politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters still make a 2018 exit for TMay the favourite but the
Comments
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Trump as helpful as ever...apparently Putin is the easiest to deal with.
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/10166654019404226580 -
"Brett Kavanaugh Is Trump’s Pick for Supreme Court"
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/09/us/politics/brett-kavanaugh-supreme-court.html0 -
The problem perhaps with the Chequers deal is that it is arguably the worst of both worlds. Few of the benefits of being in the EU fully including having a seat at the table but none of the potential benefits of a full break.Scott_P said:The key point is that Mr Johnson has now put the question of “UK as an EU colony” at centre stage. If those fears grow, that might create momentum for Britain to walk away with no deal.
But equally, it might give momentum to those MPs who believe that a second referendum is needed on whether Brexit is really worth it.
https://www.ft.com/content/3a8059ca-8435-11e8-a29d-73e3d454535d0 -
He’s probably right. So long as the Chequers plan is pretty much stuck to, that’s how we will exit the EU and right now it enjoys wide support among Conservatives.Scott_P said:
He also identifies the danger that this plan gets watered down and becomes completely unpalatable to the Conservative party, in which case we’ll see a change of PM and someone like Gove or Javid negotiating much harder while planning for the no-deal scenario.0 -
Great choiceAndyJS said:"Brett Kavanaugh Is Trump’s Pick for Supreme Court"
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/09/us/politics/brett-kavanaugh-supreme-court.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K38FOk06atE
Well done Donald0 -
Amount staked:
Labour leader £440,000
Tory leader £320,000
LD leader £4680 -
Have I Got News For You: Anna Soubry 'not good enough' to host it, says producer
Anna Soubry, the Conservative MP, was first to announce that she had offered to present the show but had been turned down. “Still available, boys,” she said.
Now the female producer of the show has given her reasons for not booking Soubry and her Westminster colleagues: they are simply not good enough, but are too “greedy” and ego-driven to accept that they should be panellists rather than hosts.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/07/10/have-got-news-anna-soubry-not-good-enough-host-says-producer/0 -
EU Council president Donald Tusk: 'Dear America, appreciate your allies. After all you don't have that many.'
Somebody page the burns unit, we've got a serious casualty coming in0 -
Yes, but when does this much-mooted "planning for the no-deal scenario" actually begin? If it's after some future change of PM because the Chequers plan got watered down too much, well they can plan as much as they like but there'll be no time to actually implement anything before the country goes over the cliff edge.Sandpit said:
He’s probably right. So long as the Chequers plan is pretty much stuck to, that’s how we will exit the EU and right now it enjoys wide support among Conservatives.Scott_P said:
He also identifies the danger that this plan gets watered down and becomes completely unpalatable to the Conservative party, in which case we’ll see a change of PM and someone like Gove or Javid negotiating much harder while planning for the no-deal scenario.0 -
Whoever would believe that Boris Johnson is great friends with a sexual predator who hangs out with white supremacists?TheScreamingEagles said:This should help Mrs May.
Donald Trump today heaped praise on Cabinet quitter Boris Johnson as he said the UK was in political “turmoil”.
In a humiliating intervention for Theresa May, the US President said the former Foreign Secretary - who quit the Government with a blast at her Brexit plans - was “a great friend of mine”.
And he said it would be up to the British people whether or not Mrs May remains in power.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/boris-johnson/news/96726/watch-donald-trump-heaps
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Putin is the only leader Trump is meeting that he likes and admires. He's also up to his neck in it with the Russians, in a whole host of different ways.FrancisUrquhart said:Trump as helpful as ever...apparently Putin is the easiest to deal with.
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I've alway rated Tusk ahead of the other EU presidents, but that comment is a serious misjudgement.grabcocque said:EU Council president Donald Tusk: 'Dear America, appreciate your allies. After all you don't have that many.'
Somebody page the burns unit, we've got a serious casualty coming in0 -
Yes we do. Because the number of jobs is not finite, those foreigners that need schools and hospitals need doctors, nurses and teachers. They'll go to bars and restaurants, they'll need homes and utilities.Anorak said:We have full employment *despite* bazillions of foreigners taking all our jobs and clogging up our schools and hospitals and talking funny on the bus. Right.
Hence why when our number of doctors and nurses is at a record high it is still not enough.
Only absolute morons think the number of jobs is static.0 -
By many measures, May did spectactularly well last year. Yet the election was a display of monumental political naivety. Two huge factors were misunderstood or ignored: 1. Corbyn 2. The arithmetic of FPTP. It was funny in a way to see the damage that Cameron (and Clegg) did to the LibDems come home to roost, as anti-Brexit former Lib Dem voters refused to split the Labour vote.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Dave 2015 36.9%midwinter said:
She lost seats to Corbyn. And the idea that she was responsible for the success in Scotland is risible.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Dave 2015 votes 11,334,226TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave won a majority when UKIP polled nearly 13%.GIN1138 said:
Even after 2017 there seems to be so much complacency about Corbyn.currystar said:
That will not happen with Corbyn as Labour Leader and Cable as Lib Dem leader. A Blair type figure needs to emerge for that to happenGIN1138 said:
The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.
Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
All the Corbyn scares were barely enough in 2017 but the Tories will be vastly more unpopular with their voters than they were in 2017 whenever they dare front up to face the electorate.
And that's without the probable added complication of a Farage comeback. Things are going to get very, very serious for the Conservatives.
Mrs May didn't win a majority when UKIP polled less than 2%.
A good Tory leader knows how to win a majority with UKIP polling highly.
May 2017 votes 13,636,684
Dave 2015 Scottish seats 1
May 2017 Scottish seats 13
May 2017 42.4%0 -
More difficult to host than panel a gameshow, Ann Widdecombe wasn't too bad though.FrancisUrquhart said:Have I Got News For You: Anna Soubry 'not good enough' to host it, says producer
Anna Soubry, the Conservative MP, was first to announce that she had offered to present the show but had been turned down. “Still available, boys,” she said.
Now the female producer of the show has given her reasons for not booking Soubry and her Westminster colleagues: they are simply not good enough, but are too “greedy” and ego-driven to accept that they should be panellists rather than hosts.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/07/10/have-got-news-anna-soubry-not-good-enough-host-says-producer/0 -
actually most people do want to limit immigrationDecrepitJohnL said:
The EU wants FOM. We want to take back control but not actually to limit immigration. Look at non-EU immigration under Theresa May when she was Home Secretary for six years! Ample room for fudge. FOM is angels on the head of a pin stuff.archer101au said:
For fudge, you mean lie, right?DecrepitJohnL said:
Yet so inept are our political classes that this is what threatens our prosperity inside or outside the EU. It's like arguing about tariffs on dilithium crystals.0 -
If it were up to me, about two years ago!rpjs said:
Yes, but when does this much-mooted "planning for the no-deal scenario" actually begin? If it's after some future change of PM because the Chequers plan got watered down too much, well they can plan as much as they like but there'll be no time to actually implement anything before the country goes over the cliff edge.Sandpit said:
He’s probably right. So long as the Chequers plan is pretty much stuck to, that’s how we will exit the EU and right now it enjoys wide support among Conservatives.Scott_P said:
He also identifies the danger that this plan gets watered down and becomes completely unpalatable to the Conservative party, in which case we’ll see a change of PM and someone like Gove or Javid negotiating much harder while planning for the no-deal scenario.
The EU benefit hugely by design from the clock, we need to watch for them procrastinating in order to run it down. If we change PM, then the new PM needs to say that we are spending the £39bn at a rate of £1bn a week on the no-deal preparations, until we have the deal in place.0 -
That’s the sort of comment expected from Junker after a long lunch, not from the one man who’s supposedly the adult in the EU.Pulpstar said:
I've alway rated Tusk ahead of the other EU presidents, but that comment is a serious misjudgement.grabcocque said:EU Council president Donald Tusk: 'Dear America, appreciate your allies. After all you don't have that many.'
Somebody page the burns unit, we've got a serious casualty coming in
Wait until Donald announces huge and massive and great reductions in US military numbers in Europe, bringing these lovely and wonderful servicemen and women back to their families in the USA. Oh, and maybe some huge tarrifs on EU cars too.0 -
Well at least you can't say he's not transparent... That's what you call stabbing the leader in the back. And the front!williamglenn said:
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What would your reaction be if the Labour party said they were going to spend £1bn a week on any new project you could think of? What would you spend it on? It sounds like a bonanza for the think tanks who have been ceaselessly promoting a hard Brexit.Sandpit said:
If it were up to me, about two years ago!rpjs said:
Yes, but when does this much-mooted "planning for the no-deal scenario" actually begin? If it's after some future change of PM because the Chequers plan got watered down too much, well they can plan as much as they like but there'll be no time to actually implement anything before the country goes over the cliff edge.Sandpit said:
He’s probably right. So long as the Chequers plan is pretty much stuck to, that’s how we will exit the EU and right now it enjoys wide support among Conservatives.Scott_P said:
He also identifies the danger that this plan gets watered down and becomes completely unpalatable to the Conservative party, in which case we’ll see a change of PM and someone like Gove or Javid negotiating much harder while planning for the no-deal scenario.
The EU benefit hugely by design from the clock, we need to watch for them procrastinating in order to run it down. If we change PM, then the new PM needs to say that we are spending the £39bn at a rate of £1bn a week on the no-deal preparations, until we have the deal in place.0 -
He'd also skipped TWO meetings very publicly - COBRA and a conference he was hosting - did he seriously think no one would notice?TheScreamingEagles said:
Boris was planning on resigning during Mrs May's statement to the Commons.maaarsh said:
May releases people's resignations without notice - she has no right to expect any courtesies or niceties from political opponentsStark_Dawning said:
Bit cheap of him releasing it to the media. What a rotter!williamglenn said:
She was quite right in trying to stop him destabilising the government.
Instead he was writing a self-pitying self-exculpatory ("people were told, not I told people) two page ramble and hunkered down for four hours in Carlton Gardens until the Press photographers showed up.
What a self-obsessed, self-unaware, selfish git.
Peter Carington's passing today reminds us what real foreign secretaries look like0 -
A former Foreign Secretary used to be quite good value as host...I hear he has a lot more time on his hands these days.Pulpstar said:
More difficult to host than panel a gameshow, Ann Widdecombe wasn't too bad though.FrancisUrquhart said:Have I Got News For You: Anna Soubry 'not good enough' to host it, says producer
Anna Soubry, the Conservative MP, was first to announce that she had offered to present the show but had been turned down. “Still available, boys,” she said.
Now the female producer of the show has given her reasons for not booking Soubry and her Westminster colleagues: they are simply not good enough, but are too “greedy” and ego-driven to accept that they should be panellists rather than hosts.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/07/10/have-got-news-anna-soubry-not-good-enough-host-says-producer/0 -
I think his reputation has been well and truly trashed in the last two years.CarlottaVance said:
He'd also skipped TWO meetings very publicly - COBRA and a conference he was hosting - did he seriously think no one would notice?TheScreamingEagles said:
Boris was planning on resigning during Mrs May's statement to the Commons.maaarsh said:
May releases people's resignations without notice - she has no right to expect any courtesies or niceties from political opponentsStark_Dawning said:
Bit cheap of him releasing it to the media. What a rotter!williamglenn said:
She was quite right in trying to stop him destabilising the government.
Instead he was writing a self-pitying self-exculpatory ("people were told, not I told people) two page ramble and hunkered down for four hours in Carlton Gardens until the Press photographers showed up.
What a self-obsessed, self-unaware, selfish git.
Peter Carington's passing today reminds us what real foreign secretaries look like0 -
I've been trying to make heads of tails of the new monthly GDP figures (an interesting innovation, IMO) but I can't. The ONS said that March-May growth was 0.3%, fine. The detail is that March grew at 0% MoM, April at 0.2% MoM and May at 0.3% MoM. I really wish they would start using annualised figures instead of a single decimal.
For the life of me I can't figure out how that makes sense unless there is some kind of seasonal adjustment for the 3-month figure they haven't mentioned.0 -
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I agree. The trouble is that Trump is so ghastly, even sensible folk can't resist taking a pop at him. He's thin-skinned enough to take Tusk's remarks as a challenge. Militarily, America doesn't need allies. Or at least, not allies on the Atlantic.Pulpstar said:
I've alway rated Tusk ahead of the other EU presidents, but that comment is a serious misjudgement.grabcocque said:EU Council president Donald Tusk: 'Dear America, appreciate your allies. After all you don't have that many.'
Somebody page the burns unit, we've got a serious casualty coming in0 -
His behaviors are those of a hostile nation. He is moving the US to being an enemy of democracy and a friend to autocrats. It is clear that private diplomacy means nothing to him - ask the G7. Perhaps some honesty might help.Sandpit said:
That’s the sort of comment expected from Junker after a long lunch, not from the one man who’s supposedly the adult in the EU.Pulpstar said:
I've alway rated Tusk ahead of the other EU presidents, but that comment is a serious misjudgement.grabcocque said:EU Council president Donald Tusk: 'Dear America, appreciate your allies. After all you don't have that many.'
Somebody page the burns unit, we've got a serious casualty coming in
Wait until Donald announces huge and massive and great reductions in US military numbers in Europe, bringing these lovely and wonderful servicemen and women back to their families in the USA. Oh, and maybe some huge tarrifs on EU cars too.0 -
It’s the money we’ve already agreed to pay to the EU, not new money.williamglenn said:
What would your reaction be if the Labour party said they were going to spend £1bn a week on any new project you could think of? What would you spend it on? It sounds like a bonanza for the think tanks who have been ceaselessly promoting a hard Brexit.Sandpit said:
If it were up to me, about two years ago!rpjs said:
Yes, but when does this much-mooted "planning for the no-deal scenario" actually begin? If it's after some future change of PM because the Chequers plan got watered down too much, well they can plan as much as they like but there'll be no time to actually implement anything before the country goes over the cliff edge.Sandpit said:
He’s probably right. So long as the Chequers plan is pretty much stuck to, that’s how we will exit the EU and right now it enjoys wide support among Conservatives.Scott_P said:
He also identifies the danger that this plan gets watered down and becomes completely unpalatable to the Conservative party, in which case we’ll see a change of PM and someone like Gove or Javid negotiating much harder while planning for the no-deal scenario.
The EU benefit hugely by design from the clock, we need to watch for them procrastinating in order to run it down. If we change PM, then the new PM needs to say that we are spending the £39bn at a rate of £1bn a week on the no-deal preparations, until we have the deal in place.
Yes it would be an absolute bonanza for the people involved, the government would be paying top dollar for everything given the nine month deadline, but it mitigates the problems of the no-deal scenario.0 -
"Matthew Goodwin
Verified account @GoodwinMJ
5h5 hours ago
First, Conservative voters today are far more pro-Leave than they were only 3 years ago
Large majority just want out"
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ0 -
By the last week of the 2017 campaign a Hung Parliament had become a serious possibility and was reflected in several narrow Tory poll leads.Nemtynakht said:
Anyone thinking the next election will be easy for Labour are missing the obvious. At the last election the Tories polled over 40% with one of the worst political communicators I’ve seen. Gordon Brown who was comparable got 29%. There is one Corbyn shaped reason for that, and that does not even take into account the fact that people voted think8ng that Labour had no chance of getting into Government. The only way Corbyn gets in is if the Tory party splits, and I think that must be driving the MPs current behaviour in supporting Mays incoherent plan.currystar said:
That will not happen with Corbyn as Labour Leader and Cable as Lib Dem leader. A Blair type figure needs to emerge for that to happenGIN1138 said:
The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.TGOHF said:
Winning votes in the HoC may be a lot easier for Mrs May than winning votes at the ballot box.GIN1138 said:FPT
She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.Big_G_NorthWales said:
So how will she be replaced before March 2019 when she will win any VNOC and then that keeps her in place for at least a further yearGIN1138 said:AlastairMeeks said:So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?
Before.
The Brexiteers do not have the numbers which has been generally agreed within the media today
If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.0 -
You mean like this guy?kjohnw said:
actually most people do want to limit immigrationDecrepitJohnL said:
The EU wants FOM. We want to take back control but not actually to limit immigration. Look at non-EU immigration under Theresa May when she was Home Secretary for six years! Ample room for fudge. FOM is angels on the head of a pin stuff.archer101au said:
For fudge, you mean lie, right?DecrepitJohnL said:
Yet so inept are our political classes that this is what threatens our prosperity inside or outside the EU. It's like arguing about tariffs on dilithium crystals.
https://thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/man-claims-hius-life-being-ruined-by-immigration-but-cant-explain-how-201702271229320 -
So the PM has his backing on the basis of "this - but not an inch more". I suspect there is a sizeable portion of the Parliamentary Party who take the same view. If she loses them - she's gone and it's crash out Brexit and no cheque to Brussels.Scott_P said:
And that makes her job a lot easier. Sorry, what am I saying - the job of Mr. Raab....0 -
Indeed. It's the sort of thing David Cameron might have said, and look what happened to him.Pulpstar said:
I've alway rated Tusk ahead of the other EU presidents, but that comment is a serious misjudgement.grabcocque said:EU Council president Donald Tusk: 'Dear America, appreciate your allies. After all you don't have that many.'
Somebody page the burns unit, we've got a serious casualty coming in
Actually, what did happen to him? Will we get his memoirs in time for Christmas?0 -
I think they’re “quarterising” the monthly figures, in the same way you suggest they might “annualise” the quarterly figures, if that makes sense?MaxPB said:I've been trying to make heads of tails of the new monthly GDP figures (an interesting innovation, IMO) but I can't. The ONS said that March-May growth was 0.3%, fine. The detail is that March grew at 0% MoM, April at 0.2% MoM and May at 0.3% MoM. I really wish they would start using annualised figures instead of a single decimal.
For the life of me I can't figure out how that makes sense unless there is some kind of seasonal adjustment for the 3-month figure they haven't mentioned.
They’d be better off spending their efforts on producing a smaller number of more accurate estimates, rather than producing a higher number of crap ones, but there we go.0 -
This one isn't a QC.Pulpstar said:
Great choiceAndyJS said:"Brett Kavanaugh Is Trump’s Pick for Supreme Court"
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/09/us/politics/brett-kavanaugh-supreme-court.html
...
Well done Donald
And this is why Trump picked him.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/07/brett-kavanaugh-is-devoted-to-the-presidency/564764/
One could imagine, of course, that Kavanaugh’s experience pursuing wrongdoing in the Clinton White House might incline him to a jaundiced view of presidents generally, thus offering a hope that, on the bench, he will be independent of the president who appointed him. But in a 2009 article in Minnesota Law Review, Kavanaugh, by then a life-tenured judge, announced that the independent-counsel investigation in which he served had been a mistake after all: “[T]he nation certainly would have been better off if President Clinton could have focused on Osama Bin Laden without being distracted by the Paula Jones sexual harassment case and its criminal-investigation offshoots.” He suggested instead that Congress should, by statute, simply provide that a sitting president could neither be sued, indicted, tried, investigated or even questioned by prosecutors while in office. Problem solved.0 -
Completely O/T but I hope that the British cave divers who supported getting those kids out will be recognised in the appropriate honours list. Guts, skill and competence. We need more of that.0
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Agreed. I thought that Theresa May really did Keep Calm and Carry On with that stellar Commons performance sandwiched between those resignations and her appearance at the 1922 meeting yesterday. Its been a turbulent year for the PM, but what doesn't break you makes you stronger. And despite those unfolding Cabinet resignations on Sunday and Monday, it was pretty clear on Friday at Chequers that both May and the No10 team had finally found a collective back bone and decided to stand up to the key Cabinet mavericks she unwisely chose to put into the two key Ministerial briefs overseeing Brexit at the beginning of her Premiership.TheScreamingEagles said:
Boris was planning on resigning during Mrs May's statement to the Commons.maaarsh said:
May releases people's resignations without notice - she has no right to expect any courtesies or niceties from political opponentsStark_Dawning said:
Bit cheap of him releasing it to the media. What a rotter!williamglenn said:
She was quite right in trying to stop him destabilising the government.
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Like you say the problem is the rounding to one decimal place (but then they aren't accurate to one decimal place anyway).MaxPB said:I've been trying to make heads of tails of the new monthly GDP figures (an interesting innovation, IMO) but I can't. The ONS said that March-May growth was 0.3%, fine. The detail is that March grew at 0% MoM, April at 0.2% MoM and May at 0.3% MoM. I really wish they would start using annualised figures instead of a single decimal.
For the life of me I can't figure out how that makes sense unless there is some kind of seasonal adjustment for the 3-month figure they haven't mentioned.
Could be, March -0.05%, April 0.15%, May 0.25%, which works out to a smidgen over 0.35%. You would expect that to be rounded to 0.4%, but is the March - May figure an increase on the quarter before, rather than the accumulation of three MoM figures from February?
I dislike the idea of using annualised figures. If you want to use two decimal places then do so, but converting the numbers to something that they aren't is needlessly confusing.0 -
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"Kavanaugh worked for the George W. Bush campaign in the Florida recount" i.e. I don't like him. But I suppose it's a pretty obvious and *relatively* uncontroversial choice.AndyJS said:"Brett Kavanaugh Is Trump’s Pick for Supreme Court"
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/09/us/politics/brett-kavanaugh-supreme-court.html0 -
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https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/may2018
It is 0.2% growth in the quarter to May compared with the previous quarter.0 -
New poll, in which the two main parties drop 7 points compared to Kantar's last survey:
"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
GB, Kantar poll:
CON-ECR: 40% (-4)
LAB-S&D: 38% (-3)
LDEM-ALDE: 9% (+1)
SNP-G/EFA: 4% (+1)
UKIP-EFDD: 3% (+1)
Greens-G/EFA: 3% (+1)
+/- vs. #GE2017 in GB
Field work: 5/07/18 – 9/07/18
Sample size: 1,086
2 replies 10 retweets 8 likes"0 -
You cannot have an unlimited open border without severe consequences for national infrastructure, resources and the massive change and effect on our whole society and culture. Politicians of all colours have ignored the silent majority on this for decades, hence the reason for the vote to Brexit. We have to be able to control our borders,. Immigration can be good if it is controlled, allowing those in with skills or finances to benefit our economy, but if it causes more burden to the taxpayer, and to the infrastructure we have then we should restrict immigration.TOPPING said:
You mean like this guy?kjohnw said:
actually most people do want to limit immigrationDecrepitJohnL said:
The EU wants FOM. We want to take back control but not actually to limit immigration. Look at non-EU immigration under Theresa May when she was Home Secretary for six years! Ample room for fudge. FOM is angels on the head of a pin stuff.archer101au said:
For fudge, you mean lie, right?DecrepitJohnL said:
Yet so inept are our political classes that this is what threatens our prosperity inside or outside the EU. It's like arguing about tariffs on dilithium crystals.
https://thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/man-claims-hius-life-being-ruined-by-immigration-but-cant-explain-how-201702271229320 -
I don't think many reasonable people could disagree with a word of that. What an astute post.CarlottaVance said:
He'd also skipped TWO meetings very publicly - COBRA and a conference he was hosting - did he seriously think no one would notice?TheScreamingEagles said:
Boris was planning on resigning during Mrs May's statement to the Commons.maaarsh said:
May releases people's resignations without notice - she has no right to expect any courtesies or niceties from political opponentsStark_Dawning said:
Bit cheap of him releasing it to the media. What a rotter!williamglenn said:
She was quite right in trying to stop him destabilising the government.
Instead he was writing a self-pitying self-exculpatory ("people were told, not I told people) two page ramble and hunkered down for four hours in Carlton Gardens until the Press photographers showed up.
What a self-obsessed, self-unaware, selfish git.
Peter Carington's passing today reminds us what real foreign secretaries look like0 -
If she doesn't water down further - HahahahaScott_P said:0 -
Clearly you are a man of taste, it's a wonderful motion picture. Some eminently quotable lines in it!Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Ms. Anazina, ha, I saw that bit of Die Hard the other day too.
Has anyone else resigned?0 -
https://twitter.com/smitharrytv/status/1016675457415237632
The linked thread is decent. People being nice about someone when they're still alive is always a good sign.
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That's not it, I've figure it out, and it seems like a really stupid way of doing things. They take the GVA index average of the current three months and compare that to the average of the previous three months and subtract one from the other.Sandpit said:
I think they’re “quarterising” the monthly figures, in the same way you suggest they might “annualise” the quarterly figures, if that makes sense?MaxPB said:I've been trying to make heads of tails of the new monthly GDP figures (an interesting innovation, IMO) but I can't. The ONS said that March-May growth was 0.3%, fine. The detail is that March grew at 0% MoM, April at 0.2% MoM and May at 0.3% MoM. I really wish they would start using annualised figures instead of a single decimal.
For the life of me I can't figure out how that makes sense unless there is some kind of seasonal adjustment for the 3-month figure they haven't mentioned.
They’d be better off spending their efforts on producing a smaller number of more accurate estimates, rather than producing a higher number of crap ones, but there we go.
I would compare the May figure to the Feb figure, which implies 0.5% growth (in line with NIESR today at 0.4%), their way is just stupid.0 -
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Mr. Sand/Mr. Pulpstar, agree on Tusk. Generally more sensible, this was an unnecessary and unwise remark.0
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It really isn't. It's the average GVA of the current three month period compared with the average GVA of the previous three month period. I don't think that counts as GDP, I'm not even sure what it counts as tbh.Verulamius said:https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/may2018
It is 0.2% growth in the quarter to May compared with the previous quarter.0 -
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I thought it was quite funny. Trump deserves a dose of his own medicine from time to time.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sand/Mr. Pulpstar, agree on Tusk. Generally more sensible, this was an unnecessary and unwise remark.
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Especially as economic migration is going to multiply as Africa gets richer. Rich people stay where they are, poor people cannot afford people traffickers, but as the middle get richer they can - so expect a lot more to take the risk to cross the Med. In a controlled way we could deal with that - and help keep our workforce up as current citizens retire - but uncontrolled it would be socially unacceptablekjohnw said:
You cannot have an unlimited open border without severe consequences for national infrastructure, resources and the massive change and effect on our whole society and culture. Politicians of all colours have ignored the silent majority on this for decades, hence the reason for the vote to Brexit. We have to be able to control our borders,. Immigration can be good if it is controlled, allowing those in with skills or finances to benefit our economy, but if it causes more burden to the taxpayer, and to the infrastructure we have then we should restrict immigration.TOPPING said:
You mean like this guy?kjohnw said:
actually most people do want to limit immigrationDecrepitJohnL said:
The EU wants FOM. We want to take back control but not actually to limit immigration. Look at non-EU immigration under Theresa May when she was Home Secretary for six years! Ample room for fudge. FOM is angels on the head of a pin stuff.archer101au said:
For fudge, you mean lie, right?DecrepitJohnL said:
Yet so inept are our political classes that this is what threatens our prosperity inside or outside the EU. It's like arguing about tariffs on dilithium crystals.
https://thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/man-claims-hius-life-being-ruined-by-immigration-but-cant-explain-how-201702271229320 -
Doing it like that makes no sense at all, not really what professional statisticians should be producing. Have their analysts instead look at why they’ve been massively underestimating construction numbers for several quarters in a row.MaxPB said:
That's not it, I've figure it out, and it seems like a really stupid way of doing things. They take the GVA index average of the current three months and compare that to the average of the previous three months and subtract one from the other.Sandpit said:
I think they’re “quarterising” the monthly figures, in the same way you suggest they might “annualise” the quarterly figures, if that makes sense?MaxPB said:I've been trying to make heads of tails of the new monthly GDP figures (an interesting innovation, IMO) but I can't. The ONS said that March-May growth was 0.3%, fine. The detail is that March grew at 0% MoM, April at 0.2% MoM and May at 0.3% MoM. I really wish they would start using annualised figures instead of a single decimal.
For the life of me I can't figure out how that makes sense unless there is some kind of seasonal adjustment for the 3-month figure they haven't mentioned.
They’d be better off spending their efforts on producing a smaller number of more accurate estimates, rather than producing a higher number of crap ones, but there we go.
I would compare the May figure to the Feb figure, which implies 0.5% growth (in line with NIESR today at 0.4%), their way is just stupid.0 -
Correct.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Reversing the Tunnel Tech decision from 2015.Pulpstar said:I'm thinking this bill may well have some unintended consequences... plant nurseries to be exempt from rates:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-parliaments-44767947
I must admit I cannot remember exactly, but I think many nurseries were treated as exempt from rates prior to the decision
Production of plants traditionally not rated.
Production of plants with retail sales of plants traditionally rated.0 -
Not weeping and wailing over Boris departure?
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/10166758591623782410 -
Yippie kayak, other bucket!Anazina said:
Clearly you are a man of taste, it's a wonderful motion picture. Some eminently quotable lines in it!Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Ms. Anazina, ha, I saw that bit of Die Hard the other day too.
Has anyone else resigned?0 -
It's stupid because this will be a useful series, but the interesting parts will be buried in the data. The headlines just won't make any sense. For example, the GDP run rate has increased from 1.2% last month to 1.5% this month, that's useful information. It definitely helps to have a trailing twelve months view of the economy, but they need to roll it out properly. Averages and GDP make no sense. If anything they could just add up the pure monthly GDP for the previous three months and compare it to the current three month sum. That would give us an accurate trailing three months growth figure. I guess we can work it out for ourselves.Sandpit said:
Doing it like that makes no sense at all, not really what professional statisticians should be producing. Have their analysts instead look at why they’ve been massively underestimating construction numbers for several quarters in a row.MaxPB said:
That's not it, I've figure it out, and it seems like a really stupid way of doing things. They take the GVA index average of the current three months and compare that to the average of the previous three months and subtract one from the other.Sandpit said:
I think they’re “quarterising” the monthly figures, in the same way you suggest they might “annualise” the quarterly figures, if that makes sense?MaxPB said:I've been trying to make heads of tails of the new monthly GDP figures (an interesting innovation, IMO) but I can't. The ONS said that March-May growth was 0.3%, fine. The detail is that March grew at 0% MoM, April at 0.2% MoM and May at 0.3% MoM. I really wish they would start using annualised figures instead of a single decimal.
For the life of me I can't figure out how that makes sense unless there is some kind of seasonal adjustment for the 3-month figure they haven't mentioned.
They’d be better off spending their efforts on producing a smaller number of more accurate estimates, rather than producing a higher number of crap ones, but there we go.
I would compare the May figure to the Feb figure, which implies 0.5% growth (in line with NIESR today at 0.4%), their way is just stupid.0 -
Scott_P said:
Ed Milibands loser brother supports Theresa May's "deal" from his home in New York City?
How nice for her...0 -
The other 2 are the important ones.GIN1138 said:Ed Milibands loser brother supports Theresa May's "deal" from his home in New York City?
How nice for her...
Just as the Brexiteers are all over the airwaves whining that Brexit will be crap, but their fantasy Brexit would have been fine, so DM is pointing out to Labour MPs that Corbyn's response is crap. His response (were he leader) would have been awesome...0 -
Yes, it would make much more sense for them to say that e.g. the estimate of GDP in April 2018 is £1.752bn and let us all work through the numbers from there. We have spreadsheets and calculators too nowMaxPB said:
It's stupid because this will be a useful series, but the interesting parts will be buried in the data. The headlines just won't make any sense. For example, the GDP run rate has increased from 1.2% last month to 1.5% this month, that's useful information. It definitely helps to have a trailing twelve months view of the economy, but they need to roll it out properly. Averages and GDP make no sense. If anything they could just add up the pure monthly GDP for the previous three months and compare it to the current three month sum. That would give us an accurate trailing three months growth figure. I guess we can work it out for ourselves.Sandpit said:
Doing it like that makes no sense at all, not really what professional statisticians should be producing. Have their analysts instead look at why they’ve been massively underestimating construction numbers for several quarters in a row.MaxPB said:
That's not it, I've figure it out, and it seems like a really stupid way of doing things. They take the GVA index average of the current three months and compare that to the average of the previous three months and subtract one from the other.Sandpit said:
I think they’re “quarterising” the monthly figures, in the same way you suggest they might “annualise” the quarterly figures, if that makes sense?MaxPB said:I've been trying to make heads of tails of the new monthly GDP figures (an interesting innovation, IMO) but I can't. The ONS said that March-May growth was 0.3%, fine. The detail is that March grew at 0% MoM, April at 0.2% MoM and May at 0.3% MoM. I really wish they would start using annualised figures instead of a single decimal.
For the life of me I can't figure out how that makes sense unless there is some kind of seasonal adjustment for the 3-month figure they haven't mentioned.
They’d be better off spending their efforts on producing a smaller number of more accurate estimates, rather than producing a higher number of crap ones, but there we go.
I would compare the May figure to the Feb figure, which implies 0.5% growth (in line with NIESR today at 0.4%), their way is just stupid.
0 -
Have they duplicated Esther McVey to make it look like there are more women in the cabinet?CarlottaVance said:Not weeping and wailing over Boris departure?
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/10166758591623782410 -
Indeed, though I hope you're talking about the GDP of Liberia there!Sandpit said:
Yes, it would make much more sense for them to say that e.g. the estimate of GDP in April 2018 is £1.752bn and let us all work through the numbers from there. We have spreadsheets and calculators too nowMaxPB said:
It's stupid because this will be a useful series, but the interesting parts will be buried in the data. The headlines just won't make any sense. For example, the GDP run rate has increased from 1.2% last month to 1.5% this month, that's useful information. It definitely helps to have a trailing twelve months view of the economy, but they need to roll it out properly. Averages and GDP make no sense. If anything they could just add up the pure monthly GDP for the previous three months and compare it to the current three month sum. That would give us an accurate trailing three months growth figure. I guess we can work it out for ourselves.Sandpit said:
Doing it like that makes no sense at all, not really what professional statisticians should be producing. Have their analysts instead look at why they’ve been massively underestimating construction numbers for several quarters in a row.MaxPB said:
That's not it, I've figure it out, and it seems like a really stupid way of doing things. They take the GVA index average of the current three months and compare that to the average of the previous three months and subtract one from the other.Sandpit said:
I think they’re “quarterising” the monthly figures, in the same way you suggest they might “annualise” the quarterly figures, if that makes sense?MaxPB said:I've been trying to make heads of tails of the new monthly GDP figures (an interesting innovation, IMO) but I can't. The ONS said that March-May growth was 0.3%, fine. The detail is that March grew at 0% MoM, April at 0.2% MoM and May at 0.3% MoM. I really wish they would start using annualised figures instead of a single decimal.
For the life of me I can't figure out how that makes sense unless there is some kind of seasonal adjustment for the 3-month figure they haven't mentioned.
They’d be better off spending their efforts on producing a smaller number of more accurate estimates, rather than producing a higher number of crap ones, but there we go.
I would compare the May figure to the Feb figure, which implies 0.5% growth (in line with NIESR today at 0.4%), their way is just stupid. 0 -
Ms. Anazina, it's a test run for Operation Clone Thatcher.0
-
Unlike now that her bunch of lies have been found out and the Tories have councillor's and MSP's being outed as racists on a weekly basis, £400K of illegal donations they are scared to tell where they came from , etc etc. Bunch of turkeys elected, on list seats, who struggle to tie their shoelaces or are too busy on their second and third jobs. Great job.DavidL said:
Not sure luck had much to do with it. Ruth’s campaign was everything May’s wasn’t. It had clear messages, clear objectives and Ruth led from the front.midwinter said:
Dave 2017 330 seats.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Dave 2015 36.9%midwinter said:
She lost seats to Corbyn. And the idea that she was responsible for the success in Scotland is risible.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Dave 2015 votes 11,334,226TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave won a majority when UKIP polled nearly 13%.GIN1138 said:
Even after 2017 there seems to be so much complacency about Corbyn.currystar said:
That will not happen with Corbyn as Labour Leader and Cable as Lib Dem leader. A Blair type figure needs to emerge for that to happenGIN1138 said:
The next election is probably now lost for the Tories whoever is leading them. The only question is how bad the defeat will be.TGOHF said:
.GIN1138 said:FPT
Big_G_NorthWales said:GIN1138 said:AlastairMeeks said:So, brains trust - as of today, is the consensus that Theresa May will be replaced in office before or after Brexit?
Before.
Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
All the Corbyn scares were barely enough in 2017 but the Tories will be vastly more unpopular with their voters than they were in 2017 whenever they dare front up to face the electorate.
And that's without the probable added complication of a Farage comeback. Things are going to get very, very serious for the Conservatives.
Mrs May didn't win a majority when UKIP polled less than 2%.
A good Tory leader knows how to win a majority with UKIP polling highly.
May 2017 votes 13,636,684
Dave 2015 Scottish seats 1
May 2017 Scottish seats 13
May 2017 42.4%
May 2017 317
Lucky Ruth won those extra seats in Scotland wasn't it0 -
Dad-of-two is so confident England will win the World Cup he's had THIS tattoo...
Dad-of-two Teddy Allen is so convinced England will win football's biggest tournament he’s had a special tattoo of captain Harry Kane inked on his thigh - with the words ‘World Cup winners’.
https://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/news/stoke-on-trent-news/dad-two-confident-england-win-17664160 -
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Whoops, I’m a couple of decimal places out there for the U.K., I did say it was only an example!MaxPB said:
Indeed, though I hope you're talking about the GDP of Liberia there!Sandpit said:
Yes, it would make much more sense for them to say that e.g. the estimate of GDP in April 2018 is £1.752bn and let us all work through the numbers from there. We have spreadsheets and calculators too nowMaxPB said:
It's stupid because this will be a useful series, but the interesting parts will be buried in the data. The headlines just won't make any sense. For example, the GDP run rate has increased from 1.2% last month to 1.5% this month, that's useful information. It definitely helps to have a trailing twelve months view of the economy, but they need to roll it out properly. Averages and GDP make no sense. If anything they could just add up the pure monthly GDP for the previous three months and compare it to the current three month sum. That would give us an accurate trailing three months growth figure. I guess we can work it out for ourselves.Sandpit said:
Doing it like that makes no sense at all, not really what professional statisticians should be producing. Have their analysts instead look at why they’ve been massively underestimating construction numbers for several quarters in a row.MaxPB said:
That's not it, I've figure it out, and it seems like a really stupid way of doing things. They take the GVA index average of the current three months and compare that to the average of the previous three months and subtract one from the other.Sandpit said:
I think they’re “quarterising” the monthly figures, in the same way you suggest they might “annualise” the quarterly figures, if that makes sense?MaxPB said:I've been trying to make heads of tails of the new monthly GDP figures (an interesting innovation, IMO) but I can't. The ONS said that March-May growth was 0.3%, fine. The detail is that March grew at 0% MoM, April at 0.2% MoM and May at 0.3% MoM. I really wish they would start using annualised figures instead of a single decimal.
For the life of me I can't figure out how that makes sense unless there is some kind of seasonal adjustment for the 3-month figure they haven't mentioned.
They’d be better off spending their efforts on producing a smaller number of more accurate estimates, rather than producing a higher number of crap ones, but there we go.
I would compare the May figure to the Feb figure, which implies 0.5% growth (in line with NIESR today at 0.4%), their way is just stupid.0 -
lol, good for jobs in EU and most European cars sold in US are built there, still will give them a chance to go back to crap local designed barges.Sandpit said:
That’s the sort of comment expected from Junker after a long lunch, not from the one man who’s supposedly the adult in the EU.Pulpstar said:
I've alway rated Tusk ahead of the other EU presidents, but that comment is a serious misjudgement.grabcocque said:EU Council president Donald Tusk: 'Dear America, appreciate your allies. After all you don't have that many.'
Somebody page the burns unit, we've got a serious casualty coming in
Wait until Donald announces huge and massive and great reductions in US military numbers in Europe, bringing these lovely and wonderful servicemen and women back to their families in the USA. Oh, and maybe some huge tarrifs on EU cars too.0 -
MaxPB
I agree that it appears to be a strange way of calculating GDP figures, but this is consistent with how ONS calculate annualised figures, with GDP or inflation I believe.0 -
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just shows how easy it is to run a department if that bozo is longest serving.Theuniondivvie said:Who'd have thunk?
https://twitter.com/hijakejohnstone/status/10164204587350016000 -
Hmm, the existing way is to take current quarterly GDP and divide it by the previous quarter's GDP. The result (less 1) is the percentage growth. YoY is a bit weirder as it takes the current quarter divided by the same quarter in the previous year, rather than the current twelve months over the previous twelve months or the previous four quarters added up. I've not seen averages ever used in relation to GDP statistics, mainly because they don't make sense.Verulamius said:MaxPB
I agree that it appears to be a strange way of calculating GDP figures, but this is consistent with how ONS calculate annualised figures, with GDP or inflation I believe.0 -
what an idiotFrancisUrquhart said:Dad-of-two is so confident England will win the World Cup he's had THIS tattoo...
Dad-of-two Teddy Allen is so convinced England will win football's biggest tournament he’s had a special tattoo of captain Harry Kane inked on his thigh - with the words ‘World Cup winners’.
https://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/news/stoke-on-trent-news/dad-two-confident-england-win-17664160 -
Isn't it easy for him because the SNP do all the work in Holyrood?malcolmg said:
just shows how easy it is to run a department if that bozo is longest serving.Theuniondivvie said:Who'd have thunk?
https://twitter.com/hijakejohnstone/status/10164204587350016000 -
Oh dear... Having reached peak 'The Thick of It' last Friday at Chequers with the Cabinet no longer being trusted with their mobile phones, itt may now be that having fixed the problem of a leaking Cabinet, we now have leaks springing up elsewhere....Scott_P said:0 -
The malcontents are melting away. Theresa reigns supreme!Scott_P said:0 -
Mr. G, well, quite.
I think England might reach, and lose in, the final. Tattoos of destiny are just daft.0 -
If you are dividing one quarter by another quarter then using an average is the same as using a total.MaxPB said:
Hmm, the existing way is to take current quarterly GDP and divide it by the previous quarter's GDP. The result (less 1) is the percentage growth. YoY is a bit weirder as it takes the current quarter divided by the same quarter in the previous year, rather than the previous twelve months over the current twelve months or the previous four quarters added up. I've not seen averages ever used in relation to GDP statistics, mainly because they don't make sense.Verulamius said:MaxPB
I agree that it appears to be a strange way of calculating GDP figures, but this is consistent with how ONS calculate annualised figures, with GDP or inflation I believe.0 -
Reminds me of the London woman who bet £100k on Remain winning the EU referendum.FrancisUrquhart said:Dad-of-two is so confident England will win the World Cup he's had THIS tattoo...
Dad-of-two Teddy Allen is so convinced England will win football's biggest tournament he’s had a special tattoo of captain Harry Kane inked on his thigh - with the words ‘World Cup winners’.
https://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/news/stoke-on-trent-news/dad-two-confident-england-win-1766416
http://uk.businessinsider.com/william-hill-says-londoner-lumped-100000-on-eu-referendum-2016-50 -
Yup.Stark_Dawning said:The malcontents are melting away. Theresa reigns supreme!
Without cabinet cover and the intellectual heavyweights of (checks notes) Davis and Johnson, the Ultras are a busted flush.0 -
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It's the raw GDP figure that is used on a quarterly basis. If we applied the same method to the new series we'd add up the monthly index entries for the current three months and then subtract the sum of the preceding three months. The issue the is that using the ONS method, each month has the same weight (one third), but GDP growth doesn't work that way because it is a cumulative statistic. The quarterly national accounts, are done on a quarterly basis, not by coming up with an average of the current three months.OblitusSumMe said:
If you are dividing one quarter by another quarter then using an average is the same as using a total.MaxPB said:
Hmm, the existing way is to take current quarterly GDP and divide it by the previous quarter's GDP. The result (less 1) is the percentage growth. YoY is a bit weirder as it takes the current quarter divided by the same quarter in the previous year, rather than the previous twelve months over the current twelve months or the previous four quarters added up. I've not seen averages ever used in relation to GDP statistics, mainly because they don't make sense.Verulamius said:MaxPB
I agree that it appears to be a strange way of calculating GDP figures, but this is consistent with how ONS calculate annualised figures, with GDP or inflation I believe.0 -
Does a lot of entertaining apparently.OblitusSumMe said:
Isn't it easy for him because the SNP do all the work in Holyrood?malcolmg said:
just shows how easy it is to run a department if that bozo is longest serving.Theuniondivvie said:Who'd have thunk?
https://twitter.com/hijakejohnstone/status/1016420458735001600
'In 2015-16, the department, who promote “the best interests of Scotland within a stronger United Kingdom” spent £8987 on hospitality.
But in 2016-17 that skyrocketed to £61,641.73.'0 -
Love it how most of the remain camp who have slaughtered May for months now think she's wonderful.Scott_P said:
Yup.Stark_Dawning said:The malcontents are melting away. Theresa reigns supreme!
Without cabinet cover and the intellectual heavyweights of (checks notes) Davis and Johnson, the Ultras are a busted flush.
It's a delicious watch.0 -
sorry to indulge in a bit of whataboutery but hasnt she got a pretty dodgy record herself... She was well and truly caught out on camera a year or two ago....Scott_P said:0 -
No May is dreadful. Challenging Gordo for worst PM in living memory.Tykejohnno said:Love it how most of the remain camp who have slaughtered May for months now think she's wonderful.
It's a delicious watch.
And still seen off all the Brexiteers, which rather puts their quality into perspective.
As was noted this morning, all of the great offices of State are now held by Remainers. Because the Brexiteers appointed were shit!0 -
I suspect that I'd have to dig into the figures to understand the difference you are patiently trying to explain to me.MaxPB said:
It's the raw GDP figure that is used on a quarterly basis. If we applied the same method to the new series we'd add up the monthly index entries for the current three months and then subtract the sum of the preceding three months. The issue the is that using the ONS method, each month has the same weight (one third), but GDP growth doesn't work that way because it is a cumulative statistic. The quarterly national accounts, are done on a quarterly basis, not by coming up with an average of the current three months.OblitusSumMe said:
If you are dividing one quarter by another quarter then using an average is the same as using a total.MaxPB said:
Hmm, the existing way is to take current quarterly GDP and divide it by the previous quarter's GDP. The result (less 1) is the percentage growth. YoY is a bit weirder as it takes the current quarter divided by the same quarter in the previous year, rather than the previous twelve months over the current twelve months or the previous four quarters added up. I've not seen averages ever used in relation to GDP statistics, mainly because they don't make sense.Verulamius said:MaxPB
I agree that it appears to be a strange way of calculating GDP figures, but this is consistent with how ONS calculate annualised figures, with GDP or inflation I believe.0 -
So we can officially blame remain from now on for things going wrong ,thanks scott for that.Scott_P said:
No May is dreadful. Challenging Gordo for worst PM in living memory.Tykejohnno said:Love it how most of the remain camp who have slaughtered May for months now think she's wonderful.
It's a delicious watch.
And still seen off all the Brexiteers, which rather puts their quality into perspective.
As was noted this morning, all of the great offices of State are now held by Remainers. Because the Brexiteers appointed were shit!0
