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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By-Election Preview : January 23rd 2014
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By-Election Preview : January 23rd 2014
Motherwell North on North Lanarkshire (Lab Defence)
Result of last election to council (2012): Labour 41, SNP 26, Independents 2, Cumbernauld Independents 1 (Labour overall majority of 12)
Result of ward at last election (2012):
0
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;-)
should the tories be making more of this? 'denying you a say'
The shark will be well and truly jumped if Moriarty is alive, though. I suspect Sherlock may have been behind the video
UKIP could use it as well. You could have a poster of a blue collar worker with a gag and a likeness of Ed standing behind him, pulling it tight and grinning.
Incredibly, I don;t charge for this stuff...
I have been catching up with some of the second series. Much, much better.
8:08PM edited 8:10PM
MonikerDiCanio said:
The madness of Alex Salmond;
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10593197/Alex-Salmond-rejects-luxury-hotel-spending-criticism-as-ridiculous-frippery.html
Mrs Lamont continued to press him how the money was spent and a stay for him and his wife in the luxury Peninsula Hotel, which is popular with stars such as Brad Pitt and Justin Bieber and charges more than £1,200 per night for a suite.
Perhaps Eck will be adopting Justin Bieber's most recent form of accommodation.
Hmm, we'll see what the details turn out to be, but the DT and Ms L are not well known for telling the whole truth if it relates in any way to the SNP. (If most Tories on this website read the DT, then that would certainly explain a few things that have been puzzling me.)
The other media outlets do not seem to be jumping on this. Even Ms Davidson (who is as any fule kno leader of the Tory Party in the Scottish Pmt) did not pick up on this at First Mins Questions, acc to the BBC website for the Scottish news (Brian Taylor) who is more interested in reporting Ms L than the supposed story. I see Ms L or the DT (whichver it is) carefully does not say that Mr S DID take a suite at that price (presumably the highest brochure price) while gleefully implying that he did. Like the Gleneagles Hotel story of a few months ago, which was started on the same basis that Salmond MIGHT have taken the bridal suite or whatever it was called ....
And back to Dunfermline - there seems rather little media coverage here, which if true presumably reflects everyone's expectation that it will be a Lab hold.
There are a few episodes I haven't seen so will go back and view them.
If the referendum Bill fails tory backbenchers will know exactly why. It's the same reason they've believed all the ludicrous Cast Iron Pledges and posturing before from Cameron on Europe. Tory Eurosceptics and backbenchers are just very, very gullible.
Hmm, we'll see what the details turn out to be, but the DT and Ms Lamont (whose attack on the First Minister at FM's Questions was the source) are not well known for telling the whole truth if it relates in any way to the SNP. (If most Tories on this website read the DT, then that would certainly explain a few things that have been puzzling me.)
The other media outlets do not seem to be jumping on this. Even Ms Davidson (who is as any fule kno leader of the Tory Party in the Scottish Pmt) did not pick up on this at First Mins Questions, acc to the BBC website for the Scottish news (Brian Taylor) who is more interested in reporting Ms L than the supposed story. I see Ms L or the DT (whichver it is) carefully does not say that Mr S DID take a suite at that price (presumably the highest brochure price) while gleefully implying that he did. Like the Gleneagles Hotel story of a few months ago, which was started on the same basis that Salmond MIGHT have taken the bridal suite or whatever it was called ....
And back to Dunfermline - there seems rather little media coverage here, which if true presumably reflects everyone's expectation that it will be a Lab hold.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/alex-salmond-under-fire-staying-3054570
I think Carnyx is saying Eck booked the Presidential Suite but the hotel got the year of booking wrong.
3%. A Marmite Dropper.
PB tories fall over themselves to believe the same old labour spin on a story that nobody took seriously months ago and aren't about to just because Lamont and the Torygraph are shrieking about it yet again.
The PB tory gullibility and ignorance is staggering.
Just asking for a friend.
I notice you failed to take up my bet on government borrowing instead preferring some spinning about car sales.
Perhaps we could frame a bet on whether industrial ouput or retail sales will rise most during this government ?
I assume this is the story to which you are alluding.
http://bit.ly/1ffRJhq
Are all our preserves and toast spreads tainted?
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/education/article3984346.ece
You didn't read my post to Little Cub Scout.
Therein I revealed that Public Sector Net Debt had risen by the full amount of £7 million between the end of f/y 2009/10 and end December 2013.
Betting with you that it increases by more than £497 million within fifteen months would be the equivalent of robbing a food bank.
I simply don't have the moral courage to contemplate it.
YouGov: Labour share solid - Tory numbers keep going up and down. Don't know what to make of it all to be honest.
And yet again the polling crossover Jonah makes his statement.
Avery LP, you are the Man United of polling predictions.
It is always best in times of uncertainty to place faith in one's past record.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article3983387.ece
But surely you're not willing to concede that the economy will have become more unbalanced under Osborne's stewardship.
I can imagine what our Field Marshal friend will say.
And here's another bet you may be interested in:
That there be a single month's trade surplus before May 2015.
After all every previous government has managed at least one, surely Osborne isn't going to preside over 60 months of trade deficit after all that speechifying he has done ?
Err....poll....what poll?
Oil and gas extraction has fallen and is continuing to fall too rapidly and the positive balance in services needs another year or two of City recovery to compensate. Manufacturing exports will though start to reverse its falling trend.
Still, I do expect a trade surplus in the 2015-2020 period, provided the electorate are not idiots in May 2015.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-25872510
Our economic problems stem from our consumption addiction, whether that be the trade deficit, the level of debt, collapsing pension provision or lack of investment.
It even has non-economic drawbacks such as the increase in obesity.
But no government will now pull the plug on overconsumption because there are too many voters addicted to it.
The most malign phrases of the past decade were "Don't put if off, put it on" and "Because I'm worth it".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10593707/Salmonds-bunker-mentality.html
Osborne is a chancellor who charts a course around storms rather than through them. Balance is all.
Give him time he will reach his destination. The risk of being sunk is too high to recommend the brave but foolhardy alternate.
Now before you jump on me; this is my own personal opinion, and has nothing to do with UKIP policy on Scotland.
Pigs can fly, Pork!
MickPork Cameron is probably the most presidential PM in some ways we have had, even more than Blair, because he is governing in a Coalition and can basically ignore most of his backbenchers
Paul Hutcheon, Sunday Herald tweets: How would Robert Burns have voted in #Cowdenbeath?
The same way as other people did - through a combination of using a ballot paper and not being dead.
The second point isn't necessarily a show-stopper, though, as the dead have quite a long standing tradition of casting votes for Labour and Sinn Féin.
It seems to be one of the better argued and more intelligent QTs for some time. Probably because of the absence of some half wit celebrity going for cheap laughs.
And its from that glorious British Imperial city of Dundee, the home of the jute and marmalade.
( I mentioned it once, but I think I got away with it!)
The hurricane of the next recession will arrive while Osborne is still going nowhere on his pleasure yacht.
The sensible people would have already reached safety even if that meant some inconvenience of the way.
We don't need a relative decrease in wealth consumption we need an absolute decrease. Our position has become too extreme and long term for any more pretence.
Labour wins Motherwell Nth by-election with 67% (yes sixty-seven) of 1st preference votes!
Swing to Rennards Lib Dems
Cameron on the other hand has relied on the coalition and the lib dems as the goto excuse for all his many rebellions and vote failures when it's perfectly clear that he has mishandled and ignored tory backbench opinion at every turn. Doesn't matter if the Cameroons think the tory backbenchers are spoiled or self-destructive. What matters is they are his responsibility as leader. So it's a bit much for the Cameroons to throw their hands in the air and wonder why the tory party are so obsessed with Europe after all the posturing by the Cameroon on the EU. Or for the likes of Gove to rant furiously at those same backbenchers even though they had made it crystal clear what they would do if a Syria vote came up in the commons. If party discipline is a problem then the buck stops with those in charge of it. John Major lost no time in blaming the "b****rds" too, but his legacy as a PM who simply couldn't control his own party is repeating itself with Cameron.
And some time ago too.
Swing to Rennards Lib Dems
---
More likely swing from Conservative to UKIP with LD vote holding up.
I think the Scottish Tories are also benefiting from a marked drop in SNP popularity.
Ed Conway @EdConwaySky 14 hrs
Interesting ONS figs on diversity. In England 4.6% of couples are of different ethnicities. Wales: 2.4%. N Ireland: 0.6%. Scotland: 7.5%
http://order-order.com/2014/01/23/hancock-charged/
I was surprised by the allegation being made on QT. It does mean though that its been through the BBC legal filter.
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/People/Equality/Equalities/DataGrid/Ethnicity/EthPopMig
7.5% of Scottish couples being mixed ethnicity seems rather high, if one means white/non-white. Do the Scottish figures include mixed Scottish/English or Scottish/Irish?
Take a look at the productivity and unit labour cost stats to see all you need to know.
But you and most people prefer the pretence.
Sorting out the real causes - and there are likely to be many rather than few - and acting to reverse the trends is one of the urgent tasks of this government.
At least George and Mark have identified the problem.
Sure, Major seemed to have a bit more respect than Cameron from his backbenchers, but Major's backbenchers still happily stuck the knife in on Europe which enabled and supported the b*****ds in the cabinet who were plotting away. Being ignored by your backbenchers or being held in contempt by them amounts to the same thing, it's still a failure of party discipline.
That doesn't mean of course that all potential libels are weeded out but that one was so obvious it must have been subject to an editorial and legal decision.
That neither the EU, the Labour party or UKIP want to see a successful renegotiation of that membership or an EU Referendum any time soon is no surprise. And UKIP certainly don't want a referendum without a Conservative Leader backing our exit, and that speaks volumes about their own weakness on the issue. Hence the constant need to try to undermine Cameron's integrity or the chances of that Tory majority that would deliver the very EU Referendum that UKIPpers on here claim to want. The UKIPpers remind me of Salmond in his first term in Office in Holyrood and how he neatly avoided ever bringing that Indy Referendum to the floor of the Parliament. I hope that the media start doing some real digging around at the EU Parliament to see just what our UKIP MEP's actually get up in pursuit of their EU exit, I suspect its a damn sight less than the current Conservative party in Coalition with the Libdems have managed to achieve.