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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay caves in to the Brexit Taliban over Chequers plan
May rejects claim accepting Tory Brexiter amendments means 'Chequers deal now dead' https://t.co/tzNxFys2Hv
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First!0
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Since Number 10 won't - perhaps Mr Herdson (or someone else) could explain why the amendments 'kill Chequers' - No.10 reckon they don't.....0
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You swallowed my vanilla comment.CarlottaVance said:First!
With you own beige one....0 -
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I can't keep up with this.0
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May has claimed someone will set out a rationale...CarlottaVance said:Since Number 10 won't - perhaps Mr Herdson (or someone else) could explain why the amendments 'kill Chequers' - No.10 reckon they don't.....
I would not have gone through all the work I did to ensure that we reached that agreement only to see it changed in some way through these bills. They do not change that Chequers agreement. And the minister from the despatch box later today will be making that clear...
... which I look forward to hearing.0 -
So, there is now actually no plan? Have I got that right?0
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It is a shit show. That’s the only constant.DecrepitJohnL said:I can't keep up with this.
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The "Brexit Taliban" being the people that were on the winning side of the referendum of course...0
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Chequers means Chequers (and it was only a short-term fix anyway).Nigelb said:
May has claimed someone will set out a rationale...CarlottaVance said:Since Number 10 won't - perhaps Mr Herdson (or someone else) could explain why the amendments 'kill Chequers' - No.10 reckon they don't.....
I would not have gone through all the work I did to ensure that we reached that agreement only to see it changed in some way through these bills. They do not change that Chequers agreement. And the minister from the despatch box later today will be making that clear...
... which I look forward to hearing.0 -
The Conservative Party has effectively split. I'm not even sure it's worth pretending it's a single party any more.
https://twitter.com/heidiallen75/status/10188852112690585600 -
*raises an eyebrow*
Taliban?
I'm not fond of throwing around pejorative terms that are exaggerations, and that's well over the top. When ardent Leave types call hard Remainers 'traitors', people, understandably, get quite upset about it. This sort of thing isn't going to calm down the bitter division, but, rather, add a few more drops into the poisonous miasma floating this way and that between the trenches.
And yes, I know terms like 'Turnip Taliban' have been used for comic effect in the past. Right now we have accusations of racism and treachery being thrown around, so it's a different situation.0 -
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Enough!TheScreamingEagles said:
It is a shit show. That’s the only constant.DecrepitJohnL said:I can't keep up with this.
Bring on Jezza!
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A disturbing editorial choice. Name-calling 'taliban' from the same group of people who scoff at any uses of the word treason or traitor.0
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Yep, this is the Corn Laws again.El_Capitano said:The Conservative Party has effectively split. I'm not even sure it's worth pretending it's a single party any more.
https://twitter.com/heidiallen75/status/10188852112690585600 -
Miss Vance, saw that on Twitter, and must agree with Mr. Borough's assessment. It's too late (although it may not have made a difference in any event).0
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Theories:
1) May is insane
2) May is so exhausted that she no longer gives a fuck about anything
3) May has made another huge mistake and will figure out at her leisure
4) The EU will be so amazed by May's breathtaking display of political masochism she'll be made empress of Europe0 -
Neither can Mrs May.DecrepitJohnL said:I can't keep up with this.
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Let me get this clear.El_Capitano said:The Conservative Party has effectively split. I'm not even sure it's worth pretending it's a single party any more.
https://twitter.com/heidiallen75/status/1018885211269058560
People thought:
'The UK will collect EU duties, but
The EU will NOT collect UK duties'
That's what people thought?0 -
They are single minded, wilfully destructive and have no end game other than destroying the established system and imposing their wilfully narrow view of the truth. That sounds like Taliban to me. The view from your bedroom may be narrower.Morris_Dancer said:*raises an eyebrow*
Taliban?
I'm not fond of throwing around pejorative terms that are exaggerations, and that's well over the top. When ardent Leave types call hard Remainers 'traitors', people, understandably, get quite upset about it. This sort of thing isn't going to calm down the bitter division, but, rather, add a few more drops into the poisonous miasma floating this way and that between the trenches.
And yes, I know terms like 'Turnip Taliban' have been used for comic effect in the past. Right now we have accusations of racism and treachery being thrown around, so it's a different situation.0 -
Christ it must be hard to be a supporter of May.
She gets an agreement through the cabinet , then a week later trashes it.
What a pitiful leader of her party and this country.0 -
That's them. They appear to take no prisoners and seem to hope for economic Armageddon to sort the pure from the unbelievers....GIN1138 said:The "Brexit Taliban" being the people that were on the winning side of the referendum of course...
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Perhaps the elephant in the room is that May's customs partnership is only a meant to be a way to disguise large ongoing cash payments to the EU based on a "formula".CarlottaVance said:
Let me get this clear.El_Capitano said:The Conservative Party has effectively split. I'm not even sure it's worth pretending it's a single party any more.
https://twitter.com/heidiallen75/status/1018885211269058560
People thought:
'The UK will collect EU duties, but
The EU will NOT collect UK duties'
That's what people thought?0 -
5) She's trying to outdo Trump in sheer absurdity.grabcocque said:Theories:
1) May is insane
2) May is so exhausted that she no longer gives a fuck about anything
3) May has made another huge mistake and will figure out at her leisure
4) The EU will be so amazed by May's breathtaking display of political masochism she'll be made empress of Europe0 -
Appropriate epithet as the original Taliban were a group of undesirable extremists who claimed support of the people, cut themselves off from the rest of the world and fucked their country upGIN1138 said:The "Brexit Taliban" being the people that were on the winning side of the referendum of course...
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Additionally, I doubt most Taliban members have ever changed a nappymatt said:
They are single minded, wilfully destructive and have no end game other than destroying the established system and imposing their wilfully narrow view of the truth. That sounds like Taliban to me. The view from your bedroom may be narrower.Morris_Dancer said:*raises an eyebrow*
Taliban?
I'm not fond of throwing around pejorative terms that are exaggerations, and that's well over the top. When ardent Leave types call hard Remainers 'traitors', people, understandably, get quite upset about it. This sort of thing isn't going to calm down the bitter division, but, rather, add a few more drops into the poisonous miasma floating this way and that between the trenches.
And yes, I know terms like 'Turnip Taliban' have been used for comic effect in the past. Right now we have accusations of racism and treachery being thrown around, so it's a different situation.0 -
The ERG will set you free.0
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Brexit Macht Frei0
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To think of the abuse I used to get when I said Mrs May wasn’t very good back in 2016/early 2017.
#IAmAVisionary0 -
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1018880458145214464
Time for that choice to be put back to the people?0 -
Goes onto PB
Sees the Brexit loons are trying to wreck the country.
Goes back to reading about asteroid mining.0 -
Undesirable extremists? 52% of the Country?Nigel_Foremain said:
Appropriate epithet as the original Taliban were a group of undesirable extremists who claimed support of the people, cut themselves off from the rest of the world and fucked their country upGIN1138 said:The "Brexit Taliban" being the people that were on the winning side of the referendum of course...
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But why does this 'trash Chequers' - or is that just a lazy soundbite for its various opponents?williamglenn said:
Perhaps the elephant in the room is that May's customs partnership is only a meant to be a way to disguise large ongoing cash payments to the EU based on a "formula".CarlottaVance said:
Let me get this clear.El_Capitano said:The Conservative Party has effectively split. I'm not even sure it's worth pretending it's a single party any more.
https://twitter.com/heidiallen75/status/1018885211269058560
People thought:
'The UK will collect EU duties, but
The EU will NOT collect UK duties'
That's what people thought?0 -
Mr. Matt, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban#Massacre_campaigns
People can use what terms they wish. If said terms seem over the top to me, I'm quite content to make that observation. It'd be better if we considered ideas and means, rather than throwing insulting terms, but that's just my view.0 -
It only trashes Chequers if Chequers is taken at face value.CarlottaVance said:
But why does this 'trash Chequers' - or is that just a lazy soundbite for its various opponents?williamglenn said:
Perhaps the elephant in the room is that May's customs partnership is only a meant to be a way to disguise large ongoing cash payments to the EU based on a "formula".CarlottaVance said:
Let me get this clear.El_Capitano said:The Conservative Party has effectively split. I'm not even sure it's worth pretending it's a single party any more.
https://twitter.com/heidiallen75/status/1018885211269058560
People thought:
'The UK will collect EU duties, but
The EU will NOT collect UK duties'
That's what people thought?0 -
I've never liked or agreed with the headbanger Tory wing of the party BUT, I'd prefer them to be in a showdown with the EU than weak May.
For balance, I'd prefer it if Mcdonnell and Corbyn were heading into battle with them than May and Olly fucking Robbins.
It is IMPERATIVE that the EU member states see the whites of NO DEAL's eyes.
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If there is to be a 3-way referendum (as I've hoped but not dared to believe for a while now) I'd have thought that EEA membership should be an option - this represents 'soft Brexit' better than anything else on the table and certainly Chequers looks like a hard Brexit from where I'm sitting, albeit with a dollop of fudge on.
I don't know how much more of this chaotic to and fro we can take in the meantime though.0 -
Yes, I’d like this explained as well, as the whole process is confusing me at this stage.CarlottaVance said:
But why does this 'trash Chequers' - or is that just a lazy soundbite for its various opponents?williamglenn said:
Perhaps the elephant in the room is that May's customs partnership is only a meant to be a way to disguise large ongoing cash payments to the EU based on a "formula".CarlottaVance said:
Let me get this clear.El_Capitano said:The Conservative Party has effectively split. I'm not even sure it's worth pretending it's a single party any more.
https://twitter.com/heidiallen75/status/1018885211269058560
People thought:
'The UK will collect EU duties, but
The EU will NOT collect UK duties'
That's what people thought?0 -
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I believe that Taliban is the plural of Talib, which means 'Seeker'. I'm sure Brexit 'Seekers' is what Mike must have meant.
He surely can't have been comparing them to a fundamentalist Islamic army? He's not becoming one of the Re-mujahideen?0 -
Could be worse. She could be editing a money losing local free-sheet.....TheScreamingEagles said:To think of the abuse I used to get when I said Mrs May wasn’t very good back in 2016/early 2017.
#IAmAVisionary0 -
One should not underestimate the value of optimism.CarlottaVance said:0 -
I think Theresa knows the game is up. She's now transferring ownership of Brexit to Rees-Mogg so if it's a catastrophe he'll be blamed and history will be a little kinder to her. It makes a grim kind of sense.0
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I have lost track of the number of times May has been written off as completely useless...yet here she still is, wading grimly on through a mess largely (Brexit - she owns GE17) not of her making.....Sean_F said:
One should not underestimate the value of optimism.CarlottaVance said:0 -
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I doubt it. An erg is the energy required to accelerate 1 gram at 1 cms^2 or about the same energy as a housefly uses to stretch its legs.volcanopete said:The ERG will set you free.
It is also the same amount of energy expended by certain "Leave" politicians to examine the feasibility of their preferred Brexit, thus the name of the group0 -
It's all about you, isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:To think of the abuse I used to get when I said Mrs May wasn’t very good back in 2016/early 2017.
#IAmAVisionary0 -
So completely useless we have full employment in this Country for this first time in my 50 yearsCarlottaVance said:
I have lost track of the number of times May has been written off as completely useless...yet here she still is, wading grimly on through a mess largely not of her making.....Sean_F said:
One should not underestimate the value of optimism.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Does the EU collecting "our dues" only make sense if we had a higher rate? It would then stop customs arbitrage where an EU firm imported and then immediately exported to us. Is this likely? An alternative would be requiring reporting within the UK and prosecuting blatant rule-breakers.0
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So the hard right Ultras have now taken over the Tory Party.......
Long Live Corbyn! (and Abbott and McDonnell and Long Bailey and Rayner and Watson)
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Or we could just stay in.NorthofStoke said:Does the EU collecting "our dues" only make sense if we had a higher rate? It would then stop customs arbitrage where an EU firm imported and then immediately exported to us. Is this likely? An alternative would be requiring reporting within the UK and prosecuting blatant rule-breakers.
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I don't know what you mean. She was the blessed Dave's last and most enduring gift to the nation, before swanning off to the shepherd hut to work on those memoirs.TheScreamingEagles said:To think of the abuse I used to get when I said Mrs May wasn’t very good back in 2016/early 2017.
#IAmAVisionary
As I have said before, thank God Dave was rather good at being PM. Look where his country and party are now, and think what trouble we would be in if he'd been a bit shit at it.0 -
There could be a lot of truth in that. Plunging polls, mass resignations from the activists and fury in vote leaving constituencies over the weekend must have had an effectStark_Dawning said:I think Theresa knows the game is up. She's now transferring ownership of Brexit to Rees-Mogg so if it's a catastrophe he'll be blamed and history will be a little kinder to her. It makes a grim kind of sense.
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CarlottaVance said:
More than Cameron and Osborne did before the referendum...0 -
Clowns on the left, Jokers on the right?Roger said:So the hard right Ultras have now taken over the Tory Party.......
Long Live Corbyn! (and Abbott and McDonnell and Long Bailey and Rayner and Watson)0 -
The same liars who said that "of course we'll stay in the Single Market" and "of course we can stay in the EEA - what's wrong with being like Norway?" and "the EU will give us everything we want - their car manufacturers need us, don'cha know?"GIN1138 said:The "Brexit Taliban" being the people that were on the winning side of the referendum of course...
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Full employment is what we had from 1945 - late 1960s when the jobless figures were well under 500,000 in most years.Moreover , when account is taken of the many 'adjustments' to the figures ,unemployment today remains well above mid-1970s levels - indeed on a like for like basis we are probably still looking at circa 2 million unemployed.currystar said:
So completely useless we have full employment in this Country for this first time in my 50 yearsCarlottaVance said:
I have lost track of the number of times May has been written off as completely useless...yet here she still is, wading grimly on through a mess largely not of her making.....Sean_F said:
One should not underestimate the value of optimism.CarlottaVance said:0 -
You are not alone Ms Apocalypse, believe me.The_Apocalypse said:
Yes, I’d like this explained as well, as the whole process is confusing me at this stage.CarlottaVance said:
But why does this 'trash Chequers' - or is that just a lazy soundbite for its various opponents?williamglenn said:
Perhaps the elephant in the room is that May's customs partnership is only a meant to be a way to disguise large ongoing cash payments to the EU based on a "formula".CarlottaVance said:
Let me get this clear.El_Capitano said:The Conservative Party has effectively split. I'm not even sure it's worth pretending it's a single party any more.
https://twitter.com/heidiallen75/status/1018885211269058560
People thought:
'The UK will collect EU duties, but
The EU will NOT collect UK duties'
That's what people thought?0 -
May is a brilliant leader mind you.
Last week Soubry, Morgan and Adonis were singing her praises, this week JRM and co are running the show.
The truth is somewhat more devilishly complicated than that but these extremes are an example of how out of control she is of the message and events.
I personally think she's had it. The big question is whether the Tories can stay intact.0 -
I think the only way to accept the amendments and not abrogate the December agreement with the EU is to keep the whole UK in the Customs Union.
I look forward to HMG bowing to logic and adopting Labour party policy.0 -
Wish we could - and not tear us apart. Now realised I didn't know enough to even ask a sensible question. More research required...Recidivist said:
Or we could just stay in.NorthofStoke said:Does the EU collecting "our dues" only make sense if we had a higher rate? It would then stop customs arbitrage where an EU firm imported and then immediately exported to us. Is this likely? An alternative would be requiring reporting within the UK and prosecuting blatant rule-breakers.
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Labour Party have a Policy???OblitusSumMe said:I think the only way to accept the amendments and not abrogate the December agreement with the EU is to keep the whole UK in the Customs Union.
I look forward to HMG bowing to logic and adopting Labour party policy.0 -
I'm not sure if the "broad public" are turning on May. Perhaps the exposure of the inherent difficulties and the fractious but almost equally balanced factions in the HOC mean that her compromise might make it through even with a few bullet holes and dents in it.0
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Soubry in action in House. 3 people in prison for death threats to her alone.0
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So Cabinet government was restored around this agreement last weekend.
But now it is changed.
Does that mean the Cabinet are bound, or not bound, to support these amendments?
Sorry if there is an obvious answer to this.0 -
She's an excellent communicator. She's been driven a bit mad by Brexit though.rottenborough said:Soubry in action in House. 3 people in prison for death threats to her alone.
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And still admirably, and consistently, completely useless.CarlottaVance said:
I have lost track of the number of times May has been written off as completely useless...yet here she still is, wading grimly on through a mess largely (Brexit - she owns GE17) not of her making.....Sean_F said:
One should not underestimate the value of optimism.CarlottaVance said:0 -
The CU alone is not sufficient. Regulatory alignment is also required facilitate an open border.OblitusSumMe said:I think the only way to accept the amendments and not abrogate the December agreement with the EU is to keep the whole UK in the Customs Union.
I look forward to HMG bowing to logic and adopting Labour party policy.0 -
Soubry: "this is complete madness"0
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Comes from the same school of thought that has Trump as a master strategist.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Soubry: "who is actually running Britain?"
Wow!0 -
Its quite a heroic rant!rottenborough said:Soubry: "this is complete madness"
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And answer came there none....(yet, anyway....)dixiedean said:
You are not alone Ms Apocalypse, believe me.The_Apocalypse said:
Yes, I’d like this explained as well, as the whole process is confusing me at this stage.CarlottaVance said:
But why does this 'trash Chequers' - or is that just a lazy soundbite for its various opponents?williamglenn said:
Perhaps the elephant in the room is that May's customs partnership is only a meant to be a way to disguise large ongoing cash payments to the EU based on a "formula".CarlottaVance said:
Let me get this clear.El_Capitano said:The Conservative Party has effectively split. I'm not even sure it's worth pretending it's a single party any more.
https://twitter.com/heidiallen75/status/1018885211269058560
People thought:
'The UK will collect EU duties, but
The EU will NOT collect UK duties'
That's what people thought?0 -
Mr. F, Icarus certainly believed in the power of optimism.0
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0
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Trump, President of the United States? That one?logical_song said:
Comes from the same school of thought that has Trump as a master strategist.CarlottaVance said:0 -
No-one it seems.rottenborough said:Soubry: "who is actually running Britain?"
Wow!0 -
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Now, now, Anna, it was your turn last week. Play nicely and let Jacob have his goFrankBooth said:
No-one it seems.rottenborough said:Soubry: "who is actually running Britain?"
Wow!0 -
I seem Carole Cadwalladr has just done an Elon Musk....0
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As I keep saying The Good Ship May sails on serenely...CarlottaVance said:
I have lost track of the number of times May has been written off as completely useless...yet here she still is, wading grimly on through a mess largely (Brexit - she owns GE17) not of her making..... 0 -
Off thread - having had all the children it's sensible to have, I've just been on the phone to the Marie Stopes to make an appointment for a vasectomy. In doing so, I was asked five equality and diversity questions: ethnicity, religious belief, whether I have a disability, sexualorientation, and gender identity. I would suggest that two of those questions are somewhat superfluous, given the nature of the operation.0
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I doubt she is serene. More like on the edge of a nervous breakdown with all this madness around her.GIN1138 said:
As I keep saying The Good Ship May sails on serenely...CarlottaVance said:
I have lost track of the number of times May has been written off as completely useless...yet here she still is, wading grimly on through a mess largely (Brexit - she owns GE17) not of her making.....0 -
Mr. Dean, Honorius was Roman emperor for a long time despite being phenomenally, catastrophically useless.0
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"Calm down dear"rottenborough said:Soubry: "this is complete madness"
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I would suggest that five of them are superfluous given the nature of the operation.Cookie said:Off thread - having had all the children it's sensible to have, I've just been on the phone to the Marie Stopes to make an appointment for a vasectomy. In doing so, I was asked five equality and diversity questions: ethnicity, religious belief, whether I have a disability, sexualorientation, and gender identity. I would suggest that two of those questions are somewhat superfluous, given the nature of the operation.
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Taliban comparison is bonkers. JRM is definitely out there but he isn't going to kill anyone.
On the amendments, not sure what's going on, but not particularly convinced this is actually such a big news story. Whatever deal is done will go through Parliament and presumably that can override these amendments if need be?0 -
OT. Funny how people are still taking Trump seriously. It's pretty obvious most of the time he's just having fun.
It occurred to me when they put on that show for him at Blenheim Palace that it was a scene stolen from 'Being There' where the sycophants were made to look foolish by taking Chance seriously.
But looking back everyone including Trump could see the absurdity of the scene and thanks to his TV experience he was just about able to carry it off without cracking up.
In fact the only one who didn't get the joke was the Queen who looked like she'd been used in a sitcom without being told0 -
Mr. rkrkrk, that may depend on Grieve's meaningful vote. Which would be a supreme irony.0
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She seems to have got off the fence and moved to ERGrottenborough said:
I doubt she is serene. More like on the edge of a nervous breakdown with all this madness around her.GIN1138 said:
As I keep saying The Good Ship May sails on serenely...CarlottaVance said:
I have lost track of the number of times May has been written off as completely useless...yet here she still is, wading grimly on through a mess largely (Brexit - she owns GE17) not of her making.....
I believe she knows Chequers would run into trouble with the EU and is preparing to walk out when they do, blaming them for the failure, and announcing hard Brexit contingency planning.
In these circumstances I believe remain becomes impossible0 -
FPT - glad TSE picked out David's post, I think it was top class.
Top post. Will be interesting to read her autobiography... much of her decision-making or strategy seems to make less sense in retrospect! Whatever rational purpose might eventually be discerned in one act, she negates by her next.david_herdson said:In accepting the amendments today, May has effectively killed her own Chequers Deal (which cost her two cabinet ministers and several more junior government members), and made No Deal *far* more likely.
The question has to be why. Either she doesn't understand the consequences of what she's done, or she has actively chosen to bin her own compromise in favour of something else - but what?
If she does understand what she's doing then the only rational explanation is that she expected to lose her Chequers Plan anyway and acted early in order to forestall further opposition and, presumably, resignations. But it's come at one hell of a cost. Apart from anything else, she's now risking No Confidence letters from the left of the Party - which if they go in before the Mogglodites withdraw theirs could prompt a No Confidence vote.
(Incidentally, given how mindboggling the dance of government and parliament is in this negotiation, how would those rare people who proposed that somehow parliament, rather than government, should have run the negotiation think it would have worked in practice?)0 -
Alternatively, politics has been made mad by Brexit and she's one of the few sane ones on either side of the house prepared to stand up and point out that both parties are living in a fantasyland dreamt up by their own hardliners.Fenster said:
She's an excellent communicator. She's been driven a bit mad by Brexit though.rottenborough said:Soubry in action in House. 3 people in prison for death threats to her alone.
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Meanwhile, in the Socialist Party:
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/10189045726712217620 -
Today feels like a big day:
1. Brexit has hit a brick wall which means we stay in the EU or crash out; there's no middle way now.
2. Trump has backed Putin over his own intelligence services.
In peace time it doesn't get much bigger really.
On the domestic front, what May has done today has ensured that however ambivalent Corbyn is over Brexit, the 2017 Labour voting alliance will hold together. He must be loving this.0
