politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The power and politics of pardon
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28.3, 17.6, 19.8
5862 out of 6004 at 22:56
Sverigesradio.se0 -
I understand they are going to be 200 metres long with 9 inter connecting coaches carrying 1,500 passengers per train. Depends on frequency but that seems quite a lot of passengers per trainbrendan16 said:
Sounds like the new Crossrail trains - the most uncomfortable train seats I have ever sat on. Given the massive cut in seats compared to the old trains though it probably won't matter - standing will be the order of the day.JosiasJessop said:
Sunil, I travelled on my first IET Azuma today, on the Cotswold line to Oxford. Two points spting to mind:Sunil_Prasannan said:
*) The seats are *really* uncomfortable, and I have a fair amount of padding on my bottom.
*) They can't get the electronic signs right even on a new train; for the entire journey it as saying the next station was Worcester.0 -
If the left and right find it impossible to form a coalition to govern, do they have another go at this election lark in a few months?0
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That would be my thoughts too. Whichever of the coalitions wins the most seats forms a minority government. On most things they could make effective policy decisions.JohnO said:
OK, so the centre-right coalition forms a minority govt, tolerated by the centre left? I’m not saying that a grand coalition won’t happen but it’s not inevitable based on the experience of the last 4 years.HYUFD said:
Last time the centre left block had more MPs than the centre right block, that may well not be the case this timeJohnO said:
But didn’t they also hold the balance in the previous Parliament? Why couldn’t a similar arrangement - a minority govt but tolerated by the opposition with strict policy constraints - be put in place for the new one?HYUFD said:
How can there not be a Grand Coalition when both centre right and centre left blocks are deadlocked without giving the Swedish Democrats the balance of power?Richard_Nabavi said:There are similarities to the 2016 Irish election, with a result where no combination can command a majority. Pace @HYUFD, a grand coalition is not inevitable, in fact it's rather unlikely. Most likely is either an arrangement like that between Fine Gael and Fianna Fianna Fáil, in which the centre right agrees to let the centre right govern but with restrictions on what they can do, or the converse with the centre right governing, or a centre-right minority government to which the Sweden Democrats provide limited support on a 'we can pull the plug anytime' basis.
Like Ireland, and Italy, it's a helluva mess however you look at it.
The coalitions themselves are effectively Labour and Conservatives. Their internal divisions merely revealed by the PR system putting them into different parties.0 -
Sweden can hold 'Exceptional Elections', but has only done so once since the war. This sort of result was fairly expected by all parties and the pre-election talk was some kind of coalition will be workable.FrancisUrquhart said:If the left and right find it impossible to form a coalition to govern, do they have another go at this election lark in a few months?
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I regret to say I have no knowledge of Sweden's political system but from reading the thread looks like Alastair is a star and I send my congratulations to him
Another day of Boris proving why he will never be PM and now the time has come to call it a day.
The very best of nights rest to everyone
Good night folks0 -
That looks like a poor result for the far-right in Sweden given the polling and all the hype. In north and western Europe, at least, the fascist right is still very much a minority affair. Mustn’t be complacent, but they’re not breaking through into power or close to it, so far.0
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The Social Democrats appear to have somewhat exceeded the polls and expectations overall.0
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Johnson is the Jose Mourinho of UK politics. Once novel and a media darling, now just a grumpy sniping old bollocks with no sticking power who thinks he is worth more than he is.Big_G_NorthWales said:I regret to say I have no knowledge of Sweden's political system but from reading the thread looks like Alastair is a star and I send my congratulations to him
Another day of Boris proving why he will never be PM and now the time has come to call it a day.
The very best of nights rest to everyone
Good night folks0 -
69 results to come out of 6004 in total. Looks like
Left 144 (-15)
Right 142 (+1)
SD 63 (+14)0 -
Oh, the next Swedish pm. I thought you meant UK pm. My bad.Pulpstar said:0 -
Agreed, from here it looks like many things are possible but nothing is likely. But I don't know enough to bet on that market.Pulpstar said:0 -
They've got a slightly higher share of the vote than the Northern League received at the Italian general election earlier this year. But it's true some of the opinion polls weren't too accurate.SouthamObserver said:That looks like a poor result for the far-right in Sweden given the polling and all the hype. In north and western Europe, at least, the fascist right is still very much a minority affair. Mustn’t be complacent, but they’re not breaking through into power or close to it, so far.
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Now the Northern League, they're absolubtely crushing it !AndyJS said:
They've got a slightly higher share of the vote than the Northern League received at the Italian general election earlier this year. But it's true some of the opinion polls weren't too accurate.SouthamObserver said:That looks like a poor result for the far-right in Sweden given the polling and all the hype. In north and western Europe, at least, the fascist right is still very much a minority affair. Mustn’t be complacent, but they’re not breaking through into power or close to it, so far.
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My political heroes have long been Clement Attlee and Olof Palme. Both came from comfortable upper middle class backgrounds themselves but devoted their lives to helping others less fortunate.0
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That is, as has been pointed out and then ignored, how Ireland operates when there is a block (SF) that neither FF or FG wish to deal with. As you say, it’s hardly unique.JohnO said:
OK, so the centre-right coalition forms a minority govt, tolerated by the centre left? I’m not saying that a grand coalition won’t happen but it’s not inevitable based on the experience of the last 4 years.HYUFD said:
Last time the centre left block had more MPs than the centre right block, that may well not be the case this timeJohnO said:
But didn’t they also hold the balance in the previous Parliament? Why couldn’t a similar arrangement - a minority govt but tolerated by the opposition with strict policy constraints - be put in place for the new one?HYUFD said:
How can there not be a Grand Coalition when both centre right and centre left blocks are deadlocked without giving the Swedish Democrats the balance of power?Richard_Nabavi said:There are similarities to the 2016 Irish election, with a result where no combination can command a majority. Pace @HYUFD, a grand coalition is not inevitable, in fact it's rather unlikely. Most likely is either an arrangement like that between Fine Gael and Fianna Fianna Fáil, in which the centre right agrees to let the centre right govern but with restrictions on what they can do, or the converse with the centre right governing, or a centre-right minority government to which the Sweden Democrats provide limited support on a 'we can pull the plug anytime' basis.
Like Ireland, and Italy, it's a helluva mess however you look at it.0 -
Northern League got 17.4%, Sweden Democrats are currently on 17.6%. Interesting bit of symmetry there. But it's unlikely the Sweden Democrats will be on 35% in 6 months' time.Pulpstar said:
Now the Northern League, they're absolubtely crushing it !AndyJS said:
They've got a slightly higher share of the vote than the Northern League received at the Italian general election earlier this year. But it's true some of the opinion polls weren't too accurate.SouthamObserver said:That looks like a poor result for the far-right in Sweden given the polling and all the hype. In north and western Europe, at least, the fascist right is still very much a minority affair. Mustn’t be complacent, but they’re not breaking through into power or close to it, so far.
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I fear it is the same instinct which sought to add all the UKIP votes to the Tories over here. Far Right plus Right equals Right wins. It doesn't work like that. The Ulf guy may end up PM, but it is far from heavily odds on.Pulpstar said:
Edit: May I add congrats to Alastair for top tips.0 -
Though a bit like the kippers here, they have dragged the more traditional right Moderates towards the alt.right rabbit hole.SouthamObserver said:That looks like a poor result for the far-right in Sweden given the polling and all the hype. In north and western Europe, at least, the fascist right is still very much a minority affair. Mustn’t be complacent, but they’re not breaking through into power or close to it, so far.
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The Left Party also did markedly less well than the polls has predicted - there seems to have been a late shift to the Social Democrats, perhaps to make sure the Sweden Democrats didn't pip them. Both my and Alastair's predictions came through, though the Greens were closer to the 4% threshold than I expected.AndyJS said:
They've got a slightly higher share of the vote than the Northern League received at the Italian general election earlier this year. But it's true some of the opinion polls weren't too accurate.SouthamObserver said:That looks like a poor result for the far-right in Sweden given the polling and all the hype. In north and western Europe, at least, the fascist right is still very much a minority affair. Mustn’t be complacent, but they’re not breaking through into power or close to it, so far.
Hard to call the next PM question, with the left marginally ahead of the centre-right. Loefgren is merely saying he'll stay on tomorrow and then see. Various party leaders making noises about cooperation across the centre.I wouldn't put money on any particular individual at this point. Ulf might make it, but he'd need active support from the Sweden Democrats (not just abstention), and I think he'd then lose some of his centrist partners, in the same way that you wouldn't get Ken Clarke and Anna Soubry signing up to a deal with Farage.0 -
I don't agree with what the Sky News correspondent just said, which was: "The Sweden Democrats are the clear winners of the election", if I heard it right. When 82% don't vote for a party, you can't possibly describe them as the clear winners.0
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Sky's not really as professional as the BBC for foreign news. The Sweden Democrats did put on more votes than other parties, but fell well short of expectations. I've been looking over the Swedish press - they say Loefgren will probably have to step down as PM, but a Social Democrat-Centre-Moderate-Green government could work without anyone breaking promises - the Moderates have ruled out supporting either Loefgren personally or working with the Sweden Democrats, while the Social Democrats aren't willing to give up the PM role as largest party. So a new social deomxrat PM looks possible - which is why the "next PM" market is one to avoid, except maybe to lay the candidates.AndyJS said:I don't agree with what the Sky News correspondent just said, which was: "The Sweden Democrats are the clear winners of the election", if I heard it right. When 82% don't vote for a party, you can't possibly describe them as the clear winners.
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Multiple people stabbed in paris by an Afghan national.0
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Sure Labour were the winners of the last election here weren't they?AndyJS said:I don't agree with what the Sky News correspondent just said, which was: "The Sweden Democrats are the clear winners of the election", if I heard it right. When 82% don't vote for a party, you can't possibly describe them as the clear winners.
The French authorities are suggesting the Paris mass stabbing has no known link to terrorism.
It looks to all intents and purposes like it is.
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This has become a bit of a standard response by European police eg Amsterdam the other week. Then a few days later they quietly announce yes it was.Y0kel said:
Sure Labour were the winners of the last election here weren't they?AndyJS said:I don't agree with what the Sky News correspondent just said, which was: "The Sweden Democrats are the clear winners of the election", if I heard it right. When 82% don't vote for a party, you can't possibly describe them as the clear winners.
The French authorities are suggesting the Paris mass stabbing has no known link to terrorism.
It looks to all intents and purposes like it is.
Not saying this stabbing rampage was, rather the authorities standard response is now to initially say we can't say it was.
It seems unless they were wearing an ISIS t-shirt and waving an ISIS and screaming death to the infidels, the European police say well no indication it definitely was at this stage of the investigation.0 -
Can anyone understand this article? I'm really struggling with it. (Someone with a PhD in Deconstructionism might be useful).
https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/tennis/serena-williams-us-open-final-umpire-naomi-osaka-flushing-meadows-a8529611.html0 -
No, he was acting as a modeller. Which vitiates my example somewhat. Oops. OK, delete "Nate Silver", insert "Angus Reid", change the date and pretend I know what I'm doing. Pretend really hard...Stereotomy said:
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I refer you to this analysis from Messrs Parker and StoneAndyJS said:Can anyone understand this article? I'm really struggling with it. (Someone with a PhD in Deconstructionism might be useful).
https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/tennis/serena-williams-us-open-final-umpire-naomi-osaka-flushing-meadows-a8529611.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If7jb7C9Zeo0 -
Looks like Sweden joins the list of European countries with difficult election results from which to form a government, with an anti-immigration party adding votes. Well done to @AlastairMeeks and @NickPalmer for what look to have been very good money-making tips. Alas I didn’t partake in betting on this one.0
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+1Sandpit said:Looks like Sweden joins the list of European countries with difficult election results from which to form a government, with an anti-immigration party adding votes. Well done to @AlastairMeeks and @NickPalmer for what look to have been very good money-making tips. Alas I didn’t partake in betting on this one.
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