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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BoJo moves to joint next CON leader favourite with Moggsy foll

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,169
    Big G just too strong. Team Sky surely have to make him team leader.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Salisbury poisoning, codewords and flight departure of suspect.

    twitter.com/MatthewWells/status/1019943492687187969

    Still not enough evidence for Jezza and the cult....
    I don't recall any comment from Corbyn on the matter for quite some time. I know at one point he agreed it was highly likely to be Russia, but seemed to row back on that at others.

    Certainly my father, a born again Corbynite, doesn't think it was the Russians.
    Who does he think did it?
    The more "sensible" of the tin foil hat conspiracy stuff is that it was a rogue Russian agent getting their own back on some long held grudge for the double agent treason or linked to criminality.
    That sounds about right. The rogue agent in question being called Vladimir Putin, linked to the criminal mafias that pervade Russia's economy and state machinery.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Charles said:

    kle4 said:


    Unfortunately for us all those in the EU who see the UK as an enemy, and especially those in the UK who see the EU as an enemy, are the ones driving the show.

    Just for the record, "never interrupt your enemy while they're making a mistake" is a famous Napoleonic quip that I was alluding to. I'm not idiotic enough to believe they're actually our enemy.

    Though for the purposes of negotiation, they are our *opponent* and are wiping the floor with us.
    Not necessarily. Only if they believe the UK won't walk away
    May wouldn't walk away. Boris and/or JRM might. Or the ERM might force us over the cliff.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,394

    kle4 said:


    Unfortunately for us all those in the EU who see the UK as an enemy, and especially those in the UK who see the EU as an enemy, are the ones driving the show.

    Just for the record, "never interrupt your enemy while they're making a mistake" is a famous Napoleonic quip that I was alluding to. I'm not idiotic enough to believe they're actually our enemy.

    Though for the purposes of negotiation, they are our *opponent* and are wiping the floor with us.
    But if there is ultimately no deal, then our *opponents* will be party to a legendarily bad failure of negotiatations - that will also leave their nose on the floor. And be case-studied for decades on How To Fuck Up Negotiations on an Epic Scale.

    A good negotiation gets your side a respectable win - whilst delivering the deal. Any old twat can get no deal.
    One would want any deal to be acceptable to both sides, or it won't stick.

    Donald Trump's world view is that one side must screw the other, which only works in the very short term.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,169
    Only 9% of crimes end with suspects being charged or summonsed in England and Wales

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-44884113
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited July 2018

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:


    Unfortunately for us all those in the EU who see the UK as an enemy, and especially those in the UK who see the EU as an enemy, are the ones driving the show.

    Just for the record, "never interrupt your enemy while they're making a mistake" is a famous Napoleonic quip that I was alluding to. I'm not idiotic enough to believe they're actually our enemy.

    Though for the purposes of negotiation, they are our *opponent* and are wiping the floor with us.
    Not necessarily. Only if they believe the UK won't walk away
    The UK isn't a coherent single actor capable of "walking away" and a No Deal scenario is not sustainable. All that would happen is that the political forces within the UK that conspired to bring it about would face their Waterloo.

    There's no way your side can win.
    I don't have a side apart from the UK.

    Negotiations have been badly handled by both the UK and the EU (not helped by our Remoaners)

    There was an acceptable outcome that could have been achieved but our political leaders (on both sides) were too proud/incompetent/weak to achieve it.

    At this point walking away may be the best option.

    I hope that the EU wouldn't do things like ground planes. That would be a very hostile step for them to take.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,783
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Dead cat thrown on to table.

    https://twitter.com/labourlewis/status/1019963478357004292

    Classy whataboutery stuff from Clive Lewis.

    Yes, although that is a careless tweet from Javid in fairness, depending on what the person he was replying to said.
    Who knows, they've deleted their account.
    This is the tweet:

    https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1019901376300797952
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:


    The theory someone pronounced this morning was in September as EU heads of government finally put pressure onthe commission to dial it back a notch. Doesn't seem hugely likely to me though.

    I just don't see why. To me the best option for the EU is just to continue to run down the clock and let the political chaos that May leaves in her wake filter through the UK body politic. The EU knows well enough to never interrupt an enemy while they're making a mistake.

    You think things are febrile and desperate now, with 9 months until the cliff edge? Just imagine how things are going to be with six months, or three months to go.

    All the EU needs to do is wait.

    Any hope that the EU is going to suddenly take pity on May in her infinite stupidity is, I suspect, very wishful thinking.
    Are we the EU's enemy? Not a soon to be nearest neighbour and ally?

    Well if that's the case time to prepare for the hardest of exits and termination of defence, intelligence and other military cooperation. We don't do that with enemies.

    And to think that Trump was lambasted for calling the EU a foe but according to Mr Cocque here they're not just a foe but an outright enemy.
    Yep. Time for you to get your old CCF boots out, Phil.
    Do schools still have combined cadet forces?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,044

    Big G just too strong. Team Sky surely have to make him team leader.

    It could all come down to the time trial.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,002

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:


    The theory someone pronounced this morning was in September as EU heads of government finally put pressure onthe commission to dial it back a notch. Doesn't seem hugely likely to me though.

    I just don't see why. To me the best option for the EU is just to continue to run down the clock and let the political chaos that May leaves in her wake filter through the UK body politic. The EU knows well enough to never interrupt an enemy while they're making a mistake.

    You think things are febrile and desperate now, with 9 months until the cliff edge? Just imagine how things are going to be with six months, or three months to go.

    All the EU needs to do is wait.

    Any hope that the EU is going to suddenly take pity on May in her infinite stupidity is, I suspect, very wishful thinking.
    Are we the EU's enemy? Not a soon to be nearest neighbour and ally?

    Well if that's the case time to prepare for the hardest of exits and termination of defence, intelligence and other military cooperation. We don't do that with enemies.

    And to think that Trump was lambasted for calling the EU a foe but according to Mr Cocque here they're not just a foe but an outright enemy.
    Yep. Time for you to get your old CCF boots out, Phil.
    Do schools still have combined cadet forces?
    I believe they do.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:


    The theory someone pronounced this morning was in September as EU heads of government finally put pressure onthe commission to dial it back a notch. Doesn't seem hugely likely to me though.

    I just don't see why. To me the best option for the EU is just to continue to run down the clock and let the political chaos that May leaves in her wake filter through the UK body politic. The EU knows well enough to never interrupt an enemy while they're making a mistake.

    You think things are febrile and desperate now, with 9 months until the cliff edge? Just imagine how things are going to be with six months, or three months to go.

    All the EU needs to do is wait.

    Any hope that the EU is going to suddenly take pity on May in her infinite stupidity is, I suspect, very wishful thinking.
    Are we the EU's enemy? Not a soon to be nearest neighbour and ally?

    Well if that's the case time to prepare for the hardest of exits and termination of defence, intelligence and other military cooperation. We don't do that with enemies.

    And to think that Trump was lambasted for calling the EU a foe but according to Mr Cocque here they're not just a foe but an outright enemy.
    Yep. Time for you to get your old CCF boots out, Phil.
    Do schools still have combined cadet forces?
    Only the public schools in my part of Somerset.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:


    The theory someone pronounced this morning was in September as EU heads of government finally put pressure onthe commission to dial it back a notch. Doesn't seem hugely likely to me though.

    I just don't see why. To me the best option for the EU is just to continue to run down the clock and let the political chaos that May leaves in her wake filter through the UK body politic. The EU knows well enough to never interrupt an enemy while they're making a mistake.

    You think things are febrile and desperate now, with 9 months until the cliff edge? Just imagine how things are going to be with six months, or three months to go.

    All the EU needs to do is wait.

    Any hope that the EU is going to suddenly take pity on May in her infinite stupidity is, I suspect, very wishful thinking.
    Are we the EU's enemy? Not a soon to be nearest neighbour and ally?

    Well if that's the case time to prepare for the hardest of exits and termination of defence, intelligence and other military cooperation. We don't do that with enemies.

    And to think that Trump was lambasted for calling the EU a foe but according to Mr Cocque here they're not just a foe but an outright enemy.
    Yep. Time for you to get your old CCF boots out, Phil.
    Do schools still have combined cadet forces?
    Only the public schools in my part of Somerset.
    Welcome back
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    dr_spyn said:

    Dead cat thrown on to table.

    https://twitter.com/labourlewis/status/1019963478357004292

    Classy whataboutery stuff from Clive Lewis.

    Corbynsplaining allows them to tell Jews what anti-Semitism is and call out Muslims on Islamophobia.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,754
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:


    Unfortunately for us all those in the EU who see the UK as an enemy, and especially those in the UK who see the EU as an enemy, are the ones driving the show.

    Just for the record, "never interrupt your enemy while they're making a mistake" is a famous Napoleonic quip that I was alluding to. I'm not idiotic enough to believe they're actually our enemy.

    Though for the purposes of negotiation, they are our *opponent* and are wiping the floor with us.
    Not necessarily. Only if they believe the UK won't walk away
    The UK isn't a coherent single actor capable of "walking away" and a No Deal scenario is not sustainable. All that would happen is that the political forces within the UK that conspired to bring it about would face their Waterloo.

    There's no way your side can win.
    I don't have a side apart from the UK.

    Negotiations have been badly handled by both the UK and the EU (not helped by our Remoaners)

    There was an acceptable outcome that could have been achieved but our political leaders (on both sides) were too proud/incompetent/weak to achieve it.

    At this point walking away may be the best option.

    I hope that the EU wouldn't do things like ground planes. That would be a very hostile step for them to take.
    Can I assume that a Chequers-based outcome is unacceptable to you?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,222
    G is on good form for the TTs :

    https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/racing/british-racing/geraint-thomas-wins-british-national-time-trial-384503

    Tbh I thought Froome would win before today, but this was the toughest mountain stage so I think it'll be G.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,169
    Clive Lewis, so dense light bends around him.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,169
    Pulpstar said:

    G is on good form for the TTs :

    https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/racing/british-racing/geraint-thomas-wins-british-national-time-trial-384503

    Tbh I thought Froome would win before today, but this was the toughest mountain stage so I think it'll be G.

    I know Froome gave it a burst to try and break free, but Thomas just looks so strong. By the end Froome was hanging on, while Thomas was full of beans.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,815
    edited July 2018
    Hard for me to see anyone but a footballer getting SPOTY.

    Edited extra bit: although I do have an atrocious record in the market. Particularly galling was backing Farah a year before he won it.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Charles said:

    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:


    The theory someone pronounced this morning was in September as EU heads of government finally put pressure onthe commission to dial it back a notch. Doesn't seem hugely likely to me though.

    I just don't see why. To me the best option for the EU is just to continue to run down the clock and let the political chaos that May leaves in her wake filter through the UK body politic. The EU knows well enough to never interrupt an enemy while they're making a mistake.

    You think things are febrile and desperate now, with 9 months until the cliff edge? Just imagine how things are going to be with six months, or three months to go.

    All the EU needs to do is wait.

    Any hope that the EU is going to suddenly take pity on May in her infinite stupidity is, I suspect, very wishful thinking.
    Are we the EU's enemy? Not a soon to be nearest neighbour and ally?

    Well if that's the case time to prepare for the hardest of exits and termination of defence, intelligence and other military cooperation. We don't do that with enemies.

    And to think that Trump was lambasted for calling the EU a foe but according to Mr Cocque here they're not just a foe but an outright enemy.
    Yep. Time for you to get your old CCF boots out, Phil.
    Do schools still have combined cadet forces?
    Only the public schools in my part of Somerset.
    Welcome back
    Thanks Charles, I still read PB on occasion, just to see if we've broken out of the time loop that is Brexit: The Refightening.

    Now that the rubber is about to hit the road, things should get a bit more interesting.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,169
    edited July 2018

    twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1019963581121683456

    The dodgy doctor stealing video clips off other people without giving credit.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    dr_spyn said:

    Dead cat thrown on to table.

    https://twitter.com/labourlewis/status/1019963478357004292

    Classy whataboutery stuff from Clive Lewis.

    Corbynsplaining allows them to tell Jews what anti-Semitism is and call out Muslims on Islamophobia.
    Javid isn't a Muslim.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,751

    Big G just too strong. Team Sky surely have to make him team leader.

    It could all come down to the time trial.
    For the time being, they don't need to decide. Both are racing in tandem and it's useful to Sky to have two such strong racers that their opponents need to mark.

    Problem comes if they have to make a tactical team call to support one over the other - allocating domestiques to recover a lead back in, or to require/refuse a wheel swap etc
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,783

    dr_spyn said:

    Dead cat thrown on to table.

    https://twitter.com/labourlewis/status/1019963478357004292

    Classy whataboutery stuff from Clive Lewis.

    Corbynsplaining allows them to tell Jews what anti-Semitism is and call out Muslims on Islamophobia.
    What have the Tories to offer a Muslim bus drivers son from Bristol?

    They made him Home Secretary.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Hard for me to see anyone but a footballer getting SPOTY.

    Edited extra bit: although I do have an atrocious record in the market. Particularly galling was backing Farah a year before he won it.

    Are football managers eligible?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,740

    dr_spyn said:

    Dead cat thrown on to table.

    https://twitter.com/labourlewis/status/1019963478357004292

    Classy whataboutery stuff from Clive Lewis.

    Corbynsplaining allows them to tell Jews what anti-Semitism is and call out Muslims on Islamophobia.
    LOL. 'Corbynsplaining' had me spitting wine over my keyboard.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    dr_spyn said:

    Dead cat thrown on to table.

    https://twitter.com/labourlewis/status/1019963478357004292

    Classy whataboutery stuff from Clive Lewis.

    Corbynsplaining allows them to tell Jews what anti-Semitism is and call out Muslims on Islamophobia.
    What have the Tories to offer a Muslim bus drivers son from Bristol?

    They made him Home Secretary.
    Javid is as Muslim as I am.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,740
    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:


    The theory someone pronounced this morning was in September as EU heads of government finally put pressure onthe commission to dial it back a notch. Doesn't seem hugely likely to me though.

    I just don't see why. To me the best option for the EU is just to continue to run down the clock and let the political chaos that May leaves in her wake filter through the UK body politic. The EU knows well enough to never interrupt an enemy while they're making a mistake.

    You think things are febrile and desperate now, with 9 months until the cliff edge? Just imagine how things are going to be with six months, or three months to go.

    All the EU needs to do is wait.

    Any hope that the EU is going to suddenly take pity on May in her infinite stupidity is, I suspect, very wishful thinking.
    Are we the EU's enemy? Not a soon to be nearest neighbour and ally?

    Well if that's the case time to prepare for the hardest of exits and termination of defence, intelligence and other military cooperation. We don't do that with enemies.

    And to think that Trump was lambasted for calling the EU a foe but according to Mr Cocque here they're not just a foe but an outright enemy.
    Yep. Time for you to get your old CCF boots out, Phil.
    Do schools still have combined cadet forces?
    Only the public schools in my part of Somerset.
    I've just checked; my old school in Staffordshite still has a CCF.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,169
    edited July 2018
    Elliot said:

    Hard for me to see anyone but a footballer getting SPOTY.

    Edited extra bit: although I do have an atrocious record in the market. Particularly galling was backing Farah a year before he won it.

    Are football managers eligible?
    I don't think it should be one of the players. They did great as a team, but even Kane who won the golden boot wasn't at his best.

    It should be Southgate, both for performance and also as in the name of the game, he showed real personality.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,783
    Elliot said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Dead cat thrown on to table.

    https://twitter.com/labourlewis/status/1019963478357004292

    Classy whataboutery stuff from Clive Lewis.

    Corbynsplaining allows them to tell Jews what anti-Semitism is and call out Muslims on Islamophobia.
    Javid isn't a Muslim.
    Hmm. A technicality. He was raised a Muslim. Lapsed iirc.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Both main parties are pretty awful at the moment.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    What the EU wants from a deal with India:

    There is enough blame to go around. European officials complain that India shows no flexibility in its trade negotiations, in particular, three areas where they want greater market access: dairy, automobiles and wine. EU officials TOI spoke to also said in the past five years, India is a very different kind of economy, so the old rules of negotiations cannot apply.

    https://m.timesofindia.com/india/eu-fta-almost-dead-india-now-eyes-post-brexit-uk/amp_articleshow/65046938.cms?__twitter_impression=true
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,740
    AndyJS said:

    Both main parties are pretty awful at the moment.

    And the third (in EW&S) is invisible. Someone need to plug in the Cable ...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Dead cat thrown on to table.

    https://twitter.com/labourlewis/status/1019963478357004292

    Classy whataboutery stuff from Clive Lewis.

    Yes, although that is a careless tweet from Javid in fairness, depending on what the person he was replying to said.
    Who knows, they've deleted their account.
    This is the tweet:

    https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1019901376300797952
    Utterly disgusting.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,169
    edited July 2018

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Dead cat thrown on to table.

    https://twitter.com/labourlewis/status/1019963478357004292

    Classy whataboutery stuff from Clive Lewis.

    Yes, although that is a careless tweet from Javid in fairness, depending on what the person he was replying to said.
    Who knows, they've deleted their account.
    This is the tweet:

    https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1019901376300797952
    Utterly disgusting.
    For the cult, it is Javid who is totally in the wrong....a typical tweet.

    https://twitter.com/Muqadaam/status/1019938244153303040
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Interesting take on 'No Deal' from Simon Jenkins. "... crashing out would not mean hard Brexit, but rather remain in all but name."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/19/no-deal-brexit-britain-eu-wto-march
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,751

    Elliot said:

    Hard for me to see anyone but a footballer getting SPOTY.

    Edited extra bit: although I do have an atrocious record in the market. Particularly galling was backing Farah a year before he won it.

    Are football managers eligible?
    I don't think it should be one of the players. They did great as a team, but even Kane who won the golden boot wasn't at his best.

    It should be Southgate, both for performance and also as in the name of the game, he showed real personality.
    I don't think there's a rule that says that it can't be a manager, though of course the public are limited these days to the candidates presented. There is an individual Coach of the Year category but then there's also a Young Sportsperson category and that wouldn't rule someone out of the main prize too.

    As far as the individual players are concerned, I thought Pickford deserves as much credit as anyone.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:


    Unfortunately for us all those in the EU who see the UK as an enemy, and especially those in the UK who see the EU as an enemy, are the ones driving the show.

    Just for the record, "never interrupt your enemy while they're making a mistake" is a famous Napoleonic quip that I was alluding to. I'm not idiotic enough to believe they're actually our enemy.

    Though for the purposes of negotiation, they are our *opponent* and are wiping the floor with us.
    Not necessarily. Only if they believe the UK won't walk away
    The UK isn't a coherent single actor capable of "walking away" and a No Deal scenario is not sustainable. All that would happen is that the political forces within the UK that conspired to bring it about would face their Waterloo.

    There's no way your side can win.
    I don't have a side apart from the UK.

    Negotiations have been badly handled by both the UK and the EU (not helped by our Remoaners)

    There was an acceptable outcome that could have been achieved but our political leaders (on both sides) were too proud/incompetent/weak to achieve it.

    At this point walking away may be the best option.

    I hope that the EU wouldn't do things like ground planes. That would be a very hostile step for them to take.
    Can I assume that a Chequers-based outcome is unacceptable to you?
    I've been too busy to read the detail. It feels like we have been negotiating against ourselves. But I think FoM is very difficult to sell and still respect the referendum result.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,169

    Elliot said:

    Hard for me to see anyone but a footballer getting SPOTY.

    Edited extra bit: although I do have an atrocious record in the market. Particularly galling was backing Farah a year before he won it.

    Are football managers eligible?
    I don't think it should be one of the players. They did great as a team, but even Kane who won the golden boot wasn't at his best.

    It should be Southgate, both for performance and also as in the name of the game, he showed real personality.
    I don't think there's a rule that says that it can't be a manager, though of course the public are limited these days to the candidates presented. There is an individual Coach of the Year category but then there's also a Young Sportsperson category and that wouldn't rule someone out of the main prize too.

    As far as the individual players are concerned, I thought Pickford deserves as much credit as anyone.
    One of the best saves ever in the world cup...that nobody will remember...

    https://twitter.com/BBCMOTD/status/1014513168016539650
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Dead cat thrown on to table.

    https://twitter.com/labourlewis/status/1019963478357004292

    Classy whataboutery stuff from Clive Lewis.

    Yes, although that is a careless tweet from Javid in fairness, depending on what the person he was replying to said.
    Who knows, they've deleted their account.
    This is the tweet:

    https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1019901376300797952
    Utterly disgusting.
    Javid is entirely right to refute the holocaust denier but he then goes on to incorrectly imply Corbyn is one too - that's the outrageous part imo.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212

    kle4 said:


    The theory someone pronounced this morning was in September as EU heads of government finally put pressure onthe commission to dial it back a notch. Doesn't seem hugely likely to me though.

    I just don't see why. To me the best option for the EU is just to continue to run down the clock and let the political chaos that May leaves in her wake filter through the UK body politic. The EU knows well enough to never interrupt an enemy while they're making a mistake.

    You think things are febrile and desperate now, with 9 months until the cliff edge? Just imagine how things are going to be with six months, or three months to go.

    All the EU needs to do is wait.

    Any hope that the EU is going to suddenly take pity on May in her infinite stupidity is, I suspect, very wishful thinking.
    We shouldn't rule out the possibility that May knows what she's doing and her aim is No Brexit and to conduct an ERG-ectomy on the Tory party.
    In which case the odds of UKIP overtaking the Tories at the subsequent general election would shorten considerably given 70% of current Tory voters voted Leave. Which also confirms why she would be replaced as leader if she tried
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited July 2018

    Interesting take on 'No Deal' from Simon Jenkins. "... crashing out would not mean hard Brexit, but rather remain in all but name."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/19/no-deal-brexit-britain-eu-wto-march

    I've been thinking about this, and my conclusion is much the same. There would simply be no alternative than to keep everything unchanged for an extended transition period, a sort of Brexit purgatory while everyone works out what to do next. In the case of the UK at least, that could take years.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:


    The theory someone pronounced this morning was in September as EU heads of government finally put pressure onthe commission to dial it back a notch. Doesn't seem hugely likely to me though.

    I just don't see why. To me the best option for the EU is just to continue to run down the clock and let the political chaos that May leaves in her wake filter through the UK body politic. The EU knows well enough to never interrupt an enemy while they're making a mistake.

    You think things are febrile and desperate now, with 9 months until the cliff edge? Just imagine how things are going to be with six months, or three months to go.

    All the EU needs to do is wait.

    Any hope that the EU is going to suddenly take pity on May in her infinite stupidity is, I suspect, very wishful thinking.
    We shouldn't rule out the possibility that May knows what she's doing and her aim is No Brexit and to conduct an ERG-ectomy on the Tory party.
    In which case the odds of UKIP overtaking the Tories at the subsequent general election would shorten considerably given 70% of current Tory voters voted Leave. Which also confirms why she would be replaced as leader if she tried
    Mrs May is a greater respecter of democracy than Mr Glenn appears to be.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,754
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:


    The theory someone pronounced this morning was in September as EU heads of government finally put pressure onthe commission to dial it back a notch. Doesn't seem hugely likely to me though.

    I just don't see why. To me the best option for the EU is just to continue to run down the clock and let the political chaos that May leaves in her wake filter through the UK body politic. The EU knows well enough to never interrupt an enemy while they're making a mistake.

    You think things are febrile and desperate now, with 9 months until the cliff edge? Just imagine how things are going to be with six months, or three months to go.

    All the EU needs to do is wait.

    Any hope that the EU is going to suddenly take pity on May in her infinite stupidity is, I suspect, very wishful thinking.
    We shouldn't rule out the possibility that May knows what she's doing and her aim is No Brexit and to conduct an ERG-ectomy on the Tory party.
    In which case the odds of UKIP overtaking the Tories at the subsequent general election would shorten considerably given 70% of current Tory voters voted Leave. Which also confirms why she would be replaced as leader if she tried
    Don't expect her to come out and explain what she's doing...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212
    surby said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    What is the balance in the Tory MP electorate?

    I see the guess is that Tory MPs voted 176 remain, 141 leave, so I'll take that as a start point for putting a finger in the air:

    Voted remain / Chequers sceptic / arder now - 90
    of whom, social liberals - 20
    social conservatives - 70

    Does that sound anywhere near the mark?

    Isn't it a bit simpler than that?
    Want to leave 100%... - 40
    Want to remain 100%... - 40
    Want to keep their jobs so will watch the polls.... - 237
    Is there any reason to think more than 13 want to remain at any cost?
    It's probably not as high as 13. Some of those rebels would live with an EEA settlement. Four or five would fight on though.
    Behind rebellions there are always more sympathisers. If
    They may be sympathisers but they're not 100% at any cost ones. Nor is anyone saying its 13/317.

    It's more like

    Remain 100% at any cost - 13
    Want their jobs - 244
    Leave 100% at any cost - 60

    .... If one did stand, Greening would be my likely guess.


    But if it's not Hammond, then the ability to pitch soft to these 120 MPs, without being too overt, may be a benefit and deliver one of the candidates to the members.

    If MPs are looking to their own prospects, which do they fear more - the howls of betrayal or the howls as the voters face the reality of hard Brexit?



    408 out of 650 seats voted Leave, most MPs know their constituents backed Brexit in fact more represent Leave seats as a percentage than the 52% who voted Leave in the popular vote across the UK
    This argument applies more to Tories than Labour. For example, just because a constituency voted Leave [ i.e. more than 50% ], it does not mean 50% of Labour voters voted Leave. Also, as we saw, all Leave voters do not vote Tory or against Labour. Remember in 2017, Tories got 42% and UKIP 3%. So , at least, 7% voted for Labour [ probably more since LD vote hardly budged and SNP vote actually fell ]
    Leave voters mainly voted Labpu in 2017 as Corbyn promised to leave the single market and end free movement
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited July 2018

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Dead cat thrown on to table.

    https://twitter.com/labourlewis/status/1019963478357004292

    Classy whataboutery stuff from Clive Lewis.

    Yes, although that is a careless tweet from Javid in fairness, depending on what the person he was replying to said.
    Who knows, they've deleted their account.
    This is the tweet:

    https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1019901376300797952
    Utterly disgusting.
    Javid is entirely right to refute the holocaust denier but he then goes on to incorrectly imply Corbyn is one too - that's the outrageous part imo.
    Corbyn has been friends with and encouraged holocaust deniers and antisemites for decades.
    Corbyn has welcome holocaust deniers and antisemites back into the party.
    Corbyn is changing the definition of antisemitism within Labour from that of the international standard set by the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance.
    Corbyn is taking no action against his supporters that are holocaust deniers and antisemites.
    Corbyn is taking action against one of his own MPs who is a Jew who lost relatives in the Holocaust herself for raising concerns.

    But yes Corbyn is spotless.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:


    The theory someone pronounced this morning was in September as EU heads of government finally put pressure onthe commission to dial it back a notch. Doesn't seem hugely likely to me though.

    I just don't see why. To me the best option for the EU is just to continue to run down the clock and let the political chaos that May leaves in her wake filter through the UK body politic. The EU knows well enough to never interrupt an enemy while they're making a mistake.

    You think things are febrile and desperate now, with 9 months until the cliff edge? Just imagine how things are going to be with six months, or three months to go.

    All the EU needs to do is wait.

    Any hope that the EU is going to suddenly take pity on May in her infinite stupidity is, I suspect, very wishful thinking.
    We shouldn't rule out the possibility that May knows what she's doing and her aim is No Brexit and to conduct an ERG-ectomy on the Tory party.
    In which case the odds of UKIP overtaking the Tories at the subsequent general election would shorten considerably given 70% of current Tory voters voted Leave. Which also confirms why she would be replaced as leader if she tried
    Mrs May is a greater respecter of democracy than Mr Glenn appears to be.
    Indeed Mr Glenn needs to realise unless say Chuka Umunna becomes PM there is no chance of us even staying in the single market let alone reversing Brexit
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,754
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:


    The theory someone pronounced this morning was in September as EU heads of government finally put pressure onthe commission to dial it back a notch. Doesn't seem hugely likely to me though.

    I just don't see why. To me the best option for the EU is just to continue to run down the clock and let the political chaos that May leaves in her wake filter through the UK body politic. The EU knows well enough to never interrupt an enemy while they're making a mistake.

    You think things are febrile and desperate now, with 9 months until the cliff edge? Just imagine how things are going to be with six months, or three months to go.

    All the EU needs to do is wait.

    Any hope that the EU is going to suddenly take pity on May in her infinite stupidity is, I suspect, very wishful thinking.
    We shouldn't rule out the possibility that May knows what she's doing and her aim is No Brexit and to conduct an ERG-ectomy on the Tory party.
    In which case the odds of UKIP overtaking the Tories at the subsequent general election would shorten considerably given 70% of current Tory voters voted Leave. Which also confirms why she would be replaced as leader if she tried
    Mrs May is a greater respecter of democracy than Mr Glenn appears to be.
    Indeed Mr Glenn needs to realise unless say Chuka Umunna becomes PM there is no chance of us even staying in the single market let alone reversing Brexit
    Let's wait and see how these figures look after the government has sent out No Deal preparation notices.

    image
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Interesting take on 'No Deal' from Simon Jenkins. "... crashing out would not mean hard Brexit, but rather remain in all but name."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/19/no-deal-brexit-britain-eu-wto-march

    I've been thinking about this, and my conclusion is much the same. There would simply be no alternative than to keep everything unchanged for an extended transition period, a sort of Brexit purgatory while everyone works out what to do next. In the case of the UK at least, that could take years.
    Indeed. I confess it hadn't dawned on me until I read Jenkins' article but it does seem likely. I wonder how the ERG would react if crashing out ⇔ remain in all but name?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,692
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:


    The theory someone pronounced this morning was in September as EU heads of government finally put pressure onthe commission to dial it back a notch. Doesn't seem hugely likely to me though.

    I just don't see why. To me the best option for the EU is just to continue to run down the clock and let the political chaos that May leaves in her wake filter through the UK body politic. The EU knows well enough to never interrupt an enemy while they're making a mistake.

    You think things are febrile and desperate now, with 9 months until the cliff edge? Just imagine how things are going to be with six months, or three months to go.

    All the EU needs to do is wait.

    Any hope that the EU is going to suddenly take pity on May in her infinite stupidity is, I suspect, very wishful thinking.
    We shouldn't rule out the possibility that May knows what she's doing and her aim is No Brexit and to conduct an ERG-ectomy on the Tory party.
    In which case the odds of UKIP overtaking the Tories at the subsequent general election would shorten considerably given 70% of current Tory voters voted Leave. Which also confirms why she would be replaced as leader if she tried
    Mrs May is a greater respecter of democracy than Mr Glenn appears to be.
    Indeed Mr Glenn needs to realise unless say Chuka Umunna becomes PM there is no chance of us even staying in the single market let alone reversing Brexit
    ie there is no chance
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Dead cat thrown on to table.

    https://twitter.com/labourlewis/status/1019963478357004292

    Classy whataboutery stuff from Clive Lewis.

    Yes, although that is a careless tweet from Javid in fairness, depending on what the person he was replying to said.
    Who knows, they've deleted their account.
    This is the tweet:

    https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1019901376300797952
    Utterly disgusting.
    Javid is entirely right to refute the holocaust denier but he then goes on to incorrectly imply Corbyn is one too - that's the outrageous part imo.
    Corbyn has been friends with and encouraged holocaust deniers and antisemites for decades.
    Corbyn has welcome holocaust deniers and antisemites back into the party.
    Corbyn is changing the definition of antisemitism within Labour from that of the international standard set by the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance.
    Corbyn is taking no action against his supporters that are holocaust deniers and antisemites.
    Corbyn is taking action against one of his own MPs who is a Jew who lost relatives in the Holocaust herself for raising concerns.

    But yes Corbyn is spotless.
    I don't say Corbyn is spotless; far from it - his attitude to Jews is shameful.

    But it would nice if our Home Secretary produced some evidence of Corbyn actually dening the holocaust before implying he's a holocaust denier.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:


    The theory someone pronounced this morning was in September as EU heads of government finally put pressure onthe commission to dial it back a notch. Doesn't seem hugely likely to me though.

    I just don't see why. To me the best option for the EU is just to continue to run down the clock and let the political chaos that May leaves in her wake filter through the UK body politic. The EU knows well enough to never interrupt an enemy while they're making a mistake.

    You think things are febrile and desperate now, with 9 months until the cliff edge? Just imagine how things are going to be with six months, or three months to go.

    All the EU needs to do is wait.

    Any hope that the EU is going to suddenly take pity on May in her infinite stupidity is, I suspect, very wishful thinking.
    We shouldn't rule out the possibility that May knows what she's doing and her aim is No Brexit and to conduct an ERG-ectomy on the Tory party.
    In which case the odds of UKIP overtaking the Tories at the subsequent general election would shorten considerably given 70% of current Tory voters voted Leave. Which also confirms why she would be replaced as leader if she tried
    Mrs May is a greater respecter of democracy than Mr Glenn appears to be.
    Indeed Mr Glenn needs to realise unless say Chuka Umunna becomes PM there is no chance of us even staying in the single market let alone reversing Brexit
    Let's wait and see how these figures look after the government has sent out No Deal preparation notices.

    image
    Leave and Remain tied on first preference, just 2 Leave options and only one Remain option puts Remain ahead
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,692

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Dead cat thrown on to table.

    https://twitter.com/labourlewis/status/1019963478357004292

    Classy whataboutery stuff from Clive Lewis.

    Yes, although that is a careless tweet from Javid in fairness, depending on what the person he was replying to said.
    Who knows, they've deleted their account.
    This is the tweet:

    https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1019901376300797952
    Utterly disgusting.
    Javid is entirely right to refute the holocaust denier but he then goes on to incorrectly imply Corbyn is one too - that's the outrageous part imo.
    Corbyn has been friends with and encouraged holocaust deniers and antisemites for decades.
    Corbyn has welcome holocaust deniers and antisemites back into the party.
    Corbyn is changing the definition of antisemitism within Labour from that of the international standard set by the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance.
    Corbyn is taking no action against his supporters that are holocaust deniers and antisemites.
    Corbyn is taking action against one of his own MPs who is a Jew who lost relatives in the Holocaust herself for raising concerns.

    But yes Corbyn is spotless.
    None of your points stand up to scrutiny

    Corbyn is not Anti Semitic Racist or a Holocaust denier no matter how loud you shout
This discussion has been closed.