politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another day goes by and still 48 CON MPs have not sent letters
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By rule I don't mean binding rule, I mean it is known as Speaker Denison's Rule. That it is merely a convention is why i raised the point that he might not follow it - conventions do change. Erskine May notes that the 'decisions of successive speakers have not invariably been consistent' though it notes three principles that have emerged, namely to vote for further discussion where this is possible, decisions should not be taken except by a majority, and that casting vote on an amendment should leave the bill in its existing form.ydoethur said:
I don't think that's a rule, merely a convention. Melville was impeached in 1805 on the casting vote of a speaker.kle4 said:
That is the rule, but Bercow doesn't like tradition, would he do so?NickPalmer said:
The Speaker votes for the status quo, i.e. against the amendment.bigjohnowls said:305-303
If one moves back to Govt its a tie
What happens then????0 -
O'Mara never turns up, for one.Sean_F said:
If 20 - 25% of Labour voters support Leave, it's not surprising some Labour MP's abstain.MikeL said:
Yes - 12 Con rebels and 4 Lab rebels equals a Govt defeat if equal number of abstentions.justin124 said:The Government was also saved by Labour abstentions tonight. Perhaps pressure will be applied to them before 'ping pong' resumes in the Autumn.
Must have been approx 9 more Opposition abstentions than Con abstentions - that's a lot.0 -
Clearly can't trust those independents either...IanB2 said:
O'Mara never turns up, for one.Sean_F said:
If 20 - 25% of Labour voters support Leave, it's not surprising some Labour MP's abstain.MikeL said:
Yes - 12 Con rebels and 4 Lab rebels equals a Govt defeat if equal number of abstentions.justin124 said:The Government was also saved by Labour abstentions tonight. Perhaps pressure will be applied to them before 'ping pong' resumes in the Autumn.
Must have been approx 9 more Opposition abstentions than Con abstentions - that's a lot.0 -
She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.Big_G_NorthWales said:To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.
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Actually she is not going to deal with them. She is meeting each leader one on one throughout the SummerOchEye said:
She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.Big_G_NorthWales said:To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.
She is the elected leader of the UK and Barnier is below her pay grade0 -
The grade maybe, not the pay.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Actually she is not going to deal with them. She is meeting each leader one on one throughout the SummerOchEye said:
She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.Big_G_NorthWales said:To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.
She is the elected leader of the UK and Barnier is below her pay grade
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Just heard Trump's press conference on how brilliantly successful his European trip was and how much NATO has been strengthened by it.
Does anyone know what he's smoking and where I could get some?0 -
And there, in a nutshell, is the problem. The Commission, legally, is wholly irrelevant to these discussions. They are Heads of Government matters. But Juncker arrogated negotiations to himself at the start - on Selmayr's advice, apparently - and with a brief to inflict no deal or a punishment deal on Britain pour encourager les autres. And because they were afraid of quarrelling among themselves, the HoGs let him do it.OchEye said:
She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.Big_G_NorthWales said:To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.
And we are where we are. If only they had grown a collective spine and taken the opportunity to sack him.0 -
He'd be sorely tempted to put the boot into the government, if he got the chance.kle4 said:
That is the rule, but Bercow doesn't like tradition, would he do so?NickPalmer said:
The Speaker votes for the status quo, i.e. against the amendment.bigjohnowls said:305-303
If one moves back to Govt its a tie
What happens then????
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I like Cable, but after this he has to go.0
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In fairness to the Comission (not something you often here me say) they probably feel under siege, and this drives their unyielding stance.ydoethur said:
And there, in a nutshell, is the problem. The Commission, legally, is wholly irrelevant to these discussions. They are Heads of Government matters. But Juncker arrogated negotiations to himself at the start - on Selmayr's advice, apparently - and with a brief to inflict no deal or a punishment deal on Britain pour encourager les autres. And because they were afraid of quarrelling among themselves, the HoGs let him do it.OchEye said:
She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.Big_G_NorthWales said:To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.
And we are where we are. If only they had grown a collective spine and taken the opportunity to sack him.0 -
This is pretty brutal on Cable and Farron...
https://twitter.com/PeterStefanovi2/status/1019200796649455618
As for the Labour rebels who voted with the government I wish them a long happy retirement, soonish.0 -
Technically not, Barnier earns £213 000 a year compared to the PM's £143,462Big_G_NorthWales said:
Actually she is not going to deal with them. She is meeting each leader one on one throughout the SummerOchEye said:
She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.Big_G_NorthWales said:To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.
She is the elected leader of the UK and Barnier is below her pay grade
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4350480/eus-chief-brexit-negotiator-michel-barnier-earns-72k-more-than-uk-counterpart-david-davis/0 -
Don't get this nonsense from Tory sources. A GE vote in 2 weeks would have been won by the Government, unless a load of Moggsters decided Corbyn was better than May.
Or am I missing something?0 -
It is a fundamental of negotiating, that we do not get to choose the other side.ydoethur said:
And there, in a nutshell, is the problem. The Commission, legally, is wholly irrelevant to these discussions. They are Heads of Government matters. But Juncker arrogated negotiations to himself at the start - on Selmayr's advice, apparently - and with a brief to inflict no deal or a punishment deal on Britain pour encourager les autres. And because they were afraid of quarrelling among themselves, the HoGs let him do it.OchEye said:
She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.Big_G_NorthWales said:To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.
And we are where we are. If only they had grown a collective spine and taken the opportunity to sack him.
The EU have made it clear from the beginning, and with complete solidarity, that Barnier was their negotiating lead. It shouldn't be a surprise.0 -
Exactlyjustin124 said:
But that would only have been a day of theatre which the Government would have won anyway. At the end of the day the Opposition can always table a No Confidence Vote.bigjohnowls said:
Just spared us a VONCbigjohnowls said:John Mann, Frank Field, Kate Hoey and Graham Stringer
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The reason they are under siege is entirely due to their own failures, arrogance and complacency. They deserve no sympathy for panicking at a mess their uselessness and cronyism (to be charitable) has created.Sean_F said:
In fairness to the Comission (not something you often here me say) they probably feel under siege, and this drives their unyielding stance.ydoethur said:
And there, in a nutshell, is the problem. The Commission, legally, is wholly irrelevant to these discussions. They are Heads of Government matters. But Juncker arrogated negotiations to himself at the start - on Selmayr's advice, apparently - and with a brief to inflict no deal or a punishment deal on Britain pour encourager les autres. And because they were afraid of quarrelling among themselves, the HoGs let him do it.OchEye said:
She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.Big_G_NorthWales said:To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.
And we are where we are. If only they had grown a collective spine and taken the opportunity to sack him.0 -
Just shows how the EU overpays non elected technocratsHYUFD said:
Technically not, Barnier earns £213 000 a year compared to the PM's £143,462Big_G_NorthWales said:
Actually she is not going to deal with them. She is meeting each leader one on one throughout the SummerOchEye said:
She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.Big_G_NorthWales said:To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.
She is the elected leader of the UK and Barnier is below her pay grade
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4350480/eus-chief-brexit-negotiator-michel-barnier-earns-72k-more-than-uk-counterpart-david-davis/0 -
It is a sad indictment of the American healthcare system that there aren't institutions for people with this level of delusion.ydoethur said:Just heard Trump's press conference on how brilliantly successful his European trip was and how much NATO has been strengthened by it.
Does anyone know what he's smoking and where I could get some?0 -
Sir John Curtice on what voters make of Theresa May's deal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/17/betrayed-deserting-tories-ukip-polls-say-leave-voters-chequers/0 -
In other words he is doing their bidding and your diatribe against the Commission is wholly misplaced.ydoethur said:
And there, in a nutshell, is the problem. The Commission, legally, is wholly irrelevant to these discussions. They are Heads of Government matters. But Juncker arrogated negotiations to himself at the start - on Selmayr's advice, apparently - and with a brief to inflict no deal or a punishment deal on Britain pour encourager les autres. And because they were afraid of quarrelling among themselves, the HoGs let him do it.OchEye said:
She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.Big_G_NorthWales said:To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.
And we are where we are. If only they had grown a collective spine and taken the opportunity to sack him.0 -
It is called the presidency I believe...rottenborough said:
It is a sad indictment of the American healthcare system that there aren't institutions for people with this level of delusion.ydoethur said:Just heard Trump's press conference on how brilliantly successful his European trip was and how much NATO has been strengthened by it.
Does anyone know what he's smoking and where I could get some?0 -
Cable will go but not until Swinson is ready and she's just given birth. With Lamb not being prepated to tone down his euroscepticism ( by Lib Dem standards ) and Moran and Hobhouse not being ready she really is the only choice.Jonathan said:I like Cable, but after this he has to go.
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The only MP I could imagine refusing to support the government on a vote of confidence is Sarah Wollaston.rottenborough said:Don't get this nonsense from Tory sources. A GE vote in 2 weeks would have been won by the Government, unless a load of Moggsters decided Corbyn was better than May.
Or am I missing something?0 -
To be fair, Barnier is earning his crust much more than our hapless and hopeless ministers.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Just shows how the EU overpays non elected technocratsHYUFD said:
Technically not, Barnier earns £213 000 a year compared to the PM's £143,462Big_G_NorthWales said:
Actually she is not going to deal with them. She is meeting each leader one on one throughout the SummerOchEye said:
She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.Big_G_NorthWales said:To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.
She is the elected leader of the UK and Barnier is below her pay grade
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4350480/eus-chief-brexit-negotiator-michel-barnier-earns-72k-more-than-uk-counterpart-david-davis/
David Davis managed 4 hours of Brexit negotiations this year, before his flounce.0 -
Indeed, of course MEPs also earnt more than MPs, £84,000 plus travel expenses and office costs and daily expenses allowance compared to MPs £74,000 so it was a good gravy train to be on if you could get on itBig_G_NorthWales said:
Just shows how the EU overpays non elected technocratsHYUFD said:
Technically not, Barnier earns £213 000 a year compared to the PM's £143,462Big_G_NorthWales said:
Actually she is not going to deal with them. She is meeting each leader one on one throughout the SummerOchEye said:
She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.Big_G_NorthWales said:To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.
She is the elected leader of the UK and Barnier is below her pay grade
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4350480/eus-chief-brexit-negotiator-michel-barnier-earns-72k-more-than-uk-counterpart-david-davis/0 -
I hope that we do not get another stitch up coronation. I have my doubts about Swinson and would like her tested in a contested hustings.Yellow_Submarine said:
Cable will go but not until Swinson is ready and she's just given birth. With Lamb not being prepated to tone down his euroscepticism ( by Lib Dem standards ) and Moran and Hobhouse not being ready she really is the only choice.Jonathan said:I like Cable, but after this he has to go.
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Will the Tory Ukip switchers come back with the harder amendmentsGIN1138 said:Sir John Curtice on what voters make of Theresa May's deal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/17/betrayed-deserting-tories-ukip-polls-say-leave-voters-chequers/0 -
Foxy said:
I hope that we do not get another stitch up coronation. I have my doubts about Swinson and would like her tested in a contested hustings.Yellow_Submarine said:
Cable will go but not until Swinson is ready and she's just given birth. With Lamb not being prepated to tone down his euroscepticism ( by Lib Dem standards ) and Moran and Hobhouse not being ready she really is the only choice.Jonathan said:I like Cable, but after this he has to go.
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Saying non and repeating it ad nauseam is not earning anything - indeed may cost 40 billionFoxy said:
To be fair, Barnier is earning his crust much more than our hapless and hopeless ministers.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Just shows how the EU overpays non elected technocratsHYUFD said:
Technically not, Barnier earns £213 000 a year compared to the PM's £143,462Big_G_NorthWales said:
Actually she is not going to deal with them. She is meeting each leader one on one throughout the SummerOchEye said:
She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.Big_G_NorthWales said:To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.
She is the elected leader of the UK and Barnier is below her pay grade
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4350480/eus-chief-brexit-negotiator-michel-barnier-earns-72k-more-than-uk-counterpart-david-davis/
David Davis managed 4 hours of Brexit negotiations this year, before his flounce.0 -
Didn’t we ever get to the bottom of how someone who was supposedly a Brexiteer managed to do such a handbrake turn in such a short space of time?Sean_F said:
The only MP I could imagine refusing to support the government on a vote of confidence is Sarah Wollaston.rottenborough said:Don't get this nonsense from Tory sources. A GE vote in 2 weeks would have been won by the Government, unless a load of Moggsters decided Corbyn was better than May.
Or am I missing something?0 -
The only party that will Brexit is the conservative party, but I hope without too much economic damagePulpstar said:
Will the Tory Ukip switchers come back with the harder amendmentsGIN1138 said:Sir John Curtice on what voters make of Theresa May's deal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/17/betrayed-deserting-tories-ukip-polls-say-leave-voters-chequers/0 -
Yes, I've not seen much sign of the HoGs quarrelling with either Juncker or Barnier. The HoGs are scattered over the Continent with their individual fish to fry and have no interest in getting into haggling over fine points of customs arrangements.Foxy said:
It is a fundamental of negotiating, that we do not get to choose the other side.ydoethur said:
And there, in a nutshell, is the problem. The Commission, legally, is wholly irrelevant to these discussions. They are Heads of Government matters. But Juncker arrogated negotiations to himself at the start - on Selmayr's advice, apparently - and with a brief to inflict no deal or a punishment deal on Britain pour encourager les autres. And because they were afraid of quarrelling among themselves, the HoGs let him do it.OchEye said:
She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.Big_G_NorthWales said:To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.
And we are where we are. If only they had grown a collective spine and taken the opportunity to sack him.
The EU have made it clear from the beginning, and with complete solidarity, that Barnier was their negotiating lead. It shouldn't be a surprise.
Equally, I don't see much sign of the Commission wanting a punishment deal. They want a deal that doesn't change the architecture of the EU but, subject to that, allows continued good trading relations. It's the Brits who keep arguing for magic creativity, in the few moments that we can spare from arguing among ourselves.0 -
The govt would have won a VONC easily, the only danger of that ever being lost is if the Irish sea vote had been lost.0
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It was always going to be No Deal Brexit, or on EU terms. We just get to choose between.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Saying non and repeating it ad nauseam is not earning anything - indeed may cost 40 billionFoxy said:
To be fair, Barnier is earning his crust much more than our hapless and hopeless ministers.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Just shows how the EU overpays non elected technocratsHYUFD said:
Technically not, Barnier earns £213 000 a year compared to the PM's £143,462Big_G_NorthWales said:
Actually she is not going to deal with them. She is meeting each leader one on one throughout the SummerOchEye said:
She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.Big_G_NorthWales said:To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.
She is the elected leader of the UK and Barnier is below her pay grade
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4350480/eus-chief-brexit-negotiator-michel-barnier-earns-72k-more-than-uk-counterpart-david-davis/
David Davis managed 4 hours of Brexit negotiations this year, before his flounce.0 -
My interpretation is that the whips were saying that were the bill to be lost, there would be a VONC in order to trigger a general election.Pulpstar said:The govt would have won a VONC easily, the only danger of that ever being lost is if the Irish sea vote had been lost.
Rebels get deselected, Corbyn might get in. Good motivation to do the right thing.0 -
Hello all!
The way things are going, it's surely going to be a binary decision between the hardest of hard Brexits and remaining in the EU (through an infinite transition period).
The sane choice is obvious!0 -
GIN1138 said:
Sir John Curtice on what voters make of Theresa May's deal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/17/betrayed-deserting-tories-ukip-polls-say-leave-voters-chequers/
Bot infested comments abound BTL there. Most unable to form coherent sentences in modern, colloquial British English.GIN1138 said:Sir John Curtice on what voters make of Theresa May's deal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/17/betrayed-deserting-tories-ukip-polls-say-leave-voters-chequers/0 -
Ooh the govt votes against themselves ?RoyalBlue said:
My interpretation is that the whips were saying that were the bill to be lost, there would be a VONC in order to trigger a general election.Pulpstar said:The govt would have won a VONC easily, the only danger of that ever being lost is if the Irish sea vote had been lost.
Rebels get deselected, Corbyn might get in. Good motivation to do the right thing.0 -
Would never have happened. There would be no time for deselection.RoyalBlue said:
My interpretation is that the whips were saying that were the bill to be lost, there would be a VONC in order to trigger a general election.Pulpstar said:The govt would have won a VONC easily, the only danger of that ever being lost is if the Irish sea vote had been lost.
Rebels get deselected, Corbyn might get in. Good motivation to do the right thing.0 -
A VONC in which the government would whip its own MPs to no confidence itself?RoyalBlue said:
My interpretation is that the whips were saying that were the bill to be lost, there would be a VONC in order to trigger a general election.Pulpstar said:The govt would have won a VONC easily, the only danger of that ever being lost is if the Irish sea vote had been lost.
Rebels get deselected, Corbyn might get in. Good motivation to do the right thing.
Because the numbers aren't there otherwise.
I suppose we are not beyond that ludicrous position.0 -
She's been extremely skillful at getting everyone to forget how ' coalicous ' she was. She was a huge Clegg cheer leader in government and what means for the future needs testing. Though a lot of that is having lost in 2015 then regained her seat in 2017. It demonstrates resilience and political skill and sense of already having had your punishment beating. My sense is she's the obvious bridge between the party's establishment wings and the need for complete reinvention. The Jodie Whittaker choice if you like. Though if she played it right Hobhouse's German accent could be an interesting foil for many of the more remainiac new members. I haven't been a party member since 2012 and have no lans to rejoin. But from an external perspective the party seems in a dire state and is still fundamentally in denial about it's political system failue in coalition. But you can only elect leader those willing and qualified to stand. Not much choice.Foxy said:
I hope that we do not get another stitch up coronation. I have my doubts about Swinson and would like her tested in a contested hustings.Yellow_Submarine said:
Cable will go but not until Swinson is ready and she's just given birth. With Lamb not being prepated to tone down his euroscepticism ( by Lib Dem standards ) and Moran and Hobhouse not being ready she really is the only choice.Jonathan said:I like Cable, but after this he has to go.
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If you want the Airbus flag to keep flying at Broughton and for Welsh sheep farmers to stay in business, amongst many other reasons to retain the customs union, you might congratulate Gutto Bebb for being realistic and sensible.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have made my views on him to his constituency chairman. He is my mpjustin124 said:
Gutto Bebb voted for Customs Union Ammendment - but not the earlier one lost by Government.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That will upset Faisal IslamHYUFD said:Field, Hoey, Hopkins, Mann and Stringer all voted with the Government to leave the Customs Union
https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/10192823778504499200 -
LOL of all days to send out this tweet:
https://twitter.com/johnmannmp/status/1019119049127747584?s=210 -
"Surely" is doing a lot of work there. The possibility of a deal being done remains non-zero, even if its probability is lower now.murali_s said:Hello all!
The way things are going, it's surely going to be a binary decision between the hardest of hard Brexits and remaining in the EU (through an infinite transition period).
The sane choice is obvious!
Also, I don't think "infinite transition period" is an option - if the UK stays permanently within the EU it will be as a member, not a state in eternal transition, and that is going to take either a referendum or a general election to sort out.0 -
So who had "Trump to 180 on his statement during the Pugin press conference"? Everyone? Everyone had it? Oh.
https://www.twitter.com/ddale8/status/10192924701469777930 -
Personally I'm hoping Laws or Thorpe makes a comeback0
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I beg to differ.not_on_fire said:
Would never have happened. There would be no time for deselection.RoyalBlue said:
My interpretation is that the whips were saying that were the bill to be lost, there would be a VONC in order to trigger a general election.Pulpstar said:The govt would have won a VONC easily, the only danger of that ever being lost is if the Irish sea vote had been lost.
Rebels get deselected, Corbyn might get in. Good motivation to do the right thing.0 -
He's also being a sexist ****. Swinson was ' paired ' as she's on Maternity leave.The_Apocalypse said:LOL of all days to send out this tweet:
https://twitter.com/johnmannmp/status/1019119049127747584?s=210 -
Staying in the customs union is the least of Airbus's worries.FF43 said:
If you want the Airbus flag to keep flying at Broughton and for Welsh sheep farmers to stay in business, amongst many other reasons to retain the customs union, you might congratulate Gutto Bebb for being realistic and sensible.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have made my views on him to his constituency chairman. He is my mpjustin124 said:
Gutto Bebb voted for Customs Union Ammendment - but not the earlier one lost by Government.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That will upset Faisal IslamHYUFD said:Field, Hoey, Hopkins, Mann and Stringer all voted with the Government to leave the Customs Union
https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/10192823778504499200 -
Corbyn actually believes in Brexit unlike May.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The only party that will Brexit is the conservative party, but I hope without too much economic damagePulpstar said:
Will the Tory Ukip switchers come back with the harder amendmentsGIN1138 said:Sir John Curtice on what voters make of Theresa May's deal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/17/betrayed-deserting-tories-ukip-polls-say-leave-voters-chequers/0 -
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Yeh, me too. Many (most? All?) Tory selections happened after the election was calledRoyalBlue said:
I beg to differ.not_on_fire said:
Would never have happened. There would be no time for deselection.RoyalBlue said:
My interpretation is that the whips were saying that were the bill to be lost, there would be a VONC in order to trigger a general election.Pulpstar said:The govt would have won a VONC easily, the only danger of that ever being lost is if the Irish sea vote had been lost.
Rebels get deselected, Corbyn might get in. Good motivation to do the right thing.0 -
I really don’t know what to make of the Lib Dem’s after this.Yellow_Submarine said:
Cable will go but not until Swinson is ready and she's just given birth. With Lamb not being prepated to tone down his euroscepticism ( by Lib Dem standards ) and Moran and Hobhouse not being ready she really is the only choice.Jonathan said:I like Cable, but after this he has to go.
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That's true.GIN1138 said:
Yep you are correctHYUFD said:
Sone polls actually had the Tories under IDS ahead of Blair's Labour, there was no poll I recall with Kennedy's LDs ahead of IDS' ToriesStark_Dawning said:My recollection with IDS is that the polls were within an inch of the Tories slipping behind the Lib Dems into third place, so the runes were easier to read and the Quiet Man had to go. It's not completely obvious that Theresa will poll worse than any replacement.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
So was Stark Dawning's statement as well.
The run of 8 polls between 21/09/03 and 05/10/03 could certainly be characterised as having the Tories within an inch of sliding into third place - including one three-way on 31 each.
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I think it's a bit late for Jeremy Thorpe's comebackPulpstar said:Personally I'm hoping Laws or Thorpe makes a comeback
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Yes, apologies - my mistake.RoyalBlue said:
How does this work?MikeL said:
Yes - 12 Con rebels and 4 Lab rebels equals a Govt defeat if equal number of abstentions.justin124 said:The Government was also saved by Labour abstentions tonight. Perhaps pressure will be applied to them before 'ping pong' resumes in the Autumn.
Must have been approx 9 more Opposition abstentions than Con abstentions - that's a lot.
Excluding Sinn Fein and speakers the Government has a majority of 13. That means 7 Tory rebels can defeat the government. If 5 Labour MPs vote with the government, 12 rebels becomes the magic number.
You only need 2 more Lab abstentions for the Government to win. I’d be surprised if Caroline Flint would ever vote for any of these amendments that neuter Brexit. You only need 1 more.0 -
What exactly are the Libdems playing at? I mean as a brexiteer I'm happy they didn't vote again.....but why? Surely they would've known it was going to be a close vote?0
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My guess is it's a genuine cock up rooted in not having come to terms with their reduced status. The " usual channels " are open to the three biggest Commons parties ( and de facto the DUP due to the C + S agreement ). Folk like Cable ( who wasn't in the Commons '15 to '17 ) just won't be used to having to sit their all night not having the faintest idea whether they are needed or not. It'll be an adjustment but this entirely deserved bad press will help with it.Jonathan said:
I really don’t know what to make of the Lib Dem’s after this.Yellow_Submarine said:
Cable will go but not until Swinson is ready and she's just given birth. With Lamb not being prepated to tone down his euroscepticism ( by Lib Dem standards ) and Moran and Hobhouse not being ready she really is the only choice.Jonathan said:I like Cable, but after this he has to go.
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No one had thought of her as a Brexiteer, until she suddenly said she was.numbertwelve said:
Didn’t we ever get to the bottom of how someone who was supposedly a Brexiteer managed to do such a handbrake turn in such a short space of time?Sean_F said:
The only MP I could imagine refusing to support the government on a vote of confidence is Sarah Wollaston.rottenborough said:Don't get this nonsense from Tory sources. A GE vote in 2 weeks would have been won by the Government, unless a load of Moggsters decided Corbyn was better than May.
Or am I missing something?
I guess that supporting Brexit was just a momentary aberration.0 -
Didn't she vote for an EU referendum, before it was official Tory policy?Sean_F said:
No one had thought of her as a Brexiteer, until she suddenly said she was.numbertwelve said:
Didn’t we ever get to the bottom of how someone who was supposedly a Brexiteer managed to do such a handbrake turn in such a short space of time?Sean_F said:
The only MP I could imagine refusing to support the government on a vote of confidence is Sarah Wollaston.rottenborough said:Don't get this nonsense from Tory sources. A GE vote in 2 weeks would have been won by the Government, unless a load of Moggsters decided Corbyn was better than May.
Or am I missing something?
I guess that supporting Brexit was just a momentary aberration.0 -
Paired with Lewis who then went on to voteYellow_Submarine said:
He's also being a sexist ****. Swinson was ' paired ' as she's on Maternity leave.The_Apocalypse said:LOL of all days to send out this tweet:
https://twitter.com/johnmannmp/status/1019119049127747584?s=210 -
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1019306804390526976TheScreamingEagles said:Oh dear, this is not cricket.
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I was going to point this out earlier but thought that the thread had moved on. What's interesting to me is that IDS actually had a pretty decent spell in the polls (this is putting it somewhat charitably as the degree of his personal responsibility for this is contestable) followed by a slump, and that very little patience was extended during the slump and little or no credit granted for the previous successful period, even though it was in recent memory.Andy_Cooke said:
That's true.GIN1138 said:
Yep you are correctHYUFD said:
Sone polls actually had the Tories under IDS ahead of Blair's Labour, there was no poll I recall with Kennedy's LDs ahead of IDS' ToriesStark_Dawning said:My recollection with IDS is that the polls were within an inch of the Tories slipping behind the Lib Dems into third place, so the runes were easier to read and the Quiet Man had to go. It's not completely obvious that Theresa will poll worse than any replacement.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
So was Stark Dawning's statement as well.
The run of 8 polls between 21/09/03 and 05/10/03 could certainly be characterised as having the Tories within an inch of sliding into third place - including one three-way on 31 each.
Itchy trigger fingers are A Thing. Perhaps being in government rather than opposition makes them slightly more reticent, but a prolonged polling slump will not be good news for May and "prolonged" here might be measured in weeks rather than months.0 -
Cricket is dirtier than politics.TheScreamingEagles said:Oh dear, this is not cricket.
https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/10192989493442191370 -
Cricket is exceeded only by golf in terms of its tedium.Sean_F said:
Cricket is dirtier than politics.TheScreamingEagles said:Oh dear, this is not cricket.
https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/10192989493442191370 -
That’s fair, but perhaps a little generous. Given their position on the EU, you’d have thought they would have voted even if it wasn’t close.Yellow_Submarine said:
My guess is it's a genuine cock up rooted in not having come to terms with their reduced status. The " usual channels " are open to the three biggest Commons parties ( and de facto the DUP due to the C + S agreement ). Folk like Cable ( who wasn't in the Commons '15 to '17 ) just won't be used to having to sit their all night not having the faintest idea whether they are needed or not. It'll be an adjustment but this entirely deserved bad press will help with it.Jonathan said:
I really don’t know what to make of the Lib Dem’s after this.Yellow_Submarine said:
Cable will go but not until Swinson is ready and she's just given birth. With Lamb not being prepated to tone down his euroscepticism ( by Lib Dem standards ) and Moran and Hobhouse not being ready she really is the only choice.Jonathan said:I like Cable, but after this he has to go.
If I knew it was close, they really have no excuse.
If you can be bothered to turn up for your principal policy, you shouldn’t bother at all.0 -
Wait until political spot betting takes off.Sean_F said:
Cricket is dirtier than politics.TheScreamingEagles said:Oh dear, this is not cricket.
https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/10192989493442191370 -
Jeremy Corbyn has been told he’s “a fucking anti-semite” by a veteran Jewish MP after the party upheld controversial new guidelines on tackling anti-semitism.
Furious former minister Margaret Hodge confronted the Labour leader after the crunch Commons votes on Brexit, telling him he didn’t want people like her in the party any more, HuffPost UK has been told....
...And Hodge decided to take the matter directly to Corbyn, remonstrating with him in the Commons once the key Brexit votes were over.
“You’re a fucking anti-Semite and a racist,” Hodge told him. “You have proved you don’t want people like me in the party”.
Several witnesses in different parties witnessed the attack. One said that Corbyn replied: “I’m sorry you feel like that.”
A party source confirmed to HuffPost that the account of the exchange was accurate.
“She was aggressive, Jeremy was calm. Other MPs who were there were upset by it,” the source said.
It is likely that Hodge will now be referred to the party whips for possible misconduct.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-told-by-veteran-jewish-mp-youre-a-fucking-racist-and-anti-semite-margaret-hodge_uk_5b4e34cbe4b0fd5c73bfe0200 -
Golf is tedious beyond belief. But, cricket is subtle and fascinating. It's like playing Diplomacy. The rules are ostensibly easy to learn, but in reality, there are wheels within wheels.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Cricket is exceeded only by golf in terms of its tedium.Sean_F said:
Cricket is dirtier than politics.TheScreamingEagles said:Oh dear, this is not cricket.
https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/10192989493442191370 -
Cricket is a gentle five day piss up in the sun. What’s not to like? Remarkably subtle too.0
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Do they call it a test match because, it, ah, "tests" your patience?Jonathan said:Cricket is a gentle five day piss up in the sun. What’s not to like? Remarkably subtle too.
0 -
He is not popular and has fought his constituency chair in the past. He was Plaid at one time and of course is in a highly marginal seat with a Corbynista fighting for it.FF43 said:
If you want the Airbus flag to keep flying at Broughton and for Welsh sheep farmers to stay in business, amongst many other reasons to retain the customs union, you might congratulate Gutto Bebb for being realistic and sensible.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have made my views on him to his constituency chairman. He is my mpjustin124 said:
Gutto Bebb voted for Customs Union Ammendment - but not the earlier one lost by Government.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That will upset Faisal IslamHYUFD said:Field, Hoey, Hopkins, Mann and Stringer all voted with the Government to leave the Customs Union
https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1019282377850449920
TM will protect our main manufacturers and Airbus welcomed Chequers0 -
This is not cricketTheScreamingEagles said:Oh dear, this is not cricket.
https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/10192989493442191370 -
For all the abject uselessness of May's government the much-vaunted Remain majority in parliament has been even more useless!
It has achieved the square root of fuck all in the chamber.0 -
I thought there wasn’t pairing on three line whips?Big_G_NorthWales said:
This is not cricketTheScreamingEagles said:Oh dear, this is not cricket.
https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/10192989493442191370 -
Your first two sentences are complete and utter nonsense. Your third sentence has more merit.volcanopete said:This hard Tory brexit has revealed the true intentions of the Lib Dems,to be the enabling handmaidens of the Tories.Cable and Farron are the midwives of a hard Tory brexit and the allies of the ERG.My money is on May clinging on,but Cable getting the boot before her.
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If you make a promise, you should keep it.Mortimer said:
I thought there wasn’t pairing on three line whips?Big_G_NorthWales said:
This is not cricketTheScreamingEagles said:Oh dear, this is not cricket.
https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/10192989493442191370 -
Not if you are playing itSunil_Prasannan said:
Cricket is exceeded only by golf in terms of its tedium.Sean_F said:
Cricket is dirtier than politics.TheScreamingEagles said:Oh dear, this is not cricket.
https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/10192989493442191370 -
It was clearly fake support so she could win headlines of "Brexiteer sees the light".Sean_F said:
No one had thought of her as a Brexiteer, until she suddenly said she was.numbertwelve said:
Didn’t we ever get to the bottom of how someone who was supposedly a Brexiteer managed to do such a handbrake turn in such a short space of time?Sean_F said:
The only MP I could imagine refusing to support the government on a vote of confidence is Sarah Wollaston.rottenborough said:Don't get this nonsense from Tory sources. A GE vote in 2 weeks would have been won by the Government, unless a load of Moggsters decided Corbyn was better than May.
Or am I missing something?
I guess that supporting Brexit was just a momentary aberration.0 -
Of course. But I’m wondering about the process.Jonathan said:
If you make a promise, you should keep it.Mortimer said:
I thought there wasn’t pairing on three line whips?Big_G_NorthWales said:
This is not cricketTheScreamingEagles said:Oh dear, this is not cricket.
https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/10192989493442191370 -
volcanopete said:
This hard Tory brexit has revealed the true intentions of the Lib Dems,to be the enabling handmaidens of the Tories.Cable and Farron are the midwives of a hard Tory brexit and the allies of the ERG.My money is on May clinging on,but Cable getting the boot before her.
0 -
Did I miss anything?0
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Not so, since Labour said openly that they were going to abstain (as usual). The worst you can accuse the Lib Dems of is that they took Labour at its word. The moral is never to believe Labour about anything.nunuone said:What exactly are the Libdems playing at? I mean as a brexiteer I'm happy they didn't vote again.....but why? Surely they would've known it was going to be a close vote?
And then Labour did an about turn - except for the Labour MPs who abstained, of course, and those who actually voted for Mrs May.
The normal tactic from Labour in such a situation is to defect attention from their own inadequacies by blaming the Lib Dems for everything.0 -
Out of interest would it actually be likely to be in a position to have a GE within 2 weeks of a VONC? I'm no GE expert but it doesn't seem like very long.0
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Shhhh. Don't mention John McDonnell voting to leave the single market.Andy_Cooke said:volcanopete said:This hard Tory brexit has revealed the true intentions of the Lib Dems,to be the enabling handmaidens of the Tories.Cable and Farron are the midwives of a hard Tory brexit and the allies of the ERG.My money is on May clinging on,but Cable getting the boot before her.
0 -
The Tory remainers are clearly not prepared to do anything that could jeapordise the government.
Much as they hate the ERG, they hate Corbyn more.0 -
Ahh right, so your saying we shouldn't concentrate on the Lib Dems inadequacies because Labour are to blame for it....PClipp said:
Not so, since Labour said openly that they were going to abstain (as usual). The worst you can accuse the Lib Dems of is that they took Labour at its word. The moral is never to believe Labour about anything.nunuone said:What exactly are the Libdems playing at? I mean as a brexiteer I'm happy they didn't vote again.....but why? Surely they would've known it was going to be a close vote?
And then Labour did an about turn - except for the Labour MPs who abstained, of course, and those who actually voted for Mrs May.
The normal tactic from Labour in such a situation is to defect attention from their own inadequacies by blaming the Lib Dems for everything.
This might be a good time to repeat Andy_Cooke's GIF.
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12 of them didgrabcocque said:The Tory remainers are clearly not prepared to do anything that could jeapordise the government.
Much as they hate the ERG, they hate Corbyn more.0 -
0
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That's not very parliamentary language - but shows she is spending more time in her constituency. She is talking more like a Barking and Dagenham local!TheScreamingEagles said:Jeremy Corbyn has been told he’s “a fucking anti-semite” by a veteran Jewish MP after the party upheld controversial new guidelines on tackling anti-semitism.
Furious former minister Margaret Hodge confronted the Labour leader after the crunch Commons votes on Brexit, telling him he didn’t want people like her in the party any more, HuffPost UK has been told....
...And Hodge decided to take the matter directly to Corbyn, remonstrating with him in the Commons once the key Brexit votes were over.
“You’re a fucking anti-Semite and a racist,” Hodge told him. “You have proved you don’t want people like me in the party”.
Several witnesses in different parties witnessed the attack. One said that Corbyn replied: “I’m sorry you feel like that.”
A party source confirmed to HuffPost that the account of the exchange was accurate.
“She was aggressive, Jeremy was calm. Other MPs who were there were upset by it,” the source said.
It is likely that Hodge will now be referred to the party whips for possible misconduct.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-told-by-veteran-jewish-mp-youre-a-fucking-racist-and-anti-semite-margaret-hodge_uk_5b4e34cbe4b0fd5c73bfe0200 -
Remained need to get serious or give up.grabcocque said:The Tory remainers are clearly not prepared to do anything that could jeapordise the government.
Much as they hate the ERG, they hate Corbyn more.0 -
To be fair, she actually wrote quite a good article on why we should Leave before she reversed course. IIRC, she didn't like the Turkey poster and felt Leave was playing to baser instincts.Sean_F said:
No one had thought of her as a Brexiteer, until she suddenly said she was.numbertwelve said:
Didn’t we ever get to the bottom of how someone who was supposedly a Brexiteer managed to do such a handbrake turn in such a short space of time?Sean_F said:
The only MP I could imagine refusing to support the government on a vote of confidence is Sarah Wollaston.rottenborough said:Don't get this nonsense from Tory sources. A GE vote in 2 weeks would have been won by the Government, unless a load of Moggsters decided Corbyn was better than May.
Or am I missing something?
I guess that supporting Brexit was just a momentary aberration.0 -
No. You have the FTPA to get through first, (Corbyn gets to try to form a government which commands the confidence of the house) then if that hurdle is crossed you have 25 working days between the dissolution and the election.solarflare said:Out of interest would it actually be likely to be in a position to have a GE within 2 weeks of a VONC? I'm no GE expert but it doesn't seem like very long.
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