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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another day goes by and still 48 CON MPs have not sent letters

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  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Speaking of coming to get people, the knives are out for the Labour Leavers who voted with the government today:
    https://twitter.com/owenjones84/status/1019282500978401280?s=21
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Out of interest would it actually be likely to be in a position to have a GE within 2 weeks of a VONC? I'm no GE expert but it doesn't seem like very long.

    Not be possible - a minimum of 25 working days - ie 5 weeks - between a Dissolution and Polling Day. In practice , likely to be at least 6 weeks.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Poll in Times
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,814
    rcs1000 said:

    To be fair, she actually wrote quite a good article on why we should Leave before she reversed course. IIRC, she didn't like the Turkey poster and felt Leave was playing to baser instincts.
    She said she defected over the bogus NHS pledge and threat to the economy.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/09/dr-sarah-wollaston-defects-vote-leave-remain-campaign
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    brendan16 said:

    That's not very parliamentary language - but shows she is spending more time in her constituency. She is talking more like a Barking and Dagenham local!
    “I’m sorry you feel like that.” Ugh. The worst kind of non-apology.

    I wonder what Labour’s other Jewish MPs will do.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    Ahh right, so your saying we shouldn't concentrate on the Lib Dems inadequacies because Labour are to blame for it....
    This might be a good time to repeat Andy_Cooke's GIF.
    Lib Dem trustfulness, even innocence, and Labour trickery and deceit. Yup, I think that`s about it. And Tory deceit as well, of course. Led by their new Chief Whip, as I understand it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,508
    Another day where the Left shoot at each other, whilst the nation is left ungoverned.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,508

    Out of interest would it actually be likely to be in a position to have a GE within 2 weeks of a VONC? I'm no GE expert but it doesn't seem like very long.

    I think they mean the vote to hold a GE would be two weeks later.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Speaking of coming to get people, the knives are out for the Labour Leavers who voted with the government today:
    https://twitter.com/owenjones84/status/1019282500978401280?s=21

    Elliot said:

    It was clearly fake support so she could win headlines of "Brexiteer sees the light".
    She was taken in by the claims of NHS megabucks and unicorns for a few weeks then did her research.

    Some people are still in that first phase
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,508
    Suspect it will be bad for May.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,492
    rcs1000 said:

    To be fair, she actually wrote quite a good article on why we should Leave before she reversed course. IIRC, she didn't like the Turkey poster and felt Leave was playing to baser instincts.
    She certainly has the zeal of a convert, now.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,492
    Jonathan said:

    Remained need to get serious or give up.
    12 is a big rebellion.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,661

    Speaking of coming to get people, the knives are out for the Labour Leavers who voted with the government today:
    https://twitter.com/owenjones84/status/1019282500978401280?s=21

    As you all know, I'm a Labour Leaver. But an opportunity to bring down a Tory government is far, far more important than dancing on pin heads over the minutiae on a Brexit deal that will probably never be enacted. These four got their priorities way wrong.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    As you all know, I'm a Labour Leaver. But an opportunity to bring down a Tory government is far, far more important than dancing on pin heads over the minutiae on a Brexit deal that will probably never be enacted. These four got their priorities way wrong.
    To be brutally honest, I think it’s more than that with those four. I think they don’t want Corbyn to be PM and are willingly to prop up May’s government in order to avoid that potential scenario.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,925

    I think they mean the vote to hold a GE would be two weeks later.
    Ah, I see, thanks.

    And thanks to everyone who explained about the dissolution process.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,508
    Can someone tell me why any of this needed to go through the HoC before being presented to the EU?

    They will tell us 'non' and we are back to square one.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Sean_F said:

    12 is a big rebellion.
    You get no prizes for coming close. Win, or you might as well not bother. Surely there are 4 abstentions out there.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    Can someone tell me why any of this needed to go through the HoC before being presented to the EU?

    They will tell us 'non' and we are back to square one.

    Exactly.

    We could have been facing a general election about whether we would be in the customs union, an unique customs union where we could negotiate our own trade deals or a facilitated customs partnership (or whatever the Customs union in all but name is which the Government is now proposing).

    At least this way we won't need to waste our time voting.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    As you all know, I'm a Labour Leaver. But an opportunity to bring down a Tory government is far, far more important than dancing on pin heads over the minutiae on a Brexit deal that will probably never be enacted. These four got their priorities way wrong.
    But it is a load of nonsense because there is no way the Government would fail to win a Vote of Confidence - unless the DUP withdraw their support.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,366

    He is not popular and has fought his constituency chair in the past. He was Plaid at one time and of course is in a highly marginal seat with a Corbynista fighting for it.

    TM will protect our main manufacturers and Airbus welcomed Chequers
    That's a man who looks older than his years.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited July 2018

    To be brutally honest, I think it’s more than that with those four. I think they don’t want Corbyn to be PM and are willingly to prop up May’s government in order to avoid that potential scenario.
    Apart from Mann they are also nearing the end of their time in Parliament - so they might as well vote with their gut than their party. You either stand or principle or you do not stand at all. And Labour's ever changing position on Brexit is hardly principled and arguably entirely cynical.

    If you voted for Hoey in Vauxhall expecting her to back remain more fool you.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    RobD said:

    Five votes against a customs union so far :D
    the golden rule of brexit: every attempt by remainers to thwart brexit only ensures a firmer harder brexit!

    Remainers seem stuck on stage 1 & 2 of the five stages of grief: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,674

    Can someone tell me why any of this needed to go through the HoC before being presented to the EU?

    They will tell us 'non' and we are back to square one.

    They need the trade and customs bills to go through to be even theoretically ready for Brexit.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Brandon Lewis has apologised to Jo Swinson. Sounds like it was a cock up by the Tory Whips.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,661
    What percentage don't lurk on PB?

    Actually, I find it depressing that 57% of voters DO use Facebook.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    justin124 said:

    Brandon Lewis has apologised to Jo Swinson. Sounds like it was a cock up by the Tory Whips.

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1019326263956267009
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,814
    This kind of coverage won't make it easier for Labour Brexiteers to continue to support the government in crunch votes going forwards:

    image
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,674
    justin124 said:

    Brandon Lewis has apologised to Jo Swinson. Sounds like it was a cock up by the Tory Whips.

    I'm not a cynic about politics but frankly I don't believe it. It's not credible that he forgot he was paired, voted in the two marginal votes and otherwise cheerfully broke the whip in every single vote. That's the unmistakable behaviour of someone who knows he's paired and breaks it when it's close.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,018
    BBC Europe correspondent just reported that the EU do want a deal as they cannot afford the job loses and are looking at easing the wording on the Irish border to achieve a deal

    They must have picked up the real possibility of a hard Brexit and it is focussing minds
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,635

    What percentage don't lurk on PB?

    Actually, I find it depressing that 57% of voters DO use Facebook.
    Wouldn't the remaining 57% include those that DON'T KNOW they use Facebook?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,635
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188
    kjohnw said:

    the golden rule of brexit: every attempt by remainers to thwart brexit only ensures a firmer harder brexit!

    Remainers seem stuck on stage 1 & 2 of the five stages of grief: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance
    I knew that someone else would quote the Brexit golden rule eventually :)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,661
    Scott_P said:
    It's coming home!

    We've definitely got a trend here. At bloody last.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Is that 10 point spread the biggest we’ve seen since the election?
  • LordOfReasonLordOfReason Posts: 457

    This kind of coverage won't make it easier for Labour Brexiteers to continue to support the government in crunch votes going forwards:

    image

    You are wrong. They maintain long time passion and belief in voting that way, at the same time pride themselves on being outspoken radical, left field independent minded MPs, that front page will only inspire them.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,814
    edited July 2018

    Is that 10 point spread the biggest we’ve seen since the election?
    No there have been a couple of Remain/Leave polls showing 55/45 but this is different as it is based on the Justine Greening AV referendum option. In this poll, the deal would be eliminated first.

    Round one is:

    Remain: 50%
    Deal: 17%
    No Deal: 33%
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,674
    Scott_P said:
    Interesting to see Labour pulling away despite no significant change in the UKIP vote. I don't think that's a surge of enthusiasm for Labour since we've not been particularly noticeable in the media for some time; rather it's people giving up on the Tories.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    We've pretty much been around 40% since the election although this is one of the higher scores since the post election honeymoon period (which went to us instead of the government) does seem close to something of a ceiling outside of an election period. Although that is quite a high and potentially election winning ceiling even if we can't improve on it much.

    New thread by the way.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited July 2018

    The Tory remainers are clearly not prepared to do anything that could jeapordise.

    Pity your Leave MPs voted to keep the Tories in power.
This discussion has been closed.