politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: What now for Scotland?

System · October 2018

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: What now for Scotland?

On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by pollster Mark Diffley to deep dive on the latest round of polls in Scotland.

Read the full story here

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2018

First

Stereotomy · October 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting TM to get cabinet to accept that the UK to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

Link?

kle4 · October 2018

Jonathan said:
Well something has to break, to break this deadlock. The EU’s red lines, the UKs border, the Tory party, the govt, the DUP, TM’s premiership. Something has to give. Just a question of what.

Quite so. I had thought TM's premiership would have first, allowing other options to be at least attempted, but no. So now I am thinking it is the UKs border - yes, the government is dependent on the DUP, but it's easier to counter the, with Labour rebels on this issue than mass Tory rebellion.

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting TM to get cabinet to accept that the UK to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

Another proposal that won't have a majority in parliament.

Pulpstar · October 2018

Where did my post go

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2018

Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it

viewcode · October 2018

Pulpstar said:
Where did my post go

https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/6860/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-new-pb-polling-matters-podcast-what-now-for-scotland#latest

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2018

Stereotomy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting TM to get cabinet to accept that the UK to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed
Link?

Front page of telegraph

HYUFD · October 2018

Indyref2 could happen by next summer if we Leave the EU with No Deal and on the latest polls Yes would have a 50% chance of winning it.

Otherwise if we get a transition period and withdrawal agreement or and move towards a FTA or stay in the single market or if Remain wins an EU ref2 and if Unionist parties win a majority at Holyrood in 2021 as polls suggest is possible indyref2 could be a decade or more away

viewcode · October 2018

Steve Richards, lecture, 2018-02-12. Possibly prescient, but worth listening to regardless.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D--lS69dk0k

GIN1138 · October 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it

Will Leadsom, Raab and Mourdant walk out?

HYUFD · October 2018

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:
Well something has to break, to break this deadlock. The EU’s red lines, the UKs border, the Tory party, the govt, the DUP, TM’s premiership. Something has to give. Just a question of what.
Quite so. I had thought TM's premiership would have first, allowing other options to be at least attempted, but no. So now I am thinking it is the UKs border - yes, the government is dependent on the DUP, but it's easier to counter the, with Labour rebels on this issue than mass Tory rebellion.
Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting TM to get cabinet to accept that the UK to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed
Another proposal that won't have a majority in parliament.

It will have a majority in Parliament as it virtually matches Labour's policy

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2018

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
Will Leadsom, Raab and Mourdant walk out?

We will have to see

Stereotomy · October 2018

Why exactly are the DUP opposed to the whole-UK CU option?

archer101au · October 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it

The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.

kle4 · October 2018

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:
Well something has to break, to break this deadlock. The EU’s red lines, the UKs border, the Tory party, the govt, the DUP, TM’s premiership. Something has to give. Just a question of what.
Quite so. I had thought TM's premiership would have first, allowing other options to be at least attempted, but no. So now I am thinking it is the UKs border - yes, the government is dependent on the DUP, but it's easier to counter the, with Labour rebels on this issue than mass Tory rebellion.
Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting TM to get cabinet to accept that the UK to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed
Another proposal that won't have a majority in parliament.
It will have a majority in Parliament as it virtually matches Labour's policy

Why would that stop them voting against? Their primary goal at the moment is to provoke a GE somehow, not help get a Brexit agreement.

archer101au · October 2018

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
Will Leadsom, Raab and Mourdant walk out?

No, unfortunately. But if Raab did, he would be PM by Christmas.

kle4 · October 2018

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.

Unless parliament votes to have an early GE, the country won't get a chance to accept it or not until it is long done. Indeed, were this done I am sure the Tory poll ratings will plunge, meaning they will limp on with constant rebellions but still trying to stay in office for as long as possible to give themselves at least a slither of a chance to recover.

HYUFD · October 2018

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:
Well something has to break, to break this deadlock. The EU’s red lines, the UKs border, the Tory party, the govt, the DUP, TM’s premiership. Something has to give. Just a question of what.
Quite so. I had thought TM's premiership would have first, allowing other options to be at least attempted, but no. So now I am thinking it is the UKs border - yes, the government is dependent on the DUP, but it's easier to counter the, with Labour rebels on this issue than mass Tory rebellion.
Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting TM to get cabinet to accept that the UK to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed
Another proposal that won't have a majority in parliament.
It will have a majority in Parliament as it virtually matches Labour's policy
Why would that stop them voting against? Their primary goal at the moment is to provoke a GE somehow, not help get a Brexit agreement.

It would not stop Corbyn and his allies voting against, it may stop many of his backbenchers voting against given they agree with the policy and can't stand Corbyn

HYUFD · October 2018

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.

The country will not accept No Deal

Anazina · October 2018

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.

You do realise there are countries within a customs union that are not in the EU?

dixiedean · October 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it

But beware. Telegraph has become the Daily Boris. It should be taken with due care and attention.

Mortimer · October 2018

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.

A time limited stay in the customs union might work; it would also act as an incentive to the EU to get the trade deal sorted.

kle4 · October 2018

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:
Well something has to break, to break this deadlock. The EU’s red lines, the UKs border, the Tory party, the govt, the DUP, TM’s premiership. Something has to give. Just a question of what.
Quite so. I had thought TM's premiership would have first, allowing other options to be at least attempted, but no. So now I am thinking it is the UKs border - yes, the government is dependent on the DUP, but it's easier to counter the, with Labour rebels on this issue than mass Tory rebellion.
Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting TM to get cabinet to accept that the UK to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed
Another proposal that won't have a majority in parliament.
It will have a majority in Parliament as it virtually matches Labour's policy
Why would that stop them voting against? Their primary goal at the moment is to provoke a GE somehow, not help get a Brexit agreement.
It would not stop Corbyn and his allies voting against, it may stop many of his backbenchers voting against given they agree with the policy and can't stand Corbyn

Enough to counter the ERG and DUP (if they too are against this)? That's a lot of people having to stand up and 'prop up' a Tory government (never mind that it is about a major policy which goes beyond party politics, and if it is not far off Labour policy and prevents no deal it is not as though it means the Tories will be propped up to do anything else).

Anazina · October 2018

kle4 said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
Unless parliament votes to have an early GE, the country won't get a chance to accept it or not until it is long done. Indeed, were this done I am sure the Tory poll ratings will plunge, meaning they will limp on with constant rebellions but still trying to stay in office for as long as possible to give themselves at least a slither of a chance to recover.

What makes you think that? A CU might be reasonably popular

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2018

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.

With respect you do not represent the Country. Far from it.

Indeed tonight the conservative remainers have said they will vote for TM deal and last night John Mann said that a lot of labour mps will vote with the government if TM deal is reasonable

Brexiteers have pushed too hard

archer101au · October 2018

Stereotomy said:
Why exactly are the DUP opposed to the whole-UK CU option?

It still involves NI operating under SM regulation while GB does not - eg creates a regulatory barrier in the Irish Sea. It is also not Brexit and the DUP support Brexit. As they correctly say, NI would be run under a regime where they have no democratic control.

kle4 · October 2018

Mortimer said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
A time limited stay in the customs union might work; it would also act as an incentive to the EU to get the trade deal sorted.

Aren't the EU objecting to time limiting it?

TheWhiteRabbit · October 2018

kle4 said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
Unless parliament votes to have an early GE, the country won't get a chance to accept it or not until it is long done. Indeed, were this done I am sure the Tory poll ratings will plunge, meaning they will limp on with constant rebellions but still trying to stay in office for as long as possible to give themselves at least a slither of a chance to recover.

I doubt it, I suggest come 30 March "Exit day" the Tories will be higher than they are now, even if we are still in a customs union

Foxy · October 2018

HYUFD said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
The country will not accept No Deal

The public may not like it, but may not be able to stop it. Armies have been mobilised.

HYUFD · October 2018

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:
Well something has to break, to break this deadlock. The EU’s red lines, the UKs border, the Tory party, the govt, the DUP, TM’s premiership. Something has to give. Just a question of what.
Quite so. I had thought TM's premiership would have first, allowing other options to be at least attempted, but no. So now I am thinking it is the UKs border - yes, the government is dependent on the DUP, but it's easier to counter the, with Labour rebels on this issue than mass Tory rebellion.
Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting TM to get cabinet to accept that the UK to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed
Another proposal that won't have a majority in parliament.
It will have a majority in Parliament as it virtually matches Labour's policy
Why would that stop them voting against? Their primary goal at the moment is to provoke a GE somehow, not help get a Brexit agreement.
It would not stop Corbyn and his allies voting against, it may stop many of his backbenchers voting against given they agree with the policy and can't stand Corbyn
Enough to counter the ERG and DUP (if they too are against this)? That's a lot of people having to stand up and 'prop up' a Tory government (never mind that it is about a major policy which goes beyond party politics, and if it is not far off Labour policy and prevents no deal it is not as though it means the Tories will be propped up to do anything else).

Easily over 150 Labour MPs voted against Corbyn being Labour leader and that is more than the ERG and DUP combined especially when you add the 12 LD and 37 SNP MPs too.

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2018

Stereotomy said:
Why exactly are the DUP opposed to the whole-UK CU option?

I am not sure thay are

rottenborough · October 2018

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.

Nobody, other than a few sovereignty obsessives, gives a monkeys about a customs union, nor the mythical ability to trade with the rest of the world.

They care about FoM.

That's it.

FrancisUrquhart · October 2018

If Telegraph front page is true, Brenda from Bristol will be getting another call...

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2018

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:
Well something has to break, to break this deadlock. The EU’s red lines, the UKs border, the Tory party, the govt, the DUP, TM’s premiership. Something has to give. Just a question of what.
Quite so. I had thought TM's premiership would have first, allowing other options to be at least attempted, but no. So now I am thinking it is the UKs border - yes, the government is dependent on the DUP, but it's easier to counter the, with Labour rebels on this issue than mass Tory rebellion.
Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting TM to get cabinet to accept that the UK to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed
Another proposal that won't have a majority in parliament.
It will have a majority in Parliament as it virtually matches Labour's policy
Why would that stop them voting against? Their primary goal at the moment is to provoke a GE somehow, not help get a Brexit agreement.

Corbyn's goal but not so much those sitting behind him. If this keeps us in a customs union I would expect it to pass

kle4 · October 2018

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:
Well something has to break, to break this deadlock. The EU’s red lines, the UKs border, the Tory party, the govt, the DUP, TM’s premiership. Something has to give. Just a question of what.
Quite so. I had thought TM's premiership would have first, allowing other options to be at least attempted, but no. So now I am thinking it is the UKs border - yes, the government is dependent on the DUP, but it's easier to counter the, with Labour rebels on this issue than mass Tory rebellion.
Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting TM to get cabinet to accept that the UK to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed
Another proposal that won't have a majority in parliament.
It will have a majority in Parliament as it virtually matches Labour's policy
Why would that stop them voting against? Their primary goal at the moment is to provoke a GE somehow, not help get a Brexit agreement.
It would not stop Corbyn and his allies voting against, it may stop many of his backbenchers voting against given they agree with the policy and can't stand Corbyn
Enough to counter the ERG and DUP (if they too are against this)? That's a lot of people having to stand up and 'prop up' a Tory government (never mind that it is about a major policy which goes beyond party politics, and if it is not far off Labour policy and prevents no deal it is not as though it means the Tories will be propped up to do anything else).
Easily over 150 Labour MPs voted against Corbyn being Labour leader and that is more than the ERG and DUP combined especially when you add the 12 LD and 37 SNP MPs too.

There may be a difference between voting against Corbyn as leader, and even rebelling against him on previous votes, and backing the Tory government on a critical vote. Especially if they believe either they can get remain out of it somehow, or that if the government collapses and Labour win a GE, they'll do the same thing anyway so no need to back the Tories.

archer101au · October 2018

HYUFD said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
The country will not accept No Deal

You are wrong. No deal plus CETA are a majority, If the EU will not agree CETA these people will accept no deal.

On the other hand, almost nobody supported Chequers and May’s deal will be less popular than Chequers.

The one thing the country will not accept is giving up control by staying in a CU until the EU agree we can leave.

Anazina · October 2018

archer101au said:

Stereotomy said:
Why exactly are the DUP opposed to the whole-UK CU option?
It still involves NI operating under SM regulation while GB does not - eg creates a regulatory barrier in the Irish Sea. It is also not Brexit and the DUP support Brexit. As they correctly say, NI would be run under a regime where they have no democratic control.

There is already a regulatory border on the River Foyle as has been pointed out to you several times. As for it not being Brexit - there are countries within the single market that are not in the EU.

kle4 · October 2018

TheWhiteRabbit said:

kle4 said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
Unless parliament votes to have an early GE, the country won't get a chance to accept it or not until it is long done. Indeed, were this done I am sure the Tory poll ratings will plunge, meaning they will limp on with constant rebellions but still trying to stay in office for as long as possible to give themselves at least a slither of a chance to recover.
I doubt it, I suggest come 30 March "Exit day" the Tories will be higher than they are now, even if we are still in a customs union

You think the support among the grassroots for much harder options will not lead to a depressed poll rating at further capitulation by the government? It's not my party but I would confess to being surprised by that.

Anazina · October 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
With respect you do not represent the Country. Far from it.

Indeed tonight the conservative remainers have said they will vote for TM deal and last night John Mann said that a lot of labour mps will vote with the government if TM deal is reasonable

Brexiteers have pushed too hard

I think you might be right.

Customs Union sounds good to me.

ralphmalph · October 2018

kle4 said:

Mortimer said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
A time limited stay in the customs union might work; it would also act as an incentive to the EU to get the trade deal sorted.
Aren't the EU objecting to time limiting it?

Telegraph reporting they have conceded on that point.

viewcode · October 2018

Foxy said:
The public may not like it, but may not be able to stop it. Armies have been mobilised.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqlEKMtwUR4

kle4 · October 2018

Anazina said:

kle4 said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
Unless parliament votes to have an early GE, the country won't get a chance to accept it or not until it is long done. Indeed, were this done I am sure the Tory poll ratings will plunge, meaning they will limp on with constant rebellions but still trying to stay in office for as long as possible to give themselves at least a slither of a chance to recover.
What makes you think that? A CU might be reasonably popular

I think it might be reasonably popular generally, but I think enough Tory members and MPs are viciously opposed to it that it would have to hit their support levels.

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2018

archer101au said:

HYUFD said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
The country will not accept No Deal
You are wrong. No deal plus CETA are a majority, If the EU will not agree CETA these people will accept no deal.

On the other hand, almost nobody supported Chequers and May’s deal will be less popular than Chequers.

The one thing the country will not accept is giving up control by staying in a CU until the EU agree we can leave.

I respectfully say again, you do not speak for the 65 million in the country

You are in a minority, indeed a big minority.

HYUFD · October 2018

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
The country will not accept No Deal
The public may not like it, but may not be able to stop it. Armies have been mobilised.

Of course they can stop it and they will stop it, either at the next general election or at EUref2.

You cannot impose a policy on the public a majority of them oppose and it will not be able to get through Parliament anyway which would prefer EEA over No Deal

archer101au · October 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
With respect you do not represent the Country. Far from it.

Indeed tonight the conservative remainers have said they will vote for TM deal and last night John Mann said that a lot of labour mps will vote with the government if TM deal is reasonable

Brexiteers have pushed too hard

As I said in the earlier thread, this is nothing to do with the ERG. This is down to May agreeing the backstop - her mistake. The backstop is not deliverable and blocks almost all kinds of deal except EEA/CU which May has declared is not Brexit.

May fell for the backstop trap. Don’t blame the people who told her not to do it. We are not being held up by the trade ageement, we are being held up by May’s backstop,

ralphmalph · October 2018

rottenborough said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
Nobody, other than a few sovereignty obsessives, gives a monkeys about a customs union, nor the mythical ability to trade with the rest of the world.

They care about FoM.

That's it.

And this is the problem May has. She will tell the country we have left the EU on 28/3/19 and FOM will continue till 31/12/20.

She has a big problem with this.

Anazina · October 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:
Well something has to break, to break this deadlock. The EU’s red lines, the UKs border, the Tory party, the govt, the DUP, TM’s premiership. Something has to give. Just a question of what.
Quite so. I had thought TM's premiership would have first, allowing other options to be at least attempted, but no. So now I am thinking it is the UKs border - yes, the government is dependent on the DUP, but it's easier to counter the, with Labour rebels on this issue than mass Tory rebellion.
Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting TM to get cabinet to accept that the UK to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed
Another proposal that won't have a majority in parliament.
It will have a majority in Parliament as it virtually matches Labour's policy
Why would that stop them voting against? Their primary goal at the moment is to provoke a GE somehow, not help get a Brexit agreement.
Corbyn's goal but not so much those sitting behind him. If this keeps us in a customs union I would expect it to pass

Spot on Lab moderates > Corbynites in parliament

HYUFD · October 2018

rottenborough said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
Nobody, other than a few sovereignty obsessives, gives a monkeys about a customs union, nor the mythical ability to trade with the rest of the world.

They care about FoM.

That's it.

And we could have controlled that in the EU if Blair had imposed some transition controls in 2004

Foxy · October 2018

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
The country will not accept No Deal
The public may not like it, but may not be able to stop it. Armies have been mobilised.
Of course they can stop it and they will stop it, either at the next general election or at EUref2.

You cannot impose a policy on the public a majority of them oppose and it will not be able to get through Parliament anyway which would prefer EEA over No Deal

If No Deal Brexit happens in six months time, how can an election afterwards stop it? Time travel?

kle4 · October 2018

Anazina said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
With respect you do not represent the Country. Far from it.

Indeed tonight the conservative remainers have said they will vote for TM deal and last night John Mann said that a lot of labour mps will vote with the government if TM deal is reasonable

Brexiteers have pushed too hard
I think you might be right.

Customs Union sounds good to me.

Plenty of softer leaver types did not object to the idea right after the referendum, but i remain skeptical of the ability to get it through. If it was that easy, and that Labour would rebel in large enough numbers to get it through, then May would have tried it long ago rather than waste months on a proposal most knew was dead on arrival.

Although on a general point given that Brexit was a cross party issue (albeit stronger in some than others) and the highly variable post Brexit options, it frankly feels a bit ridiculous if party discipline really did hold up completely on a final vote on it. It seems to me to be the sort of thing that should end up with dozens of rebels on each side.

HYUFD · October 2018

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:
Well something has to break, to break this deadlock. The EU’s red lines, the UKs border, the Tory party, the govt, the DUP, TM’s premiership. Something has to give. Just a question of what.
Quite so. I had thought TM's premiership would have first, allowing other options to be at least attempted, but no. So now I am thinking it is the UKs border - yes, the government is dependent on the DUP, but it's easier to counter the, with Labour rebels on this issue than mass Tory rebellion.
Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting TM to get cabinet to accept that the UK to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed
Another proposal that won't have a majority in parliament.
It will have a majority in Parliament as it virtually matches Labour's policy
Why would that stop them voting against? Their primary goal at the moment is to provoke a GE somehow, not help get a Brexit agreement.
It would not stop Corbyn and his allies voting against, it may stop many of his backbenchers voting against given they agree with the policy and can't stand Corbyn
Enough to counter the ERG and DUP (if they too are against this)? That's a lot of people having to stand up and 'prop up' a Tory government (never mind that it is about a major policy which goes beyond party politics, and if it is not far off Labour policy and prevents no deal it is not as though it means the Tories will be propped up to do anything else).
Easily over 150 Labour MPs voted against Corbyn being Labour leader and that is more than the ERG and DUP combined especially when you add the 12 LD and 37 SNP MPs too.

There may be a difference between voting against Corbyn as leader, and even rebelling against him on previous votes, and backing the Tory government on a critical vote. Especially if they believe either they can get remain out of it somehow, or that if the government collapses and Labour win a GE, they'll do the same thing anyway so no need to back the Tories.

Why? If you get No Deal there may not be time to get a deal through before Brexit day even if Labour win a snap general election before March. Indeed May might even win a snap general election as she could justifiably say Labour have put party before country

Anazina · October 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:

archer101au said:

HYUFD said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
The country will not accept No Deal
You are wrong. No deal plus CETA are a majority, If the EU will not agree CETA these people will accept no deal.

On the other hand, almost nobody supported Chequers and May’s deal will be less popular than Chequers.

The one thing the country will not accept is giving up control by staying in a CU until the EU agree we can leave.
I respectfully say again, you do not speak for the 65 million in the country

You are in a minority, indeed a big minority.

I’d say he was in a fairly tiny minority

rottenborough · October 2018

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
Nobody, other than a few sovereignty obsessives, gives a monkeys about a customs union, nor the mythical ability to trade with the rest of the world.

They care about FoM.

That's it.
And we could have controlled that in the EU if Blair had imposed some transition controls in 2004

I remain unconvinced by this. The issue would have arisen, just later down the tracks.

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2018

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
With respect you do not represent the Country. Far from it.

Indeed tonight the conservative remainers have said they will vote for TM deal and last night John Mann said that a lot of labour mps will vote with the government if TM deal is reasonable

Brexiteers have pushed too hard

As I said in the earlier thread, this is nothing to do with the ERG. This is down to May agreeing the backstop - her mistake. The backstop is not deliverable and blocks almost all kinds of deal except EEA/CU which May has declared is not Brexit.

May fell for the backstop trap. Don’t blame the people who told her not to do it. We are not being held up by the trade ageement, we are being held up by May’s backstop,

At this moment in time Norway + would have majority support in the HOC. Yes it would cause civil war in the party but if TM gets the majority HOC support she will have lanced the boil of brexit

archer101au · October 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:

archer101au said:

HYUFD said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
The country will not accept No Deal
You are wrong. No deal plus CETA are a majority, If the EU will not agree CETA these people will accept no deal.

On the other hand, almost nobody supported Chequers and May’s deal will be less popular than Chequers.

The one thing the country will not accept is giving up control by staying in a CU until the EU agree we can leave.
I respectfully say again, you do not speak for the 65 million in the country

You are in a minority, indeed a big minority.

You can’t tell the people that won the referendum that they are the minority. Leave was about taking back control. Handing the power to decide whether we can ever leave the CU to the EU is, er, not exactly taking back control.

Respectfully I remind you that the Remainers here all thought that the public would rush to back Chequers.

HYUFD · October 2018

archer101au said:

HYUFD said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
The country will not accept No Deal
You are wrong. No deal plus CETA are a majority, If the EU will not agree CETA these people will accept no deal.

On the other hand, almost nobody supported Chequers and May’s deal will be less popular than Chequers.

The one thing the country will not accept is giving up control by staying in a CU until the EU agree we can leave.

No you are wrong, Remain leads No Deal 55% to 45%, CETA is only possible for the whole UK if the backstop is agreed, otherwise the alternatives are EU, EEA or No Deal.

The one thing the country will not accept is No Deal

http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7

kle4 · October 2018

Oh right, I forgot about Scotland. Time for the podcast.

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:
Well something has to break, to break this deadlock. The EU’s red lines, the UKs border, the Tory party, the govt, the DUP, TM’s premiership. Something has to give. Just a question of what.
Quite so. I had thought TM's premiership would have first, allowing other options to be at least attempted, but no. So now I am thinking it is the UKs border - yes, the government is dependent on the DUP, but it's easier to counter the, with Labour rebels on this issue than mass Tory rebellion.
Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting TM to get cabinet to accept that the UK to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed
Another proposal that won't have a majority in parliament.
It will have a majority in Parliament as it virtually matches Labour's policy
Why would that stop them voting against? Their primary goal at the moment is to provoke a GE somehow, not help get a Brexit agreement.
It would not stop Corbyn and his allies voting against, it may stop many of his backbenchers voting against given they agree with the policy and can't stand Corbyn
Enough to counter the ERG and DUP (if they too are against this)? That's a lot of people having to stand up andg else).
Easily over 150 Labour MPs voted against Corbyn being Labour leader and that is more than the ERG and DUP combined especially when you add the 12 LD and 37 SNP MPs too.

There may be a difference between voting against Corbyn as leader, and even rebelling against him on previous votes, and backing the Tory government on a critical vote. Especially if they believe either they can get remain out of it somehow, or that if the government collapses and Labour win a GE, they'll do the same thing anyway so no need to back the Tories.
Why? If you get No Deal there may not be time to get a deal through before Brexit day even if Labour win a snap general election before March. Indeed May might even win a snap general election as she could justifiably say Labour have put party before country

I don't think everyone is thinking completely practically on this, they are playing for high stakes. Voting it down may not make it simple for remain to somehow emerge, or a new GE, but partisan behaviour is very strong and I think there may be more Tory rebels than you think, and fewer Labour ones than you think.

Stereotomy · October 2018

archer101au said:

Stereotomy said:
Why exactly are the DUP opposed to the whole-UK CU option?
It still involves NI operating under SM regulation while GB does not - eg creates a regulatory barrier in the Irish Sea.

Why? And is that SM including FoM, or cherry-picked SM?

Foxy · October 2018

In reality, Customs Union is the only Brexit deliverable by March. WTO Brexit may have been possible if our government hadn't squandered two years.

Next step is May caving in on FoM, but that can wait until the Trade talks. The salami treatment is best done slowly.

HYUFD · October 2018

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
Nobody, other than a few sovereignty obsessives, gives a monkeys about a customs union, nor the mythical ability to trade with the rest of the world.

They care about FoM.

That's it.
And we could have controlled that in the EU if Blair had imposed some transition controls in 2004
I remain unconvinced by this. The issue would have arisen, just later down the tracks.

Not really as it was the flooding of Eastern European migrants to the UK from 2004 to 2011 when most other EU nations had transition controls that was the problem, they would only have expired when they expired elsewhere in the EU. Blair imposed controls on Bulgaria and Romania from 2007 but by then having failed to impose them on Polish, Hungarian, Czech migrants etc the damage had been done

rottenborough · October 2018

Adonis is sounding hopeful tonight:

https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1050137688655958017

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2018

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

archer101au said:

HYUFD said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
The country will not accept No Deal
You are wrong. No deal plus CETA are a majority, If the EU will not agree CETA these people will accept no deal.

On the other hand, almost nobody supported Chequers and May’s deal will be less popular than Chequers.

The one thing the country will not accept is giving up control by staying in a CU until the EU agree we can leave.
I respectfully say again, you do not speak for the 65 million in the country

You are in a minority, indeed a big minority.
You can’t tell the people that won the referendum that they are the minority. Leave was about taking back control. Handing the power to decide whether we can ever leave the CU to the EU is, er, not exactly taking back control.

Respectfully I remind you that the Remainers here all thought that the public would rush to back Chequers.

Norway ++ is leaving the EU and to be honest the opposition to anything else is overwheming

You may not like it but I just do not see your vision happening

rottenborough · October 2018

Foxy said:
In reality, Customs Union is the only Brexit deliverable by March. WTO Brexit may have been possible if our government hadn't squandered two years.

Next step is May caving in on FoM, but that can wait until the Trade talks. The salami treatment is best done slowly.

May wont be around for the trade talks.

kle4 · October 2018

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

archer101au said:

HYUFD said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
The country will not accept No Deal
You are wrong. No deal plus CETA are a majority, If the EU will not agree CETA these people will accept no deal.

On the other hand, almost nobody supported Chequers and May’s deal will be less popular than Chequers.

The one thing the country will not accept is giving up control by staying in a CU until the EU agree we can leave.
I respectfully say again, you do not speak for the 65 million in the country

You are in a minority, indeed a big minority.
You can’t tell the people that won the referendum that they are the minority

Of course you can. I think the position you hold has more support among the public than many on here believe, but to take an example I voted leave too and I expect you would agree I am in a minority in that I supported Chequers, or something Chequers like. Having backed Leave in 2016 is no guarantee of being the majority now.

archer101au · October 2018

HYUFD said:

archer101au said:

HYUFD said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
The country will not accept No Deal
You are wrong. No deal plus CETA are a majority, If the EU will not agree CETA these people will accept no deal.

On the other hand, almost nobody supported Chequers and May’s deal will be less popular than Chequers.

The one thing the country will not accept is giving up control by staying in a CU until the EU agree we can leave.
No you are wrong, Remain leads No Deal 55% to 45%, CETA is only possible for the whole UK if the backstop is agreed, otherwise the alternatives are EU, EEA or No Deal.

The one thing the country will not accept is No Deal

http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7

Remain is not an option. It will be May’s sellout v no deal. Nothing else.

And CETA will eventually be agreed without the backstop, as it always could have been.

kle4 · October 2018

rottenborough said:

Foxy said:
In reality, Customs Union is the only Brexit deliverable by March. WTO Brexit may have been possible if our government hadn't squandered two years.

Next step is May caving in on FoM, but that can wait until the Trade talks. The salami treatment is best done slowly.
May wont be around for the trade talks.

Javid can cave on FoM then. Or Boris after another switch.

HYUFD · October 2018

kle4 said:
Oh right, I forgot about Scotland. Time for the podcast.
HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:
Well something has to break, to break this deadlock. The EU’s red lines, the UKs border, the Tory party, the govt, the DUP, TM’s premiership. Something has to give. Just a question of what.
Quite so. I had thought TM's premiership would have first, allowing other options to be at least attempted, but no. So now I am thinking it is the UKs border - yes, the government is dependent on the DUP, but it's easier to counter the, with Labour rebels on this issue than mass Tory rebellion.
Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting TM to get cabinet to accept that the UK to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed
Another proposal that won't have a majority in parliament.
It will have a majority in Parliament as it virtually matches Labour's policy
Why would that stop them voting against? Their primary goal at the moment is to provoke a GE somehow, not help get a Brexit agreement.
It would not stop Corbyn and his allies voting against, it may stop many of his backbenchers voting against given they agree with the policy and can't stand Corbyn
Enough to counter the ERG and DUP (if they too are against this)? That's a lot of people having to stand up andg else).
Easily over 150 Labour MPs voted against Corbyn being Labour leader and that is more than the ERG and DUP combined especially when you add the 12 LD and 37 SNP MPs too.

There may be a difference betwey'll do the same thing anyway so no need to back the Tories.
Why? If you get No Deal there may not be time to get a deal through before Brexit day even if Labour win a snap general election before March. Indeed May might even win a snap general election as she could justifiably say Labour have put party before country
I don't think everyone is thinking completely practically on this, they are playing for high stakes. Voting it down may not make it simple for remain to somehow emerge, or a new GE, but partisan behaviour is very strong and I think there may be more Tory rebels than you think, and fewer Labour ones than you think.

Only 120 Tory MPs voted Leave, that is about 50 less than the 172 Labour MPs who voted no confidence in Corbyn.

Labour MPs may oppose Chequers, they will not oppose staying in the Customs Union

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2018

rottenborough said:

Foxy said:
In reality, Customs Union is the only Brexit deliverable by March. WTO Brexit may have been possible if our government hadn't squandered two years.

Next step is May caving in on FoM, but that can wait until the Trade talks. The salami treatment is best done slowly.
May wont be around for the trade talks.

I agree with you. TM surviving to Spring is her best bet imho

rcs1000 · October 2018

kle4 said:

Mortimer said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
A time limited stay in the customs union might work; it would also act as an incentive to the EU to get the trade deal sorted.
Aren't the EU objecting to time limiting it?

Well, it's not entirely their call. If we say we want out, they have no means to force us to stay,

kle4 · October 2018

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Oh right, I forgot about Scotland. Time for the podcast.
HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:
Well something has to break, to break this deadlock. The EU’s red lines, the UKs border, the Tory party, the govt, the DUP, TM’s premiership. Something has to give. Just a question of what.
Quite so. I had thought TM's premiership would have first, allowing other options to be at least attempted, but no. So now I am thinking it is the UKs border - yes, the government is dependent on the DUP, but it's easier to counter the, with Labour rebels on this issue than mass Tory rebellion.
Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting TM to get cabinet to accept that the UK to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed
Another proposal that won't have a majority in parliament.
It will have a majority in Parliament as it virtually matches Labour's policy
Why would that stop them voting against? Their primary goal at the moment is to provoke a GE somehow, not help get a Brexit agreement.
It would not stop Corbyn and his allies voting against, it may stop many of his backbenchers voting against given they agree with the policy and can't stand Corbyn
Enough to counter the ERG and DUP (if they too are against this)? That's a lot of people having to stand up andg else).
Easily over 150 Labour MPs voted against Corbyn being Labour leader and that is more than the ERG and DUP combined especially when you add the 12 LD and 37 SNP MPs too.

There may be a difference betwey'll do the same thing anyway so no need to back the Tories.
Why? If you get No Deal there may not be time to get a deal through before Brexit day even if Labour win a snap general election before March. Indeed May might even win a snap general election as she could justifiably say Labour have put party before country
I don't thou think.
Only 120 Tory MPs voted Leave, that is about 50 less than the 172 Labour MPs who voted no confidence in Corbyn

Again, I don't think you can claim with confidence that the number who voted against him then will do so now on this issue, particularly when part of their motivation may have nothing to do with him and more about simply not backing any form of Brexit in the possibly mistaken idea that it can aid remain.

archer101au · October 2018

Foxy said:
In reality, Customs Union is the only Brexit deliverable by March. WTO Brexit may have been possible if our government hadn't squandered two years.

Next step is May caving in on FoM, but that can wait until the Trade talks. The salami treatment is best done slowly.

And this is the point that the CU advocates miss. Being in the CU on its own does not solve NI. We have to remain in full alignment with the SM as well. So, as you say, the EU will just force us to another cliff edge at the end of transition and then insist on EEA+CU. Barnier is adament that the UK cannot remain in a UK wide backstop indefinitely.

That is why this deal will fall apart. It doesn’t achieve anything and will not deliver Brexit.

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2018

archer101au said:

HYUFD said:

archer101au said:

HYUFD said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
The country will not accept No Deal
You are wrong. No deal plus CETA are a majority, If the EU will not agree CETA these people will accept no deal.

On the other hand, almost nobody supported Chequers and May’s deal will be less popular than Chequers.

The one thing the country will not accept is giving up control by staying in a CU until the EU agree we can leave.
No you are wrong, Remain leads No Deal 55% to 45%, CETA is only possible for the whole UK if the backstop is agreed, otherwise the alternatives are EU, EEA or No Deal.

The one thing the country will not accept is No Deal

http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
Remain is not an option. It will be May’s sellout v no deal. Nothing else.

And CETA will eventually be agreed without the backstop, as it always could have been.

Remain has become very much an option if ERG take down TM deal

HYUFD · October 2018

archer101au said:

HYUFD said:

archer101au said:

HYUFD said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
The country will not accept No Deal
You are wrong. No deal plus CETA are a majority, If the EU will not agree CETA these people will accept no deal.

On the other hand, almost nobody supported Chequers and May’s deal will be less popular than Chequers.

The one thing the country will not accept is giving up control by staying in a CU until the EU agree we can leave.
No you are wrong, Remain leads No Deal 55% to 45%, CETA is only possible for the whole UK if the backstop is agreed, otherwise the alternatives are EU, EEA or No Deal.

The one thing the country will not accept is No Deal

http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
Remain is not an option. It will be May’s sellout v no deal. Nothing else.

And CETA will eventually be agreed without the backstop, as it always could have been.

No Deal is not an option. If it is Remain v No Deal Remain will win an EUref2 in all likelihood by next March and RIP Brexit.

Barnier has made quite clear he will not agree CETA for the UK as opposed to GB without a backstop

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2018

archer101au said:

Foxy said:
In reality, Customs Union is the only Brexit deliverable by March. WTO Brexit may have been possible if our government hadn't squandered two years.

Next step is May caving in on FoM, but that can wait until the Trade talks. The salami treatment is best done slowly.

And this is the point that the CU advocates miss. Being in the CU on its own does not solve NI. We have to remain in full alignment with the SM as well. So, as you say, the EU will just force us to another cliff edge at the end of transition and then insist on EEA+CU. Barnier is adament that the UK cannot remain in a UK wide backstop indefinitely.

That is why this deal will fall apart. It doesn’t achieve anything and will not deliver Brexit.

Not your brexit maybe, but EEA +CU is fine by me

rottenborough · October 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Foxy said:
In reality, Customs Union is the only Brexit deliverable by March. WTO Brexit may have been possible if our government hadn't squandered two years.

Next step is May caving in on FoM, but that can wait until the Trade talks. The salami treatment is best done slowly.
May wont be around for the trade talks.
I agree with you. TM surviving to Spring is her best bet imho

She certainly wont be around for the end of the trade talks!!!

archer101au · October 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

archer101au said:

HYUFD said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
The country will not accept No Deal
You are wrong. No deal plus CETA are a majority, If the EU will not agree CETA these people will accept no deal.

On the other hand, almost nobody supported Chequers and May’s deal will be less popular than Chequers.

The one thing the country will not accept is giving up control by staying in a CU until the EU agree we can leave.
I respectfully say again, you do not speak for the 65 million in the country

You are in a minority, indeed a big minority.
You can’t tell the people that won the referendum that they are the minority. Leave was about taking back control. Handing the power to decide whether we can ever leave the CU to the EU is, er, not exactly taking back control.

Respectfully I remind you that the Remainers here all thought that the public would rush to back Chequers.
Norway ++ is leaving the EU and to be honest the opposition to anything else is overwheming

You may not like it but I just do not see your vision happening

May said that Norway was not delivering Brexit.

Charles · October 2018

Rumour at dinner

Cabinet tomorrow

Not everyone invited

May will propose staying in the CU

Shit will go down - several resignations

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:

archer101au said:

Foxy said:
In reality, Customs Union is the only Brexit deliverable by March. WTO Brexit may have been possible if our government hadn't squandered two years.

Next step is May caving in on FoM, but that can wait until the Trade talks. The salami treatment is best done slowly.

And this is the point that the CU advocates miss. Being in the CU on its own does not solve NI. We have to remain in full alignment with the SM as well. So, as you say, the EU will just force us to another cliff edge at the end of transition and then insist on EEA+CU. Barnier is adament that the UK cannot remain in a UK wide backstop indefinitely.

That is why this deal will fall apart. It doesn’t achieve anything and will not deliver Brexit.
Not your brexit maybe, but EEA +CU is fine by me

Indeed I believe the SNP would vote for Norway so to control our fisheries

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2018

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

archer101au said:

HYUFD said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
The country will not accept No Deal
You are wrong. No deal plus CETA are a majority, If the EU will not agree CETA these people will accept no deal.

On the other hand, almost nobody supported Chequers and May’s deal will be less popular than Chequers.

The one thing the country will not accept is giving up control by staying in a CU until the EU agree we can leave.
I respectfully say again, you do not speak for the 65 million in the country

You are in a minority, indeed a big minority.
You can’t tell the people that won the referendum that they are the minority. Leave was about taking back control. Handing the power to decide whether we can ever leave the CU to the EU is, er, not exactly taking back control.

Respectfully I remind you that the Remainers here all thought that the public would rush to back Chequers.
Norway ++ is leaving the EU and to be honest the opposition to anything else is overwheming

You may not like it but I just do not see your vision happening
May said that Norway was not delivering Brexit.

Compromise

Tony · October 2018

If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd
I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.

They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers.
However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.

Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2018

Charles said:
Rumour at dinner

Cabinet tomorrow

Not everyone invited

May will propose staying in the CU

Shit will go down - several resignations

Must be possible

HYUFD · October 2018

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Oh right, I forgot about Scotland. Time for the podcast.
HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:
Well something has to break, to break this deadlock. The EU’s red lines, the UKs border, the Tory party, the govt, the DUP, TM’s premiership. Something has to give. Just a question of what.
Quite so. I had thought TM's premiership would have first, allowing other options to be at least attempted, but no. So now I am thinking it is the UKs border - yes, the government is dependent on the DUP, but it's easier to counter the, with Labour rebels on this issue than mass Tory rebellion.
Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting TM to get cabinet to accept that the UK to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed
Another proposal that won't have a majority in parliament.
It will have a majority in Parliament as it virtually matches Labour's policy
Why would that stop them voting against? Their primary goal at the moment is to provoke a GE somehow, not help get a Brexit agreement.
It would not stop Corbyn and his allies voting against, it may stop many of his backbenchers voting against given they agree with the policy and can't stand Corbyn
Enough to counter the ERG and DUP (if they too are against this)? That's a lot of people having to stand up andg else).
Easily over 150 Labour MPs voted against Corbyn being Labour leader and that is more than the ERG and DUP combined especially when you add the 12 LD and 37 SNP MPs too.

There may be a difference betwey'll do the same thing anyway so no need to back the Tories.
Why? If you get No Deal there may not be time to get a defore country
I don't thou think.
Only 120 Tory MPs voted Leave, that is about 50 less than the 172 Labour MPs who voted no confidence in Corbyn
Again, I don't think you can claim with confidence that the number who voted against him then will do so now on this issue, particularly when part of their motivation may have nothing to do with him and more about simply not backing any form of Brexit in the possibly mistaken idea that it can aid remain.

On what grounds? Labour's own policy is to stay in the Customs Union which is a big move closer to Remain anyway while securing a transition period

archer101au · October 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

archer101au said:

HYUFD said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
The country will not accept No Deal
You are wrong. No deal plus CETA are a majority, If the EU will not agree CETA these people will accept no deal.

On the other hand, almost nobody supported Chequers and May’s deal will be less popular than Chequers.

The one thing the country will not accept is giving up control by staying in a CU until the EU agree we can leave.
I respectfully say again, you do not speak for the 65 million in the country

You are in a minority, indeed a big minority.
You can’t tell the people that won the referendum that they are the minority. Leave was about taking back control. Handing the power to decide whether we can ever leave the CU to the EU is, er, not exactly taking back control.

Respectfully I remind you that the Remainers here all thought that the public would rush to back Chequers.
Norway ++ is leaving the EU and to be honest the opposition to anything else is overwheming

You may not like it but I just do not see your vision happening
May said that Norway was not delivering Brexit.
Compromise

No credibility at that stage. May cannot deliver Norway. She is on record saying it would be unacceptable for the UK. How are you going to get a new leader who will do this?

kle4 · October 2018

Charles said:

Shit will go down - several resignations

I'm sure there will be - she said no more concessions, or at least gave that impression.

Unless May gets public support for this new option (assuming for the moment she survives proposing it - and really, if they don't get 48 letters in after proposing it then the ERG really are just a bunch of moaning malcontents who don't even want to attempt to do something) from Labour MPs, willing to rebel to back it even though an evil Tory suggests it, then it is just another dead option, as she fills in some more Cabinet places with remainers.

rcs1000 · October 2018

As an aside, it looks like Shaun Bailey may have said a few things in the past that will dent his chances in the 2020 London Mayorals.

HYUFD · October 2018

Tony said:
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd
I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.

They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers.
However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.

Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.

Davis would not be unopposed if he had no plan for the backstop better than May's, indeed May would likely survive a No confidence vote

rcs1000 · October 2018

Tony said:
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd
I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.

They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers.
However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.

Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.

The problem with that theory is the "Davis elected unopposed" bit, because it only takes a few MPs to ensure there's a contest. Can anyone think of an MP desperate to become Prime Minister out there???

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2018

Tony said:
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd
I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.

They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers.
However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.

Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.

Care to explain how that works. As a member and have a vote for her successor I am interested to know how David Davis is crowned without my vote

kle4 · October 2018

HYUFD said:

On what grounds? Labour's own policy is to stay in the Customs Union which is a big move closer to Remain anyway while securing a transition period

I have already explained the hypothesis is based around either hoping for a remain option, full remain, or a belief they can get their Labour policy through without needing to back the Tories to do so. An unnecessary and silly gamble, perhaps, but when people despise the other political side as much as our lot do, rational thinking often goes out the window - we haveseen plenty of comments on here before about 'what's the point of party x' if they, for any reason, voted with the other side.

I'm not expecting the sides to behave entirely rationally on this.

GIN1138 · October 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph reporting that the cabinet are to be asked to stay in the customs union for the whole of the UK until a trade deal is agreed

ERG will not like it
The country will not accept it. It is not Brexit.
With respect you do not represent the Country. Far from it.

Indeed tonight the conservative remainers have said they will vote for TM deal and last night John Mann said that a lot of labour mps will vote with the government if TM deal is reasonable

Brexiteers have pushed too hard

As I said in the earlier thread, this is nothing to do with the ERG. This is down to May agreeing the backstop - her mistake. The backstop is not deliverable and blocks almost all kinds of deal except EEA/CU which May has declared is not Brexit.

May fell for the backstop trap. Don’t blame the people who told her not to do it. We are not being held up by the trade ageement, we are being held up by May’s backstop,
At this moment in time Norway + would have majority support in the HOC. Yes it would cause civil war in the party but if TM gets the majority HOC support she will have lanced the boil of brexit

Lanced the boil for who?

See here's the thing. You see everything through the prism of Remainers because you were and are a Remainer.

So sure she'll have "lanced the boil" of Brexit for Remainers (by ensuring we don't leave) but how will she have lanced the boil for leavers who despite winning the referendum have seen their vote betrayed?

What this is all about, and always has been, is the losers being unable to accept they lost and trying to overturn the referendum.

Everything else is smoke and mirrors.

williamglenn · October 2018

rcs1000 said:

Tony said:
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd
I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.

They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers.
However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.

Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.

The problem with that theory is the "Davis elected unopposed" bit, because it only takes a few MPs to ensure there's a contest. Can anyone think of an MP desperate to become Prime Minister out there???

Oh Andrea Leadsom.

Tony · October 2018

HYUFD said:

Tony said:
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd
I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.

They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers.
However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.

Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.

Davis would not be unopposed if he had no plan for the backstop better than May's, indeed May would likely survive a No confidence vote

Learn how to count as LBJ said

, without the DUP she would lose a no confidence vote , and there would be 14 days to get a PM who could bring the DUP back onside or there's an election.

Beverley_C · October 2018

Charles said:
Rumour at dinner

Cabinet tomorrow

Not everyone invited

May will propose staying in the CU

Shit will go down - several resignations

How can you "Not invite" Cabinet Ministers to the Cabinet? I guess we will find how accurate your gossips are

rcs1000 · October 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tony said:
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd
I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.

They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers.
However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.

Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.

Care to explain how that works. As a member and have a vote for her successor I am interested to know how David Davis is crowned without my vote

It requires that:

1. Theresa May falls on her sword.
2. Only one set of nomination papers is submitted.

The first is unlikely, but possible. The second is highly unlikely. Not impossible, but it would require the various factions in the Conservative Party to unite around a candidate.

Beverley_C · October 2018

archer101au said:
No credibility at that stage. May cannot deliver Norway. She is on record saying it would be unacceptable for the UK. How are you going to get a new leader who will do this?

This would be the same PM who said that she was not having an election and the called an election? She has form...

HYUFD · October 2018

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

On what grounds? Labour's own policy is to stay in the Customs Union which is a big move closer to Remain anyway while securing a transition period
I have already explained the hypothesis is based around either hoping for a remain option, full remain, or a belief they can get their Labour policy through without needing to back the Tories to do so. An unnecessary and silly gamble, perhaps, but when people despise the other political side as much as our lot do, rational thinking often goes out the window - we haveseen plenty of comments on here before about 'what's the point of party x' if they, for any reason, voted with the other side.

I'm not expecting the sides to behave entirely rationally on this.

They would have to vote with Mogg and Johnson to do so, that requires a lot of thinking.

However No Deal is not an option, if so it kills Brexit

kle4 · October 2018

Beverley_C said:

archer101au said:
No credibility at that stage. May cannot deliver Norway. She is on record saying it would be unacceptable for the UK. How are you going to get a new leader who will do this?
This would be the same PM who said that she was not having an election and the called an election? She has form...

The difference was she had a lot of backing for her personally to delivery an election despite ruling it out, whereas I suspect the party would be less willing to forget that she ruled out a new Brexit option and then wants to do it.

Beverley_C · October 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:

archer101au said:

Foxy said:
In reality, Customs Union is the only Brexit deliverable by March. WTO Brexit may have been possible if our government hadn't squandered two years.

Next step is May caving in on FoM, but that can wait until the Trade talks. The salami treatment is best done slowly.

And this is the point that the CU advocates miss. Being in the CU on its own does not solve NI. We have to remain in full alignment with the SM as well. So, as you say, the EU will just force us to another cliff edge at the end of transition and then insist on EEA+CU. Barnier is adament that the UK cannot remain in a UK wide backstop indefinitely.

That is why this deal will fall apart. It doesn’t achieve anything and will not deliver Brexit.
Not your brexit maybe, but EEA +CU is fine by me

Except we cannot do EEA quickly. We have to leave and then apply to EFTA first, then apply for EEA. It could be years and damage caused by Brexit will be done in weeks or months.

Tony · October 2018

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tony said:
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd
I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.

They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers.
However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.

Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.

Care to explain how that works. As a member and have a vote for her successor I am interested to know how David Davis is crowned without my vote
It requires that:

1. Theresa May falls on her sword.
2. Only one set of nomination papers is submitted.

The first is unlikely, but possible. The second is highly unlikely. Not impossible, but it would require the various factions in the Conservative Party to unite around a candidate.

14 days to pass a confidence vote or it's an election. Think about that situation.
Tory MP's either pick a single candidate bypassing the members who the DUP would support or it's a general election.

rottenborough · October 2018

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tony said:
If the telegraph story is right , NI stays in the SM , GB leaves it , then May is going to get No confidence'd
I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.

They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers.
However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.

Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.

Care to explain how that works. As a member and have a vote for her successor I am interested to know how David Davis is crowned without my vote
It requires that:

1. Theresa May falls on her sword.
2. Only one set of nomination papers is submitted.

The first is unlikely, but possible. The second is highly unlikely. Not impossible, but it would require the various factions in the Conservative Party to unite around a candidate.

I think I can see a flaw in this otherwise cunning plan...

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