politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The road to No Deal: Brexit’s Rubik’s Cube may simply be too d
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The best metaphors are the ones which are also literally true....viewcode said:
If you'll forgive me, that was a very silly thing to believe. People don't act like that.ExiledInScotland said:... I had expected a rational mutually reasonable divorce process...
One of my consistent complaints against Leavers (list available upon request) is their naivete: the belief that just because an outcome is possible and desirable, it will happen. That's a stupid view to hold and the reason why I characterise Leavers such as Hannan, , BoJo, Cummings, etc as manchildren is their frequent espousal of this.
Too many people in government and Parliament have had prosperous lives and do not know how to handle things when things go wrong. Mike Tyson once said "everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face". Too many people in Parliament have not been punched enough in the face.0 -
Given that time isrunning out, isn't the lesser-known Rubik's Clock more appropriate?!0
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The Rubik’s cube is not particularly difficult. The trick is focusing on identifying the underlying patterns.0
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I think I do. You - rightly - do not want the Conservative party to be seen as a shelter for ethno-nationalists. Spot on. It must - and will be resisted. So yes, Johnson, Rees Mogg and Gove should be challenged IF they start to provide such shelter. The answer is that they are not - their words and deeds do not support that view. The only person I see in public life who is supplying shelter for completely unacceptable views - and who has demonstrated support for the IRA and Hamas - is Jeremy Corbyn.SouthamObserver said:
I am sorry that you do not understand what I am saying.ExiledInScotland said:
Fine. Ethno-nationalism is abhorrent because it can lead to fascism. It must be resisted. But the claims that it could become widespread in the Tories is the classic left wing shout of "Rascist" used to close down argument. The risk of fascism in one party is much less in my opinion than the demonstrated fact that the leader of the Labour Party has proven support for the IRA and Hamas.SouthamObserver said:
Absolutely. My point is aimed at the Conservative party as an institution. Labour did nothing when it should have because it did not see an issue, could not believe that it could ever become one, and now it has a major anti-Semitism problem because anti-Semites have seen a vehicle that will shelter them. Exactly the same thing will happen with the Conservative party and ethno-nationalists if Johnson, Rees Mogg and Gove are not loudly and unequivocally challenged about their actions by their colleagues, party members and the party machine.Casino_Royale said:
To be fair though there are a number of Leavers on here, and in public life, who want to leave the EU but also detest the American far-right and Putin, myself included.0 -
F1: pre-qualifying:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/07/hungary-pre-qualifying-2018.html
No tip, tempted as I was by a Finn for pole (each way) but there is quite a lot of news.0 -
There were two main ways to solve the cube.
1. Buy a book and learn the instructions.
2. Work it out from first principles.
With Brexit the problem is that whilst a number of books have been written, none of them work in practice given the completing political and economic demands.
Also nobody can agree what the final stage of the cube actually looks like.0 -
I thought the voters using the American political system elected Trump.Jonathan said:
He got Trump elected, is wealthy and connected and knows the inside workings of the White House. Whilst he is currently between projects and diminished relative to 2016, that doesn't mean he's not still dangerous and potentially useful to an aspiring right winger.JosiasJessop said:
Yes, it appears that way. I'd be massively surprised if Gove held any fascistic views.Sean_F said:
In Gove's case, it seems to amount to a couple of conversations about US politics.JosiasJessop said:
I'm not a Conservative, but:The_Apocalypse said:
Southam throughout this thread has also been comparing Labour’s antisemitism scandal with this, with few Conservatives responding to him on this matter, which I find a bit odd.rottenborough said:
1) This looks bad. What on Earth do Goe, Johnson, et al think they're going to gain from this?
2) To be fair, they're just talking. The anti-Semitism within Labour is now deep within its very soul.
3) I'm always bemused when links to 'fascists' and fascism are hideous and to be denigrated, yet links to Communists and communism are fine and dandy. IMV they're both hideous ideologies that have led to millions of deaths, and I'd like to see both consigned to the dustbin of history.
4) If the Conservatives were sensible, they'd launch a carefully-constructed (but truthful) inquiry into both anti-Semitism and Islamophobia within the party. Firstly, it would staunch what might be a very lucrative attack line by Labour if Labour were't mired in their own problems. Secondly, it would tell people within the party that they're not acceptable. There are potential downsides as well, but it would be hard for them to make as much a mess of it as Labour has.
5) The moment that JRM is a leading member of the Conservative Party is the moment I start actively campaigning against them.
But as I said: it looks bad. Politics is as much about spin and image as it is about truth and reality, and Bannon has the image of being an influential and rather controversial right-winger - in the US, of all places.
What's more, he's a fading star. I don't quite understand what they think they're going to gain from talking to him, and there's much to lose. If anything Bannon gains more, by inflating his sense of self-importance.
It'll have damaged them more than anything they might have gained from it.0 -
I'm a bit late to the party this morning (real life getting in the way again!) but thanks for a good thread header David.
Surely though the one element that is missing (as has probably already been pointed out downthread) is that a 2nd referendum, No Deal versus Remain, will be the only way out in the end.0 -
My current favourite story from George's paper:
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/10231260363750604820 -
Have they shared a platform with him?SouthamObserver said:
He has embraced the far right in Europe, white supremacists and ethno-nationalists in the US, and now he is hanging out with Rees Mogg, Johnson and Gove. I genuinely struggle to see how the latter three spending time with him is any different to Corbyn sharing platforms with anti-Semites.Jonathan said:
He got Trump elected, is wealthy and connected and knows the inside workings of the White House. Whilst he is currently between projects and diminished relative to 2016, that doesn't mean he's not still dangerous and potentially useful to an aspiring right winger.JosiasJessop said:Sean_F said:
In Gove's case, it seems to amount to a couple of conversations about US politics.JosiasJessop said:
I'm not a Conservative, but:The_Apocalypse said:
Southam throughout this thread has also been comparing Labour’s antisemitism scandal with this, with few Conservatives responding to him on this matter, which I find a bit odd.rottenborough said:
1) This looks bad. What on Earth do Goe, Johnson, et al think they're going to gain from this?
2) To be fair, they're just talking. The anti-Semitism within Labour is now deep within its very soul.
3) I'm always bemused when links to 'fascists' and fascism are hideous and to be denigrated, yet links to Communists and communism are fine and dandy. IMV they're both hideous ideologies that have led to millions of deaths, and I'd like to see both consigned to the dustbin of history.
4) If the Conservatives were sensible, they'd launch a carefully-constructed (but truthful) inquiry into both anti-Semitism and Islamophobia within the party. Firstly, it would staunch what might be a very lucrative attack line by Labour if Labour were't mired in their own problems. Secondly, it would tell people within the party that they're not acceptable. There are potential downsides as well, but it would be hard for them to make as much a mess of it as Labour has.
5) The moment that JRM is a leading member of the Conservative Party is the moment I start actively campaigning against them.
What's more, he's a fading star. I don't quite understand what they think they're going to gain from talking to him, and there's much to lose. If anything Bannon gains more, by inflating his sense of self-importance.
It'll have damaged them more than anything they might have gained from it.0 -
"Bannon is a right-wing nationalist and a populist, which sets him apart from traditional conservatives, but as of this writing, the evidence that he is a white nationalist is weak"viewcode said:
I think he's been consistently anti-Islamic and the purpose of his attempt to create a pan-European far-right alliance is to oppose the Islamic horde (right word?) that he sees menacing Europe. My objections to him are:ExiledInScotland said:
I'm no apologist for Steve Bannon - I actually hadn't looked into him until I saw your post - but I've spent the last 10 minutes on google and cannot find anything where he says (and not by heresay) that one group is superior to another. If anything the only specific example seems to be from 2017 where he says that white supremacists are idiots. I see lots of quotes where he talks about asian CEOs, black lives matter, the neo-fascists and the alt-right where the thread is that he sees what he wants to see. As does everyone I guess.Nigelb said:
Which is something that Bannon does claim.ExiledInScotland said:
Bannon is an idiot. Taking Bannon's advice makes you an idiot. We shouldn't vote for idiots. But not all idiots are fascists.JosiasJessop said:
I'm not a Conservative, but:
1) This looks bad. What on Earth do Goe, Johnson, et al think they're going to gain from this?
2) To be fair, they're just talking. The anti-Semitism within Labour is now deep within its very soul.
[snip]
5) The moment that JRM is a leading member of the Conservative Party is the moment I start actively campaigning against them.
The right goes over the edge to fascism when it says that their group identity is superior to another....
I still think he's an idiot.
1) The cure would be worse than the disease
2) He should not be interfering in British politics
3) His ability to exploit a weakness in polite British society that welcomes the wealthy and powerful regardless of politics, criminality or immorality. See also Russian oligarchs, African genocidaires, German war criminals,...
(George Hawley - 'Making Sense of the Alt-Right', p.129)
(written in 2017, so things may have changed).
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O/T I am not much of a cycling fan but fancy watching to see if Thomas can more or less nail the TDF this aft. Question for those who know, what time should I tune in? I understand Thomas goes last in the time trial as he's in the Yellow Jersey.0
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Greece has been massively subsidised by the EU, which of course is the reason it is keen to stay in.ExiledInScotland said:
You are right of course. It doesn't address the fact that Greece has been criucified on the altar of a political project. Ask Greek OAPs who cannot afford their prescription medication or the mass young unemployed about how the EU is working for them.Beverley_C said:
Sorry. I completely disagree with this. People today are healthier, better fed and with better living conditions than in the whole of previous human history. Even the last few decades have shown marked improvement.stodge said:
It was the same when the Industrial Revolution depopulated the countryside - three centuries on and nothing has changed. The fundamental inhumanity of capitalism predicated as it is on individual greed shines through and before anyone asks, socialism or Marxism would be many times worse. At least with capitalism you have a semblance of choice.
And no one has ever accused me of being a capitalist0 -
Yes.SunnyJim said:If the referendum had resulted in a very narrow Remain win that was accompanied with a promise of reform of our relationship with the EU...and that reform was not to leave voters liking...would Remainers be open to a 2nd referendum?
Definitely.
Assuming you mean that the reform that was promised was not forthcoming, yes? Or that the deal seemed to be changing badly?
I mentioned this the other day. If what we thought we were voting on was not what we got, then it would no longer have democratic legitimacy.
Ah - maybe you should wait for a reply before engaging with your image of what people will say?SunnyJim said:
They would be screaming from the rooftops that the argument had been settled for a generation and no referendum should ever be offered on the subject again.
The hypocrisy is breathtaking.
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It might be a chance for a way out, but is not a guarantee of a way out, given there will be no guarantee it will actually settle things.Benpointer said:I'm a bit late to the party this morning (real life getting in the way again!) but thanks for a good thread header David.
Surely though the one element that is missing (as has probably already been pointed out downthread) is that a 2nd referendum, No Deal versus Remain, will be the only way out in the end.0 -
Difficult to see any other option now, as the alternative is a GE, which Tory MPs would have to vote for and so usher Corbyn into No.10 3 years early.Benpointer said:I'm a bit late to the party this morning (real life getting in the way again!) but thanks for a good thread header David.
Surely though the one element that is missing (as has probably already been pointed out downthread) is that a 2nd referendum, No Deal versus Remain, will be the only way out in the end.0 -
A pox on both warring factions i say!!John_M said:My current favourite story from George's paper:
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/10231260363750604820 -
As I say, I am sorry that you do not understand my argument. Labour did not become a haven for anti-Semites overnight, it was a process. It happened because nobody acted to stop it at an early enough stage. Johnson, Rees Mogg and Gove are now at the stage of spending time with a very prominent ethno-nationalist. If the Tories just let that happen, what kind of message do you think it sends to other ethno-nationalists? It will be the same one that was sent to anti-Semites when Labour did nothing about the far left hanging out with them.ExiledInScotland said:
I think I do. You - rightly - do not want the Conservative party to be seen as a shelter for ethno-nationalists. Spot on. It must - and will be resisted. So yes, Johnson, Rees Mogg and Gove should be challenged IF they start to provide such shelter. The answer is that they are not - their words and deeds do not support that view. The only person I see in public life who is supplying shelter for completely unacceptable views - and who has demonstrated support for the IRA and Hamas - is Jeremy Corbyn.SouthamObserver said:
I am sorry that you do not understand what I am saying.ExiledInScotland said:
Fine. Ethno-nationalism is abhorrent because it can lead to fascism. It must be resisted. But the claims that it could become widespread in the Tories is the classic left wing shout of "Rascist" used to close down argument. The risk of fascism in one party is much less in my opinion than the demonstrated fact that the leader of the Labour Party has proven support for the IRA and Hamas.SouthamObserver said:
Absolutely. My point is aimed at the Conservative party as an institution. Labour did nothing when it should have because it did not see an issue, could not believe that it could ever become one, and now it has a major anti-Semitism problem because anti-Semites have seen a vehicle that will shelter them. Exactly the same thing will happen with the Conservative party and ethno-nationalists if Johnson, Rees Mogg and Gove are not loudly and unequivocally challenged about their actions by their colleagues, party members and the party machine.Casino_Royale said:
To be fair though there are a number of Leavers on here, and in public life, who want to leave the EU but also detest the American far-right and Putin, myself included.
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It's about a 30 minute TT so unless he crashes badly he will win the GC. It's basically already over.Benpointer said:O/T I am not much of a cycling fan but fancy watching to see if Thomas can more or less nail the TDF this aft. Question for those who know, what time should I tune in? I understand Thomas goes last in the time trial as he's in the Yellow Jersey.
The more interesting question is a how second rate classics rider turns into a Tour winner at age 32...0 -
There are more than two ways to solve the Rubiks Cube including:Verulamius said:There were two main ways to solve the cube.
1. Buy a book and learn the instructions.
2. Work it out from first principles.
With Brexit the problem is that whilst a number of books have been written, none of them work in practice given the completing political and economic demands.
Also nobody can agree what the final stage of the cube actually looks like.
3, Cheat (as others have already said on this thread)
4. Pay someone else to do it.
These may, or may not, be applicable to Brexit.
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Agreed but it's 'no guarantee of a way out' versus 'no way out'. It's going to happen.kle4 said:
It might be a chance for a way out, but is not a guarantee of a way out, given there will be no guarantee it will actually settle things.Benpointer said:I'm a bit late to the party this morning (real life getting in the way again!) but thanks for a good thread header David.
Surely though the one element that is missing (as has probably already been pointed out downthread) is that a 2nd referendum, No Deal versus Remain, will be the only way out in the end.0 -
On the article:
“I did once solve the cube. I peeled off the stickers and put them back so as to form the completed design.”
I don't know if it's relevant to the analogy or not, but if you did that, you risked making it legitimately insoluble in future if it ever got re-scrambled.0 -
So you don't spread Super Gonorrhoea if you stay in?John_M said:My current favourite story from George's paper:
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/10231260363750604820 -
I see Cummings has taken Codswallop to task:
https://tinyurl.com/y75esl53
If you want to be treated like Bob Woodward, you should be careful about facts. If you’d done Watergate, Nixon would have been able to trash the story and get away with it.0 -
Perhaps they sorted out a long standing asthma problem which had been holding him back.Dura_Ace said:
It's about a 30 minute TT so unless he crashes badly he will win the GC. It's basically already over.Benpointer said:O/T I am not much of a cycling fan but fancy watching to see if Thomas can more or less nail the TDF this aft. Question for those who know, what time should I tune in? I understand Thomas goes last in the time trial as he's in the Yellow Jersey.
The more interesting question is a how second rate classics rider turns into a Tour winner at age 32...0 -
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/26/hundreds-storm-border-fence-spanish-enclave-north-africa-ceuta-spain-migration
"Hundreds storm border fence into Spain's north Africa enclave of Ceuta
Incident follows warnings over country’s ability to cope with rising migration numbers"0 -
How ?Andy_Cooke said:On the article:
“I did once solve the cube. I peeled off the stickers and put them back so as to form the completed design.”
I don't know if it's relevant to the analogy or not, but if you did that, you risked making it legitimately insoluble in future if it ever got re-scrambled.
I think you're wrong as the recoloured cube is by definition solved.0 -
"No-one I know ever solved one though." I know I went to a grammar school, but still. It's hard to imagine what godforsaken corner of the UK was completely devoid of the gumption necessary to solve a Rubik's cube.0
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A recent highly publicised case was of a man who contracted the world’s worst super-gonorrhoea and brought it back to the UK.John_M said:My current favourite story from George's paper:
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/1023126036375060482
Meanwhile outbreaks of measles in England and Wales have repeatedly been linked to those in countries in eastern Europe while, in 2017, a multi-country outbreak of salmonella was linked to Polish eggs.
So we're getting super-gonorrhea, the measles and salmonella from the EU.....and Brexit is the problem?0 -
tlg86 said:
I see Cummings has taken Codswallop to task:
https://tinyurl.com/y75esl53
If you want to be treated like Bob Woodward, you should be careful about facts. If you’d done Watergate, Nixon would have been able to trash the story and get away with it.
Wonder how far back in The Observer this week's retraction "Clarification" of last week's Front Page Lead will be tomorrow....isn't the record page 40.....so far....?0 -
He's lost more than 120 secs to Dumoulin before in similar duration TTs, so not completely foregone conclusion.Dura_Ace said:
It's about a 30 minute TT so unless he crashes badly he will win the GC. It's basically already over.Benpointer said:O/T I am not much of a cycling fan but fancy watching to see if Thomas can more or less nail the TDF this aft. Question for those who know, what time should I tune in? I understand Thomas goes last in the time trial as he's in the Yellow Jersey.
The more interesting question is a how second rate classics rider turns into a Tour winner at age 32...
Regarding your 2nd point, maybe Sky just organise things better? Your implication, in the absence of evidence, that he must be cheating is a cheap shot but if he were, why aren't the others doing the same?0 -
The recoloured cube could always get rescrambled. If you didn't put the centre colours on the right opposing sides, the instructions to solve it fail on the last step.Pulpstar said:
How ?Andy_Cooke said:On the article:
“I did once solve the cube. I peeled off the stickers and put them back so as to form the completed design.”
I don't know if it's relevant to the analogy or not, but if you did that, you risked making it legitimately insoluble in future if it ever got re-scrambled.
I think you're wrong as the recoloured cube is by definition solved.0 -
Will she have to hand back her Orwell Prize?CarlottaVance said:tlg86 said:I see Cummings has taken Codswallop to task:
https://tinyurl.com/y75esl53
If you want to be treated like Bob Woodward, you should be careful about facts. If you’d done Watergate, Nixon would have been able to trash the story and get away with it.
Wonder how far back in The Observer this week's retraction "Clarification" of last week's Front Page Lead will be tomorrow....isn't the record page 40.....so far....?0 -
Seriously I think he’s been there or thereabouts for a while and now he’s made it. I’m no expert of cycling but I suspect he’s a 'one-trick pony’ and this is the year it all comes together.Ishmael_Z said:
Perhaps they sorted out a long standing asthma problem which had been holding him back.Dura_Ace said:
It's about a 30 minute TT so unless he crashes badly he will win the GC. It's basically already over.Benpointer said:O/T I am not much of a cycling fan but fancy watching to see if Thomas can more or less nail the TDF this aft. Question for those who know, what time should I tune in? I understand Thomas goes last in the time trial as he's in the Yellow Jersey.
The more interesting question is a how second rate classics rider turns into a Tour winner at age 32...
Having said that, I’m very worried by what appears to be quite a lot of chicken-counting on the part of the BBC’s commentators.0 -
Brexit is a scrambled cube with seven colours.Andy_Cooke said:
The recoloured cube could always get rescrambled. If you didn't put the centre colours on the right opposing sides, the instructions to solve it fail on the last step.Pulpstar said:
How ?Andy_Cooke said:On the article:
“I did once solve the cube. I peeled off the stickers and put them back so as to form the completed design.”
I don't know if it's relevant to the analogy or not, but if you did that, you risked making it legitimately insoluble in future if it ever got re-scrambled.
I think you're wrong as the recoloured cube is by definition solved.0 -
"G"s record in grand tours:Benpointer said:
He's lost more than 120 secs to Dumoulin before in similar duration TTs, so not completely foregone conclusion.Dura_Ace said:
It's about a 30 minute TT so unless he crashes badly he will win the GC. It's basically already over.Benpointer said:O/T I am not much of a cycling fan but fancy watching to see if Thomas can more or less nail the TDF this aft. Question for those who know, what time should I tune in? I understand Thomas goes last in the time trial as he's in the Yellow Jersey.
The more interesting question is a how second rate classics rider turns into a Tour winner at age 32...
Regarding your 2nd point, maybe Sky just organise things better? Your implication, in the absence of evidence, that he must be cheating is a cheap shot but if he were, why aren't the others doing the same?
140
118
67
31
80
140
22
15
69
15
DNF
DNF
and now: 1st.
Organisation, that's definitely what's happening. Organisation.0 -
To the best of my knowledge, these types of incursions at Ceuta and Melilla have been going on for a very long time. Of more interest will be seeing what happens when no more takers can be found for all the charity water taxis that keep going to collect migrants from 200 yards off the coast of Libya.AndyJS said:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/26/hundreds-storm-border-fence-spanish-enclave-north-africa-ceuta-spain-migration
"Hundreds storm border fence into Spain's north Africa enclave of Ceuta
Incident follows warnings over country’s ability to cope with rising migration numbers"
If, or more likely when, we get to this point then is there any legal mechanism available to attempt to force the Maltese or the Italians to accept them - and would anyone dare to use it?0 -
Interesting points. I don't know what the solution is. The fact that politics is currently split almost evenly between 4 parties may not be helpful to the situation.Acorn_Antiques said:
To the best of my knowledge, these types of incursions at Ceuta and Melilla have been going on for a very long time. Of more interest will be seeing what happens when no more takers can be found for all the charity water taxis that keep going to collect migrants from 200 yards off the coast of Libya.AndyJS said:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/26/hundreds-storm-border-fence-spanish-enclave-north-africa-ceuta-spain-migration
"Hundreds storm border fence into Spain's north Africa enclave of Ceuta
Incident follows warnings over country’s ability to cope with rising migration numbers"
If, or more likely when, we get to this point then is there any legal mechanism available to attempt to force the Maltese or the Italians to accept them - and would anyone dare to use it?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election#Nationwide_polling0 -
The posters citing the fact that No Deal is worse for both sides and thus there will be a deal may be right. I fear, though, they're overoptimistic.
On the famous Prisoner's Dilemma, both Prisoners "defecting" and dobbing each other in leads to a worse outcome than both co-operating. It is, however, very difficult to find a rational strategy that leads to both co-operating and both defecting is the most sensible thing to do for both of them.
[It's so well known that I'm probably being daft to explain it, but it goes like this: two suspects are picked up for a crime. Each are separately interviewed and told that there's some evidence, but not enough to charge them for the full crime. They'll both go down for one year.
If, however, the interviewee turns the other prisoner in, he'll get a plea bargain: he can go free while the other serves five years (and they can guarantee no blowback on the snitcher). They can simply put all responsibility on the other guy.
The catch is that if both dob each other in, both go down for the same crime anyway and both get three years.
While the case of both remaining silent gives the fewest years served and least impact overall on the pair of them, there is no option where remaining silent is better for an interviewee.
- Either the other guy has dobbed you in or not. If you turn him in, and he had snitched on you, you've mitigated a five year sentence on yourself down to three. So you really should turn him in if he's done that, right?
But if he hasn't dobbed you in and you turn him in, you go free rather than taking a one year sentence.]
The key issue is that No Deal is not the outcome of any deal or approval. It's what happens if there isn't one. If neither side can get any given deal through (and meeting all five of David's lines simultaneously), we stay in a No Deal state. It's where we are right now.
I hope they find an acceptable fudge to all parties. I'm not sure they will, and if they don't - if May can't get majority support for a given deal that the EU all support as well - we stay in No Deal as the days tick down.
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This years winner – Carole Cadwalladr – deserves high praise for the quality of her research ......ExiledInScotland said:
Will she have to hand back her Orwell Prize?CarlottaVance said:tlg86 said:I see Cummings has taken Codswallop to task:
https://tinyurl.com/y75esl53
If you want to be treated like Bob Woodward, you should be careful about facts. If you’d done Watergate, Nixon would have been able to trash the story and get away with it.
Wonder how far back in The Observer this week's retraction "Clarification" of last week's Front Page Lead will be tomorrow....isn't the record page 40.....so far....?
https://www.orwellfoundation.com/the-orwell-foundation/news-events/news-events/news/winners-orwell-prize-2018/
Up there with Obama's Nobel Prize.....people voting for what they hope will happen, not for what has happened...0 -
There's been other riders who managed one good grand tour so it can happen.Dura_Ace said:
"G"s record in grand tours:Benpointer said:
He's lost more than 120 secs to Dumoulin before in similar duration TTs, so not completely foregone conclusion.Dura_Ace said:
It's about a 30 minute TT so unless he crashes badly he will win the GC. It's basically already over.Benpointer said:O/T I am not much of a cycling fan but fancy watching to see if Thomas can more or less nail the TDF this aft. Question for those who know, what time should I tune in? I understand Thomas goes last in the time trial as he's in the Yellow Jersey.
The more interesting question is a how second rate classics rider turns into a Tour winner at age 32...
Regarding your 2nd point, maybe Sky just organise things better? Your implication, in the absence of evidence, that he must be cheating is a cheap shot but if he were, why aren't the others doing the same?
140
118
67
31
80
140
22
15
69
15
DNF
DNF
and now: 1st.
Organisation, that's definitely what's happening. Organisation.
Chris Horner winning the 2013 Vuelta at the age of 42 for example:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Horner#General_classification_results_timeline0 -
Yes, all over the front page of the Times, saw that when I was out shopping this morning.Sean_F said:O/T, and I know it's a Daily Mail story (but also reported in the Times) but what's happened to the Joseph Rowntree Foundation?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6001241/Joseph-Rowntree-Charity-Trust-investigated-giving-money-Teach-na-Failte-INLA.html
This comes on top of grants of £300,000 to Islamist outfit Cage, and £275,000 to Just Yorkshire, an organisation that brands Sarah Champion a racist.
Support for the winning combination of Anti-Western Islamist radicalism and violent Irish Republicanism suggests that the people doling out all this cash might have Corbynite sympathies. Hopefully some enterprising hacks are doing some digging in this area as we type.0 -
The easiest way to complete a rubik's cube was to break it and then reassemble it in a solved stage.
There was also a process by starting from a solved cube, turning the right hand row one turn downwards and then the top row one turn rightwards alternately for about ten minutes the cube would return to a solved stage.0 -
Dampish quail in Hungary. Should be fun.0
-
Fixed that for youfelix said:
I thoughtJonathan said:
He got Trump elected, is wealthy and connected and knows the inside workings of the White House. Whilst he is currently between projects and diminished relative to 2016, that doesn't mean he's not still dangerous and potentially useful to an aspiring right winger.JosiasJessop said:
Yes, it appears that way. I'd be massively surprised if Gove held any fascistic views.Sean_F said:
In Gove's case, it seems to amount to a couple of conversations about US politics.JosiasJessop said:
I'm not a Conservative, but:The_Apocalypse said:
Southam throughout this thread has also been comparing Labour’s antisemitism scandal with this, with few Conservatives responding to him on this matter, which I find a bit odd.rottenborough said:
1) This looks bad. What on Earth do Goe, Johnson, et al think they're going to gain from this?
2) To be fair, they're just talking. The anti-Semitism within Labour is now deep within its very soul.
3) I'm always bemused when links to 'fascists' and fascism are hideous and to be denigrated, yet links to Communists and communism are fine and dandy. IMV they're both hideous ideologies that have led to millions of deaths, and I'd like to see both consigned to the dustbin of history.
4) If the Conservatives were sensible, they'd launch a carefully-constructed (but truthful) inquiry into both anti-Semitism and Islamophobia within the party. Firstly, it would staunch what might be a very lucrative attack line by Labour if Labour were't mired in their own problems. Secondly, it would tell people within the party that they're not acceptable. There are potential downsides as well, but it would be hard for them to make as much a mess of it as Labour has.
5) The moment that JRM is a leading member of the Conservative Party is the moment I start actively campaigning against them.
But as I said: it looks bad. Politics is as much about spin and image as it is about truth and reality, and Bannon has the image of being an influential and rather controversial right-winger - in the US, of all places.
What's more, he's a fading star. I don't quite understand what they think they're going to gain from talking to him, and there's much to lose. If anything Bannon gains more, by inflating his sense of self-importance.
It'll have damaged them more than anything they might have gained from it.the votersPutin using the American political system elected Trump.
0 -
lol.ExiledInScotland said:
So you don't spread Super Gonorrhoea if you stay in?John_M said:My current favourite story from George's paper:
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/10231260363750604820 -
Dr Foxy’s Leicester City?another_richard said:
There's been other riders who managed one good grand tour so it can happen.Dura_Ace said:
"G"s record in grand tours:Benpointer said:
He's lost more than 120 secs to Dumoulin before in similar duration TTs, so not completely foregone conclusion.Dura_Ace said:
It's about a 30 minute TT so unless he crashes badly he will win the GC. It's basically already over.Benpointer said:O/T I am not much of a cycling fan but fancy watching to see if Thomas can more or less nail the TDF this aft. Question for those who know, what time should I tune in? I understand Thomas goes last in the time trial as he's in the Yellow Jersey.
The more interesting question is a how second rate classics rider turns into a Tour winner at age 32...
Regarding your 2nd point, maybe Sky just organise things better? Your implication, in the absence of evidence, that he must be cheating is a cheap shot but if he were, why aren't the others doing the same?
140
118
67
31
80
140
22
15
69
15
DNF
DNF
and now: 1st.
Organisation, that's definitely what's happening. Organisation.
Chris Horner winning the 2013 Vuelta at the age of 42 for example:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Horner#General_classification_results_timeline0 -
Could it be solved with a United Ireland an Independent Scotland, Welsh Parliament.Jonathan said:
Brexit is a scrambled cube with seven colours.Andy_Cooke said:
The recoloured cube could always get rescrambled. If you didn't put the centre colours on the right opposing sides, the instructions to solve it fail on the last step.Pulpstar said:
How ?Andy_Cooke said:On the article:
“I did once solve the cube. I peeled off the stickers and put them back so as to form the completed design.”
I don't know if it's relevant to the analogy or not, but if you did that, you risked making it legitimately insoluble in future if it ever got re-scrambled.
I think you're wrong as the recoloured cube is by definition solved.
Then a new way of governing England with a new voting system PR.
0 -
Yes - what is leftover could be called "Little England" and the perfect PM for it is already in ParliamentYorkcity said:Could it be solved with a United Ireland an Independent Scotland, Welsh Parliament.
Then a new way of governing England with a new voting system PR.
0 -
The migrant arrivals in Andalucia have rapidly become a big concern as the numbers are spiking after Sanchez effectively opened the doors with the boat from Italy. He's also offering free healthcare etc all of which may be terribly right on but it is sending entirely the wrong message to the traffikers.However, all will be well because no doubt France, Germany and the rest of the EU 27 will rapidly be offering to share the burden as they did with Ital...oh..wait a minute... Ahh..Spain is f*****.Acorn_Antiques said:
To the best of my knowledge, these types of incursions at Ceuta and Melilla have been going on for a very long time. Of more interest will be seeing what happens when no more takers can be found for all the charity water taxis that keep going to collect migrants from 200 yards off the coast of Libya.AndyJS said:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/26/hundreds-storm-border-fence-spanish-enclave-north-africa-ceuta-spain-migration
"Hundreds storm border fence into Spain's north Africa enclave of Ceuta
Incident follows warnings over country’s ability to cope with rising migration numbers"
If, or more likely when, we get to this point then is there any legal mechanism available to attempt to force the Maltese or the Italians to accept them - and would anyone dare to use it?0 -
Really - just how exactly were millions of Americans forced by Putin to vote for Trump. I wouldn't mind trying whatever it is you're smoking.not_on_fire said:
Fixed that for youfelix said:
I thoughtJonathan said:
He got Trump elected, is wealthy and connected and knows the inside workings of the White House. Whilst he is currently between projects and diminished relative to 2016, that doesn't mean he's not still dangerous and potentially useful to an aspiring right winger.JosiasJessop said:
Yes, it appears that way. I'd be massively surprised if Gove held any fascistic views.Sean_F said:
In Gove's case, it seems to amount to a couple of conversations about US politics.JosiasJessop said:
I'm not a Conservative, but:The_Apocalypse said:
Southam throughout this thread has also been comparing Labour’s antisemitism scandal with this, with few Conservatives responding to him on this matter, which I find a bit odd.rottenborough said:
1) This looks bad. What on Earth do Goe, Johnson, et al think they're going to gain from this?
2) To be fair, they're just talking. The anti-Semitism within Labour is now deep within its very soul.
4) If the Conservatives were sensible, they'd launch a carefully-constructed (but truthful) inquiry into both anti-Semitism and Islamophobia within the party. Firstly, it would staunch what might be a very lucrative attack line by Labour if Labour were't mired in their own problems. Secondly, it would tell people within the party that they're not acceptable. There are potential downsides as well, but it would be hard for them to make as much a mess of it as Labour has.
5) The moment that JRM is a leading member of the Conservative Party is the moment I start actively campaigning against them.
But as I said: it looks bad. Politics is as much about spin and image as it is about truth and reality, and Bannon has the image of being an influential and rather controversial right-winger - in the US, of all places.
What's more, he's a fading star. I don't quite understand what they think they're going to gain from talking to him, and there's much to lose. If anything Bannon gains more, by inflating his sense of self-importance.
It'll have damaged them more than anything they might have gained from it.the votersPutin using the American political system elected Trump.0 -
Thomas sets off at 15:29 BST. But I would tune in about 30mins earlier to watch what the previous three are doing in terms of times and strategy steady pace or slow then quick etc.Benpointer said:O/T I am not much of a cycling fan but fancy watching to see if Thomas can more or less nail the TDF this aft. Question for those who know, what time should I tune in? I understand Thomas goes last in the time trial as he's in the Yellow Jersey.
0 -
Why would moist small gamebirds be fun?Nigelb said:Dampish quail in Hungary. Should be fun.
0 -
5. Open it up, carefully lever out several segments to start taking it apart piece by piece, then reassemble each row.JosiasJessop said:
There are more than two ways to solve the Rubiks Cube including:Verulamius said:There were two main ways to solve the cube.
1. Buy a book and learn the instructions.
2. Work it out from first principles.
With Brexit the problem is that whilst a number of books have been written, none of them work in practice given the completing political and economic demands.
Also nobody can agree what the final stage of the cube actually looks like.
3, Cheat (as others have already said on this thread)
4. Pay someone else to do it.
These may, or may not, be applicable to Brexit.0 -
Had a very tasty quail dish in Lanzarote last week. It was moist, but that was the sauce.MarqueeMark said:
Why would moist small gamebirdds be fun?Nigelb said:Dampish quail in Hungary. Should be fun.
0 -
I’m guessing Spain doesn’t have the same demographic problem as Germany? So, why?felix said:
The migrant arrivals in Andalucia have rapidly become a big concern as the numbers are spiking after Sanchez effectively opened the doors with the boat from Italy. He's also offering free healthcare etc all of which may be terribly right on but it is sending entirely the wrong message to the traffikers.However, all will be well because no doubt France, Germany and the rest of the EU 27 will rapidly be offering to share the burden as they did with Ital...oh..wait a minute... Ahh..Spain is f*****.Acorn_Antiques said:
To the best of my knowledge, these types of incursions at Ceuta and Melilla have been going on for a very long time. Of more interest will be seeing what happens when no more takers can be found for all the charity water taxis that keep going to collect migrants from 200 yards off the coast of Libya.AndyJS said:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/26/hundreds-storm-border-fence-spanish-enclave-north-africa-ceuta-spain-migration
"Hundreds storm border fence into Spain's north Africa enclave of Ceuta
Incident follows warnings over country’s ability to cope with rising migration numbers"
If, or more likely when, we get to this point then is there any legal mechanism available to attempt to force the Maltese or the Italians to accept them - and would anyone dare to use it?0 -
Ha!MarqueeMark said:
Why would moist small gamebirds be fun?Nigelb said:Dampish quail in Hungary. Should be fun.
Damn you auto-correct; should be quali.
0 -
Most charities are now staffed by very Left-wing people. Obsessed with “diversity” and viewing whiteness as a problem. So it leads them to fund and support niche minority groups, no questions asked.Acorn_Antiques said:
Yes, all over the front page of the Times, saw that when I was out shopping this morning.Sean_F said:O/T, and I know it's a Daily Mail story (but also reported in the Times) but what's happened to the Joseph Rowntree Foundation?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6001241/Joseph-Rowntree-Charity-Trust-investigated-giving-money-Teach-na-Failte-INLA.html
This comes on top of grants of £300,000 to Islamist outfit Cage, and £275,000 to Just Yorkshire, an organisation that brands Sarah Champion a racist.
Support for the winning combination of Anti-Western Islamist radicalism and violent Irish Republicanism suggests that the people doling out all this cash might have Corbynite sympathies. Hopefully some enterprising hacks are doing some digging in this area as we type.
It’s even started to become a problem in the National Trust.0 -
Well, if they do keep on doing that then more fool them. France will raise its defences along the border and the Iberian peninsula will simply turn into an unwanted migrant dumping ground like the Italian peninsula has.felix said:
The migrant arrivals in Andalucia have rapidly become a big concern as the numbers are spiking after Sanchez effectively opened the doors with the boat from Italy. He's also offering free healthcare etc all of which may be terribly right on but it is sending entirely the wrong message to the traffikers.However, all will be well because no doubt France, Germany and the rest of the EU 27 will rapidly be offering to share the burden as they did with Ital...oh..wait a minute... Ahh..Spain is f*****.Acorn_Antiques said:
To the best of my knowledge, these types of incursions at Ceuta and Melilla have been going on for a very long time. Of more interest will be seeing what happens when no more takers can be found for all the charity water taxis that keep going to collect migrants from 200 yards off the coast of Libya.AndyJS said:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/26/hundreds-storm-border-fence-spanish-enclave-north-africa-ceuta-spain-migration
"Hundreds storm border fence into Spain's north Africa enclave of Ceuta
Incident follows warnings over country’s ability to cope with rising migration numbers"
If, or more likely when, we get to this point then is there any legal mechanism available to attempt to force the Maltese or the Italians to accept them - and would anyone dare to use it?
Well, until Corbyn gets in anyway. Then they'll probably just charter sealed trains to transport them all up to Calais for us to deal with.0 -
But you are ignoring that it is a team sport. Team SKY have the biggest budget, and assemble a team PURELY to win the GC. Others try for stage wins, green jerseys, KOM, long breaks to get their sponsors on TV etc, etc.Dura_Ace said:
"G"s record in grand tours:Benpointer said:
He's lost more than 120 secs to Dumoulin before in similar duration TTs, so not completely foregone conclusion.Dura_Ace said:
It's about a 30 minute TT so unless he crashes badly he will win the GC. It's basically already over.Benpointer said:O/T I am not much of a cycling fan but fancy watching to see if Thomas can more or less nail the TDF this aft. Question for those who know, what time should I tune in? I understand Thomas goes last in the time trial as he's in the Yellow Jersey.
The more interesting question is a how second rate classics rider turns into a Tour winner at age 32...
Regarding your 2nd point, maybe Sky just organise things better? Your implication, in the absence of evidence, that he must be cheating is a cheap shot but if he were, why aren't the others doing the same?
140
118
67
31
80
140
22
15
69
15
DNF
DNF
and now: 1st.
Organisation, that's definitely what's happening. Organisation.
Sky don't. Their entire focus is GC. They have no sprinters in the team. No one ever attacks. They focus on one thing only.
Therefore who should win? Well a Sky rider.
Froome is knackered from winning in Spain and Italy.
With that, Thomas was the obvious next candidate.
0 -
It's a lot poorer, has far greater unemployment and tons of unusable space. Migrants cost money and Spain has few jobs to offer them. So your guessing doesn't make a lot of sense.Mortimer said:
I’m guessing Spain doesn’t have the same demographic problem as Germany? So, why?felix said:
The migrant arrivals in Andalucia have rapidly become a big concern as the numbers are spiking after Sanchez effectively opened the doors with the boat from Italy. He's also offering free healthcare etc all of which may be terribly right on but it is sending entirely the wrong message to the traffikers.However, all will be well because no doubt France, Germany and the rest of the EU 27 will rapidly be offering to share the burden as they did with Ital...oh..wait a minute... Ahh..Spain is f*****.Acorn_Antiques said:
To the best of my knowledge, these types of incursions at Ceuta and Melilla have been going on for a very long time. Of more interest will be seeing what happens when no more takers can be found for all the charity water taxis that keep going to collect migrants from 200 yards off the coast of Libya.AndyJS said:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/26/hundreds-storm-border-fence-spanish-enclave-north-africa-ceuta-spain-migration
"Hundreds storm border fence into Spain's north Africa enclave of Ceuta
Incident follows warnings over country’s ability to cope with rising migration numbers"
If, or more likely when, we get to this point then is there any legal mechanism available to attempt to force the Maltese or the Italians to accept them - and would anyone dare to use it?0 -
The interest comes when the game is played multiple times. In this scenario tit for tat works best. Be nice until your partner defects then nasty until he turns nice. Then nice again etc . The UK defected so it can expect the EC to be nasty until UK starts being nice. This will infuriate hard brexiters who want total victory but has been shown to the best result for the long term even with short term pain.Andy_Cooke said:The posters citing the fact that No Deal is worse for both sides and thus there will be a deal may be right. I fear, though, they're overoptimistic.
On the famous Prisoner's Dilemma, both Prisoners "defecting" and dobbing each other in leads to a worse outcome than both co-operating. It is, however, very difficult to find a rational strategy that leads to both co-operating and both defecting is the most sensible thing to do for both of them.
[It's so well known that I'm probably being daft to explain it, but it goes like this: two suspects are picked up for a crime. Each are separately interviewed and told that there's some evidence, but not enough to charge them for the full crime. They'll both go down for one year.
If, however, the interviewee turns the other prisoner in, he'll get a plea bargain: he can go free while the other serves five years (and they can guarantee no blowback on the snitcher). They can simply put all responsibility on the other guy.
The catch is that if both dob each other in, both go down for the same crime anyway and both get three years.
While the case of both remaining silent gives the fewest years served and least impact overall on the pair of them, there is no option where remaining silent is better for an interviewee.
- Either the other guy has dobbed you in or not. If you turn him in, and he had snitched on you, you've mitigated a five year sentence on yourself down to three. So you really should turn him in if he's done that, right?
But if he hasn't dobbed you in and you turn him in, you go free rather than taking a one year sentence.]
The key issue is that No Deal is not the outcome of any deal or approval. It's what happens if there isn't one. If neither side can get any given deal through (and meeting all five of David's lines simultaneously), we stay in a No Deal state. It's where we are right now.
I hope they find an acceptable fudge to all parties. I'm not sure they will, and if they don't - if May can't get majority support for a given deal that the EU all support as well - we stay in No Deal as the days tick down.0 -
Manipulation through propaganda and misinformation. Certainly enough to make a difference in PA, MI and WI, all of which Trump won by tiny margins. I’m guessing you’re with Trump in his denial of Russian collusion against all the evidence?felix said:
Really - just how exactly were millions of Americans forced by Putin to vote for Trump. I wouldn't mind trying whatever it is you're smoking.not_on_fire said:
Fixed that for youfelix said:
I thoughtJonathan said:
He got Trump elected, is wealthy and connected and knows the inside workings of the White House. Whilst he isean he's not still dangerous and potentially useful to an aspiring right winger.JosiasJessop said:
Yes, it appears that way. I'd be massively surprised if Gove held any fascistic views.Sean_F said:
In Gove's case, it seems to amount to a couple of conversations about US politics.JosiasJessop said:
I'm not a Conservative, but:The_Apocalypse said:
Southam throughout this thread has also been comparing Labour’s antisemitism scandal with this, with few Conservatives responding to him on this matter, which I find a bit odd.rottenborough said:
1) This looks bad. What on Earth do Goe, Johnson, et al think they're going to gain from this?
2) To be fair, they're just talking. The anti-Semitism within Labour is now deep within its very soul.
4) If the Conservatives were sensible, they'd launch a carefully-constructed (but truthful) inquiry into both anti-Semitism and Islamophobia within the party. Firstly, it would staunch what might be a very lucrative attack line by Labour if Labour were't mired in their own problems. Secondly, it would tell people within the party that they're not acceptable. There are potential downsides as well, but it would be hard for them to make as much a mess of it as Labour has.
5) The moment that JRM is a leading member of the Conservative Party is the moment I start actively campaigning against them.
But as I said: it looks bad. Politics is as much about spin and image as it is about truth and reality, and Bannon has the image of being an influential and rather controversial right-winger - in the US, of all places.
What's more, he's a fading star. I don't quite understand what they think they're going to gain from talking to him, and there's much to lose. If anything Bannon gains more, by inflating his sense of self-importance.
It'll have damaged them more than anything they might have gained from it.the votersPutin using the American political system elected Trump.0 -
Or Spain does an Italy and elects a government which will change the policy. What exact benefit is there to Spain of tens of thousands of young men with no apparent skills or qualifications in a country with 40 per cent youth unemployment?Acorn_Antiques said:
Well, if they do keep on doing that then more fool them. France will raise its defences along the border and the Iberian peninsula will simply turn into an unwanted migrant dumping ground like the Italian peninsula has.felix said:
The migrant arrivals in Andalucia have rapidly become a big concern as the numbers are spiking after Sanchez effectively opened the doors with the boat from Italy. He's also offering free healthcare etc all of which may be terribly right on but it is sending entirely the wrong message to the traffikers.However, all will be well because no doubt France, Germany and the rest of the EU 27 will rapidly be offering to share the burden as they did with Ital...oh..wait a minute... Ahh..Spain is f*****.Acorn_Antiques said:
To the best of my knowledge, these types of incursions at Ceuta and Melilla have been going on for a very long time. Of more interest will be seeing what happens when no more takers can be found for all the charity water taxis that keep going to collect migrants from 200 yards off the coast of Libya.AndyJS said:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/26/hundreds-storm-border-fence-spanish-enclave-north-africa-ceuta-spain-migration
"Hundreds storm border fence into Spain's north Africa enclave of Ceuta
Incident follows warnings over country’s ability to cope with rising migration numbers"
If, or more likely when, we get to this point then is there any legal mechanism available to attempt to force the Maltese or the Italians to accept them - and would anyone dare to use it?
Well, until Corbyn gets in anyway. Then they'll probably just charter sealed trains to transport them all up to Calais for us to deal with.0 -
In 2003 the UK agreed to have no restriction to FoM from the EU, that was being nice.hamiltonace said:
The interest comes when the game is played multiple times. In this scenario tit for tat works best. Be nice until your partner defects then nasty until he turns nice. Then nice again etc . The UK defected so it can expect the EC to be nasty until UK starts being nice. This will infuriate hard brexiters who want total victory but has been shown to the best result for the long term even with short term pain.Andy_Cooke said:
On the famous Prisoner's Dilemma, both Prisoners "defecting" and dobbing each other in leads to a worse outcome than both co-operating. It is, however, very difficult to find a rational strategy that leads to both co-operating and both defecting is the most sensible thing to do for both of them.
[It's so well known that I'm probably being daft to explain it, but it goes like this: two suspects are picked up for a crime. Each are separately interviewed and told that there's some evidence, but not enough to charge them for the full crime. They'll both go down for one year.
If, however, the interviewee turns the other prisoner in, he'll get a plea bargain: he can go free while the other serves five years (and they can guarantee no blowback on the snitcher). They can simply put all responsibility on the other guy.
The catch is that if both dob each other in, both go down for the same crime anyway and both get three years.
While the case of both remaining silent gives the fewest years served and least impact overall on the pair of them, there is no option where remaining silent is better for an interviewee.
- Either the other guy has dobbed you in or not. If you turn him in, and he had snitched on you, you've mitigated a five year sentence on yourself down to three. So you really should turn him in if he's done that, right?
But if he hasn't dobbed you in and you turn him in, you go free rather than taking a one year sentence.]
The key issue is that No Deal is not the outcome of any deal or approval. It's what happens if there isn't one. If neither side can get any given deal through (and meeting all five of David's lines simultaneously), we stay in a No Deal state. It's where we are right now.
I hope they find an acceptable fudge to all parties. I'm not sure they will, and if they don't - if May can't get majority support for a given deal that the EU all support as well - we stay in No Deal as the days tick down.
In 2006 the EU demanded that the UK increase its financial contribution, that was being nasty.
Perhaps you could say when the EU started to be nice to the UK ?
By your theory the UK should continue to be nasty to the EU until the EU starts to be nice.0 -
It was self-interest. The Blair government wanted immigration and wanted to build long-term alliances to against the Franco-German axis and saw an opportunity to kill two birds with one stone.another_richard said:In 2003 the UK agreed to have no restriction to FoM from the EU, that was being nice.
0 -
More fundamentally, the UK needed immigration, and still does. Or, alternatively, *needs* a smaller economy to balance with the workforce, which I guess is where Brexit comes in.williamglenn said:
It was self-interest. The Blair government wanted immigration and wanted to build long-term alliances to against the Franco-German axis and saw an opportunity to kill two birds with one stone.another_richard said:In 2003 the UK agreed to have no restriction to FoM from the EU, that was being nice.
0 -
Afternoon all
The new opposition PP leader in Spain seems a young man of extreme right-wing views and may well be the next Spanish Prime Minister unless he is too strong for even Citizens.
The "problems" aren't going to go away. Even if Spain, France, Italy, Malta and Greece all elect virulently anti-migrant Governments, the flow of humanity from sub-Saharan Africa isn't going to stop.
Resolving the chaos of Libya might be a good step as it is the core of much of the migration.
Anecdotally, I am seeing more sub-Saharan Africans coming into East Ham - more shops are offering services for Nigerians, Ghanaians and Kenyans so there's a clear flow of people from these areas into the UK.0 -
Well, perhaps the new Spanish Government is nostalgic for the days when Eta used to go around indiscriminately slaughtering people with firearms and explosives, and it's decided that importing thousands of potential recruits for IS is the most efficient way to bring them back? I don't know.brendan16 said:
Or Spain does an Italy and elects a government which will change the policy. What exact benefit is there to Spain of tens of thousands of young men with no apparent skills or qualifications in a country with 40 per cent youth unemployment?Acorn_Antiques said:
Well, if they do keep on doing that then more fool them. France will raise its defences along the border and the Iberian peninsula will simply turn into an unwanted migrant dumping ground like the Italian peninsula has.felix said:
The migrant arrivals in Andalucia have rapidly become a big concern as the numbers are spiking after Sanchez effectively opened the doors with the boat from Italy. He's also offering free healthcare etc all of which may be terribly right on but it is sending entirely the wrong message to the traffikers.However, all will be well because no doubt France, Germany and the rest of the EU 27 will rapidly be offering to share the burden as they did with Ital...oh..wait a minute... Ahh..Spain is f*****.Acorn_Antiques said:
To the best of my knowledge, these types of incursions at Ceuta and Melilla have been going on for a very long time. Of more interest will be seeing what happens when no more takers can be found for all the charity water taxis that keep going to collect migrants from 200 yards off the coast of Libya.AndyJS said:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/26/hundreds-storm-border-fence-spanish-enclave-north-africa-ceuta-spain-migration
"Hundreds storm border fence into Spain's north Africa enclave of Ceuta
Incident follows warnings over country’s ability to cope with rising migration numbers"
If, or more likely when, we get to this point then is there any legal mechanism available to attempt to force the Maltese or the Italians to accept them - and would anyone dare to use it?
Well, until Corbyn gets in anyway. Then they'll probably just charter sealed trains to transport them all up to Calais for us to deal with.
The Spanish Government might eventually see sense, or be replaced by one that does, *BUT* most of the pushback against migrant flows in Europe has come from the populist Right - in countries such as Poland and Hungary (ethno-nationalist and/or bloody terrified of Western-style multiculturalism) or Italy (mad as Hell and not going to take this anymore.) Spain doesn't have a populist Right. So, we shall see.0 -
A close ally of Jeremy Corbyn has accused a Jewish ex-minister of using the murders of her family members in the Holocaust as a "weapon" with which to attack the Labour leader.
David Rosenberg, an author who has previously described allegations of anti-Semitism in Labour as a "largely engineered furore", claimed that Dame Margaret Hodge had "cynically drawn on her family’s direct experience of the Holocaust to bolster her special right to pronounce on the subject".
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/28/corbyn-ally-accuses-margaret-hodge-using-holocaust-weapon-attack/
No problems with anti-Semitism in the Labour party, they did an inquiry and everything.0 -
That 'alliance' all demanded that the UK give them more money a couple of years later.williamglenn said:
It was self-interest. The Blair government wanted immigration and wanted to build long-term alliances to against the Franco-German axis and saw an opportunity to kill two birds with one stone.another_richard said:In 2003 the UK agreed to have no restriction to FoM from the EU, that was being nice.
Another masterstroke from out 'expert' diplomats.0 -
Interesting article about Blackburn:
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2018/07/town-stopped-working0 -
Paid for by the taxes of the people we took from them. Those diplomats are cannier than you think.another_richard said:
That 'alliance' all demanded that the UK give them more money a couple of years later.williamglenn said:
It was self-interest. The Blair government wanted immigration and wanted to build long-term alliances to against the Franco-German axis and saw an opportunity to kill two birds with one stone.another_richard said:In 2003 the UK agreed to have no restriction to FoM from the EU, that was being nice.
Another masterstroke from out 'expert' diplomats.
0 -
For M Dancer, provisional pole for Raikkonen0
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New wets for Mercedes might just spoil the party, though ?0
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I doubt the average Eastern European immigrant pays enough taxes to fund the benefits and public services they consume in this country.williamglenn said:
Paid for by the taxes of the people we took from them. Those diplomats are cannier than you think.another_richard said:
That 'alliance' all demanded that the UK give them more money a couple of years later.williamglenn said:
It was self-interest. The Blair government wanted immigration and wanted to build long-term alliances to against the Franco-German axis and saw an opportunity to kill two birds with one stone.another_richard said:In 2003 the UK agreed to have no restriction to FoM from the EU, that was being nice.
Another masterstroke from out 'expert' diplomats.
Certainly the public finances have not generally improved since 2003.0 -
The core of the irregular migrant flow consists of economic migrants, not refugees. Their motive is financial improvement, and the reason that more are coming is because they are, on average, getting gradually better off, not because they're getting even poorer. That's how come more and more people can afford to hand over wadges of cash for people traffickers to spend on nice things such as fast cars, loose women, and equipping battalions of Islamist murderers with Kalashnikovs and mortars.stodge said:Afternoon all
The new opposition PP leader in Spain seems a young man of extreme right-wing views and may well be the next Spanish Prime Minister unless he is too strong for even Citizens.
The "problems" aren't going to go away. Even if Spain, France, Italy, Malta and Greece all elect virulently anti-migrant Governments, the flow of humanity from sub-Saharan Africa isn't going to stop.
Resolving the chaos of Libya might be a good step as it is the core of much of the migration.
Anecdotally, I am seeing more sub-Saharan Africans coming into East Ham - more shops are offering services for Nigerians, Ghanaians and Kenyans so there's a clear flow of people from these areas into the UK.
The correct response is, therefore, to improve European border defence until it's so difficult to get in that it becomes more trouble than it's worth to do so. At that juncture, people will stop coming, because they'll stand a better chance of making money at home than they will spending it to try to get to somewhere like Germany. If the migrant flows cease then all of the deaths along the migration routes stop and the people traffickers are deprived of their livelihood.
This approach makes common sense. Part of the reason why we are seeing the rejection of the old political parties in countries like Italy is that they were too stubborn or too stupid to attempt it, so voters were obliged to turn elsewhere out of desperation.0 -
When it rains, Hamilton wins...
(which is a slight shame as I had a couple of quid on Bottas at 23/1 a couple of days back, fortunately hedged at 10.)0 -
That was down to Gordon Brown.another_richard said:
I doubt the average Eastern European immigrant pays enough taxes to fund the benefits and public services they consume in this country.williamglenn said:
Paid for by the taxes of the people we took from them. Those diplomats are cannier than you think.another_richard said:
That 'alliance' all demanded that the UK give them more money a couple of years later.williamglenn said:
It was self-interest. The Blair government wanted immigration and wanted to build long-term alliances to against the Franco-German axis and saw an opportunity to kill two birds with one stone.another_richard said:In 2003 the UK agreed to have no restriction to FoM from the EU, that was being nice.
Another masterstroke from out 'expert' diplomats.
Certainly the public finances have not generally improved since 2003.
If we'd had Ken Clarke in charge from 1997-2010 and we'd been fiscally responsible while joining the Euro, the EU would have been powered by an Anglo-German engine by now.0 -
That was an awesome qualifying session. Nothing better than a bit of rain to spice things up.0
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African hair and beauty shops are increasingly common throughout the country.stodge said:Afternoon all
The new opposition PP leader in Spain seems a young man of extreme right-wing views and may well be the next Spanish Prime Minister unless he is too strong for even Citizens.
The "problems" aren't going to go away. Even if Spain, France, Italy, Malta and Greece all elect virulently anti-migrant Governments, the flow of humanity from sub-Saharan Africa isn't going to stop.
Resolving the chaos of Libya might be a good step as it is the core of much of the migration.
Anecdotally, I am seeing more sub-Saharan Africans coming into East Ham - more shops are offering services for Nigerians, Ghanaians and Kenyans so there's a clear flow of people from these areas into the UK.
The population growth in much of sub-Saharan Africa is astonishing and I fear can't continue without disaster at some point.0 -
Interesting read, thank youAndyJS said:Interesting article about Blackburn:
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2018/07/town-stopped-working0 -
Not if your name's Vettel ...Sandpit said:That was an awesome qualifying session. Nothing better than a bit of rain to spice things up.
0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
Mr. B, I'd planned to set up a hedge on Raikkonen for pole but there wasn't a market up (on LadEx).
And so the Year of Woe continues.
More seriously, a very entertaining qualifying session. Hamilton was something like 8 or 9 for the win pre-qualifying (4.33 pre-practice). Imagine he'll be 2.5 or so now.0 -
PP is unlikely to be in government in Spain for a long time now. Maduro himself may not be around for too long. He is embroiled in a scandal about how he got his masters degree. It does not seem to have involved him doing any work.stodge said:Afternoon all
The new opposition PP leader in Spain seems a young man of extreme right-wing views and may well be the next Spanish Prime Minister unless he is too strong for even Citizens.
The "problems" aren't going to go away. Even if Spain, France, Italy, Malta and Greece all elect virulently anti-migrant Governments, the flow of humanity from sub-Saharan Africa isn't going to stop.
Resolving the chaos of Libya might be a good step as it is the core of much of the migration.
Anecdotally, I am seeing more sub-Saharan Africans coming into East Ham - more shops are offering services for Nigerians, Ghanaians and Kenyans so there's a clear flow of people from these areas into the UK.
0 -
We learned in 1992 how damaging joining the Euro would be.williamglenn said:
That was down to Gordon Brown.another_richard said:
I doubt the average Eastern European immigrant pays enough taxes to fund the benefits and public services they consume in this country.williamglenn said:
Paid for by the taxes of the people we took from them. Those diplomats are cannier than you think.another_richard said:
That 'alliance' all demanded that the UK give them more money a couple of years later.williamglenn said:
It was self-interest. The Blair government wanted immigration and wanted to build long-term alliances to against the Franco-German axis and saw an opportunity to kill two birds with one stone.another_richard said:In 2003 the UK agreed to have no restriction to FoM from the EU, that was being nice.
Another masterstroke from out 'expert' diplomats.
Certainly the public finances have not generally improved since 2003.
If we'd had Ken Clarke in charge from 1997-2010 and we'd been fiscally responsible while joining the Euro, the EU would have been powered by an Anglo-German engine by now.
The EU has always been an alliance of France and Germany.
I don't criticize France and Germany for that as they have gained from it.
But the idea that France was going to want an ally against Germany or that Germany was going to want an ally against France has been a fantasy of the British Foreign Office.0 -
Spain and Portugal both have very clear memories of what living under populist right wing governments was like. It’s no coincidence neither country has such mainstream parties now.Acorn_Antiques said:
Well, perhaps the new Spanish Government is nostalgic for the days when Eta used to go around indiscriminately slaughtering people with firearms and explosives, and it's decided that importing thousands of potential recruits for IS is the most efficient way to bring them back? I don't know.brendan16 said:
Or Spain does an Italy and elects a government which will change the policy. What exact benefit is there to Spain of tens of thousands of young men with no apparent skills or qualifications in a country with 40 per cent youth unemployment?Acorn_Antiques said:
Well, if they do keep on doing that then more fool them. France will raise its defences along the border and the Iberian peninsula will simply turn into an unwanted migrant dumping ground like the Italian peninsula has.felix said:
The migrant arrivalsGermany and the rest of the EU 27 will rapidly be offering to share the burden as they did with Ital...oh..wait a minute... Ahh..Spain is f*****.Acorn_Antiques said:
To the best of my knowledge, these types of incursions at Ceuta and Melilla have been going on for a very long time. Of more interest will be seeing what happens when no more takers can be found for all the charity water taxis that keep going to collect migrants from 200 yards off the coast of Libya.AndyJS said:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/26/hundreds-storm-border-fence-spanish-enclave-north-africa-ceuta-spain-migration
"Hundreds storm border fence into Spain's north Africa enclave of Ceuta
Incident follows warnings over country’s ability to cope with rising migration numbers"
If, or more likely when, we get to this point then is there any legal mechanism available to attempt to force the Maltese or the Italians to accept them - and would anyone dare to use it?
Well, until Corbyn gets in anyway. Then they'll probably just charter sealed trains to transport them all up to Calais for us to deal with.
The Spanish Government might eventually see sense, or be replaced by one that does, *BUT* most of the pushback against migrant flows in Europe has come from the populist Right - in countries such as Poland and Hungary (ethno-nationalist and/or bloody terrified of Western-style multiculturalism) or Italy (mad as Hell and not going to take this anymore.) Spain doesn't have a populist Right. So, we shall see.
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Casado!!SouthamObserver said:
PP is unlikely to be in government in Spain for a long time now. Maduro himself may not be around for too long. He is embroiled in a scandal about how he got his masters degree. It does not seem to have involved him doing any work.stodge said:Afternoon all
The new opposition PP leader in Spain seems a young man of extreme right-wing views and may well be the next Spanish Prime Minister unless he is too strong for even Citizens.
The "problems" aren't going to go away. Even if Spain, France, Italy, Malta and Greece all elect virulently anti-migrant Governments, the flow of humanity from sub-Saharan Africa isn't going to stop.
Resolving the chaos of Libya might be a good step as it is the core of much of the migration.
Anecdotally, I am seeing more sub-Saharan Africans coming into East Ham - more shops are offering services for Nigerians, Ghanaians and Kenyans so there's a clear flow of people from these areas into the UK.
0 -
Notice that @Dura_Ace labelled Thomas a second rate classics rider... choosing for some reason to ignore his Olympic and World Championship golds... living with such corrosive cynicism must be tough...dixiedean said:
But you are ignoring that it is a team sport. Team SKY have the biggest budget, and assemble a team PURELY to win the GC. Others try for stage wins, green jerseys, KOM, long breaks to get their sponsors on TV etc, etc.Dura_Ace said:
"G"s record in grand tours:Benpointer said:
He's lost more than 120 secs to Dumoulin before in similar duration TTs, so not completely foregone conclusion.Dura_Ace said:
It's about a 30 minute TT so unless he crashes badly he will win the GC. It's basically already over.Benpointer said:O/T I am not much of a cycling fan but fancy watching to see if Thomas can more or less nail the TDF this aft. Question for those who know, what time should I tune in? I understand Thomas goes last in the time trial as he's in the Yellow Jersey.
The more interesting question is a how second rate classics rider turns into a Tour winner at age 32...
Regarding your 2nd point, maybe Sky just organise things better? Your implication, in the absence of evidence, that he must be cheating is a cheap shot but if he were, why aren't the others doing the same?
140
118
67
31
80
140
22
15
69
15
DNF
DNF
and now: 1st.
Organisation, that's definitely what's happening. Organisation.
Sky don't. Their entire focus is GC. They have no sprinters in the team. No one ever attacks. They focus on one thing only.
Therefore who should win? Well a Sky rider.
Froome is knackered from winning in Spain and Italy.
With that, Thomas was the obvious next candidate.0 -
I think three things were going on. Firstly it was a lack of foresight: if he'd foreseen the scale of net migration and what it would end up doing to British politics then Blair would've acted differently. Secondly it was political self-interest - i.e. to add to the electorate millions of extra voters who would, presumably, be relied on to lean disproportionately to Labour in gratitude. Thirdly, it was his interpretation of the national self-interest, i.e. to stuff the UK with so many people that it would eventually displace a shrinking Germany as the main European power, by virtue of being more populous.williamglenn said:
It was self-interest. The Blair government wanted immigration and wanted to build long-term alliances to against the Franco-German axis and saw an opportunity to kill two birds with one stone.another_richard said:In 2003 the UK agreed to have no restriction to FoM from the EU, that was being nice.
Clearly things haven't turned out as he would've hoped.0 -
The birth rate in Spain is very low and a lot of young people leave. A lot of Spanish agriculture these days is heavily dependent on immigrant labour. Spain has absorbed huge numbers of immigrants of all kinds over the last 30 years - from Northern Europeans on the costas to North Africans and sub-Saharan Africans in the big cities. There are also a lot of Romanians. That it has all happened with relatively little rancour is remarkable. Again, something similar has happened in Portugal.Mortimer said:
I’m guessing Spain doesn’t have the same demographic problem as Germany? So, why?felix said:
The migrant arrivals in Andalucia have rapidly become a big concern as the numbers are spiking after Sanchez effectively opened the doors with the boat from Italy. He's also offering free healthcare etc all of which may be terribly right on but it is sending entirely the wrong message to the traffikers.However, all will be well because no doubt France, Germany and the rest of the EU 27 will rapidly be offering to share the burden as they did with Ital...oh..wait a minute... Ahh..Spain is f*****.Acorn_Antiques said:
To the best of my knowledge, these types of incursions at Ceuta and Melilla have been going on for a very long time. Of more interest will be seeing what happens when no more takers can be found for all the charity water taxis that keep going to collect migrants from 200 yards off the coast of Libya.AndyJS said:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/26/hundreds-storm-border-fence-spanish-enclave-north-africa-ceuta-spain-migration
"Hundreds storm border fence into Spain's north Africa enclave of Ceuta
Incident follows warnings over country’s ability to cope with rising migration numbers"
If, or more likely when, we get to this point then is there any legal mechanism available to attempt to force the Maltese or the Italians to accept them - and would anyone dare to use it?
0 -
Has also won Paris-Nice and Criterium Dauphine, which aren't to be sniffed at.Rexel56 said:
Notice that @Dura_Ace labelled Thomas a second rate classics rider... choosing for some reason to ignore his Olympic and World Championship golds... living with such corrosive cynicism must be tough...dixiedean said:
But you are ignoring that it is a team sport. Team SKY have the biggest budget, and assemble a team PURELY to win the GC. Others try for stage wins, green jerseys, KOM, long breaks to get their sponsors on TV etc, etc.Dura_Ace said:
"G"s record in grand tours:Benpointer said:
He's lost more than 120 secs to Dumoulin before in similar duration TTs, so not completely foregone conclusion.Dura_Ace said:
It's about a 30 minute TT so unless he crashes badly he will win the GC. It's basically already over.Benpointer said:O/T I am not much of a cycling fan but fancy watching to see if Thomas can more or less nail the TDF this aft. Question for those who know, what time should I tune in? I understand Thomas goes last in the time trial as he's in the Yellow Jersey.
The more interesting question is a how second rate classics rider turns into a Tour winner at age 32...
Regarding your 2nd point, maybe Sky just organise things better? Your implication, in the absence of evidence, that he must be cheating is a cheap shot but if he were, why aren't the others doing the same?
140
118
67
31
80
140
22
15
69
15
DNF
DNF
and now: 1st.
Organisation, that's definitely what's happening. Organisation.
Sky don't. Their entire focus is GC. They have no sprinters in the team. No one ever attacks. They focus on one thing only.
Therefore who should win? Well a Sky rider.
Froome is knackered from winning in Spain and Italy.
With that, Thomas was the obvious next candidate.
For the record I don't believe any team is more innocent or guilty. Some are better at it. And some focus on other acheivements.0 -
They didn't have populist-Right Governments, they had fascist-militarist dictatorships. But yes, that is the fundamental explanation for the fact that Left-populism predominates in Spain and Portugal (and Greece) instead.SouthamObserver said:Spain and Portugal both have very clear memories of what living under populist right wing governments was like. It’s no coincidence neither country has such mainstream parties now.
0 -
Or Ricciardo, who chose to start from the back last time out in an attempt to challenge for the podium this weekend.JosiasJessop said:
Not if your name's Vettel ...Sandpit said:That was an awesome qualifying session. Nothing better than a bit of rain to spice things up.
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Mr. Sandpit, still possible, maybe. I think Ricciardo's got a weaker power unit than Verstappen though.0
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That only works as a conspiracy theory if you’re talking about non-EU migrants from the Commonwealth. EU citizens had virtually no incentive to become British citizens and become eligible to vote in general election.Acorn_Antiques said:Secondly it was political self-interest - i.e. to add to the electorate millions of extra voters who would, presumably, be relied on to lean disproportionately to Labour in gratitude.
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The ability to vote is an incentive to become a citizen.williamglenn said:
That only works as a conspiracy theory if you’re talking about non-EU migrants from the Commonwealth. EU citizens had virtually no incentive to become British citizens and become eligible to vote in general election.Acorn_Antiques said:Secondly it was political self-interest - i.e. to add to the electorate millions of extra voters who would, presumably, be relied on to lean disproportionately to Labour in gratitude.
0 -
This is the article I have been looking for where the EU would carry out any mitigation unilaterally and on a temporary basis. Mitigation for us requires us to negotiate. A deal, in other words.
https://twitter.com/financialtimes/status/1012189435906215936
Dubbed “the parachute” by some officials in Brussels, the provisions would in effect stagger the most severe effects of Britain’s March 2019 departure by using special arrangements for transport, financial services and customs.
....
Any unilateral EU provisions would be tailored to the bloc’s interests and would remain in force only until the EU develops the infrastructure to enforce rules for a no-deal Brexit that could last for years.
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I think this has gone on long enough. We need to cancel Brexit until there's actually a plan for implementing it.FF43 said:This is the article I have been looking for where the EU would carry out any mitigation unilaterally and on a temporary basis. Mitigation for us requires us to negotiate. A deal, in other words.
https://twitter.com/financialtimes/status/1012189435906215936
Dubbed “the parachute” by some officials in Brussels, the provisions would in effect stagger the most severe effects of Britain’s March 2019 departure by using special arrangements for transport, financial services and customs.
....
Any unilateral EU provisions would be tailored to the bloc’s interests and would remain in force only until the EU develops the infrastructure to enforce rules for a no-deal Brexit that could last for years.0
