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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A bet that seems like a guaranteed 14% return in just over 4 months
Video: Footage of Jeremy Corbyn, in yellow, taking on his critics in the Parliamentary Labour Party. NSFW
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Weren’t you responsible for some of that ?
Only way I can see a contest would be if the PLP get behind one of their Jewish members, with the intention of making the contest explicitly about the anti semitism problem. If Corbyn can’t put the issue to bed but still wins with the members, that might be the trigger for an MP split.
On second thoughts, good tip TSE.
As this Politico article argues, on the one hand, there is a pretty strong belief on the socialist left that Corbyn is essential to their electoral appeal, and prospects of ever forming a government (and that is probably correct); on the other, Corbyn is extremely unlikely to resile from positions he he sees as justified by his personal beliefs.
https://www.politico.eu/article/jeremy-corbyn-anti-semitism-labour-wont-compromise-no-matter-the-cost/
His leadership is likely safe for quite some time. Whether his rather strange moral certainties will convince enough people for him ever to be prime minister is another matter.
I think a further challenge (perhaps over the #peoplesvote) is far more likely than SDP2.
I have a great dislike of short odds bets. On the other hand, I have a great dislike of rampant bad luck too, and that hasn't stopped the F1 season betting...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/08/16/sir-patrick-stewart-quits-labour-party-reveals-awkward-encounter/
The silence over the summer from Labour MPs has been deafening. Summats up....
The question is what would the new party stand for? We know a lot of them want to stand against Brexit, but that’s a very minority sport outside Westminster and will be largely moot in six months’ time.
England 2.8
India 2.2
Draw 5.2
Value a little with England at this point, and lay the draw as there’s not rain forecast.
Laying the draw provides a better return than TSE’s tip, doesn’t require knowledge of the intricacies of Labour MPs’ thoughts, and it’ll pay out in the next four days.
And whose silly idea was it to start on Saturday? I’d forgotten it was on until the first day had finished.
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/08/17/police_it_move_aws_home_office_contract/
Can anyone imagine even the smallest American police force using a foreign company like this? The government needs to get behind British business like the American government does for its own, to give them a fighting chance of becoming competitive in a world market (and in the meantime employing British staff who spend their money in British shops, and who unlike Amazon, pay British taxes.
This is particularly true with Labour offering free unicorns and the Conservatives offering financial punishment beatings.
I'm just doubtful whether any existing members of Parliament could deliver such a party. Labour or Tory, they are all tainted. Meanwhile, as we are finding out with Trump, Tsipras, the Chavistas, Five Star, Orban and those nutters in Austria, outsiders tend to be outsiders for a very good reason.
Unless England get a first innings lead of over 200, they will lose this Test. No way can they chase on this surface with Ashwin bowling. And I don't see them getting north of 500 either given the poor quality of their batting lineup.
I cannot see major defections from either party, and far more likely is for each to have a radical change of direction under new leadership.
Mr. JohnL, but they have to usually win a lot. If I back (with equal stakes) a septet of seven to one on bets and a single one fails, I'm in the red.
As far as the results concerned, looks like a draw unless a) England collapse in their first innings or b) India do so in teir second. I would expect that if England get a decent score... ie about the same as India....... that will take us into the fourth day.
" I'm a Birmingham fan and I have watched all 8 episodes - it is a fantastic sporting documentary and I loved seeing how the other half live.
At one point I even thought I'd sooner sit in the Man City laundry than St Andrews as even that was incredibly impressive.
But sadly it shows that teams like mine are a billion miles away, and all we can do is dream about another Sheikh talking an interest...".
Given recent form, the odds on one team or the other collapsing horrifically must be quite short. I'm still laying the draw.
I am not a Corbynista, but am disgusted by the widespread hatred displayed towards Corbyn and his supporters, both on this site and in much of the media. It is reasonable to criticise, in a dignified way, his policies and also his lack of competence/ability, for which there is some evidence. However, he is a principled man and a tireless campaigner against racism and oppression in all its forms throughout the world, and deserves to be treated with respect, even if one disagrees with him.
The British public don't like unfair treatment and can see which groups are hounding him; it is particularly unwise for a minority group to be at the forefront of these abusive attacks. They are also unnecessary - he is an elderly man and will step down as LOTO of his own free will sooner rather than later, although I agree not before 29/3/19. His opponents would be better advised to keep shtum and bide their time. The next GE is not due until 2022.
I fully appreciate that paranoia and a focus on the enemy within is classical cult like behaviour but there are some indications that the acolytes believe some sort of a split is imminent. I continue to think not at this point.
"However, he is a principled man and a tireless campaigner against racism and oppression in all its forms throughout the world, and deserves to be treated with respect, even if one disagrees with him."
I look forward to the footage taken of him praying at the graves of the victims of the Munich attack.
I can't see sufficient numbers of Labour MPs being wiling to jump to an SDP2, and it needs to be more than half of them for any real effect on Corbyn.
Assuming it happens as scheduled in 2022, I think the next election will be a re-run of 1992, with the Conservatives under a new leader holding on against a clearly unsuitable LotO - with the added dimension of Labour still at war with itself. JC will be aged 73 by then, and will probably retire.
According to Lansman, who has known Corbyn since the 1980s, the Labour leader is an “ethical socialist,” who is unshakeable from his core convictions, no matter the personal or political cost. “He is not really ideological,” Lansman said. “He is certainly less ideological than John [McDonnell]. But he’s also less compromising.”
Fundamentally, Corbyn’s politics are rooted in a sense of political morality, not economics, Lansman says...
Anyway, have to be off. Have a good morning.
Everything turns on how England bats later today. They have been pretty fragile of late, hidden by the even greater vulnerability of India. I think runs on the board make India favourite.
How does 'centrist' (to use a horrendous term) Labour return to dominance?
Not a coherent plan for government of course, but quite possible to depose the Tories that way.
No sign of him showing any respect to the victims of Munich or the IRA
If he was true to his word and not a phoney he would have embraced everyone
The three quidders were got rid of at the 2016 contest, by raising the price of associate membership to a purple beer token.
It won't happen quickly, but these things usually sort themselves out in the end. It will likely be the realisation that there will be Tory governments until they nominate someone sensible, that will eventually sort things out.
And that must be a factor for Labour MPs to mull over with SDP2. It is almost impossible to see how the party will have come together by the next election - barring massive deselectons.
That said, I would take a Corbyn government right now over the current shower - we have lives to save from the ministrations of McVey and the DWP. I know that many posters disagree with my moral arguments for a Labour government and against a Tory government but thats I am sticking with the party. Its not a brand. Its a moral crusade. A few year diversion by a clutch of trot entryists doesn't change what the movement is and what it represents.
I'd define an activist as an unemployed and unemployable person, so convinced of the righteousness of their own views, they will live to force them on others. On that basis, Jezza fails the activist test. but like an activist, he is impervious to others' views.
I had time for Michael Foot, and I thought Kinnock was under-rated, but Jezza? Sorry.
Next time, Corbyn could win. What are 'sceptical' MPs going to do? Not support a Labour Government? They'll just line up behind him, unless they split first.
Mr. Sandpit, we'll see how things pan out.
Mr. Pioneers, Labour under Corbyn isn't a moral crusade, despite his fixation on the Holy Land.
He does drink occasionally.
I think it far from certain that Jezza will get to annoint his successor. It is the nature of leadership defenestrations that the endorsement of the outgoing leader counts for little. When change is wanted it can even be damaging to the candidate.
*much of that Looneyism is now Tory party policy...
There are still too many gamblers betting with their hearts, and not their heads, on both Corbyn and Brexit, even though the value isn't as extreme as it once was.
There are some good prices for him leaving in 2020 and 2021 with Ladbrokes, 5/1 and 10/1 respectively, when is even better with the odds boost.
I've used that plus the Paddypower 10/11 Corbyn leaving office in 2020+ to do a bit of a combo: I almost break even in 2019 and in any year beyond 2022+, whilst more than doubling my money in 2020 and 2021 if he does a retirement/handover/ill health.
Corbyn's circle want to smash capitalism, an act that would have the most serious of consequences for everyone including the poorest.
However, you are to be respected for your loyalty and hopes that the worst expectations of a Corbyn government will be curtailed.
Many will not be so sanquine
I can see no difference in putting Corbyn in Downing Street than a Scargill or a Red Robbo. They are all economic incompetents.
What happened next?
The sensible Lab MPs must be thinking this through, and know they need to do something sooner rather than later - but so far no-one looks like jumping. Maybe they can see that the biggest long-term risk to the party is that the deselections happen - and by jumping ship they ensure that outcome.
1. Violence post WW1 in 1918/9, involving extreme left-wing and right radical forces
2. The attempted Putsch on 9/11/1923
3. The attempted assassination of AH in 1939
4. The allied bombing in WW2 which caused thousands of deaths
5. The attack at the 1972 Olympics
6. The Oktoberfest bombing in 1980
7. The terrorist shooting in 2016
6,000 miles of roads washed away and despair abounds
I would like to think TM will offer help to India paid out of our foreign aid budget.
Surely that is what it is for
If Tories are sanguine about "f*** business", then why shouldn't the rest of us say the same about other economic policies?
Perhaps Labour need a new Kinnock? He was a hate figure for the tory press but those tended to be personal attacks on his competence. Easier to do when you lead from the front, as he did. Jezza is not a front man and therein lies the danger. He can end up far more of a puppet than 'Kinnochio' ever was.
By changing rules and personnel, the Jezzarites can set the scene for a real takeover by Militant-types, something Kinnock would never have allowed.
Nobody knows anything.
The Tory reputation for economic competence is trashed.
The choice on what happens will be made by all mps when they vote on the deal or no deal
The conservative government have the responsiblity of dealing with Brexit and are bound to come under fire from the two extremes - hard Brexit or remain
A Corbyn Govt would use the UK as a sandpit for a full blown 21st Century experiment in neo-marxist economics.
Corbyn could well abstain, purely because it makes the reselections easier.
Shout out to Rob S for getting Crowd Scores fixed.
A true tory will point out that some people game and cheat the system, so we must stop this. This is true.
A true lefty will point out that some people are being failed by the harsh rules, so we must ease them. This is also true.
Edit - A Jezzarite just wants to smash the system and make it all unnecessary by invoking the words of Trotsky.
But for many Leavers, particularly in the provinces Taking Back Control was not about abstract sovereignty, but rather Taking Back Control of economic distribution of wealth.
The Tories are riding a Populist tiger, and if they fall, will get eaten.
Looks like many thousands if not millions will be facing situations similar to that though.
You Corbynistas need to expunged from politics.
Brexit will be an albatross around the Tory neck. Chequers is unpopular, and only a starting point as far as the EU is concerned. Other MPs are not going to vote for it.
Personally, I think Transition Limbo BINO Brexit is the most likely place that we will be next year.
In fact, though, I agree with you that they would not launch a 21st century socialist experiment (leaving aside the fact that such a thing would hardly be an experiment given the number of times it has been tried and failed disastrously). I think it's naked incompetence and dithering that would squash the economy under a Corbyn government, not cold and logical mendacity. Apart from anything else the latter requires a degree of intelligence and coherence that he simply doesn't have.
I think he'll back a second referendum anyway. Another way he'll compromise a bit, whichyet further undermines his opponents who then don't leave.
Another one is on summer holiday with his children there. I think he is OK though.
A rapidly falling deficit.
Record employment.
Low inflation.
Continuous growth.
Greater equality of incomes.
Lower taxes on the less well paid.
A NMW that has increased sharply.
Policies that encourage and reward work rather than benefit dependency.
There are problems. The trade deficit, student debt, a dysfunctional housing market, strains on public services especially in social care, insufficient investment in skills and training, some aspects of the gig economy, very modest increases in real wages as a result of poor productivity growth. But does anyone seriously think that Corbyn has credible answers to these issues or that he can maintain what the Tories have achieved since 2010?
May was determined to win on her own terms in 2017 and hid her Chancellor away with the result that the economic record (which was mainly Osborne's whom she detested) wasn't promoted the way it should have been. It was a serious mistake that should not be repeated.
Also, it would just be an excuse for a great number of senior officers to get on the curries and Kingfisher in New Delhi.
Also, it's "people" not "men". It's 2018.
I don't agree with Tory posters on here and they don't agree with me - thats politics. But my point about McVey and the DWP stands - the Tory ministers know their policies are literally killing people. Literally forcing people into abject poverty supported by food banks. At best they are ignoring their own evidence. At worst they don't care. A party which is "fuck business" as well as doing more than Thatcher ever did to fuck people needs to removed.
What will upset the Corbyn cultists is when the Corbyn government starts making compromises of "principles". Life isn't the start black and white they think it is, its all shades and too often the options are how much you lose not whether you win or not. They don't understand that. Yet for all that he gets attacked McDonnell does - he ran a tight ship at the GLC...
It's also possible, although unlikely, I'd suggest, that such could be a final act to try and regain the leadership for non-lunatics before splitting.
The sane wing of the PLP collectively needs to either split, or accept they're going to march into the next election with Corbyn as their leader and potential PM.
No Deal Brexit trashes that reputation though.
I hope the Indian government understands it can and should ask for foreign help. I mean, even we've accepted international help for lesser disasters in the past (2007 floods springs to mind).
Anyway, I have to go and pull out an eight foot horn with my name on it. I will see you all later.
From reports it sounds like there could be *millions* of people needing to be physically evacuated.