Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The power and politics of pardon

24

Comments

  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Something of a wildcard for the Sweden results tonight. My cousin who lives there explained to me how the voting system works and its intended purpose of shaming people into only voting for "acceptable" parties. The way voting happens there is that people take voting sheets from a common tray and them post them into a ballot box, each party running has it's own sheet in a separate container which one must pick the ballot paper up from. He said the system has been designed to put pressure onto people thinking of voting against the consensus and expects that SD will underperform the online polling because of it.

    He was very surprised that it wasn't just an X in a box which is truly secret.

    http://pure.au.dk/portal/files/128529565/Brisbane_paper_on_secret_voting_26062018.pdf

    I'm quite surprised, as it makes it more difficult to have a truly secret ballot. They also mention printing 685 million ballot cards... which seems excessive.
    Well from what my cousin was saying it's intended purpose is to pressure people into not voting for anti-consensus parties like SD and the communists etc...

    It is a system designed to make people's votes less secret!
    Looking on the internet it appears you have an option to chose a blank ballot paper and write down the preferred party/candidate. Presumably that would be the choice for those shy supporters of the far righ..er..rejectors of cradle to grave socialism.

    'There are also different kinds of ballot papers, allowing you to vote either for a particular party (without identifying a specific candidate), to choose from a list of candidates as well as parties, or to vote using a blank ballot paper. On blank ballot papers, you can write down any party and candidate. In theory, it's possible to write anyone's name, and if that person got a large enough proportion of votes, they would be elected.'

    https://tinyurl.com/y82nnxkv
    What a dreadful system. It’s not even a proper secret ballot.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    You'll all be delighted to know that in the next few days I'll be publishing a thread comparing current political events to The Second Punic War.

    How about the Pubic War, given it's all a total balls up?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    RoyalBlue said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Something of a wildcard for the Sweden results tonight. My cousin who lives there explained to me how the voting system works and its intended purpose of shaming people into only voting for "acceptable" parties. The way voting happens there is that people take voting sheets from a common tray and them post them into a ballot box, each party running has it's own sheet in a separate container which one must pick the ballot paper up from. He said the system has been designed to put pressure onto people thinking of voting against the consensus and expects that SD will underperform the online polling because of it.

    He was very surprised that it wasn't just an X in a box which is truly secret.

    http://pure.au.dk/portal/files/128529565/Brisbane_paper_on_secret_voting_26062018.pdf

    I'm quite surprised, as it makes it more difficult to have a truly secret ballot. They also mention printing 685 million ballot cards... which seems excessive.
    Well from what my cousin was saying it's intended purpose is to pressure people into not voting for anti-consensus parties like SD and the communists etc...

    It is a system designed to make people's votes less secret!
    Looking on the internet it appears you have an option to chose a blank ballot paper and write down the preferred party/candidate. Presumably that would be the choice for those shy supporters of the far righ..er..rejectors of cradle to grave socialism.

    'There are also different kinds of ballot papers, allowing you to vote either for a particular party (without identifying a specific candidate), to choose from a list of candidates as well as parties, or to vote using a blank ballot paper. On blank ballot papers, you can write down any party and candidate. In theory, it's possible to write anyone's name, and if that person got a large enough proportion of votes, they would be elected.'

    https://tinyurl.com/y82nnxkv
    What a dreadful system. It’s not even a proper secret ballot.
    Doesn’t Australia have a similar system?
  • Mr. Eagles, I'm not sure I'll have the time necessary to correct all your errors. That being so, it might be simpler if you just toss your latest draft in a bucket of red ink.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Mr. Eagles, I'm not sure I'll have the time necessary to correct all your errors. That being so, it might be simpler if you just toss your latest draft in a bucket of red ink.

    Grand old Soviet joke:

    Two brothers, John, and Bob, who lived in America and were members of the communist party, decided to emigrate to the USSR. Even though they didn't believe the American media's negative reports on the conditions in the USSR, they decided to exercise caution. John would go to Russia to test the waters. If they were right and it was a communist paradise, then John would write a letter to Bob using black ink. If, though, the situation in the USSR was as bad as the American media liked to portray, and the KGB was a force to be feared, John would use red ink to indicate whatever he says in the letter must not be believed.

    In three months John sent his first report. It was in black ink and read, "I'm so happy here! It's a beautiful country, I enjoy complete freedom and a high standard of living. All the capitalist press wrote was lies. Everything is readily available! There is only one small thing of which there's a shortage. Red ink."
  • Mr. Doethur, that reminds me of a rather good line in Babylon 5. The doctor's put the command team on different diets and none of them like it. Ivanova complains that she doesn't want to become part of the ever expanding Russian frontier, and Dr. Franklin replies that she has such lovely borders.
  • From CricViz

    Serious Issues

    Five of Jennings’ nine dismissals this series have been LBW or bowled.

    Against balls from the seamers which would have hit the stumps, he’s averaged 1.33.
  • HYUFD said:

    Pretty convincing article, thanks Richard. A caveat might be that sufficiently shameless use of pardons before 2020 might reinforce GOP resolve not to renominate him. In that situation, I could well see him running as an independent - not a possibility I've seen discussed before, but entirely in keeping with his personality. I think he'd lose, but the official GOP candidate might be pushed into third place.

    How can the GOP resolve not to nominate him? As long as he gets enough GOP primary voters voting for him he will be nominee again
    If Trump pardons his cronies could someone produce a cartoon with TRUMP metamorphosing into SWAMP.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Something of a wildcard for the Sweden results tonight. My cousin who lives there explained to me how the voting system works and its intended purpose of shaming people into only voting for "acceptable" parties. The way voting happens there is that people take voting sheets from a common tray and them post them into a ballot box, each party running has it's own sheet in a separate container which one must pick the ballot paper up from. He said the system has been designed to put pressure onto people thinking of voting against the consensus and expects that SD will underperform the online polling because of it.

    He was very surprised that it wasn't just an X in a box which is truly secret.

    Surely the same applied in 2014 when the Swedish Democrats pretty much matched or slightly outperformed most of the final polls?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Swedish_general_election,_2014
    Agreed. It's an odd system but an established one which the pollsters/voters seem to be used to.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Nigelb said:

    If Cook is out for 20, he will have scored 12345 test runs.

    TMS: Alec Stewart was born on 8th April 1963 and scored 8,463 test runs.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Have the umpires really had the ball changed twice in five overs?

    That's very unusual.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    HYUFD said:

    Pretty convincing article, thanks Richard. A caveat might be that sufficiently shameless use of pardons before 2020 might reinforce GOP resolve not to renominate him. In that situation, I could well see him running as an independent - not a possibility I've seen discussed before, but entirely in keeping with his personality. I think he'd lose, but the official GOP candidate might be pushed into third place.

    How can the GOP resolve not to nominate him? As long as he gets enough GOP primary voters voting for him he will be nominee again
    If Trump pardons his cronies could someone produce a cartoon with TRUMP metamorphosing into SWAMP.
    The GOP is still bitter that a key player in the Nixon administration who enabled the Saturday Night Massacre (Bork) didn't get confirmed to the supreme Court.

    Given their rush to confirm a justice who would basically give Trump blanket immunity to do as he pleases they are the swampiest party who ever did swamp.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited September 2018
    Essay: 10/10
    Pun: 0/10 (but worth suffering)
    P/S Yates still leads the Vuelta.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    ydoethur said:

    Have the umpires really had the ball changed twice in five overs?

    That's very unusual.

    They can keep changing it if there's a problem with the shape of the ball.
  • Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pretty convincing article, thanks Richard. A caveat might be that sufficiently shameless use of pardons before 2020 might reinforce GOP resolve not to renominate him. In that situation, I could well see him running as an independent - not a possibility I've seen discussed before, but entirely in keeping with his personality. I think he'd lose, but the official GOP candidate might be pushed into third place.

    How can the GOP resolve not to nominate him? As long as he gets enough GOP primary voters voting for him he will be nominee again
    If Trump pardons his cronies could someone produce a cartoon with TRUMP metamorphosing into SWAMP.
    The GOP is still bitter that a key player in the Nixon administration who enabled the Saturday Night Massacre (Bork) didn't get confirmed to the supreme Court.

    Given their rush to confirm a justice who would basically give Trump blanket immunity to do as he pleases they are the swampiest party who ever did swamp.
    I always felt sorry for Robert Bork.

    Nixon gave him a legal order, unlike Richardson and Ruckelshaus, he hadn't given assurances to Congress not to fire Cox.

    He didn't want to the Justice to be leaderless after just losing the top two people.

    Of course Nixon's promise to nominate him for the next seat up on the Supreme Court may have been a factor.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Something of a wildcard for the Sweden results tonight. My cousin who lives there explained to me how the voting system works and its intended purpose of shaming people into only voting for "acceptable" parties. The way voting happens there is that people take voting sheets from a common tray and them post them into a ballot box, each party running has it's own sheet in a separate container which one must pick the ballot paper up from. He said the system has been designed to put pressure onto people thinking of voting against the consensus and expects that SD will underperform the online polling because of it.

    He was very surprised that it wasn't just an X in a box which is truly secret.

    http://pure.au.dk/portal/files/128529565/Brisbane_paper_on_secret_voting_26062018.pdf

    I'm quite surprised, as it makes it more difficult to have a truly secret ballot. They also mention printing 685 million ballot cards... which seems excessive.
    Well from what my cousin was saying it's intended purpose is to pressure people into not voting for anti-consensus parties like SD and the communists etc...

    It is a system designed to make people's votes less secret!
    Looking on the internet it appears you have an option to chose a blank ballot paper and write down the preferred party/candidate. Presumably that would be the choice for those shy supporters of the far righ..er..rejectors of cradle to grave socialism.

    'There are also different kinds of ballot papers, allowing you to vote either for a particular party (without identifying a specific candidate), to choose from a list of candidates as well as parties, or to vote using a blank ballot paper. On blank ballot papers, you can write down any party and candidate. In theory, it's possible to write anyone's name, and if that person got a large enough proportion of votes, they would be elected.'

    https://tinyurl.com/y82nnxkv
    It's still not 100% secret, why not just have an X in a box?
    How is it not secret? D'ye think there are massed ranks of disapproving social democrats standing around the polling station, tutting and tapping their noses every time some one picks up a blank sheet of paper?
    The question should be why is there an option for it not to be secret.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301
    AndyJS said:

    Nigelb said:

    If Cook is out for 20, he will have scored 12345 test runs.

    TMS: Alec Stewart was born on 8th April 1963 and scored 8,463 test runs.
    And Curran, of course, was only the second test batsman to score his age on his birthday.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Nigelb said:

    You'll all be delighted to know that in the next few days I'll be publishing a thread comparing current political events to The Second Punic War.

    Given the ongoing mess and division entailed by Brexit, the Thirty Years War might be more appropriate.
    I'll see your Thirty Years War and raise you a Hundred Years War. And at the end of it, the Remainers will STILL be bitching....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    I hear from the Oval that Cook feels the safest way to ensure his average is over 45 is to carry his bat. He will therefore be blocking every ball he faces.
  • RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Something of a wildcard for the Sweden results tonight. My cousin who lives there explained to me how the voting system works and its intended purpose of shaming people into only voting for "acceptable" parties. The way voting happens there is that people take voting sheets from a common tray and them post them into a ballot box, each party running has it's own sheet in a separate container which one must pick the ballot paper up from. He said the system has been designed to put pressure onto people thinking of voting against the consensus and expects that SD will underperform the online polling because of it.

    He was very surprised that it wasn't just an X in a box which is truly secret.

    http://pure.au.dk/portal/files/128529565/Brisbane_paper_on_secret_voting_26062018.pdf

    I'm quite surprised, as it makes it more difficult to have a truly secret ballot. They also mention printing 685 million ballot cards... which seems excessive.
    Well from what my cousin was saying it's intended purpose is to pressure people into not voting for anti-consensus parties like SD and the communists etc...

    It is a system designed to make people's votes less secret!
    Looking on the internet it appears you have an option to chose a blank ballot paper and write down the preferred party/candidate. Presumably that would be the choice for those shy supporters of the far righ..er..rejectors of cradle to grave socialism.

    'There are also different kinds of ballot papers, allowing you to vote either for a particular party (without identifying a specific candidate), to choose from a list of candidates as well as parties, or to vote using a blank ballot paper. On blank ballot papers, you can write down any party and candidate. In theory, it's possible to write anyone's name, and if that person got a large enough proportion of votes, they would be elected.'

    https://tinyurl.com/y82nnxkv
    It's still not 100% secret, why not just have an X in a box?
    How is it not secret? D'ye think there are massed ranks of disapproving social democrats standing around the polling station, tutting and tapping their noses every time some one picks up a blank sheet of paper?
    The question should be why is there an option for it not to be secret.
    How is a non aligned, neutral, blank sheet of paper not the secret ballot option?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    rcs1000 said:

    I hear from the Oval that Cook feels the safest way to ensure his average is over 45 is to carry his bat. He will therefore be blocking every ball he faces.

    Get Root to declare, surely?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    If Cook is able to amass 1,052 runs this innings, he'll take his test match average up to 50, so I reckon that's his near-term goal.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    edited September 2018

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Something of a wildcard for the Sweden results tonight. My cousin who lives there explained to me how the voting system works and its intended purpose of shaming people into only voting for "acceptable" parties. The way voting happens there is that people take voting sheets from a common tray and them post them into a ballot box, each party running has it's own sheet in a separate container which one must pick the ballot paper up from. He said the system has been designed to put pressure onto people thinking of voting against the consensus and expects that SD will underperform the online polling because of it.

    He was very surprised that it wasn't just an X in a box which is truly secret.

    http://pure.au.dk/portal/files/128529565/Brisbane_paper_on_secret_voting_26062018.pdf

    I'm quite surprised, as it makes it more difficult to have a truly secret ballot. They also mention printing 685 million ballot cards... which seems excessive.
    Well from what my cousin was saying it's intended purpose is to pressure people into not voting for anti-consensus parties like SD and the communists etc...

    It is a system designed to make people's votes less secret!
    Looking on the internet it appears you have an option to chose a blank ballot paper and write down the preferred party/candidate. Presumably that would be the choice for those shy supporters of the far righ..er..rejectors of cradle to grave socialism.

    'There are also different kinds of ballot papers, allowing you to vote either for a particular party (without identifying a specific candidate), to choose from a list of candidates as well as parties, or to vote using a blank ballot paper. On blank ballot papers, you can write down any party and candidate. In theory, it's possible to write anyone's name, and if that person got a large enough proportion of votes, they would be elected.'

    https://tinyurl.com/y82nnxkv
    It's still not 100% secret, why not just have an X in a box?
    How is it not secret? D'ye think there are massed ranks of disapproving social democrats standing around the polling station, tutting and tapping their noses every time some one picks up a blank sheet of paper?
    The question should be why is there an option for it not to be secret.
    How is a non aligned, neutral, blank sheet of paper not the secret ballot option?
    Because you know it's an absence of a clear choice, "look at that man, he picked up a blank one instead of X".

    Awful system.
  • Sweden election: if you missed it yesterday, there's some money on Betfair to back the Moderates for most seats at 60 (a little more at 50).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    rcs1000 said:

    If Cook is able to amass 1,052 runs this innings, he'll take his test match average up to 50, so I reckon that's his near-term goal.

    What if he carries his bat?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If Cook is able to amass 1,052 runs this innings, he'll take his test match average up to 50, so I reckon that's his near-term goal.

    What if he carries his bat?
    Then only 1,011 needed.

    Come on Cookie!
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Most runs test career
    5. KC Sangakkara (SL) 12400
    6. AN Cook (ENG) 12369

    Needs 76 to overtake.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301
    edited September 2018

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pretty convincing article, thanks Richard. A caveat might be that sufficiently shameless use of pardons before 2020 might reinforce GOP resolve not to renominate him. In that situation, I could well see him running as an independent - not a possibility I've seen discussed before, but entirely in keeping with his personality. I think he'd lose, but the official GOP candidate might be pushed into third place.

    How can the GOP resolve not to nominate him? As long as he gets enough GOP primary voters voting for him he will be nominee again
    If Trump pardons his cronies could someone produce a cartoon with TRUMP metamorphosing into SWAMP.
    The GOP is still bitter that a key player in the Nixon administration who enabled the Saturday Night Massacre (Bork) didn't get confirmed to the supreme Court.

    Given their rush to confirm a justice who would basically give Trump blanket immunity to do as he pleases they are the swampiest party who ever did swamp.
    I always felt sorry for Robert Bork.

    Nixon gave him a legal order, unlike Richardson and Ruckelshaus, he hadn't given assurances to Congress not to fire Cox.

    He didn't want to the Justice to be leaderless after just losing the top two people.

    Of course Nixon's promise to nominate him for the next seat up on the Supreme Court may have been a factor.
    Why sorry ?
    Unlike Garland, he got a straight up down vote of the Senate - and didn’t even get all Republicans backing him. It was his stated on the record views which (rightly, IMO) sunk his confirmation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301

    Nigelb said:

    You'll all be delighted to know that in the next few days I'll be publishing a thread comparing current political events to The Second Punic War.

    Given the ongoing mess and division entailed by Brexit, the Thirty Years War might be more appropriate.
    I'll see your Thirty Years War and raise you a Hundred Years War. And at the end of it, the Remainers will STILL be bitching....
    Your air of studied neutrality does you credit....

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Most runs test career
    5. KC Sangakkara (SL) 12400
    6. AN Cook (ENG) 12369

    Needs 76 to overtake.

    Would be a shame, I think, as Sangakkara was a better bat.
  • Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pretty convincing article, thanks Richard. A caveat might be that sufficiently shameless use of pardons before 2020 might reinforce GOP resolve not to renominate him. In that situation, I could well see him running as an independent - not a possibility I've seen discussed before, but entirely in keeping with his personality. I think he'd lose, but the official GOP candidate might be pushed into third place.

    How can the GOP resolve not to nominate him? As long as he gets enough GOP primary voters voting for him he will be nominee again
    If Trump pardons his cronies could someone produce a cartoon with TRUMP metamorphosing into SWAMP.
    The GOP is still bitter that a key player in the Nixon administration who enabled the Saturday Night Massacre (Bork) didn't get confirmed to the supreme Court.

    Given their rush to confirm a justice who would basically give Trump blanket immunity to do as he pleases they are the swampiest party who ever did swamp.
    I always felt sorry for Robert Bork.

    Nixon gave him a legal order, unlike Richardson and Ruckelshaus, he hadn't given assurances to Congress not to fire Cox.

    He didn't want to the Justice to be leaderless after just losing the top two people.

    Of course Nixon's promise to nominate him for the next seat up on the Supreme Court may have been a factor.
    Why sorry ?
    Unlike Garland, he got a straight up down vote of the Senate - and didn’t even get all Republicans backing him. It was his stated on the record views which (rightly, IMO) sunk his confirmation.
    I think he executed the order that made most of the country think Nixon was a crook.

    If he hadn't executed that order then Nixon was running out of people to execute that order.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Nigelb said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Most runs test career
    5. KC Sangakkara (SL) 12400
    6. AN Cook (ENG) 12369

    Needs 76 to overtake.

    Would be a shame, I think, as Sangakkara was a better bat.
    Sangakkara averaged something truly ridiculous like 70 as a specialist batsman. What dragged his overall average and probably the number of runs scored down for him was that for the first third of his career he had to keep wicket.
  • Any good site recommendations to watch the Swedish results come in?
  • MaxPB said:


    Because you know it's an absence of a clear choice, "look at that man, he picked up a blank one instead of X".

    Awful system.

    Oh well, at least we've moved on from 'they almost literally make you pick up a ballot paper with swastikas on it' to the undemocratic repressiveness of blank bits of paper.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2018

    Any good site recommendations to watch the Swedish results come in?

    There are some links on this page:
    http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/11105/swedish-parliamentary-election-2018?page=10
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    I'm minded to think that the chap batting with Root at the close of play might offer some modicum of stability as an opener.

    Might the selectors Cook up a reason to keep the fellow on board ....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    JackW said:

    I'm minded to think that the chap batting with Root at the close of play might offer some modicum of stability as an opener.

    Might the selectors Cook up a reason to keep the fellow on board ....

    Nah, he says he's burned out.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Something of a wildcard for the Sweden results tonight. My cousin who lives there explained to me how the voting system works and its intended purpose of shaming people into only voting for "acceptable" parties. The way voting happens there is that people take voting sheets from a common tray and them post them into a ballot box, each party running has it's own sheet in a separate container which one must pick the ballot paper up from. He said the system has been designed to put pressure onto people thinking of voting against the consensus and expects that SD will underperform the online polling because of it.

    He was very surprised that it wasn't just an X in a box which is truly secret.

    http://pure.au.dk/portal/files/128529565/Brisbane_paper_on_secret_voting_26062018.pdf

    I'm quite surprised, as it makes it more difficult to have a truly secret ballot. They also mention printing 685 million ballot cards... which seems excessive.
    Well from what my cousin was saying it's intended purpose is to pressure people into not voting for anti-consensus parties like SD and the communists etc...

    It is a system designed to make people's votes less secret!
    Looking on the internet it appears you have an option to chose a blank ballot paper and write down the preferred party/candidate. Presumably that would be the choice for those shy supporters of the far righ..er..rejectors of cradle to grave socialism.

    'There are also different kinds of ballot papers, allowing you to vote either for a particular party (without identifying a specific candidate), to choose from a list of candidates as well as parties, or to vote using a blank ballot paper. On blank ballot papers, you can write down any party and candidate. In theory, it's possible to write anyone's name, and if that person got a large enough proportion of votes, they would be elected.'

    https://tinyurl.com/y82nnxkv
    It's still not 100% secret, why not just have an X in a box?
    How is it not secret? D'ye think there are massed ranks of disapproving social democrats standing around the polling station, tutting and tapping their noses every time some one picks up a blank sheet of paper?
    The question should be why is there an option for it not to be secret.
    How is a non aligned, neutral, blank sheet of paper not the secret ballot option?
    Why have the pre-printed ones then?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:


    Because you know it's an absence of a clear choice, "look at that man, he picked up a blank one instead of X".

    Awful system.

    Oh well, at least we've moved on from 'they almost literally make you pick up a ballot paper with swastikas on it' to the undemocratic repressiveness of blank bits of paper.
    It is undemocratic. I'm sure you'd love such a system in Scotland so your SNP boot boys could look over everyone's shoulder to make sure they vote correctly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    RobD said:

    Why have the pre-printed ones then?

    Yes, this system seems wide open to fraud and intimidation I have to say. They've probably got away with it up to now because it's Sweden and people tend to behave themselves. It wouldn't work for five minutes in the US.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Most runs test career
    5. KC Sangakkara (SL) 12400
    6. AN Cook (ENG) 12369

    Needs 76 to overtake.

    Would be a shame, I think, as Sangakkara was a better bat.
    Sangakkara averaged something truly ridiculous like 70 as a specialist batsman. What dragged his overall average and probably the number of runs scored down for him was that for the first third of his career he had to keep wicket.
    Some fun Sanga stats:
    https://www.cricketcountry.com/articles/kumar-sangakkara-15-batting-records-of-the-legend-322078

    Absolute top bloke, too.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Something of a wildcard for the Sweden results tonight. My cousin who lives there explained to me how the voting system works and its intended purpose of shaming people into only voting for "acceptable" parties. The way voting happens there is that people take voting sheets from a common tray and them post them into a ballot box, each party running has it's own sheet in a separate container which one must pick the ballot paper up from. He said the system has been designed to put pressure onto people thinking of voting against the consensus and expects that SD will underperform the online polling because of it.

    He was very surprised that it wasn't just an X in a box which is truly secret.

    http://pure.au.dk/portal/files/128529565/Brisbane_paper_on_secret_voting_26062018.pdf

    I'm quite surprised, as it makes it more difficult to have a truly secret ballot. They also mention printing 685 million ballot cards... which seems excessive.
    Well from what my cousin was saying it's intended purpose is to pressure people into not voting for anti-consensus parties like SD and the communists etc...

    It is a system designed to make people's votes less secret!
    Looking on the internet it appears you have an option to chose a blank ballot paper and write down the preferred party/candidate. Presumably that would be the choice for those shy supporters of the far righ..er..rejectors of cradle to grave socialism.

    'There are also different kinds of ballot papers, allowing you to vote either for a particular party (without identifying a specific candidate), to choose from a list of candidates as well as parties, or to vote using a blank ballot paper. On blank ballot papers, you can write down any party and candidate. In theory, it's possible to write anyone's name, and if that person got a large enough proportion of votes, they would be elected.'

    https://tinyurl.com/y82nnxkv
    It's still not 100% secret, why not just have an X in a box?
    How is it not secret? D'ye think there are massed ranks of disapproving social democrats standing around the polling station, tutting and tapping their noses every time some one picks up a blank sheet of paper?
    The question should be why is there an option for it not to be secret.
    How is a non aligned, neutral, blank sheet of paper not the secret ballot option?
    Why have the pre-printed ones then?
    Why not just have an X in a box?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    ydoethur said:

    JackW said:

    I'm minded to think that the chap batting with Root at the close of play might offer some modicum of stability as an opener.

    Might the selectors Cook up a reason to keep the fellow on board ....

    Nah, he says he's burned out.
    Ashes to ashes ....
  • Boo and hiss to that exit poll. Ah well.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    MaxPB said:



    Why not just have an X in a box?

    Precisely. The whole point of doing it in secret is to avoid voter intimidation. Not as effective when you can see what kind of ballot paper they are picking up.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888
    edited September 2018
    Sweden

    Polls close 8pm local 7pm UK

    Links:

    https://www.nrk.no/nyheter/valg-i-sverige-1.11200732

    https://www.tv4play.se/program/nyheterna/11498234

    https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/wEGeKP

    TV4 exit poll 10 mins ago had SocDem 25 Mod 18 SweDem 16 which feels a bit low for the Sweden Democrats?

    Thanks

    DC
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:


    Because you know it's an absence of a clear choice, "look at that man, he picked up a blank one instead of X".

    Awful system.

    Oh well, at least we've moved on from 'they almost literally make you pick up a ballot paper with swastikas on it' to the undemocratic repressiveness of blank bits of paper.
    It is undemocratic. I'm sure you'd love such a system in Scotland so your SNP boot boys could look over everyone's shoulder to make sure they vote correctly.
    Bullshitty anecdoter gets pwned then whines, plus ca change.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257
    The capture by this ghastly creature of the highest political office on the planet was a tragedy of the highest order. The consequence is that many of the least desirable aspects of human nature have been given a boost and the multitudes of people who possess more than their fair share of those aspects are feeling good about themselves. It’s dreadful. He simply has to go. Nevertheless it is important that President Trump does not exit by anything other than the way he entered, because only in those circumstances can the socio-cultural impact be reversed. Impeachment, heart attack, a bullet, none of these will do the trick. They would if anything achieve the opposite. It has to be defeat at the ballot box in 2020 and the defeat must be crushing. Now one might assume that the many and varied defects of character becoming ever more obvious would make such an outcome inevitable. That is what I used to think but I no longer do. Sufficient of his supporters are sufficiently gullible to keep buying his shtick and I fear this will remain the case as long as the economy holds up. “It’s the economy, stupid”. Or more accurately, it’s the economy and they are stupid. So what we need – what we must hope and pray for – is a recession in the US, starting next year and still going strong the following November. A nice big one, a real “brother can you spare a dime?” affair. Preferably a highly unusual (unique even) type of recession that does not spread beyond America and within that once great nation affects only those who voted for the bozo.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2018
    Thanks to DoubleCarpet for the election night links.
  • Mr. 86, cheers for posting, but we must hope that's very wrong (and the Moderates exceed expectations).

    Anyway, I'm off for the evening. Play nicely, everyone.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    tlg86 said:
    Swedish Democrats still up 4% on 2012 though even on that poll, they are not going away but it looks as expected that the Social Democrats will again lead the next government
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    So I think that gives:

    Left - 41%
    Right - 40%
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:


    Because you know it's an absence of a clear choice, "look at that man, he picked up a blank one instead of X".

    Awful system.

    Oh well, at least we've moved on from 'they almost literally make you pick up a ballot paper with swastikas on it' to the undemocratic repressiveness of blank bits of paper.
    It is undemocratic. I'm sure you'd love such a system in Scotland so your SNP boot boys could look over everyone's shoulder to make sure they vote correctly.
    Bullshitty anecdoter gets pwned then whines, plus ca change.
    Except I'm right, the voting system is not secret and now you are trying to defend an indefensible system because you agree with its aims.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,081
    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:



    Why not just have an X in a box?

    Precisely. The whole point of doing it in secret is to avoid voter intimidation. Not as effective when you can see what kind of ballot paper they are picking up.
    Surely they have a large number of people who use the blank paper on principle, rather than to hide a 'guilty' secret? I would.

    Good evening, everyone.
  • We wuz robbed by the intimidatory blank sheets of paper!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    Sweden Democrats second with this exit poll


    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1038850480187879425?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    edited September 2018
    Second exit poll with Sweden Democrats second looks more accurate, it had double the sample of the first exit poll but we shall see.

    If Swedish Democrats do indeed take second they will follow Lega Nord and Front National as a populist right party having overtaken the main centre right party
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2018
    Second exit poll:
    SAP 26.2, V 9.0, MP 4.2 = 39.4
    M 17.8, C 8.9, KD 7.4, L 5.5 = 39.6
    SD 19.2
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Most runs test career
    5. KC Sangakkara (SL) 12400
    6. AN Cook (ENG) 12369

    Needs 76 to overtake.

    Would be a shame, I think, as Sangakkara was a better bat.
    Sangakkara averaged something truly ridiculous like 70 as a specialist batsman. What dragged his overall average and probably the number of runs scored down for him was that for the first third of his career he had to keep wicket.
    Some fun Sanga stats:
    https://www.cricketcountry.com/articles/kumar-sangakkara-15-batting-records-of-the-legend-322078

    Absolute top bloke, too.
    It's not just 5th vs 6th highest runscorer that's at stake but highest vs 2nd highest lefthander.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    AnneJGP said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:



    Why not just have an X in a box?

    Precisely. The whole point of doing it in secret is to avoid voter intimidation. Not as effective when you can see what kind of ballot paper they are picking up.
    Surely they have a large number of people who use the blank paper on principle, rather than to hide a 'guilty' secret? I would.

    Good evening, everyone.
    Yeah, but if you were being intimidated, you wouldn't be asked to pick up the blank ballot paper...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    Second exit poll with Sweden Democrats second looks more accurate, it had double the sample of the first exit poll but we shall see.

    If Swedish Democrats do indeed take second they will follow Lega Nord and Front National as a populist right party having overtaken the main centre right party

    The real results will be interesting, as they always are.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    How is that opinion in any way controversial? That would imply that there are people who agree with it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    We wuz robbed by the intimidatory blank sheets of paper!
    In my experience far rightists are rarely shy in expressing their opinions.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    @DoubleCarpet

    Good as ever to see you sir. Keep the data coming.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888
    edited September 2018
    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:
    Swedish Democrats still up 4% on 2012 though even on that poll, they are not going away but it looks as expected that the Social Democrats will again lead the next government
    4 for Lofven next PM on Betfair if you think that.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Last time the 4 exit polls averaged 9.85% for the Sweden Democrats and they got 12.9%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Swedish_general_election,_2014
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2018
    Last time the 4 exit polls averaged 9.85% for the Sweden Democrats and they got 12.9%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Swedish_general_election,_2014
  • If those exit polls are right then, yet again, that's simply superb tipping by Alastair Meeks.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141

    If those exit polls are right then, yet again, that's simply superb tipping by Alastair Meeks.

    Yup.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    edited September 2018

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:
    Swedish Democrats still up 4% on 2012 though even on that poll, they are not going away but it looks as expected that the Social Democrats will again lead the next government
    4 for Lofven next PM on Betfair if you think that.
    Though with centre left and centre right blocks almost tied based on the exit polls he may have to follow Merkel and lead a Social Democrat and Moderate Grand Coalition to keep the Sweden Democrats out of any role in Government
  • HYUFD said:

    Sweden Democrats second with this exit poll


    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1038850480187879425?s=20

    How have they ended up with two exit polls?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited September 2018
    HYUFD said:

    Second exit poll with Sweden Democrats second looks more accurate, it had double the sample of the first exit poll but we shall see.

    If Swedish Democrats do indeed take second they will follow Lega Nord and Front National as a populist right party having overtaken the main centre right party

    Quite a big difference in the two exit polls - I suppose we will need to await the actual results. Is there a shy SD factor. The second has more than double the sample size and seems to match recent polling more accurately.

    Its quite confusing though with the top party being S&D and the second being SD?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206

    HYUFD said:

    Sweden Democrats second with this exit poll


    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1038850480187879425?s=20

    How have they ended up with two exit polls?
    Different pollsters
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Second exit poll with Sweden Democrats second looks more accurate, it had double the sample of the first exit poll but we shall see.

    If Swedish Democrats do indeed take second they will follow Lega Nord and Front National as a populist right party having overtaken the main centre right party

    Quite a big difference in the two exit polls - I suppose we will need to await the actual results. Is there a shy SD factor.

    Its quite confusing though with the top party being S&D and the second being SD?
    There was some evidence of shy SD voters in 2014 but we will see
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,081
    RobD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:



    Why not just have an X in a box?

    Precisely. The whole point of doing it in secret is to avoid voter intimidation. Not as effective when you can see what kind of ballot paper they are picking up.
    Surely they have a large number of people who use the blank paper on principle, rather than to hide a 'guilty' secret? I would.

    Good evening, everyone.
    Yeah, but if you were being intimidated, you wouldn't be asked to pick up the blank ballot paper...
    Indeed, but I thought it was a passive intimidation that was under discussion, more like social disapproval of smoking.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    If those exit polls are right then, yet again, that's simply superb tipping by Alastair Meeks.

    I owe him a bevvy too!
  • https://data.val.se/val/val2018/valnatt/R/rike/index.html

    official vote count - 2/6004 stations reporting
  • HYUFD said:

    Sweden Democrats second with this exit poll


    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1038850480187879425?s=20

    How have they ended up with two exit polls?
    Query if they are
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:


    Because you know it's an absence of a clear choice, "look at that man, he picked up a blank one instead of X".

    Awful system.

    Oh well, at least we've moved on from 'they almost literally make you pick up a ballot paper with swastikas on it' to the undemocratic repressiveness of blank bits of paper.
    It is undemocratic. I'm sure you'd love such a system in Scotland so your SNP boot boys could look over everyone's shoulder to make sure they vote correctly.
    In Scotland we leave the cheating to the unionists , either of the red or blue versions.
  • HYUFD said:

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Second exit poll with Sweden Democrats second looks more accurate, it had double the sample of the first exit poll but we shall see.

    If Swedish Democrats do indeed take second they will follow Lega Nord and Front National as a populist right party having overtaken the main centre right party

    Quite a big difference in the two exit polls - I suppose we will need to await the actual results. Is there a shy SD factor.

    Its quite confusing though with the top party being S&D and the second being SD?
    There was some evidence of shy SD voters in 2014 but we will see
    It would have to be way off.

    I honestly can't see how 5/1 is close to fair.

    Mind you I bolstered my position at 8/1 so happy enough to let it run now.
  • HYUFD said:
    Climate change on the left, and cultural change on the right, is driving fragmentation of the traditional parties in Sweden.

    If they want it to stop they need to have answers to both.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Greens are perilously close to the 4% threshold with the state broadcaster exit poll which puts them on 4.2%.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    HYUFD said:

    Sweden Democrats second with this exit poll


    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1038850480187879425?s=20

    How have they ended up with two exit polls?
    They had 4 exit polls last time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206

    HYUFD said:
    Climate change on the left, and cultural change on the right, is driving fragmentation of the traditional parties in Sweden.

    If they want it to stop they need to have answers to both.
    Yes, it looks like the UKIP style Swedish Democrats were the biggest gainers in this election followed by the Corbynite Left Party at the expense of the Moderates, the Swedish Tories' sister party and the Social Democrats who are basically Brownite Labour
  • If those exit polls are right then, yet again, that's simply superb tipping by Alastair Meeks.

    Again.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    Pulpstar said:
    Probably crashed as normally about 1 man and his dog outside Sweden take any interest in Swedish general election night!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Why are Swe Democrats still 6/6.2 with those exit polls ?!

    I've stuck another 300 on the social Democrats - someone tell me why I'm wrong quickly lol !
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    edited September 2018

    There is a twitter account saying that the first result is from Hyppeln - 7% swing from S to SD; 16.5% from Moderates to SD.

    That would be a significantly higher swing to the SDs than both exit polls then, especially the Moderates to SD Swing but may just be 1 constituency, otherwise a 'shy' SD voter factor?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:


    Because you know it's an absence of a clear choice, "look at that man, he picked up a blank one instead of X".

    Awful system.

    Oh well, at least we've moved on from 'they almost literally make you pick up a ballot paper with swastikas on it' to the undemocratic repressiveness of blank bits of paper.
    It is undemocratic. I'm sure you'd love such a system in Scotland so your SNP boot boys could look over everyone's shoulder to make sure they vote correctly.
    Are we back on Ruth Davidson's burly men?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Whosoever it was that tipped the SD below 22% is a Saint.
This discussion has been closed.