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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In contrast to new reports of a TMay confidence move YouGov gi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In contrast to new reports of a TMay confidence move YouGov give her the highest best PM rating since early June
This is getting so tiresome in sharp contrast to the PMs recovering poll ratings. It seems like every week at the moment hardline CON Brexiteers are briefing journos that they are very near to getting the 48 letters from MPs demanding a TMay conference vote.
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He was blindsided by a back stop he arranged and trumpeted.
Speaks volumes that he makes Boris look competent.
Next they’ll be touting IDS as May’s replacement.
https://twitter.com/bainesy1969/status/1054358569490022400?s=21
The system automatically logs every time I access an individual’s details.
If I want to access the entire file or departmental details it is logged to the Finance Director for approval.
So the Court of Appeal is really finding a non-delegable duty, not vicarious liability.
You are logic-chopping Mr Kle4 - you are correct in theory but in practice, here in the real world, there are only two options and both are split.
We aren't, because people don't think they are as bad as they claim.
What a mess!
Hunt is payday.
Plus some ragged leftovers from days which now seem long past - £6 on Michael Fallon at 80/1 seemed a good bet in October last year!
Personally I think they're both large groups of people that won't listen and lack pragmatism.
For the record, after the latest YouGov poll, the EMA is now showing the Tories 2% ahead of labour.
Con 39.7
Lab 37.6%
Con seats 313
Lab seats 258
LD 17
UKIP 0
Green 1
SNP 40
NI 18
Tories 13 short of an overall majority. Labour gain just one seat from Tories - Southampton Itchen.
Some sympathy out there in the Dog and Duck.
Please don't bring the government down while I am in the dark with my phone off.
I still think that she or whoever takes over will carry the can for the consequences of a bad Brexit.. whether that's because it's a rule-taking BINO or the economy tanking after some idiotic nonsense designed to avoid it.
Likewise, Julian was plucked from academic pursuits yet became a very competent Caesar (somewhat iffier as an Augustus).
Edited extra bit: if it were*.
To use a football analogy, there is a hardcore bunch of Ultras in the away end, and the rest of the ground is full of neutrals.
I would've gone for a heart surgery comparison myself.
Mr. Pulpstar, they're a masterclass in backfiring idiocy, as May is with jelly-spined capitulation and total lack of foresight (alas for us we have Prometheus' brother acting as her muse).
Had that not occurred and Cameron achieved his expected majority in 2010, he'd have governed alone and the Conservatives taken all the price of power, while the Lib Dems would have been untainted by compromise. Had Cameron then gone for a Brexit referendum as once promised, we could have had all this a couple of years earlier, but with a far stronger and more credible Lib Dem third party.
That could have got interesting.
But, I expect a Conservative majority Government would have been forced to be more eurosceptic and better able to defend/mitigate against the rise of UKIP.
So possibly swings and roundabouts.
1) Jeremy Corbyn is next Prime Minister
2) Jacob Rees-Mogg is next Prime Minister
3) David Miliband is next Prime Minister
4) Rishi Sunak becomes next Prime Minister without also being next Conservative leader.
My concerns are in that order.
1) May surviving till the end of the year
2) May surviving till the end of the year
3) Tester holding Montana (Which has seen no polling in ages)
Corbyn, Rees-Mogg, Johnson and Leadsom are all max red. I'm annoyed at having given away much of my Davis green, though I think that's still pretty unlikely I could have got a much better price for it.
Sajid is a v good result; my most plausible jackpot is Matt Hancock (there's still a chunk at 85 on next PM; not mine!)
I understand he has asked Tory MPs not to rely on being paired, i.e. bums on seats where possible.
For what it's worth, I agree. If May falls the risk of 'No Brexit' is very much increased.
However, Westminster has its own rhythms and just because May is relatively popular in the country doesn't mean she'll survive. MPs need to weigh up not just what would happen were May to lose the vote but what would happen if she won it.
To my mind, by far the best option is for her to step down next summer (and if she won't go voluntarily, to be pushed then). There is insufficient impetus on domestic policy and what instincts for action she has are often bad ones. She certainly cannot be allowed to fight another general election.
However, if a vote comes before then, it's almost certain that if she wins, she will either do so by a narrow enough margin that her authority is shot, or by a big enough margin to see her through future threats. The former should lead to her resignation anyway, the latter would see her through to 2022. But if she cannot be allowed to go through to 2022, then MPs who would otherwise back her will still need to vote against that outcome and hope that they can rally around a sensible option to succeed her. For that reason if a vote is called, I reckon it's likely that she'd lose (I'd make it about a 4/7 shot at the moment), whatever the other risks and consequences.