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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: What now for Scotland?

On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by pollster Mark Diffley to deep dive on the latest round of polls in Scotland.
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ERG will not like it
Otherwise if we get a transition period and withdrawal agreement or and move towards a FTA or stay in the single market or if Remain wins an EU ref2 and if Unionist parties win a majority at Holyrood in 2021 as polls suggest is possible indyref2 could be a decade or more away
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D--lS69dk0k
Indeed tonight the conservative remainers have said they will vote for TM deal and last night John Mann said that a lot of labour mps will vote with the government if TM deal is reasonable
Brexiteers have pushed too hard
They care about FoM.
That's it.
On the other hand, almost nobody supported Chequers and May’s deal will be less popular than Chequers.
The one thing the country will not accept is giving up control by staying in a CU until the EU agree we can leave.
Customs Union sounds good to me.
You are in a minority, indeed a big minority.
You cannot impose a policy on the public a majority of them oppose and it will not be able to get through Parliament anyway which would prefer EEA over No Deal
As I said in the earlier thread, this is nothing to do with the ERG. This is down to May agreeing the backstop - her mistake. The backstop is not deliverable and blocks almost all kinds of deal except EEA/CU which May has declared is not Brexit.
May fell for the backstop trap. Don’t blame the people who told her not to do it. We are not being held up by the trade ageement, we are being held up by May’s backstop,
She has a big problem with this.
Although on a general point given that Brexit was a cross party issue (albeit stronger in some than others) and the highly variable post Brexit options, it frankly feels a bit ridiculous if party discipline really did hold up completely on a final vote on it. It seems to me to be the sort of thing that should end up with dozens of rebels on each side.
Respectfully I remind you that the Remainers here all thought that the public would rush to back Chequers.
The one thing the country will not accept is No Deal
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
Next step is May caving in on FoM, but that can wait until the Trade talks. The salami treatment is best done slowly.
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1050137688655958017
You may not like it but I just do not see your vision happening
And CETA will eventually be agreed without the backstop, as it always could have been.
Labour MPs may oppose Chequers, they will not oppose staying in the Customs Union
And this is the point that the CU advocates miss. Being in the CU on its own does not solve NI. We have to remain in full alignment with the SM as well. So, as you say, the EU will just force us to another cliff edge at the end of transition and then insist on EEA+CU. Barnier is adament that the UK cannot remain in a UK wide backstop indefinitely.
That is why this deal will fall apart. It doesn’t achieve anything and will not deliver Brexit.
Barnier has made quite clear he will not agree CETA for the UK as opposed to GB without a backstop
Cabinet tomorrow
Not everyone invited
May will propose staying in the CU
Shit will go down - several resignations
I suspect this is what DD and Steve Baker are up to.
They know they can't get rid of May via a MP ballot as they don't have the numbers.
However if the DUP vote no confidence , May resigns, Davis elected unopposed with DUP promising support and wins the 2nd no confidence vote within the 2 week period in the FTPA.
Tory remainers would then be in a pickle , do they support Davis as PM or let in Corbyn to stop Brexit.
Unless May gets public support for this new option (assuming for the moment she survives proposing it - and really, if they don't get 48 letters in after proposing it then the ERG really are just a bunch of moaning malcontents who don't even want to attempt to do something) from Labour MPs, willing to rebel to back it even though an evil Tory suggests it, then it is just another dead option, as she fills in some more Cabinet places with remainers.
I'm not expecting the sides to behave entirely rationally on this.
See here's the thing. You see everything through the prism of Remainers because you were and are a Remainer.
So sure she'll have "lanced the boil" of Brexit for Remainers (by ensuring we don't leave) but how will she have lanced the boil for leavers who despite winning the referendum have seen their vote betrayed?
What this is all about, and always has been, is the losers being unable to accept they lost and trying to overturn the referendum.
Everything else is smoke and mirrors.
1. Theresa May falls on her sword.
2. Only one set of nomination papers is submitted.
The first is unlikely, but possible. The second is highly unlikely. Not impossible, but it would require the various factions in the Conservative Party to unite around a candidate.
However No Deal is not an option, if so it kills Brexit
Tory MP's either pick a single candidate bypassing the members who the DUP would support or it's a general election.