politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By-Election Preview : January 23rd 2014

Test of tartan fortunes here.

Just got round to watching the latest Sherlock. Ludicrous yet enjoyable.
The shark will be well and truly jumped if Moriarty is alive, though. I suspect Sherlock may have been behind the video

ALERT - The Diplomacy game has just gone down for me -

DavidL said:

Freggles said:

Just got round to watching the latest Sherlock. Ludicrous yet enjoyable.
The shark will be well and truly jumped if Moriarty is alive, though. I suspect Sherlock may have been behind the video

I finally watched the last episode of the latest series last night. Slightly underwhelmed to be honest. The really clever solution to a complicated blackmailer was to shoot him? A man with Sherlock's observational skills never noticed that someone he had a lot of contact with was a trained killer? The video on the house? The drug stuff that didn't go anywhere. All a bit silly I thought.

I have been catching up with some of the second series. Much, much better.

I'll be the first (or second after Mrs Freggles) to admit I don't view TV critically and stuff like this generally passes me by until it's pointed out.
There are a few episodes I haven't seen so will go back and view them.

taffys said:

Telly running a story about alleged Labour attempts to scupper the referendum Bill.

should the tories be making more of this? 'denying you a say'

You do realise labour are in opposition and the tories are in power?

If the referendum Bill fails tory backbenchers will know exactly why. It's the same reason they've believed all the ludicrous Cast Iron Pledges and posturing before from Cameron on Europe. Tory Eurosceptics and backbenchers are just very, very gullible.

Steven_Ronald said:

Carynx - You have failed to make that post confusing enough, please try again.

Sorry. Fouled up the little arrows. Thanks for telling me. Trying again ...

AveryLP said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

The madness of Alex Salmond;
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10593197/Alex-Salmond-rejects-luxury-hotel-spending-criticism-as-ridiculous-frippery.html

Mrs Lamont continued to press him how the money was spent and a stay for him and his wife in the luxury Peninsula Hotel, which is popular with stars such as Brad Pitt and Justin Bieber and charges more than £1,200 per night for a suite.

Perhaps Eck will be adopting Justin Bieber's most recent form of accommodation.

Hmm, we'll see what the details turn out to be, but the DT and Ms Lamont (whose attack on the First Minister at FM's Questions was the source) are not well known for telling the whole truth if it relates in any way to the SNP. (If most Tories on this website read the DT, then that would certainly explain a few things that have been puzzling me.)

The other media outlets do not seem to be jumping on this. Even Ms Davidson (who is as any fule kno leader of the Tory Party in the Scottish Pmt) did not pick up on this at First Mins Questions, acc to the BBC website for the Scottish news (Brian Taylor) who is more interested in reporting Ms L than the supposed story. I see Ms L or the DT (whichver it is) carefully does not say that Mr S DID take a suite at that price (presumably the highest brochure price) while gleefully implying that he did. Like the Gleneagles Hotel story of a few months ago, which was started on the same basis that Salmond MIGHT have taken the bridal suite or whatever it was called ....

And back to Dunfermline - there seems rather little media coverage here, which if true presumably reflects everyone's expectation that it will be a Lab hold.

Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead falls to three points: CON 35%, LAB 38%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%

Scott_P said:

Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead falls to three points: CON 35%, LAB 38%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%

Compouter will be relieved of his burden soon.

3%. A Marmite Dropper.

@chrisshipitv: The full version of today's events on Mike Hancock MP will only be found on @itvnews Next.

Pulpstar said:

ALERT - The Diplomacy game has just gone down for me -

Probably a mercy. Sit quietly and take deep breaths, not to mention a stiff whisky or two, before you look at it again. And I am sorry.

AveryLP said:

Good evening Avery.

I notice you failed to take up my bet on government borrowing instead preferring some spinning about car sales.

Perhaps we could frame a bet on whether industrial ouput or retail sales will rise most during this government ?

This is getting interesting...

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/education/article3984346.ece

another_richard said:

AveryLP said:

Good evening Avery.

I notice you failed to take up my bet on government borrowing instead preferring some spinning about car sales.

Perhaps we could frame a bet on whether industrial ouput or retail sales will rise most during this government ?

Good Evening, ar.

You didn't read my post to Little Cub Scout.

Therein I revealed that Public Sector Net Debt had risen by the full amount of £7 million between the end of f/y 2009/10 and end December 2013.

Betting with you that it increases by more than £497 million within fifteen months would be the equivalent of robbing a food bank.

I simply don't have the moral courage to contemplate it.

compouter2 said:

AveryLP said:

Scott_P said:

Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead falls to three points: CON 35%, LAB 38%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%

Compouter will be relieved of his burden soon.

3%. A Marmite Dropper.

.....moves on yet again.

And yet again the polling crossover Jonah makes his statement.

Avery LP, you are the Man United of polling predictions.

Very kind of you to say so, compouter.

It is always best in times of uncertainty to place faith in one's past record.

AveryLP said:

another_richard said:

AveryLP said:

Good evening Avery.

I notice you failed to take up my bet on government borrowing instead preferring some spinning about car sales.

Perhaps we could frame a bet on whether industrial ouput or retail sales will rise most during this government ?

Good Evening, ar.

You didn't read my post to Little Cub Scout.

Therein I revealed that Public Sector Net Debt had risen by the full amount of £7 million between the end of f/y 2009/10 and end December 2013.

Betting with you that it increases by more than £497 million within fifteen months would be the equivalent of robbing a food bank.

I simply don't have the moral courage to contemplate it.

I was amused (and noticed myself yesturday from the ONS publication) that you can't even peddle that crap about the government paying down the debt on a measure nobody else pays any attention to.

But surely you're not willing to concede that the economy will have become more unbalanced under Osborne's stewardship.

I can imagine what our Field Marshal friend will say.

And here's another bet you may be interested in:

That there be a single month's trade surplus before May 2015.

After all every previous government has managed at least one, surely Osborne isn't going to preside over 60 months of trade deficit after all that speechifying he has done ?

UKIP have a chance of beating the LDs tonight in the Cowdenbeath by-election despite it being one of the worst parts of the country for Farage's party. They might even get close to the Tories.

AndyJS said:

UKIP have a chance of beating the LDs tonight in the Cowdenbeath by-election despite it being one of the worst parts of the country for Farage's party. They might even get close to the Tories.

When are we expecting a result? Later this evening, or are they delaying counting till tomorrow do you know?

HYUFD said:

Some Tory MPs say Ed Miliband much nicer than Cameron and he speaks to them in the corridors of Westminster and even sends them congratulatory notes after a good speech!
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article3983387.ece

Oily little creep is our Ed.

HYUFD said:

Some Tory MPs say Ed Miliband much nicer than Cameron and he speaks to them in the corridors of Westminster and even sends them congratulatory notes after a good speech!
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article3983387.ece

I think he probably is nicer on a personal level.

HYUFD said:

Some Tory MPs say Ed Miliband much nicer than Cameron and he speaks to them in the corridors of Westminster and even sends them congratulatory notes after a good speech!
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article3983387.ece

Not hard to work out why, is it?

Eurosceptics treated Cameron like a foul smell

Betrayed by their hero, Cameron's eurosceptics are quickly returning to their bitter, angry roots.

The last time David Cameron updated the Commons on his return from Brussels he was treated like a hero. The acclaim appeared to have no limits; the prodigal son, had he seen this display of lionising, must have felt like a big disappointment upon his own return. What a difference a follow-up summit makes. Today the Tory eurosceptics edged away from the PM, collectively wrinkling their noses as if he had made a bad smell.

http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2012/01/31/sketch-eurosceptics-treated-cameron-like-a-foul-smell

Tom McTague ‏@MirrorMcTague

Michael Gove turned around and shouted at his fellow Tory MPs: "Disgrace, disgrace, disgrace."

Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes

William Hague stresses he & Cameron will not seek unilateral repatriation of powers from EU as part of renegotiation http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article3818130.ece …

James Wonnacott ‏@JamesWonnacott

Another big name says #no2eu Michael Portillo: Cameron's EU referendum is an 'insincere ploy' via @Telegraph http://soa.li/OlB5ajl

An excellent portrait of Salmond at bay;

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10593707/Salmonds-bunker-mentality.html

AndyJS said:

HYUFD said:

Some Tory MPs say Ed Miliband much nicer than Cameron and he speaks to them in the corridors of Westminster and even sends them congratulatory notes after a good speech!
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article3983387.ece

I think he probably is nicer on a personal level.

I can't remember any equivalent anecdotes such as the two Charles tells about Cameron.

Gareth Baines ‏@GABaines

Evidence has emerged supporting UKIP Councillor David Silvester's claims that gays cause bad weather... pic.twitter.com/OLWTQhjlGY

*chortle*

Moniker Indeed, he is the smiling assassin! Avery Well some Tory MPs seem to have fallen for it. Andy JS Probably, but we are voting for a party and a PM not a best friend.

MickPork Cameron is probably the most presidential PM in some ways we have had, even more than Blair, because he is governing in a Coalition and can basically ignore most of his backbenchers

MikeK said:

Now before you jump on me; this is my own personal opinion, and has nothing to do with UKIP policy on Scotland.

Your leader seems to be able to slough off his previous manifesto commitments at the drop of a trilby, so maybe this will be UKIP policy by tomorrow (unless of course they make the great leap forward of finally retaining a Scottish deposit tonight).

Theuniondivvie said:

MikeK said:

Now before you jump on me; this is my own personal opinion, and has nothing to do with UKIP policy on Scotland.

Your leader seems to be able to slough off his previous manifesto commitments at the drop of a trilby, so maybe this will be UKIP policy by tomorrow (unless of course they make the great leap forward of finally retaining a Scottish deposit tonight).

The last Labour gov't went to court to establish that their manifesto commitments were meaningless.

Really?

It seems to be one of the better argued and more intelligent QTs for some time. Probably because of the absence of some half wit celebrity going for cheap laughs.

And its from that glorious British Imperial city of Dundee, the home of the jute and marmalade.

( I mentioned it once, but I think I got away with it!)

MikeK said:

Trying to watch QT from Scotland and have given up in exasperation. For the simple reason that Scotland is a foreign country, I can't understand the language and we (the rest of England and Wales) would be better off without them.

Now before you jump on me; this is my own personal opinion, and has nothing to do with UKIP policy on Scotland.

MikeK said:

Trying to watch QT from Scotland and have given up in exasperation. For the simple reason that Scotland is a foreign country, I can't understand the language and we (the rest of England and Wales) would be better off without them.

Now before you jump on me; this is my own personal opinion, and has nothing to do with UKIP policy on Scotland.

AveryLP said:

another_richard said:

AveryLP said:

Still, I do expect a trade surplus in the 2015-2020 period, provided the electorate are not idiots in May 2015.

The trade surplus will only come when there is a reduction in comsumption of imports.

Our economic problems stem from our consumption addiction, whether that be the trade deficit, the level of debt, collapsing pension provision or lack of investment.

It even has non-economic drawbacks such as the increase in obesity.

But no government will now pull the plug on overconsumption because there are too many voters addicted to it.

The most malign phrases of the past decade were "Don't put if off, put it on" and "Because I'm worth it".

I would have been readier to agree if you had inserted the qualifier "relative" before the word consumption on your first line.

Osborne is a chancellor who charts a course around storms rather than through them. Balance is all.

Give him time he will reach his destination. The risk of being sunk is too high to recommend the brave but foolhardy alternate.

We don't have the time.

The hurricane of the next recession will arrive while Osborne is still going nowhere on his pleasure yacht.

The sensible people would have already reached safety even if that meant some inconvenience of the way.

We don't need a relative decrease in wealth consumption we need an absolute decrease. Our position has become too extreme and long term for any more pretence.

Southend result Con hold Con 743 LD 688 UKIP 418 Lab 149

Swing to Rennards Lib Dems

MarkSenior said:

Southend result Con hold Con 743 LD 688 UKIP 418 Lab 149

Swing to Rennards Lib Dems

So no 'touch and go', Mark?

HYUFD said:

Moniker Indeed, he is the smiling assassin! Avery Well some Tory MPs seem to have fallen for it. Andy JS Probably, but we are voting for a party and a PM not a best friend.

MickPork Cameron is probably the most presidential PM in some ways we have had, even more than Blair, because he is governing in a Coalition and can basically ignore most of his backbenchers

The curious thing is that, although Cameron is a second rate Blair impersonator and has made no secret of his admiration of Blair and wish to try and follow in his footsteps, he never understood how Blair operated. From day 1 Blair made it a priority to court his own own MPs in the commons and keep them onside because he knew that eventually he would need their support even though he got in with a landslide. So it turned out with Iraq and other votes where he personally had to cajole a fractious party in favour of what most of them probably knew were bad ideas even at the time.

Cameron on the other hand has relied on the coalition and the lib dems as the goto excuse for all his many rebellions and vote failures when it's perfectly clear that he has mishandled and ignored tory backbench opinion at every turn. Doesn't matter if the Cameroons think the tory backbenchers are spoiled or self-destructive. What matters is they are his responsibility as leader. So it's a bit much for the Cameroons to throw their hands in the air and wonder why the tory party are so obsessed with Europe after all the posturing by the Cameroon on the EU. Or for the likes of Gove to rant furiously at those same backbenchers even though they had made it crystal clear what they would do if a Syria vote came up in the commons. If party discipline is a problem then the buck stops with those in charge of it. John Major lost no time in blaming the "b****rds" too, but his legacy as a PM who simply couldn't control his own party is repeating itself with Cameron.

HYUFD said:

Allegation made about Rennard on QT by Labour spokesman which seems to go a bit further than what has been publically disclosed

Certainly it has been made public by Guido.

And some time ago too.

Southend result Con hold Con 743 LD 688 UKIP 418 Lab 149

Swing to Rennards Lib Dems
---

More likely swing from Conservative to UKIP with LD vote holding up.

Easterross said:

The SNP candidate in Cowdenbeath happens to be the partner of the only Tory councillor in Glasgow. Who says we Scots don't go in for "mixed marriages"

Actually, it appears we do.

Ed Conway ‏@EdConwaySky 14 hrs
Interesting ONS figs on diversity. In England 4.6% of couples are of different ethnicities. Wales: 2.4%. N Ireland: 0.6%. Scotland: 7.5%

I agree, we definitely have a few Tartan Tories drifting back to the party from the SNP as well as the Libdems. I wonder if we will get a PB thread on Libdem/Tory switchers in Scotland any time soon.

MonikerDiCanio said:

fitalass said:

Ironically, I suspect the Tories in Scotland are definitely benefiting from the dip in the Libdem's popularity.

Easterross said:

A Tory colleague is suggesting Labour has easily 50% of vote in Cowdenbeath and he expects Tory share of vote to be up.

I think the Scottish Tories are also benefiting from a marked drop in SNP popularity.

"Mike Hancock’s son, Dean, is charged with assault causing actual bodily harm…"

http://order-order.com/2014/01/23/hancock-charged/

MickPork Indeed, which is why a repeat of the Coalition may actually be the best bet for Cameron, a small majority at the mercy of his backbenchers would leave him with the same problems as Major (though Major was never personally disliked by most of his backbenchers, and indeed the 'Bastards' were all in the Cabinet on the frontbench not behind him)

According to the Scottish Governments figures 4% of Scots are from non-white ethnic minorities, and only 0.4% of mixed ethnicity.

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/People/Equality/Equalities/DataGrid/Ethnicity/EthPopMig

7.5% of Scottish couples being mixed ethnicity seems rather high, if one means white/non-white. Do the Scottish figures include mixed Scottish/English or Scottish/Irish?

Theuniondivvie said:

Easterross said:

The SNP candidate in Cowdenbeath happens to be the partner of the only Tory councillor in Glasgow. Who says we Scots don't go in for "mixed marriages"

Actually, it appears we do.

Ed Conway ‏@EdConwaySky 14 hrs
Interesting ONS figs on diversity. In England 4.6% of couples are of different ethnicities. Wales: 2.4%. N Ireland: 0.6%. Scotland: 7.5%

AveryLP said:

another_richard said:

AveryLP said:

another_richard said:

AveryLP said:

Still, I do expect a trade surplus in the 2015-2020 period, provided the electorate are not idiots in May 2015.

The trade surplus will only come when there is a reduction in comsumption of imports.

Our economic problems stem from our consumption addiction, whether that be the trade deficit, the level of debt, collapsing pension provision or lack of investment.

It even has non-economic drawbacks such as the increase in obesity.

But no government will now pull the plug on overconsumption because there are too many voters addicted to it.

The most malign phrases of the past decade were "Don't put if off, put it on" and "Because I'm worth it".

I would have been readier to agree if you had inserted the qualifier "relative" before the word consumption on your first line.

Osborne is a chancellor who charts a course around storms rather than through them. Balance is all.

Give him time he will reach his destination. The risk of being sunk is too high to recommend the brave but foolhardy alternate.

We don't have the time.

The hurricane of the next recession will arrive while Osborne is still going nowhere on his pleasure yacht.

The sensible people would have already reached safety even if that meant some inconvenience of the way.

We don't need a relative decrease in wealth consumption we need an absolute decrease. Our position has become too extreme and long term for any more pretence.

Provided you remain ahead of your competitors and continue to make progress towards your destination, there is always time, ar.

We're not remaining ahead and we're not making progress.

Take a look at the productivity and unit labour cost stats to see all you need to know.

But you and most people prefer the pretence.

another_richard said:

AveryLP said:

another_richard said:

AveryLP said:

another_richard said:

AveryLP said:

Still, I do expect a trade surplus in the 2015-2020 period, provided the electorate are not idiots in May 2015.

The trade surplus will only come when there is a reduction in comsumption of imports.

Our economic problems stem from our consumption addiction, whether that be the trade deficit, the level of debt, collapsing pension provision or lack of investment.

It even has non-economic drawbacks such as the increase in obesity.

But no government will now pull the plug on overconsumption because there are too many voters addicted to it.

The most malign phrases of the past decade were "Don't put if off, put it on" and "Because I'm worth it".

I would have been readier to agree if you had inserted the qualifier "relative" before the word consumption on your first line.

Osborne is a chancellor who charts a course around storms rather than through them. Balance is all.

Give him time he will reach his destination. The risk of being sunk is too high to recommend the brave but foolhardy alternate.

We don't have the time.

The hurricane of the next recession will arrive while Osborne is still going nowhere on his pleasure yacht.

The sensible people would have already reached safety even if that meant some inconvenience of the way.

We don't need a relative decrease in wealth consumption we need an absolute decrease. Our position has become too extreme and long term for any more pretence.

Provided you remain ahead of your competitors and continue to make progress towards your destination, there is always time, ar.

We're not remaining ahead and we're not making progress.

Take a look at the productivity and unit labour cost stats to see all you need to know.

But you and most people prefer the pretence.

There are as many theories about the causes of the falls in productivity as there are economists willing to espouse them.

Sorting out the real causes - and there are likely to be many rather than few - and acting to reverse the trends is one of the urgent tasks of this government.

At least George and Mark have identified the problem.

foxinsoxuk said:

According to the Scottish Governments figures 4% of Scots are from non-white ethnic minorities, and only 0.4% of mixed ethnicity.

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/People/Equality/Equalities/DataGrid/Ethnicity/EthPopMig

7.5% of Scottish couples being mixed ethnicity seems rather high, if one means white/non-white. Do the Scottish figures include mixed Scottish/English or Scottish/Irish?

Theuniondivvie said:

Easterross said:

The SNP candidate in Cowdenbeath happens to be the partner of the only Tory councillor in Glasgow. Who says we Scots don't go in for "mixed marriages"

Actually, it appears we do.

Ed Conway ‏@EdConwaySky 14 hrs
Interesting ONS figs on diversity. In England 4.6% of couples are of different ethnicities. Wales: 2.4%. N Ireland: 0.6%. Scotland: 7.5%

I suspect the real percentage is closer to 0.75 than 7.5.

HYUFD said:

Avery LP Has it? QT is recorded live and the BBC has no control over what its panellists say until after they have said it, maybe it missed the censors before it was aired? Dimbleby did read out Rennard's statement but did not reference the Labour spokeswoman's specific allegation which may be telling

QT is recorded at 8:00 pm on the day of its broadcast and is vetted by BBC lawyers. If a statement needs to be removed there is enough time to edit before it goes to air.

That doesn't mean of course that all potential libels are weeded out but that one was so obvious it must have been subject to an editorial and legal decision.