A hard Brexit with Boris as PM would lead to a second referendum. That is a Scottish one. I cannot see the no vote winning this one. If Scotland goes then NI will look for its own deal and maybe Wales. I hate conspiracy theories but wonder why it is the Airbus Welsh factory that was picked on.
The English Tories may well accept the break up of the UK as the price for their Brexit.
Actually the polls fail to support that.
The latest YouGov has an astonishing 31% of Scots thinking the Chequers Deal is too soft and gives too much to the EU, compared to just 20% who think it is too hard a Brexit plan with 13% thinking it about right.
Wales of course voted Leave anyway and NI still voted DUP even after Brexit
Hard Brexit is an abstract concept that voters - quite understandably - do not currently get. As the Tories have now to all intents and purposes voted against a transition period, we are now only months away from its reality biting. Let’s see what the polling is like when it actually starts to bite.
No they 'quite understandably' do not get it to diehard Remainers like yourself who are astonished that the plebs could even consider things like the sovereignty of their nation and control of its borders to be more important than what you see as the economic apocalypse of Brexit.
In reality though the precise nature of the Mogg amendments on customs to the Chequers Deal (which the polling is clear most voters thought too soft) are unlikely to make that much difference to it overall and its impact on a transition deal
What a silly post. If you think voters understand clearly what a Hard Brexit involves I’m afraid you are in for a very big shock. They’ve been told it’s all Project Fear.
As for a transition deal, tonight’s vote killed it because it killed the NI backstop (unless the VAT vote was for something that is illegal).
They understand the Brexit they voted for which was to regain sovereignty and bring immigration under control. The transition period whether it occurs or not will just be a transition to hard Brexit as there is no way the EU will agree a FTA by December 2020
Transition periods can be extended. That’s why it was so important to get to the first one.
They were told reducing immigration was cost free. That there would be no downsides. Good luck with that.
As I said before, I think May's autobiography will be fascinating reading. What was she really thinking? Whenever we can seem to discern some rationale behind her choices, she negates it with her next move.
It should be a fascinating glimpse. Sadly I fear she will switch between different ghost writers from chapter to chapter, so we'll have no more clue than now why she seems to shift position all the time.
If we go to No Deal, you want someone with cullions and cunning and a bit of funny rhetoric to buck us all up. Because life will be TUFF for a few years. I suspect Boris would win a GE against Corbyn in 2022.
Am ss your prediction is never put to the test!
Wrong, Boris was by far the most popular choice to succeed May in the Delta poll at the weekend, double the total of Mogg and Davidson who were second and 10% ahead of Javid who was third
That, plus the damage that no-deal Brexit would wreak upon the popularity of senior Brexiteers. To get into this position Boris would need the support of MPs (rather unlikely), the support of party members in the event there were a rival candidate (not impossible, depends on who he is up against) and the support of voters (in this scenario, quite unlikely unless the opposition manage complete self-destruction themselves).
Tbh I think his stint in the Foreign Office killed his chances as far as gaining enough support among Tory MPs is concerned. He’s been unpopular among the public for sometime now already.
Utter rubbish. If Tory MPs think Boris will beat Corbyn they will pick him and if he was so 'unpopular' with the public how come he is the only Tory EVER to win the London Mayoralty not once but TWICE and how come it was when he took over the de facto leadership of the LEAVE campaign it moved from narrowly behind to beating the Remain campaign across the UK?
Goodness me you’re tetchy tonight.
Boris narrowly won his London Mayor terms because he seemed to be on the liberal wing of the Tory Party. This has been blown out of the water by him subsequently coming out for hard Brexit and made an oaf of himself abroad. He wouldn’t have a cat in hells chance now and would be unlikely to do any better than Zac Goldsmith.
As I said before, I think May's autobiography will be fascinating reading. What was she really thinking? Whenever we can seem to discern some rationale behind her choices, she negates it with her next move.
It should be a fascinating glimpse. Sadly I fear she will switch between different ghost writers from chapter to chapter, so we'll have no more clue than now why she seems to shift position all the time.
If we go to No Deal, you want someone with cullions and cunning and a bit of funny rhetoric to buck us all up. Because life will be TUFF for a few years. I suspect Boris would win a GE against Corbyn in 2022.
ong the public. I'm also confident that, in the event of Hard Brexit, Boris will be getting nowhere near the Conservative leadership as he will hardly be flavour of the day among Tory MPs. But I hope to goodness your prediction is never put to the test!
Wrong, Boris was by far the most popular choice to succeed May in the Delta poll at the weekend, double the total of Mogg and Davidson who were second and 10% ahead of Javid who was third
That, plus the damage that no-deal Brexit would wreak upon the popularity of senior Brexiteers. Tmanage complete self-destruction themselves).
Tbh I think his stint in the Foreign Office killed his chances as far as gaining enough support among Tory MPs is concerned. He’s been unpopular among the public for sometime now already.
?
nt in that campaign that his popularity started to tank.
Bullshit, as the latest Tory Leadership poll shows he is by far and away the most popular contender with the public.
He may not be popular with left liberal diehard Remainers like you thanks to his involvement in the EU referendum but less us not forget it was Leave that won it
It’s not ‘bullshit’. 16% does not equal ‘popular.’ How preferred he is in comparison to other Tory leadership contenders is irrelevant. What matters how popular Boris himself is with the public, and 16% is a terrible figure.
This April 2018 Times poll shows that more voters rate Corbyn (!!!!!!) as a potential PM than Boris:
As I said before, I think May's autobiography will be fascinating reading. What was she really thinking? Whenever we can seem to discern some rationale behind her choices, she negates it with her next move.
It should be a fascinating glimpse. Sadly I fear she will switch between different ghost writers from chapter to chapter, so we'll have no more clue than now why she seems to shift position all the time.
If we go to No Deal, you want someone with cullions and cunning and a bit of funny rhetoric to buck us all up. Because life will be TUFF for a few years. I suspect Boris would win a GE against Corbyn in 2022.
Am very confident that you're wrong re the electoral outcome in this scenario, as Boris already seems to be a spent force among the public. I'm also confident that, in the event of Hard Brexit, Boris will be getting nowhere near the Conservative leadership as he will hardly be flavour of the day among Tory MPs. But I hope to goodness your prediction is never put to the test!
Wrong, Boris was by far the most popular choice to succeed May in the Delta poll at the weekend, double the total of Mogg and Davidson who were second and 10% ahead of Javid who was third
DOUBLE the total for the second place candidates, one of whom was Mogg
That doesn’t make Boris look popular, it just makes the other candidates look even worse....
You could have said the same about Corbyn in 2015, though Burnham actually led Labour leadership polls then
People hardly knew who Corbyn was back then, Boris has been a well known figure amongst the public since at least 2009.
Yes and he has one a Mayoral election and an EU referendum in that time, he is the most electorally successful politician still in frontline UK politics today, Corbyn may have done better than expect but less us not forget he still lost his only general election in 2017
So? Blair was electorally successfully, that doesn’t take away from the fact he’s unpopular today. What matters is how Boris is regarded now, not how he was regarded in the past.
Correct. Which is why not calling Article 50 was the UK's BATNA (best alternative to negotiated agreement). As incidentally I pointed out at the time on this forum to the universal derision of Leavers ("glad you're not the negotiator")
A "BATNA" by definition has to be an alternative - i.e. the position has to lie within the policy space. You have to give the "don't trigger Article 50" card up to commence negotiations - the EU were pretty strong on no pre-negotiation negotiations, for the obvious reason that otherwise you'd be better not to trigger at all.
Given the referendum result, but prior to triggering Article 50, it seems clear to me that the government did not have a realistic prospect of stating "we believe the UK is better-off inside the EU, for some definition of 'better-off' that 52% of voters foolishly disagree with, so we refuse to start proceedings to leave the EU" - at least, not without the cost of triggering a constitutional crisis and without severe political repercussions. A more creative alternative might be "we will open negotiations but without triggering Article 50 as that deprives us of our trump card"... and then try to somehow force the EU into meaningful pre-negotiations. How though? Perhaps by announcing a destructive campaign of empty-chairing or vetoing unless some talks begin, though the spoilt brat strategy has obvious disadvantages for starting sensitive negotiations with a close partner.
Given the referendum result, but after triggering Article 50, the policy space is now smaller because "don't trigger" is no longer an option. Within that reduced space, what is the BATNA then? Whatever it is, "make no preparations for no-deal so that it would be an utter disaster" doesn't jump out at me as candidate Numero Uno.
Taken before Boris resigned in opposition to Chequers and the Survation poll last summer had the Tories getting a higher voteshare against Corbyn under Boris than any other Tory so yes popular with voters too.
Given that poll has Corbyn with a huge net negative anyway and Davidson, a Tory, with the only net positive it means little on a Corbyn v Boris battle in any case
A hard Brexit with Boris as PM would lead to a second referendum. That is a Scottish one. I cannot see the no vote winning this one. If Scotland goes then NI will look for its own deal and maybe Wales. I hate conspiracy theories but wonder why it is the Airbus Welsh factory that was picked on.
The English Tories may well accept the break up of the UK as the price for their Brexit.
Actually the polls fail to support that.
The latest YouGov has an astonishing 31% of Scots thinking the Chequers Deal is too soft and gives too much to the EU, compared to just 20% who think it is too hard a Brexit plan with 13% thinking it about right.
Wales of course voted Leave anyway and NI still voted DUP even after Brexit
Hard Brexit is an abstract concept that voters - quite understandably - do not currently get. As the Tories have now to all intents and purposes voted against a transition period, we are now only months away from its reality biting. Let’s see what the polling is like when it actually starts to bite.
No they 'quite understandably' do not get it to diehard Remainers like yourself who are astonished that the plebs could even consider things like the sovereignty of their nation and control of its borders to be more important than what you see as the economic apocalypse of Brexit.
In reality though the precise nature of the Mogg amendments on customs to the Chequers Deal (which the polling is clear most voters thought too soft) are unlikely to make that much difference to it overall and its impact on a transition deal
What a silly post. If yoething that is illegal).
They understand the Brexit they voted for which was to regain sovereignty and bring immigration under control. The transition period whether it occurs or not will just be a transition to hard Brexit as there is no way the EU will agree a FTA by December 2020
Transition periods can be extended. That’s why it was so important to get to the first one.
They were told reducing immigration was cost free. That there would be no downsides. Good luck with that.
They were told they were going to get reduced immigration, end of conversation. The Remain campaign also told them if they tried to end cut immigration and get Brexit it would also be an economic apocalypse so again bullshit
As I said before, I think May's autobiography will be fascinating reading. What was she really thinking? Whenever we can seem to discern some rationale behind her choices, she negates it with her next move.
It should be a fascinating glimpse. Sadly I fear she will switch between different ghost writers from chapter to chapter, so we'll have no more clue than now why she seems to shift position all the time.
Wrong, Boris was by far the most popular choice to succeed May in the Delta poll at the weekend, double the total of Mogg and Davidson who were second and 10% ahead of Javid who was third
That, plus the damge complete self-destruction themselves).
Tbh I think his stint in the Foreign Office killed his chances as far as gaining enough support among Tory MPs is concerned. He’s been unpopular among the public for sometime now already.
Utter rubbish. If Tory MPs think Boris will beat Corbyn they will pick him and if he was so 'unpopular' with the public how come he is the only Tory EVER to win the London Mayoralty not once but TWICE and how come it was when he took over the de facto leadership of the LEAVE campaign it moved from narrowly behind to beating the Remain campaign across the UK?
Goodness me you’re tetchy tonight.
Boris narrowly won his London Mayor terms because he seemed to be on the liberal wing of the Tory Party. This has been blown out of the water by him subsequently coming out for hard Brexit and made an oaf of himself abroad. He wouldn’t have a cat in hells chance now and would be unlikely to do any better than Zac Goldsmith.
Rubbish. It was under Boris that Leave won the EU referendum across the UK with a higher number of votes than any party has ever achieved in a UK general election
As I said before, I think May's autobiography will be fascinating reading. What was she really thinking? Whenever we can seem to discern some rationale behind her choices, she negates it with her next move.
It should be a fascinating glimpse. Sadly I fear she will switch between different ghost writers from chapter to chapter, so we'll have no more clue than now why she seems to shift position all the time.
If we go to No Deal, you want someone with cullions and cunning and a bit of funny rhetoric to buck us all up. Because life will be TUFF for a few years. I suspect Boris would win a GE against Corbyn in 2022.
ong the public. I'm also confident that, in the event of Hard Brexit, Boris will be getting nowhere near the Conservative leadership as he will hardly be flavour of the day among Tory MPs. But I hope to goodness your prediction is never put to the test!
Wrong, Boris was by far the most popular choice to succeed May in the Delta poll at the weekend, double the total of Mogg and Davidson who were second and 10% ahead of Javid who was third
nt in that campaign that his popularity started to tank.
Bullshit, as the latest Tory Leadership poll shows he is by far and away the most popular contender with the public.
He may not be popular with left liberal diehard Remainers like you thanks to his involvement in the EU referendum but less us not forget it was Leave that won it
It’s not ‘bullshit’. 16% does not equal ‘popular.’ How preferred he is in comparison to other Tory leadership contenders is irrelevant. What matters how popular Boris himself is with the public, and 16% is a terrible figure.
This April 2018 Times poll shows that more voters rate Corbyn (!!!!!!) as a potential PM than Boris:
As I said before, I think May's autobiography will be fascinating reading. What was she really thinking? Whenever we can seem to discern some rationale behind her choices, she negates it with her next move.
It should be a fascinating glimpse. Sadly I fear she will switch between different ghost writers from chapter to chapter, so we'll have no more clue than now why she seems to shift position all the time.
If we go to No Deal, you want someone with cullions and cunning and a bit of funny rhetoric to buck us all up. Because life will be TUFF for a few years. I suspect Boris would win a GE against Corbyn in 2022.
Am very confident that you're wrong re the electoral outcome in this scenario, as Boris already seems to be a spent force among the public. I'm also confident that, in the event of Hard Brexit, Boris will be getting nowhere near the Conservative leadership as he will hardly be flavour of the day among Tory MPs. But I hope to goodness your prediction is never put to the test!
Wrong, Boris was by far the most popular choice to succeed May in the Delta poll at the weekend, double the total of Mogg and Davidson who were second and 10% ahead of Javid who was third
DOUBLE the total for the second place candidates, one of whom was Mogg
That doesn’t make Boris look popular, it just makes the other candidates look even worse....
You could have said the same about Corbyn in 2015, though Burnham actually led Labour leadership polls then
People hardly knew who Corbyn was back then, Boris has been a well known figure amongst the public since at least 2009.
Yes and he has one a Mayoral election and an EU referendum in that time, he is the most electorally successful politician still in frontline UK politics today, Corbyn may have done better than expect but less us not forget he still lost his only general election in 2017
So? Blair was electorally successfully, that doesn’t take away from the fact he’s unpopular today. What matters is how Boris is regarded now, not how he was regarded in the past.
Boris has a far higher number of supporters today than Blair does, as shown by the fact Leave won under his leadership against the likes of Blair
As I said before, I think May's autobiography will be fascinating reading. What was she really thinking? Whenever we can seem to discern some rationale behind her choices, she negates it with her next move.
It should be a fascinating glimpse. Sadly I fear she will switch between different ghost writers from chapter to chapter, so we'll have no more clue than now why she seems to shift position all the time.
Wrong, Boris was by far the most popular choice to succeed May in the Delta poll at the weekend, double the total of Mogg and Davidson who were second and 10% ahead of Javid who was third
That, plus the damge complete self-destruction themselves).
Tbh I think his stint in the Foreign Office killed his chances as far as gaining enough support among Tory MPs is concerned. He’s been unpopular among the public for sometime now already.
Utter rubbish. If Tory MPs think Boris will beat Corbyn they will pick him and if he was so 'unpopular' with the public how come he is the only Tory EVER to win the London Mayoralty not once but TWICE and how come it was when he took over the de facto leadership of the LEAVE campaign it moved from narrowly behind to beating the Remain campaign across the UK?
Goodness me you’re tetchy tonight.
Boris narrowly won his London Mayor terms because he seemed to be on the liberal wing of the Tory Party. This has been blown out of the water by him subsequently coming out for hard Brexit and made an oaf of himself abroad. He wouldn’t have a cat in hells chance now and would be unlikely to do any better than Zac Goldsmith.
Rubbish. It was under Boris that Leave won the EU referendum across the UK with a higher number of votes than any party has ever achieved in a UK general election
So Boris won the referendum? Most Leave voters I know would cite Farage.
@HYUFD Everyone knows that Boris is a hardcore Leaver so the fact that the poll was taken before his resignation is irrelevant. The Survation poll was last summer, so before this April 2018 poll. This is more recent, and shows only 17% of voters thinking Boris has what it takes to be a good PM, so no, he’s not popular with voters. Speaking of 2017, a November 2017 poll showed Boris’s approval ratings declining with both the general public as a whole and Tory voters:
While Boris had a net favourability score of -17 among the general public in early September, this has since diminished to -29, while his net favourability score among Conservative voters has slumped from +35 to +12.
Currently, 28% of the general public have a favourable view of the Foreign Secretary while 57% hold unfavourable ones. Among 2017 Conservative voters, 52% have a favourable view of Boris while 40% hold unfavourable views.
@HYUFD No, it shows that the general public don’t rate Boris very much. That he scores better than other Tory leadership contenders, just reveals that the public rate them even less, not that Boris is popular. I’m not trying to argue that Corbyn is popular, but that simply more voters rate him as a potential PM than they do Boris. Which is what the poll shows.
If we go to No Deal, you want someone with cullions and cunning and a bit of funny rhetoric to buck us all up. Because life will be TUFF for a few years. I suspect Boris would win a GE against Corbyn in 2022.
test!
Wrong, Boris was by far the most popular choice to succeed May in the Delta poll at the weekend, double the total of Mogg and Davidson who were second and 10% ahead of Javid who was third
DOUBLE the total for the second place candidates, one of whom was Mogg
That doesn’t make Boris look popular, it just makes the other candidates look even worse....
You could have said the same about Corbyn in 2015, though Burnham actually led Labour leadership polls then
People hardly knew who Corbyn was back then, Boris has been a well known figure amongst the public since at least 2009.
Yes and he has one a Mayoral election and an EU referendum in that time, he is the most electorally successful politician still in frontline UK politics today, Corbyn may have done better than expect but less us not forget he still lost his only general election in 2017
So? Blair was electorally successfully, that doesn’t take away from the fact he’s unpopular today. What matters is how Boris is regarded now, not how he was regarded in the past.
Boris has a far higher number of supporters today than Blair does, as shown by the fact Leave won under his leadership against the likes of Blair
Leave won two years ago, that is not ‘today.’ Although my point wasn’t whether Blair and Boris have the same amount of support or not, but that past successes do not tell us whether an individual is currently popular.
As I said before, I think May's autobiography will be fascinating reading. What was she really thinking? Whenever we can seem to discern some rationale behind her choices, she negates it with her next move.
It should be a fascinating glimpse. Sadly I fear she will switch between different ghost writers from chapter to chapter, so we'll have no more clue than now why she seems to shift position all the time.
Wrong, Boris was by far the most popular choice to succeed May in the Delta poll at the weekend, double the total of Mogg and Davidson who were second and 10% ahead of Javid who was third
That, plus the damge complete self-destruction themselves).
Tbh I think his stint in the Foreign Office killed his chances as far as gaining enough support among Tory MPs is concerned. He’s been unpopular among the public for sometime now already.
Utter rubbish. If Tory MPs think Boris will beat Corbyn they will pick him and if he was so 'unpopular' with the public how come he is the only Tory EVER to win the London Mayoralty not once but TWICE and how come it was when he took over the de facto leadership of the LEAVE campaign it moved from narrowly behind to beating the Remain campaign across the UK?
Goodness me you’re tetchy tonight.
Boris narrowly won his London Mayor terms because he seemed to be on the liberal wing of the Tory Party. This has been blown out of the water by him subsequently coming out for hard Brexit and made an oaf of himself abroad. He wouldn’t have a cat in hells chance now and would be unlikely to do any better than Zac Goldsmith.
Rubbish. It was under Boris that Leave won the EU referendum across the UK with a higher number of votes than any party has ever achieved in a UK general election
So Boris won the referendum? Most Leave voters I know would cite Farage.
It was Boris and Boris alone who got Leave over 50%
@HYUFD Everyone knows that Boris is a hardcore Leaver so the fact that the poll was taken before his resignation is irrelevant. The Survation poll was last summer, so before this April 2018 poll. This is more recent, and shows only 17% of voters thinking Boris has what it takes to be a good PM, so no, he’s not popular with voters. Speaking of 2017, a November 2017 poll showed Boris’s approval ratings declining with both the general public as a whole and Tory voters:
While Boris had a net favourability score of -17 among the general public in early September, this has since diminished to -29, while his net favourability score among Conservative voters has slumped from +35 to +12.
Currently, 28% of the general public have a favourable view of the Foreign Secretary while 57% hold unfavourable ones. Among 2017 Conservative voters, 52% have a favourable view of Boris while 40% hold unfavourable views.
As long as you have a favourable view with your base, as Boris still does with Tories it does not matter if you have an unfavourable view overall as Trump and Corbyn proved
@HYUFD No, it shows that the general public don’t rate Boris very much. That he scores better than other Tory leadership contenders, just reveals that the public rate them even less, not that Boris is popular. I’m not trying to argue that Corbyn is popular, but that simply more voters rate him as a potential PM than they do Boris. Which is what the poll shows.
Again, bullshit. Corbyn lost the last general election and was trailing most polls until the Chequers Deal when Tory voters went to UKIP, Boris is by far the best candidate to get them back
@HYUFD Everyone knows that Boris is a hardcore Leaver so the fact that the poll was taken before his resignation is irrelevant. The Survation poll was last summer, so before this April 2018 poll. This is more recent, and shows only 17% of voters thinking Boris has what it takes to be a good PM, so no, he’s not popular with voters. Speaking of 2017, a November 2017 poll showed Boris’s approval ratings declining with both the general public as a whole and Tory voters:
While Boris had a net favourability score of -17 among the general public in early September, this has since diminished to -29, while his net favourability score among Conservative voters has slumped from +35 to +12.
Currently, 28% of the general public have a favourable view of the Foreign Secretary while 57% hold unfavourable ones. Among 2017 Conservative voters, 52% have a favourable view of Boris while 40% hold unfavourable views.
As long as you have a favourable view with your base, as Boris still does with Tories it does not matter if you have an unfavourable view overall as Trump and Corbyn proved
LOL.... The view of Boris, even among Tory voters has declined as the cited YouGov poll shows. 40% unfavourable among your own voters is pretty bad. Trump on the other hand is overwhelmingly popular among those who ID as Republicans.
@HYUFD No, it shows that the general public don’t rate Boris very much. That he scores better than other Tory leadership contenders, just reveals that the public rate them even less, not that Boris is popular. I’m not trying to argue that Corbyn is popular, but that simply more voters rate him as a potential PM than they do Boris. Which is what the poll shows.
Again, bullshit. Corbyn lost the last general election and was trailing most polls until the Chequers Deal when Tory voters went to UKIP, Boris is by far the best candidate to get them back
It’s not bullshit. No one denies Corbyn lost the last GE. But he lost it to May, who as that poll shows is regarded as having what it takes to be PM more so than Corbyn (or indeed Boris). Boris, on the other hand is less well regarded than both May and Corbyn in that poll. Boris may well get those UKIP voters back but he may lose other votes in currently in Tory camp in the process.
@HYUFD Everyone knows that Boris is a hardcore Leaver so the fact that the poll was taken before his resignation is irrelevant. The Survation poll was last summer, so before this April 2018 poll. This is more recent, and shows only 17% of voters thinking Boris has what it takes to be a good PM, so no, he’s not popular with voters. Speaking of 2017, a November 2017 poll showed Boris’s approval ratings declining with both the general public as a whole and Tory voters:
While Boris had a net favourability score of -17 among the general public in early September, this has since diminished to -29, while his net favourability score among Conservative voters has slumped from +35 to +12.
Currently, 28% of the general public have a favourable view of the Foreign Secretary while 57% hold unfavourable ones. Among 2017 Conservative voters, 52% have a favourable view of Boris while 40% hold unfavourable views.
As long as you have a favourable view with your base, as Boris still does with Tories it does not matter if you have an unfavourable view overall as Trump and Corbyn proved
LOL.... The view of Boris, even among Tory voters has declined as the cited YouGov poll shows. 40% unfavourable among your own voters is pretty bad. Trump on the other hand is overwhelmingly popular among those who ID as Republicans.
No not LOL. After Boris' resignation his approval level has rocketed amongst Tories, hence he now leads the polls comfortably with Tory voters as to who should succeed May.
Indeed the latest Delta poll post Chequers and Boris' resignation has Boris ahead on 21% with Davidson second on 8% then Hunt on 6% and Javid on 5%. Amongst Tories Boris leads on 24% to Davidson's 11%, Hunt's 7% and Javid's 4%.
Boris also leads on 21% as to who would make the best next PM with Davidson on 11% in opposition to your earlier cited YouGov poll
@HYUFD Everyone knows that Boris is a hardcore Leaver so the fact that the poll was taken before his resignation is irrelevant. The Survation poll was last summer, so before this April 2018 poll. This is more recent, and shows only 17% of voters thinking Boris has what it takes to be a good PM, so no, he’s not popular with voters. Speaking of 2017, a November 2017 poll showed Boris’s approval ratings declining with both the general public as a whole and Tory voters:
While Boris had a net favourability score of -17 among the general public in early September, this has since diminished to -29, while his net favourability score among Conservative voters has slumped from +35 to +12.
Currently, 28% of the general public have a favourable view of the Foreign Secretary while 57% hold unfavourable ones. Among 2017 Conservative voters, 52% have a favourable view of Boris while 40% hold unfavourable views.
As long as you have a favourable view with your base, as Boris still does with Tories it does not matter if you have an unfavourable view overall as Trump and Corbyn proved
LOL.... The view of Boris, even among Tory voters has declined as the cited YouGov poll shows. 40% unfavourable among your own voters is pretty bad. Trump on the other hand is overwhelmingly popular among those who ID as Republicans.
No not LOL. After Boris' resignation his approval level has rocketed amongst Tories, hence he now leads the polls comfortably with Tory voters as to who should succeed May
Yes LOL. That delatpoll figure of 16% covers voters overall, not just Tory voters. This is what one of the guys at the pollster had to say about Boris’ figures (from The Sun link provided earlier):
Deltapoll director Joe Twyman said: “The fact that Boris tops the list with support from fewer than one in six Brits – and only one in five Tory voters – shows the trouble the Conservatives are in.
“If he is your most popular alternative, then you don’t have a proper alternative.
How has his approval rocketed if he’s only the top choice for one in five Tory voters? If he’s rocketed to there, how low was he regarded among them before?
"There are lots of reasons why the party of government has become the party of anarchy. The whips have forgotten the art of keeping order. The brightest right-wingers have abandoned national politics for global business. A band of fanatics have sold themselves as Conservatives. But one thing above all others explains the current mess: the Conservative Party, or large chunks of it, has forgotten the basic principles of conservatism. It has ceased to think like a conservative party, and it won’t recover its governing ability until it relearns that difficult art."
@HYUFD No, it shows that the general public don’t rate Boris very much. That he scores better than other Tory leadership contenders, just reveals that the public rate them even less, not that Boris is popular. I’m not trying to argue that Corbyn is popular, but that simply more voters rate him as a potential PM than they do Boris. Which is what the poll shows.
Again, bullshit. Corbyn lost the last general election and was trailing most polls until the Chequers Deal when Tory voters went to UKIP, Boris is by far the best candidate to get them back
It’s not bullshit. No one denies Corbyn lost the last GE. But he lost it to May, who as that poll shows is regarded as having what it takes to be PM more so than Corbyn (or indeed Boris). Boris, on the other hand is less well regarded than both May and Corbyn in that poll. Boris may well get those UKIP voters back but he may lose other votes in currently in Tory camp in the process.
No he won't as the new Delta poll shows, your figures are out of date. Tory Remainers who voted against Corbyn in 2017 will do so again next time and Boris will also get the Tory to UKIP defectors back which is the only way they will defeat Corbyn
@HYUFD Everyone knows that Boris is a hardcore Leaver so the fact that the poll was taken before his resignation is irrelevant. The Survation poll was last summer, so before this April 2018 poll. This is more recent, and shows only 17% of voters thinking Boris has what it takes to be a good PM, so no, he’s not popular with voters. Speaking of 2017, a November 2017 poll showed Boris’s approval ratings declining with both the general public as a whole and Tory voters:
While Boris had a net favourability score of -17 among the general public in early September, this has since diminished to -29, while his net favourability score among Conservative voters has slumped from +35 to +12.
Currently, 28% of the general public have a favourable view of the Foreign Secretary while 57% hold unfavourable ones. Among 2017 Conservative voters, 52% have a favourable view of Boris while 40% hold unfavourable views.
As long as you have a favourable view with your base, as Boris still does with Tories it does not matter if you have an unfavourable view overall as Trump and Corbyn proved
LOL.... The view of Boris, even among Tory voters has declined as the cited YouGov poll shows. 40% unfavourable among your own voters is pretty bad. Trump on the other hand is overwhelmingly popular among those who ID as Republicans.
No not LOL. After Boris' resignation his approval level has rocketed amongst Tories, hence he now leads the polls comfortably with Tory voters as to who should succeed May
Yes LOL. That delatpoll figure of 16% covers voters overall, not just Tory voters. This is what one of the guys at the pollster had to say about Boris’ figures (from The Sun link provided earlier): Deltapoll director Joe Twyman said: “The fact that Boris tops the list with support from fewer than one in six Brits – and only one in five Tory voters – shows the trouble the Conservatives are in.
“If he is your most popular alternative, then you don’t have a proper alternative. How has his approval rocketed if he’s only the top choice for one in five Tory voters? If he’s rocketed to there, how low was he regarded among them before?
No LOL you are not even reading the right poll. The latest Delta poll has Boris already up an astonishing 5% in a week to 21% as to who should be next Tory leader and PM and stretching his lead over his rivals.
With Tories Boris is already up to 24% and on more than double his nearest rival
@HYUFD No, it shows that the general public don’t rate Boris very much. That he scores better than other Tory leadership contenders, just reveals that the public rate them even less, not that Boris is popular. I’m not trying to argue that Corbyn is popular, but that simply more voters rate him as a potential PM than they do Boris. Which is what the poll shows.
Again, bullshit. Corbyn lost the last general election and was trailing most polls until the Chequers Deal when Tory voters went to UKIP, Boris is by far the best candidate to get them back
It’s not bullshit. No one denies Corbyn lost the last GE. But he lost it to May, who as that poll shows is regarded as having what it takes to be PM more so than Corbyn (or indeed Boris). Boris, on the other hand is less well regarded than both May and Corbyn in that poll. Boris may well get those UKIP voters back but he may lose other votes in currently in Tory camp in the process.
No he won't as the new Delta poll shows, your figures are out of date. Tory Remainers who voted against Corbyn in 2017 will do so again next time and Boris will also get the Tory to UKIP defectors back which is the only way they will defeat Corbyn
The Delta poll doesn’t show my figures are out of date. It shows that only 1 in 6 voters rate Boris, and only 1 in 5 Tory voters rate him (see previous post). That’s hardly a popular candidate, even among Tories.
"There are lots of reasons why the party of government has become the party of anarchy. The whips have forgotten the art of keeping order. The brightest right-wingers have abandoned national politics for global business. A band of fanatics have sold themselves as Conservatives. But one thing above all others explains the current mess: the Conservative Party, or large chunks of it, has forgotten the basic principles of conservatism. It has ceased to think like a conservative party, and it won’t recover its governing ability until it relearns that difficult art."
The Economist is not a Tory magazine like the Spectator but a classical liberal one and very pro Remain. It has far more in common with Blairites and Orange Book LDs than the right of the Tory Party. It has no clue about the basic tenets of conservatism ie the nation state, the monarchy, law and order etc but instead just wants it to be the political arm of the City and big corporations
@HYUFD No, it shows that the general public don’t rate Boris very much. That he scores better than other Tory leadership contenders, just reveals that the public rate them even less, not that Boris is popular. I’m not trying to argue that Corbyn is popular, but that simply more voters rate him as a potential PM than they do Boris. Which is what the poll shows.
Again, bullshit. Corbyn lost the last general election and was trailing most polls until the Chequers Deal when Tory voters went to UKIP, Boris is by far the best candidate to get them back
It’s not bullshit. No one denies Corbyn lost the last GE. But he lost it to May, who as that poll shows is regarded as having what it takes to be PM more so than Corbyn (or indeed Boris). Boris, on the other hand is less well regarded than both May and Corbyn in that poll. Boris may well get those UKIP voters back but he may lose other votes in currently in Tory camp in the process.
No he won't as the new Delta poll shows, your figures are out of date. Tory Remainers who voted against Corbyn in 2017 will do so again next time and Boris will also get the Tory to UKIP defectors back which is the only way they will defeat Corbyn
The Delta poll doesn’t show my figures are out of date. It shows that only 1 in 6 voters rate Boris, and only 1 in 5 Tory voters rate him (see previous post). That’s hardly a popular candidate, even among Tories.
No that is crap. As no question was asked do you rate him, the question was who do you want to be next Tory leader in which Boris trounces all his rivals with both the Public and Tory voters.
Boris is now the only Tory candidate with the charisma and appeal to the defecting Tory Leavers the Tories need to get out their base and beat Corbyn, if not Boris the Tories likely lose. End of conversation
While Boris had a net favourability score of -17 among the general public in early September, this has since diminished to -29, while his net favourability score among Conservative voters has slumped from +35 to +12.
Currently, 28% of the general public have a favourable view of the Foreign Secretary while 57% hold unfavourable ones. Among 2017 Conservative voters, 52% have a favourable view of Boris while 40% hold unfavourable views.
As long as you have a favourable view with your base, as Boris still does with Tories it does not matter if you have an unfavourable view overall as Trump and Corbyn proved
LOL.... T.
No not LOL. After Boris' resignation his approval level has rocketed amongst Tories, hence he now leads the polls comfortably with Tory voters as to who should succeed May
Yes LOL. That delatpoll figure of 16% covers voters overall, not just Tory voters. This is what one of the guys at the pollster had to say about Boris’ figures (from The Sun link provided earlier): Deltapoll director Joe Twyman said: “The fact that Boris tops the list with support from fewer than one in six Brits – and only one in five Tory voters – shows the trouble the Conservatives are in.
“If he is your most popular alternative, then you don’t have a proper alternative. How has his approval rocketed if he’s only the top choice for one in five Tory voters? If he’s rocketed to there, how low was he regarded among them before?
No LOL you are not even reading the right poll. The latest Delta poll has Boris already up an astonishing 5% in a week to 21% as to who should be next Tory leader and PM and stretching his lead over his rivals.
With Tories Boris is already up to 24% and on more than double his nearest rival
So you’ve provided the link to the wrong poll earlier on then....so you were using a poll that you yourself describe as ‘wrong’ to support your own arguments. Well.....
Even on the figures you provide 21% of overall voters is terrible and certainly does not indicate popularity.
@HYUFD No, it shows that the general public don’t rate Boris very much. That he scores better than other Tory leadership contenders, just reveals that the public rate them even less, not that Boris is popular. I’m not trying to argue that Corbyn is popular, but that simply more voters rate him as a potential PM than they do Boris. Which is what the poll shows.
Again, bullshit. Corbyn lost the last general election and was trailing most polls until the Chequers Deal when Tory voters went to UKIP, Boris is by far the best candidate to get them back
It’s not bullshit. No one denies Corbyn lost the last GE. But he lost it to May, who as that poll shows is regarded as having what it takes to be PM more so than Corbyn (or indeed Boris). Boris, on the other hand is less well regarded than both May and Corbyn in that poll. Boris may well get those UKIP voters back but he may lose other votes in currently in Tory camp in the process.
No he won't as the new Delta poll shows, your figures are out of date. Tory Remainers who voted against Corbyn in 2017 will do so again next time and Boris will also get the Tory to UKIP defectors back which is the only way they will defeat Corbyn
The Delta poll doesn’t show my figures are out of date. It shows that only 1 in 6 voters rate Boris, and only 1 in 5 Tory voters rate him (see previous post). That’s hardly a popular candidate, even among Tories.
No that is crap. As no question was asked do you rate him, the question was who do you want to be next Tory leader in which Boris trounces all his rivals with both the Public and Tory voters.
Boris is now the only Tory candidate with the charisma and appeal to the defecting Tory Leavers the Tories need to get out their base and beat Corbyn, if not Boris the Tories likely lose. End of conversation
It’s not crap. Do you rate him is pretty much the same thing as do you want him to be Tory leader. You don’t exactly want someone to be leader if you don’t rate their ability, do you? As I’ve said before, it doesn’t matter than Boris ‘trounces his [Tory] rivals.’ Relative popularity only matters in relation to Corbyn among the public, not other Tories. And on that score only 21% favour him.
While Boris had a net favourability score of -17 among the general public in early September, this has since diminished to -29, while his net favourability score among Conservative voters has slumped from +35 to +12.
Currently, 28% of the general public have a favourable view of the Foreign Secretary while 57% hold unfavourable ones. Among 2017 Conservative voters, 52% have a favourable view of Boris while 40% hold unfavourable views.
As long as you have a favourable view with your base, as Boris still does with Tories it does not matter if you have an unfavourable view overall as Trump and Corbyn proved
LOL.... T.
No not LOL. After Boris' resignation his approval level has rocketed amongst Tories, hence he now leads the polls comfortably with Tory voters as to who should succeed May
Yes LOL. That delatpoll figure of 16% covers voters overall, not just Tory voters. This is what one of the guys at the pollster had to say about Boris’ figures (from The Sun link provided earlier): Deltapoll director Joe Twyman said: “The fact that Boris tops the list with support from fewer than one in six Brits – and only one in five Tory voters – shows the trouble the Conservatives are in.
“If he is your most popular alternative, then you don’t have a proper alternative. How has his approval rocketed if he’s only the top choice for one in five Tory voters? If he’s rocketed to there, how low was he regarded among them before?
No LOL you are not even reading the right poll. The latest Delta poll has Boris already up an astonishing 5% in a week to 21% as to who should be next Tory leader and PM and stretching his lead over his rivals.
With Tories Boris is already up to 24% and on more than double his nearest rival
So you’ve provided the link to the wrong poll earlier on then....so you were using a poll that you yourself describe as ‘wrong’ to support your own arguments. Well.....
Even on the figures you provide 21% of overall voters is terrible and certainly does not indicate popularity.
It was more than Corbyn got when he stood for Labour leader with the public overall, so again rubbish
@HYUFD No, it shows that the general public don’t rate Boris very much. That he scores better than other Tory leadership contenders, just reveals that the public rate them even less, not that Boris is popular. I’m not trying to argue that Corbyn is popular, but that simply more voters rate him as a potential PM than they do Boris. Which is what the poll shows.
Again, bullshit. Corbyn lost the last general election and was trailing most polls until the Chequers Deal when Tory voters went to UKIP, Boris is by far the best candidate to get them back
It’s not bullshit. No one denies Corbyn lost the last GE. But he lost it Tory camp in the process.
No he won't as the new Delta poll shows, your figures are out of date. Tory Remainers who voted against Corbyn in 2017 will do so again next time and Boris will also get the Tory to UKIP defectors back which is the only way they will defeat Corbyn
The Delta poll doesn’t show my figures are out of date. It shows that only 1 in 6 voters rate Boris, and only 1 in 5 Tory voters rate him (see previous post). That’s hardly a popular candidate, even among Tories.
No that is crap. As no question was asked do you rate him, the question was who do you want to be next Tory
It’s not crap. Do you rate him is pretty much the same thing as do you want him to be Tory leader. You don’t exactly want someone to be leader if you don’t rate their ability, do you? As I’ve said before, it doesn’t matter than Boris ‘trounces his [Tory] rivals.’ Relative popularity only matters in relation to Corbyn among the public, not other Tories. And on that score only 21% favour him.
He is the choice of 21 per cent of voters, well ahead of the second most favoured, Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson, who polled eight per cent.
Again utter crap as that 21% was NOT a head to head poll against Corbyn but the number who put Boris first to succeed May.
The only head to head poll we have so far since GE17 was last summer's Survation where the Tories voteshare against Corbyn Labour was higher under Boris then under any other Tory contender, including May.
@HYUFD And again - Corbyn was not a well known figure when he first stood for leader in 2015, he was an obscure backbencher. Boris on the other hand, has been a well known national figure since 2009. Given how many people know of him, he should be doing much better if he really is popular.
Also it doesn’t matter if it’s a head to head poll. It still tells us the number of people who want Boris to be PM among voters, and we can still compare that with Corbyn’s figures.
Also it doesn’t matter if it’s a head to head poll. It still tells us the number of people who want Boris to be PM among voters, and we can still compare that with Corbyn’s figures.
It doesn't tell us anything off the sort, the 21% number would have been smaller if there were more names to choose from in the list, and bigger if fewer, it tells you nothing except their relative popularity compared to the other candidates on offer, assuming all those candidates stood. It doesn't even tell you who is the most popular choice if any of those candidates didn't stand didn't stand, because you have no idea who that candidates supporters would have picked instead.
Comments
They were told reducing immigration was cost free. That there would be no downsides. Good luck with that.
Boris narrowly won his London Mayor terms because he seemed to be on the liberal wing of the Tory Party. This has been blown out of the water by him subsequently coming out for hard Brexit and made an oaf of himself abroad. He wouldn’t have a cat in hells chance now and would be unlikely to do any better than Zac Goldsmith.
This April 2018 Times poll shows that more voters rate Corbyn (!!!!!!) as a potential PM than Boris:
https://twitter.com/mattchorley/status/1016353004650487808?s=21
Given the referendum result, but prior to triggering Article 50, it seems clear to me that the government did not have a realistic prospect of stating "we believe the UK is better-off inside the EU, for some definition of 'better-off' that 52% of voters foolishly disagree with, so we refuse to start proceedings to leave the EU" - at least, not without the cost of triggering a constitutional crisis and without severe political repercussions. A more creative alternative might be "we will open negotiations but without triggering Article 50 as that deprives us of our trump card"... and then try to somehow force the EU into meaningful pre-negotiations. How though? Perhaps by announcing a destructive campaign of empty-chairing or vetoing unless some talks begin, though the spoilt brat strategy has obvious disadvantages for starting sensitive negotiations with a close partner.
Given the referendum result, but after triggering Article 50, the policy space is now smaller because "don't trigger" is no longer an option. Within that reduced space, what is the BATNA then? Whatever it is, "make no preparations for no-deal so that it would be an utter disaster" doesn't jump out at me as candidate Numero Uno.
This recent Times poll shows that more voters rate Corbyn (!!!!!!) as a potential PM than Boris:
https://twitter.com/mattchorley/status/1016353004650487808?s=21
</blockquote
dixiedean:
Popular with Tory members is the new popular with voters don't you know?
It's an ERG thang.
Given that poll has Corbyn with a huge net negative anyway and Davidson, a Tory, with the only net positive it means little on a Corbyn v Boris battle in any case
Everyone knows that Boris is a hardcore Leaver so the fact that the poll was taken before his resignation is irrelevant.
The Survation poll was last summer, so before this April 2018 poll. This is more recent, and shows only 17% of voters thinking Boris has what it takes to be a good PM, so no, he’s not popular with voters. Speaking of 2017, a November 2017 poll showed Boris’s approval ratings declining with both the general public as a whole and Tory voters:
While Boris had a net favourability score of -17 among the general public in early September, this has since diminished to -29, while his net favourability score among Conservative voters has slumped from +35 to +12.
Currently, 28% of the general public have a favourable view of the Foreign Secretary while 57% hold unfavourable ones. Among 2017 Conservative voters, 52% have a favourable view of Boris while 40% hold unfavourable views.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/11/14/boris-johnsons-favourability-takes-big-hit-among-c/
No, it shows that the general public don’t rate Boris very much. That he scores better than other Tory leadership contenders, just reveals that the public rate them even less, not that Boris is popular. I’m not trying to argue that Corbyn is popular, but that simply more voters rate him as a potential PM than they do Boris. Which is what the poll shows.
The view of Boris, even among Tory voters has declined as the cited YouGov poll shows. 40% unfavourable among your own voters is pretty bad. Trump on the other hand is overwhelmingly popular among those who ID as Republicans.
Indeed the latest Delta poll post Chequers and Boris' resignation has Boris ahead on 21% with Davidson second on 8% then Hunt on 6% and Javid on 5%. Amongst Tories Boris leads on 24% to Davidson's 11%, Hunt's 7% and Javid's 4%.
Boris also leads on 21% as to who would make the best next PM with Davidson on 11% in opposition to your earlier cited YouGov poll
http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/polls/brext-chequers-may-conservatives
Deltapoll director Joe Twyman said: “The fact that Boris tops the list with support from fewer than one in six Brits – and only one in five Tory voters – shows the trouble the Conservatives are in.
“If he is your most popular alternative, then you don’t have a proper alternative.
How has his approval rocketed if he’s only the top choice for one in five Tory voters? If he’s rocketed to there, how low was he regarded among them before?
"There are lots of reasons why the party of government has become the party of anarchy. The whips have forgotten the art of keeping order. The brightest right-wingers have abandoned national politics for global business. A band of fanatics have sold themselves as Conservatives. But one thing above all others explains the current mess: the Conservative Party, or large chunks of it, has forgotten the basic principles of conservatism. It has ceased to think like a conservative party, and it won’t recover its governing ability until it relearns that difficult art."
With Tories Boris is already up to 24% and on more than double his nearest rival
trounces all his rivals with both the Public and Tory voters.
Boris is now the only Tory candidate with the charisma and appeal to the defecting Tory Leavers the Tories need to get out their base and beat Corbyn, if not Boris the Tories likely lose. End of conversation
Even on the figures you provide 21% of overall voters is terrible and certainly does not indicate popularity.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6781627/overwhelming-62-of-voters-want-theresa-may-to-stand-down-as-pm-before-next-general-election-as-popularity-hits-all-time-low/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
He is the choice of 21 per cent of voters, well ahead of the second most favoured, Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson, who polled eight per cent.
The only head to head poll we have so far since GE17 was last summer's Survation where the Tories voteshare against Corbyn Labour was higher under Boris then under any other Tory contender, including May.
Also it doesn’t matter if it’s a head to head poll. It still tells us the number of people who want Boris to be PM among voters, and we can still compare that with Corbyn’s figures.