politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BoJo moves to joint next CON leader favourite with Moggsy foll
Comments
-
-
How Boris can be favourite for anything other than the role of court jester beats me.
If he and JRM are the favourites, all this shows is that the Tories have given up on being a serious grown up political party.
Like the Assyrians of old, they may as well fold up their tents and disappear into the night.0 -
Your continued certainty and remarkable spread of knowledge on any given subject is exceptional.HYUFD said:
In reality though if the EU ever pushed the point Sweden would likely vote to leave the EU rather than adopt the Euro and join EFTA instead, quite possibly Poland tooJohn_M said:
Poland's accession treaty requires it to join the Eurozone. The EU is a rules based organisation, as many tell us. Only Denmark (and the erstwhile UK before it became a deserted wasteland) has/had an opt out.HYUFD said:
Poland another nation that will not be part of the Eurozone and a full Federal EUAndyJS said:"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
Poland, Kantar poll:
When should Poland join the Eurozone?
Never: 53%
In next 5 years: 21%
In next 6-10 years: 13%
In more than 10 years: 13%
Field work: 06/07/18-7/07/18
Sample size: 1,000"0 -
All of the other parties in Sweden have said they will refuse to work with the Sweden Democrats. Therefore, the most likely outcome is a grand coalition of Alliance + Social Democrats with the Sweden Democrats as the main opposition.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1019856939285733376
The EU will collapse to being a Franco-Spanish arrangement at this rate.0 -
Off the scale.TheScreamingEagles said:
The last lines:
"That said, the sheer, nay, utter joy and satisfaction to be derived from beholding great piles of dead U.S.-citizen tyrants is not one that will be missed if Trump does not soon do the necessary to save the republic. But if he fails, the citizenry must act to ensure that Hillary’s predictive words are proven correct. “If Trump wins,” she apparently said, “we will all hang.” "
US is heading steadily towards civil war. Discuss.0 -
408 out of 650 seats voted Leave, most MPs know their constituents backed Brexit in fact more represent Leave seats as a percentage than the 52% who voted Leave in the popular vote across the UKPro_Rata said:Philip_Thompson said:
They may be sympathisers but they're not 100% at any cost ones. Nor is anyone saying its 13/317.Pro_Rata said:
Behind rebellions there are always more sympathisers. IfMaxPB said:
It's probably not as high as 13. Some of those rebels would live with an EEA settlement. Four or five would fight on though.Philip_Thompson said:
Is there any reason to think more than 13 want to remain at any cost?ExiledInScotland said:
Isn't it a bit simpler than that?Pro_Rata said:What is the balance in the Tory MP electorate?
I see the guess is that Tory MPs voted 176 remain, 141 leave, so I'll take that as a start point for putting a finger in the air:
Voted remain / Chequers sceptic / softer now (Inc remain now, 2nd referendummers, EEAers) - 40 (of whom a dozen and up are active rebellers)
Voted remain / Chequers hopers / fall back softer - 80
Voted remain / Chequers hopers / fall back harder - 40
Voted remain / Chequers sceptic / harder now - 15
Voted Leave / Chequers sceptics / softer now - 5
Voted Leave / Chequers hopefuls / fall back softer - 15
Voted Leave / Chequers hopefuls / fall back harder - 30
Voted Leave / Chequers sceptics / harder now - 90
of whom, social liberals - 20
social conservatives - 70
Does that sound anywhere near the mark?
Want to leave 100%... - 40
Want to remain 100%... - 40
Want to keep their jobs so will watch the polls.... - 237
It's more like
Remain 100% at any cost - 13
Want their jobs - 244
Leave 100% at any cost - 60
I didn't frame my first group as at any cost remainers, because that group is not likely to put up one of their own in a leadership election, despite the low bar to entry. If one did stand, Greening would be my likely guess.
I'll accept the lower number by your definition, and yet argue my 40 soft Brexit minded Chequers sceptics, plus the 80 Chequers hopefuls are more relevant. Phil Hammond sits in one of these two groups, and they form his natural support base. It means he could go decently far in the MPs rounds, although 'the membership won't wear it' will come into play.
But if it's not Hammond, then the ability to pitch soft to these 120 MPs, without being too overt, may be a benefit and deliver one of the candidates to the members.
If MPs are looking to their own prospects, which do they fear more - the howls of betrayal or the howls as the voters face the reality of hard Brexit?0 -
There stories at weekend of a sudden spike in tory membership, which may be kippers joining to game the leadership election towards Mogg or Boris.Cyclefree said:How Boris can be favourite for anything other than the role of court jester beats me.
If he and JRM are the favourites, all this shows is that the Tories have given up on being a serious grown up political party.
Like the Assyrians of old, they may as well fold up their tents and disappear into the night.
Not heard anything since.
0 -
Polls in Sweden show overwhelming opposition to the Euro and in Poland a comfortable majority against the Euro. Indeed over a decade ago Swedes voted against the Euro in a referendummatt said:
Your continued certainty and remarkable spread of knowledge on any given subject is exceptional.HYUFD said:
In reality though if the EU ever pushed the point Sweden would likely vote to leave the EU rather than adopt the Euro and join EFTA instead, quite possibly Poland tooJohn_M said:
Poland's accession treaty requires it to join the Eurozone. The EU is a rules based organisation, as many tell us. Only Denmark (and the erstwhile UK before it became a deserted wasteland) has/had an opt out.HYUFD said:
Poland another nation that will not be part of the Eurozone and a full Federal EUAndyJS said:"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
Poland, Kantar poll:
When should Poland join the Eurozone?
Never: 53%
In next 5 years: 21%
In next 6-10 years: 13%
In more than 10 years: 13%
Field work: 06/07/18-7/07/18
Sample size: 1,000"0 -
I fear Mrs May's going to need a new Chief Whip.Scott_P said:0 -
The ticket price for that was absolutely crazy. Surprised they got 8000.AndyJS said:O/T
"An Evening With Sam Harris, Jordan Peterson & Douglas Murray was billed as the Woodstock of live speaking and debate. Held at the O2 arena, which holds a capacity of 20,000, the Spectator claimed 8,000 people were in attendance. The audience was predominately white, male and relatively young."
https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/sam-harris-jordan-peterson-douglas-murray-o2-20180 -
This argument applies more to Tories than Labour. For example, just because a constituency voted Leave [ i.e. more than 50% ], it does not mean 50% of Labour voters voted Leave. Also, as we saw, all Leave voters do not vote Tory or against Labour. Remember in 2017, Tories got 42% and UKIP 3%. So , at least, 7% voted for Labour [ probably more since LD vote hardly budged and SNP vote actually fell ]HYUFD said:
408 out of 650 seats voted Leave, most MPs know their constituents backed Brexit in fact more represent Leave seats as a percentage than the 52% who voted Leave in the popular vote across the UKPro_Rata said:Philip_Thompson said:
They may be sympathisers but they're not 100% at any cost ones. Nor is anyone saying its 13/317.Pro_Rata said:
Behind rebellions there are always more sympathisers. IfMaxPB said:
It's probably not as high as 13. Some of those rebels would live with an EEA settlement. Four or five would fight on though.Philip_Thompson said:
Is there any reason to think more than 13 want to remain at any cost?ExiledInScotland said:
Isn't it a bit simpler than that?Pro_Rata said:What is the balance in the Tory MP electorate?
I see the guess is that Tory MPs voted 176 remain, 141 leave, so I'll take that as a start point for putting a finger in the air:
Voted remain / Chequers sceptic / softer now (Inc remain now, 2nd referendummers, EEAers) - 40 (of whom a dozen and up are active rebellers)
Voted remain / Chequers hopers / fall back softer - 80
Voted remain / Chequers hopers / fall back harder - 40
Voted remain / Chequers sceptic / harder now - 15
Voted Leave / Chequers sceptics / softer now - 5
Voted Leave / Chequers hopefuls / fall back softer - 15
Voted Leave / Chequers hopefuls / fall back harder - 30
Voted Leave / Chequers sceptics / harder now - 90
of whom, social liberals - 20
social conservatives - 70
Does that sound anywhere near the mark?
Want to leave 100%... - 40
Want to remain 100%... - 40
Want to keep their jobs so will watch the polls.... - 237
It's more like
Remain 100% at any cost - 13
Want their jobs - 244
Leave 100% at any cost - 60
.... If one did stand, Greening would be my likely guess.
But if it's not Hammond, then the ability to pitch soft to these 120 MPs, without being too overt, may be a benefit and deliver one of the candidates to the members.
If MPs are looking to their own prospects, which do they fear more - the howls of betrayal or the howls as the voters face the reality of hard Brexit?0 -
It was reported as "hundreds" and one needs to have been a Tory member for over a year to vote in a leadership ballot. It's much more difficult to game a Tory leadership ballot than it is the Labour one where all candidates are presented to the members and every vote counts the same, whether a £3 sign up from the day before or a 10 year member or a long serving MP.rottenborough said:
There stories at weekend of a sudden spike in tory membership, which may be kippers joining to game the leadership election towards Mogg or Boris.Cyclefree said:How Boris can be favourite for anything other than the role of court jester beats me.
If he and JRM are the favourites, all this shows is that the Tories have given up on being a serious grown up political party.
Like the Assyrians of old, they may as well fold up their tents and disappear into the night.
Not heard anything since.
It would be very, very tough for the ERG to get its chosen candidate to the final two, let alone winning the ballot.0 -
Mogg and Johnson are both great lays.MaxPB said:
It was reported as "hundreds" and one needs to have been a Tory member for over a year to vote in a leadership ballot. It's much more difficult to game a Tory leadership ballot than it is the Labour one where all candidates are presented to the members and every vote counts the same, whether a £3 sign up from the day before or a 10 year member or a long serving MP.rottenborough said:
There stories at weekend of a sudden spike in tory membership, which may be kippers joining to game the leadership election towards Mogg or Boris.Cyclefree said:How Boris can be favourite for anything other than the role of court jester beats ame.
If he and JRM are the favourites, all this shows is that the Tories have given up on being a serious grown up political party.
Like the Assyrians of old, they may as well fold up their tents and disappear into the night.
Not heard anything since.
It would be very, very tough for the ERG to get its chosen candidate to the final two, let alone winning the ballot.0 -
Andrea Leadsom said it was a mistake in the HoC this morning.TheScreamingEagles said:I fear Mrs May's going to need a new Chief Whip.
0 -
May I ask if a old poster has returned to PB who had the same photo on his Twitter account and on here ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I fear Mrs May's going to need a new Chief Whip.Scott_P said:0 -
I'm loving the stories about Walter Harrison that I've read today.TheScreamingEagles said:
I fear Mrs May's going to need a new Chief Whip.Scott_P said:0 -
What a scheming nasty party the Tories have become !Scott_P said:0 -
I think I grasp the general thrust of your argument. Fudge abounds. However, the EU will function best (for certain values of 'best') if it has a single currency. At some point, the political considerations in favour of enforcing member states' treaty obligations will kick in. It might not be in my lifetime, but...brendan16 said:
Sweden is also supposed to join the Eurozone - it was an EU member for six years before the Euro was introduced and 18 years since the Euro began it still hasn't joined. If they don't enforce this requirement on Sweden why would they do so on Poland?John_M said:
Poland's accession treaty requires it to join the Eurozone. The EU is a rules based organisation, as many tell us. Only Denmark (and the erstwhile UK before it became a deserted wasteland) has/had an opt out.HYUFD said:
Poland another nation that will not be part of the Eurozone and a full Federal EUAndyJS said:"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
Poland, Kantar poll:
When should Poland join the Eurozone?
Never: 53%
In next 5 years: 21%
In next 6-10 years: 13%
In more than 10 years: 13%
Field work: 06/07/18-7/07/18
Sample size: 1,000"
The EU picks and chooses what obligations it follows - and I expect the ECB has enough problems with managing existing members like Italy and Greece without forcing others to join.0 -
Which will of course only make the far right stronger as they win the election yet are denied power.GarethoftheVale2 said:
All of the other parties in Sweden have said they will refuse to work with the Sweden Democrats. Therefore, the most likely outcome is a grand coalition of Alliance + Social Democrats with the Sweden Democrats as the main opposition.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1019856939285733376
The EU will collapse to being a Franco-Spanish arrangement at this rate.0 -
I can understand the concern.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, one immigrant’s WhatsApp messages to me yesterday:
I saw this on the BBC and thought you should see it:
Boris Johnson: It is not too late to save Brexit - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44871629
Should I find another nation?
Yes or no?
It's less than one year
Still have to know if I can stay here
How I can stay here
And if I want to leave if I can come back
It's revolting
And if I will be fully covered in terms of health care
Your country is becoming a joke not even the crappiest Italian government from the war would be able create such a massive uncertainty
But -
- health insurance is available; if he went to work is some other non-EU country he would be required to get health insurance so this is not some unprecedented evil only perpetrated by the Brits, assuming that arrangements change.
- his country's current government is currently leaving men, women and children at sea for days without provisions or care, is turning a blind eye to attacks on strangers who are not white Italians and is proposing to have a list of certain types of strangers in order to deport them.
In the competition for crappy governments, it is not obvious to me that Italy has fallen as far behind as he seems to assume.0 -
Where Tory members are concerned, they cease being serious whenever Europe comes into play. Tory MPs will however make sure that neither of these two gets anywhere near the membership. Whilst members might, in years past, have been able to pressure some MPs to back Johnson based on his popular appeal, his conduct and performance in high office now provides them with the ammunition they need to tell the members to get lost.Cyclefree said:How Boris can be favourite for anything other than the role of court jester beats me.
If he and JRM are the favourites, all this shows is that the Tories have given up on being a serious grown up political party.
Like the Assyrians of old, they may as well fold up their tents and disappear into the night.0 -
-
It is a good job this is a betting site as otherwise I'm not sure if they should be flattered or sue.IanB2 said:
Mogg and Johnson are both great lays.MaxPB said:
It was reported as "hundreds" and one needs to have been a Tory member for over a year to vote in a leadership ballot. It's much more difficult to game a Tory leadership ballot than it is the Labour one where all candidates are presented to the members and every vote counts the same, whether a £3 sign up from the day before or a 10 year member or a long serving MP.rottenborough said:
There stories at weekend of a sudden spike in tory membership, which may be kippers joining to game the leadership election towards Mogg or Boris.Cyclefree said:How Boris can be favourite for anything other than the role of court jester beats ame.
If he and JRM are the favourites, all this shows is that the Tories have given up on being a serious grown up political party.
Like the Assyrians of old, they may as well fold up their tents and disappear into the night.
Not heard anything since.
It would be very, very tough for the ERG to get its chosen candidate to the final two, let alone winning the ballot.0 -
Sweden and Poland are not in the same boat. Sweden maintains that joining the ERM II (a requirement for euro adoption) is voluntary but and has chosen to remain outside pending public approval by a referendum thereby avoiding the question.brendan16 said:
Sweden is also supposed to join the Eurozone - it was an EU member for six years before the Euro was introduced and 18 years since the Euro began it still hasn't joined. If they don't enforce this requirement on Sweden why would they do so on Poland?John_M said:
Poland's accession treaty requires it to join the Eurozone. The EU is a rules based organisation, as many tell us. Only Denmark (and the erstwhile UK before it became a deserted wasteland) has/had an opt out.HYUFD said:
Poland another nation that will not be part of the Eurozone and a full Federal EUAndyJS said:"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
Poland, Kantar poll:
When should Poland join the Eurozone?
Never: 53%
In next 5 years: 21%
In next 6-10 years: 13%
In more than 10 years: 13%
Field work: 06/07/18-7/07/18
Sample size: 1,000"
The EU picks and chooses what obligations it follows - and I expect the ECB has enough problems with managing existing members like Italy and Greece without forcing others to join.
Poland , I believe, are in the same situation as the Czech Republic.0 -
0
-
-
I did not know winning 25% makes you a winner. That's the problem with FPTP. Luckily, Sweden doesn't follow that c**p system.Elliot said:
Which will of course only make the far right stronger as they win the election yet are denied power.GarethoftheVale2 said:
All of the other parties in Sweden have said they will refuse to work with the Sweden Democrats. Therefore, the most likely outcome is a grand coalition of Alliance + Social Democrats with the Sweden Democrats as the main opposition.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1019856939285733376
The EU will collapse to being a Franco-Spanish arrangement at this rate.0 -
Team Sky looking good again. Whatever they have for breakfast, I wouldn't mind getting some.0
-
The Euro joining rule is vague enough that the conditions are effectively decided by the nation concerned, with no serious attempt at enforcement.brendan16 said:
Sweden is also supposed to join the Eurozone - it was an EU member for six years before the Euro was introduced and 18 years since the Euro began it still hasn't joined. If they don't enforce this requirement on Sweden why would they do so on Poland?John_M said:
Poland's accession treaty requires it to join the Eurozone. The EU is a rules based organisation, as many tell us. Only Denmark (and the erstwhile UK before it became a deserted wasteland) has/had an opt out.HYUFD said:
Poland another nation that will not be part of the Eurozone and a full Federal EUAndyJS said:"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
Poland, Kantar poll:
When should Poland join the Eurozone?
Never: 53%
In next 5 years: 21%
In next 6-10 years: 13%
In more than 10 years: 13%
Field work: 06/07/18-7/07/18
Sample size: 1,000"
The EU picks and chooses what obligations it follows - and I expect the ECB has enough problems with managing existing members like Italy and Greece without forcing others to join.
The rise of Nationalist Populist parties in the EU is not being driven by anti EU sentiment, which is quite modest by UK standards, but rather by non EU migration and asylum seekers. Indeed in this Tpmmy Robinsons mob has a lot in common with them, being centered on anti Muslim sentiment rather than anything EU related.0 -
So convenient. How long did it take to come up with this excuse ? Why was it that he broke the "pairing" only on the close votes but not the others ?Scott_P said:0 -
There's so many stories about the tricks he pulled.Sean_F said:
I'm loving the stories about Walter Harrison that I've read today.TheScreamingEagles said:
I fear Mrs May's going to need a new Chief Whip.Scott_P said:
He regularly used to get a Tory MP, who liked his drink, pissed as a fart, so he'd miss votes.
He arranged for Tory MPs who had a keen interests in military matters to attend a top NATO event in Brussels then scheduled a key vote the moment they left the country.
During some votes he put out of order signs on the lifts/stairs or make a mess on them and get the cleaning staff to clean them up so as to delay Tory MPs.
He even put out of order signs on the toilets for similar reasons.
And my favourite of them all, even better than the wigs and disguises, he made two Tory MPs miss a vote when they were just outside Parliament waiting for a division to be called and he told a policeman that he thought those two chaps, who he had never seen before, were either cottaging or soliciting.
So the policeman detained them long enough for them to miss the vote.0 -
Reports that they are not admitting bodies of those drowned at sea.Cyclefree said:
I can understand the concern.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, one immigrant’s WhatsApp messages to me yesterday:
I saw this on the BBC and thought you should see it:
Boris Johnson: It is not too late to save Brexit - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44871629
Should I find another nation?
Yes or no?
It's less than one year
Still have to know if I can stay here
How I can stay here
And if I want to leave if I can come back
It's revolting
And if I will be fully covered in terms of health care
Your country is becoming a joke not even the crappiest Italian government from the war would be able create such a massive uncertainty
But -
- health insurance is available; if he went to work is some other non-EU country he would be required to get health insurance so this is not some unprecedented evil only perpetrated by the Brits, assuming that arrangements change.
- his country's current government is currently leaving men, women and children at sea for days without provisions or care, is turning a blind eye to attacks on strangers who are not white Italians and is proposing to have a list of certain types of strangers in order to deport them.
In the competition for crappy governments, it is not obvious to me that Italy has fallen as far behind as he seems to assume.
On a less morality driven level, about to reject CETA, so what hope a UK trade deal or A50 extension?0 -
Huh?Tykejohnno said:
May I ask if a old poster has returned to PB who had the same photo on his Twitter account and on here ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I fear Mrs May's going to need a new Chief Whip.Scott_P said:0 -
An increase of a hundred in the Tory party is big news since it might cover the number of dying Tory members in the week.MaxPB said:
It was reported as "hundreds" and one needs to have been a Tory member for over a year to vote in a leadership ballot. It's much more difficult to game a Tory leadership ballot than it is the Labour one where all candidates are presented to the members and every vote counts the same, whether a £3 sign up from the day before or a 10 year member or a long serving MP.rottenborough said:
There stories at weekend of a sudden spike in tory membership, which may be kippers joining to game the leadership election towards Mogg or Boris.Cyclefree said:How Boris can be favourite for anything other than the role of court jester beats me.
If he and JRM are the favourites, all this shows is that the Tories have given up on being a serious grown up political party.
Like the Assyrians of old, they may as well fold up their tents and disappear into the night.
Not heard anything since.
It would be very, very tough for the ERG to get its chosen candidate to the final two, let alone winning the ballot.0 -
Unless Labour get in and their activists carry out mass incinerations, of course.surby said:
An increase of a hundred in the Tory party is big news since it might cover the number of dying Tory members in the week.MaxPB said:
It was reported as "hundreds" and one needs to have been a Tory member for over a year to vote in a leadership ballot. It's much more difficult to game a Tory leadership ballot than it is the Labour one where all candidates are presented to the members and every vote counts the same, whether a £3 sign up from the day before or a 10 year member or a long serving MP.rottenborough said:
There stories at weekend of a sudden spike in tory membership, which may be kippers joining to game the leadership election towards Mogg or Boris.Cyclefree said:How Boris can be favourite for anything other than the role of court jester beats me.
If he and JRM are the favourites, all this shows is that the Tories have given up on being a serious grown up political party.
Like the Assyrians of old, they may as well fold up their tents and disappear into the night.
Not heard anything since.
It would be very, very tough for the ERG to get its chosen candidate to the final two, let alone winning the ballot.0 -
I accept all those points. The current Italian government is appalling.Cyclefree said:
I can understand the concern.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, one immigrant’s WhatsApp messages to me yesterday:
I saw this on the BBC and thought you should see it:
Boris Johnson: It is not too late to save Brexit - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44871629
Should I find another nation?
Yes or no?
It's less than one year
Still have to know if I can stay here
How I can stay here
And if I want to leave if I can come back
It's revolting
And if I will be fully covered in terms of health care
Your country is becoming a joke not even the crappiest Italian government from the war would be able create such a massive uncertainty
But -
- health insurance is available; if he went to work is some other non-EU country he would be required to get health insurance so this is not some unprecedented evil only perpetrated by the Brits, assuming that arrangements change.
- his country's current government is currently leaving men, women and children at sea for days without provisions or care, is turning a blind eye to attacks on strangers who are not white Italians and is proposing to have a list of certain types of strangers in order to deport them.
In the competition for crappy governments, it is not obvious to me that Italy has fallen as far behind as he seems to assume.
I simply relay the thoughts of one immigrant. The distress and unhappiness of immigrants seems to be being massively underestimated by most round these parts.0 -
No criticism of the great leader is allowed....ydoethur said:
Unless Labour get in and their activists carry out mass incinerations, of course.surby said:
An increase of a hundred in the Tory party is big news since it might cover the number of dying Tory members in the week.MaxPB said:
It was reported as "hundreds" and one needs to have been a Tory member for over a year to vote in a leadership ballot. It's much more difficult to game a Tory leadership ballot than it is the Labour one where all candidates are presented to the members and every vote counts the same, whether a £3 sign up from the day before or a 10 year member or a long serving MP.rottenborough said:
There stories at weekend of a sudden spike in tory membership, which may be kippers joining to game the leadership election towards Mogg or Boris.Cyclefree said:How Boris can be favourite for anything other than the role of court jester beats me.
If he and JRM are the favourites, all this shows is that the Tories have given up on being a serious grown up political party.
Like the Assyrians of old, they may as well fold up their tents and disappear into the night.
Not heard anything since.
It would be very, very tough for the ERG to get its chosen candidate to the final two, let alone winning the ballot.0 -
40 years ago, I can't believe pairs would have been in place for a vote like that.TheScreamingEagles said:
I fear Mrs May's going to need a new Chief Whip.Scott_P said:
I'm glad common sense is (showing signs of) prevailing in the case of maternity leave - not least given the contrasting numbers of women of child-bearing age in the Commons then and now - and would also be glad if cancer-riven MPs and the like aren't being dragged from their beds.
But given the importance, I'm surprised to see anyone else being given a pass..0 -
Not by me it isn't.AlastairMeeks said:
I accept all those points. The current Italian government is appalling.Cyclefree said:
I can understand the concern.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, one immigrant’s WhatsApp messages to me yesterday:
I saw this on the BBC and thought you should see it:
Boris Johnson: It is not too late to save Brexit - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44871629
Should I find another nation?
Yes or no?
It's less than one year
Still have to know if I can stay here
How I can stay here
And if I want to leave if I can come back
It's revolting
And if I will be fully covered in terms of health care
Your country is becoming a joke not even the crappiest Italian government from the war would be able create such a massive uncertainty
But -
- health insurance is available; if he went to work is some other non-EU country he would be required to get health insurance so this is not some unprecedented evil only perpetrated by the Brits, assuming that arrangements change.
- his country's current government is currently leaving men, women and children at sea for days without provisions or care, is turning a blind eye to attacks on strangers who are not white Italians and is proposing to have a list of certain types of strangers in order to deport them.
In the competition for crappy governments, it is not obvious to me that Italy has fallen as far behind as he seems to assume.
I simply relay the thoughts of one immigrant. The distress and unhappiness of immigrants seems to be being massively underestimated by most round these parts.0 -
They combust when you point this out?FrancisUrquhart said:
No criticism of the great leader is allowed....ydoethur said:
Unless Labour get in and their activists carry out mass incinerations, of course.surby said:
An increase of a hundred in the Tory party is big news since it might cover the number of dying Tory members in the week.MaxPB said:
It was reported as "hundreds" and one needs to have been a Tory member for over a year to vote in a leadership ballot. It's much more difficult to game a Tory leadership ballot than it is the Labour one where all candidates are presented to the members and every vote counts the same, whether a £3 sign up from the day before or a 10 year member or a long serving MP.rottenborough said:
There stories at weekend of a sudden spike in tory membership, which may be kippers joining to game the leadership election towards Mogg or Boris.Cyclefree said:How Boris can be favourite for anything other than the role of court jester beats me.
If he and JRM are the favourites, all this shows is that the Tories have given up on being a serious grown up political party.
Like the Assyrians of old, they may as well fold up their tents and disappear into the night.
Not heard anything since.
It would be very, very tough for the ERG to get its chosen candidate to the final two, let alone winning the ballot.0 -
0
-
Foxy said:
The Euro joining rule is vague enough that the conditions are effectively decided by the nation concerned, with no serious attempt at enforcement.brendan16 said:
Sweden is also supposed to join the Eurozone - it was an EU member for six years before the Euro was introduced and 18 years since the Euro began it still hasn't joined. If they don't enforce this requirement on Sweden why would they do so on Poland?John_M said:
Poland's accession treaty requires it to join the Eurozone. The EU is a rules based organisation, as many tell us. Only Denmark (and the erstwhile UK before it became a deserted wasteland) has/had an opt out.HYUFD said:
Poland another nation that will not be part of the Eurozone and a full Federal EUAndyJS said:"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
Poland, Kantar poll:
When should Poland join the Eurozone?
Never: 53%
In next 5 years: 21%
In next 6-10 years: 13%
In more than 10 years: 13%
Field work: 06/07/18-7/07/18
Sample size: 1,000"
The EU picks and chooses what obligations it follows - and I expect the ECB has enough problems with managing existing members like Italy and Greece without forcing others to join.
The rise of Nationalist Populist parties in the EU is not being driven by anti EU sentiment, which is quite modest by UK standards, but rather by non EU migration and asylum seekers. Indeed in this Tpmmy Robinsons mob has a lot in common with them, being centered on anti Muslim sentiment rather than anything EU related.
You don't think that the the facts that the EU has been utterly rubbish at managing non-EU migration and, specifically, migration from Muslim countries and that Germany broke the rules single-handedly then tried to rope in other EU countries to come to her aid have nothing to do with the rise in popularity of such parties?0 -
It's EU related in a sense because official EU policy is for each country to have a quota of migrants which is must take in and has previously threatened (though stepped back from, thankfully) punishment beatings and withdrawal of EU funding from those countries who won't accept any migrants.Foxy said:
The Euro joining rule is vague enough that the conditions are effectively decided by the nation concerned, with no serious attempt at enforcement.brendan16 said:
Sweden is also supposed to join the Eurozone - it was an EU member for six years before the Euro was introduced and 18 years since the Euro began it still hasn't joined. If they don't enforce this requirement on Sweden why would they do so on Poland?John_M said:
Poland's accession treaty requires it to join the Eurozone. The EU is a rules based organisation, as many tell us. Only Denmark (and the erstwhile UK before it became a deserted wasteland) has/had an opt out.HYUFD said:
Poland another nation that will not be part of the Eurozone and a full Federal EUAndyJS said:"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
Poland, Kantar poll:
When should Poland join the Eurozone?
Never: 53%
In next 5 years: 21%
In next 6-10 years: 13%
In more than 10 years: 13%
Field work: 06/07/18-7/07/18
Sample size: 1,000"
The EU picks and chooses what obligations it follows - and I expect the ECB has enough problems with managing existing members like Italy and Greece without forcing others to join.
The rise of Nationalist Populist parties in the EU is not being driven by anti EU sentiment, which is quite modest by UK standards, but rather by non EU migration and asylum seekers. Indeed in this Tpmmy Robinsons mob has a lot in common with them, being centered on anti Muslim sentiment rather than anything EU related.0 -
I believe this visa issue like aircrafts flying and Euratom will be sorted out because at the end of the day it is mainly paperwork.CarlottaVance said:I guess this would cut both ways....
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1019904914280108032?s=21
Visits upto 3 months stay will be given just like when we go to the US. But we have to pay to get a visa to Australia.0 -
Eh? Aussie visas are free. I've just applied for (and received) one. I didn't pay for it.surby said:
I believe this visa issue like aircrafts flying and Euratom will be sorted out because at the end of the day it is mainly paperwork.CarlottaVance said:I guess this would cut both ways....
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1019904914280108032?s=21
Visits upto 3 months stay will be given just like when we go to the US. But we have to pay to get a visa to Australia.0 -
Tim ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Huh?Tykejohnno said:
May I ask if a old poster has returned to PB who had the same photo on his Twitter account and on here ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I fear Mrs May's going to need a new Chief Whip.Scott_P said:0 -
One for the archives, methinks.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Visas for Brits. These are not usually difficult to obtain - at least based on my experience of the US and Canada - so it is probably more symbolic than anything else. If it's made expensive, time consuming, bureaucratic, it's another matter. At the margin this stuff can matter. As do perceptions - remember a few years ago when there were lots of stories in the press about how unwelcoming, rude and difficult US border officials were being.CarlottaVance said:I guess this would cut both ways....
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1019904914280108032?s=21
I was in Italy at the time of the referendum vote and in Amalfi the only thing people said to me was that they hoped this would not stop the English going there on holiday. Any drop in English visitors - even a slight one - will cause some damage. That may be a price Brussels is willing to pay. Whether Italians dependent on tourism in affected areas are equally willing to pay it is another matter.0 -
I'm not aware of that.Tykejohnno said:
Tim ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Huh?Tykejohnno said:
May I ask if a old poster has returned to PB who had the same photo on his Twitter account and on here ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I fear Mrs May's going to need a new Chief Whip.Scott_P said:0 -
When is the registration of existing EU nationals due or has it already begun?surby said:
I believe this visa issue like aircrafts flying and Euratom will be sorted out because at the end of the day it is mainly paperwork.CarlottaVance said:I guess this would cut both ways....
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1019904914280108032?s=21
Visits upto 3 months stay will be given just like when we go to the US. But we have to pay to get a visa to Australia.0 -
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/jul/19/may-will-have-to-revise-chequers-plan-in-face-of-tory-opposition-says-former-brexit-minister-politics-live
The paper quotes an unnamed MP who was involved as saying:
Julian told me I was needed and told me to come in and vote. Of course he knew I was paired.
I didn’t vote and honoured my pair, and he demanded to know why not afterwards.
It then appears Julian told the prime minister it was all an innocent mistake ...
What happened was unacceptable. We cannot behave like this.0 -
The chief whip ought to resign IMO. Disgraceful.surby said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/jul/19/may-will-have-to-revise-chequers-plan-in-face-of-tory-opposition-says-former-brexit-minister-politics-live
The paper quotes an unnamed MP who was involved as saying:
Julian told me I was needed and told me to come in and vote. Of course he knew I was paired.
I didn’t vote and honoured my pair, and he demanded to know why not afterwards.
It then appears Julian told the prime minister it was all an innocent mistake ...
What happened was unacceptable. We cannot behave like this.0 -
Certainly so, but Merkels statement happened after the migration crisis of 2015 was well underway, and the issue of non EU migration isnot an easy one to manage. Last weeks figures showed a net inflow of 185 000 non EU migrants in 2017 fto the UK for example. These are substantially muslim arrivals here, and grist to the EDL mill.Cyclefree said:Foxy said:
The Euro joining rule is vague enough that the conditions are effectively decided by the nation concerned, with no serious attempt at enforcement.brendan16 said:
Sweden is also supposed to join the Eurozone - it was an EU member for six years before the Euro was introduced and 18 years since the Euro began it still hasn't joined. If they don't enforce this requirement on Sweden why would they do so on Poland?John_M said:
Poland's accession treaty requires it to join the Eurozone. The EU is a rules based organisation, as many tell us. Only Denmark (and the erstwhile UK before it became a deserted wasteland) has/had an opt out.HYUFD said:
Poland another nation that will not be part of the Eurozone and a full Federal EUAndyJS said:"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
Poland, Kantar poll:
When should Poland join the Eurozone?
Never: 53%
In next 5 years: 21%
In next 6-10 years: 13%
In more than 10 years: 13%
Field work: 06/07/18-7/07/18
Sample size: 1,000"
The EU picks and chooses what obligations it follows - and I expect the ECB has enough problems with managing existing members like Italy and Greece without forcing others to join.
The rise of Nationalist Populist parties in the EU is not being driven by anti EU sentiment, which is quite modest by UK standards, but rather by non EU migration and asylum seekers. Indeed in this Tpmmy Robinsons mob has a lot in common with them, being centered on anti Muslim sentiment rather than anything EU related.
You don't think that the the facts that the EU has been utterly rubbish at managing non-EU migration and, specifically, migration from Muslim countries and that Germany broke the rules single-handedly then tried to rope in other EU countries to come to her aid have nothing to do with the rise in popularity of such parties?
You complain about the Italian policy on seaborne arrivals, but without suggesting an alternative. The EU approach of interventions ishaving effect by reducing the transits through Sudan and Niger, though like most Europeans we prefer this to be done at arms length.
Personally I think the move to an Australian type system is the only way, but we seemto be struggling to find a PNG to build anoffshore holding camp. I favour a complete withdrawal of the EU from the Refugee Convention pending a rewrite.
0 -
Is tim back ? Hurrah !TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm not aware of that.Tykejohnno said:
Tim ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Huh?Tykejohnno said:
May I ask if a old poster has returned to PB who had the same photo on his Twitter account and on here ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I fear Mrs May's going to need a new Chief Whip.Scott_P said:0 -
I’m the waiter not the chef. I’m not stockpiling Stilton just yet.John_M said:
One for the archives, methinks.AlastairMeeks said:
Still, it’s good to know that the extent of Leaver ambition has shrunk to keeping the supermarket shelves stocked with milk.0 -
+1MaxPB said:
Eh? Aussie visas are free. I've just applied for (and received) one. I didn't pay for it.surby said:
I believe this visa issue like aircrafts flying and Euratom will be sorted out because at the end of the day it is mainly paperwork.CarlottaVance said:I guess this would cut both ways....
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1019904914280108032?s=21
Visits upto 3 months stay will be given just like when we go to the US. But we have to pay to get a visa to Australia.0 -
Apparently Italy will be one of the few places we'll be able to get a cheese sarnie, so I think the tourist industry will be safe.Cyclefree said:
Visas for Brits. These are not usually difficult to obtain - at least based on my experience of the US and Canada - so it is probably more symbolic than anything else. If it's made expensive, time consuming, bureaucratic, it's another matter. At the margin this stuff can matter. As do perceptions - remember a few years ago when there were lots of stories in the press about how unwelcoming, rude and difficult US border officials were being.CarlottaVance said:I guess this would cut both ways....
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1019904914280108032?s=21
I was in Italy at the time of the referendum vote and in Amalfi the only thing people said to me was that they hoped this would not stop the English going there on holiday. Any drop in English visitors - even a slight one - will cause some damage. That may be a price Brussels is willing to pay. Whether Italians dependent on tourism in affected areas are equally willing to pay it is another matter.0 -
My ambitions are boundless Alastair. I'm off with Boris, to Infinity and beyond.AlastairMeeks said:
I’m the waiter not the chef. I’m not stockpiling Stilton just yet.John_M said:
One for the archives, methinks.AlastairMeeks said:
Still, it’s good to know that the extent of Leaver ambition has shrunk to keeping the supermarket shelves stocked with milk.0 -
I don't understand the purpose of breaking a pair to win a vote (short of a no confidence vote but then there is no pairing for that). As surely the Lords will just bounce back whatever would have gone through if the pairing was honoured in which case the Commons will vote again but this time a fake pairing won't work.surby said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/jul/19/may-will-have-to-revise-chequers-plan-in-face-of-tory-opposition-says-former-brexit-minister-politics-live
The paper quotes an unnamed MP who was involved as saying:
Julian told me I was needed and told me to come in and vote. Of course he knew I was paired.
I didn’t vote and honoured my pair, and he demanded to know why not afterwards.
It then appears Julian told the prime minister it was all an innocent mistake ...
What happened was unacceptable. We cannot behave like this.0 -
As an expression of taste, it's surely rather niche ?kjh said:
It is a good job this is a betting site as otherwise I'm not sure if they should be flattered or sue.IanB2 said:
Mogg and Johnson are both great lays.MaxPB said:
It was reported as "hundreds" and one needs to have been a Tory member for over a year to vote in a leadership ballot. It's much more difficult to game a Tory leadership ballot than it is the Labour one where all candidates are presented to the members and every vote counts the same, whether a £3 sign up from the day before or a 10 year member or a long serving MP.rottenborough said:
There stories at weekend of a sudden spike in tory membership, which may be kippers joining to game the leadership election towards Mogg or Boris.Cyclefree said:How Boris can be favourite for anything other than the role of court jester beats ame.
If he and JRM are the favourites, all this shows is that the Tories have given up on being a serious grown up political party.
Like the Assyrians of old, they may as well fold up their tents and disappear into the night.
Not heard anything since.
It would be very, very tough for the ERG to get its chosen candidate to the final two, let alone winning the ballot.0 -
£12 million for a 3rd choice goalkeeper....
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/football/transfer-news/leicester-city-agree-fee-liverpool-149277020 -
I have suggested alternatives - including the one you propose (re the Refugee Convention). Anyone seeking to arrive in Italy via sea should be returned to a North African port not brought into Europe since once they are here it is virtually impossible to return them, if they are not entitled to be here.Foxy said:
Certainly so, but Merkels statement happened after the migration crisis of 2015 was well underway, and the issue of non EU migration isnot an easy one to manage. Last weeks figures showed a net inflow of 185 000 non EU migrants in 2017 for example. These are substantially muslim arrivals here.Cyclefree said:Foxy said:
The Euro joining rule is vague enough that the conditions are effectively decided by the nation concerned, with no serious attempt at enforcement.brendan16 said:
Sweden is also supposed to join the Eurozone - it was an EU member for six years before the Euro was introduced and 18 years since the Euro began it still hasn't joined. If they don't enforce this requirement on Sweden why would they do so on Poland?John_M said:
The EU picks and chooses what obligations it follows - and I expect the ECB has enough problems with managing existing members like Italy and Greece without forcing others to join.
The rise of Nationalist Populist parties in the EU is not being driven by anti EU sentiment, which is quite modest by UK standards, but rather by non EU migration and asylum seekers. Indeed in this Tpmmy Robinsons mob has a lot in common with them, being centered on anti Muslim sentiment rather than anything EU related.
You don't think that the the facts that the EU has been utterly rubbish at managing non-EU migration and, specifically, migration from Muslim countries and that Germany broke the rules single-handedly then tried to rope in other EU countries to come to her aid have nothing to do with the rise in popularity of such parties?
You complain about the Italian policy on seaborne arrivals, but without suggesting an alternative. The EU approach of interventions ishaving effect by reducing the transits through Sudan and Niger, though like most Europeans we prefer this to be done at arms length.
Personally I think the move to an Australian type system is the only way, but we seemto be struggling to find a PNG to build anoffshore holding camp. I favour a complete withdrawal of the EU from the Refugee Convention pending a rewrite.
It is not an easy topic to manage but the EU has not handled it at all well over the years and it is one reason why these parties have become more popular. It is also probably one of the key reasons for the Brexit vote.0 -
-
My mum always told me people in glass houses shouldn't throw stones...Scott_P said:twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1019931956639883266
0 -
Remind me, why can't MPs vote "by proxy" again?0
-
It sounds like an exaggeration to me. My milk is delivered by an old-fashioned milkman. Pretty sure he's not getting his milk from abroad. English butter is plentiful and lots of good English cheeses around. And yogurt is easy to make.AlastairMeeks said:
I’m the waiter not the chef. I’m not stockpiling Stilton just yet.John_M said:
One for the archives, methinks.AlastairMeeks said:
Still, it’s good to know that the extent of Leaver ambition has shrunk to keeping the supermarket shelves stocked with milk.
If we get to the stage that there are shortages of food, people unable to leave or enter Britain, no medicines, the lights going off etc, it will be a colossal - and incredibly stupid - failure by both the British government and the EU.
0 -
Most of us are hoping Elon Musk might assist Boris with that ambition.John_M said:
My ambitions are boundless Alastair. I'm off with Boris, to Infinity and beyond.AlastairMeeks said:
I’m the waiter not the chef. I’m not stockpiling Stilton just yet.John_M said:
One for the archives, methinks.AlastairMeeks said:
Still, it’s good to know that the extent of Leaver ambition has shrunk to keeping the supermarket shelves stocked with milk.0 -
The largest manufacturer of yoghurt in Europe, Muller, has an enormous factory in the UK that supplies not just the UK market, but exports across Europe, using UK milk.Cyclefree said:
It sounds like an exaggeration to me. My milk is delivered by an old-fashioned milkman. Pretty sure he's not getting his milk from abroad. English butter is plentiful and lots of good English cheeses around. And yogurt is easy to make.AlastairMeeks said:
I’m the waiter not the chef. I’m not stockpiling Stilton just yet.John_M said:
One for the archives, methinks.AlastairMeeks said:
Still, it’s good to know that the extent of Leaver ambition has shrunk to keeping the supermarket shelves stocked with milk.0 -
-
Proxy voting for the (genuinely) infirm and those on maternity leave etc would be more sensible than pairing.Harris_Tweed said:
40 years ago, I can't believe pairs would have been in place for a vote like that.TheScreamingEagles said:
I fear Mrs May's going to need a new Chief Whip.Scott_P said:
I'm glad common sense is (showing signs of) prevailing in the case of maternity leave - not least given the contrasting numbers of women of child-bearing age in the Commons then and now - and would also be glad if cancer-riven MPs and the like aren't being dragged from their beds.
But given the importance, I'm surprised to see anyone else being given a pass..
Always strikes me off that if someone is paired then that would surely reflect their voting record e.g. if someone checks a site like TheyWorkForYou.0 -
The dispute over redistribution of non EU migrants is essentially 3 way, between the countries where they arrive (Italy, Malta, Greece), those that they want to go to (North Europe) and those that want nothing to do with them (East Europe). It is an issue that does need a common European solution. Reducing the inflow is a large part of this, and arrivals are substantially down this year, but there is more to do.MaxPB said:
It's EU related in a sense because official EU policy is for each country to have a quota of migrants which is must take in and has previously threatened (though stepped back from, thankfully) punishment beatings and withdrawal of EU funding from those countries who won't accept any migrants.Foxy said:
The Euro joining rule is vague enough that the conditions are effectively decided by the nation concerned, with no serious attempt at enforcement.brendan16 said:
Sweden is also supposed to join the Eurozone - it was an EU member for six years before the Euro was introduced and 18 years since the Euro began it still hasn't joined. If they don't enforce this requirement on Sweden why would they do so on Poland?John_M said:
Poland's accession treaty requires it to join the Eurozone. The EU is a rules based organisation, as many tell us. Only Denmark (and the erstwhile UK before it became a deserted wasteland) has/had an opt out.HYUFD said:
Poland another nation that will not be part of the Eurozone and a full Federal EUAndyJS said:"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
Poland, Kantar poll:
When should Poland join the Eurozone?
Never: 53%
In next 5 years: 21%
In next 6-10 years: 13%
In more than 10 years: 13%
Field work: 06/07/18-7/07/18
Sample size: 1,000"
The EU picks and chooses what obligations it follows - and I expect the ECB has enough problems with managing existing members like Italy and Greece without forcing others to join.
The rise of Nationalist Populist parties in the EU is not being driven by anti EU sentiment, which is quite modest by UK standards, but rather by non EU migration and asylum seekers. Indeed in this Tpmmy Robinsons mob has a lot in common with them, being centered on anti Muslim sentiment rather than anything EU related.
EU or no EU, this is not an issue that will go away. It is a feature of where the First world borders the Third, like the US Mexico border. The arc of conflict through Yemen, Horn of Africa and across the Sahel is an issue for all of us, not least because the collapse of Islamic State in Syria has made this arc the new focus of Islamist conflict.
0 -
-
In terms of political implications, I think the breakdown of a pairing arrangement would normally be a 'meh'. BUT - the addition of an MP on maternity leave being lied to, I think that may give it some traction in the media.Scott_P said:0 -
In a year's time:John_M said:
My ambitions are boundless Alastair. I'm off with Boris, to Infinity and beyond.AlastairMeeks said:
I’m the waiter not the chef. I’m not stockpiling Stilton just yet.John_M said:
One for the archives, methinks.AlastairMeeks said:
Still, it’s good to know that the extent of Leaver ambition has shrunk to keeping the supermarket shelves stocked with milk.
"Look, just because a pack of Wensleydale is now £12 doesn't mean it's an occasional treat, so yeah it was scaremongering. Overall, inflation's only 2% when you factor in the house price crash as well."0 -
Officially it's a security measure to make sure it is the MP voting. They can't wear hats or coats in the division lobbies because MPs on cold days used to send their coachmen to vote!Danny565 said:Remind me, why can't MPs vote "by proxy" again?
Unofficially it's because otherwise the lazy buggers would be like MEPs and only ever turn up to claim allowances, if then.0 -
Surely the amount of Stilton, like Cheddar Cheese that we import is precisely 0 grams?AlastairMeeks said:
I’m the waiter not the chef. I’m not stockpiling Stilton just yet.John_M said:
One for the archives, methinks.AlastairMeeks said:
Still, it’s good to know that the extent of Leaver ambition has shrunk to keeping the supermarket shelves stocked with milk.0 -
-
Houses aren't included in CPI inflation so the government would have to switch back to RPI.Freggles said:
In a year's time:John_M said:
My ambitions are boundless Alastair. I'm off with Boris, to Infinity and beyond.AlastairMeeks said:
I’m the waiter not the chef. I’m not stockpiling Stilton just yet.John_M said:
One for the archives, methinks.AlastairMeeks said:
Still, it’s good to know that the extent of Leaver ambition has shrunk to keeping the supermarket shelves stocked with milk.
"Look, just because a pack of Wensleydale is now £12 doesn't mean it's an occasional treat, so yeah it was scaremongering. Overall, inflation's only 2% when you factor in the house price crash as well."0 -
The 'win at all costs' attitude tells us a bit about what it must be like to be at Westminster at the moment.Philip_Thompson said:
I don't understand the purpose of breaking a pair to win a vote (short of a no confidence vote but then there is no pairing for that). As surely the Lords will just bounce back whatever would have gone through if the pairing was honoured in which case the Commons will vote again but this time a fake pairing won't work.surby said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/jul/19/may-will-have-to-revise-chequers-plan-in-face-of-tory-opposition-says-former-brexit-minister-politics-live
The paper quotes an unnamed MP who was involved as saying:
Julian told me I was needed and told me to come in and vote. Of course he knew I was paired.
I didn’t vote and honoured my pair, and he demanded to know why not afterwards.
It then appears Julian told the prime minister it was all an innocent mistake ...
What happened was unacceptable. We cannot behave like this.
Of course it also applied to the Brexit campaign.0 -
That thought crossed my mind.Nigelb said:
As an expression of taste, it's surely rather niche ?kjh said:
It is a good job this is a betting site as otherwise I'm not sure if they should be flattered or sue.IanB2 said:
Mogg and Johnson are both great lays.MaxPB said:
It was reported as "hundreds" and one needs to have been a Tory member for over a year to vote in a leadership ballot. It's much more difficult to game a Tory leadership ballot than it is the Labour one where all candidates are presented to the members and every vote counts the same, whether a £3 sign up from the day before or a 10 year member or a long serving MP.rottenborough said:
There stories at weekend of a sudden spike in tory membership, which may be kippers joining to game the leadership election towards Mogg or Boris.Cyclefree said:How Boris can be favourite for anything other than the role of court jester beats ame.
If he and JRM are the favourites, all this shows is that the Tories have given up on being a serious grown up political party.
Like the Assyrians of old, they may as well fold up their tents and disappear into the night.
Not heard anything since.
It would be very, very tough for the ERG to get its chosen candidate to the final two, let alone winning the ballot.
0 -
Why would Wensleydale be subject to import tariffs?Freggles said:
In a year's time:John_M said:
My ambitions are boundless Alastair. I'm off with Boris, to Infinity and beyond.AlastairMeeks said:
I’m the waiter not the chef. I’m not stockpiling Stilton just yet.John_M said:
One for the archives, methinks.AlastairMeeks said:
Still, it’s good to know that the extent of Leaver ambition has shrunk to keeping the supermarket shelves stocked with milk.
"Look, just because a pack of Wensleydale is now £12 doesn't mean it's an occasional treat, so yeah it was scaremongering. Overall, inflation's only 2% when you factor in the house price crash as well."0 -
You have to remember that my generation were brought up being told we'd all die in a strategic nuclear exchange, or worse, survive a la 'Threads'. At this point, most of us are grateful that our kids only have one head.Freggles said:
In a year's time:John_M said:
My ambitions are boundless Alastair. I'm off with Boris, to Infinity and beyond.AlastairMeeks said:
I’m the waiter not the chef. I’m not stockpiling Stilton just yet.John_M said:
One for the archives, methinks.AlastairMeeks said:
Still, it’s good to know that the extent of Leaver ambition has shrunk to keeping the supermarket shelves stocked with milk.
"Look, just because a pack of Wensleydale is now £12 doesn't mean it's an occasional treat, so yeah it was scaremongering. Overall, inflation's only 2% when you factor in the house price crash as well."0 -
We're self sufficient in milk, 75% self sufficient in butter (and much of the balance is from New Zealand). Cheese is 55% but much of that will be luxury cheese e.g Brie, Roquefort.Cyclefree said:
It sounds like an exaggeration to me. My milk is delivered by an old-fashioned milkman. Pretty sure he's not getting his milk from abroad. English butter is plentiful and lots of good English cheeses around. And yogurt is easy to make.AlastairMeeks said:
I’m the waiter not the chef. I’m not stockpiling Stilton just yet.John_M said:
One for the archives, methinks.AlastairMeeks said:
Still, it’s good to know that the extent of Leaver ambition has shrunk to keeping the supermarket shelves stocked with milk.
If we get to the stage that there are shortages of food, people unable to leave or enter Britain, no medicines, the lights going off etc, it will be a colossal - and incredibly stupid - failure by both the British government and the EU.
The other point to make is a huge amount of theEU's dairy comes from Ireland, and both sides have faithfully promised no hard border there.
So this seems a bit of a red herring to me.0 -
The last time pairing broke down completely was the dying years of the Major government.logical_song said:
The 'win at all costs' attitude tells us a bit about what it must be like to be at Westminster at the moment.
Of course it also applied to the Brexit campaign.
History doesn't repeat but it does echo.0 -
Hard border with the Democratic People's Republic of Yorkshire.CarlottaVance said:
Why would Wensleydale be subject to import tariffs?0 -
That's to keep out the Lancastrians and the Southern softies.grabcocque said:
Hard border with the Democratic People's Republic of Yorkshire.CarlottaVance said:
Why would Wensleydale be subject to import tariffs?0 -
No - we import a lot of Cheddar from Ireland.Philip_Thompson said:
Surely the amount of Stilton, like Cheddar Cheese that we import is precisely 0 grams?AlastairMeeks said:
I’m the waiter not the chef. I’m not stockpiling Stilton just yet.John_M said:
One for the archives, methinks.AlastairMeeks said:
Still, it’s good to know that the extent of Leaver ambition has shrunk to keeping the supermarket shelves stocked with milk.
Edit - this paper from 2 years ago sets it out for those interested:
https://ahdb.org.uk/brexit/documents/Dairy_bitesize.pdf0 -
Not so Cheddar. Not protected and I have been told (in disgust) by a posh cheese shop that it is brought in, in large amounts. Also identical cheese, dyed red described as Red Leicester.Philip_Thompson said:
Surely the amount of Stilton, like Cheddar Cheese that we import is precisely 0 grams?AlastairMeeks said:
I’m the waiter not the chef. I’m not stockpiling Stilton just yet.John_M said:
One for the archives, methinks.AlastairMeeks said:
Still, it’s good to know that the extent of Leaver ambition has shrunk to keeping the supermarket shelves stocked with milk.0 -
JRM may not be a great lay, but with six kids we can assume he's a fairly consistent one.kjh said:
OwO0 -
Or even pilot him.AlastairMeeks said:
Most of us are hoping Elon Musk might assist Boris with that ambition.John_M said:
My ambitions are boundless Alastair. I'm off with Boris, to Infinity and beyond.AlastairMeeks said:
I’m the waiter not the chef. I’m not stockpiling Stilton just yet.John_M said:
One for the archives, methinks.AlastairMeeks said:
Still, it’s good to know that the extent of Leaver ambition has shrunk to keeping the supermarket shelves stocked with milk.0 -
Bad count example then. No Stilton though.ydoethur said:
No - we import a lot of Cheddar from Ireland.Philip_Thompson said:
Surely the amount of Stilton, like Cheddar Cheese that we import is precisely 0 grams?AlastairMeeks said:
I’m the waiter not the chef. I’m not stockpiling Stilton just yet.John_M said:
One for the archives, methinks.AlastairMeeks said:
Still, it’s good to know that the extent of Leaver ambition has shrunk to keeping the supermarket shelves stocked with milk.
Edit - this paper from 2 years ago sets it out for those interested:
https://ahdb.org.uk/brexit/documents/Dairy_bitesize.pdf0 -
This is entirely backwards. The optional step that Merkel took was to say that Germany would take refugees rather than sending them back to the EU country they entered Germany from, even though they weren't technically obliged to.Cyclefree said:
You don't think that the the facts that the EU has been utterly rubbish at managing non-EU migration and, specifically, migration from Muslim countries and that Germany broke the rules single-handedly then tried to rope in other EU countries to come to her aid have nothing to do with the rise in popularity of such parties?0 -
There was a period of aTheScreamingEagles said:
That's to keep out the Lancastrians and the Southern softies.grabcocque said:
Hard border with the Democratic People's Republic of Yorkshire.CarlottaVance said:
Why would Wensleydale be subject to import tariffs?couple of yearssome months around the early 1990s when the only creamery producing Wensleydale was in Lancashire.
http://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/640296.Wensleydale_and_Wallace___a_profitable_partnership/0 -
Yes, I think Kasper is moving on. I think Puel and the management believe him to be part of the players clique that has bedevilled recent managers at Leicester.FrancisUrquhart said:£12 million for a 3rd choice goalkeeper....
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/football/transfer-news/leicester-city-agree-fee-liverpool-14927702
We usually manage some sort of summer fiasco!0 -
Or that punters have got it wrong.Cyclefree said:How Boris can be favourite for anything other than the role of court jester beats me.
If he and JRM are the favourites, all this shows is that the Tories have given up on being a serious grown up political party.0
