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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay caves in to the Brexit Taliban over Chequers plan

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,222

    Pulpstar said:

    1st Division - 27 maj for the Gov't/

    Not a full house in the chamber, clearly

    I think 27 is pretty good for the gov't - not too many Tory Remainers voting with Labour
    Gives a baseline, clause 36 (Or was it 37) seems to be the one the Tory remainers might well die on a hill for.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    ydoethur said:

    Sky confirming government looking to bring recess forward to Thursday

    May trying to stop any more laws being passed to reverse Chequers by shutting down parliament early?
    No more votes on the matter after tonight; it's about time for plotting

    n.b. The Spanish sent a young general called Franco to the Canary Islands to keep him out of trouble...
    And they didn't even have Twitter in those days...apart from the canaries, I suppose.
    the canaries of those islands bark, of course. but it was worth the etymological inaccouracy for the pun
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited July 2018
    If only someone had allowed the publishing of some kind of report to such effect in, ooooh, let's say August 2016?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    1st Division - 27 maj for the Gov't/

    Not a full house in the chamber, clearly

    I think 27 is pretty good for the gov't - not too many Tory Remainers voting with Labour
    Gives a baseline, clause 36 (Or was it 37) seems to be the one the Tory remainers might well die on a hill for.
    If the Gov't wins against Lab, SNP amendments - does it care if it loses on the ERG, being forced to adopt the position it would have anyway?

  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    How many times has the House voted against staying in the customs union will be a good pub quiz question in the future.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    We should club together to get her to perform it live.
    We could call it Lemon Aid.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,222

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    1st Division - 27 maj for the Gov't/

    Not a full house in the chamber, clearly

    I think 27 is pretty good for the gov't - not too many Tory Remainers voting with Labour
    Gives a baseline, clause 36 (Or was it 37) seems to be the one the Tory remainers might well die on a hill for.
    If the Gov't wins against Lab, SNP amendments - does it care if it loses on the ERG, being forced to adopt the position it would have anyway?

    I was thinking the same myself. The one the Gov't might well not want to lose is the Irish border one. The reciprocity might well do the Gov't a favour to lose.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,020
    Foxy said:

    Russian pro-gun activist linked to NRA charged with spying in US for Moscow

    Maria Butina, 29, arrested on Sunday and appeared before a magistrate in Washington on Monday, according to the DoJ.

    A Washington-based pro-gun activist affiliated with the National Rifle Association (NRA) has been charged with spying in the US for Russia.

    Maria Butina was charged with conspiracy to act as an agent of the Russian federation within the US without prior notification to the attorney general.

    Butina, 29, was arrested on Sunday and appeared before a magistrate in Washington on Monday, according to the US justice department.

    She is known as a protege of Alexander Torshin, a Russian former state banker, who met Donald Trump Jr for dinner at the NRA’s 2016 convention. Torshin was placed under sanction by the US in April this year.

    A Justice Department press release said Butina had been “developing relationships with US persons and infiltrating organizations having influence in American politics, for the purpose of advancing the interests of the Russian federation.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/16/maria-butina-charged-spying-russia-us-doj

    Where's Eugene McCarthy when his country needs him?
    Much as the USA would benefit from a poetry writing, progressive, anti war Democrat, I fear Gene M. would struggle to be heard in these dark days.

    Joe McCarthy otoh...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    How many times has the House voted against staying in the customs union will be a good pub quiz question in the future.

    I think that’s 4 now.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,757
    edited July 2018


    It will be if UK walks away - disaster for everyone but a move that could receive backing from the UK electorate who will see the EU as the cause

    For about three hours before the true horror of the no-deal reality starts to dawn.
    I fear many just do not care - and that is a very serious problem
    This is why I'm siding with TSE on this. No deal brexit, and the ensuing chaos MUST be allowed to happen.

    We have to follow this rabbit hole of stupid all the way to the bottom. It's the only way to lance this boil.
    Yes, that was my view too, but I do see the advantage of vassal state Brexit. We gain all that well thought through EU regulation and give Fatage his P45. Its not all bad.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Mortimer said:

    How many times has the House voted against staying in the customs union will be a good pub quiz question in the future.

    I think that’s 4 now.
    Those remainers are not thick, oh no siree really smart they are.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,222
    This one will be a huge win for the gov't, Labour abstaining.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,757

    Foxy said:

    Russian pro-gun activist linked to NRA charged with spying in US for Moscow

    Maria Butina, 29, arrested on Sunday and appeared before a magistrate in Washington on Monday, according to the DoJ.

    A Washington-based pro-gun activist affiliated with the National Rifle Association (NRA) has been charged with spying in the US for Russia.

    Maria Butina was charged with conspiracy to act as an agent of the Russian federation within the US without prior notification to the attorney general.

    Butina, 29, was arrested on Sunday and appeared before a magistrate in Washington on Monday, according to the US justice department.

    She is known as a protege of Alexander Torshin, a Russian former state banker, who met Donald Trump Jr for dinner at the NRA’s 2016 convention. Torshin was placed under sanction by the US in April this year.

    A Justice Department press release said Butina had been “developing relationships with US persons and infiltrating organizations having influence in American politics, for the purpose of advancing the interests of the Russian federation.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/16/maria-butina-charged-spying-russia-us-doj

    Where's Eugene McCarthy when his country needs him?
    Much as the USA would benefit from a poetry writing, progressive, anti war Democrat, I fear Gene M. would struggle to be heard in these dark days.

    Joe McCarthy otoh...
    Either would be good, but you are right I did have in mind Joe McCarthy and his House Unamerican Activities Committee.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,222
    Mortimer said:

    How many times has the House voted against staying in the customs union will be a good pub quiz question in the future.

    I think that’s 4 now.
    This one was a vote for "A", not the customs union though. Which makes it stronger than previous bills for a hard brexit.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,442

    ydoethur said:

    Sky confirming government looking to bring recess forward to Thursday

    May trying to stop any more laws being passed to reverse Chequers by shutting down parliament early?
    No more votes on the matter after tonight; it's about time for plotting

    n.b. The Spanish sent a young general called Franco to the Canary Islands to keep him out of trouble...
    And they didn't even have Twitter in those days...apart from the canaries, I suppose.
    the canaries of those islands bark, of course. but it was worth the etymological inaccouracy for the pun
    I am sure the inaccuracy will dog me.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,307

    Nigelb said:


    It will be if UK walks away - disaster for everyone but a move that could receive backing from the UK electorate who will see the EU as the cause

    For about three hours before the true horror of the no-deal reality starts to dawn.
    I fear many just do not care - and that is a very serious problem
    This is why I'm siding with TSE on this. No deal brexit, and the ensuing chaos MUST be allowed to happen.

    We have to follow this rabbit hole of stupid all the way to the bottom. It's the only way to lance this boil.
    Yup, No Deal Brexit will destroy British eurosceptism for a century if not forever.

    Plus it will screw the Leaver voters as their tax credits are abolished as the government cannot afford them any more.

    What's not to love?
    Some of us don’t have a century to watch it all pan out.
    If we have a few weeks of no deal Brexit we'll have rejoined the EU within a decade.
    Here’s hoping you’re right, but I have my doubts.

    Will Brexit get the blame - or will it just be the government ? And its successors.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,169
    SeanT said:

    Off topic, but has ANY major UK TV news outlet covered the enormous riots in France following the World Cup win?

    A flavour on my twitter feed:

    twitter.com/NBbreaking/status/1018624699360784384

    twitter.com/NBbreaking/status/1018622625558466561

    twitter.com/NBbreaking/status/1018621535437950976

    Google it up and some of the videos are terrifying.

    This is different to the rowdy exuberance I saw (in St Tropez), following France's World Cup win in 1998. Then it was genuine good spirits, if slightly unnerving.

    This week people in France DIED and there was a breakdown of civil order in several city centres. Riots were nationwide.

    Doesn't it happen every summer in France...its their national summer sport.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,222
    SeanT said:

    Off topic, but has ANY major UK TV news outlet covered the enormous riots in France following the World Cup win?

    A flavour on my twitter feed:

    https://twitter.com/NBbreaking/status/1018624699360784384

    https://twitter.com/NBbreaking/status/1018622625558466561

    https://twitter.com/NBbreaking/status/1018621535437950976

    Google it up and some of the videos are terrifying.

    This is different to the rowdy exuberance I saw (in St Tropez), following France's World Cup win in 1998. Then it was genuine good spirits, if slightly unnerving.

    This week people in France DIED and there was a breakdown of civil order in several city centres. Riots were nationwide.

    Any riots in the Normandie-Maine national park ?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    "No Conservatives voted with Labour in the first division, on the customs union. (See 9.16pm.)" - Guardian
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Pulpstar said:

    Mortimer said:

    How many times has the House voted against staying in the customs union will be a good pub quiz question in the future.

    I think that’s 4 now.
    This one was a vote for "A", not the customs union though. Which makes it stronger than previous bills for a hard brexit.
    Good point.

    Soft Brexit is effectively killed by this bill.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Mortimer said:

    FF43 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    The immediate issue is getting a Withdrawal Agreement in place so there is a somewhat orderly Brexit. This in turn depends on the UK signing a NI backstop for customs, which today's amendments formally exclude. So we will hit full-scale crisis this autumn. Either the EU backs down on the backstop (unlikely), or we will have a chaotic Brexit, or we cave into EU demands in the most humiliating circumstances, or Brexit will be delayed indefinitely.

    I suspect Mrs

    Replacing May by someone competent won't work. It isn't an issue of competence. The problem is Brexit itself.

    Since no government will accept an internal customs border, and since this is a deal-breaker for the EU, would it not be best for both sides to acknowledge that there cannot be a deal, and plan accordingly.
    Even I think the NI backstop is a reach. But the UK government isn't serious about customs arrangements and the Irish border specifically,. Which is why the backstop looms ever larger. The context of course is that government doesn't have the numbers, it has a powerful "Taliban" faction to appease and it has to respect a democratic but profoundly stupid referendum decision. None of this is of any concern to the EU.
    It seems to me that for EU negotiators to use the threat of renewed violence in Northern Ireland as a way of trying to extract concessions from the government is irresponsible in the extreme. Terrorism is not something you can confine to one locality.
    The EU is not using the threat of renewed violence as a negotiating tactic.and it is rather more irresponsible of our side to imply it is.. The Irish border is a genuinely tricky issue that the UK government thinks it can make go away by downplaying the implications. The EU is running with the issue because it is the key concern of Ireland, a continuing member state whose interests the EU represents. The moment the UK comes up with a solution satisfactory to the Irish the EU will sign off. The UK would be advised to engage the Irish but is not doing that at all.

    On the practicalities a customs border on the Irish Sea makes more sense than on the land border. Most people in Northern Ireland agree. But I do think that decision is for the UK to make.
    Given 80% of NI trade is intra UK, this isn’t a sensible solution.
    Brexit itself isn't sensible. The Irish Sea is an existing physical barrier where lorries get stopped and checked already and where there is relatively little casual cross border taste. Unlike the land border. Putting checks on either border has strong negative symbolism, but Brexit forces us to choose.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,169
    edited July 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    Mortimer said:

    How many times has the House voted against staying in the customs union will be a good pub quiz question in the future.

    I think that’s 4 now.
    This one was a vote for "A", not the customs union though. Which makes it stronger than previous bills for a hard brexit.
    What about a a customs partnership? or "not a customs union, but all the same rules as a customs union" union?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Pulpstar said:

    Mortimer said:

    How many times has the House voted against staying in the customs union will be a good pub quiz question in the future.

    I think that’s 4 now.
    This one was a vote for "A", not the customs union though. Which makes it stronger than previous bills for a hard brexit.
    What about a a customs partnership....?
    The amendment would have required the government to adopt a position, that will now be left open. Clearly it does suggest that there is no majority for a customs union in the House (all things being equal). A customs partnership gets flack from both sides, much more difficult to read.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,222

    Pulpstar said:

    Mortimer said:

    How many times has the House voted against staying in the customs union will be a good pub quiz question in the future.

    I think that’s 4 now.
    This one was a vote for "A", not the customs union though. Which makes it stronger than previous bills for a hard brexit.
    What about a a customs partnership? or "not a customs union, but all the same rules as a customs union" union?
    Doubtless we'll have a deep and special partnership, like Elon Musk, Donald Trump, Twitter & Russia.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Roger said:


    IanB2 said:

    BREAKING: Southgate’s achievements with England have been recognised by TfL with Southgate tube station being temporarily rebranded as ‘Gareth Southgate’ for 48 hours from Monday.

    Benjamin Mendy won A Premier League Winners Medal A Caraboo Cup Winners Medal A World Cup Winners Medal and The Legion of Honour and he only played in seven games all season. If they named an Airport after him I wouldn't be at all surprised.
    very good

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,222
    280 majority LOL
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,222
    Clause 36, this one will be where the Gov't is defeated if they're going to be.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    Pulpstar said:

    280 majority LOL

    SNP motion I assume
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    FF43 said:

    Mortimer said:

    FF43 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    The immediate issue is getting a Withdrawal Agreement in place so there is a somewhat orderly Brexit. This in turn depends on the UK signing a NI backstop for customs, which today's amendments formally exclude. So we will hit full-scale crisis this autumn. Either the EU backs down on the backstop (unlikely), or we will have a chaotic Brexit, or we cave into EU demands in the most humiliating circumstances, or Brexit will be delayed indefinitely.

    Since no government will accept an internal customs border, and since this is a deal-breaker for the EU, would it not be best for both sides to acknowledge that there cannot be a deal, and plan accordingly.
    Even I think the NI backstop is a reach. But the UK government isn't serious about customs arrangements and the Irish border specifically,. Which is why the backstop looms ever larger. The context of course is that government doesn't have the numbers, it has a powerful "Taliban" faction to appease and it has to respect a democratic but profoundly stupid referendum decision. None of this is of any concern to the EU.
    It seems to me that for EU negotiators to use the threat of renewed violence in Northern Ireland as a way of trying to extract concessions from the government is irresponsible in the extreme. Terrorism is not something you can confine to one locality.
    The EU is not using the threat of renewed violence as a negotiating tactic.and it is rather more irresponsible of our side to imply it is.. The Irish border is a genuinely tricky issue that the UK government thinks it can make go away by downplaying the implications. The EU is running with the issue because it is the key concern of Ireland, a continuing member state whose interests the EU represents. The moment the UK comes up with a solution satisfactory to the Irish the EU will sign off. The UK would be advised to engage the Irish but is not doing that at all.

    On the practicalities a customs border on the Irish Sea makes more sense than on the land border. Most people in Northern Ireland agree. But I do think that decision is for the UK to make.
    Given 80% of NI trade is intra UK, this isn’t a sensible solution.
    Brexit itself isn't sensible. The Irish Sea is an existing physical barrier where lorries get stopped and checked already and where there is relatively little casual cross border taste. Unlike the land border. Putting checks on either border has strong negative symbolism, but Brexit forces us to choose.
    If you have any respect for democracy, it is not only sensible but necessary.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Tory remainers are such toothless wee fearties when push comes to shove.

    No wonder the Mogglodytes are shitting all over them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,222

    Pulpstar said:

    280 majority LOL

    SNP motion I assume
    Does 36 votes mean they couldn't even get Plaid onboard ?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    SeanT said:

    Thanks for your videos, albeit a bit loaded.....at least you have moved on from sad middle aged bloke bragging about his sex life....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,222

    Tory remainers are such toothless wee fearties when push comes to shove.

    No wonder the Mogglodytes are shitting all over them.

    We'll know that in 15 minutes.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Tory remainers are such toothless wee fearties when push comes to shove.

    No wonder the Mogglodytes are shitting all over them.

    ‘Beaten by a bus’ springs to mind.
  • chloechloe Posts: 308
    edited July 2018
    The government deserves to lose the next election to a Corbyn landslide,having led us to a high risk hardline Brexit.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,857
    It all comes back to Ireland. And yet for about a year after the referendum it hardly got a mention. Where were all those 'good deal' Brexiters offering solutions? Seems like they have the Arsene Wenger approach to the game. Focus on your own qualities and don't bother too much about what the opposition is thinking. No doubt the headbangers will claim it was all a matter of not being 'tough' enough in the negotiations. At least some Brexiters like Lawson (who actually know the EU) always said we were unlikely to get a good deal and should prepare accordingly.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    280 majority LOL

    SNP motion I assume
    Does 36 votes mean they couldn't even get Plaid onboard ?
    Who !!!!!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,180
    On questionable awards to sportsmen, Shane Warne enjoyed welcoming Paul Collingwood to the crease in the 06-07 Ashes by saying very loudly “Paul Collingwood MBE!”
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Mortimer said:

    FF43 said:

    Mortimer said:

    FF43 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    The immediate issue is getting a Withdrawal Agreement in place so there is a somewhat orderly Brexit. This in turn depends on the UK signing a NI backstop for customs, which today's amendments formally exclude. So we will hit full-scale crisis this autumn. Either the EU backs down on the backstop (unlikely), or we will have a chaotic Brexit, or we cave into EU demands in the most humiliating circumstances, or Brexit will be delayed indefinitely.

    Since no government will accept an internal customs border, and since this is a deal-breaker for the EU, would it not be best for both sides to acknowledge that there cannot be a deal, and plan accordingly.
    Even I think
    It seems to me that for EU negotiators to use the threat of renewed violence in Northern Ireland as a way of trying to extract concessions from the government is irresponsible in the extreme. Terrorism is not something you can confine to one locality.
    The EU is not using the threat of renewed violence as a negotiating tactic.and it is rather more irresponsible of our side to imply it is.. The Irish border is a genuinely tricky issue that the UK government thinks it can make go away by downplaying the implications. The EU is running with the issue because it is the key concern of Ireland, a continuing member state whose interests the EU represents. The moment the UK comes up with a solution satisfactory to the Irish the EU will sign off. The UK would be advised to engage the Irish but is not doing that at all.

    On the practicalities a customs border on the Irish Sea makes more sense than on the land border. Most people in Northern Ireland agree. But I do think that decision is for the UK to make.
    Given 80% of NI trade is intra UK, this isn’t a sensible solution.
    Brexit itself isn't sensible. The Irish Sea is an existing physical barrier where lorries get stopped and checked already and where there is relatively little casual cross border taste. Unlike the land border. Putting checks on either border has strong negative symbolism, but Brexit forces us to choose.
    If you have any respect for democracy, it is not only sensible but necessary.
    I have plenty of respect for democracy. Democracy is powerful and allows us to do stupid things. We are not and should not be protected from the the consequences of our decisions. Democratic decisions don't get stupider than Brexit. Which is why we don't have any good options. At least I am realistic about that.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    So the rebels need about 13 on board. We'll see...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    chloe said:

    The government deserves to lose the next election to a Corbyn landslide,having led us to a high risk hardline Brexit.

    A hard Brexit is what he wants
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,394
    SeanT said:


    It will be if UK walks away - disaster for everyone but a move that could receive backing from the UK electorate who will see the EU as the cause

    For about three hours before the true horror of the no-deal reality starts to dawn.
    I think we'd just go all Blitz Spirit-y

    It is human nature. We'd blame the devious Europeans and unite around God and Queen. That's what tribes do.

    A few hardy Remoaner souls would carry on bleating but as we had to do the Berlin Airlift to keep Belfast in loo-roll they'd find themselves lynched, quite quickly.

    I am serious, by the way. I think total collapse and massive adversity would see us unify, even as we were forced to eat Lidl sausage rolls (comandeered by the army).
    I go back and forth on this. No Deal Brexit might result in massive hatred towards the Conservatives, massive hatred towards the EU, or massive hatred towards both. Or maybe, no strong emotions at all.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,180
    Pulpstar said:

    Clause 36, this one will be where the Gov't is defeated if they're going to be.

    Who’s amendment is this? ERG or the remainder lot?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,222
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Clause 36, this one will be where the Gov't is defeated if they're going to be.

    Who’s amendment is this? ERG or the remainder lot?
    ERG I think
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,180
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Clause 36, this one will be where the Gov't is defeated if they're going to be.

    Who’s amendment is this? ERG or the remainder lot?
    ERG I think
    Ta.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,417
    edited July 2018
    I don’t remember anything on the Champs Elysée last night. Mind you we were a bit away from the arc de triumph. The flares were rather off putting to those of a British sensibility however,

    Equally 20 years ago no one had a video camera attached to their body the way everyone does nowadays.
  • LordOfReasonLordOfReason Posts: 457

    TMay doesn't have a plan
    ERG don't have a plan
    Tory Remainers don't have a plan
    Labour doesn't have a plan
    The Lib Dems don't have a plan
    If the SNP have a plan I certainly don't know what it is
    I#'m starting to doubt the E Commission have a plan, just so far they haven't needed one

    Indeed - nailed it
    Excuse me. I have a plan. Or at least There is a plan I know of. It’s about time we started paying serious attention to it.

    There’s a bright and eloquent leaver called Hannan who for many years has argued for a Brexit that keeps us in the CU.

    You could dismiss that in an instant saying EU would never agree to it.

    But why wouldn’t they? When you dissect down into the detail of their reasoning, and contrast with their better suggestion...

    You could dismiss that in an instant saying ERG would never agree to it.

    But why wouldn’t they? When you dissect down into the detail of their reasoning, and contrast with their better suggestion...

    After all Hannah’s a staunch and rational as leavers come, and he’s bought into it. Anyone got any detail on how Hannan understands it working?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161

    TMay doesn't have a plan
    ERG don't have a plan
    Tory Remainers don't have a plan
    Labour doesn't have a plan
    The Lib Dems don't have a plan
    If the SNP have a plan I certainly don't know what it is
    I#'m starting to doubt the E Commission have a plan, just so far they haven't needed one

    Indeed - nailed it
    Excuse me. I have a plan. Or at least There is a plan I know of. It’s about time we started paying serious attention to it.

    There’s a bright and eloquent leaver called Hannan who for many years has argued for a Brexit that keeps us in the CU.

    You could dismiss that in an instant saying EU would never agree to it.

    But why wouldn’t they? When you dissect down into the detail of their reasoning, and contrast with their better suggestion...

    You could dismiss that in an instant saying ERG would never agree to it.

    But why wouldn’t they? When you dissect down into the detail of their reasoning, and contrast with their better suggestion...

    After all Hannah’s a staunch and rational as leavers come, and he’s bought into it. Anyone got any detail on how Hannan understands it working?
    Just be dismissed tonight in the HOC vote. Not an option anymore
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    edited July 2018
    3 majority that is 305-302
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,757
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Off topic, but has ANY major UK TV news outlet covered the enormous riots in France following the World Cup win?

    A flavour on my twitter feed:

    twitter.com/NBbreaking/status/1018624699360784384

    twitter.com/NBbreaking/status/1018622625558466561

    twitter.com/NBbreaking/status/1018621535437950976

    Google it up and some of the videos are terrifying.

    This is different to the rowdy exuberance I saw (in St Tropez), following France's World Cup win in 1998. Then it was genuine good spirits, if slightly unnerving.

    This week people in France DIED and there was a breakdown of civil order in several city centres. Riots were nationwide.

    Doesn't it happen every summer in France...its their national summer sport.
    They are always burning cars, but this - from what I've seen - was something special. Fatalities, huge scale, 1000s of riot police. Nasty.

    France, for all the skill of their excellent football side, is a very troubled and divided nation. In a way the racial and religious make-up of the squad only underlined that.
    Though the fatalities were not riot related. One was a fifty year old man who broke his neck jumping into a canal to celebrate, the other was a driver who became over excited at the victory and hit a tree.

    But I agree, Frogs are a bit exciteable. not like English people:

    https://twitter.com/Muqadaam/status/1005717502792478720?s=19
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    So the rebels need about 13 on board. We'll see...

    Which set of rebels is that. This is getting so confusing ;)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,754

    TMay doesn't have a plan
    ERG don't have a plan
    Tory Remainers don't have a plan
    Labour doesn't have a plan
    The Lib Dems don't have a plan
    If the SNP have a plan I certainly don't know what it is
    I#'m starting to doubt the E Commission have a plan, just so far they haven't needed one

    Indeed - nailed it
    Excuse me. I have a plan. Or at least There is a plan I know of. It’s about time we started paying serious attention to it.

    There’s a bright and eloquent leaver called Hannan who for many years has argued for a Brexit that keeps us in the CU.

    You could dismiss that in an instant saying EU would never agree to it.

    But why wouldn’t they? When you dissect down into the detail of their reasoning, and contrast with their better suggestion...

    You could dismiss that in an instant saying ERG would never agree to it.

    But why wouldn’t they? When you dissect down into the detail of their reasoning, and contrast with their better suggestion...

    After all Hannah’s a staunch and rational as leavers come, and he’s bought into it. Anyone got any detail on how Hannan understands it working?
    You’ve got the wrong end of the stick somewhere.
    https://twitter.com/danieljhannan/status/901566330108817410?s=21
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    He is my MP and he and David Jones in the next door constituency are at loggerheads.

    He may well lose his seat to a Corbynite unfortunately
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    MTimT said:

    So the rebels need about 13 on board. We'll see...

    Which set of rebels is that. This is getting so confusing ;)
    They are remainers voting with Labour against the ERG amendment (which the Gov't backs)

    Apparently 11 of them, maybe 12, not 13!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,222
    A whole bunch passed without division just then - how many of the ERG amendments are now accepted ?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,180
    edited July 2018
    Deleted, I guess this is what the government gave into the ERG over.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,222
    tlg86 said:

    Did the government lose that vote?

    Don't think so.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    edited July 2018

    He is my MP and he and David Jones in the next door constituency are at loggerheads.

    He may well lose his seat to a Corbynite unfortunately
    He won't be the only one if the Tories keep this up.
    They almost lost a vote which would have put them back to their preferred position, but didn't because they caved in to one set of rebels.
    But another set of rebels nearly thwarted their u-turn...
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,826
    tlg86 said:

    Did the government lose that vote?

    No, it was one of the amendments they announced they’d back today.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Pulpstar said:

    A whole bunch passed without division just then - how many of the ERG amendments are now accepted ?

    I think there were four amendments, prompting two divisions. So two through on the nod - the Irish sea border and...?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    dixiedean said:

    He is my MP and he and David Jones in the next door constituency are at loggerheads.

    He may well lose his seat to a Corbynite unfortunately
    He won't be the only one if the Tories keep this up.
    They almost lost a vote which would have put them back to their preferred position, but didn't because they caved in to one set of rebels.
    But another set of rebels nearly thwarted their u-turn...
    Its a farce Dixie - bit like the Spurs goalie in the World Cup Final
  • chloechloe Posts: 308

    chloe said:

    The government deserves to lose the next election to a Corbyn landslide,having led us to a high risk hardline Brexit.

    A hard Brexit is what he wants
    Maybe but voters won’t blame Corbyn for the turbulence. It might work out fine but Brexiteers have not convinced me. They said it would all be so easy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,222
    The Gov't might have hoped they'd lose amendment 36, as it is one Barnier certainly won't agree to.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Let's face it, if the gov't wins every vote the whips will think they have paid a reasonable price
  • LordOfReasonLordOfReason Posts: 457

    TMay doesn't have a plan
    ERG don't have a plan
    Tory Remainers don't have a plan
    Labour doesn't have a plan
    The Lib Dems don't have a plan
    If the SNP have a plan I certainly don't know what it is
    I#'m starting to doubt the E Commission have a plan, just so far they haven't needed one

    Indeed - nailed it
    Excuse me. I have a plan. Or at least There is a plan I know of. It’s about time we started paying serious attention to it.

    There’s a bright and eloquent leaver called Hannan who for many years has argued for a Brexit that keeps us in the CU.

    You could dismiss that in an instant saying EU would never agree to it.

    But why wouldn’t they? When you dissect down into the detail of their reasoning, and contrast with their better suggestion...

    You could dismiss that in an instant saying ERG would never agree to it.

    But why wouldn’t they? When you dissect down into the detail of their reasoning, and contrast with their better suggestion...

    After all Hannah’s a staunch and rational as leavers come, and he’s bought into it. Anyone got any detail on how Hannan understands it working?
    You’ve got the wrong end of the stick somewhere.
    https://twitter.com/danieljhannan/status/901566330108817410?s=21
    Based on that evidence, I was mistaken.

    Did Dan the Man flipflop on that one?
  • 607 MPs voting. Even accounting for Tellers, Speaker, Sinn Fein etc that's an awful lot of MPs not taking part in such an important vote...and now they want an early Summer Holiday too? Bonkers.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,826
    edited July 2018
    This goes to show why the Article 50 process (deliberately, perhaps?) is flawed.

    Really there should be two years for negotiation followed by a year of legislative implementation. A government could get its negotiations hammered out before putting the legislation on the table to implement the deal. As it is we have a moving feast of Commons votes dictating in some ways the governments negotiating position.

    I suspect it’s not designed that way to make it even harder to leave. Of course we could have spent the pre-Article 50 phase trying to persuade the European Parliament to extend the period, but then I suspect there wouldn’t have been consensus. Would be interesting in future to see if the government took soundings though (I’m guessing no).
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Pulpstar said:

    The Gov't might have hoped they'd lose amendment 36, as it is one Barnier certainly won't agree to.

    I actually agree with the government that it is consistent with the white paper. EU to collect ta
    rriffs at EU rates and pass this on; however they will not collect at UK rates (if higher). If UK rates are lower or higher the importer would pay or reclaim the difference from HMRC.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161

    Pulpstar said:

    A whole bunch passed without division just then - how many of the ERG amendments are now accepted ?

    I think there were four amendments, prompting two divisions. So two through on the nod - the Irish sea border and...?
    Am glad the Irish sea border went through. That was just common sense
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    Saltire said:
    Already reported and he is my MP.
  • chloechloe Posts: 308

    This goes to show why the Article 50 process (deliberately, perhaps?) is flawed.

    Really there should be two years for negotiation followed by a year of legislative implementation. A government could get its negotiations hammered out before putting the legislation on the table to implement the deal. As it is we have a moving feast of Commons votes dictating in some ways the governments negotiating position.

    I suspect it’s not designed that way to make it even harder to leave. Of course we could have spent the pre-Article 50 phase trying to persuade the European Parliament to extend the period, but then I suspect there wouldn’t have been consensus. Would be interesting in future to see if the government took soundings though (I’m guessing no).

    We could have invoked Article 50 when we knew what we wanted from the negotiations.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Saltire said:
    Yebbut, he resigned to be a Soubryette.
    Not an ERGer.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,222
    edited July 2018
    Another SNP amendment with a huge majority against coming up.

    Lol, SNP denied a chance to have a whopping majority.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    I see there is an increasing mood among some a Remainers for a no deal Brexit, because there is no other way for the country to understand the real impact of their vote.

    I think this is dangerous.

    Chaos, once unleashed, never seems to revert to calm. Remember the idea that Corbyn would be a flash in the pan?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161

    Saltire said:
    Yebbut, he resigned to be a Soubryette.
    Not an ERGer.
    And lose his seat more likely. He is my MP and is in a very marginal constituency with a Corbynista candidate for labour
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,222
    Here's Meeks' MP up now. Passed on the nod - another ERG amendment,
  • chloechloe Posts: 308

    I see there is an increasing mood among some a Remainers for a no deal Brexit, because there is no other way for the country to understand the real impact of their vote.

    I think this is dangerous.

    Chaos, once unleashed, never seems to revert to calm. Remember the idea that Corbyn would be a flash in the pan?

    It is dangerous but at least we can rejoin in a few years time when the promised land of cheap food and empty hospitals isn’t reached.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,222
    Wonder how close this one will be. Another ERG Amendment I think but not sure what 73 says.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    geoffw said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Goes onto PB
    Sees the Brexit loons are trying to wreck the country.
    Goes back to reading about asteroid mining.

    +1.

    Only in my case I'm going back to my garden.
    Worry not Candide, all is for the best in this best of possible worlds.
    Well my garden is doing great. I can do nothing about the fact that we have a government in charge that makes Noddy look like Einstein.

    And now - for some watering. (I have a water butt.)
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    TMay doesn't have a plan
    ERG don't have a plan
    Tory Remainers don't have a plan
    Labour doesn't have a plan
    The Lib Dems don't have a plan
    If the SNP have a plan I certainly don't know what it is
    I#'m starting to doubt the E Commission have a plan, just so far they haven't needed one

    Indeed - nailed it
    Excuse me. I have a plan. Or at least There is a plan I know of. It’s about time we started paying serious attention to it.

    There’s a bright and eloquent leaver called Hannan who for many years has argued for a Brexit that keeps us in the CU.

    You could dismiss that in an instant saying EU would never agree to it.

    But why wouldn’t they? When you dissect down into the detail of their reasoning, and contrast with their better suggestion...

    You could dismiss that in an instant saying ERG would never agree to it.

    But why wouldn’t they? When you dissect down into the detail of their reasoning, and contrast with their better suggestion...

    After all Hannah’s a staunch and rational as leavers come, and he’s bought into it. Anyone got any detail on how Hannan understands it working?
    You’ve got the wrong end of the stick somewhere.
    https://twitter.com/danieljhannan/status/901566330108817410?s=21
    Based on that evidence, I was mistaken.

    Did Dan the Man flipflop on that one?
    I think he wanted EEA?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    chloe said:

    I see there is an increasing mood among some a Remainers for a no deal Brexit, because there is no other way for the country to understand the real impact of their vote.

    I think this is dangerous.

    Chaos, once unleashed, never seems to revert to calm. Remember the idea that Corbyn would be a flash in the pan?

    It is dangerous but at least we can rejoin in a few years time when the promised land of cheap food and empty hospitals isn’t reached.
    TM seems to be the great survivor. Why she would want to be in this chaos I have no idea
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,307
    McCain:
    “No prior president has ever abased himself more abjectly before a tyrant.”
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Pulpstar said:

    Wonder how close this one will be. Another ERG Amendment I think but not sure what 73 says.

    It's on VAT, to keep up out of the VAT area.

    I am not sure if the gov't is accepting it. I don't think it is consistent with the white paper, but I have lost track

    There being no equivalent to a VAT deal with the US, I do not see the objection personally
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Cyclefree said:

    geoffw said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Goes onto PB
    Sees the Brexit loons are trying to wreck the country.
    Goes back to reading about asteroid mining.

    +1.

    Only in my case I'm going back to my garden.
    Worry not Candide, all is for the best in this best of possible worlds.
    Well my garden is doing great. I can do nothing about the fact that we have a government in charge that makes Noddy look like Einstein.

    And now - for some watering. (I have a water butt.)
    It's absolutely pouring down where I am, thunder storms
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Pulpstar said:

    Wonder how close this one will be. Another ERG Amendment I think but not sure what 73 says.

    It is the VAT one. Can't keep up with what the hell it is exactly though.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    Cyclefree said:

    geoffw said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Goes onto PB
    Sees the Brexit loons are trying to wreck the country.
    Goes back to reading about asteroid mining.

    +1.

    Only in my case I'm going back to my garden.
    Worry not Candide, all is for the best in this best of possible worlds.
    Well my garden is doing great. I can do nothing about the fact that we have a government in charge that makes Noddy look like Einstein.

    And now - for some watering. (I have a water butt.)
    We have had a day of rain on and off
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Oh May, what is the point of finally taking a stand, recognising you cannot get all sides to agree, only to alter position anyway?
  • chloechloe Posts: 308

    chloe said:

    I see there is an increasing mood among some a Remainers for a no deal Brexit, because there is no other way for the country to understand the real impact of their vote.

    I think this is dangerous.

    Chaos, once unleashed, never seems to revert to calm. Remember the idea that Corbyn would be a flash in the pan?

    It is dangerous but at least we can rejoin in a few years time when the promised land of cheap food and empty hospitals isn’t reached.
    TM seems to be the great survivor. Why she would want to be in this chaos I have no idea
    She had a deal for a softer Brexit, maybe the EU would not have accepted it, but surely it is even less likely now she has given into the hardliners who cannot compromise and just want to crash out.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,826
    chloe said:

    This goes to show why the Article 50 process (deliberately, perhaps?) is flawed.

    Really there should be two years for negotiation followed by a year of legislative implementation. A government could get its negotiations hammered out before putting the legislation on the table to implement the deal. As it is we have a moving feast of Commons votes dictating in some ways the governments negotiating position.

    I suspect it’s not designed that way to make it even harder to leave. Of course we could have spent the pre-Article 50 phase trying to persuade the European Parliament to extend the period, but then I suspect there wouldn’t have been consensus. Would be interesting in future to see if the government took soundings though (I’m guessing no).

    We could have invoked Article 50 when we knew what we wanted from the negotiations.
    Well yes, but even then we couldn’t guarantee we’d get what we wanted.

    Whichever way you look at it, it’s clear that it wasn’t drafted with practicality in mind. Which given the state of mind of the European Project isn’t exactly a surprise.
  • Theresa May really did mess up with that snap election last year. She's completely boxed in from all sides and it's all her own fault.
  • Think the government could lose this one
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    chloe said:

    chloe said:

    I see there is an increasing mood among some a Remainers for a no deal Brexit, because there is no other way for the country to understand the real impact of their vote.

    I think this is dangerous.

    Chaos, once unleashed, never seems to revert to calm. Remember the idea that Corbyn would be a flash in the pan?

    It is dangerous but at least we can rejoin in a few years time when the promised land of cheap food and empty hospitals isn’t reached.
    TM seems to be the great survivor. Why she would want to be in this chaos I have no idea
    She had a deal for a softer Brexit, maybe the EU would not have accepted it, but surely it is even less likely now she has given into the hardliners who cannot compromise and just want to crash out.
    I agree - we are heading for a big bust up with the EU. The danger for the EU is that public opinion may well turn against the EU in a big way and we all lose
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    kle4 said:

    Oh May, what is the point of finally taking a stand, recognising you cannot get all sides to agree, only to alter position anyway?

    Never a truer word spoken.

    I thought she had at least tried to lead a week ago at Chequers.

    Now she has pissed of nearly everyone .

    Time for a new leader to step forward , in the countries interest.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,002
    kle4 said:

    Oh May, what is the point of finally taking a stand, recognising you cannot get all sides to agree, only to alter position anyway?

    Has surely to be the key question of the past few days.
  • chloechloe Posts: 308

    chloe said:

    This goes to show why the Article 50 process (deliberately, perhaps?) is flawed.

    Really there should be two years for negotiation followed by a year of legislative implementation. A government could get its negotiations hammered out before putting the legislation on the table to implement the deal. As it is we have a moving feast of Commons votes dictating in some ways the governments negotiating position.

    I suspect it’s not designed that way to make it even harder to leave. Of course we could have spent the pre-Article 50 phase trying to persuade the European Parliament to extend the period, but then I suspect there wouldn’t have been consensus. Would be interesting in future to see if the government took soundings though (I’m guessing no).

    We could have invoked Article 50 when we knew what we wanted from the negotiations.
    Well yes, but even then we couldn’t guarantee we’d get what we wanted.

    Whichever way you look at it, it’s clear that it wasn’t drafted with practicality in mind. Which given the state of mind of the European Project isn’t exactly a surprise.
    Of course, but the EU don’t expect countries to go rogue rather than work to reform from within, with alliances and compromises.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    Yorkcity said:

    kle4 said:

    Oh May, what is the point of finally taking a stand, recognising you cannot get all sides to agree, only to alter position anyway?

    Never a truer word spoken.

    I thought she had at least tried to lead a week ago at Chequers.

    Now she has pissed of nearly everyone .

    Time for a new leader to step forward , in the countries interest.
    But who and how
This discussion has been closed.