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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters still make a 2018 exit for TMay the favourite but the
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters still make a 2018 exit for TMay the favourite but the price edges down a notch
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She'll win a VONC but this idea she could carry on with a majority of 1 is for the birds.
If her majority comes in under 100 her position will be untenable, IMO.
Simply no real reason for her to be PM.
Suffice to say is they are stupid enough to allow Theresa May to face the electorate a second time they will deserve the oblivion that will surely face them.
All the Corbyn scares were barely enough in 2017 but the Tories will be vastly more unpopular with their voters than they were in 2017 whenever they dare front up to face the electorate.
And that's without the probable added complication of a Farage comeback. Things are going to get very, very serious for the Conservatives.
Morning Malc - thanks for your comments and I hope you are well and enjoying the weather. Was in Gods own Country two weeks ago and return in 10 days for another week.
Hi G, been amazing , at least 6 weeks since we have had rain. Hope it holds for your return. Hope you and family are all well.
Mrs May didn't win a majority when UKIP polled less than 2%.
A good Tory leader knows how to win a majority with UKIP polling highly.
Also listening to the media this morning she seems to be gaining support across parties and of course that is important for voting in the HOC. I am surprised at the noticeable friendly attitude from opposition politicians
For what it's worth, I expect her to see the year out. The absence of a viable alternative course of action makes any challenge to her futile. That doesn't mean that she won't be ousted in a nihilist spasm but it markedly reduces the chances of that happening.
That won't happen next time.
TM will not lead into the next GE
May and Remainer BINO Tories would then need to hope they win back enough Remain 2015 Cameron voting Tories who defected to the LDs or Labour or stayed at home in 2017 to counteract that
project fear 3 - the hand of Corbyn - puts them once again in the position where they are appealing to wallets in a electorate which is focused on values.
since the tory remainers have learnt nothing from their referendum defeat it could be interesting times
he screwed up
So many of the normal rules no longer seem to apply.
https://twitter.com/TheRedRoar/status/1016358993885835264
Makes a counterweight to Ann Marie Waters Islamophobia towards Humza Yousaf I suppose.
Cliff-drop Brexit has a substantial constituency I'd say, perhaps 10-15%.
If we get any kind of deal, there will be a narrative (NB 'a' narrative, there will be competing ones) that every time something could be better, the reason it isn't is that we're still shackled to the EU.
https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1016642958324625408
https://twitter.com/thejimsmith/status/1016642370207670276
I do agree if she was to concede too much then that could be problematic and she must ensure that she stengthens preparation for a no deal case
Even after 2017 & 2018 there seems to be so much complacency about May....
Like "Remain" in the referendum there simply aren't any good reasons to vote Conservative under the current regime.
He'll campaign on Brexit In Name Only Vs Brexit Means Brexit. He'll take Theresa May's very own slogan and run with it...
And he'll probably cause all kinds of havoc to both Con and Lab but the main party to be hit at the next election will be Con because they are the one's who said Brexit Means Brexit and then sold their Leave voters down the river.
May 2017 votes 13,636,684
Dave 2015 Scottish seats 1
May 2017 Scottish seats 13
The only election they got more than 5% was 2015 when they got 12%.
Who said UKIP was dead?
RIP
1) The number of Labour voted in 2015 and 2017
2) The Tory lead over Labour in 2015 and 2017
3) The number of Tory and Labour MPs elected in 2015 and 2017
Not sure it has quite so many different recordings.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUrtiFc78VY
3 Lions v Norwich Cathedrals Choristers.
Little mention of May on the other hand
https://mobile.twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1016651900190646272
All children and the trainer are out of the caves and all are safe.
Let us all agree that is fabulous news today
Trump is going to cause chaos over the next few days
May 2017 42.4%
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/876894066478329857
Other nuggets from that YouGov poll:
- "How well or badly do you think the government are doing at negotiating Britain's exit from the European Union?" Well 18%, badly 66% Net -48%. Worst net score on record by some margin. Back in mid April score for Leave voters was net 0%. Now net -44%.
- 7% of 2017 Con voters would now vote UKIP. 2 weeks ago it was 3% and the Conservatives were 5% ahead.
Edit: there are still four rescuers in the cave that need to be retrieved.
You're kidding yourself if you don't think there is at least 10% of the country who don't much care about economic damage, but really, really care about immigration control/sovereignty/hating on the EU.
May 2017 317
Lucky Ruth won those extra seats in Scotland wasn't it
Given the Civil Service it would be very plausible to come up with a CETA-based alternative.
Hopefully the Brits involved will find themselves appropriately rewarded.
https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1016639487756161024