politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BoJo moves to joint next CON leader favourite with Moggsy foll

FrancisUrquhart said:

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Salisbury poisoning, codewords and flight departure of suspect.

twitter.com/MatthewWells/status/1019943492687187969

Still not enough evidence for Jezza and the cult....

I don't recall any comment from Corbyn on the matter for quite some time. I know at one point he agreed it was highly likely to be Russia, but seemed to row back on that at others.

Certainly my father, a born again Corbynite, doesn't think it was the Russians.

Who does he think did it?

The more "sensible" of the tin foil hat conspiracy stuff is that it was a rogue Russian agent getting their own back on some long held grudge for the double agent treason or linked to criminality.

MarqueeMark said:

grabcocque said:

kle4 said:

Unfortunately for us all those in the EU who see the UK as an enemy, and especially those in the UK who see the EU as an enemy, are the ones driving the show.

Just for the record, "never interrupt your enemy while they're making a mistake" is a famous Napoleonic quip that I was alluding to. I'm not idiotic enough to believe they're actually our enemy.

Though for the purposes of negotiation, they are our *opponent* and are wiping the floor with us.

But if there is ultimately no deal, then our *opponents* will be party to a legendarily bad failure of negotiatations - that will also leave their nose on the floor. And be case-studied for decades on How To Fuck Up Negotiations on an Epic Scale.

A good negotiation gets your side a respectable win - whilst delivering the deal. Any old twat can get no deal.

williamglenn said:

Charles said:

grabcocque said:

kle4 said:

Unfortunately for us all those in the EU who see the UK as an enemy, and especially those in the UK who see the EU as an enemy, are the ones driving the show.

Just for the record, "never interrupt your enemy while they're making a mistake" is a famous Napoleonic quip that I was alluding to. I'm not idiotic enough to believe they're actually our enemy.

Though for the purposes of negotiation, they are our *opponent* and are wiping the floor with us.

Not necessarily. Only if they believe the UK won't walk away

The UK isn't a coherent single actor capable of "walking away" and a No Deal scenario is not sustainable. All that would happen is that the political forces within the UK that conspired to bring it about would face their Waterloo.

There's no way your side can win.

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

grabcocque said:

kle4 said:

The theory someone pronounced this morning was in September as EU heads of government finally put pressure onthe commission to dial it back a notch. Doesn't seem hugely likely to me though.

I just don't see why. To me the best option for the EU is just to continue to run down the clock and let the political chaos that May leaves in her wake filter through the UK body politic. The EU knows well enough to never interrupt an enemy while they're making a mistake.

You think things are febrile and desperate now, with 9 months until the cliff edge? Just imagine how things are going to be with six months, or three months to go.

All the EU needs to do is wait.

Any hope that the EU is going to suddenly take pity on May in her infinite stupidity is, I suspect, very wishful thinking.

Are we the EU's enemy? Not a soon to be nearest neighbour and ally?

Well if that's the case time to prepare for the hardest of exits and termination of defence, intelligence and other military cooperation. We don't do that with enemies.

And to think that Trump was lambasted for calling the EU a foe but according to Mr Cocque here they're not just a foe but an outright enemy.

Yep. Time for you to get your old CCF boots out, Phil.

David_Evershed said:

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

grabcocque said:

kle4 said:

The theory someone pronounced this morning was in September as EU heads of government finally put pressure onthe commission to dial it back a notch. Doesn't seem hugely likely to me though.

I just don't see why. To me the best option for the EU is just to continue to run down the clock and let the political chaos that May leaves in her wake filter through the UK body politic. The EU knows well enough to never interrupt an enemy while they're making a mistake.

You think things are febrile and desperate now, with 9 months until the cliff edge? Just imagine how things are going to be with six months, or three months to go.

All the EU needs to do is wait.

Any hope that the EU is going to suddenly take pity on May in her infinite stupidity is, I suspect, very wishful thinking.

Are we the EU's enemy? Not a soon to be nearest neighbour and ally?

Well if that's the case time to prepare for the hardest of exits and termination of defence, intelligence and other military cooperation. We don't do that with enemies.

And to think that Trump was lambasted for calling the EU a foe but according to Mr Cocque here they're not just a foe but an outright enemy.

Yep. Time for you to get your old CCF boots out, Phil.

Do schools still have combined cadet forces?

John_M said:

David_Evershed said:

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

grabcocque said:

kle4 said:

The theory someone pronounced this morning was in September as EU heads of government finally put pressure onthe commission to dial it back a notch. Doesn't seem hugely likely to me though.

I just don't see why. To me the best option for the EU is just to continue to run down the clock and let the political chaos that May leaves in her wake filter through the UK body politic. The EU knows well enough to never interrupt an enemy while they're making a mistake.

You think things are febrile and desperate now, with 9 months until the cliff edge? Just imagine how things are going to be with six months, or three months to go.

All the EU needs to do is wait.

Any hope that the EU is going to suddenly take pity on May in her infinite stupidity is, I suspect, very wishful thinking.

Are we the EU's enemy? Not a soon to be nearest neighbour and ally?

Well if that's the case time to prepare for the hardest of exits and termination of defence, intelligence and other military cooperation. We don't do that with enemies.

And to think that Trump was lambasted for calling the EU a foe but according to Mr Cocque here they're not just a foe but an outright enemy.

Yep. Time for you to get your old CCF boots out, Phil.

Do schools still have combined cadet forces?

Only the public schools in my part of Somerset.

Charles said:

williamglenn said:

Charles said:

grabcocque said:

kle4 said:

Unfortunately for us all those in the EU who see the UK as an enemy, and especially those in the UK who see the EU as an enemy, are the ones driving the show.

Just for the record, "never interrupt your enemy while they're making a mistake" is a famous Napoleonic quip that I was alluding to. I'm not idiotic enough to believe they're actually our enemy.

Though for the purposes of negotiation, they are our *opponent* and are wiping the floor with us.

Not necessarily. Only if they believe the UK won't walk away

The UK isn't a coherent single actor capable of "walking away" and a No Deal scenario is not sustainable. All that would happen is that the political forces within the UK that conspired to bring it about would face their Waterloo.

There's no way your side can win.

I don't have a side apart from the UK.

Negotiations have been badly handled by both the UK and the EU (not helped by our Remoaners)

There was an acceptable outcome that could have been achieved but our political leaders (on both sides) were too proud/incompetent/weak to achieve it.

At this point walking away may be the best option.

I hope that the EU wouldn't do things like ground planes. That would be a very hostile step for them to take.

Charles said:

John_M said:

David_Evershed said:

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

grabcocque said:

kle4 said:

The theory someone pronounced this morning was in September as EU heads of government finally put pressure onthe commission to dial it back a notch. Doesn't seem hugely likely to me though.

I just don't see why. To me the best option for the EU is just to continue to run down the clock and let the political chaos that May leaves in her wake filter through the UK body politic. The EU knows well enough to never interrupt an enemy while they're making a mistake.

You think things are febrile and desperate now, with 9 months until the cliff edge? Just imagine how things are going to be with six months, or three months to go.

All the EU needs to do is wait.

Any hope that the EU is going to suddenly take pity on May in her infinite stupidity is, I suspect, very wishful thinking.

Are we the EU's enemy? Not a soon to be nearest neighbour and ally?

Well if that's the case time to prepare for the hardest of exits and termination of defence, intelligence and other military cooperation. We don't do that with enemies.

And to think that Trump was lambasted for calling the EU a foe but according to Mr Cocque here they're not just a foe but an outright enemy.

Yep. Time for you to get your old CCF boots out, Phil.

Do schools still have combined cadet forces?

Only the public schools in my part of Somerset.

Welcome back

bigjohnowls said:

twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1019963581121683456

SandyRentool said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big G just too strong. Team Sky surely have to make him team leader.

It could all come down to the time trial.

Morris_Dancer said:

Hard for me to see anyone but a footballer getting SPOTY.

Edited extra bit: although I do have an atrocious record in the market. Particularly galling was backing Farah a year before he won it.

Elliot said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Hard for me to see anyone but a footballer getting SPOTY.

Edited extra bit: although I do have an atrocious record in the market. Particularly galling was backing Farah a year before he won it.

Are football managers eligible?

AndyJS said:

Both main parties are pretty awful at the moment.

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

RobD said:

kle4 said:

dr_spyn said:

Dead cat thrown on to table.

https://twitter.com/labourlewis/status/1019963478357004292

Classy whataboutery stuff from Clive Lewis.

Yes, although that is a careless tweet from Javid in fairness, depending on what the person he was replying to said.

Who knows, they've deleted their account.

This is the tweet:

https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1019901376300797952

Utterly disgusting.

williamglenn said:

Charles said:

williamglenn said:

Charles said:

grabcocque said:

kle4 said:

Unfortunately for us all those in the EU who see the UK as an enemy, and especially those in the UK who see the EU as an enemy, are the ones driving the show.

Just for the record, "never interrupt your enemy while they're making a mistake" is a famous Napoleonic quip that I was alluding to. I'm not idiotic enough to believe they're actually our enemy.

Though for the purposes of negotiation, they are our *opponent* and are wiping the floor with us.

Not necessarily. Only if they believe the UK won't walk away

The UK isn't a coherent single actor capable of "walking away" and a No Deal scenario is not sustainable. All that would happen is that the political forces within the UK that conspired to bring it about would face their Waterloo.

There's no way your side can win.

I don't have a side apart from the UK.

Negotiations have been badly handled by both the UK and the EU (not helped by our Remoaners)

There was an acceptable outcome that could have been achieved but our political leaders (on both sides) were too proud/incompetent/weak to achieve it.

At this point walking away may be the best option.

I hope that the EU wouldn't do things like ground planes. That would be a very hostile step for them to take.

Can I assume that a Chequers-based outcome is unacceptable to you?

david_herdson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Elliot said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Hard for me to see anyone but a footballer getting SPOTY.

Edited extra bit: although I do have an atrocious record in the market. Particularly galling was backing Farah a year before he won it.

Are football managers eligible?

I don't think it should be one of the players. They did great as a team, but even Kane who won the golden boot wasn't at his best.

It should be Southgate, both for performance and also as in the name of the game, he showed real personality.

I don't think there's a rule that says that it can't be a manager, though of course the public are limited these days to the candidates presented. There is an individual Coach of the Year category but then there's also a Young Sportsperson category and that wouldn't rule someone out of the main prize too.

As far as the individual players are concerned, I thought Pickford deserves as much credit as anyone.

williamglenn said:

grabcocque said:

kle4 said:

The theory someone pronounced this morning was in September as EU heads of government finally put pressure onthe commission to dial it back a notch. Doesn't seem hugely likely to me though.

I just don't see why. To me the best option for the EU is just to continue to run down the clock and let the political chaos that May leaves in her wake filter through the UK body politic. The EU knows well enough to never interrupt an enemy while they're making a mistake.

You think things are febrile and desperate now, with 9 months until the cliff edge? Just imagine how things are going to be with six months, or three months to go.

All the EU needs to do is wait.

Any hope that the EU is going to suddenly take pity on May in her infinite stupidity is, I suspect, very wishful thinking.

We shouldn't rule out the possibility that May knows what she's doing and her aim is No Brexit and to conduct an ERG-ectomy on the Tory party.

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

grabcocque said:

kle4 said:

The theory someone pronounced this morning was in September as EU heads of government finally put pressure onthe commission to dial it back a notch. Doesn't seem hugely likely to me though.

I just don't see why. To me the best option for the EU is just to continue to run down the clock and let the political chaos that May leaves in her wake filter through the UK body politic. The EU knows well enough to never interrupt an enemy while they're making a mistake.

You think things are febrile and desperate now, with 9 months until the cliff edge? Just imagine how things are going to be with six months, or three months to go.

All the EU needs to do is wait.

Any hope that the EU is going to suddenly take pity on May in her infinite stupidity is, I suspect, very wishful thinking.

We shouldn't rule out the possibility that May knows what she's doing and her aim is No Brexit and to conduct an ERG-ectomy on the Tory party.

In which case the odds of UKIP overtaking the Tories at the subsequent general election would shorten considerably given 70% of current Tory voters voted Leave. Which also confirms why she would be replaced as leader if she tried

surby said:

HYUFD said:

Pro_Rata said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Pro_Rata said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

ExiledInScotland said:

Pro_Rata said:

What is the balance in the Tory MP electorate?

I see the guess is that Tory MPs voted 176 remain, 141 leave, so I'll take that as a start point for putting a finger in the air:

Voted remain / Chequers sceptic / arder now - 90
of whom, social liberals - 20
social conservatives - 70

Does that sound anywhere near the mark?

Isn't it a bit simpler than that?
Want to leave 100%... - 40
Want to remain 100%... - 40
Want to keep their jobs so will watch the polls.... - 237

Is there any reason to think more than 13 want to remain at any cost?

It's probably not as high as 13. Some of those rebels would live with an EEA settlement. Four or five would fight on though.

Behind rebellions there are always more sympathisers. If

They may be sympathisers but they're not 100% at any cost ones. Nor is anyone saying its 13/317.

It's more like

Remain 100% at any cost - 13
Want their jobs - 244
Leave 100% at any cost - 60

.... If one did stand, Greening would be my likely guess.


But if it's not Hammond, then the ability to pitch soft to these 120 MPs, without being too overt, may be a benefit and deliver one of the candidates to the members.

If MPs are looking to their own prospects, which do they fear more - the howls of betrayal or the howls as the voters face the reality of hard Brexit?

408 out of 650 seats voted Leave, most MPs know their constituents backed Brexit in fact more represent Leave seats as a percentage than the 52% who voted Leave in the popular vote across the UK

This argument applies more to Tories than Labour. For example, just because a constituency voted Leave [ i.e. more than 50% ], it does not mean 50% of Labour voters voted Leave. Also, as we saw, all Leave voters do not vote Tory or against Labour. Remember in 2017, Tories got 42% and UKIP 3%. So , at least, 7% voted for Labour [ probably more since LD vote hardly budged and SNP vote actually fell ]

CarlottaVance said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

grabcocque said:

kle4 said:

The theory someone pronounced this morning was in September as EU heads of government finally put pressure onthe commission to dial it back a notch. Doesn't seem hugely likely to me though.

I just don't see why. To me the best option for the EU is just to continue to run down the clock and let the political chaos that May leaves in her wake filter through the UK body politic. The EU knows well enough to never interrupt an enemy while they're making a mistake.

You think things are febrile and desperate now, with 9 months until the cliff edge? Just imagine how things are going to be with six months, or three months to go.

All the EU needs to do is wait.

Any hope that the EU is going to suddenly take pity on May in her infinite stupidity is, I suspect, very wishful thinking.

We shouldn't rule out the possibility that May knows what she's doing and her aim is No Brexit and to conduct an ERG-ectomy on the Tory party.

In which case the odds of UKIP overtaking the Tories at the subsequent general election would shorten considerably given 70% of current Tory voters voted Leave. Which also confirms why she would be replaced as leader if she tried

Mrs May is a greater respecter of democracy than Mr Glenn appears to be.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Benpointer said:

Interesting take on 'No Deal' from Simon Jenkins. "... crashing out would not mean hard Brexit, but rather remain in all but name."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/19/no-deal-brexit-britain-eu-wto-march

I've been thinking about this, and my conclusion is much the same. There would simply be no alternative than to keep everything unchanged for an extended transition period, a sort of Brexit purgatory while everyone works out what to do next. In the case of the UK at least, that could take years.

Philip_Thompson said:

Benpointer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

RobD said:

kle4 said:

dr_spyn said:

Dead cat thrown on to table.

https://twitter.com/labourlewis/status/1019963478357004292

Classy whataboutery stuff from Clive Lewis.

Yes, although that is a careless tweet from Javid in fairness, depending on what the person he was replying to said.

Who knows, they've deleted their account.

This is the tweet:

https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1019901376300797952

Utterly disgusting.

Javid is entirely right to refute the holocaust denier but he then goes on to incorrectly imply Corbyn is one too - that's the outrageous part imo.

Corbyn has been friends with and encouraged holocaust deniers and antisemites for decades.
Corbyn has welcome holocaust deniers and antisemites back into the party.
Corbyn is changing the definition of antisemitism within Labour from that of the international standard set by the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance.
Corbyn is taking no action against his supporters that are holocaust deniers and antisemites.
Corbyn is taking action against one of his own MPs who is a Jew who lost relatives in the Holocaust herself for raising concerns.

But yes Corbyn is spotless.

Philip_Thompson said:

Benpointer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

RobD said:

kle4 said:

dr_spyn said:

Dead cat thrown on to table.

https://twitter.com/labourlewis/status/1019963478357004292

Classy whataboutery stuff from Clive Lewis.

Yes, although that is a careless tweet from Javid in fairness, depending on what the person he was replying to said.

Who knows, they've deleted their account.

This is the tweet:

https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1019901376300797952

Utterly disgusting.

Javid is entirely right to refute the holocaust denier but he then goes on to incorrectly imply Corbyn is one too - that's the outrageous part imo.

Corbyn has been friends with and encouraged holocaust deniers and antisemites for decades.
Corbyn has welcome holocaust deniers and antisemites back into the party.
Corbyn is changing the definition of antisemitism within Labour from that of the international standard set by the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance.
Corbyn is taking no action against his supporters that are holocaust deniers and antisemites.
Corbyn is taking action against one of his own MPs who is a Jew who lost relatives in the Holocaust herself for raising concerns.

But yes Corbyn is spotless.