politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Video Analysis: Demographics – What We Can Do
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Video Analysis: Demographics – What We Can Do
Demographics discussions can depress. The problems – ignored by most politicians – seem vast but distant. Better to let someone else, elected later, worry about them.
Comments
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First. Like No Deal.0
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REMAINERS - KNOW YOUR LIMITS!
An ordinary dinner party, the sort of occasion we all enjoy. The LEAVERs are exchanging witty stories. And look at the REMAINERs; aren’t they pretty? Look at the way they laugh, they’re delightful. But now the conversation turns to more serious matters.
LEAVER 1:
“I wonder if the Government should stay out of the EU Customs Union”
LEAVER 2:
“I think it should.”
LEAVER 1:
“Good. Then we’re all agreed.”
But oh dear, what’s this? One of the REMAINERs is about to embarrass us all…
REMAINER:
“I think the Government should stay in the Customs Union, so that the Pound can reach a level that would keep our exports competitive.”
The REMAINER has foolishly attempted to join the conversation with a wild and dangerous opinion of his own! What half-baked drivel! See how the LEAVERS look at him with utter contempt!
LEAVER 2:
“Alastair, we’re going home!!”
REMAINERS - KNOW YOUR LIMITS!
Look at the effect of education on a LEAVER and a REMAINER’s mind. Education passes into the mind of a LEAVER. See how the information is evenly and tidily stored.
Now see the same thing on a REMAINER. At first we see a similar result. But now look. Still at a reasonably low level of education his brain suddenly overloads. He can't take in complicated information. He becomes frantically and absurdly deranged.
Look at these venomous harridans. They went to university. Hard to believe they are all under 25. Yes, over-education leads to ugliness, premature aging and beard growth. And ranting on online political betting fora.
Now, let’s see the proper way.
LEAVER 1:
“Good. So we’re all agreed. We should stay out of the Customs Union.”
REMAINER:
“Oh, I don’t know anything about the Northern Ireland Backstop, I’m afraid, but I do love little kittens! They’re so soft, and furry.”
LEAVER 2:
“What a delightful thought, you dear, sweet, fragile little thing! I adore you, Alastair!”
REMAINERS - KNOW YOUR LIMITS. In thought, be plain and simple, and let your natural sweetness shine through!
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4th like the number of centuries the Union may not reach if No Dealarcher101au said:First. Like No Deal.
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Actually, no it doesn't.FF43 said:
Thanks. The US has a pointCarlottaVance said:
ChinaFF43 said:
Why?rcs1000 said:The United States is pulling out of the Universal Postal Union.
For those who don't who or what the UPU is, here's a nice video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHhkNwE7pr8
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-postoffice-trump/update-1-trump-pulling-out-of-treaty-that-cut-rates-for-foreign-postal-deliveries-to-u-s-idUSL2N1WX0RG
The US is allowed to have its own delivery charges as part of the UPU process. But it can't discriminate. It can't have $0.10 for a British letter from New York harbor to Rochester NY, and $1.00 for a Chinese one.
It could easily raise delivery rates, but ultimately the Trump administration just HATES multinational bodies.0 -
Having more babies is surely the answer to the demographic problem but then again given we are already one of the most densely populated nations on the planet maybe not and we will just have to save more for our retirement0
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Sunil, you're late taking your pills again.Sunil_Prasannan said:REMAINERS - KNOW YOUR LIMITS!
An ordinary dinner party, the sort of occasion we all enjoy. The LEAVERs are exchanging witty stories. And look at the REMAINERs; aren’t they pretty? Look at the way they laugh, they’re delightful. But now the conversation turns to more serious matters.
LEAVER 1:
“I wonder if the Government should stay out of the EU Customs Union”
LEAVER 2:
“I think it should.”
LEAVER 1:
“Good. Then we’re all agreed.”
But oh dear, what’s this? One of the REMAINERs is about to embarrass us all…
REMAINER:
“I think the Government should stay in the Customs Union, so that the Pound can reach a level that would keep our exports competitive.”
The REMAINER has foolishly attempted to join the conversation with a wild and dangerous opinion of his own! What half-baked drivel! See how the LEAVERS look at him with utter contempt!
LEAVER 2:
“Alastair, we’re going home!!”
REMAINERS - KNOW YOUR LIMITS!
Look at the effect of education on a LEAVER and a REMAINER’s mind. Education passes into the mind of a LEAVER. See how the information is evenly and tidily stored.
Now see the same thing on a REMAINER. At first we see a similar result. But now look. Still at a reasonably low level of education his brain suddenly overloads. He can't take in complicated information. He becomes frantically and absurdly deranged.
Look at these venomous harridans. They went to university. Hard to believe they are all under 25. Yes, over-education leads to ugliness, premature aging and beard growth. And ranting on online political betting fora.
Now, let’s see the proper way.
LEAVER 1:
“Good. So we’re all agreed. We should stay out of the Customs Union.”
REMAINER:
“Oh, I don’t know anything about the Northern Ireland Backstop, I’m afraid, but I do love little kittens! They’re so soft, and furry.”
LEAVER 2:
“What a delightful thought, you dear, sweet, fragile little thing! I adore you, Alastair!”
REMAINERS - KNOW YOUR LIMITS. In thought, be plain and simple, and let your natural sweetness shine through!0 -
8th like the number of mutually exclusive and contradictory positions you'll take with absolute certainty if there's a single opinion poll showing them to be the case.HYUFD said:
4th like the number of centuries the Union may not reach if No Dealarcher101au said:First. Like No Deal.
Still not grasped the fact that unionists oppose this.0 -
Unless anyone wants a long and sweary rant in which Network Rail and Cross Country will be freely compared to Johnson, Trump, Corbyn, Farage, pineapple on pizza and The Last Jedi, do not ask me about railways for the next several weeks.0
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"We can diminish the demographic drag."
Go forth and multiply.0 -
Shout out to @AlastairMeeks for the best philatelic pun of the year on the previous thread.0
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Most Scottish Unionists oppose No Deal.Philip_Thompson said:
8th like the number of mutually exclusive and contradictory positions you'll take with absolute certainty if there's a single opinion poll showing them to be the case.HYUFD said:
4th like the number of centuries the Union may not reach if No Dealarcher101au said:First. Like No Deal.
Still not grasped the fact that unionists oppose this.
As do Northern Irish Unionists beyond DUP hardliners.
No Deal would be a gift to the SNP and Sinn Fein0 -
You're back! I was worried about you, after TM stated unambiguously in Parliament that she would never support another referendum - bit awkward given you have spend the last twenty four hours insisting that she will.HYUFD said:
4th like the number of centuries the Union may not reach if No Dealarcher101au said:First. Like No Deal.
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I thought we had perforated stamp puns.Mortimer said:Shout out to @AlastairMeeks for the best philatelic pun of the year on the previous thread.
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Eurasia was always at war with Eastasiaarcher101au said:
You're back! I was worried about you, after TM stated unambiguously in Parliament that she would never support another referendum - bit awkward given you have spend the last twenty four hours insisting that she will.HYUFD said:
4th like the number of centuries the Union may not reach if No Dealarcher101au said:First. Like No Deal.
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Opposing no deal and backing Barnier's deal or Chequers are two very different things. Ruth Davidson et al all oppose Barnier's deal which would be an absolute gift to Sinn Fein by permanently separating NI from GB.HYUFD said:
Most Scottish Unionists oppose No Deal.Philip_Thompson said:
8th like the number of mutually exclusive and contradictory positions you'll take with absolute certainty if there's a single opinion poll showing them to be the case.HYUFD said:
4th like the number of centuries the Union may not reach if No Dealarcher101au said:First. Like No Deal.
Still not grasped the fact that unionists oppose this.
As do Northern Irish Unionists beyond DUP hardliners.
No Deal would be a gift to the SNP and Sinn Fein
Which is why Barnier is backed by Sinn Fein and opposed by unionists which you then misread as meaning it's good for the union. If it was good for the union it'd be supported by the unionists and opposed by Sinn Fein for Pete's sake!0 -
Too silly.Sunil_Prasannan said:REMAINERS - KNOW YOUR LIMITS!
An ordinary dinner party, the sort of occasion we all enjoy. The LEAVERs are exchanging witty stories. And look at the REMAINERs; aren’t they pretty? Look at the way they laugh, they’re delightful. But now the conversation turns to more serious matters.
LEAVER 1:
“I wonder if the Government should stay out of the EU Customs Union”
LEAVER 2:
“I think it should.”
LEAVER 1:
“Good. Then we’re all agreed.”
But oh dear, what’s this? One of the REMAINERs is about to embarrass us all…
REMAINER:
“I think the Government should stay in the Customs Union, so that the Pound can reach a level that would keep our exports competitive.”
The REMAINER has foolishly attempted to join the conversation with a wild and dangerous opinion of his own! What half-baked drivel! See how the LEAVERS look at him with utter contempt!
LEAVER 2:
“Alastair, we’re going home!!”
REMAINERS - KNOW YOUR LIMITS!
Look at the effect of education on a LEAVER and a REMAINER’s mind. Education passes into the mind of a LEAVER. See how the information is evenly and tidily stored.
Now see the same thing on a REMAINER. At first we see a similar result. But now look. Still at a reasonably low level of education his brain suddenly overloads. He can't take in complicated information. He becomes frantically and absurdly deranged.
Look at these venomous harridans. They went to university. Hard to believe they are all under 25. Yes, over-education leads to ugliness, premature aging and beard growth. And ranting on online political betting fora.
Now, let’s see the proper way.
LEAVER 1:
“Good. So we’re all agreed. We should stay out of the Customs Union.”
REMAINER:
“Oh, I don’t know anything about the Northern Ireland Backstop, I’m afraid, but I do love little kittens! They’re so soft, and furry.”
LEAVER 2:
“What a delightful thought, you dear, sweet, fragile little thing! I adore you, Alastair!”
REMAINERS - KNOW YOUR LIMITS. In thought, be plain and simple, and let your natural sweetness shine through!0 -
"Here are five occasions on which the Prime Minister personally, or her staff, denied that there were plans for an election [in 2017]"archer101au said:
You're back! I was worried about you, after TM stated unambiguously in Parliament that she would never support another referendum - bit awkward given you have spend the last twenty four hours insisting that she will.HYUFD said:
4th like the number of centuries the Union may not reach if No Dealarcher101au said:First. Like No Deal.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/five-times-theresa-may-no-10-ruled-snap-general-election/
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Can confirm this compelling and scary viewing.
https://twitter.com/JamieFonzarelli/status/10526058285183713280 -
Yes well there is the day job.archer101au said:
You're back! I was worried about you, after TM stated unambiguously in Parliament that she would never support another referendum - bit awkward given you have spend the last twenty four hours insisting that she will.HYUFD said:
4th like the number of centuries the Union may not reach if No Dealarcher101au said:First. Like No Deal.
I said May would return to Parliament after No Deal and that remains the case despite your zeal to crash the economy and risk ending the Union with No Deal0 -
Enjoyed the video Robert
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You have a zeal to explicitly end the Union by agreeing a deal that puts a border through the Irish Sea and thus end the Union.HYUFD said:
Yes well there is the day job.archer101au said:
You're back! I was worried about you, after TM stated unambiguously in Parliament that she would never support another referendum - bit awkward given you have spend the last twenty four hours insisting that she will.HYUFD said:
4th like the number of centuries the Union may not reach if No Dealarcher101au said:First. Like No Deal.
I said May would return to Parliament after No Deal and that remains the case despite your zeal to crash the economy and risk ending the Union with No Deal0 -
All the Northern Ireland polls show most Northern Irish voters want NI to stay in the single market and customs union and a majority would back a United Ireland if that was not the case. The backstop to keep NI in the single market and customs union could be the only way of saving the UK especially when nationalists only get a majority for independence in Scottish polls with No DealPhilip_Thompson said:
Opposing no deal and backing Barnier's deal or Chequers are two very different things. Ruth Davidson et al all oppose Barnier's deal which would be an absolute gift to Sinn Fein by permanently separating NI from GB.HYUFD said:
Most Scottish Unionists oppose No Deal.Philip_Thompson said:
8th like the number of mutually exclusive and contradictory positions you'll take with absolute certainty if there's a single opinion poll showing them to be the case.HYUFD said:
4th like the number of centuries the Union may not reach if No Dealarcher101au said:First. Like No Deal.
Still not grasped the fact that unionists oppose this.
As do Northern Irish Unionists beyond DUP hardliners.
No Deal would be a gift to the SNP and Sinn Fein
Which is why Barnier is backed by Sinn Fein and opposed by unionists which you then misread as meaning it's good for the union. If it was good for the union it'd be supported by the unionists and opposed by Sinn Fein for Pete's sake!0 -
Another interesting (if concerning) video - thanks!
The Evening Osborne is also reporting on Geoffrey Cox holding No. 10's feet to the fire:
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/attorney-general-will-be-marking-no-10-s-homework-over-detail-on-brexit-backstop-a3964186.html0 -
Thanks Alanbrooke.Alanbrooke said:Enjoyed the video Robert
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No you have a zeal to ensure NI leaves the single market and customs union which really would end the Union.Philip_Thompson said:
You have a zeal to explicitly end the Union by agreeing a deal that puts a border through the Irish Sea and thus end the Union.HYUFD said:
Yes well there is the day job.archer101au said:
You're back! I was worried about you, after TM stated unambiguously in Parliament that she would never support another referendum - bit awkward given you have spend the last twenty four hours insisting that she will.HYUFD said:
4th like the number of centuries the Union may not reach if No Dealarcher101au said:First. Like No Deal.
I said May would return to Parliament after No Deal and that remains the case despite your zeal to crash the economy and risk ending the Union with No Deal
The whole UK would stay in the single market and customs union in the transition period anyway and quite likely until a technical solution is found to the Irish border0 -
Paddington made the Six O'Clock News with the obligatory "nationalise them" vox pop.0
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at the risk of getting lynched the other rmissing part of the jigsaw is to restrict free family planning to create larger families. Now that will be unpopular but it certainly will create more childrenrcs1000 said:
Thanks Alanbrooke.Alanbrooke said:Enjoyed the video Robert
why not sound out Mrs S with the idea tonight:-)0 -
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Much more serious matters (O/T to vent my feelings).Sunil_Prasannan said:REMAINERS - KNOW YOUR LIMITS!
An ordinary dinner party, the sort of occasion we all enjoy. The LEAVERs are exchanging witty stories. And look at the REMAINERs; aren’t they pretty? Look at the way they laugh, they’re delightful. But now the conversation turns to more serious matters.
(snipped)
I have had a complete break from politics for a few days, having been experiencing the joys of rail travel instead.
I have been really interested to discover that the new improved upgraded-to-overhead-power-at-vast-expense railway has turned out to be simply another way to really, really, really muck things up.
And apparently I got off very lightly compared to some, at that.
Good evening, everybody. I hope you have all enjoyed your week so far.
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Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling: http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/09/03/why-you-should-be-wary-of-hypothetical-polling/HYUFD said:
All the Northern Ireland polls show most Northern Irish voters want NI to stay in the single market and customs union and a majority would back a United Ireland if that was not the case. The backstop to keep NI in the single market and customs union could be the only way of saving the UK especially when nationalists only get a majority for independence in Scottish polls with No DealPhilip_Thompson said:
Opposing no deal and backing Barnier's deal or Chequers are two very different things. Ruth Davidson et al all oppose Barnier's deal which would be an absolute gift to Sinn Fein by permanently separating NI from GB.HYUFD said:
Most Scottish Unionists oppose No Deal.Philip_Thompson said:
8th like the number of mutually exclusive and contradictory positions you'll take with absolute certainty if there's a single opinion poll showing them to be the case.HYUFD said:
4th like the number of centuries the Union may not reach if No Dealarcher101au said:First. Like No Deal.
Still not grasped the fact that unionists oppose this.
As do Northern Irish Unionists beyond DUP hardliners.
No Deal would be a gift to the SNP and Sinn Fein
Which is why Barnier is backed by Sinn Fein and opposed by unionists which you then misread as meaning it's good for the union. If it was good for the union it'd be supported by the unionists and opposed by Sinn Fein for Pete's sake!
I'll trust the lifelong unionists and my own common sense that breaking up the country to save it is a stupid idea before I trust a hypothetical poll.0 -
No deal may not be unionists' preferred option, but they may well prefer no deal to an internal border with the rest of the UK. If unionists were happy with what the EU are proposing, it would not be as contentious as it is.HYUFD said:
Most Scottish Unionists oppose No Deal.Philip_Thompson said:
8th like the number of mutually exclusive and contradictory positions you'll take with absolute certainty if there's a single opinion poll showing them to be the case.HYUFD said:
4th like the number of centuries the Union may not reach if No Dealarcher101au said:First. Like No Deal.
Still not grasped the fact that unionists oppose this.
As do Northern Irish Unionists beyond DUP hardliners.
No Deal would be a gift to the SNP and Sinn Fein0 -
Ah Archie *you’re* back!archer101au said:
You're back! I was worried about you, after TM stated unambiguously in Parliament that she would never support another referendum - bit awkward given you have spend the last twenty four hours insisting that she will.HYUFD said:
4th like the number of centuries the Union may not reach if No Dealarcher101au said:First. Like No Deal.
Sh%t, showered and shaved I hope.
You seem to have misunderstood (wilfully?) the WTO position wrt national borders and MFN status.0 -
People often ignore statistics if they don't fit in with the zeitgeist/narrative of the times. For example, the worst year for London homicides in recent years was 2003 with 204. This year it's going to be about 120, despite the fact that the population of London is about a million higher now than it was in 2003. But I don't remember any panic about homicide in 2003 because attention was largely elsewhere.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_London#Murder0 -
“Dear Dudes...” seems a bit informalTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
You are telling me the PM is a liar?Barnesian said:
"Here are five occasions on which the Prime Minister personally, or her staff, denied that there were plans for an election [in 2017]"archer101au said:
You're back! I was worried about you, after TM stated unambiguously in Parliament that she would never support another referendum - bit awkward given you have spend the last twenty four hours insisting that she will.HYUFD said:
4th like the number of centuries the Union may not reach if No Dealarcher101au said:First. Like No Deal.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/five-times-theresa-may-no-10-ruled-snap-general-election/0 -
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OK, go ahead, happy to debate as always.TOPPING said:
Ah Archie *you’re* back!archer101au said:
You're back! I was worried about you, after TM stated unambiguously in Parliament that she would never support another referendum - bit awkward given you have spend the last twenty four hours insisting that she will.HYUFD said:
4th like the number of centuries the Union may not reach if No Dealarcher101au said:First. Like No Deal.
Sh%t, showered and shaved I hope.
You seem to have misunderstood (wilfully?) the WTO position wrt national borders and MFN status.
I think you are saying that if we have a 'soft border' in NI we have to have a soft border everywhere else? I don't believe this is the case.
The purpose of the soft border is simply a different way of enforcing the same rules. The WTO also have dispensations for these types of situations. So on this basis, I do not believe that the proposed ERG solution is in any way incompatible with WTO rules. And of course, the head of HMCE has already confirmed that in a no deal there would be no need to introduce checks at the border; presumably if it really was against WTO rules May would have him screaming it from the rooftops.0 -
It is blindingly obvious. Even arch Remainer Ruth Davidson won't fall for it.Philip_Thompson said:
Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling: http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/09/03/why-you-should-be-wary-of-hypothetical-polling/HYUFD said:
All the Northern Ireland polls show most Northern Irish voters want NI to stay in the single market and customs union and a majority would back a United Ireland if that was not the case. The backstop to keep NI in the single market and customs union could be the only way of saving the UK especially when nationalists only get a majority for independence in Scottish polls with No DealPhilip_Thompson said:
Opposing no deal and backing Barnier's deal or Chequers are two very different things. Ruth Davidson et al all oppose Barnier's deal which would be an absolute gift to Sinn Fein by permanently separating NI from GB.HYUFD said:
Most Scottish Unionists oppose No Deal.Philip_Thompson said:
8th like the number of mutually exclusive and contradictory positions you'll take with absolute certainty if there's a single opinion poll showing them to be the case.HYUFD said:
4th like the number of centuries the Union may not reach if No Dealarcher101au said:First. Like No Deal.
Still not grasped the fact that unionists oppose this.
As do Northern Irish Unionists beyond DUP hardliners.
No Deal would be a gift to the SNP and Sinn Fein
Which is why Barnier is backed by Sinn Fein and opposed by unionists which you then misread as meaning it's good for the union. If it was good for the union it'd be supported by the unionists and opposed by Sinn Fein for Pete's sake!
I'll trust the lifelong unionists and my own common sense that breaking up the country to save it is a stupid idea before I trust a hypothetical poll.0 -
Nice T-Shirt0
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It was the Spectator that was pointing that out. What do you think?archer101au said:
You are telling me the PM is a liar?Barnesian said:
"Here are five occasions on which the Prime Minister personally, or her staff, denied that there were plans for an election [in 2017]"archer101au said:
You're back! I was worried about you, after TM stated unambiguously in Parliament that she would never support another referendum - bit awkward given you have spend the last twenty four hours insisting that she will.HYUFD said:
4th like the number of centuries the Union may not reach if No Dealarcher101au said:First. Like No Deal.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/five-times-theresa-may-no-10-ruled-snap-general-election/0 -
He won't be the only one. William is getting closer to being right by the day.SeanT said:Dan Hannan calls for a 2nd referendum, and maybe Remaining, rather than staying in the CU
https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/10/daniel-hannan-the-proposed-brexit-terms-represent-a-deal-worse-than-either-staying-or-leaving.html0 -
He did not say anything of the sort. He said fighting the CU was worth the risk of a second referendum. He is correct in saying that all deal outcomes, including Norway, are less damaging to the UK than permanent membership of the CU.SeanT said:Dan Hannan calls for a 2nd referendum, and maybe Remaining, rather than staying in the CU
https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/10/daniel-hannan-the-proposed-brexit-terms-represent-a-deal-worse-than-either-staying-or-leaving.html0 -
I've always found small children make excellent contraceptives.Alanbrooke said:
at the risk of getting lynched the other rmissing part of the jigsaw is to restrict free family planning to create larger families. Now that will be unpopular but it certainly will create more childrenrcs1000 said:
Thanks Alanbrooke.Alanbrooke said:Enjoyed the video Robert
why not sound out Mrs S with the idea tonight:-)0 -
When I saw the t shirt I refused to publish the thread.kle4 said:Nice T-Shirt
Apart from Creep and Karma Police we all know Radiohead are massively overrated.0 -
I think all politicians lie, but May more than most.Barnesian said:
It was the Spectator that was pointing that out. What do you think?archer101au said:
You are telling me the PM is a liar?Barnesian said:
"Here are five occasions on which the Prime Minister personally, or her staff, denied that there were plans for an election [in 2017]"archer101au said:
You're back! I was worried about you, after TM stated unambiguously in Parliament that she would never support another referendum - bit awkward given you have spend the last twenty four hours insisting that she will.HYUFD said:
4th like the number of centuries the Union may not reach if No Dealarcher101au said:First. Like No Deal.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/five-times-theresa-may-no-10-ruled-snap-general-election/
But there are 'rules' about lying. Everyone expects a PM to lie about the timing of an election.
Promising over and over that you will implement Brexit and will not call a second referendum and then reversing is not a survivable lie. And, as I keep trying to explain to HYUFD, without the PMs support Parliament cannot pass any legislation in relation to Brexit.0 -
Yes, that's why it's a nice shirtTheScreamingEagles said:
When I saw the t shirt I refused to publish the thread.kle4 said:Nice T-Shirt
Apart from Creep and Karma Police we all know Radiohead are massively overrated.
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Another piece in HYUFD's pie crumbles. The 'meaningful vote' agreed by the Government was quite clearly specified as a 'neutral motion' which means that it should not be subject to amendment. It was not a promise to allow the HoC a whole series of votes on whatever they want. It was a straight up and down vote on a deal.
If there is no deal, the Government has promised to make a statement on what they intend to do about it.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
"After a year of #MeToo, American opinion has shifted against victims
Survey respondents have become more sceptical about sexual harassment"
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/10/15/after-a-year-of-metoo-american-opinion-has-shifted-against-victims0 -
Matthew D'Ancona 'The more chaotic Brexit becomes, the more I back calls for a People's Vote'
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/the-more-chaotic-brexit-becomes-the-more-i-back-calls-for-a-people-s-vote-a3964081.html0 -
Hannan is a light weight who is all over the place. He doesn't have a clue what is in the national interest.archer101au said:
He did not say anything of the sort. He said fighting the CU was worth the risk of a second referendum. He is correct in saying that all deal outcomes, including Norway, are less damaging to the UK than permanent membership of the CU.SeanT said:Dan Hannan calls for a 2nd referendum, and maybe Remaining, rather than staying in the CU
https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/10/daniel-hannan-the-proposed-brexit-terms-represent-a-deal-worse-than-either-staying-or-leaving.html
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On first reflection that doesn't seen entirely unreasonable if that is indeed what Raab is saying, given that Parliament has had heavy amendments considered already and this would presumably be on an endstate (to this period at least) agreed in principle with the EU, and again on first reflection I'm not sure how much is to be gained on amendments. If people want brand new things, and don't fear no deal if that is not possible, then they can vote down what is before them. But I am open to being persuaded, again if that is what Raab means.archer101au said:Another piece in HYUFD's pie crumbles. The 'meaningful vote' agreed by the Government was quite clearly specified as a 'neutral motion' which means that it should not be subject to amendment. It was not a promise to allow the HoC a whole series of votes on whatever they want. It was a straight up and down vote on a deal.
If there is no deal, the Government has promised to make a statement on what they intend to do about it.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Well if you wish to gamble with the Union on a hunch that is up to you, we do know Scotland and Northern Ireland voted Remain which is evidence enough they do not want ultra hard No Deal BrexitPhilip_Thompson said:
Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling: http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/09/03/why-you-should-be-wary-of-hypothetical-polling/HYUFD said:
All the Northern Ireland polls show most Northern Irish voters want NI to stay in the single market and customs union and a majority would back a United Ireland if that was not the case. The backstop to keep NI in the single market and customs union could be the only way of saving the UK especially when nationalists only get a majority for independence in Scottish polls with No DealPhilip_Thompson said:
Opposing no deal and backing Barnier's deal or Chequers are two very different things. Ruth Davidson et al all oppose Barnier's deal which would be an absolute gift to Sinn Fein by permanently separating NI from GB.HYUFD said:
Most Scottish Unionists oppose No Deal.Philip_Thompson said:
8th like the number of mutually exclusive and contradictory positions you'll take with absolute certainty if there's a single opinion poll showing them to be the case.HYUFD said:
4th like the number of centuries the Union may not reach if No Dealarcher101au said:First. Like No Deal.
Still not grasped the fact that unionists oppose this.
As do Northern Irish Unionists beyond DUP hardliners.
No Deal would be a gift to the SNP and Sinn Fein
Which is why Barnier is backed by Sinn Fein and opposed by unionists which you then misread as meaning it's good for the union. If it was good for the union it'd be supported by the unionists and opposed by Sinn Fein for Pete's sake!
I'll trust the lifelong unionists and my own common sense that breaking up the country to save it is a stupid idea before I trust a hypothetical poll.0 -
They will have a full border with the UK if No Deal leads to an independent Scotland and a full Irish Sea border if it leads to a United IrelandSean_F said:
No deal may not be unionists' preferred option, but they may well prefer no deal to an internal border with the rest of the UK. If unionists were happy with what the EU are proposing, it would not be as contentious as it is.HYUFD said:
Most Scottish Unionists oppose No Deal.Philip_Thompson said:
8th like the number of mutually exclusive and contradictory positions you'll take with absolute certainty if there's a single opinion poll showing them to be the case.HYUFD said:
4th like the number of centuries the Union may not reach if No Dealarcher101au said:First. Like No Deal.
Still not grasped the fact that unionists oppose this.
As do Northern Irish Unionists beyond DUP hardliners.
No Deal would be a gift to the SNP and Sinn Fein0 -
Leading conservative columnist Matthew D'Ancona has backed a second referendum in the Evening Standard tooSeanT said:Dan Hannan calls for a 2nd referendum, and maybe Remaining, rather than staying in the CU
https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/10/daniel-hannan-the-proposed-brexit-terms-represent-a-deal-worse-than-either-staying-or-leaving.html0 -
Some months ago I booked a Club Med skiing holiday in France for myself, my children and my grandchildren. We depart on 8th April 2019. Hmm.CarlottaVance said:There go those skiing holidays....
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/10526101335268147260 -
The more the likes of Archer and co are rushing headlong towards No Deal Brexit with glee without a care for the economy or the Union the more the sentiment for a second EU referendum will grow.kle4 said:
He won't be the only one. William is getting closer to being right by the day.SeanT said:Dan Hannan calls for a 2nd referendum, and maybe Remaining, rather than staying in the CU
https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/10/daniel-hannan-the-proposed-brexit-terms-represent-a-deal-worse-than-either-staying-or-leaving.html
52% Leave 48% Remain is not a big enough mandate for ultra hard take no prisoners Brexit0 -
Well of course they should not recess. If ever there was a time we must ask our parliamentarians to put in even longer and harder hours at parliament, it is now. That is not to denigrate constituency work or that people do need breaks, and that it might demand a lot of them, but each of them have a small share in disposing of the affairs of this kingdom, and they have to step up at such times.CarlottaVance said:There go those skiing holidays....
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/10526101335268147260 -
Q
If he's the most intellectually acute it doesn't say much for the rest of 'em.SeanT said:
Semantics. He thinks a 2nd referendum is better than TMay's deal. He also admits that REMAINING (presumably after that vote) is better than TMay's deal.archer101au said:
He did not say anything of the sort. He said fighting the CU was worth the risk of a second referendum. He is correct in saying that all deal outcomes, including Norway, are less damaging to the UK than permanent membership of the CU.SeanT said:Dan Hannan calls for a 2nd referendum, and maybe Remaining, rather than staying in the CU
https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/10/daniel-hannan-the-proposed-brexit-terms-represent-a-deal-worse-than-either-staying-or-leaving.html
And yes he also says he prefers EFTA or Canada to TMay's deal.
And this is fom Dan Hannan? It is a significant concession by arguably the most intellectually acute of Brexiteer politicians.0 -
Its a low bar.....Recidivist said:Q
If he's the most intellectually acute it doesn't say much for the rest of 'em.SeanT said:
Semantics. He thinks a 2nd referendum is better than TMay's deal. He also admits that REMAINING (presumably after that vote) is better than TMay's deal.archer101au said:
He did not say anything of the sort. He said fighting the CU was worth the risk of a second referendum. He is correct in saying that all deal outcomes, including Norway, are less damaging to the UK than permanent membership of the CU.SeanT said:Dan Hannan calls for a 2nd referendum, and maybe Remaining, rather than staying in the CU
https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/10/daniel-hannan-the-proposed-brexit-terms-represent-a-deal-worse-than-either-staying-or-leaving.html
And yes he also says he prefers EFTA or Canada to TMay's deal.
And this is fom Dan Hannan? It is a significant concession by arguably the most intellectually acute of Brexiteer politicians.0 -
The PM does not really give a toss about Brexit, she backed Remain after all.archer101au said:
I think all politicians lie, but May more than most.Barnesian said:
It was the Spectator that was pointing that out. What do you think?archer101au said:
You are telling me the PM is a liar?Barnesian said:
"Here are five occasions on which the Prime Minister personally, or her staff, denied that there were plans for an election [in 2017]"archer101au said:
You're back! I was worried about you, after TM stated unambiguously in Parliament that she would never support another referendum - bit awkward given you have spend the last twenty four hours insisting that she will.HYUFD said:
4th like the number of centuries the Union may not reach if No Dealarcher101au said:First. Like No Deal.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/five-times-theresa-may-no-10-ruled-snap-general-election/
But there are 'rules' about lying. Everyone expects a PM to lie about the timing of an election.
Promising over and over that you will implement Brexit and will not call a second referendum and then reversing is not a survivable lie. And, as I keep trying to explain to HYUFD, without the PMs support Parliament cannot pass any legislation in relation to Brexit.
The ERG do not have the numbers to replace her0 -
Still, I see no sign that unionists in either Scotland or Northern Ireland favour agreeing to the Northern Ireland backstop. Very much the reverse in fact.HYUFD said:
They will have a full border with the UK if No Deal leads to an independent Scotland and a full Irish Sea border if it leads to a United IrelandSean_F said:
No deal may not be unionists' preferred option, but they may well prefer no deal to an internal border with the rest of the UK. If unionists were happy with what the EU are proposing, it would not be as contentious as it is.HYUFD said:
Most Scottish Unionists oppose No Deal.Philip_Thompson said:
8th like the number of mutually exclusive and contradictory positions you'll take with absolute certainty if there's a single opinion poll showing them to be the case.HYUFD said:
4th like the number of centuries the Union may not reach if No Dealarcher101au said:First. Like No Deal.
Still not grasped the fact that unionists oppose this.
As do Northern Irish Unionists beyond DUP hardliners.
No Deal would be a gift to the SNP and Sinn Fein0 -
If I understand Barnier's scheme correctly, for the first time I can see a pathway to a semi workable Brexit. So you have transition period no 1, where you negotiate a backstop workaround. Nominally this is a "customs arrangement" and undefined harmonisation of rules in Northern Ireland and Great Britain that are both the same and different as each other so there is no need for a hard border either in Ireland or the Irish Sea. This is of course strictly time limited. Let's call this arrangement SM+CU for short. We give ourselves an extra year in transition 1 to negotiate the arrangement for transition no 2. In 2022 we move into transition no 2 where we negotiate the final arrangement. By this time the "technical solutions" to the border problem will have revealed themselves and we can begin work on Canada, which will be absolutely super. This should take us to 2032 or thereabouts. We will have been discussing Brexit for fifteen years and the grass will have grown to triffid proportionsRichard_Nabavi said:Hard to disagree with this:
https://twitter.com/DianeDoddsMEP/status/10526047081652101120 -
You're a lot braver than me doing videos.
Having said that, I'm not sure you have accurately diagnosed the problem or the cure. It is not so much that we are living longer. It is that quite a lot of those who are living longer expect not to have to work much further into their old age than their parents, even if they are capable of doing so. Giving wealthy fit older people financial incentives not to work is nuts.
Rather than worrying about longevity we should be worrying about morbidity. Healthy old people can work. Unhealthy people of any age can't work. The biggest problem is that by and large the unhealthy older people are the ones who have the financial motivation to keep working. We need to incentivise richer oldies to stay in the workplace longer.
There seem to be quite a few fruit-picking jobs to go round, and if pb is anything to go by the oldies have plenty of experience in that line of work.0 -
HYUFD said:
The more the likes of Archer and co are rushing headlong towards No Deal Brexit with glee without a care for the economy or the Union the more the sentiment for a second EU referendum will grow.kle4 said:
He won't be the only one. William is getting closer to being right by the day.SeanT said:Dan Hannan calls for a 2nd referendum, and maybe Remaining, rather than staying in the CU
https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/10/daniel-hannan-the-proposed-brexit-terms-represent-a-deal-worse-than-either-staying-or-leaving.html
52% Leave 48% Remain is not a big enough mandate for ultra hard take no prisoners Brexit
We're all just "people on the internet" - apart from those who have canvassed door to door I doubt any of us has shifted a single vote other than our own.0 -
Not at all. That is based on there being a Deal needing quick approval, if No Deal as May confirmed earlier in the week she will go back to Parliamentarcher101au said:Another piece in HYUFD's pie crumbles. The 'meaningful vote' agreed by the Government was quite clearly specified as a 'neutral motion' which means that it should not be subject to amendment. It was not a promise to allow the HoC a whole series of votes on whatever they want. It was a straight up and down vote on a deal.
If there is no deal, the Government has promised to make a statement on what they intend to do about it.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Solid entertainmentFF43 said:
If I understand Barnier's scheme correctly, for the first time I can see a pathway to a semi workable Brexit. So you have transition period no 1, where you negotiate a backstop workaround. Nominally this is a "customs arrangement" and undefined harmonisation of rules in Northern Ireland and Great Britain that are both the same and different as each other so there is no need for a hard border either in Ireland or the Irish Sea. This is of course strictly time limited. Let's call this arrangement SM+CU for short. We give ourselves an extra year in transition 1 to negotiate the arrangement for transition no 2. In 2022 we move into transition no 2 where we negotiate the final arrangement. By this time the "technical solutions" to the border problem will have revealed themselves and we can begin work on Canada, which will be absolutely super. This should take us to 2032 or thereabouts. We will have been discussing Brexit for fifteen years and the grass will have grown to triffid proportionsRichard_Nabavi said:Hard to disagree with this:
https://twitter.com/DianeDoddsMEP/status/10526047081652101120 -
Cherries maybe..AlastairMeeks said:You're a lot braver than me doing videos.
Having said that, I'm not sure you have accurately diagnosed the problem or the cure. It is not so much that we are living longer. It is that quite a lot of those who are living longer expect not to have to work much further into their old age than their parents, even if they are capable of doing so. Giving wealthy fit older people financial incentives not to work is nuts.
Rather than worrying about longevity we should be worrying about morbidity. Healthy old people can work. Unhealthy people of any age can't work. The biggest problem is that by and large the unhealthy older people are the ones who have the financial motivation to keep working. We need to incentivise richer oldies to stay in the workplace longer.
There seem to be quite a few fruit-picking jobs to go round, and if pb is anything to go by the oldies have plenty of experience in that line of work.0 -
A lot of older people are working longer though.. My own parents are working their seventies.AlastairMeeks said:You're a lot braver than me doing videos.
Having said that, I'm not sure you have accurately diagnosed the problem or the cure. It is not so much that we are living longer. It is that quite a lot of those who are living longer expect not to have to work much further into their old age than their parents, even if they are capable of doing so. Giving wealthy fit older people financial incentives not to work is nuts.
Rather than worrying about longevity we should be worrying about morbidity. Healthy old people can work. Unhealthy people of any age can't work. The biggest problem is that by and large the unhealthy older people are the ones who have the financial motivation to keep working. We need to incentivise richer oldies to stay in the workplace longer.
There seem to be quite a few fruit-picking jobs to go round, and if pb is anything to go by the oldies have plenty of experience in that line of work.0 -
The suggestion that the february recess may be cancelled leads me more and more to the view a second referendum is on it's way.
If we look at the politics, the DUP, Nicola Sturgeon, Ruth Davidson and others including labour seem to be leading a move towards staying in the customs union and the single market and if that becomes unlikely, no deal becomes almost default.
A second referendum with tacit support from those mentioned above, plus a majority in the HOC and HOL becomes a real prospect.
TM did say she would bring the matter to the HOC for their decision and if that happens, and the HOC, HOL and the country look in favour, a second referendum it will be.
And in those circumstances the hard brexiteers will have lost due to their obsession with only their way and a poorly presented case. The plummeting popularity of Boris and JRM should be a warning. The public are losing faith in the hard brexit WTO way, if they had any in the first place0 -
My own dad did. Which is why Robert's video isn't hitting the exact nature of the problem. It's not that we're getting older, it's about our expectations of and ability to work into older age. The problem is partly being fixed by oldies working, but not completely.Sean_F said:
A lot of older people are working longer though.. My own parents are working their seventies.AlastairMeeks said:You're a lot braver than me doing videos.
Having said that, I'm not sure you have accurately diagnosed the problem or the cure. It is not so much that we are living longer. It is that quite a lot of those who are living longer expect not to have to work much further into their old age than their parents, even if they are capable of doing so. Giving wealthy fit older people financial incentives not to work is nuts.
Rather than worrying about longevity we should be worrying about morbidity. Healthy old people can work. Unhealthy people of any age can't work. The biggest problem is that by and large the unhealthy older people are the ones who have the financial motivation to keep working. We need to incentivise richer oldies to stay in the workplace longer.
There seem to be quite a few fruit-picking jobs to go round, and if pb is anything to go by the oldies have plenty of experience in that line of work.0 -
A quick reminder of his quality for fans of dans planing.
https://mobile.twitter.com/snigskitchen/status/1051905864502845445/photo/10 -
President Trump says he is not to blame if Republicans lose the House
http://time.com/5426651/trump-gop-blame-lose-house-congress/0 -
On the plus side, in the event of no deal they will at least be snowed under...CarlottaVance said:There go those skiing holidays....
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/10526101335268147260 -
It is who they reflect that is keyCarlottaVance said:HYUFD said:
The more the likes of Archer and co are rushing headlong towards No Deal Brexit with glee without a care for the economy or the Union the more the sentiment for a second EU referendum will grow.kle4 said:
He won't be the only one. William is getting closer to being right by the day.SeanT said:Dan Hannan calls for a 2nd referendum, and maybe Remaining, rather than staying in the CU
https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/10/daniel-hannan-the-proposed-brexit-terms-represent-a-deal-worse-than-either-staying-or-leaving.html
52% Leave 48% Remain is not a big enough mandate for ultra hard take no prisoners Brexit
We're all just "people on the internet" - apart from those who have canvassed door to door I doubt any of us has shifted a single vote other than our own.0 -
As long as GB stays in the single market and customs union too they willSean_F said:
Still, I see no sign that unionists in either Scotland or Northern Ireland favour agreeing to the Northern Ireland backstop. Very much the reverse in fact.HYUFD said:
They will have a full border with the UK if No Deal leads to an independent Scotland and a full Irish Sea border if it leads to a United IrelandSean_F said:
No deal may not be unionists' preferred option, but they may well prefer no deal to an internal border with the rest of the UK. If unionists were happy with what the EU are proposing, it would not be as contentious as it is.HYUFD said:
Most Scottish Unionists oppose No Deal.Philip_Thompson said:
8th like the number of mutually exclusive and contradictory positions you'll take with absolute certainty if there's a single opinion poll showing them to be the case.HYUFD said:
4th like the number of centuries the Union may not reach if No Dealarcher101au said:First. Like No Deal.
Still not grasped the fact that unionists oppose this.
As do Northern Irish Unionists beyond DUP hardliners.
No Deal would be a gift to the SNP and Sinn Fein0 -
They reflect no one but themselves. And while I'm sure they're wonderful people, I very much doubt anything they, or any of us have written below the line has shifted as much as a single vote.HYUFD said:
It is who they reflect that is keyCarlottaVance said:HYUFD said:
The more the likes of Archer and co are rushing headlong towards No Deal Brexit with glee without a care for the economy or the Union the more the sentiment for a second EU referendum will grow.kle4 said:
He won't be the only one. William is getting closer to being right by the day.SeanT said:Dan Hannan calls for a 2nd referendum, and maybe Remaining, rather than staying in the CU
https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/10/daniel-hannan-the-proposed-brexit-terms-represent-a-deal-worse-than-either-staying-or-leaving.html
52% Leave 48% Remain is not a big enough mandate for ultra hard take no prisoners Brexit
We're all just "people on the internet" - apart from those who have canvassed door to door I doubt any of us has shifted a single vote other than our own.
0 -
By then Chuka Umunna may be PM and we will be back in the single market and customs union anywayFF43 said:
If I understand Barnier's scheme correctly, for the first time I can see a pathway to a semi workable Brexit. So you have transition period no 1, where you negotiate a backstop workaround. Nominally this is a "customs arrangement" and undefined harmonisation of rules in Northern Ireland and Great Britain that are both the same and different as each other so there is no need for a hard border either in Ireland or the Irish Sea. This is of course strictly time limited. Let's call this arrangement SM+CU for short. We give ourselves an extra year in transition 1 to negotiate the arrangement for transition no 2. In 2022 we move into transition no 2 where we negotiate the final arrangement. By this time the "technical solutions" to the border problem will have revealed themselves and we can begin work on Canada, which will be absolutely super. This should take us to 2032 or thereabouts. We will have been discussing Brexit for fifteen years and the grass will have grown to triffid proportionsRichard_Nabavi said:Hard to disagree with this:
https://twitter.com/DianeDoddsMEP/status/10526047081652101120 -
An inter-generational workplace with people aged 17-70 raises both opportunities and challenges.Sean_F said:
A lot of older people are working longer though.. My own parents are working their seventies.
I do think if someone beyond retirement age returns to work they should pay NI like all other workers.
I'd also like to think people won't be cajoled in any way to work beyond retirement and should be encouraged to take a "work break" because, to be blunt, there's more to life than work and there are people as valuable in society as those who are "hard working" such as full time carers who don't get much of a life or much of a deal at present.0 -
OK well he says nothing like that but if it makes you feel better, go for it.SeanT said:
Semantics. He thinks a 2nd referendum is better than TMay's deal. He also admits that REMAINING (presumably after that vote) is better than TMay's deal.archer101au said:
He did not say anything of the sort. He said fighting the CU was worth the risk of a second referendum. He is correct in saying that all deal outcomes, including Norway, are less damaging to the UK than permanent membership of the CU.SeanT said:Dan Hannan calls for a 2nd referendum, and maybe Remaining, rather than staying in the CU
https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/10/daniel-hannan-the-proposed-brexit-terms-represent-a-deal-worse-than-either-staying-or-leaving.html
And yes he also says he prefers EFTA or Canada to TMay's deal.
And this is fom Dan Hannan? It is a significant concession by arguably the most intellectually acute of Brexiteer politicians.0 -
Boom boom!Theuniondivvie said:
Cherries maybe..AlastairMeeks said:You're a lot braver than me doing videos.
Having said that, I'm not sure you have accurately diagnosed the problem or the cure. It is not so much that we are living longer. It is that quite a lot of those who are living longer expect not to have to work much further into their old age than their parents, even if they are capable of doing so. Giving wealthy fit older people financial incentives not to work is nuts.
Rather than worrying about longevity we should be worrying about morbidity. Healthy old people can work. Unhealthy people of any age can't work. The biggest problem is that by and large the unhealthy older people are the ones who have the financial motivation to keep working. We need to incentivise richer oldies to stay in the workplace longer.
There seem to be quite a few fruit-picking jobs to go round, and if pb is anything to go by the oldies have plenty of experience in that line of work.0 -
As is my dad. But I address this in the video:Sean_F said:
A lot of older people are working longer though.. My own parents are working their seventies.AlastairMeeks said:You're a lot braver than me doing videos.
Having said that, I'm not sure you have accurately diagnosed the problem or the cure. It is not so much that we are living longer. It is that quite a lot of those who are living longer expect not to have to work much further into their old age than their parents, even if they are capable of doing so. Giving wealthy fit older people financial incentives not to work is nuts.
Rather than worrying about longevity we should be worrying about morbidity. Healthy old people can work. Unhealthy people of any age can't work. The biggest problem is that by and large the unhealthy older people are the ones who have the financial motivation to keep working. We need to incentivise richer oldies to stay in the workplace longer.
There seem to be quite a few fruit-picking jobs to go round, and if pb is anything to go by the oldies have plenty of experience in that line of work.
Economic output for those working peaks at about 50, and then you see both output and participation rates drop.
Working later helps, but is no silver bullet.0 -
Staying in the CU has been defeated FIVE SEPARATE TIMES in the HoC.Big_G_NorthWales said:The suggestion that the february recess may be cancelled leads me more and more to the view a second referendum is on it's way.
If we look at the politics, the DUP, Nicola Sturgeon, Ruth Davidson and others including labour seem to be leading a move towards staying in the customs union and the single market and if that becomes unlikely, no deal becomes almost default.
A second referendum with tacit support from those mentioned above, plus a majority in the HOC and HOL becomes a real prospect.
TM did say she would bring the matter to the HOC for their decision and if that happens, and the HOC, HOL and the country look in favour, a second referendum it will be.
And in those circumstances the hard brexiteers will have lost due to their obsession with only their way and a poorly presented case. The plummeting popularity of Boris and JRM should be a warning. The public are losing faith in the hard brexit WTO way, if they had any in the first place
I know you really like the sound of it, Big G, but it isn’t going to happen. There aren’t votes for it in the House.0 -
How could that be true, the EU is the most noble, glorious and civilized entity in the world, and merely being a part of its club elevates all its members as a result, how could they do less than we on something?CarlottaVance said:0 -
Well even I will be bored by the topic and won't be around in fifteen years on this site to say, I told you so.. I will nevertheless be right, not because of any great powers of prediction, but because the circle needs to be squared, which in 1882 was proven to be mathematically impossible.Sean_F said:
Solid entertainmentFF43 said:
If I understand Barnier's scheme correctly, for the first time I can see a pathway to a semi workable Brexit. So you have transition period no 1, where you negotiate a backstop workaround. Nominally this is a "customs arrangement" and undefined harmonisation of rules in Northern Ireland and Great Britain that are both the same and different as each other so there is no need for a hard border either in Ireland or the Irish Sea. This is of course strictly time limited. Let's call this arrangement SM+CU for short. We give ourselves an extra year in transition 1 to negotiate the arrangement for transition no 2. In 2022 we move into transition no 2 where we negotiate the final arrangement. By this time the "technical solutions" to the border problem will have revealed themselves and we can begin work on Canada, which will be absolutely super. This should take us to 2032 or thereabouts. We will have been discussing Brexit for fifteen years and the grass will have grown to triffid proportionsRichard_Nabavi said:Hard to disagree with this:
https://twitter.com/DianeDoddsMEP/status/10526047081652101120 -
TBF, it says the French, not the EU.kle4 said:
How could that be true, the EU is the most noble, glorious and civilized entity in the world, and merely being a part of its club elevates all its members as a result, how could they do less than we on something?CarlottaVance said:
And I still say if we had done what the French did, and ignored every rule we didn't like, this country would love the EU to death and it would be a great success.0 -
Howls of outrage in 3, 2, 1, ....kle4 said:
How could that be true, the EU is the most noble, glorious and civilized entity in the world, and merely being a part of its club elevates all its members as a result, how could they do less than we on something?CarlottaVance said:0 -
Obviously we disagree on the outcome. But the point about this being due to the hard Brexiteers is clearly false. The talks are stuck on the backstop, not the trade deal. And as has become clear in the last week, ANY type of deal with the EU cannot be done now, under A50; will have to be approved in the form of a mixed competency trade deal, and therefore will require the backstop which almost everyone, including Ruth Davidson, says is unacceptable. There is no evidence that Tory Remainers support the backstop - they all agreed with May when she said she could never agree to it.Big_G_NorthWales said:The suggestion that the february recess may be cancelled leads me more and more to the view a second referendum is on it's way.
If we look at the politics, the DUP, Nicola Sturgeon, Ruth Davidson and others including labour seem to be leading a move towards staying in the customs union and the single market and if that becomes unlikely, no deal becomes almost default.
A second referendum with tacit support from those mentioned above, plus a majority in the HOC and HOL becomes a real prospect.
TM did say she would bring the matter to the HOC for their decision and if that happens, and the HOC, HOL and the country look in favour, a second referendum it will be.
And in those circumstances the hard brexiteers will have lost due to their obsession with only their way and a poorly presented case. The plummeting popularity of Boris and JRM should be a warning. The public are losing faith in the hard brexit WTO way, if they had any in the first place
Do you believe there is a majority for the NI backstop with Tory MPs? If not, how does a 'softer' Brexit make any difference to the current problem?0 -
I’m looking forward to the howls from the Remainers who condemned us for not unilaterally protecting EU citizen’s rights.kle4 said:
How could that be true, the EU is the most noble, glorious and civilized entity in the world, and merely being a part of its club elevates all its members as a result, how could they do less than we on something?CarlottaVance said:
And the apologies to those of us who said acting unilaterally it would be turned into a hostage to fortune.0 -
Which is why I made a point to note that being a part of the EU is supposed to elevate its members, we've seen Roger cry about how we are already diminished enough times about it, as though holding or not holding EU membership immediately makes a nation barbaric and crude.ydoethur said:
TBF, it says the French, not the EU.kle4 said:
How could that be true, the EU is the most noble, glorious and civilized entity in the world, and merely being a part of its club elevates all its members as a result, how could they do less than we on something?CarlottaVance said:
0 -
Yes. That does not mean he advocates a second referendum, or that we should remain. He is saying we should not do May's deal.SeanT said:
Er, he says it explicitly herearcher101au said:
OK well he says nothing like that but if it makes you feel better, go for it.SeanT said:
Semantics. He thinks a 2nd referendum is better than TMay's deal. He also admits that REMAINING (presumably after that vote) is better than TMay's deal.archer101au said:
He did not say anything of the sort. He said fighting the CU was worth the risk of a second referendum. He is correct in saying that all deal outcomes, including Norway, are less damaging to the UK than permanent membership of the CU.SeanT said:Dan Hannan calls for a 2nd referendum, and maybe Remaining, rather than staying in the CU
https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/10/daniel-hannan-the-proposed-brexit-terms-represent-a-deal-worse-than-either-staying-or-leaving.html
And yes he also says he prefers EFTA or Canada to TMay's deal.
And this is fom Dan Hannan? It is a significant concession by arguably the most intellectually acute of Brexiteer politicians.
"The proposed exit terms represent a deal worse than either STAYING or leaving."
and also implies it here
"frankly, any outcome – no deal, Norway, Canada, even the risk of a second referendum – would be better than what is currently on the table"
https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/10/daniel-hannan-the-proposed-brexit-terms-represent-a-deal-worse-than-either-staying-or-leaving.html0
