politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some pretty grim polling in London for the Tories, Labour, and

London Westminster voting intention:
Comments
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First!
Cheque is in the post, TSE.0 -
And thanks to Vanilla for the two decoy threads...0
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Cricket! WTF. Two in two. Cook Root gone. All change, please!0
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OK, time for some quick runs now.
(Bet YJB is glad he's not facing the hat trick ball...)0 -
Goodbye Chef0
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What was Root's gesture all about when he was out?
He's not retiring as well is he?0 -
Steady now - he still has to shell a couple in the slips first.TheScreamingEagles said:Goodbye Chef
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London really should vote for Shaun Bailey. It's the right thing to do.0
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Is he binning the captaincy?TheScreamingEagles said:What was Root's gesture all about when he was out?
He's not retiring as well is he?0 -
Can we get a good Tory hype train going for Bailey so that Khan's price can stay somewhat backable ?Morris_Dancer said:London really should vote for Shaun Bailey. It's the right thing to do.
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Maybe, although given the events of today's Roses match and Yorkshire's inevitable relegation to Div 2 I can see Root quitting international cricket to focus on Yorkshire.Anorak said:
Is he binning the captaincy?TheScreamingEagles said:What was Root's gesture all about when he was out?
He's not retiring as well is he?0 -
Although well down on 2017, those are actually pretty good figures for Labour. In 2015 they got 44% in London, and in 2010 37%.
There's no such comfort for the Conservatives: 35% in both 2015 and 2010.
For the LibDems, it's a pretty good recovery from the annus horribilis of 2015, when they sank to a derisory 8%, down from 22% in 2010.
Full figures for the last three GEs here:
https://data.london.gov.uk/apps_and_analysis/the-2017-general-election-the-numbers-behind-the-result/
https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/general-election-results-2015
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New NI boundaries
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-45474526
almost drawn to match ethnic headcount0 -
Kahn looks absolutely nailed on to me. Nearly half the electorate still Labour, the Tories not closing the gap, Brexit, a national government that is staggering forward, second preferences, I just don't see how it gets close.0
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Kohler-Cadmore looking quite useful, though.TheScreamingEagles said:
Maybe, although given the events of today's Roses match and Yorkshire's inevitable relegation to Div 2 I can see Root quitting international cricket to focus on Yorkshire.Anorak said:
Is he binning the captaincy?TheScreamingEagles said:What was Root's gesture all about when he was out?
He's not retiring as well is he?0 -
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1038785071203930112Nigelb said:
I believe 'tit' is the random insult of the day ?RobD said:And thanks to Vanilla for the two decoy threads...
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You are probably right, although the London mayoralty is not necessarily determined by national considerations.DavidL said:Kahn looks absolutely nailed on to me. Nearly half the electorate still Labour, the Tories not closing the gap, Brexit, a national government that is staggering forward, second preferences, I just don't see how it gets close.
Sadiq's not doing particularly well. His response on the knife-crime crisis in particular has been lacklustre at best, and he's mismanaged the TfL finances. But he's not doing so badly that he's in danger, unless the narrative changes substantially.0 -
Which presumably makes them safe as houses for either a unionist or a republican.Alanbrooke said:
New NI boundaries
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-45474526
almost drawn to match ethnic headcount0 -
England collapsing like Carthage at Zama.0
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yupAnorak said:
Which presumably makes them safe as houses for either a unionist or a republican.Alanbrooke said:
New NI boundaries
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-45474526
almost drawn to match ethnic headcount
the controversial issue was to take one seat from Belfast. Looks like they have ducked out doing that.0 -
Also, unless I have missed him, the Tories don't have another Boris. A Tory in London, especially post Brexit, really has to have the ability to reach out well beyond natural Tory support. Can Shaun Bailey do that? I don't think he has anything like the profile required.Richard_Nabavi said:
You are probably right, although the London mayoralty is not necessarily determined by national considerations.DavidL said:Kahn looks absolutely nailed on to me. Nearly half the electorate still Labour, the Tories not closing the gap, Brexit, a national government that is staggering forward, second preferences, I just don't see how it gets close.
Sadiq's not doing particularly well. His response on the knife-crime crisis in particular has been lacklustre at best, and he's mismanaged the TfL finances. But he's not doing so badly that he's in danger, unless the narrative changes substantially.0 -
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I should think one Boris is enoughDavidL said:
Also, unless I have missed him, the Tories don't have another Boris. A Tory in London, especially post Brexit, really has to have the ability to reach out well beyond natural Tory support. Can Shaun Bailey do that? I don't think he has anything like the profile required.Richard_Nabavi said:
You are probably right, although the London mayoralty is not necessarily determined by national considerations.DavidL said:Kahn looks absolutely nailed on to me. Nearly half the electorate still Labour, the Tories not closing the gap, Brexit, a national government that is staggering forward, second preferences, I just don't see how it gets close.
Sadiq's not doing particularly well. His response on the knife-crime crisis in particular has been lacklustre at best, and he's mismanaged the TfL finances. But he's not doing so badly that he's in danger, unless the narrative changes substantially.0 -
Yes you (and @DavidL) are right. Sadly. Thing is, Sadiq is a politician and "it" is not particularly broken, so no one will feel a need to fix it. Which is a shame because Shaun is a fantastic guy who can really communicate. Now, no doubt some of that accessibility would and will be rubbed off once he gains high office (if not as mayor then somewhere else) but he would be a real breath of fresh air.Richard_Nabavi said:
You are probably right, although the London mayoralty is not necessarily determined by national considerations.DavidL said:Kahn looks absolutely nailed on to me. Nearly half the electorate still Labour, the Tories not closing the gap, Brexit, a national government that is staggering forward, second preferences, I just don't see how it gets close.
Sadiq's not doing particularly well. His response on the knife-crime crisis in particular has been lacklustre at best, and he's mismanaged the TfL finances. But he's not doing so badly that he's in danger, unless the narrative changes substantially.
And Londoners might just like that.0 -
Is someone from the Lib Dems moonlighting?
https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/10391474701132021780 -
Good. Being bowled out greatly increases their chances of winning.TheScreamingEagles said:England collapsing like Carthage at Zama.
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He is perfectly fine for a semi-serious position like Mayor. Not for anything important though.Alanbrooke said:
I should think one Boris is enoughDavidL said:
Also, unless I have missed him, the Tories don't have another Boris. A Tory in London, especially post Brexit, really has to have the ability to reach out well beyond natural Tory support. Can Shaun Bailey do that? I don't think he has anything like the profile required.Richard_Nabavi said:
You are probably right, although the London mayoralty is not necessarily determined by national considerations.DavidL said:Kahn looks absolutely nailed on to me. Nearly half the electorate still Labour, the Tories not closing the gap, Brexit, a national government that is staggering forward, second preferences, I just don't see how it gets close.
Sadiq's not doing particularly well. His response on the knife-crime crisis in particular has been lacklustre at best, and he's mismanaged the TfL finances. But he's not doing so badly that he's in danger, unless the narrative changes substantially.0 -
You're saying he's ideal for First Minister of Scotland?DavidL said:
He is perfectly fine for a semi-serious position like Mayor. Not for anything important though.Alanbrooke said:
I should think one Boris is enoughDavidL said:
Also, unless I have missed him, the Tories don't have another Boris. A Tory in London, especially post Brexit, really has to have the ability to reach out well beyond natural Tory support. Can Shaun Bailey do that? I don't think he has anything like the profile required.Richard_Nabavi said:
You are probably right, although the London mayoralty is not necessarily determined by national considerations.DavidL said:Kahn looks absolutely nailed on to me. Nearly half the electorate still Labour, the Tories not closing the gap, Brexit, a national government that is staggering forward, second preferences, I just don't see how it gets close.
Sadiq's not doing particularly well. His response on the knife-crime crisis in particular has been lacklustre at best, and he's mismanaged the TfL finances. But he's not doing so badly that he's in danger, unless the narrative changes substantially.0 -
Wasn’t Boris supposed to have started his leadership campaign today?Scott_P said:0 -
Aye, the last thing India want is to try and bat out four full sessions.DavidL said:
Good. Being bowled out greatly increases their chances of winning.TheScreamingEagles said:England collapsing like Carthage at Zama.
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They are underselling it. The last one should be even lower!Anorak said:Is someone from the Lib Dems moonlighting?
https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/10391474701132021780 -
He definitely doesn't have anything like the profile required at the moment. Assuming he's the candidate, I'm sure he'll make a good shot at it (and certainly run a better campaign than Zac did, although that's not saying much), but it's a long shot all the same.DavidL said:Also, unless I have missed him, the Tories don't have another Boris. A Tory in London, especially post Brexit, really has to have the ability to reach out well beyond natural Tory support. Can Shaun Bailey do that? I don't think he has anything like the profile required.
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Governor of Southern Thule is a semi-serious position. Just sayin’....TheScreamingEagles said:
You're saying he's ideal for First Minister of Scotland?DavidL said:
He is perfectly fine for a semi-serious position like Mayor. Not for anything important though.Alanbrooke said:
I should think one Boris is enoughDavidL said:
Also, unless I have missed him, the Tories don't have another Boris. A Tory in London, especially post Brexit, really has to have the ability to reach out well beyond natural Tory support. Can Shaun Bailey do that? I don't think he has anything like the profile required.Richard_Nabavi said:
You are probably right, although the London mayoralty is not necessarily determined by national considerations.DavidL said:Kahn looks absolutely nailed on to me. Nearly half the electorate still Labour, the Tories not closing the gap, Brexit, a national government that is staggering forward, second preferences, I just don't see how it gets close.
Sadiq's not doing particularly well. His response on the knife-crime crisis in particular has been lacklustre at best, and he's mismanaged the TfL finances. But he's not doing so badly that he's in danger, unless the narrative changes substantially.0 -
Throwing the bat at this stage is the right thing to do - lead 400TheScreamingEagles said:England collapsing like Carthage at Zama.
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Didn't see this - yes, Shaun can do that.DavidL said:
Also, unless I have missed him, the Tories don't have another Boris. A Tory in London, especially post Brexit, really has to have the ability to reach out well beyond natural Tory support. Can Shaun Bailey do that? I don't think he has anything like the profile required.Richard_Nabavi said:
You are probably right, although the London mayoralty is not necessarily determined by national considerations.DavidL said:Kahn looks absolutely nailed on to me. Nearly half the electorate still Labour, the Tories not closing the gap, Brexit, a national government that is staggering forward, second preferences, I just don't see how it gets close.
Sadiq's not doing particularly well. His response on the knife-crime crisis in particular has been lacklustre at best, and he's mismanaged the TfL finances. But he's not doing so badly that he's in danger, unless the narrative changes substantially.0 -
The boundary changes are helpful to the LibDems in St Albans.
London Colney (the ward with the smallest LD vote) is transferred to Hertsmere, whilst Woodside is gained from Watford and Leavesden and Abbots Langley & Bedmond are gained from Three Rivers district (Bedmond was already part of St Albans constituency).
All three additional wards have LD councillors.0 -
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Excellent gerryman... er, unbiased work by the Commission.Scott_P said:0 -
Mr. Anorak, I wonder if Ashdown's useful as a false prophet on election nights.
"I'll eat my hat", "We must respect the vote" etc.0 -
The Saint and The Sinner!Scott_P said:0 -
118 overs for India to survive if we declare at tea.0
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Unless the LD and Green second choices are going to go Conservative (which they're not), then Kahn looks nailed on to me.Richard_Nabavi said:
You are probably right, although the London mayoralty is not necessarily determined by national considerations.DavidL said:Kahn looks absolutely nailed on to me. Nearly half the electorate still Labour, the Tories not closing the gap, Brexit, a national government that is staggering forward, second preferences, I just don't see how it gets close.
Sadiq's not doing particularly well. His response on the knife-crime crisis in particular has been lacklustre at best, and he's mismanaged the TfL finances. But he's not doing so badly that he's in danger, unless the narrative changes substantially.0 -
I'll take the 10,000 to 1 that you're offering!rcs1000 said:
Unless the LD and Green second choices are going to go Conservative (which they're not), then Kahn looks nailed on to me.Richard_Nabavi said:
You are probably right, although the London mayoralty is not necessarily determined by national considerations.DavidL said:Kahn looks absolutely nailed on to me. Nearly half the electorate still Labour, the Tories not closing the gap, Brexit, a national government that is staggering forward, second preferences, I just don't see how it gets close.
Sadiq's not doing particularly well. His response on the knife-crime crisis in particular has been lacklustre at best, and he's mismanaged the TfL finances. But he's not doing so badly that he's in danger, unless the narrative changes substantially.0 -
Afternoon all
Excellent London poll for the minor parties especially the LDs but with the Greens and UKIP also picking themselves off the floor.
Very early days in terms of 2020 but Sadiq is in a very strong position. Labour are entrenched in Inner London and in truth the Conservatives have been driven back to a few heartlands in the suburbs. The numbers don't stack well for a non-Labour candidate.
Sadiq's tenure so far hasn't been without its problems - the damage done to police numbers and the closure of stations was perpetrated by Boris and the reduction in beat policing in favour of a more mobile approach stems from the Home Secretary in the Coalition years whose name escapes me - but I've heard little positive in response from Sadiq or his advisers.
I do think on housing Sadiq has been woeful - some Boroughs are trying to crank up the house building programme but overall too little has been done to meet the ever-growing demand.
The Conservative Mayoral candidate is going to have to acknowledge the flaws of the Johnson years if he or she is going to reach beyond the core vote.0 -
Oh come, "nailed on" does not mean 10,000-1.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'll take the 10,000 to 1 that you're offering!rcs1000 said:
Unless the LD and Green second choices are going to go Conservative (which they're not), then Kahn looks nailed on to me.Richard_Nabavi said:
You are probably right, although the London mayoralty is not necessarily determined by national considerations.DavidL said:Kahn looks absolutely nailed on to me. Nearly half the electorate still Labour, the Tories not closing the gap, Brexit, a national government that is staggering forward, second preferences, I just don't see how it gets close.
Sadiq's not doing particularly well. His response on the knife-crime crisis in particular has been lacklustre at best, and he's mismanaged the TfL finances. But he's not doing so badly that he's in danger, unless the narrative changes substantially.
In fact PBers, what would you reckon the odds or implied percentage for "nailed on" is?0 -
97%+rcs1000 said:
Oh come, "nailed on" does not mean 10,000-1.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'll take the 10,000 to 1 that you're offering!rcs1000 said:
Unless the LD and Green second choices are going to go Conservative (which they're not), then Kahn looks nailed on to me.Richard_Nabavi said:
You are probably right, although the London mayoralty is not necessarily determined by national considerations.DavidL said:Kahn looks absolutely nailed on to me. Nearly half the electorate still Labour, the Tories not closing the gap, Brexit, a national government that is staggering forward, second preferences, I just don't see how it gets close.
Sadiq's not doing particularly well. His response on the knife-crime crisis in particular has been lacklustre at best, and he's mismanaged the TfL finances. But he's not doing so badly that he's in danger, unless the narrative changes substantially.
In fact PBers, what would you reckon the odds or implied percentage for "nailed on" is?0 -
I would have said 95%+, but at least we're at the same order of magnitude.Tissue_Price said:
97%+rcs1000 said:
Oh come, "nailed on" does not mean 10,000-1.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'll take the 10,000 to 1 that you're offering!rcs1000 said:
Unless the LD and Green second choices are going to go Conservative (which they're not), then Kahn looks nailed on to me.Richard_Nabavi said:
You are probably right, although the London mayoralty is not necessarily determined by national considerations.DavidL said:Kahn looks absolutely nailed on to me. Nearly half the electorate still Labour, the Tories not closing the gap, Brexit, a national government that is staggering forward, second preferences, I just don't see how it gets close.
Sadiq's not doing particularly well. His response on the knife-crime crisis in particular has been lacklustre at best, and he's mismanaged the TfL finances. But he's not doing so badly that he's in danger, unless the narrative changes substantially.
In fact PBers, what would you reckon the odds or implied percentage for "nailed on" is?0 -
I believe that the accepted definition of 'nailed on' is that you'll be happy to streak down Whitehall if you're wrong!rcs1000 said:
Oh come, "nailed on" does not mean 10,000-1.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'll take the 10,000 to 1 that you're offering!rcs1000 said:
Unless the LD and Green second choices are going to go Conservative (which they're not), then Kahn looks nailed on to me.Richard_Nabavi said:
You are probably right, although the London mayoralty is not necessarily determined by national considerations.DavidL said:Kahn looks absolutely nailed on to me. Nearly half the electorate still Labour, the Tories not closing the gap, Brexit, a national government that is staggering forward, second preferences, I just don't see how it gets close.
Sadiq's not doing particularly well. His response on the knife-crime crisis in particular has been lacklustre at best, and he's mismanaged the TfL finances. But he's not doing so badly that he's in danger, unless the narrative changes substantially.
In fact PBers, what would you reckon the odds or implied percentage for "nailed on" is?0 -
Oh, so just a 75% IP then.Richard_Nabavi said:
I believe that the accepted definition of 'nailed on' is that you'll be happy to streak down Whitehall if you're wrong!rcs1000 said:
Oh come, "nailed on" does not mean 10,000-1.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'll take the 10,000 to 1 that you're offering!rcs1000 said:
Unless the LD and Green second choices are going to go Conservative (which they're not), then Kahn looks nailed on to me.Richard_Nabavi said:
You are probably right, although the London mayoralty is not necessarily determined by national considerations.DavidL said:Kahn looks absolutely nailed on to me. Nearly half the electorate still Labour, the Tories not closing the gap, Brexit, a national government that is staggering forward, second preferences, I just don't see how it gets close.
Sadiq's not doing particularly well. His response on the knife-crime crisis in particular has been lacklustre at best, and he's mismanaged the TfL finances. But he's not doing so badly that he's in danger, unless the narrative changes substantially.
In fact PBers, what would you reckon the odds or implied percentage for "nailed on" is?0 -
That sounds a lot less expensive.Richard_Nabavi said:
I believe that the accepted definition of 'nailed on' is that you'll be happy to streak down Whitehall if you're wrong!rcs1000 said:
Oh come, "nailed on" does not mean 10,000-1.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'll take the 10,000 to 1 that you're offering!rcs1000 said:
Unless the LD and Green second choices are going to go Conservative (which they're not), then Kahn looks nailed on to me.Richard_Nabavi said:
You are probably right, although the London mayoralty is not necessarily determined by national considerations.DavidL said:Kahn looks absolutely nailed on to me. Nearly half the electorate still Labour, the Tories not closing the gap, Brexit, a national government that is staggering forward, second preferences, I just don't see how it gets close.
Sadiq's not doing particularly well. His response on the knife-crime crisis in particular has been lacklustre at best, and he's mismanaged the TfL finances. But he's not doing so badly that he's in danger, unless the narrative changes substantially.
In fact PBers, what would you reckon the odds or implied percentage for "nailed on" is?0 -
Unless it's preceded with the words "Tory majority", in which case, 50% exactly.rcs1000 said:
I would have said 95%+, but at least we're at the same order of magnitude.Tissue_Price said:
97%+rcs1000 said:
Oh come, "nailed on" does not mean 10,000-1.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'll take the 10,000 to 1 that you're offering!rcs1000 said:
Unless the LD and Green second choices are going to go Conservative (which they're not), then Kahn looks nailed on to me.Richard_Nabavi said:
You are probably right, although the London mayoralty is not necessarily determined by national considerations.DavidL said:Kahn looks absolutely nailed on to me. Nearly half the electorate still Labour, the Tories not closing the gap, Brexit, a national government that is staggering forward, second preferences, I just don't see how it gets close.
Sadiq's not doing particularly well. His response on the knife-crime crisis in particular has been lacklustre at best, and he's mismanaged the TfL finances. But he's not doing so badly that he's in danger, unless the narrative changes substantially.
In fact PBers, what would you reckon the odds or implied percentage for "nailed on" is?
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More seriously, does Khan really have only a 3% or 5% chance of losing? The election's not for nearly two years, he's lacklustre at best, TfL is in crisis, London knife crime is becoming a national scandal, and the entirely objective and non-partisan editor of the Standard seems to have decided to start laying in to him pretty seriously.Richard_Nabavi said:
I believe that the accepted definition of 'nailed on' is that you'll be happy to streak down Whitehall if you're wrong!rcs1000 said:
Oh come, "nailed on" does not mean 10,000-1.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'll take the 10,000 to 1 that you're offering!rcs1000 said:
Unless the LD and Green second choices are going to go Conservative (which they're not), then Kahn looks nailed on to me.Richard_Nabavi said:
You are probably right, although the London mayoralty is not necessarily determined by national considerations.DavidL said:Kahn looks absolutely nailed on to me. Nearly half the electorate still Labour, the Tories not closing the gap, Brexit, a national government that is staggering forward, second preferences, I just don't see how it gets close.
Sadiq's not doing particularly well. His response on the knife-crime crisis in particular has been lacklustre at best, and he's mismanaged the TfL finances. But he's not doing so badly that he's in danger, unless the narrative changes substantially.
In fact PBers, what would you reckon the odds or implied percentage for "nailed on" is?
Against that, yes of course he has a massive structural advantage. He's clearly odds-on favourite. On checking the odds I was surprised to see I could get 1.41 on Betfair, which seemed excellent value so I took some. I'd say fair odds would be about 1.15 as things stand.0 -
Having taken a look at the new boundaries, surely it's time to simply abandon any pretence that they all (or even most) signify any meaningful natural communities? Just start at Lands End and cut off constituencies at exactly the right number and name them 1,2,3,4,5 and so on.
I've moved from "The Leftover Bits Of South Oxfordshire That Don't Fit In With Any Cities Or Big Towns" to "A Long Random Squiggle From Drayton To Bicester That Skims Oxford Just Because"
Yes, well. I nearly managed to move to Henley, apparently. Somehow.0 -
Mr. 1000, nice graphic here on the subject:
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/9782499634768936960 -
I've been in Hitchin and Harpenden for years. That is two disjointed disconnected blobs in Hertfordshire. No reason except to make use of the leftover bits didn't fit anywhere.Andy_Cooke said:Having taken a look at the new boundaries, surely it's time to simply abandon any pretence that they all (or even most) signify any meaningful natural communities? Just start at Lands End and cut off constituencies at exactly the right number and name them 1,2,3,4,5 and so on.
I've moved from "The Leftover Bits Of South Oxfordshire That Don't Fit In With Any Cities Or Big Towns" to "A Long Random Squiggle From Drayton To Bicester That Skims Oxford Just Because"
Yes, well. I nearly managed to move to Henley, apparently. Somehow.
Oddly, it hasn't had a negative effect on anyone or damaged their feeling of belonging or self esteem, as far as I am aware.0 -
A fair part of the doubt in Khan's price must be attributed to national Labour outcomes. Which party would he stand for if Labour split? And might he decide he needs to get back into the HoC asap in some scenarios?Richard_Nabavi said:
More seriously, does Khan really have only a 3% or 5% chance of losing? The election's not for nearly two years, he's lacklustre at best, TfL is in crisis, London knife crime is becoming a national scandal, and the entirely objective and non-partisan editor of the Standard seems to have decided to start laying in to him pretty seriously.Richard_Nabavi said:
I believe that the accepted definition of 'nailed on' is that you'll be happy to streak down Whitehall if you're wrong!rcs1000 said:
Oh come, "nailed on" does not mean 10,000-1.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'll take the 10,000 to 1 that you're offering!rcs1000 said:
Unless the LD and Green second choices are going to go Conservative (which they're not), then Kahn looks nailed on to me.Richard_Nabavi said:
You are probably right, although the London mayoralty is not necessarily determined by national considerations.DavidL said:Kahn looks absolutely nailed on to me. Nearly half the electorate still Labour, the Tories not closing the gap, Brexit, a national government that is staggering forward, second preferences, I just don't see how it gets close.
Sadiq's not doing particularly well. His response on the knife-crime crisis in particular has been lacklustre at best, and he's mismanaged the TfL finances. But he's not doing so badly that he's in danger, unless the narrative changes substantially.
In fact PBers, what would you reckon the odds or implied percentage for "nailed on" is?
Against that, yes of course he has a massive structural advantage. He's clearly odds-on favourite. On checking the odds I was surprised to see I could get 1.41 on Betfair, which seemed excellent value so I took some. I'd say fair odds would be about 1.15 as things stand.0 -
Have we covered the loss of Jezza's seat under boundary review?
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Have you considered a job at the Boundary Commission?Andy_Cooke said:Having taken a look at the new boundaries, surely it's time to simply abandon any pretence that they all (or even most) signify any meaningful natural communities? Just start at Lands End and cut off constituencies at exactly the right number and name them 1,2,3,4,5 and so on.
I've moved from "The Leftover Bits Of South Oxfordshire That Don't Fit In With Any Cities Or Big Towns" to "A Long Random Squiggle From Drayton To Bicester That Skims Oxford Just Because"
Yes, well. I nearly managed to move to Henley, apparently. Somehow.
You might have more fun in the local government version.0 -
Yes, those certainly need to be considered. The first one is a very interesting question.Tissue_Price said:A fair part of the doubt in Khan's price must be attributed to national Labour outcomes. Which party would he stand for if Labour split? And might he decide he needs to get back into the HoC asap in some scenarios?
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Now that's a good point. That would change the odds materially.Tissue_Price said:
A fair part of the doubt in Khan's price must be attributed to national Labour outcomes. Which party would he stand for if Labour split? And might he decide he needs to get back into the HoC asap in some scenarios?Richard_Nabavi said:
More seriously, does Khan really have only a 3% or 5% chance of losing? The election's not for nearly two years, he's lacklustre at best, TfL is in crisis, London knife crime is becoming a national scandal, and the entirely objective and non-partisan editor of the Standard seems to have decided to start laying in to him pretty seriously.Richard_Nabavi said:
I believe that the accepted definition of 'nailed on' is that you'll be happy to streak down Whitehall if you're wrong!rcs1000 said:
Oh come, "nailed on" does not mean 10,000-1.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'll take the 10,000 to 1 that you're offering!rcs1000 said:
Unless the LD and Green second choices are going to go Conservative (which they're not), then Kahn looks nailed on to me.Richard_Nabavi said:
You are probably right, although the London mayoralty is not necessarily determined by national considerations.DavidL said:Kahn looks absolutely nailed on to me. Nearly half the electorate still Labour, the Tories not closing the gap, Brexit, a national government that is staggering forward, second preferences, I just don't see how it gets close.
Sadiq's not doing particularly well. His response on the knife-crime crisis in particular has been lacklustre at best, and he's mismanaged the TfL finances. But he's not doing so badly that he's in danger, unless the narrative changes substantially.
In fact PBers, what would you reckon the odds or implied percentage for "nailed on" is?
Against that, yes of course he has a massive structural advantage. He's clearly odds-on favourite. On checking the odds I was surprised to see I could get 1.41 on Betfair, which seemed excellent value so I took some. I'd say fair odds would be about 1.15 as things stand.0 -
Surely Root should declare right now0
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I think the constituency boundaries have been so disconnected from any sense of natural communities for so long that people don't care anymore. Quite a few have no idea what constituency they actually live in, anyway.philiph said:
I've been in Hitchin and Harpenden for years. That is two disjointed disconnected blobs in Hertfordshire. No reason except to make use of the leftover bits didn't fit anywhere.Andy_Cooke said:Having taken a look at the new boundaries, surely it's time to simply abandon any pretence that they all (or even most) signify any meaningful natural communities? Just start at Lands End and cut off constituencies at exactly the right number and name them 1,2,3,4,5 and so on.
I've moved from "The Leftover Bits Of South Oxfordshire That Don't Fit In With Any Cities Or Big Towns" to "A Long Random Squiggle From Drayton To Bicester That Skims Oxford Just Because"
Yes, well. I nearly managed to move to Henley, apparently. Somehow.
Oddly, it hasn't had a negative effect on anyone or damaged their feeling of belonging or self esteem, as far as I am aware.
To be fair to the Boundaries Commission, the idea of exactly 600 single-seat constituencies of very close electorates is always going to cause this, unless we just happen to have exactly 600 natural communities in the country and all of those with very similar populations.
The entire putative link between parliamentary constituencies and any natural community has long become a fiction; this just exaggerates something that was already strongly there. Thus the only-partly-tongue-in-cheek suggestion that they stop paying even lip service to it and just redraw from left to right based purely on population. Forget counties, regions, towns, whatever. If the border runs down a road in the middle of a village, so be it. As you say, few people care.
(Alternatively, have multi-member constituencies based on, say, counties. Change the number of members for a given county when populations change or the total number of MPs is supposed to change. Job done, actual community link sustained)0 -
Mr. Price/Mr. L, when would the definitive votes on boundaries occur?
Doubt the PLP will split at all, but if it does, that could be the key moment.0 -
It's not really disappearing as most of it goes into the new Finsbury Park and Stoke Newington seat.rottenborough said:Have we covered the loss of Jezza's seat under boundary review?
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MP for Canterbury is facing a vote of censure for her recent behaviour
#purgecontinues
https://twitter.com/Rajdeep1/status/10391675052212756490 -
Of course the bad polling in London means that the Tories must be done pretty well everywhere else if the national figures are accurate. All depends where the important marginals are.0
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Ken Clarke's is interesting. Seems to have been cut in half and the Clifton estate added.
Not that he'll stand again.0 -
At some point m/c Londoners will wake up and smell the coffee. A big switch to a centre party is probably more likely here than most other placesRichard_Nabavi said:
More seriously, does Khan really have only a 3% or 5% chance of losing? The election's not for nearly two years, he's lacklustre at best, TfL is in crisis, London knife crime is becoming a national scandal, and the entirely objective and non-partisan editor of the Standard seems to have decided to start laying in to him pretty seriously.Richard_Nabavi said:
I believe that the accepted definition of 'nailed on' is that you'll be happy to streak down Whitehall if you're wrong!rcs1000 said:
Oh come, "nailed on" does not mean 10,000-1.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'll take the 10,000 to 1 that you're offering!rcs1000 said:
Unless the LD and Green second choices are going to go Conservative (which they're not), then Kahn looks nailed on to me.Richard_Nabavi said:
You are probably right, although the London mayoralty is not necessarily determined by national considerations.DavidL said:Kahn looks absolutely nailed on to me. Nearly half the electorate still Labour, the Tories not closing the gap, Brexit, a national government that is staggering forward, second preferences, I just don't see how it gets close.
Sadiq's not doing particularly well. His response on the knife-crime crisis in particular has been lacklustre at best, and he's mismanaged the TfL finances. But he's not doing so badly that he's in danger, unless the narrative changes substantially.
In fact PBers, what would you reckon the odds or implied percentage for "nailed on" is?
Against that, yes of course he has a massive structural advantage. He's clearly odds-on favourite. On checking the odds I was surprised to see I could get 1.41 on Betfair, which seemed excellent value so I took some. I'd say fair odds would be about 1.15 as things stand.0 -
Yup - various alternatives suggested - my favourite would be Jerusalem NW.rottenborough said:Have we covered the loss of Jezza's seat under boundary review?
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Still no nailed on though.....Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 1000, nice graphic here on the subject:
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/978249963476893696
I would think "nailed on" must equate to a 40/1 chance of it not happening. So 50/1 chance of Obama becoming US President would be super-nailed on not going to happen.
Oh.0 -
Re-selection!oxfordsimon said:MP for Canterbury is facing a vote of censure for her recent behaviour
#purgecontinues
https://twitter.com/Rajdeep1/status/10391675052212756490 -
Another article that doesn't really align with the results of the poll.0
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Seems daft to go after a new MP with a majority of less than 200MarqueeMark said:
Re-selection!oxfordsimon said:MP for Canterbury is facing a vote of censure for her recent behaviour
#purgecontinues
https://twitter.com/Rajdeep1/status/10391675052212756490 -
Massacre India 2 for 3 Kholi out0
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England will be claiming the extra half tonight.
I'll eat a pizza with pineapple and banana on it if India pull this off.0 -
I have a lot of sympathy with Andy Cooke's view. Yes, the previous system was far too loose, with some seats almost three times the size of others. But the new system seems to be too tight, and means that other boundaries - rivers, settlements, councils, etc. - are completely ignored.
I would have gone for 650 seats, with each one +/- 10% of the average. I would also ensure that boundaries are updated on a five year cycle using the electoral roll, which would hopefully mean they wouldn't need periodic big changes.0 -
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I don't agree with the reduction.rcs1000 said:I have a lot of sympathy with Andy Cooke's view. Yes, the previous system was far too loose, with some seats almost three times the size of others. But the new system seems to be too tight, and means that other boundaries - rivers, settlements, councils, etc. - are completely ignored.
I would have gone for 650 seats, with each one +/- 10% of the average. I would also ensure that boundaries are updated on a five year cycle using the electoral roll, which would hopefully mean they wouldn't need periodic big changes.
I doubt it will pass to be honest.0 -
If it doesn't the mps will be seen as self serving - mind you, they are anywayrottenborough said:
I don't agree with the reduction.rcs1000 said:I have a lot of sympathy with Andy Cooke's view. Yes, the previous system was far too loose, with some seats almost three times the size of others. But the new system seems to be too tight, and means that other boundaries - rivers, settlements, councils, etc. - are completely ignored.
I would have gone for 650 seats, with each one +/- 10% of the average. I would also ensure that boundaries are updated on a five year cycle using the electoral roll, which would hopefully mean they wouldn't need periodic big changes.
I doubt it will pass to be honest.0 -
When do the boundaries actually get voted on ?0
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The reduction was to force every seat to be re-drawn based on the artificially pro-Conservative registers, as part of the blue team's gerrymandering programme.rottenborough said:
I don't agree with the reduction.rcs1000 said:I have a lot of sympathy with Andy Cooke's view. Yes, the previous system was far too loose, with some seats almost three times the size of others. But the new system seems to be too tight, and means that other boundaries - rivers, settlements, councils, etc. - are completely ignored.
I would have gone for 650 seats, with each one +/- 10% of the average. I would also ensure that boundaries are updated on a five year cycle using the electoral roll, which would hopefully mean they wouldn't need periodic big changes.
I doubt it will pass to be honest.
Now the interesting thing is that if the reduction does go ahead, it will be welcomed by Labour's entryist trots as forcing reselection in every seat.0 -
600 MPs for a nation of our size is perfectly adequate representation, it really is.rottenborough said:
I don't agree with the reduction.rcs1000 said:I have a lot of sympathy with Andy Cooke's view. Yes, the previous system was far too loose, with some seats almost three times the size of others. But the new system seems to be too tight, and means that other boundaries - rivers, settlements, councils, etc. - are completely ignored.
I would have gone for 650 seats, with each one +/- 10% of the average. I would also ensure that boundaries are updated on a five year cycle using the electoral roll, which would hopefully mean they wouldn't need periodic big changes.
I doubt it will pass to be honest.
We could manage perfectly well with 500 or even 450.
It would require a reduction in the number of ministers to reduce the payroll vote. But we are over-represented at the moment.0 -
I did once suggest (rather tongue-in-cheek, I must admit) a system of having each MPs vote weighted by the size of their electorates.rcs1000 said:I have a lot of sympathy with Andy Cooke's view. Yes, the previous system was far too loose, with some seats almost three times the size of others. But the new system seems to be too tight, and means that other boundaries - rivers, settlements, councils, etc. - are completely ignored.
I would have gone for 650 seats, with each one +/- 10% of the average. I would also ensure that boundaries are updated on a five year cycle using the electoral roll, which would hopefully mean they wouldn't need periodic big changes.
We could have had the previous system, and even loosened it further to align more closely with natural communities.
As a fringe benefit, it would encourage arithmetic among the whips.0 -
Will they need the half hour?TheScreamingEagles said:England will be claiming the extra half tonight.
I'll eat a pizza with pineapple and banana on it if India pull this off.0 -
You can see the ERG voting against the boundary changes in a fit of pique if they don't get exactly what they want from Brexit.0
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Looks dead as a dodo to me.0
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Mr. JohnL, were the boundaries not drawn up by a neutral body?0
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I’m perfectly happy with the principle of making consituencies equal. But I’m very opposed to reducing the number of MPs, which only serves to entrench the position of the larger parties. If we must have FPTP then the number of MPs should be increased.
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Not for months says HuffPo.Pulpstar said:When do the boundaries actually get voted on ?
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When's that story come out ?rottenborough said:
Last 5 minutes. Do those grade A shits in the ERG want Corbyn to be PM ?0 -
The trots don't have the ERG votes though.DecrepitJohnL said:
The reduction was to force every seat to be re-drawn based on the artificially pro-Conservative registers, as part of the blue team's gerrymandering programme.rottenborough said:
I don't agree with the reduction.rcs1000 said:I have a lot of sympathy with Andy Cooke's view. Yes, the previous system was far too loose, with some seats almost three times the size of others. But the new system seems to be too tight, and means that other boundaries - rivers, settlements, councils, etc. - are completely ignored.
I would have gone for 650 seats, with each one +/- 10% of the average. I would also ensure that boundaries are updated on a five year cycle using the electoral roll, which would hopefully mean they wouldn't need periodic big changes.
I doubt it will pass to be honest.
Now the interesting thing is that if the reduction does go ahead, it will be welcomed by Labour's entryist trots as forcing reselection in every seat.0 -
Perhaps we could reduce the number of FPTP seats to 500 or so and then make up the numbers with seats allocated by PR, a bit like the system of leveling seats. That would allow more natural looking constituencies but still give parties with broad but shallow support a chance.oxfordsimon said:
600 MPs for a nation of our size is perfectly adequate representation, it really is.rottenborough said:
I don't agree with the reduction.rcs1000 said:I have a lot of sympathy with Andy Cooke's view. Yes, the previous system was far too loose, with some seats almost three times the size of others. But the new system seems to be too tight, and means that other boundaries - rivers, settlements, councils, etc. - are completely ignored.
I would have gone for 650 seats, with each one +/- 10% of the average. I would also ensure that boundaries are updated on a five year cycle using the electoral roll, which would hopefully mean they wouldn't need periodic big changes.
I doubt it will pass to be honest.
We could manage perfectly well with 500 or even 450.
It would require a reduction in the number of ministers to reduce the payroll vote. But we are over-represented at the moment.0