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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Sutton Coldfield by-election could now be nailed on
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Sutton Coldfield by-election could now be nailed on
The guilty plea in the trial of the PC who falsely made up evidence about the Plebgate affair has been used by Andrew Mitchell’s friends as vindication of his position. It’s not quite that – if he wasn’t there then the substance of what was said remains disputed – but it hasn’t done anything for the police case.
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On the internal party politics David Herdson makes a good case, but I'm not sure it would be worth risking a by-election for. Is there really nobody in Britain who:
1) Tories like
2) Isn't a sitting MP
3) Wouldn't be utterly shit at the job?
6% from UKIP/BNP
8% from LibDem
6% from Lab
= 20%
Then they only need 17% + 1 out of the current 54% to switch from Con to take the seat. That's less than a third of the Tory vote. In a by-election they could easily get half.
Galloway was about the only one in the past 100 years.
Do UKIP have a Galloway, by any chance?
[1] Based on the prosecution decisions, it is clear that the Crown have insufficient evidence to prove that Rowland's account was false. It is unlikely therefore that they will ask the court to order a Newton hearing, if Wallis states that he falsely claimed to have witnessed a true incident.
[2] Thus far, Rowland has only issued a letter before claim.
And UKIP's base is higher in Sutton Coldfield, because it has a BNP vote that UKIP will be able to snaffle now that the BNP has fallen over.
As has been said earlier, if he doesn't HAVE to do it this year (2014), a by-election can be avoided.
All this is going on against the background of a potential game of chicken between the Parliament and the member states, where it's possible the member states will refuse to nominate the person the Parliament thinks just won the election, which could drag the process out for ages.
PS I keep banging on about the Ashton thing but are we sure there's a vacancy to be filled here? If the other member states say, "Everyone thinks the British High Representative is doing an excellent job, she's in the middle of negotiations with Iran and we'd like her to serve another term", is Cameron really going to say, "No, I insist that we sack her so that we can use the British slot to give some non-job to a loyal party hack I owe a favour to"?
There's nothing like that with Ashton. There's no particular aspect to the EU's foreign policy that the Tories have been running against, and if they'd had a Tory in the same job, there's nothing they'd obviously be doing differently.
Rationally, Ashton stays. What will happen, who knows? I see David Herdson's OP point but am not sure Mitchell is currently in Cameron or Osborne's inner circle, and if they need to buy him off to make plebgate go away, is that not what peerages are for?
Mr. Man, welcome to pb.com.
Mr. L, that just a reminder of the partisan, short-term poisonous atmosphere that McBride and his fellows created. So what if Brown completely screws up the IMF, so long as it neutralises a potential attack line at a single General Election for the Conservatives?
On Ashton: is there not the significant chance that she's seen as having gone native? One can hardly imagine the EU chose someone who might prefer Britain's interest to that of the EU for their first (effectively) foreign minister.
Edited extra bit: FPT: Mr. Smithson, that's an interesting comparison. Not sure which I'd prefer to watch. The Bridge is much harder to predict, I think, and I do like Saga and Martin's interesting interactions.
There was no ‘consensus’ - having left the UK economy in tatters, how could the Government then realistically support Brown’s appointment to the IMF without looking ridiculous.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-25699409
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-25701470
The EU is not the same as the UN, or the IMF. Neither of the latter organisations are attempting to force us to give prisoners the vote*, for example, or taking billions of pounds from us every year. There's also no appetite to leave the UN or IMF. There has been no promised and then reneged upon referendum about the UN or IMF, there is no UN or IMF single currency, there is no proposal to make the UN or IMF a single nation state, neither the UN nor IMF have gone well over a decade (I believe) without having their accounts signed off.
*The European courts are not the same as the EU but are inextricably linked to them. They're overmighty, unaccountable and despicable (another three similarities).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/10566046/3000-soldiers-will-lose-jobs-as-Army-launches-recruitment-campaign.html
A sorry tale of underfunding and mismangement.
Will TSE announce that his red line on supporting military personnel has been crossed ?
I don't think so either.
On the topic of false memory - where has this meme that Ashton is fantastic suddenly come from? It only seems to have appeared in the last 6 months - but all she has done is nodded through a terrible deal that Obama wanted for legacy reasons, but only the French had the balls to criticise
-------
* Marble Arch for those who didn't know. But I expect you all did.
Mr. Abroad, you're incorrect. When Jack Straw was Home Secretary the last death penalty crimes were changed, so we no longer have the death penalty for any crime committed (including treason or setting fire to shipyards).
Unlike much of the political class I'm rather in favour of freedom of speech. Those who wanted (and still want) to join the euro, or in your scenario, to rejoin the EU should be subject to argument and (in the former case) ridicule, not criminal proceedings.
Incompetent comedy fop.
" Maybe the way to understand British politics is like this:
- Only 30% of voters like Tebbit-style Conservatism.
- The Tories were on 30% for a decade.
- Under Cameron they did windmills and huskies and things and got another 5%.
- Then they reverted to Tebbit, so they went back to 30%. "
Well it may be an 'internationalist leftist' * thesis of events but it disintegrates on these details:
1) An examination of the 'another 5%' ** shows that they weren't voters attracted by 'windmills and huskies' but those angered by Labour's record on immigration and deindustrialisation. Most of these voters are now probably supporting UKIP.
2) The Conservatives actually did remarkably poorly in the areas where 'windmills and huskies' were said to be big issues.
3) The Conservatives haven't 'reverted to Tebbit' unless that is you think increasing overseas aid, gay marriage, continuing immigration and closing power stations are 'reverting to Tebbit'.
4) The one occasion where the Conservatives did get a boost was in the 'flounce bounce', ie when they did 'revert to Tebbit'.
* 'internationalist leftist' is my new description for the likes of yourself and Nick Palmer, it is not meant in any derogatory sense and I think you might quite like it.
** actually a 3% increase, in the circumstances of 2010 - Brown, the economy, time for a change etc - a very feeble increase.
Has Sutton Coalfield retained it's coal mine? If not, surely it should be renamed, Sutton Field or if fracking is allowed: Sutton Frackerstown.
Ashton-mania sweeps The Telegraph (Peter Oborne): Ashton-mania sweeps der Spiegel:
*chortle*
Plus rising prices and tax increases on the working poor.
The 'cost of living crisis' which Labour inflicted on the low paid in 2008 being far more severe than the one they've got excited about now.
"Brown has backers - but they can't beat a Tory grudge
By ALEX BRUMMER
UPDATED: 10:53, 21 May 2011
"Brown was at the heart of the effort for debt forgiveness in Africa and pivotal in securing new funds for the IMF in the aftermath of the 2007-08 credit crunch
"As chairman of the International Monetary Fund’s main policy-making panel for almost a decade, Gordon Brown demonstrated a remarkable knack for global financial statesmanship.
He was at the heart of the effort for debt forgiveness in Africa and pivotal in securing new funds for the IMF in the aftermath of the 2007-08 credit crunch.
"So it is somewhat surprising that despite his track record in Washington, the current British government has chosen to kibosh his chances of winning the now vacant job of managing director."
...
"At this year’s spring meeting in Washington, where the main talking point was who would replace Strauss-Kahn (in the days when it was anticipated he would leave to join the French presidential race), I was told by a senior official that Brown was the favoured candidate."
"There is no doubt that Brown, despite his ruined reputation at home, retains support among America’s Democratic elite. In his circle are some of America’s top economists, including Nobel Prize winners Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Krugman as well as President Obama’s former top White House adviser Lawrence Summers.
"Brown can also count on the support of the African bloc, which has clout but little voting power. He was among the architects for debt forgiveness in Africa and the Millennium Development Goals aimed at improving education and ending poverty across that continent."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1389330/Gordon-Brown-backers--beat-Tory-grudge.html
Although I do think there's a genuine section of opinion that bought the overall one-nation-ish Cameron branding that huskies and windmills were part of, which the government has now largely dropped from their messaging, because when they do try to it, as with gay marriage, they can't take their party with them and it ends up back-firing.
PS. Like you say I don't mind "international leftist" particularly although I'd be more like "international left-libertarian".
1. You think they'd be very good at it
2. You want to get rid of an awkward rival
3. You want to reward a faithful friend.
Mitchell doesn't seem quite to fit any of these and I can't see Cameron risking a by-election in an election year to make it happen. Letting Ashton carry on if she's willing seems to be the low-key option that doesn't create any problems.
These posts should not be sinecures for inconvenient unwanted Westminster politicians.
Whatever Ashtons merits, this is an opportunity to put a Conservative voice into the commission, and not one that will be missed. It needs to be someone with a reforming agenda similar to Camerons own position. It is a position that matches a meme across europe. William Hague would be good considering his FCO experience, and would create room for a reshuffle to bring back Mitchell.
Did I miss out on a Diplomacy game, I vaguely remember seeing some thing on a thread earlier in the week?
Now it may be argued that Cameron helped reduce anti-Conservative tactical voting among middle class leftists. Though I suspect any Lab-Lib shift had more to do with the respective views on Brown and Clegg in 2010.
I do think though that Cameron's 'huskies and windmills' persona is viewed as genuine by many 'disgruntled rightists'. The problem for the Conservatives is that they despise Cameron because of it. The two Seans are good examples here I would say.
There was nothing fundamentally wrong with the 'detox' strategy that Cameron and Osborne evolved in 2005-2006. The error was it was aimed at the wrong target - it was provincial wwc voters who were Labour's weak link not middle class leftists. Why Cameron and Osborne made this error - the viewpoint of 2005's metropolitan affluence being too rarified combined with general ignorance and/or prejudice about areas outside their comfort zone is my guess - is another issue. I think the left-libertarian would apply to you but not to Nick Palmer. He's always struck me as having a strong authoritarian streak but then he is an active politician.
Ok, so she's personally responsible for a deal so crap that even John Kerry wanted to throw up and had to be ordered to toe the line.
There may be a theoretical basis for that but on a practical level the kipper has it right as the number 10 spokesman was forced to point out himself. Doesn't sound to me like Cameron is prepared to make it a 'red line' for renegotiations.
Far from it.
I also somehow doubt that's going to satisfy Cammie's eternally disgruntled eurosceptics but then again even I didn't expect them to start running about like headless chickens over the EU quite this early. The EU election campaign hasn't even really started yet after all. I can only presume they are feeling less than happy after it looks like they've been sold yet another pup by the Cameroons. Namely the EU referendum Bill which is now looking less than certain to say the least.
You did indeed miss out on the new Diplomacy game, Doc. Not surprising though from the time Mr Fletcher announced the game to the time it was full was about 30 minutes, which must be some sort of record.
He has offered to set up another game is there is demand, which there might well be. Lucian Fletcher is your man to talk to.
Post-independence, arguing that the English, Welsh and Northern Irish should pay tuition fees but neither the Scots nor anyone else in the EU should [again, assuming EU membership as per the SNP's desire] is just incoherent, inconsistent and indefensible.
The Wets were aghast at Thatcher, a lower middle class grocers daughter, and the prospect of some of the lower orders actually gaining power and heaven forfend even taking over the party. The current government are Uber-Wets and consider they being the upper orders know best.
The Tories will go the way of the UUP soon and for the same reason. The UUP crashed because when it came to the crunch their voters didn't trust their elite on matters of the gravest national importance; that would adversly impact their lifestyles if the wrong decision was made, so voted for a grassroots alternative formed from the working and lower middle class, who, whatever reservations they may have had about them and some of their more hardline members, when the chips were down they did trust on grave matters to implement a solution that benefitted the people, not just the elite. Lack of trust of the elite to act in the interest of the people was the key.
A respectable party actually run by the working and lower middle class and implementing their views is also incredibly dangerous to Labour which has largely eliminated the members influence since New Labour, but still allows the union barons to disproportionally influence them; like aristocratic landowners and industrialists influence the tories. (I speak as a union member opted out of the political fund, fed up with my Union wasting money on political campaigns and Cuban solidarity rubbish etc. rather than day to day member support which they let us down badly on a while back)
To have any chance of survival in the long term, Labour and the Tories need to reform so that the partv membership actually gets to decide and/or influence policy, as is the case with the Lib Dems and UKIP.
The rules are that EU students get the same rights as locals.
There are a couple of ways that an independent Scotland could charge English students. One would be to not join the EU, another would be to charge all students including Scots.
Free education for English students would not be a bad deal though for independent Scotland as a number would stay on in Scotland as permenant migrants, thereby repaying the Scottish taxpayer.
*laughs*
It may have the potential to usurp the Conservatives but it needs to put in place strong foundations now.
They have already given people like me hope, just by achieving what they have to date, because for the first time in many years (at least since IDS was defenestrated), I feel that there is a respectable party I can vote for without a nagging doubt that I am just being thrown a few bones by a liberal leadership to keep me onside. (I'm not a member by the way)
So what is going on? I suspect that many tories are aware of how deeply divided the party is on the EU and how difficult an appointment is going to be. A Commissioner requires to swear an oath on taking office promising to work for the good of the EU and to disregard the interests of their native country. What sort of a sceptic could give such an oath? If, on the other hand, Cameron chooses a non sceptic he faces serious dissatisfaction in the party and the risk of another fillip for UKIP with everyone questioning once again his commitment to an in out referendum etc.
So does Cameron duck the question and simply renew Baroness Ashton (assuming she wants it anyway)? No. A European Commissioner is probably the closest a UK PM has to appointing a Supreme Court Justice in the US. It is the opportunity to insert someone whose views you believe to be compatible into the highest chamber where they will continue to have influence even after the appointer has left office. No politician can turn down such an opportunity.
So who? Mitchell might be a possibility but I agree with those who say there is going to be ongoing baggage from the absurd Plebgate affair. Also by associating himself so closely with Davies and other trouble makers he will have won few friends in Downing Street.
My guess would be William Hague. Hague is a heavy hitter but has said many times he has no ambitions to become leader again. He knows the leaders and other key players well from his attendance at meetings of the the EU Foreign Ministers and gets on well with the French. If Britain really is going to renegotiate a revisal of the treaties having someone like him on the inside is likely to make finding a workable compromise far easier. The other member states would appreciate Britain nominating someone of such seniority and it is likely he would get an important portfolio. I think he is the logical choice.
For exactly the same reason I don't expect the next election to be the bloodbath for the libdems many people think.
Too early in the morning for you to spot irony Jacky? Never mind. I'm sure your arse will wake you up properly soon enough.
A free school in Newham, East London, gets the save number of pupils into Oxbridge as a£32k a year public school:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyyoung/100254017/free-schools-oxbridge-triumph/
Too early in the morning for you to spot irony Jacky? Never mind. I'm sure your arse will wake you up properly soon enough.
Too early in the morning for you to spot irony Porky? Never mind. I'm sure you'll properly grasp your arse from your elbow soon enough.
Its rather like EU laws on benefits. There is no requirement for recpricocity, just that EU residents get the same treatment as domestic residents.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/libdemdefence/
I don't see how that can be right. LD prospects seem to hinge on the Conservatives suffering the same loss of support in 2015 as the LDs, and that just doesn't seem likely.
They should know their place, cap in hand at the rich mans gate.
I think that being so anti English students is unwise. The SNP is not anti immigrant, and English graduates of Scottish universities are quite likely to be a source of skilled immigrants who would integrate well into Scottish society, as many have done in the past.
Surely you are not suggesting that the Scottish electorate is anti-English?
Will interesting to see how they do this May
When I am elected dictator for life by a grateful populace, my first decree will be that university access is decided by a lottery amongst all those who meet whatever is deemed the minimum A-level requirement. As well as being fair, it would also save a great deal of time and money: no interviews or travel required as it would take a computer about ten minutes once the exam results are known, and academics can get on with curing cancer or deciphering the Dead Sea scrolls.
All parties have a disconnect between members and voters. The LD membership voted for the coalition agreement that lost it half its voters for example. Parties do seem to find it nessecary to rein in their activists in order to appeal to a wider voter base. I think that both Labour and Conservatives have overdone this.
UKIP seems to me to be a rather ramshacke band that changes policy on the hoof in pusuit cheap populism to back a right wing agenda. It may evolve a more cohenent policy platform or collapse due to internal contradictions. I suspect the latter myself.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2537775/The-police-didnt-kill-Mark-Duggan-50-years-liberal-compassion-did.html