politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why a united Ireland post Brexit is a real possibility
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Thanks, but I didn't find it at all easy to find to find my way around that website.ralphmalph said:
If you want to see the detail on the costs of REACH and it's effect then the CEFIC state of the EU chemicals industry is a good place.geoffw said:
Interesting report. Thanks for that.archer101au said:
https://www.politico.eu/article/european-commission-chequers-theresa-may-brexit-plan-would-save-uk-business-billions/Nigel_Foremain said:
Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.archer101au said:
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.Nigel_Foremain said:Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
Care to address the evidence provided?
http://www.cefic.org/Facts-and-Figures/
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Surely that is a problem of the local council boundaries? Hertsmere constituency was coterminous with Hertsmere Borough and now just has London Colney added.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
They still haven't sorted out the boundary between Welwyn Hatfield and Hertsmere. It runs higgldy piggldy through the top of Potters Bar when there's enough rural bits to give potentially clean boundaries. Looking at the comments, it was gratifying to see that someone agreed with my original comment on there that Hertsmere is a stupid constituency with no shared history or direct links.Tissue_Price said:0 -
He’s free to post.Alanbrooke said:
young EaglesTheScreamingEagles said:Lots of London YouGov polling here
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/sadiq-khans-popularity-sinks-after-long-summer-of-violent-crime-a3931666.html
havent seen Mr Tyndall around for a while - banned ? had a flounce ? won the lottery ?
Next time Robert is on PB mention it to him.
I think he has Richard’s email and might be better informed.0 -
Yes. Does the information commissioner know people's full addresses are being divulged?Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
One other thing that I've just noticed if you look at the comments.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
They still haven't sorted out the boundary between Welwyn Hatfield and Hertsmere. It runs higgldy piggldy through the top of Potters Bar when there's enough rural bits to give potentially clean boundaries. Looking at the comments, it was gratifying to see that someone agreed with my original comment on there that Hertsmere is a stupid constituency with no shared history or direct links.Tissue_Price said:
The full address is listed of anyone who's commented.0 -
Are you upsizing or downsizing from this one though ?Alistair said:Fun Quiz Answer Time:
So, On Friday I asked the question "What value do you think my house bought 5 years ago for £250,000 will be surveyed at"
Lots of you settled in for around £300,000ish pounds. The survey says: £335,000.
The property market is utterly mental. 85 Grand increase in 5 years is nonsense.0 -
thanksTheScreamingEagles said:
He’s free to post.Alanbrooke said:
young EaglesTheScreamingEagles said:Lots of London YouGov polling here
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/sadiq-khans-popularity-sinks-after-long-summer-of-violent-crime-a3931666.html
havent seen Mr Tyndall around for a while - banned ? had a flounce ? won the lottery ?
Next time Robert is on PB mention it to him.
I think he has Richard’s email and might be better informed.0 -
Nope the third is 100% correct, you can roll up to the UK get an NI number and immediately start to claim benefits. Why do you think I continually state that Brexit is due to Brown / Blair refusing to move to a contribution based welfare system....Richard_Nabavi said:
Looking at their website, they list three specific gripes:rottenborough said:
The Chequers whitepaper does not deliver Brexit.
We object specifically to the following aspects of the Chequers white paper:
- The common rule book allows ECJ overrule and severely hampers new free trade deals
- The backstop allows Northern Ireland to be separated from the rest of the UK
- Free movement of labour permits EU citizens to collect benefits whether in or out of work, without making UK contributions
The second is irrelevant if a deal is reached, and by definition irrelevant if a deal isn't reached. The third seems to be wrong. That leaves the first, which has some force, but is hardly a ditch to die on.0 -
http://fr.zone-secure.net/13451/451623/#page=1geoffw said:
Thanks, but I didn't find it at all easy to find to find my way around that website.ralphmalph said:
If you want to see the detail on the costs of REACH and it's effect then the CEFIC state of the EU chemicals industry is a good place.geoffw said:
Interesting report. Thanks for that.archer101au said:
https://www.politico.eu/article/european-commission-chequers-theresa-may-brexit-plan-would-save-uk-business-billions/Nigel_Foremain said:
Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.archer101au said:
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.Nigel_Foremain said:Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
Care to address the evidence provided?
http://www.cefic.org/Facts-and-Figures/
Click on the arrow on the right to move the slides.0 -
Wow, you did buy well. Congratulations. I will be interested to learn if you get + or - valuation on the sale. In a rapidly rising market it is usually + because the valuation is itself based on older transactions.Alistair said:Fun Quiz Answer Time:
So, On Friday I asked the question "What value do you think my house bought 5 years ago for £250,000 will be surveyed at"
Lots of you settled in for around £300,000ish pounds. The survey says: £335,000.
The property market is utterly mental. 85 Grand increase in 5 years is nonsense.0 -
I think Baker's analysis is more valid. On (2) Even if the EU accept Chequers, the EU are going to insist on the legal NI backstop and offer a non-binding paper on trade. In fact, legally the EU cannot commit to a binding position on trade (which makes you wonder why we are bothering to negotiate with them...). So Baker is right that there is every chance that the end outcome will be the EU accept Chequers, then later claim it doesn't solve NI and insist on the backstop.DavidL said:
That was my assessment which is why I would support a Chequers style agreement (through gritted teeth). In fact the 3rd is contrary to Chequers which indicates that there will be an end to free movement (whether the EU are minded to accept that "division of the 4 freedoms" or not is likely to be the biggest sticking point IMO).Richard_Nabavi said:
Looking at their website, they list three specific gripes:rottenborough said:
The Chequers whitepaper does not deliver Brexit.
We object specifically to the following aspects of the Chequers white paper:
- The common rule book allows ECJ overrule and severely hampers new free trade deals
- The backstop allows Northern Ireland to be separated from the rest of the UK
- Free movement of labour permits EU citizens to collect benefits whether in or out of work, without making UK contributions
The second is irrelevant if a deal is reached, and by definition irrelevant if a deal isn't reached. The third seems to be wrong. That leaves the first, which has some force, but is hardly a ditch to die on.
I think we could have done better but not from here and the alternatives available are worse. The incompetence of Davis and indeed Boris as well as May over the last 18 months carries a price.
May's mobility framework is undefined, but everyone seems to think that it will be FoM by another name.0 -
Is it because you blame Labour for every Tory calamity visited on the country?eek said:
Nope the third is 100% correct, you can roll up to the UK get an NI number and immediately start to claim benefits. Why do you think I continually state that Brexit is due to Brown / Blair refusing to move to a contribution based welfare system....Richard_Nabavi said:
Looking at their website, they list three specific gripes:rottenborough said:
The Chequers whitepaper does not deliver Brexit.
We object specifically to the following aspects of the Chequers white paper:
- The common rule book allows ECJ overrule and severely hampers new free trade deals
- The backstop allows Northern Ireland to be separated from the rest of the UK
- Free movement of labour permits EU citizens to collect benefits whether in or out of work, without making UK contributions
The second is irrelevant if a deal is reached, and by definition irrelevant if a deal isn't reached. The third seems to be wrong. That leaves the first, which has some force, but is hardly a ditch to die on.
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Oxford proposals are not what I was expecting.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
They still haven't sorted out the boundary between Welwyn Hatfield and Hertsmere. It runs higgldy piggldy through the top of Potters Bar when there's enough rural bits to give potentially clean boundaries. Looking at the comments, it was gratifying to see that someone agreed with my original comment on there that Hertsmere is a stupid constituency with no shared history or direct links.Tissue_Price said:
Oxford East - gone. Oxford West and Abingdon gone.
New seat of Oxford - which looks very safe Labour seat to me
New seat of Abingdon and Oxford North - maybe safer for Layla Moran than OxWAb is at present - but that is far from certain. It is a very strangely shaped constituency indeed.0 -
Anyone who downloads the boundary commission review should be put on a watchlist immediately0
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I don't think that is actually much of a shift. Smaller party shares were much depressed as a consequence of the vote.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I can't bothered to check but I am pretty certain Cook has got more runs in this test than in the other 4 put together.
I think if England can get another 100 in this coming session they should be looking to put the Indians in shortly after tea. They have scored at a good rate this morning (the partnership is averaging 3.9 runs an over despite the desperately slow going yesterday evening) and need to keep that up for the next 30 overs. With Buttler, Stokes and Bairstow being let loose that really shouldn't be difficult.
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Maybe he could try for a new seat in the Harrow/Enfield areaScott_P said: 0 -
That should be what happens but Root's captaincy frequently isn't to the same standard as his batting.DavidL said:
I think if England can get another 100 in this coming session they should be looking to put the Indians in shortly after tea.
I think he'll put India in with ~ 40 minutes to go (~ 5:50) when he might have declared at say 5.
Edit: If England get a move on, he should probably declare once the lead hits 400.0 -
I think he'll wait until Cook at least is out0
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The Tories screwed up by putting a referendum in their manifesto and destroying the Lib Dems who they hoped would continue with them and veto the vote.DecrepitJohnL said:
Is it because you blame Labour for every Tory calamity visited on the country?eek said:
Nope the third is 100% correct, you can roll up to the UK get an NI number and immediately start to claim benefits. Why do you think I continually state that Brexit is due to Brown / Blair refusing to move to a contribution based welfare system....Richard_Nabavi said:
Looking at their website, they list three specific gripes:rottenborough said:
The Chequers whitepaper does not deliver Brexit.
We object specifically to the following aspects of the Chequers white paper:
- The common rule book allows ECJ overrule and severely hampers new free trade deals
- The backstop allows Northern Ireland to be separated from the rest of the UK
- Free movement of labour permits EU citizens to collect benefits whether in or out of work, without making UK contributions
The second is irrelevant if a deal is reached, and by definition irrelevant if a deal isn't reached. The third seems to be wrong. That leaves the first, which has some force, but is hardly a ditch to die on.
The latter is more nuanced but working tax credits attract a type of immigrant I don't see in Denmark / Austria (picking places I've worked in over the past few years)...
Equally I can fully understand why Brown / Blair didn't introduce contribution based welfare when it was suggested to do so - sadly (for obvious reasons) Labour is the only party who could do so and they dropped the ball here...0 -
Is it one of their accursed fill-in-the-blank PDFs? Last time I had an issue like that, I solved it by the desperately tedious procedure of starting over with a new file and manually retyping everything into that.Richard_Nabavi said:Completely off topic: Does anyone have the email address of a sentient being in HMRC's software team? We're trying to file my wife's tax return and there is a server-end error every single time at the final stage (when she confirms that it's all correct and wants to submit it). Needless to say the helpdesks haven't the faintest clue and ignore the actual content of what we tell them. Anyone got any ideas of how to escalate it?
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They almost certainly have enough runs already. It is just a question of psychologically crushing them and leaving them without hope now and that is a legitimate tactic. For the first time in this excellent series the Indian bowlers are looking weary and short of ideas. Their seamers have been superb.Pulpstar said:
That should be what happens but Root's captaincy frequently isn't to the same standard as his batting.DavidL said:
I think if England can get another 100 in this coming session they should be looking to put the Indians in shortly after tea.
I think he'll put India in with ~ 40 minutes to go (~ 5:50) when he might have declared at say 5.0 -
We don't often see 7% swingsTheWhiteRabbit said:
I don't think that is actually much of a shift. Smaller party shares were much depressed as a consequence of the vote.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Cook and Root should push on for double-centuries before declaring.DavidL said:
They almost certainly have enough runs already. It is just a question of psychologically crushing them and leaving them without hope now and that is a legitimate tactic. For the first time in this excellent series the Indian bowlers are looking weary and short of ideas. Their seamers have been superb.Pulpstar said:
That should be what happens but Root's captaincy frequently isn't to the same standard as his batting.DavidL said:
I think if England can get another 100 in this coming session they should be looking to put the Indians in shortly after tea.
I think he'll put India in with ~ 40 minutes to go (~ 5:50) when he might have declared at say 5.0 -
Key word should. If you bother to read the full article he goes on to say that politics could interfere ... but you already knew that so why are you being deceptive?TheScreamingEagles said:
“The free trade agreement that we will have to do with the European Union should be one of the easiest in human history.Philip_Thompson said:
[Citation Needed]TheScreamingEagles said:Well you all know what I think about the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox
https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1039062449524232193
“We are already beginning with zero tariffs, and we are already beginning at the point of maximal regulatory equivalence, as it is called. In other words, our rules and our laws are exactly the same.”0 -
The Broxtowe proposals are unchanged, and would lead to most of Anna Soubry's seat being divided into two with bits added on from Nottingham and Hucknall, both of which would be less Tory than the current one because of the additions. Nottingham West and Beeston would be Labour in most years (Beeston has zero Tory borough councillors); Broxtowe & Hucknall pretty marginal and presumably the one AS would try to hold.DecrepitJohnL said:
Prediction: Labour MPs whose seats are abolished will resign as a protest against Corbyn or antisemitism or Corbyn's antisemitism, on a point of principle.Tissue_Price said:twitter.com/BCE2018/status/1039117896729997312
Conservative MPs will resign as a protest against Chequers or for a second referendum, on a point of principle.
ETA the new boundaries report is at https://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Final-recommendations-report.pdf
As for JC's constituency being abolished, I suspect he would not have difficulty in getting selection as the Labour candidate anywhere he chose.0 -
India would settle for that !Philip_Thompson said:
Cook and Root should push on for double-centuries before declaring.DavidL said:
They almost certainly have enough runs already. It is just a question of psychologically crushing them and leaving them without hope now and that is a legitimate tactic. For the first time in this excellent series the Indian bowlers are looking weary and short of ideas. Their seamers have been superb.Pulpstar said:
That should be what happens but Root's captaincy frequently isn't to the same standard as his batting.DavidL said:
I think if England can get another 100 in this coming session they should be looking to put the Indians in shortly after tea.
I think he'll put India in with ~ 40 minutes to go (~ 5:50) when he might have declared at say 5.0 -
That's a touch too close to home for me. Especially Enfieldoxfordsimon said:0 -
Not sure, they'll go in totally demoralised, with nothing to play for and with a 500-run lead England could have an incredibly aggressive field for the rest of the Test.Pulpstar said:
India would settle for that !Philip_Thompson said:
Cook and Root should push on for double-centuries before declaring.DavidL said:
They almost certainly have enough runs already. It is just a question of psychologically crushing them and leaving them without hope now and that is a legitimate tactic. For the first time in this excellent series the Indian bowlers are looking weary and short of ideas. Their seamers have been superb.Pulpstar said:
That should be what happens but Root's captaincy frequently isn't to the same standard as his batting.DavidL said:
I think if England can get another 100 in this coming session they should be looking to put the Indians in shortly after tea.
I think he'll put India in with ~ 40 minutes to go (~ 5:50) when he might have declared at say 5.0 -
100 for Root! Excellent way to finish a pretty rubbish summer for him personally.0
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My point is, I don't think it is one. I think it's a trick of the figures and the question being asked.logical_song said:
We don't often see 7% swingsTheWhiteRabbit said:
I don't think that is actually much of a shift. Smaller party shares were much depressed as a consequence of the vote.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
It is. On balance I think it's probably good for Layla, but there's not much in it. Kirtlington being in Abingdon & Oxford North is arguably more sensible than it being in Henley, at any rate...oxfordsimon said:
Oxford proposals are not what I was expecting.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
They still haven't sorted out the boundary between Welwyn Hatfield and Hertsmere. It runs higgldy piggldy through the top of Potters Bar when there's enough rural bits to give potentially clean boundaries. Looking at the comments, it was gratifying to see that someone agreed with my original comment on there that Hertsmere is a stupid constituency with no shared history or direct links.Tissue_Price said:
Oxford East - gone. Oxford West and Abingdon gone.
New seat of Oxford - which looks very safe Labour seat to me
New seat of Abingdon and Oxford North - maybe safer for Layla Moran than OxWAb is at present - but that is far from certain. It is a very strangely shaped constituency indeed.0 -
Barnet?NickPalmer said:
The Broxtowe proposals are unchanged, and would lead to most of Anna Soubry's seat being divided into two with bits added on from Nottingham and Hucknall, both of which would be less Tory than the current one because of the additions. Nottingham West and Beeston would be Labour in most years (Beeston has zero Tory borough councillors); Broxtowe & Hucknall pretty marginal and presumably the one AS would try to hold.DecrepitJohnL said:
Prediction: Labour MPs whose seats are abolished will resign as a protest against Corbyn or antisemitism or Corbyn's antisemitism, on a point of principle.Tissue_Price said:twitter.com/BCE2018/status/1039117896729997312
Conservative MPs will resign as a protest against Chequers or for a second referendum, on a point of principle.
ETA the new boundaries report is at https://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Final-recommendations-report.pdf
As for JC's constituency being abolished, I suspect he would not have difficulty in getting selection as the Labour candidate anywhere he chose.0 -
Not the Enfield bit - just the news that Corbyn will have to spend energy and time being selected for a new seat.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
That's a touch too close to home for me. Especially Enfieldoxfordsimon said:0 -
Surviving 93 overs is easier than surviving 110 !Philip_Thompson said:
Not sure, they'll go in totally demoralised, with nothing to play for and with a 500-run lead England could have an incredibly aggressive field for the rest of the Test.Pulpstar said:
India would settle for that !Philip_Thompson said:
Cook and Root should push on for double-centuries before declaring.DavidL said:
They almost certainly have enough runs already. It is just a question of psychologically crushing them and leaving them without hope now and that is a legitimate tactic. For the first time in this excellent series the Indian bowlers are looking weary and short of ideas. Their seamers have been superb.Pulpstar said:
That should be what happens but Root's captaincy frequently isn't to the same standard as his batting.DavidL said:
I think if England can get another 100 in this coming session they should be looking to put the Indians in shortly after tea.
I think he'll put India in with ~ 40 minutes to go (~ 5:50) when he might have declared at say 5.0 -
We should be able to back ourselves to get 10 wickets in 93 overs.Pulpstar said:
Surviving 93 overs is easier than surviving 110 !Philip_Thompson said:
Not sure, they'll go in totally demoralised, with nothing to play for and with a 500-run lead England could have an incredibly aggressive field for the rest of the Test.Pulpstar said:
India would settle for that !Philip_Thompson said:
Cook and Root should push on for double-centuries before declaring.DavidL said:
They almost certainly have enough runs already. It is just a question of psychologically crushing them and leaving them without hope now and that is a legitimate tactic. For the first time in this excellent series the Indian bowlers are looking weary and short of ideas. Their seamers have been superb.Pulpstar said:
That should be what happens but Root's captaincy frequently isn't to the same standard as his batting.DavidL said:
I think if England can get another 100 in this coming session they should be looking to put the Indians in shortly after tea.
I think he'll put India in with ~ 40 minutes to go (~ 5:50) when he might have declared at say 5.0 -
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Conservatives in Milton Keynes will be toasting the Boundary Commission.
2 Tory held marginals.
The numbers and regional boundaries mean that 2 wards have to be thrown out of MK into Buckingham. Boundary Commission proposed a Lab/Con marginal and a Con ward. Have now changed it (back) to the Lab/Con marginal and a Labour stronghold (Wolverton) This will make holding Milton Keynes South *much* easier next time for the Tories.0 -
I hear Barrow in Furness needs a new candidate with keen interest in nuclear issues?TheScreamingEagles said:
Barnet?NickPalmer said:
The Broxtowe proposals are unchanged, and would lead to most of Anna Soubry's seat being divided into two with bits added on from Nottingham and Hucknall, both of which would be less Tory than the current one because of the additions. Nottingham West and Beeston would be Labour in most years (Beeston has zero Tory borough councillors); Broxtowe & Hucknall pretty marginal and presumably the one AS would try to hold.DecrepitJohnL said:
Prediction: Labour MPs whose seats are abolished will resign as a protest against Corbyn or antisemitism or Corbyn's antisemitism, on a point of principle.Tissue_Price said:twitter.com/BCE2018/status/1039117896729997312
Conservative MPs will resign as a protest against Chequers or for a second referendum, on a point of principle.
ETA the new boundaries report is at https://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Final-recommendations-report.pdf
As for JC's constituency being abolished, I suspect he would not have difficulty in getting selection as the Labour candidate anywhere he chose.0 -
Oi! You can stop all this moving him in next door to me stuffTheScreamingEagles said:
Barnet?NickPalmer said:
The Broxtowe proposals are unchanged, and would lead to most of Anna Soubry's seat being divided into two with bits added on from Nottingham and Hucknall, both of which would be less Tory than the current one because of the additions. Nottingham West and Beeston would be Labour in most years (Beeston has zero Tory borough councillors); Broxtowe & Hucknall pretty marginal and presumably the one AS would try to hold.DecrepitJohnL said:
Prediction: Labour MPs whose seats are abolished will resign as a protest against Corbyn or antisemitism or Corbyn's antisemitism, on a point of principle.Tissue_Price said:twitter.com/BCE2018/status/1039117896729997312
Conservative MPs will resign as a protest against Chequers or for a second referendum, on a point of principle.
ETA the new boundaries report is at https://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Final-recommendations-report.pdf
As for JC's constituency being abolished, I suspect he would not have difficulty in getting selection as the Labour candidate anywhere he chose.0 -
That is quite a poor showChelyabinsk said:3 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece entitled 'Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling'. It explains how 'people are generally bad' at 'explaining how they decide their votes' and 'entertaining counterfactuals'. This fits with the generally accepted principles of political polling (e.g. 'polls asking about how people would vote in hypothetical situations aren’t particularly useful', Anthony Wells)
10 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece explaining how a hypothetical poll 'clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland', and supports it with a second hypothetical poll showing 'more than one in four in Northern Ireland claiming that they would at least consider abandoning support for the Union in favour of a united Ireland post Brexit'.0 -
Fudge on standby.Scott_P said:0 -
PB publishes different pieces by differing contributors.Chelyabinsk said:3 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece entitled 'Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling'. It explains how 'people are generally bad' at 'explaining how they decide their votes' and 'entertaining counterfactuals'. This fits with the generally accepted principles of political polling (e.g. 'polls asking about how people would vote in hypothetical situations aren’t particularly useful', Anthony Wells)
10 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece explaining how a hypothetical poll 'clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland', and supports it with a second hypothetical poll showing 'more than one in four in Northern Ireland claiming that they would at least consider abandoning support for the Union in favour of a united Ireland post Brexit'.0 -
But two different contributors....JohnRussell said:
That is quite a poor showChelyabinsk said:3 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece entitled 'Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling'. It explains how 'people are generally bad' at 'explaining how they decide their votes' and 'entertaining counterfactuals'. This fits with the generally accepted principles of political polling (e.g. 'polls asking about how people would vote in hypothetical situations aren’t particularly useful', Anthony Wells)
10 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece explaining how a hypothetical poll 'clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland', and supports it with a second hypothetical poll showing 'more than one in four in Northern Ireland claiming that they would at least consider abandoning support for the Union in favour of a united Ireland post Brexit'.0 -
It isn't.JohnRussell said:
That is quite a poor showChelyabinsk said:3 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece entitled 'Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling'. It explains how 'people are generally bad' at 'explaining how they decide their votes' and 'entertaining counterfactuals'. This fits with the generally accepted principles of political polling (e.g. 'polls asking about how people would vote in hypothetical situations aren’t particularly useful', Anthony Wells)
10 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece explaining how a hypothetical poll 'clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland', and supports it with a second hypothetical poll showing 'more than one in four in Northern Ireland claiming that they would at least consider abandoning support for the Union in favour of a united Ireland post Brexit'.
1) They were written by different authors, Mike gives us the luxury to write what we like. There's no settled PB view.
2) Keiran's a very respected pollster, as is Ariel Edwards-Levy, whose tweet thread the first article is based on, is the Polling Editor of the Huffington Post.
3) Chelyabinsk missed out Keiran's quote which was ' So although this poll clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland, the scale of that shift and how a border poll plays out in practice is unclear.'0 -
Glad to see the commission doing their job to ensure a Tory majority at the next GE.tpfkar said:Conservatives in Milton Keynes will be toasting the Boundary Commission.
2 Tory held marginals.
The numbers and regional boundaries mean that 2 wards have to be thrown out of MK into Buckingham. Boundary Commission proposed a Lab/Con marginal and a Con ward. Have now changed it (back) to the Lab/Con marginal and a Labour stronghold (Wolverton) This will make holding Milton Keynes South *much* easier next time for the Tories.
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Plus I am sure that I have read some comments below the line on PB that were not entirely respectful of the thread header. It's a free country and a free site for which we should be grateful.TheScreamingEagles said:
It isn't.JohnRussell said:
That is quite a poor showChelyabinsk said:3 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece entitled 'Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling'. It explains how 'people are generally bad' at 'explaining how they decide their votes' and 'entertaining counterfactuals'. This fits with the generally accepted principles of political polling (e.g. 'polls asking about how people would vote in hypothetical situations aren’t particularly useful', Anthony Wells)
10 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece explaining how a hypothetical poll 'clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland', and supports it with a second hypothetical poll showing 'more than one in four in Northern Ireland claiming that they would at least consider abandoning support for the Union in favour of a united Ireland post Brexit'.
1) They were written by different authors, Mike gives us the luxury to write what we like. There's no settled PB view.
2) Keiran's a very respected pollster, as is Ariel Edwards-Levy, whose tweet thread the first article is based on, is the Polling Editor of the Huffington Post.
3) Chelyabinsk missed out Keiran's quote which was ' So although this poll clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland, the scale of that shift and how a border poll plays out in practice is unclear.'0 -
He'll bring Seumas, Diane, John, Owen et al with him.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Oi! You can stop all this moving him in next door to me stuffTheScreamingEagles said:
Barnet?NickPalmer said:
The Broxtowe proposals are unchanged, and would lead to most of Anna Soubry's seat being divided into two with bits added on from Nottingham and Hucknall, both of which would be less Tory than the current one because of the additions. Nottingham West and Beeston would be Labour in most years (Beeston has zero Tory borough councillors); Broxtowe & Hucknall pretty marginal and presumably the one AS would try to hold.DecrepitJohnL said:
Prediction: Labour MPs whose seats are abolished will resign as a protest against Corbyn or antisemitism or Corbyn's antisemitism, on a point of principle.Tissue_Price said:twitter.com/BCE2018/status/1039117896729997312
Conservative MPs will resign as a protest against Chequers or for a second referendum, on a point of principle.
ETA the new boundaries report is at https://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Final-recommendations-report.pdf
As for JC's constituency being abolished, I suspect he would not have difficulty in getting selection as the Labour candidate anywhere he chose.
You'll love it.0 -
I can't help feeling that the first sentence should be rephrased. Sadiq might not be the greatest of mayors, but even his sharpest critics don't claim that he's personally been engaged in a summer of violent crime!TheScreamingEagles said:Lots of London YouGov polling here
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/sadiq-khans-popularity-sinks-after-long-summer-of-violent-crime-a3931666.html0 -
His crew won't spend any time in his constituency - they will be too busy trying to defeat the enemy. Other Labour MPs...TheScreamingEagles said:
He'll bring Seumas, Diane, John, Owen et al with him.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Oi! You can stop all this moving him in next door to me stuffTheScreamingEagles said:
Barnet?NickPalmer said:
The Broxtowe proposals are unchanged, and would lead to most of Anna Soubry's seat being divided into two with bits added on from Nottingham and Hucknall, both of which would be less Tory than the current one because of the additions. Nottingham West and Beeston would be Labour in most years (Beeston has zero Tory borough councillors); Broxtowe & Hucknall pretty marginal and presumably the one AS would try to hold.DecrepitJohnL said:
Prediction: Labour MPs whose seats are abolished will resign as a protest against Corbyn or antisemitism or Corbyn's antisemitism, on a point of principle.Tissue_Price said:twitter.com/BCE2018/status/1039117896729997312
Conservative MPs will resign as a protest against Chequers or for a second referendum, on a point of principle.
ETA the new boundaries report is at https://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Final-recommendations-report.pdf
As for JC's constituency being abolished, I suspect he would not have difficulty in getting selection as the Labour candidate anywhere he chose.
You'll love it.0 -
"It isn't."TheScreamingEagles said:
It isn't.JohnRussell said:
That is quite a poor showChelyabinsk said:3 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece entitled 'Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling'. It explains how 'people are generally bad' at 'explaining how they decide their votes' and 'entertaining counterfactuals'. This fits with the generally accepted principles of political polling (e.g. 'polls asking about how people would vote in hypothetical situations aren’t particularly useful', Anthony Wells)
10 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece explaining how a hypothetical poll 'clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland', and supports it with a second hypothetical poll showing 'more than one in four in Northern Ireland claiming that they would at least consider abandoning support for the Union in favour of a united Ireland post Brexit'.
1) They were written by different authors, Mike gives us the luxury to write what we like. There's no settled PB view.
2) Keiran's a very respected pollster, as is Ariel Edwards-Levy, whose tweet thread the first article is based on, is the Polling Editor of the Huffington Post.
3) Chelyabinsk missed out Keiran's quote which was ' So although this poll clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland, the scale of that shift and how a border poll plays out in practice is unclear.'
Do we have the luxury to think what we like, with no settled view?0 -
Time to turn the M25 into a moatTheScreamingEagles said:
He'll bring Seumas, Diane, John, Owen et al with him.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Oi! You can stop all this moving him in next door to me stuffTheScreamingEagles said:
Barnet?NickPalmer said:
The Broxtowe proposals are unchanged, and would lead to most of Anna Soubry's seat being divided into two with bits added on from Nottingham and Hucknall, both of which would be less Tory than the current one because of the additions. Nottingham West and Beeston would be Labour in most years (Beeston has zero Tory borough councillors); Broxtowe & Hucknall pretty marginal and presumably the one AS would try to hold.DecrepitJohnL said:
Prediction: Labour MPs whose seats are abolished will resign as a protest against Corbyn or antisemitism or Corbyn's antisemitism, on a point of principle.Tissue_Price said:twitter.com/BCE2018/status/1039117896729997312
Conservative MPs will resign as a protest against Chequers or for a second referendum, on a point of principle.
ETA the new boundaries report is at https://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Final-recommendations-report.pdf
As for JC's constituency being abolished, I suspect he would not have difficulty in getting selection as the Labour candidate anywhere he chose.
You'll love it.0 -
This is why the Oxford Comma is important.Richard_Nabavi said:
I can't help feeling that the first sentence should be rephrased. Sadiq might not be the greatest of mayors, but even his sharpest critics don't claim that he's personally been engaged in a summer of violent crime!TheScreamingEagles said:Lots of London YouGov polling here
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/sadiq-khans-popularity-sinks-after-long-summer-of-violent-crime-a3931666.html0 -
Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaverAlanbrooke said:
titNigel_Foremain said:
Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.archer101au said:
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.Nigel_Foremain said:Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....0 -
titNigel_Foremain said:
Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaverAlanbrooke said:
titNigel_Foremain said:
Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.archer101au said:
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.Nigel_Foremain said:Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....0 -
Rook/Cook partnership inching toward 250. Aside from my personal irritation with the lack of slogging at this stage, it must be demoralising for a field to face the same pair for so very long.0
-
Eric pickles gave advice to conservative councillors. How a crisis can be used to do things you wouldn’t normally think possible to do. Ie. Local government spending cuts would allow you to ditch the enormous amount of dead wood floating around your council.eek said:
The Tories screwed up by putting a referendum in their manifesto and destroying the Lib Dems who they hoped would continue with them and veto the vote.DecrepitJohnL said:
Is it because you blame Labour for every Tory calamity visited on the country?eek said:
Nope the third is 100% correct, you can roll up to the UK get an NI number and immediately start to claim benefits. Why do you think I continually state that Brexit is due to Brown / Blair refusing to move to a contribution based welfare system....Richard_Nabavi said:
Looking at their website, they list three specific gripes:rottenborough said:
The Chequers whitepaper does not deliver Brexit.
We object specifically to the following aspects of the Chequers white paper:
- The common rule book allows ECJ overrule and severely hampers new free trade deals
- The backstop allows Northern Ireland to be separated from the rest of the UK
- Free movement of labour permits EU citizens to collect benefits whether in or out of work, without making UK contributions
The second is irrelevant if a deal is reached, and by definition irrelevant if a deal isn't reached. The third seems to be wrong. That leaves the first, which has some force, but is hardly a ditch to die on.
The latter is more nuanced but working tax credits attract a type of immigrant I don't see in Denmark / Austria (picking places I've worked in over the past few years)...
Equally I can fully understand why Brown / Blair didn't introduce contribution based welfare when it was suggested to do so - sadly (for obvious reasons) Labour is the only party who could do so and they dropped the ball here...
With this Brexit would be an ideal means for the government to make those kind of welfare changes. Taking ourself out of the single market is nothing more than sodding self harm. We have an immigration issue that has pushed up numbers and flatlined wages at the bottom end, along with the fact that many people don’t like the changes that have happened in their area of other areas.
How we manage our welfare system is up to us. Stay in single market and create contributions based welfare eligibility. Enforce rules on free movement of people and actively remove those here for more than threee months without a means to support themselves (as is allowed).
0 -
Verhofstedt offers to team up with Macron in the Euro elections
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/liberale-im-eu-parlament-fuer-allianz-mit-macrons-partei-15780672.html0 -
Well it seems a little poor to me that instead of saying "Remember last weeks header about hypothetical polling..." a lot of people are commenting along the lines of "See I told you Brexit would lead to a united Ireland..." with no reference to the previous header. Chelyabinsk made a good spot in my opinion.DavidL said:
Plus I am sure that I have read some comments below the line on PB that were not entirely respectful of the thread header. It's a free country and a free site for which we should be grateful.TheScreamingEagles said:
It isn't.JohnRussell said:
That is quite a poor showChelyabinsk said:3 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece entitled 'Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling'. It explains how 'people are generally bad' at 'explaining how they decide their votes' and 'entertaining counterfactuals'. This fits with the generally accepted principles of political polling (e.g. 'polls asking about how people would vote in hypothetical situations aren’t particularly useful', Anthony Wells)
10 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece explaining how a hypothetical poll 'clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland', and supports it with a second hypothetical poll showing 'more than one in four in Northern Ireland claiming that they would at least consider abandoning support for the Union in favour of a united Ireland post Brexit'.
1) They were written by different authors, Mike gives us the luxury to write what we like. There's no settled PB view.
2) Keiran's a very respected pollster, as is Ariel Edwards-Levy, whose tweet thread the first article is based on, is the Polling Editor of the Huffington Post.
3) Chelyabinsk missed out Keiran's quote which was ' So although this poll clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland, the scale of that shift and how a border poll plays out in practice is unclear.'0 -
Plus the run rate of this partnership has just gone over 4 an over. They are hardly taking time out of the game.Anorak said:Rook/Cook partnership inching toward 250. Aside from my personal irritation with the lack of slogging at this stage, it must be demoralising for a field to face the same pair for so very long.
0 -
You've covered the upper part of the body with the last two responses. I suspect the third response will stray below the waist.Alanbrooke said:
titNigel_Foremain said:
Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaverAlanbrooke said:
titNigel_Foremain said:
Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.archer101au said:
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.Nigel_Foremain said:Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....0 -
I am more concerned Brexit will give underperforming schools, hospitals, and councils an opportunity to be s***.notme said:
Eric pickles gave advice to conservative councillors. How a crisis can be used to do things you wouldn’t normally think possible to do. Ie. Local government spending cuts would allow you to ditch the enormous amount of dead wood floating around your council.eek said:
The Tories screwed up by putting a referendum in their manifesto and destroying the Lib Dems who they hoped would continue with them and veto the vote.DecrepitJohnL said:
Is it because you blame Labour for every Tory calamity visited on the country?eek said:
Nope the third is 100% correct, you can roll up to the UK get an NI number and immediately start to claim benefits. Why do you think I continually state that Brexit is due to Brown / Blair refusing to move to a contribution based welfare system....Richard_Nabavi said:
Looking at their website, they list three specific gripes:rottenborough said:
The second is irrelevant if a deal is reached, and by definition irrelevant if a deal isn't reached. The third seems to be wrong. That leaves the first, which has some force, but is hardly a ditch to die on.
The latter is more nuanced but working tax credits attract a type of immigrant I don't see in Denmark / Austria (picking places I've worked in over the past few years)...
Equally I can fully understand why Brown / Blair didn't introduce contribution based welfare when it was suggested to do so - sadly (for obvious reasons) Labour is the only party who could do so and they dropped the ball here...
With this Brexit would be an ideal means for the government to make those kind of welfare changes. Taking ourself out of the single market is nothing more than sodding self harm. We have an immigration issue that has pushed up numbers and flatlined wages at the bottom end, along with the fact that many people don’t like the changes that have happened in their area of other areas.
How we manage our welfare system is up to us. Stay in single market and create contributions based welfare eligibility. Enforce rules on free movement of people and actively remove those here for more than threee months without a means to support themselves (as is allowed).0 -
Totally. Eu is built on fudge.Big_G_NorthWales said:
0 -
True. I'm going to guess there'll be a declaration at 4:30-5:00.DavidL said:
Plus the run rate of this partnership has just gone over 4 an over. They are hardly taking time out of the game.Anorak said:Rook/Cook partnership inching toward 250. Aside from my personal irritation with the lack of slogging at this stage, it must be demoralising for a field to face the same pair for so very long.
0 -
An excuse to be maybe.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I am more concerned Brexit will give underperforming schools, hospitals, and councils an opportunity to be s***.notme said:
Eric pickles gave advice to conservative councillors. How a crisis can be used to do things you wouldn’t normally think possible to do. Ie. Local government spending cuts would allow you to ditch the enormous amount of dead wood floating around your council.eek said:
The Tories screwed up by putting a referendum in their manifesto and destroying the Lib Dems who they hoped would continue with them and veto the vote.DecrepitJohnL said:
Is it because you blame Labour for every Tory calamity visited on the country?eek said:
Nope the third is 100% correct, you can roll up to the UK get an NI number and immediately start to claim benefits. Why do you think I continually state that Brexit is due to Brown / Blair refusing to move to a contribution based welfare system....Richard_Nabavi said:
Looking at their website, they list three specific gripes:rottenborough said:
The second is irrelevant if a deal is reached, and by definition irrelevant if a deal isn't reached. The third seems to be wrong. That leaves the first, which has some force, but is hardly a ditch to die on.
The latter is more nuanced but working tax credits attract a type of immigrant I don't see in Denmark / Austria (picking places I've worked in over the past few years)...
Equally I can fully understand why Brown / Blair didn't introduce contribution based welfare when it was suggested to do so - sadly (for obvious reasons) Labour is the only party who could do so and they dropped the ball here...
With this Brexit would be an ideal means for the government to make those kind of welfare changes. Taking ourself out of the single market is nothing more than sodding self harm. We have an immigration issue that has pushed up numbers and flatlined wages at the bottom end, along with the fact that many people don’t like the changes that have happened in their area of other areas.
How we manage our welfare system is up to us. Stay in single market and create contributions based welfare eligibility. Enforce rules on free movement of people and actively remove those here for more than threee months without a means to support themselves (as is allowed).0 -
You can think what you like.JohnRussell said:
"It isn't."TheScreamingEagles said:
It isn't.JohnRussell said:
That is quite a poor showChelyabinsk said:3 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece entitled 'Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling'. It explains how 'people are generally bad' at 'explaining how they decide their votes' and 'entertaining counterfactuals'. This fits with the generally accepted principles of political polling (e.g. 'polls asking about how people would vote in hypothetical situations aren’t particularly useful', Anthony Wells)
10 September 2018: Politicalbetting publishes a piece explaining how a hypothetical poll 'clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland', and supports it with a second hypothetical poll showing 'more than one in four in Northern Ireland claiming that they would at least consider abandoning support for the Union in favour of a united Ireland post Brexit'.
1) They were written by different authors, Mike gives us the luxury to write what we like. There's no settled PB view.
2) Keiran's a very respected pollster, as is Ariel Edwards-Levy, whose tweet thread the first article is based on, is the Polling Editor of the Huffington Post.
3) Chelyabinsk missed out Keiran's quote which was ' So although this poll clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland, the scale of that shift and how a border poll plays out in practice is unclear.'
Do we have the luxury to think what we like, with no settled view?0 -
Excellent again. I have changed my nickname for you. You are no longer Comical Ali. You will now for ever be known as Alan Two Tits BrookeAlanbrooke said:
titNigel_Foremain said:
Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaverAlanbrooke said:
titNigel_Foremain said:
Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.archer101au said:
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.Nigel_Foremain said:Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....0 -
Good afternoon, comrades.0
-
That is presumably because you disagree with it. As you are free to do. And Chelyabinsk is entitled to point out the inconsistency. The only times I have been disappointed with PB is when argumentative if somewhat intemperate voices have been banned. We have lost some good contributors that way over the years. Disagreements are what keep this site alive.JohnRussell said:
Well it seems a little poor to me that instead of saying "Remember last weeks header about hypothetical polling..." a lot of people are commenting along the lines of "See I told you Brexit would lead to a united Ireland..." with no reference to the previous header. Chelyabinsk made a good spot in my opinion.DavidL said:
Plus I am sure that I have read some comments below the line on PB that were not entirely respectful of the thread header. It's a free country and a free site for which we should be grateful.TheScreamingEagles said:
It isn't.JohnRussell said:
That is quite a poor showChelyabinsk said:
1) They were written by different authors, Mike gives us the luxury to write what we like. There's no settled PB view.
2) Keiran's a very respected pollster, as is Ariel Edwards-Levy, whose tweet thread the first article is based on, is the Polling Editor of the Huffington Post.
3) Chelyabinsk missed out Keiran's quote which was ' So although this poll clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland, the scale of that shift and how a border poll plays out in practice is unclear.'0 -
why ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
it has been obvious for quite some time a deal will be done. It's only in the ramped up environment here that people have missed the cues.
But now standby for months of partisan biuckering of its the wrong deal.0 -
Macron says "Non."Alanbrooke said:
Verhofstedt offers to team up with Macron in the Euro elections
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/liberale-im-eu-parlament-fuer-allianz-mit-macrons-partei-15780672.html
https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-elections-2019/news/macrons-aide-were-not-discussing-alliance-with-verhofstadt/0 -
I have you down as a dog groomerNigel_Foremain said:
Excellent again. I have changed my nickname for you. You are no longer Comical Ali. You will now for ever be known as Alan Two Tits BrookeAlanbrooke said:
titNigel_Foremain said:
Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaverAlanbrooke said:
titNigel_Foremain said:
Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.archer101au said:
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.Nigel_Foremain said:Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
but not in a healthy way0 -
Sorry that was rather my pointnotme said:
An excuse to be maybe.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I am more concerned Brexit will give underperforming schools, hospitals, and councils an opportunity to be s***.notme said:
Eric pickles gave advice to conservative councillors. How a crisis can be used to do things you wouldn’t normally think possible to do. Ie. Local government spending cuts would allow you to ditch the enormous amount of dead wood floating around your council.eek said:
The Tories screwed up by putting a referendum in their manifesto and destroying the Lib Dems who they hoped would continue with them and veto the vote.DecrepitJohnL said:
Is it because you blame Labour for every Tory calamity visited on the country?eek said:
Nope the third is 100% correct, you can roll up to the UK get an NI number and immediately start to claim benefits. Why do you think I continually state that Brexit is due to Brown / Blair refusing to move to a contribution based welfare system....Richard_Nabavi said:
Looking at their website, they list three specific gripes:rottenborough said:
The second is irrelevant if a deal is reached, and by definition irrelevant if a deal isn't reached. The third seems to be wrong. That leaves the first, which has some force, but is hardly a ditch to die on.
The latter is more nuanced but working tax credits attract a type of immigrant I don't see in Denmark / Austria (picking places I've worked in over the past few years)...
Equally I can fully understand why Brown / Blair didn't introduce contribution based welfare when it was suggested to do so - sadly (for obvious reasons) Labour is the only party who could do so and they dropped the ball here...
With this Brexit would be an ideal means for the government to make those kind of welfare changes. Taking ourself out of the single market is nothing more than sodding self harm. We have an immigration issue that has pushed up numbers and flatlined wages at the bottom end, along with the fact that many people don’t like the changes that have happened in their area of other areas.
How we manage our welfare system is up to us. Stay in single market and create contributions based welfare eligibility. Enforce rules on free movement of people and actively remove those here for more than threee months without a means to support themselves (as is allowed).0 -
as ever is that confirmation :-)ralphmalph said:
Macron says "Non."Alanbrooke said:
Verhofstedt offers to team up with Macron in the Euro elections
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/liberale-im-eu-parlament-fuer-allianz-mit-macrons-partei-15780672.html
https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-elections-2019/news/macrons-aide-were-not-discussing-alliance-with-verhofstadt/0 -
Somewhat boringly I agree. I would have preferred 4 so they could make some real progress tonight but Root is cautious.Anorak said:
True. I'm going to guess there'll be a declaration at 4:30-5:00.DavidL said:
Plus the run rate of this partnership has just gone over 4 an over. They are hardly taking time out of the game.Anorak said:Rook/Cook partnership inching toward 250. Aside from my personal irritation with the lack of slogging at this stage, it must be demoralising for a field to face the same pair for so very long.
0 -
Nah, that's miles away!TheScreamingEagles said:
Barnet?NickPalmer said:
The Broxtowe proposals are unchanged, and would lead to most of Anna Soubry's seat being divided into two with bits added on from Nottingham and Hucknall, both of which would be less Tory than the current one because of the additions. Nottingham West and Beeston would be Labour in most years (Beeston has zero Tory borough councillors); Broxtowe & Hucknall pretty marginal and presumably the one AS would try to hold.DecrepitJohnL said:
Prediction: Labour MPs whose seats are abolished will resign as a protest against Corbyn or antisemitism or Corbyn's antisemitism, on a point of principle.Tissue_Price said:twitter.com/BCE2018/status/1039117896729997312
Conservative MPs will resign as a protest against Chequers or for a second referendum, on a point of principle.
ETA the new boundaries report is at https://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Final-recommendations-report.pdf
As for JC's constituency being abolished, I suspect he would not have difficulty in getting selection as the Labour candidate anywhere he chose.
BTW I was in Hucknall on Saturday, some bicycle race going on and some bands playing. Saw Lord Byron and Ada Lovelace tomb.0 -
Labour have a point about reducing MPs but not Ministers, don't they?0
-
I think he should retire on 12468 test runs.TheScreamingEagles said:
Had he honoured Fibonacci with 11235, test history would have been very different (and we might have found a replacement by now).0 -
Disagree with the claim that Brexit would lead to a united Ireland do you mean? I have no opinion either way, wouldn't claim to have any idea, although I am inclined to agree with the proposition that hypothetical polling shouldn't be trusted too much.DavidL said:
That is presumably because you disagree with it. As you are free to do. And Chelyabinsk is entitled to point out the inconsistency. The only times I have been disappointed with PB is when argumentative if somewhat intemperate voices have been banned. We have lost some good contributors that way over the years. Disagreements are what keep this site alive.JohnRussell said:
Well it seems a little poor to me that instead of saying "Remember last weeks header about hypothetical polling..." a lot of people are commenting along the lines of "See I told you Brexit would lead to a united Ireland..." with no reference to the previous header. Chelyabinsk made a good spot in my opinion.DavidL said:
Plus I am sure that I have read some comments below the line on PB that were not entirely respectful of the thread header. It's a free country and a free site for which we should be grateful.TheScreamingEagles said:
It isn't.JohnRussell said:
That is quite a poor showChelyabinsk said:
1) They were written by different authors, Mike gives us the luxury to write what we like. There's no settled PB view.
2) Keiran's a very respected pollster, as is Ariel Edwards-Levy, whose tweet thread the first article is based on, is the Polling Editor of the Huffington Post.
3) Chelyabinsk missed out Keiran's quote which was ' So although this poll clearly shows that Brexit shifts opinion on a united Ireland in Northern Ireland, the scale of that shift and how a border poll plays out in practice is unclear.'
0 -
A safe prediction.DecrepitJohnL said:
Prediction: Labour MPs whose seats are abolished will resign as a protest against Corbyn or antisemitism or Corbyn's antisemitism, on a point of principle.Tissue_Price said:twitter.com/BCE2018/status/1039117896729997312
Conservative MPs will resign as a protest against Chequers or for a second referendum, on a point of principle.
Watch Wales especially where 40 MPs are chasing 29 seats. This is a big, big cull.
Let’s see what happens to multimillionaire Stephen Kinnock, whose constituency is dismembered. Although he is the darling of the Guardian, he is pretty much reviled in his constituency, as it seems he did not tell the full truth about the private education of his daughter at the original selection meeting for grindingly poor, Brexity Aberavon. He could be the biggest casualty of the cull.
There are 2 Tory Pembrokeshire MPs fighting for one seat (Crabb & Hart). There are 2 Tory North Walian MPs fighting for one seat (Bebb & Jones). I suspect this is behind the rumblings from Bebb at the weekend.
There are 4 Labour Cardiff MPs fighting for 3 seats. In North East Wales, there are 5 Labour MPs fighting for 3 seats.
Incidentally (and possibly importantly), Plaid Cymru could probably be bought on side for the Commons vote if the diminution is accompanied by more powers for the Welsh Assembly. They don’t do too badly out of the proposals, they will probably retain 3 seats and have a chance at Arfon & Anglesey (though Labour are favourites there).
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That’s Viscount Two Tits, to you.Nigel_Foremain said:
Excellent again. I have changed my nickname for you. You are no longer Comical Ali. You will now for ever be known as Alan Two Tits BrookeAlanbrooke said:
titNigel_Foremain said:
Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaverAlanbrooke said:
titNigel_Foremain said:
Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.archer101au said:
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.Nigel_Foremain said:Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
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I am afraid that bit of banter has gone over my head somewhat, Mr Two Tits. Maybe I have underestimated you and I have just been verbally skewered without knowing itAlanbrooke said:
I have you down as a dog groomerNigel_Foremain said:
Excellent again. I have changed my nickname for you. You are no longer Comical Ali. You will now for ever be known as Alan Two Tits BrookeAlanbrooke said:
titNigel_Foremain said:
Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaverAlanbrooke said:
titNigel_Foremain said:
Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.archer101au said:
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.Nigel_Foremain said:Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
but not in a healthy way0 -
woof woofRobD said:
That’s Viscount Two Tits, to you.Nigel_Foremain said:
Excellent again. I have changed my nickname for you. You are no longer Comical Ali. You will now for ever be known as Alan Two Tits BrookeAlanbrooke said:
titNigel_Foremain said:
Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaverAlanbrooke said:
titNigel_Foremain said:
Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.archer101au said:
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.Nigel_Foremain said:Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....0 -
so no denial of your doggy desires ?Nigel_Foremain said:
I am afraid that bit of banter has gone over my head somewhat, Mr Two Tits. Maybe I have underestimated you and I have just been verbally skewered without knowing itAlanbrooke said:
I have you down as a dog groomerNigel_Foremain said:
Excellent again. I have changed my nickname for you. You are no longer Comical Ali. You will now for ever be known as Alan Two Tits BrookeAlanbrooke said:
titNigel_Foremain said:
Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaverAlanbrooke said:
titNigel_Foremain said:
Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.archer101au said:
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.Nigel_Foremain said:Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
but not in a healthy way
0 -
They need to change gear to a 50 over run-rate. Then Twenty20 after tea.DavidL said:
Somewhat boringly I agree. I would have preferred 4 so they could make some real progress tonight but Root is cautious.Anorak said:
True. I'm going to guess there'll be a declaration at 4:30-5:00.DavidL said:
Plus the run rate of this partnership has just gone over 4 an over. They are hardly taking time out of the game.Anorak said:Rook/Cook partnership inching toward 250. Aside from my personal irritation with the lack of slogging at this stage, it must be demoralising for a field to face the same pair for so very long.
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India look a bit knackered.0
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Even better. The real Viscount Alanbrooke, being a military man, would have perhaps been more amused by the reference, though he would have probably referred to Generals Montgomery and Patton as deserving of the "two shits" titleRobD said:
That’s Viscount Two Tits, to you.Nigel_Foremain said:
Excellent again. I have changed my nickname for you. You are no longer Comical Ali. You will now for ever be known as Alan Two Tits BrookeAlanbrooke said:
titNigel_Foremain said:
Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaverAlanbrooke said:
titNigel_Foremain said:
Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.archer101au said:
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.Nigel_Foremain said:Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....0 -
NEW THREAD
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https://twitter.com/wooferendum/status/1032251112911458304Alanbrooke said:
woof woofRobD said:
That’s Viscount Two Tits, to you.Nigel_Foremain said:
Excellent again. I have changed my nickname for you. You are no longer Comical Ali. You will now for ever be known as Alan Two Tits BrookeAlanbrooke said:
titNigel_Foremain said:
Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaverAlanbrooke said:
titNigel_Foremain said:
Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.archer101au said:
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.Nigel_Foremain said:Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....0 -
Reminds me of the old Jethro joke where he said he asked his wife if he could do it to her doggy fashion and she said she would as long as she didn't have to bark and that they did it in a street where no one would recognise herAlanbrooke said:
so no denial of your doggy desires ?Nigel_Foremain said:
I am afraid that bit of banter has gone over my head somewhat, Mr Two Tits. Maybe I have underestimated you and I have just been verbally skewered without knowing itAlanbrooke said:
I have you down as a dog groomerNigel_Foremain said:
Excellent again. I have changed my nickname for you. You are no longer Comical Ali. You will now for ever be known as Alan Two Tits BrookeAlanbrooke said:
titNigel_Foremain said:
Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaverAlanbrooke said:
titNigel_Foremain said:
Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.archer101au said:
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.Nigel_Foremain said:Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
but not in a healthy way0 -
..but just to disappoint your strange fantasies Mr Two Tits, I have no experience of Caninophilia.Nigel_Foremain said:
Reminds me of the old Jethro joke where he said he asked his wife if he could do it to her doggy fashion and she said she would as long as she didn't have to bark and that they did it in a street where no one would recognise herAlanbrooke said:
so no denial of your doggy desires ?Nigel_Foremain said:
I am afraid that bit of banter has gone over my head somewhat, Mr Two Tits. Maybe I have underestimated you and I have just been verbally skewered without knowing itAlanbrooke said:
I have you down as a dog groomerNigel_Foremain said:
Excellent again. I have changed my nickname for you. You are no longer Comical Ali. You will now for ever be known as Alan Two Tits BrookeAlanbrooke said:
titNigel_Foremain said:
Just got back to my PC to enjoy your response. Nice to see you upholding the reputation of the rapier wit and eloquence of the average leaverAlanbrooke said:
titNigel_Foremain said:
Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.archer101au said:
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.Nigel_Foremain said:Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
but not in a healthy way0 -
River Tyne border annoyingly not respected in these new boundaries.0
This discussion has been closed.