only backstop; UK wide backstop has to be able to terminated by the UK; UK has to be out of the CU backstop ‘well before’ the next election.
She is saying what the ERG have told her she must say.
And, as JRM made clear today, she is never going to get a political declaration that actually sets out a trade agreement - but May was forced today to say she would and that the EU would agree a plan based on Chequers.
She can’t deliver obviously as the EU will never agree. But that is her problem. No reason for the ERG to rock the boat today when she has locked herself into a process that will either lead to no deal, or a total capitulation that will lead to her immediate removal.
It has been a great week for Leavers.
May also refused to rule out EUref2 if negotiations broke down for the first time, so Brexit could be reversed completely if No Deal.
However she is still aiming for a solution on the backstop, probably with sone vague commitment as to when it can end
Vague commitment won’t work - Attorney General is on the case. Cabinet leavers have demanded legal advice on the exit mechanism and it will either be legally enforceable or it won’t. Cox won’t fudge it.
"Democrats hope for a mega-wave on Election Day. They may still get one. But at present, strategists in both parties tell us they see a Democratic gain of 20 to 35 House seats as the likeliest outcome. Democrats need 23 to flip the chamber."
Today has been the worst day for the Brexiteers since the day of the referendum itself. I wonder who the mysterious Tory MP is responsible for the vile messages. The next Brexit opinion could be interesting.
You have completely missed the big picture.
A week ago, May sent her negotiator into Brussels to sell out on a permanent NI only backstop backed by a permament UK customs union.
What did she say today? No NI only backstop; UK wide backstop has to be able to terminated by the UK; UK has to be out of the CU backstop ‘well before’ the next election.
She is saying what the ERG have told her she must say.
And, as JRM made clear today, she is never going to get a political declaration that actually sets out a trade agreement - but May was forced today to say she would and that the EU would agree a plan based on Chequers.
She can’t deliver obviously as the EU will never agree. But that is her problem. No reason for the ERG to rock the boat today when she has locked herself into a process that will either lead to no deal, or a total capitulation that will lead to her immediate removal.
It has been a great week for Leavers.
With respect it has been a disaster for ERG with the comprehensive condemnation across the house over the abuse directed to TM by one of their fold.
That will blow over in a day; facts remain that May was forced to the House today and set out conditions to the EU dictated by leavers.
Isn't that what the leavers want ?!
Yes. That is my point - strategic victory for ERG today.
Even a casual look at this story suggests the Saudis are struggling to provide even marginally plausible explanations to give reluctant allies something to cling to, not least since they even didn't admit the poor man was killed for quite some time.
We're going to get a court case that will have even more impact than R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union.
For those of us not watching - what is it (not pineapple & pizza, surely?)
(And for El_Capitano)
I suspect we shall see a court case to determine whether if Raab's definition of a meaningful vote is correct, ie the vote will be to accept May's deal or No Deal.
Assuming if Parliament doesn't override him and offer other options, which is what Frank Field suggested.
We are getting into even more messy constitutional grounds.
You won’t see anything of the sort. The Courts do not interfere in Parliamentary procedure.
They were willing to set parameters in R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union.
Understandable if the Aussie media didn't cover the story.
I am in the UK, thanks.
The Miller case was not about Parliamentary procedure, it was a matter of the powers of the executive as against Parliament. There is a timless Convention that Courts do not interfere (and in fact have no rights to interfere) in Parliamentary procedure. The meaningful vote issues relate entirely to this and will not be subject to Court challenge.
Would you like to bet on that?
That someone won't seek a judicial review on this?
I don’t actually bet much, but I am happy to discuss a small bet that the UKSC will not choose to interfere in the determinations of Parliament in relation to a meaningful vote. Say GBP20 at evens?
If you're willing to accept as the Supreme Court is willing to hear an appeal on this counts as interference.
OK as long as they actually hear the case, not just have it refered to them. Can you agree pounds or will you insist that you will have pay in Euro?
Agreed.
It’ll be in the Queen’s money, that’s Sterling not the Aussie dollar.
Actually the Queen is Australia’s head of state, so that is her money too!
We're going to get a court case that will have even more impact than R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union.
For those of us not watching - what is it (not pineapple & pizza, surely?)
(And for El_Capitano)
I suspect we shall see a court case to determine whether if Raab's definition of a meaningful vote is correct, ie the vote will be to accept May's deal or No Deal.
Assuming if Parliament doesn't override him and offer other options, which is what Frank Field suggested.
We are getting into even more messy constitutional grounds.
You won’t see anything of the sort. The Courts do not interfere in Parliamentary procedure.
They were willing to set parameters in R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union.
Understandable if the Aussie media didn't cover the story.
I am in the UK, thanks.
The Miller case was not about Parliamentary procedure, it was a matter of the powers of the executive as against Parliament. There is a timless Convention that Courts do not interfere (and in fact have no rights to interfere) in Parliamentary procedure. The meaningful vote issues relate entirely to this and will not be subject to Court challenge.
Would you like to bet on that?
That someone won't seek a judicial review on this?
I don’t actually bet much, but I am happy to discuss a small bet that the UKSC will not choose to interfere in the determinations of Parliament in relation to a meaningful vote. Say GBP20 at evens?
If you're willing to accept as the Supreme Court is willing to hear an appeal on this counts as interference.
OK as long as they actually hear the case, not just have it refered to them. Can you agree pounds or will you insist that you will have pay in Euro?
Agreed.
It’ll be in the Queen’s money, that’s Sterling not the Aussie dollar.
Actually the Queen is Australia’s head of state, so that is her money too!
I know. That’s why I clarified with you to avoid any confusion.
Whenever England play Australia I always sing ‘God save YOUR Queen’.
I'll be surprised if the EU don't want an end to the backstop at some point as it effectively gives the UK the benefits of the customs union outside the EU
Even a casual look at this story suggests the Saudis are struggling to provide even marginally plausible explanations to give reluctant allies something to cling to, not least since they even didn't admit the poor man was killed for quite some time.
Marco Rubio has managed to come up with the worst take on it from a Western politician.
We're going to get a court case that will have even more impact than R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union.
For those of us not watching - what is it (not pineapple & pizza, surely?)
(And for El_Capitano)
I suspect we shall see a court case to determine whether if Raab's definition of a meaningful vote is correct, ie the vote will be to accept May's deal or No Deal.
Assuming if Parliament doesn't override him and offer other options, which is what Frank Field suggested.
We are getting into even more messy constitutional grounds.
You won’t see anything of the sort. The Courts do not interfere in Parliamentary procedure.
They were willing to set parameters in R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union.
Understandable if the Aussie media didn't cover the story.
I am in the UK, thanks.
The Miller case was not about Parliamentary procedure, it was a matter of the powers of the executive as against Parliament. There is a timless Convention that Courts do not interfere (and in fact have no rights to interfere) in Parliamentary procedure. The meaningful vote issues relate entirely to this and will not be subject to Court challenge.
Would you like to bet on that?
That someone won't seek a judicial review on this?
I don’t actually bet much, but I am happy to discuss a small bet that the UKSC will not choose to interfere in the determinations of Parliament in relation to a meaningful vote. Say GBP20 at evens?
If you're willing to accept as the Supreme Court is willing to hear an appeal on this counts as interference.
OK as long as they actually hear the case, not just have it refered to them. Can you agree pounds or will you insist that you will have pay in Euro?
Agreed.
It’ll be in the Queen’s money, that’s Sterling not the Aussie dollar.
Actually the Queen is Australia’s head of state, so that is her money too!
I know. That’s why I clarified with you to avoid any confusion.
Whenever England play Australia I always sing ‘God save YOUR Queen’.
Even a casual look at this story suggests the Saudis are struggling to provide even marginally plausible explanations to give reluctant allies something to cling to, not least since they even didn't admit the poor man was killed for quite some time.
Marco Rubio has managed to come up with the worst take on it from a Western politician.
"Democrats hope for a mega-wave on Election Day. They may still get one. But at present, strategists in both parties tell us they see a Democratic gain of 20 to 35 House seats as the likeliest outcome. Democrats need 23 to flip the chamber."
I'll be surprised if the EU don't want an end to the backstop at some point as it effectively gives the UK the benefits of the customs union outside the EU
Yes, The Irish backstop gives NI unique privileges of being in SM and CU, at no cost. It is amajor concession by the EU.
Today has been the worst day for the Brexiteers since the day of the referendum itself. I wonder who the mysterious Tory MP is responsible for the vile messages. The next Brexit opinion could be interesting.
You have completely missed the big picture.
A week ago, May sent her negotiator into Brussels to sell out on a permanent NI only backstop backed by a permament UK customs union.
What did she say today? No NI only backstop; UK wide backstop has to be able to terminated by the UK; UK has to be out of the CU backstop ‘well before’ the next election.
She is saying what the ERG have told her she must say.
And, as JRM made clear today, she is never going to get a political declaration that actually sets out a trade agreement - but May was forced today to say she would and that the EU would agree a plan based on Chequers.
She can’t deliver obviously as the EU will never agree. But that is her problem. No reason for the ERG to rock the boat today when she has locked herself into a process that will either lead to no deal, or a total capitulation that will lead to her immediate removal.
It has been a great week for Leavers.
With respect it has been a disaster for ERG with the comprehensive condemnation across the house over the abuse directed to TM by one of their fold.
That will blow over in a day; facts remain that May was forced to the House today and set out conditions to the EU dictated by leavers.
If you think the abuse will blow over in a day you are in denial. Today has shown that the abuse delivered from within the ERG has dealt a huge blow to them.
And you are not even credible when saying TM was forced to the house. No she was not, she is required to give a statement on EU council meetings as soon as possible after their conclusion and today was no different than all the other times she has done such a report.
And by the way, TM has has a good day.
5% poll lead, improving public approval to near highest level confirming Sophy Ridge's report from Cambridge yesterday, wide political condemnation across the house against her abusers, Steve Baker withdrawing his amendment, and a confident performance at the dispatch box
Today has been the worst day for the Brexiteers since the day of the referendum itself. I wonder who the mysterious Tory MP is responsible for the vile messages. The next Brexit opinion could be interesting.
You have completely missed the big picture.
A week ago, May sent her negotiator into Brussels to sell out on a permanent NI only backstop backed by a permament UK customs union.
What did she say today? No NI only backstop; UK wide backstop has to be able to terminated by the UK; UK has to be out of the CU backstop ‘well before’ the next election.
She is saying what the ERG have told her she must say.
And, as JRM made clear today, she is never going to get a political declaration that actually sets out a trade agreement - but May was forced today to say she would and that the EU would agree a plan based on Chequers.
She can’t deliver obviously as the EU will never agree. But that is her problem. No reason for the ERG to rock the boat today when she has locked herself into a process that will either lead to no deal, or a total capitulation that will lead to her immediate removal.
It has been a great week for Leavers.
May also refused to rule out EUref2 if negotiations broke down for the first time, so Brexit could be reversed completely if No Deal.
However she is still aiming for a solution on the backstop, probably with sone vague commitment as to when it can end
Vague commitment won’t work - Attorney General is on the case. Cabinet leavers have demanded legal advice on the exit mechanism and it will either be legally enforceable or it won’t. Cox won’t fudge it.
It will be a commitment based on a technical solution being found to the Irish border as the circumstance in which the backstop ends
Today has been the worst day for the Brexiteers since the day of the referendum itself. I wonder who the mysterious Tory MP is responsible for the vile messages. The next Brexit opinion could be interesting.
You have completely missed the big picture.
A week ago, May sent her negotiator into Brussels to sell out on a permanent NI only backstop backed by a permament UK customs union.
What did she say today? No NI only backstop; UK wide backstop has to be able to terminated by the UK; UK has to be out of the CU backstop ‘well before’ the next election.
She is saying what the ERG have told her she must say.
And, as JRM made clear today, she is never going to get a political declaration that actually sets out a trade agreement - but May was forced today to say she would and that the EU would agree a plan based on Chequers.
She can’t deliver obviously as the EU will never agree. But that is her problem. No reason for the ERG to rock the boat today when she has locked herself into a process that will either lead to no deal, or a total capitulation that will lead to her immediate removal.
It has been a great week for Leavers.
May also refused to rule out EUref2 if negotiations broke down for the first time, so Brexit could be reversed completely if No Deal.
However she is still aiming for a solution on the backstop, probably with sone vague commitment as to when it can end
Vague commitment won’t work - Attorney General is on the case. Cabinet leavers have demanded legal advice on the exit mechanism and it will either be legally enforceable or it won’t. Cox won’t fudge it.
It will be a commitment based on a technical solution being found to the Irish border as the circumstance in which the backstop ends
Probably reelection of the Tories too. The main difference between Labour and the Tories right now seems to be Labour accepting a permanent CU and the Tories accepting an indefinite CU. Note Corbyn did not mention single market today.
"Democrats hope for a mega-wave on Election Day. They may still get one. But at present, strategists in both parties tell us they see a Democratic gain of 20 to 35 House seats as the likeliest outcome. Democrats need 23 to flip the chamber."
We're going to get a court case that will have even more impact than R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union.
For those of us not watching - what is it (not pineapple & pizza, surely?)
(And for El_Capitano)
I suspect we shall see a court case to determine whether if Raab's definition of a meaningful vote is correct, ie the vote will be to accept May's deal or No Deal.
Assuming if Parliament doesn't override him and offer other options, which is what Frank Field suggested.
We are getting into even more messy constitutional grounds.
You won’t see anything of the sort. The Courts do not interfere in Parliamentary procedure.
They were willing to set parameters in R v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union.
Understandable if the Aussie media didn't cover the story.
I am in the UK, thanks.
The Miller case was not about Parliamentary procedure, it was a matter of the powers of the executive as against Parliament. There is a timless Convention that Courts do not interfere (and in fact have no rights to interfere) in Parliamentary procedure. The meaningful vote issues relate entirely to this and will not be subject to Court challenge.
Would you like to bet on that?
That someone won't seek a judicial review on this?
I don’t actually bet much, but I am happy to discuss a small bet that the UKSC will not choose to interfere in the determinations of Parliament in relation to a meaningful vote. Say GBP20 at evens?
If you're willing to accept as the Supreme Court is willing to hear an appeal on this counts as interference.
OK as long as they actually hear the case, not just have it refered to them. Can you agree pounds or will you insist that you will have pay in Euro?
Agreed.
It’ll be in the Queen’s money, that’s Sterling not the Aussie dollar.
Actually the Queen is Australia’s head of state, so that is her money too!
Lizzie is Head of State of the following sovereign nations:
UK Antigua and Barbuda Australia The Bahamas Barbados Belize Canada Grenada Jamaica New Zealand Papua New Guinea Saint Kitts and Nevis Saint Lucia Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Solomon Islands Tuvalu
Today has been the worst day for the Brexiteers since the day of the referendum itself. I wonder who the mysterious Tory MP is responsible for the vile messages. The next Brexit opinion could be interesting.
You have completely missed the big picture.
A week ago, May sent her negotiator into Brussels to sell out on a permanent NI only backstop backed by a permament UK customs union.
What did she say today? No NI only backstop; UK wide backstop has to be able to terminated by the UK; UK has to be out of the CU backstop ‘well before’ the next election.
She is saying what the ERG have told her she must say.
And, as JRM made clear today, she is never going to get a political declaration that actually sets out a trade agreement - but May was forced today to say she would and that the EU would agree a plan based on Chequers.
She can’t deliver obviously as the EU will never agree. But that is her problem. No reason for the ERG to rock the boat today when she has locked herself into a process that will either lead to no deal, or a total capitulation that will lead to her immediate removal.
It has been a great week for Leavers.
May also refused to rule out EUref2 if negotiations broke down for the first time, so Brexit could be reversed completely if No Deal.
However she is still aiming for a solution on the backstop, probably with sone vague commitment as to when it can end
Vague commitment won’t work - Attorney General is on the case. Cabinet leavers have demanded legal advice on the exit mechanism and it will either be legally enforceable or it won’t. Cox won’t fudge it.
It will be a commitment based on a technical solution being found to the Irish border as the circumstance in which the backstop ends
Today has been the worst day for the Brexiteers since the day of the referendum itself. I wonder who the mysterious Tory MP is responsible for the vile messages. The next Brexit opinion could be interesting.
You have completely missed the big picture.
A week ago, May sent her negotiator into Brussels to sell out on a permanent NI only backstop backed by a permament UK customs union.
What did she say today? No NI only backstop; UK wide backstop has to be able to terminated by the UK; UK has to be out of the CU backstop ‘well before’ the next election.
She is saying what the ERG have told her she must say.
And, as JRM made clear today, she is never going to get a political declaration that actually sets out a trade agreement - but May was forced today to say she would and that the EU would agree a plan based on Chequers.
She can’t deliver obviously as the EU will never agree. But that is her problem. No reason for the ERG to rock the boat today when she has locked herself into a process that will either lead to no deal, or a total capitulation that will lead to her immediate removal.
It has been a great week for Leavers.
With respect it has been a disaster for ERG with the comprehensive condemnation across the house over the abuse directed to TM by one of their fold.
That will blow over in a day; facts remain that May was forced to the House today and set out conditions to the EU dictated by leavers.
And by the way, TM has has a good day.
5% poll lead, improving public approval to near highest level confirming Sophy Ridge's report from Cambridge yesterday, wide political condemnation across the house against her abusers, Steve Baker withdrawing his amendment, and a confident performance at the dispatch box
The thing is though that the fundamental problems before remain very much in place, so a good day cannot provide security and could very quickly be followed by a very bad day.
Today has been the worst day for the Brexiteers since the day of the referendum itself. I wonder who the mysterious Tory MP is responsible for the vile messages. The next Brexit opinion could be interesting.
You have completely missed the big picture.
A week ago, May sent her negotiator into Brussels to sell out on a permanent NI only backstop backed by a permament UK customs union.
What did she say today? No NI only backstop; UK wide backstop has to be able to terminated by the UK; UK has to be out of the CU backstop ‘well before’ the next election.
She is saying what the ERG have told her she must say.
And, as JRM made clear today, she is never going to get a political declaration that actually sets out a trade agreement - but May was forced today to say she would and that the EU would agree a plan based on Chequers.
She can’t deliver obviously as the EU will never agree. But that is her problem. No reason for the ERG to rock the boat today when she has locked herself into a process that will either lead to no deal, or a total capitulation that will lead to her immediate removal.
It has been a great week for Leavers.
May also refused to rule out EUref2 if negotiations broke down for the first time, so Brexit could be reversed completely if No Deal.
However she is still aiming for a solution on the backstop, probably with sone vague commitment as to when it can end
Vague commitment won’t work - Attorney General is on the case. Cabinet leavers have demanded legal advice on the exit mechanism and it will either be legally enforceable or it won’t. Cox won’t fudge it.
It will be a commitment based on a technical solution being found to the Irish border as the circumstance in which the backstop ends
Could you make that more vague?
And if he can I suggest he gets a job in the No. 10 Press department, they have been trying that for ages.
Today has been the worst day for the Brexiteers since the day of the referendum itself. I wonder who the mysterious Tory MP is responsible for the vile messages. The next Brexit opinion could be interesting.
You have completely missed the big picture.
A week ago, May sent her negotiator into Brussels to sell out on a permanent NI only backstop backed by a permament UK customs union.
What did she say today? No NI only backstop; UK wide backstop has to be able to terminated by the UK; UK has to be out of the CU backstop ‘well before’ the next election.
She is saying what the ERG have told her she must say.
And, as JRM made clear today, she is never going to get a political declaration that actually sets out a trade agreement - but May was forced today to say she would and that the EU would agree a plan based on Chequers.
She can’t deliver obviously as the EU will never agree. But that is her problem. No reason for the ERG to rock the boat today when she has locked herself into a process that will either lead to no deal, or a total capitulation that will lead to her immediate removal.
It has been a great week for Leavers.
With respect it has been a disaster for ERG with the comprehensive condemnation across the house over the abuse directed to TM by one of their fold.
That will blow over in a day; facts remain that May was forced to the House today and set out conditions to the EU dictated by leavers.
And by the way, TM has has a good day.
5% poll lead, improving public approval to near highest level confirming Sophy Ridge's report from Cambridge yesterday, wide political condemnation across the house against her abusers, Steve Baker withdrawing his amendment, and a confident performance at the dispatch box
The thing is though that the fundamental problems before remain very much in place, so a good day cannot provide security and could very quickly be followed by a very bad day.
Common, she doesn't have that many good days.
I am sure you are charitable enough to give her a break
Today has been the worst day for the Brexiteers since the day of the referendum itself. I wonder who the mysterious Tory MP is responsible for the vile messages. The next Brexit opinion could be interesting.
You have completely missed the big picture.
A week ago, May sent her negotiator into Brussels to sell out on a permanent NI only backstop backed by a permament UK customs union.
What did she say today? No NI only backstop; UK wide backstop has to be able to terminated by the UK; UK has to be out of the CU backstop ‘well before’ the next election.
She is saying what the ERG have told her she must say.
And, as JRM made clear today, she is never going to get a political declaration that actually sets out a trade agreement - but May was forced today to say she would and that the EU would agree a plan based on Chequers.
She can’t deliver obviously as the EU will never agree. But that is her problem. No reason for the ERG to rock the boat today when she has locked herself into a process that will either lead to no deal, or a total capitulation that will lead to her immediate removal.
It has been a great week for Leavers.
With respect it has been a disaster for ERG with the comprehensive condemnation across the house over the abuse directed to TM by one of their fold.
That will blow over in a day; facts remain that May was forced to the House today and set out conditions to the EU dictated by leavers.
And by the way, TM has has a good day.
5% poll lead, improving public approval to near highest level confirming Sophy Ridge's report from Cambridge yesterday, wide political condemnation across the house against her abusers, Steve Baker withdrawing his amendment, and a confident performance at the dispatch box
The thing is though that the fundamental problems before remain very much in place, so a good day cannot provide security and could very quickly be followed by a very bad day.
Common, she doesn't have that many good days.
I am sure you are charitable enough to give her a break
I wish TMay all the best, I appreciate her efforts.
Today has been the worst day for the Brexiteers since the day of the referendum itself. I wonder who the mysterious Tory MP is responsible for the vile messages. The next Brexit opinion could be interesting.
You have completely missed the big picture.
A week ago, May sent her negotiator into Brussels to sell out on a permanent NI only backstop backed by a permament UK customs union.
What did she say today? No NI only backstop; UK wide backstop has to be able to terminated by the UK; UK has to be out of the CU backstop ‘well before’ the next election.
She is saying what the ERG have told her she must say.
And, as JRM made clear today, she is never going to get a political declaration that actually sets out a trade agreement - but May was forced today to say she would and that the EU would agree a plan based on Chequers.
She can’t deliver obviously as the EU will never agree. But that is her problem. No reason for the ERG to rock the boat today when she has locked herself into a process that will either lead to no deal, or a total capitulation that will lead to her immediate removal.
It has been a great week for Leavers.
With respect it has been a disaster for ERG with the comprehensive condemnation across the house over the abuse directed to TM by one of their fold.
That will blow over in a day; facts remain that May was forced to the House today and set out conditions to the EU dictated by leavers.
And by the way, TM has has a good day.
5% poll lead, improving public approval to near highest level confirming Sophy Ridge's report from Cambridge yesterday, wide political condemnation across the house against her abusers, Steve Baker withdrawing his amendment, and a confident performance at the dispatch box
The thing is though that the fundamental problems before remain very much in place, so a good day cannot provide security and could very quickly be followed by a very bad day.
Common, she doesn't have that many good days.
I am sure you are charitable enough to give her a break
I wish TMay all the best, I appreciate her efforts.
I believe many share your view and the vile abuse directed at her this weekend will have strengthened her position.
If ERG attempted a vnoc now after the abuse there would be fury and TM would win by a large margin
Today has been the worst day for the Brexiteers since the day of the referendum itself. I wonder who the mysterious Tory MP is responsible for the vile messages. The next Brexit opinion could be interesting.
You have completely missed the big picture.
A week ago, May sent her negotiator into Brussels to sell out on a permanent NI only backstop backed by a permament UK customs union.
What did she say today? No NI only backstop; UK wide backstop has to be able to terminated by the UK; UK has to be out of the CU backstop ‘well before’ the next election.
She is saying what the ERG have told her she must say.
Anay to say she would and that the EU would agree a plan based on Chequers.
She can’t deliver obviously as the EU will never agree. But that is her problem. No reason for the ERG to rock the boat today when she has locked herself into a process that will either lead to no deal, or a total capitulation that will lead to her immediate removal.
It has been a great week for Leavers.
With respect it has been a disaster for ERG with the comprehensive condemnation across the house over the abuse directed to TM by one of their fold.
That will blow over in a day; facts remain that May was forced to the House today and set out conditions to the EU dictated by leavers.
And by the way, TM has has a good day.
5% poll lead, improving public approval to near highest level confirming Sophy Ridge's report from Cambridge yesterday, wide political condemnation across the house against her abusers, Steve Baker withdrawing his amendment, and a confident performance at the dispatch box
The thing is though that the fundamental problems before remain very much in place, so a good day cannot provide security and could very quickly be followed by a very bad day.
Common, she doesn't have that many good days.
I am sure you are charitable enough to give her a break
I wish TMay all the best, I appreciate her efforts.
I believe many share your view and the vile abuse directed at her this weekend will have strengthened her position.
If ERG attempted a vnoc now after the abuse there would be fury and TM would win by a large margin
My guess is MPs are constantly saying much worse about each other than that. Just not to the press.I doubt that more than a handful actually care about this
Today has been the worst day for the Brexiteers since the day of the referendum itself. I wonder who the mysterious Tory MP is responsible for the vile messages. The next Brexit opinion could be interesting.
You have completely missed the big picture.
A week ago, May sent her negotiator into Brussels to sell out on a permanent NI only backstop backed by a permament UK customs union.
What did she say today? No NI only backstop; UK wide backstop has to be able to terminated by the UK; UK has to be out of the CU backstop ‘well before’ the next election.
She is saying what the ERG have told her she must say.
Anay to say she would and that the EU would agree a plan based on Chequers.
She can’t deliver obviously as the EU will never agree. But that is her problem. No reason for the ERG to rock the boat today when she has locked herself into a process that will either lead to no deal, or a total capitulation that will lead to her immediate removal.
It has been a great week for Leavers.
With respect it has been a disaster for ERG with the comprehensive condemnation across the house over the abuse directed to TM by one of their fold.
That will blow over in a day; facts remain that May was forced to the House today and set out conditions to the EU dictated by leavers.
And by the way, TM has has a good day.
5% poll lead, improving public approval to near highest level confirming Sophy Ridge's report from Cambridge yesterday, wide political condemnation across the house against her abusers, Steve Baker withdrawing his amendment, and a confident performance at the dispatch box
The thing is though that the fundamental problems before remain very much in place, so a good day cannot provide security and could very quickly be followed by a very bad day.
Common, she doesn't have that many good days.
I am sure you are charitable enough to give her a break
I wish TMay all the best, I appreciate her efforts.
I believe many share your view and the vile abuse directed at her this weekend will have strengthened her position.
If ERG attempted a vnoc now after the abuse there would be fury and TM would win by a large margin
My guess is MPs are constantly saying much worse about each other than that. Just not to the press.I doubt that more than a handful actually care about this
Well they should. Respect for each other holds society together
"Democrats hope for a mega-wave on Election Day. They may still get one. But at present, strategists in both parties tell us they see a Democratic gain of 20 to 35 House seats as the likeliest outcome. Democrats need 23 to flip the chamber."
Today has been the worst day for the Brexiteers since the day of the referendum itself. I wonder who the mysterious Tory MP is responsible for the vile messages. The next Brexit opinion could be interesting.
You have completely missed the big picture.
A week ago, May sent her negotiator into Brussels to sell out on a permanent NI only backstop backed by a permament UK customs union.
What did she say today? No NI only backstop; UK wide backstop has to be able to terminated by the UK; UK has to be out of the CU backstop ‘well before’ the next election.
She is saying what the ERG have told her she must say.
And, as JRM made clear today, she is never going to get a political declaration that actually sets out a trade agreement - but May was forced today to say she would and that the EU would agree a plan based on Chequers.
She can’t deliver obviously as the EU will never agree. But that is her problem. No reason for the ERG to rock the boat today when she has locked herself into a process that will either lead to no deal, or a total capitulation that will lead to her immediate removal.
It has been a great week for Leavers.
May also refused to rule out EUref2 if negotiations broke down for the first time, so Brexit could be reversed completely if No Deal.
However she is still aiming for a solution on the backstop, probably with sone vague commitment as to when it can end
Vague commitment won’t work - Attorney General is on the case. Cabinet leavers have demanded legal advice on the exit mechanism and it will either be legally enforceable or it won’t. Cox won’t fudge it.
It will be a commitment based on a technical solution being found to the Irish border as the circumstance in which the backstop ends
Probably reelection of the Tories too. The main difference between Labour and the Tories right now seems to be Labour accepting a permanent CU and the Tories accepting an indefinite CU. Note Corbyn did not mention single market today.
Starmer though want a single market in all but name
Comments
But I guess we hear what we want to hear.
That someone won't seek a judicial review on this?
https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1053988818863513600
A week ago, May sent her negotiator into Brussels to sell out on a permanent NI only backstop backed by a permament UK customs union.
What did she say today? No NI only backstop; UK wide backstop has to be able to terminated by the UK; UK has to be out of the CU backstop ‘well before’ the next election.
She is saying what the ERG have told her she must say.
And, as JRM made clear today, she is never going to get a political declaration that actually sets out a trade agreement - but May was forced today to say she would and that the EU would agree a plan based on Chequers.
She can’t deliver obviously as the EU will never agree. But that is her problem. No reason for the ERG to rock the boat today when she has locked herself into a process that will either lead to no deal, or a total capitulation that will lead to her immediate removal.
It has been a great week for Leavers.
It's a knife edge
... we know what happens next.
However she is still aiming for a solution on the backstop, probably with sone vague commitment as to when it can end
It’ll be in the Queen’s money, that’s Sterling not the Aussie dollar.
I was of course referring to the politics over the weekend, not my own experience.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/22/us/politics/house-senate-midterms.html
Whenever England play Australia I always sing ‘God save YOUR Queen’.
https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1054337430390743040
And you are not even credible when saying TM was forced to the house. No she was not, she is required to give a statement on EU council meetings as soon as possible after their conclusion and today was no different than all the other times she has done such a report.
And by the way, TM has has a good day.
5% poll lead, improving public approval to near highest level confirming Sophy Ridge's report from Cambridge yesterday, wide political condemnation across the house against her abusers, Steve Baker withdrawing his amendment, and a confident performance at the dispatch box
The main difference between Labour and the Tories right now seems to be Labour accepting a permanent CU and the Tories accepting an indefinite CU.
Note Corbyn did not mention single market today.
UK
Antigua and Barbuda
Australia
The Bahamas
Barbados
Belize
Canada
Grenada
Jamaica
New Zealand
Papua New Guinea
Saint Kitts and Nevis
Saint Lucia
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Solomon Islands
Tuvalu
I am sure you are charitable enough to give her a break
If ERG attempted a vnoc now after the abuse there would be fury and TM would win by a large margin
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