politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Unless Moggsy has the backing of 158 CON MPs for his oust TMay
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Unless Moggsy has the backing of 158 CON MPs for his oust TMay move this threat is all piss and wind
Telegraph
Comments
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First, like Denmarks goal.0
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Wouldn't take 159. More than 125 and she would walk. However, can't see it. Brexiters have pushed through their wishes that the deal stands as negotiated.
Like a number of things, they ought to have thought about it in more depth.
Too late now if TM shafts them.0 -
There's a difference between not thinking it the right moment to overthrow her and actually voting for her, though. I think Mike is right that if she wins a confidence vote decisively she'll be much stronger, and she'll probably lead the Tories in 2022. Do moderate Tories necessarily think that a good idea? Or might they feel that if the decision is forced on them now, they'd better move her out and use the supposed non-Brexiteer majority to put a more public-friendly and decisive non-Brexiteer in.
Gambles all round!0 -
Does ERG have any more idea about Brexit than anyone else? The Telegraph piece makes it clear Jacob Rees-Mogg is opposed to a bad deal but is less clear on how to achieve a good one, or even what a good deal would look like beyond some rhetoric about freedom.0
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It is because we're headed for a Norway arrangement not Canada.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times0 -
FPT:
And yet, despite winning three elections with convincing majorities, and ‘trying to hold the West together’ he is now a politically toxic figure. He’s arguably a big reason as to why we have both Brexit and Corbyn.viewcode said:
And yet Blair won three election victories with never less than a convincing majority and was arguably the single politician who tried to keep the West together, before we deteriorated into a bunch of squabbling children.The_Apocalypse said:This. Macron is the French Tony Blair. We know how that situation ended (Blair has 76% disapproval rating as of June).
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Well she would say that wouldn't she? Thatcher had the same plan too.TheScreamingEagles said:It is because we're headed for a Norway arrangement not Canada.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times0 -
Different rules in 1990.dixiedean said:
Well she would say that wouldn't she? Thatcher had the same plan too.TheScreamingEagles said:It is because we're headed for a Norway arrangement not Canada.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times0 -
This is TM the PM's golden opportunity to cast aside the Loonies.0
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Same old Conservative Party. Can't see it myself.TheScreamingEagles said:
Different rules in 1990.dixiedean said:
Well she would say that wouldn't she? Thatcher had the same plan too.TheScreamingEagles said:It is because we're headed for a Norway arrangement not Canada.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times0 -
No we're not, the Commons has already voted down a Norway style arrangement after voting to leave the single market by a 200 vote majority, freedom of movement is not an option in the short term.TheScreamingEagles said:It is because we're headed for a Norway arrangement not Canada.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times
So a simple Canada style free trade agreement, as mentioned in the article as the main alternative, remains the most likely outcome even in big business would prefer the single market
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surby said:
This is TM the PM's golden opportunity to cast aside the Loonies.
I don't agree with Oliver Robbins approach, but it's a bit harsh to call him that.
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+1.dixiedean said:
Same old Conservative Party. Can't see it myself.TheScreamingEagles said:
Different rules in 1990.dixiedean said:
Well she would say that wouldn't she? Thatcher had the same plan too.TheScreamingEagles said:It is because we're headed for a Norway arrangement not Canada.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times0 -
Absolutely right. We cannot look at this through the prism of 1990 because the rules have changed changed so much. Then you sought to oust a conservative leader by pressing for a leadership election. Now the only way of getting rid of an incumbent is to go through the vote of confidence process which then clears the way for a leadership contest.TheScreamingEagles said:
Different rules in 1990.dixiedean said:
Well she would say that wouldn't she? Thatcher had the same plan too.TheScreamingEagles said:It is because we're headed for a Norway arrangement not Canada.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times0 -
You say that like it means anything whatsoever.HYUFD said:
No we're not, the Commons has already voted down a Norway style arrangement after voting to leave the single market by a 200 vote majority, freedom of movement is not an option in the short term.TheScreamingEagles said:It is because we're headed for a Norway arrangement not Canada.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times
So a simple Canada style free trade agreement, as mentioned in the article as the main alternative, remains the most likely outcome even in big business would prefer the single market
If the EU refuses to offer anything other than Norway its entirely possible or even probable that the Commons will vote differently next time.0 -
Am I right in thinking that if May wins a confidence vote, the Tory rules mean she's untouchable for a year? That would be ideal for her heading in to the final stretch of Brexit negotiations. Perhaps Rees-Mogg is doing May a favour.0
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In theory more than in practice. She'd still need her own MPs votes to pass any legislation at all in the Commons.williamglenn said:Am I right in thinking that if May wins a confidence vote, the Tory rules mean she's untouchable for a year? That would be ideal for her heading in to the final stretch of Brexit negotiations. Perhaps Rees-Mogg is doing May a favour.
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Yes.williamglenn said:Am I right in thinking that if May wins a confidence vote, the Tory rules mean she's untouchable for a year? That would be ideal for her heading in to the final stretch of Brexit negotiations. Perhaps Rees-Mogg is doing May a favour.
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It's not a bad point, but I personally feel that Blair is the designated sin-eater for the Noughties. Post 9-11 and pre-Iraq we felt that Islamism and terrorism could be defeated militarily by the united forces of the West, and Blair was a big part of that. That approach failed, but what we are left with is worse: a feeling of powerlessness and the need to retreat from a hostile world. I prefer the former to the latter, so I have sympathy for him.The_Apocalypse said:FPT:
And yet, despite winning three elections with convincing majorities, and ‘trying to hold the West together’ he is now a politically toxic figure. He’s arguably a big reason as to why we have both Brexit and Corbyn.viewcode said:
And yet Blair won three election victories with never less than a convincing majority and was arguably the single politician who tried to keep the West together, before we deteriorated into a bunch of squabbling children.The_Apocalypse said:This. Macron is the French Tony Blair. We know how that situation ended (Blair has 76% disapproval rating as of June).
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They'd be playing with fire trying to switch her for another moderate, since theoretically the members are supposed to choose from the final two, and I doubt they have the numbers to be confident they can stitch up both spots on the ballot.NickPalmer said:she'll probably lead the Tories in 2022. Do moderate Tories necessarily think that a good idea? Or might they feel that if the decision is forced on them now, they'd better move her out and use the supposed non-Brexiteer majority to put a more public-friendly and decisive non-Brexiteer in.
But if I'm wrong then traditional way to handle the situation would be to send in a delegation asking for a commitment to stand down after Brexit. She could of course give such a commitment then try to Blair down, but at that point a year will have elapsed and presumably they'll still have the numbers.0 -
Yes but as Nick Palmer points out (second comment) there is a paradox -- the rule that appears to strengthen the leader actually incentivises all MPs with doubts about Theresa May to vote against her now while they have the chance, or risk her leading them at the next general election.williamglenn said:Am I right in thinking that if May wins a confidence vote, the Tory rules mean she's untouchable for a year? That would be ideal for her heading in to the final stretch of Brexit negotiations. Perhaps Rees-Mogg is doing May a favour.
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The first rule of politics is to be able to count. JRM is pretending he can't.
He hasn't the numbers and he knows it.0 -
Mike Smithson = Monkish times0
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Which is why I maintain she would need a substantial win in any confidence vote. Anything less than 60-40 or so, and she would be asked to stand down "for the good and unity of the Party".Philip_Thompson said:
In theory more than in practice. She'd still need her own MPs votes to pass any legislation at all in the Commons.williamglenn said:Am I right in thinking that if May wins a confidence vote, the Tory rules mean she's untouchable for a year? That would be ideal for her heading in to the final stretch of Brexit negotiations. Perhaps Rees-Mogg is doing May a favour.
Which experience tells me overrides all other considerations.0 -
His idea of a good deal is one in which we are out and completely unconnected to anything to do with europeans. As he represents the 18th century, that probably includes stopping those bizarre flying machine contraptions that make a noise when they fly over his estate.DecrepitJohnL said:Does ERG have any more idea about Brexit than anyone else? The Telegraph piece makes it clear Jacob Rees-Mogg is opposed to a bad deal but is less clear on how to achieve a good one, or even what a good deal would look like beyond some rhetoric about freedom.
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Macron is very typical of a lot of the French people I come across in my line of work - relaxed about using English, outward-looking, innovative, business-friendly, socially liberal and very keen for internal change. They are deeply impressive and they seem to be making waves domestically. I think that France, like Spain, has half a chance. The lost cause is Italy. If it’s all going to fall to pieces that’s where it will happen.SeanT said:fpt
rottenborough said:
"I'm losing the plot on this one. Aren't France the cheese eating surrender monkeys?"
Macron is trying to change that image of France (along with everything else). He will probably fail (most politicians do) but just occasionally a Thatcher sneaks through and really does transform a nation.
Macron's problem, ironically, is the fact that France is so wedded to the EU, the euro and Germany. He needs Merkel's permission to Federalise Europe (so the euro will work). Then he needs to persuade the Dutch and the Swedes, Italians, Austrians, etc.
Macron is going to be a fascinating test case: can one capable, charismatic, and constitutionally very powerful politician change his country WITHIN the strictures of the EU? If Macron does this, then Brexit was a mistake.
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We won't end up in the Single Market in the short term, for starters MPs have already voted to Leave the Single Market by a 200 vote majority including a significant number of Labour MPs in Leave seats like Caroline Flint who know it would be political suicide to leave FOM in place and try to be re elected. Even Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the Single Market though he wants to stay in a Customs Union.SeanT said:
As I predicted on the day after the referendum, we will end up in the Single Market AND the CU, only they will call both of them something else, to save face. A classic euro-fudge. Which leaves us pretty fucked, but at least not completely destroyed.TheScreamingEagles said:It is because we're headed for a Norway arrangement not Canada.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times
Britons should be cheered, this is probably the best result you can hope to get from the awfulness that is Article 50. This Article has power, of course, only because it appears, for the first time, in the Lisbon Treaty (aka the EU Constitution), a document on which every major party offered us a referendum. A referendum which we never got.
If we'd had a vote we'd have voted NO and we wouldn't be here in this terrible position. A50 is designed to give the EU all the power and the departing nation such a buggering it would never be triggered. But Blair and Brown forced the Treaty through, without our promised plebiscite.
I distinctly remember Peter Hain calling the Lisbon Treaty just a "tidying up exercise", a mere bit of editing. And yet inside it was Article 50. Well done Peter. And well done Nick Palmer, who came on here and chortled as he voted through the Lisbon Treaty in parliament, sans plebiscite.
So here you are, europhiles and Remainers, you're not fucking chortling now, are you? Twats.0 -
No. What's May's majority in the Commons? Winning a confidence vote won't change the fact she threw Cameron's majority away and is at the mercy of everyone.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.williamglenn said:Am I right in thinking that if May wins a confidence vote, the Tory rules mean she's untouchable for a year? That would be ideal for her heading in to the final stretch of Brexit negotiations. Perhaps Rees-Mogg is doing May a favour.
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No it isn't, for starters Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the Single Market and many Labour MPs in heavily Leave seats will never commit political suicide by voting for the EEA and FOM.Philip_Thompson said:
You say that like it means anything whatsoever.HYUFD said:
No we're not, the Commons has already voted down a Norway style arrangement after voting to leave the single market by a 200 vote majority, freedom of movement is not an option in the short term.TheScreamingEagles said:It is because we're headed for a Norway arrangement not Canada.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times
So a simple Canada style free trade agreement, as mentioned in the article as the main alternative, remains the most likely outcome even in big business would prefer the single market
If the EU refuses to offer anything other than Norway its entirely possible or even probable that the Commons will vote differently next time.
Barnier has said we can have a basic Canada deal but in a choice between WTO terms and full FOM and staying in the EEA then WTO terms will win in the short term if the Leave vote is to mean anything at all0 -
Not really - as @Philip_Thompson points out, it's not just the party rules that matter, and failing a vote of confidence in the Commons would clearly trump party rules. It would be a nuclear option for Tory refuseniks, of course.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.williamglenn said:Am I right in thinking that if May wins a confidence vote, the Tory rules mean she's untouchable for a year? That would be ideal for her heading in to the final stretch of Brexit negotiations. Perhaps Rees-Mogg is doing May a favour.
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No idea how we end up staying in THE Customs Union.HYUFD said:
We won't end up in the Single Market in the short term, for starters MPs have already voted to Leave the Single Market by a 200 vote majority including a significant number of Labour MPs in Leave seats like Caroline Flint who know it would be political suicide to leave FOM in place and try to be re elected. Even Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the Single Market though he wants to stay in a Customs Union.SeanT said:
As I predicted on the day after the referendum, we will end up in the Single Market AND the CU, only they will call both of them something else, to save face. A classic euro-fudge. Which leaves us pretty fucked, but at least not completely destroyed.TheScreamingEagles said:It is because we're headed for a Norway arrangement not Canada.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times
Britons should be cheered, this is probably the best result you can hope to get from the awfulness that is Article 50. This Article has power, of course, only because it appears, for the first time, in the Lisbon Treaty (aka the EU Constitution), a document on which every major party offered us a referendum. A referendum which we never got.
If we'd had a vote we'd have voted NO and we wouldn't be here in this terrible position. A50 is designed to give the EU all the power and the departing nation such a buggering it would never be triggered. But Blair and Brown forced the Treaty through, without our promised plebiscite.
I distinctly remember Peter Hain calling the Lisbon Treaty just a "tidying up exercise", a mere bit of editing. And yet inside it was Article 50. Well done Peter. And well done Nick Palmer, who came on here and chortled as he voted through the Lisbon Treaty in parliament, sans plebiscite.
So here you are, europhiles and Remainers, you're not fucking chortling now, are you? Twats.0 -
Nuclear as MAD. Any Tory who votes against the government is a Commons confidence vote will be expelled from the party.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not really - as @Philip_Thompson points out, it's not just the party rules that matter, and failing a vote of confidence in the Commons would clearly trump party rules. It would be a nuclear option for Tory refuseniks, of course.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.williamglenn said:Am I right in thinking that if May wins a confidence vote, the Tory rules mean she's untouchable for a year? That would be ideal for her heading in to the final stretch of Brexit negotiations. Perhaps Rees-Mogg is doing May a favour.
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So we're going to go from being in Europe and helping to run it, to being out of Europe but bring run by it.SeanT said:
As I predicted on the day after the referendum, we will end up in the Single Market AND the CU, only they will call both of them something else, to save face. A classic euro-fudge. Which leaves us pretty fucked, but at least not completely destroyed.TheScreamingEagles said:It is because we're headed for a Norway arrangement not Canada.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times
Britons should be cheered, this is probably the best result you can hope to get from the awfulness that is Article 50. This Article has power, of course, only because it appears, for the first time, in the Lisbon Treaty (aka the EU Constitution), a document on which every major party offered us a referendum. A referendum which we never got.
If we'd had a vote we'd have voted NO and we wouldn't be here in this terrible position. A50 is designed to give the EU all the power and the departing nation such a buggering it would never be triggered. But Blair and Brown forced the Treaty through, without our promised plebiscite.
I distinctly remember Peter Hain calling the Lisbon Treaty just a "tidying up exercise", a mere bit of editing. And yet inside it was Article 50. Well done Peter. And well done Nick Palmer, who came on here and chortled as he voted through the Lisbon Treaty in parliament, sans plebiscite.
So here you are, europhiles and Remainers, you're not fucking chortling now, are you? Twats.
Epic negotiation by David Davis who seems to have taken 2 years to achieve something he could have come home with on day 1.
And long term how sustainable will it be to have to implement rules we had no involvement in writing.0 -
A job offer is technically not FOM especially if that requirement applies from day 1 so that does not mean staying fully in the single market even if we have some alignment with it and accept some ECJ jurisdiction.SeanT said:
We will end up with a sort of Freedom of Movement (if you have a job offer) and also accepting ECJ rule over the Single Market (with which we will "align", even as we leave)HYUFD said:
We won't end up in the Single Market in the short term, for starters MPs have already voted to Leave the Single Market by a 200 vote majority including a significant number of Labour MPs in Leave seats like Caroline Flint who know it would be political suicide to leave FOM in place and try to be re elected. Even Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the Single Market though he wants to stay in a Customs Union.SeanT said:
As I predicted on the day after the referendum, we will end up in the Single Market AND the CU, only they will call both of them something else, to save face. A classic euro-fudge. Which leaves us pretty fucked, but at least not completely destroyed.TheScreamingEagles said:It is because we're headed for a Norway arrangement not Canada.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times
Britons should be cheered, this is probably the best result you can hope to get from the awfulness that is Article 50. This Article has power, of course, only because it appears, for the first time, in the Lisbon Treaty (aka the EU Constitution), a document on which every major party offered us a referendum. A referendum which we never got.
If we'd had a vote we'd have voted NO and we wouldn't be here in this terrible position. A5ite.
So here you are, europhiles and Remainers, you're not fucking chortling now, are you? Twats.
It's incremental. We gain some sovereignty, lose some power. Or vice verse, if you prefer. I do not believe the Commons would accept Hard Brexit.
In a decade Chuka Umunna might be able to become PM on a return to the EEA with full FOM and Customs Union ticket, fair enough but for now we have to respect the Leave vote in full and that means replacing FOM with new controls, leaving the EEA and trying to do our own trade deals. The Commons has already voted by a 200 vote majority to leave the single market0 -
I don't know about Macron. My French colleagues say he behaves like a king. There is some symbolism like the reintroduction of national service for a week or two, and teaching children to sing the national anthem, which one imagines most of them can do anyway. Beyond that, Macron has failed to persuade Trump or Merkel (separately) to go along with his grander schemes -- so like Blair, he may overestimate his influence on the world stage. In the immediate term, France's good run in the World Cup probably helps a bit.SouthamObserver said:
Macron is very typical of a lot of the French people I come across in my line of work - relaxed about using English, outward-looking, innovative, business-friendly, socially liberal and very keen for internal change. They are deeply impressive and they seem to be making waves domestically. I think that France, like Spain, has half a chance. The lost cause is Italy. If it’s all going to fall to pieces that’s where it will happen.SeanT said:fpt
rottenborough said:
"I'm losing the plot on this one. Aren't France the cheese eating surrender monkeys?"
Macron is trying to change that image of France (along with everything else). He will probably fail (most politicians do) but just occasionally a Thatcher sneaks through and really does transform a nation.
Macron's problem, ironically, is the fact that France is so wedded to the EU, the euro and Germany. He needs Merkel's permission to Federalise Europe (so the euro will work). Then he needs to persuade the Dutch and the Swedes, Italians, Austrians, etc.
Macron is going to be a fascinating test case: can one capable, charismatic, and constitutionally very powerful politician change his country WITHIN the strictures of the EU? If Macron does this, then Brexit was a mistake.0 -
Looks like next weekend the resignation of Boris or the collapse of May's government might have to compete with an England QF world cup game.
Poor timing everyone.0 -
No there's absolutely no guarantee at all that the Commons would vote for WTO terms. Quite the opposite.HYUFD said:
No it isn't, for starters Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the Single Market and many Labour MPs in heavily Leave seats will never commit political suicide by voting for the EEA and FOM.Philip_Thompson said:
You say that like it means anything whatsoever.HYUFD said:
No we're not, the Commons has already voted down a Norway style arrangement after voting to leave the single market by a 200 vote majority, freedom of movement is not an option in the short term.TheScreamingEagles said:It is because we're headed for a Norway arrangement not Canada.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times
So a simple Canada style free trade agreement, as mentioned in the article as the main alternative, remains the most likely outcome even in big business would prefer the single market
If the EU refuses to offer anything other than Norway its entirely possible or even probable that the Commons will vote differently next time.
Barnier has said we can have a basic Canada deal but in a choice between WTO terms and full FOM and staying in the EEA then WTO terms will win in the short term if the Leave vote is to mean anything at all
Let's not forget that last time both the Tories and Labour put a three-line-whip forbidding their MPs from voting for the Single Market. For the Tories to vote against and for Labour to abstain. This because the UK was seeking a bespoke deal and both parties are currently officially at least backing that.
If the UK stops seeking a bespoke deal then that would change everything. If May agrees to sign us up to the Single Market then rather than the Tories having a three line whip to vote against the Single Market they'd have a three line whip to vote for it. There'd be a substantial number of rebels but a large number would go with the change in whip to go for the Single Market over WTO.
Virtually all Labour MPs too would prefer Single Market over WTO if that is the stark choice.
All other MPs barring perhaps DUP would too.
The Commons arithmetic changes dramatically once a bespoke deal is off the table and the whip is applied differently.0 -
It’s not big business. It’s business. And if the Conservatives lose the support of business I would not like to bet that they have a future.HYUFD said:
No we're not, the Commons has already voted down a Norway style arrangement after voting to leave the single market by a 200 vote majority, freedom of movement is not an option in the short term.TheScreamingEagles said:It is because we're headed for a Norway arrangement not Canada.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times
So a simple Canada style free trade agreement, as mentioned in the article as the main alternative, remains the most likely outcome even in big business would prefer the single market0 -
Expelled by whom? There would be a new leader, around whom the whole party, including those who abstained (more likely than voting against, of course) would unite.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nuclear as MAD. Any Tory who votes against the government is a Commons confidence vote will be expelled from the party.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not really - as @Philip_Thompson points out, it's not just the party rules that matter, and failing a vote of confidence in the Commons would clearly trump party rules. It would be a nuclear option for Tory refuseniks, of course.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.williamglenn said:Am I right in thinking that if May wins a confidence vote, the Tory rules mean she's untouchable for a year? That would be ideal for her heading in to the final stretch of Brexit negotiations. Perhaps Rees-Mogg is doing May a favour.
(To be clear, I'm not recommending this course of action. Merely exploring how the ultras might see it).0 -
Neither May nor Corbyn support that either, Corbyn is the biggest ally Brexit has at the moment as he completely neutralises the centre left liberal pro Remain, pro Soft Brexit camp leaving May and the Tories with little opposition in the Brexit that will be implementedrottenborough said:
No idea how we end up staying in THE Customs Union.HYUFD said:
We won't end up in the Single Market in the short term, for starters MPs have already voted to Leave the Single Market by a 200 vote majority including a significant number of Labour MPs in Leave seats like Caroline Flint who know it would be political suicide to leave FOM in place and try to be re elected. Even Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the Single Market though he wants to stay in a Customs Union.SeanT said:
As I predicted on the day after the referendum, we will end up in the Single Market AND the CU, only they will call both of them something else, to save face. A classic euro-fudge. Which leaves us pretty fucked, but at least not completely destroyed.TheScreamingEagles said:It is because we're headed for a Norway arrangement not Canada.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times
Britons should be cheered, this is probably the best result you can hope to get from the awfulness that is Article 50. This Article has power, of course, only because it appears, for the first time, in the Lisbon Treaty (aka the EU Constitution), a document on which every major party offered us a referendum. A referendum which we never got.
If we'd had a vote we'd have voted NO and we wouldn't be here in this terrible position. A50 is designed to give the EU all the power and the departing nation such a buggering it would never be triggered. But Blair and Brown forced the Treaty through, without our promised plebiscite.
I distinctly remember Peter Hain calling the Lisbon Treaty just a "tidying up exercise", a mere bit of editing. And yet inside it was Article 50. Well done Peter. And well done Nick Palmer, who came on here and chortled as he voted through the Lisbon Treaty in parliament, sans plebiscite.
So here you are, europhiles and Remainers, you're not fucking chortling now, are you? Twats.0 -
Tory Brexiteers will go along with whatever miserable deal May comes up with so that we leave treaties on 29th March...
But 30th March 2019 Theresa really will be a dead woman walking (and this "deal" her and Robbins have cookied up with the EU virtually guarantees a Leaver will follow her into Downing St.)0 -
Depends where the job offer is made. If you can enter the UK and then look for a job it’s pretty much what we have now, except for automatic access to the NHS.HYUFD said:
A job offer is technically not FOM especially if that requirement applies from day 1 so that does not mean staying fully in the single market even if we have some alignment with it and accept some ECJ jurisdiction.SeanT said:
We will end up with a sort of Freedom of Movement (if you have a job offer) and also accepting ECJ rule over the Single Market (with which we will "align", even as we leave)HYUFD said:
We won't end up in the Single Market in the short term, for starters MPs have already voted to Leave the Single Market by a 200 vote majority including a significant number of Labour MPs in Leave seats like Caroline Flint who know it would be political suicide to leave FOM in place and try to be re elected. Even Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the Single Market though he wants to stay in a Customs Union.SeanT said:
As I predicted on the day after the referendum, we will end up in the Single Market AND the CU, only they will call both of them something else, to save face. A classic euro-fudge. Which leaves us pretty fucked, but at least not completely destroyed.TheScreamingEagles said:It is because we're headed for a Norway arrangement not Canada.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times
Britons should be cheered, this is probably the best result you can hope to get from the awfulness that is Article 50. This Article has power, of course, only because it appears, for the first time, in the Lisbon Treaty (aka the EU Constitution), a document on which every major party offered us a referendum. A referendum which we never got.
If we'd had a vote we'd have voted NO and we wouldn't be here in this terrible position. A5ite.
So here you are, europhiles and Remainers, you're not fucking chortling now, are you? Twats.
It's incremental. We gain some sovereignty, lose some power. Or vice verse, if you prefer. I do not believe the Commons would accept Hard Brexit.
In a decade Chuka Umunna might be able to become PM on a return to the EEA with full FOM and Customs Union ticket, fair enough but for now we have to respect the Leave vote in full and that means replacing FOM with new controls, leaving the EEA and trying to do our own trade deals. The Commons has already voted by a 200 vote majority to leave the single market
0 -
But they could vote against virtually every other three line whip without being expelled. Good luck running a minority government once say a hundred of your own MPs have voted No Confidence.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nuclear as MAD. Any Tory who votes against the government is a Commons confidence vote will be expelled from the party.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not really - as @Philip_Thompson points out, it's not just the party rules that matter, and failing a vote of confidence in the Commons would clearly trump party rules. It would be a nuclear option for Tory refuseniks, of course.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.williamglenn said:Am I right in thinking that if May wins a confidence vote, the Tory rules mean she's untouchable for a year? That would be ideal for her heading in to the final stretch of Brexit negotiations. Perhaps Rees-Mogg is doing May a favour.
0 -
Macron is basically Trudeau with more brains but is probably the most powerful western leader at the moment at least beyond their own bordersDecrepitJohnL said:
I don't know about Macron. My French colleagues say he behaves like a king. There is some symbolism like the reintroduction of national service for a week or two, and teaching children to sing the national anthem, which one imagines most of them can do anyway. Beyond that, Macron has failed to persuade Trump or Merkel (separately) to go along with his grander schemes -- so like Blair, he may overestimate his influence on the world stage. In the immediate term, France's good run in the World Cup probably helps a bit.SouthamObserver said:
Macron is very typical of a lot of the French people I come across in my line of work - relaxed about using English, outward-looking, innovative, business-friendly, socially liberal and very keen for internal change. They are deeply impressive and they seem to be making waves domestically. I think that France, like Spain, has half a chance. The lost cause is Italy. If it’s all going to fall to pieces that’s where it will happen.SeanT said:fpt
rottenborough said:
"I'm losing the plot on this one. Aren't France the cheese eating surrender monkeys?"
Macron is trying to change that image of France (along with everything else). He will probably fail (most politicians do) but just occasionally a Thatcher sneaks through and really does transform a nation.
Macron's problem, ironically, is the fact that France is so wedded to the EU, the euro and Germany. He needs Merkel's permission to Federalise Europe (so the euro will work). Then he needs to persuade the Dutch and the Swedes, Italians, Austrians, etc.
Macron is going to be a fascinating test case: can one capable, charismatic, and constitutionally very powerful politician change his country WITHIN the strictures of the EU? If Macron does this, then Brexit was a mistake.0 -
I found this piece from the New Statesmen pretty interesting: https://www.newstatesman.com/world/north-america/2018/04/domestic-issues-emmanuel-macron-and-donald-trump-are-more-alike-you#ampDecrepitJohnL said:
I don't know about Macron. My French colleagues say he behaves like a king. There is some symbolism like the reintroduction of national service for a week or two, and teaching children to sing the national anthem, which one imagines most of them can do anyway. Beyond that, Macron has failed to persuade Trump or Merkel (separately) to go along with his grander schemes -- so like Blair, he may overestimate his influence on the world stage. In the immediate term, France's good run in the World Cup probably helps a bit.SouthamObserver said:
Macron is very typical of a lot of the French people I come across in my line of work - relaxed about using English, outward-looking, innovative, business-friendly, socially liberal and very keen for internal change. They are deeply impressive and they seem to be making waves domestically. I think that France, like Spain, has half a chance. The lost cause is Italy. If it’s all going to fall to pieces that’s where it will happen.SeanT said:fpt
rottenborough said:
"I'm losing the plot on this one. Aren't France the cheese eating surrender monkeys?"
Macron is trying to change that image of France (along with everything else). He will probably fail (most politicians do) but just occasionally a Thatcher sneaks through and really does transform a nation.
Macron's problem, ironically, is the fact that France is so wedded to the EU, the euro and Germany. He needs Merkel's permission to Federalise Europe (so the euro will work). Then he needs to persuade the Dutch and the Swedes, Italians, Austrians, etc.
Macron is going to be a fascinating test case: can one capable, charismatic, and constitutionally very powerful politician change his country WITHIN the strictures of the EU? If Macron does this, then Brexit was a mistake.
From a few months ago now, certainly it reinforced my revised opinion about Macron.0 -
UNITE might persuade him otherwise shortly however.HYUFD said:
Neither May nor Corbyn support that either, Corbyn is the biggest ally Brexit has at the moment as he completely neutralises the centre left liberal pro Remain, pro Soft Brexit camp leaving May and the Tories with little opposition in the Brexit that will be implementedrottenborough said:
No idea how we end up staying in THE Customs Union.HYUFD said:
We won't end up in the Single Market in the short term, for starters MPs have already voted to Leave the Single Market by a 200 vote majority including a significant number of Labour MPs in Leave seats like Caroline Flint who know it would be political suicide to leave FOM in place and try to be re elected. Even Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the Single Market though he wants to stay in a Customs Union.SeanT said:
As I predicted on the day after the referendum, we will end up in the Single Market AND the CU, only they will call both of them something else, to save face. A classic euro-fudge. Which leaves us pretty fucked, but at least not completely destroyed.TheScreamingEagles said:It is because we're headed for a Norway arrangement not Canada.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times
Britons should be cheered, this is probably the best result you can hope to get from the awfulness that is Article 50. This Article has power, of course, only because it appears, for the first time, in the Lisbon Treaty (aka the EU Constitution), a document on which every major party offered us a referendum. A referendum which we never got.
If we'd had a vote we'd have voted NO and we wouldn't be here in this terrible position. A50 is designed to give the EU all the power and the departing nation such a buggering it would never be triggered. But Blair and Brown forced the Treaty through, without our promised plebiscite.
I distinctly remember Peter Hain calling the Lisbon Treaty just a "tidying up exercise", a mere bit of editing. And yet inside it was Article 50. Well done Peter. And well done Nick Palmer, who came on here and chortled as he voted through the Lisbon Treaty in parliament, sans plebiscite.
So here you are, europhiles and Remainers, you're not fucking chortling now, are you? Twats.0 -
It won't be sustainable.JonathanD said:
So we're going to go from being in Europe and helping to run it, to being out of Europe but bring run by it.SeanT said:
As I predicted on the day after the referendum, we will end up in the Single Market AND the CU, only they will call both of them something else, to save face. A classic euro-fudge. Which leaves us pretty fucked, but at least not completely destroyed.TheScreamingEagles said:It is because we're headed for a Norway arrangement not Canada.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times
Britons should be cheered, this is probably the best result you can hope to get from the awfulness that is Article 50. This Article has power, of course, only because it appears, for the first time, in the Lisbon Treaty (aka the EU Constitution), a document on which every major party offered us a referendum. A referendum which we never got.
If we'd had a vote we'd have voted NO and we wouldn't be here in this terrible position. A50 is designed to give the EU all the power and the departing nation such a buggering it would never be triggered. But Blair and Brown forced the Treaty through, without our promised plebiscite.
I distinctly remember Peter Hain calling the Lisbon Treaty just a "tidying up exercise", a mere bit of editing. And yet inside it was Article 50. Well done Peter. And well done Nick Palmer, who came on here and chortled as he voted through the Lisbon Treaty in parliament, sans plebiscite.
So here you are, europhiles and Remainers, you're not fucking chortling now, are you? Twats.
Epic negotiation by David Davis who seems to have taken 2 years to achieve something he could have come home with on day 1.
And long term how sustainable will it be to have to implement rules we had no involvement in writing.0 -
My sense is that one of Macron’s principle aims is to make France feel better about itself after a long period of feeling very down. That’s where I think he differs from Blair, who chased after Bush because he felt the one area where Labour was vulnerable was over defence. Macron does not have that encumbrance.DecrepitJohnL said:
I don't know about Macron. My French colleagues say he behaves like a king. There is some symbolism like the reintroduction of national service for a week or two, and teaching children to sing the national anthem, which one imagines most of them can do anyway. Beyond that, Macron has failed to persuade Trump or Merkel (separately) to go along with his grander schemes -- so like Blair, he may overestimate his influence on the world stage. In the immediate term, France's good run in the World Cup probably helps a bit.SouthamObserver said:
Macron is very typical of a lot of the French people I come across in my line of work - relaxed about using English, outward-looking, innovative, business-friendly, socially liberal and very keen for internal change. They are deeply impressive and they seem to be making waves domestically. I think that France, like Spain, has half a chance. The lost cause is Italy. If it’s all going to fall to pieces that’s where it will happen.SeanT said:fpt
rottenborough said:
"I'm losing the plot on this one. Aren't France the cheese eating surrender monkeys?"
Macron is trying to change that image of France (along with everything else). He will probably fail (most politicians do) but just occasionally a Thatcher sneaks through and really does transform a nation.
Macron's problem, ironically, is the fact that France is so wedded to the EU, the euro and Germany. He needs Merkel's permission to Federalise Europe (so the euro will work). Then he needs to persuade the Dutch and the Swedes, Italians, Austrians, etc.
Macron is going to be a fascinating test case: can one capable, charismatic, and constitutionally very powerful politician change his country WITHIN the strictures of the EU? If Macron does this, then Brexit was a mistake.
0 -
By the party. At all levels.Richard_Nabavi said:
Expelled by whom? There would be a new leader, around whom the whole party, including those who abstained (more likely than voting against, of course) would unite.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nuclear as MAD. Any Tory who votes against the government is a Commons confidence vote will be expelled from the party.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not really - as @Philip_Thompson points out, it's not just the party rules that matter, and failing a vote of confidence in the Commons would clearly trump party rules. It would be a nuclear option for Tory refuseniks, of course.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.williamglenn said:Am I right in thinking that if May wins a confidence vote, the Tory rules mean she's untouchable for a year? That would be ideal for her heading in to the final stretch of Brexit negotiations. Perhaps Rees-Mogg is doing May a favour.
(To be clear, I'm not recommending this course of action. Merely exploring how the ultras might see it).
Voting against the government triggers either a Corbyn government or a general election that likely leads to a Corbyn government.
There won’t be time to replace Mrs May before the election so she takes the whip away from them and they can’t stand as Tory candidates in the general election.0 -
No you are completely wrong. Over 100 Labour MPs from mainly Remain seats voted to stay in the single market and the Commons still voted by a landslide to leave the single market as not only most Tory seats but most Labour seats too voted Leave and it would be political suicide for any MP in a Leave seat to vote to stay in the single market and leave FOM untouched.Philip_Thompson said:
No there's absolutely no guarantee at all that the Commons would vote for WTO terms. Quite the opposite.HYUFD said:
No it isn't, for starters Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the Single Market and many Labour MPs in heavily g at allPhilip_Thompson said:
You say that like to offer anything other than Norway its entirely possible or even probable that the Commons will vote differently next time.HYUFD said:
No we're not, the Comketost likely outcome even in big business would prefer the single marketTheScreamingEagles said:It is because we'rmes
Let's not forget that last time both the Tories and Labour put a three-line-whip forbidding their MPs from voting for the Single Market. For the Tories to vote against and for Labour to abstain. This because the UK was seeking a bespoke deal and both parties are currently officially at least backing that.
If the UK stops seeking a bespoke deal then that would change everything. If May agrees to sign us up to the Single Market then rather than the Tories having a three line whip to vote against the Single Market they'd have a three line whip to vote for it. There'd be a substantial number of rebels but a large number would go with the change in whip to go for the Single Market over WTO.
Virtually all Labour MPs too would prefer Single Market over WTO if that is the stark choice.
All other MPs barring perhaps DUP would too.
The Commons arithmetic changes dramatically once a bespoke deal is off the table and the whip is applied differently.
May would be deposed and lose a vote of no confidence in an instant if she left FOM in place and accepted staying in the single market, Tory members and Tory voters oppose staying in the EEA and FOM by a big majority in every poll and there could even be deselections of pro EEA Tory MPs by Leave Associations.
As I said most Labour MPs represent Leave seats and their constitutents are unequivocal they voted Leave to end FOM hence even former Remainers like Caroline Flint voted to leave the EEA and have made clear they will vote down any deal leaving FOM in place.
The LDs, SNP and Plaid and the Greens would vote for the Single Market but most of them represent Remain voting seats.0 -
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/01/7000-estate-agents-at-risk-of-going-to-the-wall-says-study
Any job loss is unfortunate but how many will feel sorry for these people ?0 -
No it is big business, many if not most small businesses voted Leave and of course farmers and the army and small business etc have a longer tradition of voting Tory than big business or the merchant classes who in the past were often Whig or LiberalRecidivist said:
It’s not big business. It’s business. And if the Conservatives lose the support of business I would not like to bet that they have a future.HYUFD said:
No we're not, the Commons has already voted down a Norway style arrangement after voting to leave the single market by a 200 vote majority, freedom of movement is not an option in the short term.TheScreamingEagles said:It is because we're headed for a Norway arrangement not Canada.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times
So a simple Canada style free trade agreement, as mentioned in the article as the main alternative, remains the most likely outcome even in big business would prefer the single market0 -
How can you read Labour's six tests and not conclude that the front bench's position is not merely tactical? By voting against the single market they hope to dig the government into a hole from which they can't escape.HYUFD said:No you are completely wrong. Over 100 Labour MPs from mainly Remain seats voted to stay in the single market and the Commons still voted by a landslide to leave the single market as not only most Tory seats but most Labour seats too voted Leave and it would be political suicide for any MP in a Leave seat to vote to stay in the single market and leave FOM untouched.
0 -
No you are wrong. The Tories had a three line whip to vote against the Single Market. If May signs a Single Market deal then only 100 MPs would have to follow May's new three line whip to back it to wipe out your so-called 200 MP majority.HYUFD said:No you are completely wrong. Over 100 Labour MPs from mainly Remain seats voted to stay in the single market and the Commons still voted by a landslide to leave the single market as not only most Tory seats but most Labour seats too voted Leave and it would be political suicide for any MP in a Leave seat to vote to stay in the single market and leave FOM untouched.
May would be deposed and lose a vote of no confidence in an instant if she left FOM in place and accepted staying in the single market, Tory members and Tory voters oppose staying in the EEA and FOM by a big majority in every poll and there could even be deselections of pro EEA Tory MPs by Leave Associations.
As I said most Labour MPs represent Leave seats and their constitutents are unequivocal they voted Leave to end FOM hence even former Remainers like Caroline Flint voted to leave the EEA and have made clear they will vote down any deal leaving FOM in place.
The LDs, SNP and Plaid and the Greens would vote for the Single Market but most of them represent Remain voting seats.
The majority meant nothing as a bespoke deal was still on the table. The moment May says its not on the table and this is our deal it all changes.0 -
At the bare minimum it would have to be you have a job offer as soon as you arrive at the UK border to mean anything from the Leave voteSouthamObserver said:
Depends where the job offer is made. If you can enter the UK and then look for a job it’s pretty much what we have now, except for automatic access to the NHS.HYUFD said:
A job offer is technically not FOM especially if that requirement applies from day 1 so that does not mean staying fully in the single market even if we have some alignment with it and accept some ECJ jurisdiction.SeanT said:
We will end up with a sort of Freedom of Movement (if you have a job offer) and also accepting ECJ rule over the Single Market (with which we will "align", even as we leave)HYUFD said:
We won't end up in the Single Market in the short term, for starters MPs have already voted to Leave the Single Market by a 200 vote majority including a significant number of Labour MPs in Leave seats like Caroline Flint who know it would be political suicide to leave FOM in place and try to be re elected. Even Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the Single Market though he wants to stay in a Customs Union.SeanT said:
As I predicted on the day after the referendum, we will end up in the Single Market AND the CU, only they will call both of them something else, to save face. A classic euro-fudge. Which leaves us pretty fucked, but at least not completely destroyed.TheScreamingEagles said:It is because we're headed for a Norway arrangement not Canada.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times
Britons should be cheered, this is probably the best result you can hope to get from the awfulness that is Article 50. This Article has power, of course, only because it appears, for the first time, in the Lisbon Treaty (aka the EU Constitution), a document on which every major party offered us a referendum. A referendum which we never got.
If we'd had a vote we'd have voted NO and we wouldn't be here in this terrible position. A5ite.
So here you are, europhiles and Remainers, you're not fucking chortling now, are you? Twats.
It's incremental. We gain some sovereignty, lose some power. Or vice verse, if you prefer. I do not believe the Commons would accept Hard Brexit.
In a decade Chuka Umunna might be able to become PM on a return to the EEA with full FOM and Customs Union ticket, fair enough but for now we have to respect the Leave vote in full and that means replacing FOM with new controls, leaving the EEA and trying to do our own trade deals. The Commons has already voted by a 200 vote majority to leave the single market0 -
Theresa seems to have forgotten the only reason (literally THE only reason) she is Prime Minister is to implement Brexit. It was how she become PM after Cameron left Downing St and it was the only reason she was allowed to continue in office after she ****** up her vanity election.
She owes everything she has and everything she is to Brexit and to Tory Brexiteers. When it turns out she's just been stringing everyone along she'll be in big, big trouble.
They're stuck with her until we leave on 29th March but 30th March 2019 I'm thinking the Tory Party will devour her...0 -
That's not quite right. There would be two weeks for someone to form a new government which did have the confidence of the House. That clearly wouldn't be a Corbyn government on the current Commons numbers, so there would be scope for some world-class arm-twisting to try to find a new (Conservative) PM who could command a majority. Tidying up the detail of the Conservative Party confirmation could be done later, presenting the party with a fait accompli.TheScreamingEagles said:
By the party. At all levels.Richard_Nabavi said:
Expelled by whom? There would be a new leader, around whom the whole party, including those who abstained (more likely than voting against, of course) would unite.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nuclear as MAD. Any Tory who votes against the government is a Commons confidence vote will be expelled from the party.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not really - as @Philip_Thompson points out, it's not just the party rules that matter, and failing a vote of confidence in the Commons would clearly trump party rules. It would be a nuclear option for Tory refuseniks, of course.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.williamglenn said:Am I right in thinking that if May wins a confidence vote, the Tory rules mean she's untouchable for a year? That would be ideal for her heading in to the final stretch of Brexit negotiations. Perhaps Rees-Mogg is doing May a favour.
(To be clear, I'm not recommending this course of action. Merely exploring how the ultras might see it).
Voting against the government triggers either a Corbyn government or a general election that likely leads to a Corbyn government.
There won’t be time to replace Mrs May before the election so she takes the whip away from them and they can’t stand as Tory candidates in the general election.
Of course, as you imply the more likely outcome would be chaos, an election, and God knows what after that.0 -
Only about 15 Labour MPs are threatened with Brexit. Most Leave voters even in Northern constituencies do not vote Labour.HYUFD said:
No you are completely wrong. Over 100 Labour MPs from mainly Remain seats voted to stay in the single market and the Commons still voted by a landslide to leave the single market as not only most Tory seats but most Labour seats too voted Leave and it would be political suicide for any MP in a Leave seat to vote to stay in the single market and leave FOM untouched.Philip_Thompson said:
No there's absolutely no guarantee at all that the Commons would vote for WTO terms. Quite the opposite.HYUFD said:
No it isn't, for starters Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the Single Market and many Labour MPs in heavily g at allPhilip_Thompson said:
You say that like to offer anything other than Norway its entirely possible or even probable that the Commons will vote differently next time.HYUFD said:
No we're not, the Comketost likely outcome even in big business would prefer the single marketTheScreamingEagles said:It is because we'rmes
Let's not forget that last time both the Tories and Labour put a three-line-whip forbidding their MPs from voting for the Single Market. For the Tories to vote against and for Labour to abstain. This because the UK was seeking a bespoke deal and both parties are currently officially at least backing that.
If the UK stops seeking a bespoke deal then that would change everything. If May agrees to sign us up to the Single Market then rather than the Tories having a three line whip to vote against the Single Market they'd have a three line whip to vote for it. There'd be a substantial number of rebels but a large number would go with the change in whip to go for the Single Market over WTO.
Virtually all Labour MPs too would prefer Single Market over WTO if that is the stark choice.
All other MPs barring perhaps DUP would too.
The Commons arithmetic changes dramatically once a bespoke deal is off the table and the whip is applied differently.
May would be deposed and lose a vote of no confidence in an instant if she left FOM in place and accepted staying in the single market, Tory members and Tory voters oppose staying in the EEA and FOM by a big majority in every poll and there could even be deselections of pro EEA Tory MPs by Leave Associations.
As I said most Labour MPs represent Leave seats and their constitutents are unequivocal they voted Leave to end FOM hence even former Remainers like Caroline Flint voted to leave the EEA and have made clear they will vote down any deal leaving FOM in place.
The LDs, SNP and Plaid and the Greens would vote for the Single Market but most of them represent Remain voting seats.0 -
Corbyn has his mandate from the membership and 40% of the vote of the UK electorate, there is no longer a trade union element in the Labour electoral college and Corbyn is focused on leave voting marginal Tory seats, he knows UNITE will back him over the Tories regardlessrottenborough said:
UNITE might persuade him otherwise shortly however.HYUFD said:
Neither May nor Corbyn support that either, Corbyn is the biggest ally Brexit has at the moment as he completely neutralises the centre left liberal pro Remain, pro Soft Brexit camp leaving May and the Tories with little opposition in the Brexit that will be implementedrottenborough said:
No idea how we end up staying in THE Customs Union.HYUFD said:
We won't end up in the Single Market in the short term, for starters MPs have already voted to Leave the Single Market by a 200 vote majority including a significant number of Labour MPs in Leave seats like Caroline Flint who know it would be political suicide to leave FOM in place and try to be re elected. Even Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the Single Market though he wants to stay in a Customs Union.SeanT said:
As I predicted on the day after the referendum, we will end up in the Single Market AND the CU, only they will call both of them something else, to save face. A classic euro-fudge. Which leaves us pretty fucked, but at least not completely destroyed.TheScreamingEagles said:It is because we're headed for a Norway arrangement not Canada.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times
Britons should be cheered, this is probably the best result you can hope to get from the awfulness that is Article 50. This Article has power, of course, only because it appears, for the first time, in the Lisbon Treaty (aka the EU Constitution), a document on which every major party offered us a referendum. A referendum which we never got.
If we'd had a vote we'd have voted NO and we wouldn't be here in this terrible position. A50 is designed to give the EU all the power and the departing nation such a buggering it would never be triggered. But Blair and Brown forced the Treaty through, without our promised plebiscite.
I distinctly remember Peter Hain calling the Lisbon Treaty just a "tidying up exercise", a mere bit of editing. And yet inside it was Article 50. Well done Peter. And well done Nick Palmer, who came on here and chortled as he voted through the Lisbon Treaty in parliament, sans plebiscite.
So here you are, europhiles and Remainers, you're not fucking chortling now, are you? Twats.0 -
what's tradition got to do with it? 40 years ago or whatever, the Tories took us into the EU.HYUFD said:
No it is big business, many if not most small businesses voted Leave and of course farmers and the army and small business etc have a longer tradition of voting Tory than big business or the merchant classes who in the past were often Whig or LiberalRecidivist said:
It’s not big business. It’s business. And if the Conservatives lose the support of business I would not like to bet that they have a future.HYUFD said:
No we're not, the Commons has already voted down a Norway style arrangement after voting to leave the single market by a 200 vote majority, freedom of movement is not an option in the short term.TheScreamingEagles said:It is because we're headed for a Norway arrangement not Canada.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times
So a simple Canada style free trade agreement, as mentioned in the article as the main alternative, remains the most likely outcome even in big business would prefer the single market0 -
If there was no Article 50, negotiations to leave the EU would never end.0
-
So what they are now taking us out of it and most of the Tory vote is now made up of Leave voters from the provinces, not pro EU big business executives living in central Londonrottenborough said:
what's tradition got to do with it? 40 years ago or whatever, the Tories took us into the EU.HYUFD said:
No it is big business, many if not most small businesses voted Leave and of course farmers and the army and small business etc have a longer tradition of voting Tory than big business or the merchant classes who in the past were often Whig or LiberalRecidivist said:
It’s not big business. It’s business. And if the Conservatives lose the support of business I would not like to bet that they have a future.HYUFD said:
No we're not, the Commons has already voted down a Norway style arrangement after voting to leave the single market by a 200 vote majority, freedom of movement is not an option in the short term.TheScreamingEagles said:It is because we're headed for a Norway arrangement not Canada.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times
So a simple Canada style free trade agreement, as mentioned in the article as the main alternative, remains the most likely outcome even in big business would prefer the single market0 -
You can’t stop EU citizens coming here freely unless you make them get visas, which will not happen. So, the issue then is whether they can look for work while they’re here. If they can, then it’s the end of FoM in name only.HYUFD said:
At the bare minimum it would have to be you have a job offer as soon as you arrive at the UK border to mean anything from the Leave voteSouthamObserver said:
Depends where the job offer is made. If you can enter the UK and then look for a job it’s pretty much what we have now, except for automatic access to the NHS.HYUFD said:
A job offer is technically not FOM especially if that requirement applies from day 1 so that does not mean staying fully in the single market even if we have some alignment with it and accept some ECJ jurisdiction.SeanT said:
We will end up with a sort of Freedom of Movement (if you have a job offer) and also accepting ECJ rule over the Single Market (with which we will "align", even as we leave)HYUFD said:
We won't enditical suicide to leave FOM in place and try to be re elected. Even Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the Single Market though he wants to stay in a Customs Union.SeanT said:
As I predicted on the day after the referendum, we will end up in the Single Market AND the CU, only they will call both of them something else, to save face. A classic euro-fudge. Which leaves us pretty fucked, but at least not completely destroyed.TheScreamingEagles said:It is because we're headed for a Norway arrangement not Canada.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times
Britons should be cheered, this is probably the best result you can hope to get from the awfulness that is Article 50. This Article has power, of course, only because it appears, for the first time, in the Lisbon Treaty (aka the EU Constitution), a document on which every major party offered us a referendum. A referendum which we never got.
If we'd had a vote we'd have voted NO and we wouldn't be here in this terrible position. A5ite.
So here you are, europhiles and Remainers, you're not fucking chortling now, are you? Twats.
It's incremental. We gain some sovereignty, lose some power. Or vice verse, if you prefer. I do not believe the Commons would accept Hard Brexit.
In a decadeEEA and trying to do our own trade deals. The Commons has already voted by a 200 vote majority to leave the single market
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True, but will they even with Article 50 in place?rcs1000 said:If there was no Article 50, negotiations to leave the EU would never end.
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Re Corbyn and Brexit, I love how some of Corbyn’s most hardcore supporters have now decided to hate the EU in order to match up with Corbyn’s stance. They are very luck liberal centrist politicians are not in vogue with under 40s right now, otherwise they’d be in for a major shock.0
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Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the single market as it prevents his nationalisation agenda, and tactically opposed as he needs Leave voters in marginal northern and midlands seats to win a majority. I would have thought even you would have realised by now it makes no difference whether May or Corbyn is PM in relation to the EEA, they will both take the UK out of the single marketwilliamglenn said:
How can you read Labour's six tests and not conclude that the front bench's position is not merely tactical? By voting against the single market they hope to dig the government into a hole from which they can't escape.HYUFD said:No you are completely wrong. Over 100 Labour MPs from mainly Remain seats voted to stay in the single market and the Commons still voted by a landslide to leave the single market as not only most Tory seats but most Labour seats too voted Leave and it would be political suicide for any MP in a Leave seat to vote to stay in the single market and leave FOM untouched.
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No you are completely wrong.Philip_Thompson said:
No you are wrong. The Tories had a three line whip to vote against the Single Market. If May signs a Single Market deal then only 100 MPs would have to follow May's new three line whip to back it to wipe out your so-called 200 MP majority.HYUFD said:No you are completely wrong. Over 100 Labour MPs from mainly Remain seats voted to stay in the single market and the Commons still voted by a landslide to leave the single market as not only most Tory seats but most Labour seats too voted Leave and it would be political suicide for any MP in a Leave seat to vote to stay in the single market and leave FOM untouched.
May would be deposed and lose a vote of no confidence in an instant if she left FOM in place and accepted staying in the single market, Tory members and Tory voters oppose staying in the EEA and FOM by a big majority in every poll and there could even be deselections of pro EEA Tory MPs by Leave Associations.
As I said most Labour MPs represent Leave seats and their constitutents are unequivocal they voted Leave to end FOM hence even former Remainers like Caroline Flint voted to leave the EEA and have made clear they will vote down any deal leaving FOM in place.
The LDs, SNP and Plaid and the Greens would vote for the Single Market but most of them represent Remain voting seats.
The majority meant nothing as a bespoke deal was still on the table. The moment May says its not on the table and this is our deal it all changes.
There are not 100 Tory MPs for starters who would vote for the Single Market and leaving FOM untouched or anywhere near it, indeed at most just over 80 Tory seats voted Remain.
130 Labour MPs who voted for the EEA + 80 pro EEA Tory MPs (which is generous as that includes IDS and Redwood who will vote to leave the EEA despite representing Remain seats) + 37 SNP + 4 PC + 12 LD + 1 Green comes to 264 MPs, well short of the 326 needed for a majority in the Commons to stay in the EEA0 -
How you can still believe that when Olly Robbins is making clear May is going to back remaining in the EEA is beyond me.HYUFD said:
Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the single market as it prevents his nationalisation agenda, and tactically opposed as he needs Leave voters in marginal northern and midlands seats to win a majority. I would have thought even you would have realised by now it makes no difference whether May or Corbyn is PM in relation to the EEA, they will both take the UK out of the single marketwilliamglenn said:
How can you read Labour's six tests and not conclude that the front bench's position is not merely tactical? By voting against the single market they hope to dig the government into a hole from which they can't escape.HYUFD said:No you are completely wrong. Over 100 Labour MPs from mainly Remain seats voted to stay in the single market and the Commons still voted by a landslide to leave the single market as not only most Tory seats but most Labour seats too voted Leave and it would be political suicide for any MP in a Leave seat to vote to stay in the single market and leave FOM untouched.
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You have work permits as the government has made clear it intends, at present you can come to the UK without a permit or a job offer for 3 months under FOMSouthamObserver said:
You can’t stop EU citizens coming here freely unless you make them get visas, which will not happen. So, the issue then is whether they can look for work while they’re here. If they can, then it’s the end of FoM in name only.HYUFD said:
At the bare minimum it would have to be you have a job offer as soon as you arrive at the UK border to mean anything from the Leave voteSouthamObserver said:
Depends where the job offer is made. If you can enter the UK and then look for a job it’s pretty much what we have now, except for automatic access to the NHS.HYUFD said:
A job offer is technically not FOM marketSeanT said:
We will end up with a sort of Freedom of Movement (if you have a job offer) and also accepting ECJ rule over the Single Market (with which we will "align", even as we leave)HYUFD said:
We won't enditical suicide to leave FOM in place and try to be re elected. Even Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the Single Market though he wants to stay in a Customs Union.SeanT said:
As I predicted on the day after the referendum, we will end up in the Single Market AND the CU, only they will call both of them something else, to save face. A classic euro-fudge. Which leaves us pretty fucked, but at least not completely destroyed.TheScreamingEagles said:It is because we're headed for a Norway arrangement not Canada.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times
Britons should be cheered, this is probably the best result you can hope to get from the awfulness that is Article 50. This Article has power, of course, only because it appears, for the first time, in the Lisbon Treaty (aka the EU Constitution), a document on which every major party offered us a referendum. A referendum which we never got.
If we'd had a vote we'd have voted NO and we wouldn't be here in this terrible position. A5ite.
So here you are, europhiles and Remainers, you're not fucking chortling now, are you? Twats.
It's incremental. We gain some sovereignty, lose some power. Or vice verse, if you prefer. I do not believe the Commons would accept Hard Brexit.
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Wrong. The majority of 2016 Tory MPs backed Remain and the majority of 2017 new intake Tory MPs also backed Remain: https://www.ft.com/content/408da138-550b-11e7-80b6-9bfa4c1f83d2HYUFD said:
No you are completely wrong.Philip_Thompson said:
No you are wrong. The Tories had a three line whip to vote against the Single Market. If May signs a Single Market deal then only 100 MPs would have to follow May's new three line whip to back it to wipe out your so-called 200 MP majority.HYUFD said:No you are completely wrong. Over 100 Labour MPs from mainly Remain seats voted to stay in the single market and the Commons still voted by a landslide to leave the single market as not only most Tory seats but most Labour seats too voted Leave and it would be political suicide for any MP in a Leave seat to vote to stay in the single market and leave FOM untouched.
May would be deposed and lose a vote of no confidence in an instant if she left FOM in place and accepted staying in the single market, Tory members and Tory voters oppose staying in the EEA and FOM by a big majority in every poll and there could even be deselections of pro EEA Tory MPs by Leave Associations.
As I said most Labour MPs represent Leave seats and their constitutents are unequivocal they voted Leave to end FOM hence even former Remainers like Caroline Flint voted to leave the EEA and have made clear they will vote down any deal leaving FOM in place.
The LDs, SNP and Plaid and the Greens would vote for the Single Market but most of them represent Remain voting seats.
The majority meant nothing as a bespoke deal was still on the table. The moment May says its not on the table and this is our deal it all changes.
There are not 100 Tory MPs for starters who would vote for the Single Market and leaving FOM untouched or anywhere near it, indeed at most just over 80 Tory seats voted Remain.
130 Labour MPs who voted for the EEA + 80 pro EEA Tory MPs (which is generous as that includes IDS and Redwood who will vote to leave the EEA despite representing Remain seats) + 37 SNP + 4 PC + 12 LD + 1 Green comes to 264 MPs, well short of the 326 needed for a majority in the Commons to stay in the EEA
If the choice boils down to WTO terms or EEA with the Tory Leader backing EEA then these Remain-backing majority of the Tory MPs aren't suddenly going to insist on WTO hard Brexit.0 -
Olly Robbins is a pro Remain civil servant, May has never once said she will back staying in the EEA as she knows the Tory Party would topple her within 5 minutes if she tried, Robbins has his own agenda he has no clue on what makes the Tory Party and Tory voters tickPhilip_Thompson said:
How you can still believe that when Olly Robbins is making clear May is going to back remaining in the EEA is beyond me.HYUFD said:
Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the single market as it prevents his nationalisation agenda, and tactically opposed as he needs Leave voters in marginal northern and midlands seats to win a majority. I would have thought even you would have realised by now it makes no difference whether May or Corbyn is PM in relation to the EEA, they will both take the UK out of the single marketwilliamglenn said:
How can you read Labour's six tests and not conclude that the front bench's position is not merely tactical? By voting against the single market they hope to dig the government into a hole from which they can't escape.HYUFD said:No you are completely wrong. Over 100 Labour MPs from mainly Remain seats voted to stay in the single market and the Commons still voted by a landslide to leave the single market as not only most Tory seats but most Labour seats too voted Leave and it would be political suicide for any MP in a Leave seat to vote to stay in the single market and leave FOM untouched.
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Regarding Wimbledon and tennis in general, whenever people start talking about equality in the game I keep expecting them to recommend that women should play best of 5 sets as the men do, instead of best of 3. Strangely they almost never do. (Women did get equal prize money a few years ago).0
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According to the FT 176 of 317 Tory MPs backed Remain and 138 backed Brexit.
Many of those 138 Brexiteers like Daniel Hannan will be perfectly relaxed with the EEA as a form of Brexit.
Almost all of the 176 would prefer EEA as a form of Brexit over WTO.0 -
He's the Civil Servant in May's ear and who is representing May.HYUFD said:
Olly Robbins is a pro Remain civil servant, May has never once said she will back staying in the EEA as she knows the Tory Party would topple her within 5 minutes if she tried, Robbins has his own agenda he has no clue on what makes the Tory Party and Tory voters tickPhilip_Thompson said:
How you can still believe that when Olly Robbins is making clear May is going to back remaining in the EEA is beyond me.HYUFD said:
Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the single market as it prevents his nationalisation agenda, and tactically opposed as he needs Leave voters in marginal northern and midlands seats to win a majority. I would have thought even you would have realised by now it makes no difference whether May or Corbyn is PM in relation to the EEA, they will both take the UK out of the single marketwilliamglenn said:
How can you read Labour's six tests and not conclude that the front bench's position is not merely tactical? By voting against the single market they hope to dig the government into a hole from which they can't escape.HYUFD said:No you are completely wrong. Over 100 Labour MPs from mainly Remain seats voted to stay in the single market and the Commons still voted by a landslide to leave the single market as not only most Tory seats but most Labour seats too voted Leave and it would be political suicide for any MP in a Leave seat to vote to stay in the single market and leave FOM untouched.
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That's why she hasn't said it... That doesn't mean it's not what she's working towards. Robbins takes orders from May.HYUFD said:Olly Robbins is a pro Remain civil servant, May has never once said she will back staying in the EEA as she knows the Tory Party would topple her within 5 minutes if she tried, Robbins has his own agenda he has no clue on what makes the Tory Party and Tory voters tick
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Completely Wrong. Backing Remain BEFORE the EU referendum when most Tory MPs backed the Tory Leader and PM Cameron's pro Remain position and when they expected a comfortable Remain win is completely different from the position now when Leave won and the vast majority of Tory seats and Tory voters voted Leave in large part to end FOM.Philip_Thompson said:
Wrong. The majority of 2016 Tory MPs backed Remain and the majority of 2017 new intake Tory MPs also backed Remain: https://www.ft.com/content/408da138-550b-11e7-80b6-9bfa4c1f83d2HYUFD said:
No you are completely wr stay in the EEAPhilip_Thompson said:
No you are wrong. The Tories had a three line whip to vote against the Single Market. If May signs a Single Market deal then only 100 MPs would have to follow May's new three line whip to back it to wipe out your so-called 200 MP majority.HYUFD said:No you are completely wrong. Over 100 Labour MPs from mainly Remain seats voted to stay in the single market and the Commons still voted by a landslide to leave the single market as not only most Tory seats but most Labour seats too voted Leave and it would be political suicide for any MP in a Leave seat to vote to stay in the single market and leave FOM untouched.
May would be deposed and lose a vote of no confidence in an instant if she left FOM in place and accepted staying in the single market, Tory members and Tory voters oppose staying in the EEA and FOM by a big majority in every poll and there could even be deselections of pro EEA Tory MPs by Leave Associations.
As I said most Labour MPs represent Leave seats and their constitutents are unequivocal they voted Leave to end FOM hence even former Remainers like Caroline Flint voted to leave the EEA and have made clear they will vote down any deal leaving FOM in place.
The LDs, SNP and Plaid and the Greens would vote for the Single Market but most of them represent Remain voting seats.
The majority meant nothing as a bespoke deal was still on the table. The moment May says its not on the table and this is our deal it all changes.
If the choice boils down to WTO terms or EEA with the Tory Leader backing EEA then these Remain-backing majority of the Tory MPs aren't suddenly going to insist on WTO hard Brexit.
Less than a third of Tory seats backed Remain, the remaining over two thirds will not be Turkeys voting for UKIP Christmas and back leaving FOM unchecked and staying in the single market or risk their deselection by their Leave voting Tory Associations which would be the inevitable result
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No he is Whitehall Mandarin and one of many advising May and will not be signing any deal with the EU or not, that will be May and DavisPhilip_Thompson said:
He's the Civil Servant in May's ear and who is representing May.HYUFD said:
Olly Robbins is a pro Remain civil servant, May has never once said she will back staying in the EEA as she knows the Tory Party would topple her within 5 minutes if she tried, Robbins has his own agenda he has no clue on what makes the Tory Party and Tory voters tickPhilip_Thompson said:
How you can still believe that when Olly Robbins is making clear May is going to back remaining in the EEA is beyond me.HYUFD said:
Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the single market as it prevents his nationalisation agenda, and tactically opposed as he needs Leave voters in marginal northern and midlands seats to win a majority. I would have thought even you would have realised by now it makes no difference whether May or Corbyn is PM in relation to the EEA, they will both take the UK out of the single marketwilliamglenn said:
How can you read Labour's six tests and not conclude that the front bench's position is not merely tactical? By voting against the single market they hope to dig the government into a hole from which they can't escape.HYUFD said:No you are completely wrong. Over 100 Labour MPs from mainly Remain seats voted to stay in the single market and the Commons still voted by a landslide to leave the single market as not only most Tory seats but most Labour seats too voted Leave and it would be political suicide for any MP in a Leave seat to vote to stay in the single market and leave FOM untouched.
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OP has missed the point. JRM did not threaten to remove May, he threatened to vote down the withdrawal bill. And he is right. The Remainers like to say that there is no majority for Hard Brexit, but in fact the complete opposite is true.
Labour and the SNP will vote against the withdrawal bill - why would they support it and take any of the blame off the Tories?
If the deal is soft Brexit, there are easily enough Leavers who would vote against to defeat the bill. Then we leave with no deal.
If the deal is CETA, the chances are that the Remainers in the Tory party will have to support it (are they really going to force no deal on something that meets the criteria set out in their own manifesto?).
There is no need to remove May - the ERG simply have to announce that they will vote down any withdrawal deal that crosses their red lines. Then May will have to get Labour support to pass it - good luck with that. JRM is simply reminding May of this fact. Good for him.0 -
Oh, HYUFD, I almost feel sorry for you. You are about to get royally screwed by your own leader and you can't see it coming.HYUFD said:
Olly Robbins is a pro Remain civil servant, May has never once said she will back staying in the EEA as she knows the Tory Party would topple her within 5 minutes if she tried, Robbins has his own agenda he has no clue on what makes the Tory Party and Tory voters tickPhilip_Thompson said:
How you can still believe that when Olly Robbins is making clear May is going to back remaining in the EEA is beyond me.HYUFD said:
Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the single market as it prevents his nationalisation agenda, and tactically opposed as he needs Leave voters in marginal northern and midlands seats to win a majority. I would have thought even you would have realised by now it makes no difference whether May or Corbyn is PM in relation to the EEA, they will both take the UK out of the single marketwilliamglenn said:
How can you read Labour's six tests and not conclude that the front bench's position is not merely tactical? By voting against the single market they hope to dig the government into a hole from which they can't escape.HYUFD said:No you are completely wrong. Over 100 Labour MPs from mainly Remain seats voted to stay in the single market and the Commons still voted by a landslide to leave the single market as not only most Tory seats but most Labour seats too voted Leave and it would be political suicide for any MP in a Leave seat to vote to stay in the single market and leave FOM untouched.
But don't worry, I am sure that May will spin the EEA agreement as somehow compatible with her promises and you will spend the next two years repeating this spin as if you believe it.0 -
UKIP is deceased.HYUFD said:Completely Wrong. Backing Remain BEFORE the EU referendum when most Tory MPs backed the Tory Leader and PM Cameron's pro Remain position and when they expected a comfortable Remain win is completely different from the position now when Leave won and the vast majority of Tory seats and Tory voters voted Leave in large part to end FOM.
Less than a third of Tory seats backed Remain, the remaining over two thirds will not be Turkeys voting for UKIP Christmas and back leaving FOM unchecked and staying in the single market or risk their deselection by their Leave voting Tory Associations which would be the inevitable result
EEA is a form of Leave and it can easily be sold as that if MPs choose to swing that way.0 -
Ha Ha Had Hannan is not even an MEP, the overwhelming majority of Tory members and voters demand an end to FOM, May would be toppled in an instant by a hardline Brexiteer if she even contemplated staying in the EEA.Philip_Thompson said:According to the FT 176 of 317 Tory MPs backed Remain and 138 backed Brexit.
Many of those 138 Brexiteers like Daniel Hannan will be perfectly relaxed with the EEA as a form of Brexit.
Almost all of the 176 would prefer EEA as a form of Brexit over WTO.
Looking at Remain voting MPs BEFORE the referendum is irrelevant, AFTER the referendum 77% of Tory seats voted Leave, an overwhelming majority and hence the vast majority of Tory MPs now represent their voters wishes
https://www.quora.com/How-many-Tory-constituencies-voted-remain-in-the-Brexit-referendum0 -
There is no evidence of that anywhere, not to mention the Commons has already voted by a 200 majority to leave the EEAwilliamglenn said:
That's why she hasn't said it... That doesn't mean it's not what she's working towards. Robbins takes orders from May.HYUFD said:Olly Robbins is a pro Remain civil servant, May has never once said she will back staying in the EEA as she knows the Tory Party would topple her within 5 minutes if she tried, Robbins has his own agenda he has no clue on what makes the Tory Party and Tory voters tick
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Yes they voted Leave and by going to the EEA we will have Left. If the alternative is WTO terms without having done any preparation for WTO terms then all but the most hardline will suck it up. Leaving the EEA then will be tomorrow's battle.HYUFD said:
Ha Ha Had Hannan is not even an MEP, the overwhelming majority of Tory members and voters demand an end to FOM, May would be toppled in an instant by a hardline Brexiteer if she even contemplated staying in the EEA.Philip_Thompson said:According to the FT 176 of 317 Tory MPs backed Remain and 138 backed Brexit.
Many of those 138 Brexiteers like Daniel Hannan will be perfectly relaxed with the EEA as a form of Brexit.
Almost all of the 176 would prefer EEA as a form of Brexit over WTO.
Looking at Remain voting MPs BEFORE the referendum is irrelevant, AFTER the referendum 77% of Tory seats voted Leave, an overwhelming majority and hence the vast majority of Tory MPs now represent their voters wishes
https://www.quora.com/How-many-Tory-constituencies-voted-remain-in-the-Brexit-referendum0 -
On the basis that we will get a bespoke deal.HYUFD said:
There is no evidence of that anywhere, not to mention the Commons has already voted by a 200 majority to leave the EEAwilliamglenn said:
That's why she hasn't said it... That doesn't mean it's not what she's working towards. Robbins takes orders from May.HYUFD said:Olly Robbins is a pro Remain civil servant, May has never once said she will back staying in the EEA as she knows the Tory Party would topple her within 5 minutes if she tried, Robbins has his own agenda he has no clue on what makes the Tory Party and Tory voters tick
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NOPE, EEA means full FOM and guaranteed Brexit betrayal narrative and would revive UKIP quicker than Lazarus likely with Farage at the helm. Tory MPs do not vote for Christmas or to see mass defections of their Leave voting Tory voters and members to UKIP in their mainly Leave Tory seats so they will vote to end FOM and leave the EEA as they already did in the vote last monthPhilip_Thompson said:
UKIP is deceased.HYUFD said:Completely Wrong. Backing Remain BEFORE the EU referendum when most Tory MPs backed the Tory Leader and PM Cameron's pro Remain position and when they expected a comfortable Remain win is completely different from the position now when Leave won and the vast majority of Tory seats and Tory voters voted Leave in large part to end FOM.
Less than a third of Tory seats backed Remain, the remaining over two thirds will not be Turkeys voting for UKIP Christmas and back leaving FOM unchecked and staying in the single market or risk their deselection by their Leave voting Tory Associations which would be the inevitable result
EEA is a form of Leave and it can easily be sold as that if MPs choose to swing that way.
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So the great thing about magical thinking about counter-factuals is that it can't be discredited by contact with reality, unlike magical thinking about our current actual universe.SeanT said:
No, we'd just say WE ARE GOING TO LEAVE, and there would be secret and political negotiations between the UK, EU governments and the Commission and some solution would be found, where no one lost face and little damage was done. It would be in accord with the pragmatic UK tradition.rcs1000 said:If there was no Article 50, negotiations to leave the EU would never end.
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Royally screwed on what basis? The Commons has already voted to leave the EEA by a 200 vote majority with BOTH May and Corbyn refusing to support staying in the EEA and the Withdrawal Bill is now law and it is PARLIAMENT not Olly Robbins which is the supreme law maker in the UKarcher101au said:
Oh, HYUFD, I almost feel sorry for you. You are about to get royally screwed by your own leader and you can't see it coming.HYUFD said:
Olly Robbins is a pro Remain civil servant, May has never once said she will back staying in the EEA as she knows the Tory Party would topple her within 5 minutes if she tried, Robbins has his own agenda he has no clue on what makes the Tory Party and Tory voters tickPhilip_Thompson said:
How you can still believe that when Olly Robbins is making clear May is going to back remaining in the EEA is beyond me.HYUFD said:
Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the single market as it prevents his nationalisation agenda, and tactically opposed as he needs Leave voters in marginal northern and midlands seats to win a majority. I would have thought even you would have realised by now it makes no difference whether May or Corbyn is PM in relation to the EEA, they will both take the UK out of the single marketwilliamglenn said:
How can you read Labour's six tests and not conclude that the front bench's position is not merely tactical? By voting against the single market they hope to dig the government into a hole from which they can't escape.HYUFD said:No you are completely wrong. Over 100 Labour MPs from mainly Remain seats voted to stay in the single market and the Commons still voted by a landslide to leave the single market as not only most Tory seats but most Labour seats too voted Leave and it would be political suicide for any MP in a Leave seat to vote to stay in the single market and leave FOM untouched.
But don't worry, I am sure that May will spin the EEA agreement as somehow compatible with her promises and you will spend the next two years repeating this spin as if you believe it.
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Parliament can't bind its successor.HYUFD said:
Royally screwed on what basis? The Commons has already voted to leave the EEA by a 200 vote majority with BOTH May and Corbyn refusing to support staying in the EEA and the Withdrawal Bill is now law and it is PARLIAMENT not Olly Robbins which is the supreme law maker in the UKarcher101au said:
Oh, HYUFD, I almost feel sorry for you. You are about to get royally screwed by your own leader and you can't see it coming.HYUFD said:
Olly Robbins is a pro Remain civil servant, May has never once said she will back staying in the EEA as she knows the Tory Party would topple her within 5 minutes if she tried, Robbins has his own agenda he has no clue on what makes the Tory Party and Tory voters tickPhilip_Thompson said:
How you can still believe that when Olly Robbins is making clear May is going to back remaining in the EEA is beyond me.HYUFD said:
Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the single market as it prevents his nationalisation agenda, and tactically opposed as he needs Leave voters in marginal northern and midlands seats to win a majority. I would have thought even you would have realised by now it makes no difference whether May or Corbyn is PM in relation to the EEA, they will both take the UK out of the single marketwilliamglenn said:
How can you read Labour's six tests and not conclude that the front bench's position is not merely tactical? By voting against the single market they hope to dig the government into a hole from which they can't escape.HYUFD said:No you are completely wrong. Over 100 Labour MPs from mainly Remain seats voted to stay in the single market and the Commons still voted by a landslide to leave the single market as not only most Tory seats but most Labour seats too voted Leave and it would be political suicide for any MP in a Leave seat to vote to stay in the single market and leave FOM untouched.
But don't worry, I am sure that May will spin the EEA agreement as somehow compatible with her promises and you will spend the next two years repeating this spin as if you believe it.
Parliament can't bind itself.
Parliament voted to Leave the Single Market to a bespoke deal, not WTO terms.
If the government backs staying in the Single Market Parliament can vote again.0 -
Sigh. The House of Commons will never get to vote on what they want - they never have to vote for WTO. They can accept or reject the withdrawal bill. If they reject it, the Government cannot enact the deal with the EU. So we leave on WTO terms.Philip_Thompson said:
No there's absolutely no guarantee at all that the Commons would vote for WTO terms. Quite the opposite.HYUFD said:
No it isn't, for starters Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the Single Market and many Labour MPs in heavily Leave seats will never commit political suicide by voting for the EEA and FOM.Philip_Thompson said:
You say that like it means anything whatsoever.
If the EU refuses to offer anything other than Norway its entirely possible or even probable that the Commons will vote differently next time.
Barnier has said we can have a basic Canada deal but in a choice between WTO terms and full FOM and staying in the EEA then WTO terms will win in the short term if the Leave vote is to mean anything at all
Let's not forget that last time both the Tories and Labour put a three-line-whip forbidding their MPs from voting for the Single Market. For the Tories to vote against and for Labour to abstain. This because the UK was seeking a bespoke deal and both parties are currently officially at least backing that.
If the UK stops seeking a bespoke deal then that would change everything. If May agrees to sign us up to the Single Market then rather than the Tories having a three line whip to vote against the Single Market they'd have a three line whip to vote for it. There'd be a substantial number of rebels but a large number would go with the change in whip to go for the Single Market over WTO.
Virtually all Labour MPs too would prefer Single Market over WTO if that is the stark choice.
All other MPs barring perhaps DUP would too.
The Commons arithmetic changes dramatically once a bespoke deal is off the table and the whip is applied differently.
Even if the Remainers manage to stick a SM/CU amendment on something, the Government can simply ignore it. The HoC cannot direct the Executive on how to negotiate. If they don't like what the Executive are doing, they simply have the option to remove the Executive and put another in place - which is not possible as no other party has the numbers.
The big issue, as I said below, is that May does not have the numbers to pass Soft Brexit unless Labour supports her - and why should they?
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rottenborough said:
what's tradition got to do with it? 40 years ago or whatever, the Tories took us into the EU.HYUFD said:
No it is big business, many if not most small businesses voted Leave and of course farmers and the army and small business etc have a longer tradition of voting Tory than big business or the merchant classes who in the past were often Whig or LiberalRecidivist said:
It’s not big business. It’s business. And if the Conservatives lose the support of business I would not like to bet that they have a future.HYUFD said:
No we're not, the Commons has already voted down a Norway style arrangement after voting to leave the single market by a 200 vote majority, freedom of movement is not an option in the short term.TheScreamingEagles said:It is because we're headed for a Norway arrangement not Canada.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times
So a simple Canada style free trade agreement, as mentioned in the article as the main alternative, remains the most likely outcome even in big business would prefer the single market
40 years ago or whatever? On come one, in 1978 the Tories (the opposition) took us into the EU ( which didn’t exist ). Really?
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No we won't, that will not be Leave to most Leavers given we will still have 75% of the EU laws we had before and ZERO new immigration controls thus a complete betrayal of the pivotal reason Leave got over 50% of the vote ie to end FOM and reduce immigration.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes they voted Leave and by going to the EEA we will have Left. If the alternative is WTO terms without having done any preparation for WTO terms then all but the most hardline will suck it up. Leaving the EEA then will be tomorrow's battle.HYUFD said:
Ha Ha Had Hannan is not even an MEP, the overwhelming majority of Tory members and voters demand an end to FOM, May would be toppled in an instant by a hardline Brexiteer if she even contemplated staying in the EEA.Philip_Thompson said:According to the FT 176 of 317 Tory MPs backed Remain and 138 backed Brexit.
Many of those 138 Brexiteers like Daniel Hannan will be perfectly relaxed with the EEA as a form of Brexit.
Almost all of the 176 would prefer EEA as a form of Brexit over WTO.
Looking at Remain voting MPs BEFORE the referendum is irrelevant, AFTER the referendum 77% of Tory seats voted Leave, an overwhelming majority and hence the vast majority of Tory MPs now represent their voters wishes
https://www.quora.com/How-many-Tory-constituencies-voted-remain-in-the-Brexit-referendum
In a decade or so once we have reduced immigration EEA may be an option, there would be hell to pay if it was considered now which is why both May and Corbyn and the Commons have all refused to endorse staying in the EEA.
It is also rubbish to suggest WTO terms is the only alternative to EEA as even Barnier has said a basic Canada style FTA is available even without EEA
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Corbyn and May both do not back the EEA correctarcher101au said:
Sigh. The House of Commons will never get to vote on what they want - they never have to vote for WTO. They can accept or reject the withdrawal bill. If they reject it, the Government cannot enact the deal with the EU. So we leave on WTO terms.Philip_Thompson said:
No there's absolutely no guarantee at all that the Commons would vote for WTO terms. Quite the opposite.HYUFD said:
No it isn't, for starters Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the Single Market and many Labour MPs in heavily Leave seats will never commit political suicide by voting for the EEA and FOM.Philip_Thompson said:
You say that like it means anything whatsoever.
If the EU refuses to offer anything other than Norway its entirely possible or even probable that the Commons will vote differently next time.
Barnier has said we can have a basic Canada deal but in a choice between WTO terms and full FOM and staying in the EEA then WTO terms will win in the short term if the Leave vote is to mean anything at all
Let's not forget that last time both the Tories and Labour put a three-line-whip forbidding their MPs from voting for the Single Market. For the Tories to vote against and for Labour to abstain. This because the UK was seeking a bespoke deal and both parties are currently officially at least backing that.
If the UK stops seeking a bespoke deal then that would change everything. If May agrees to sign us up to the Single Market then rather than the Tories having a three line whip to vote against the Single Market they'd have a three line whip to vote for it. There'd be a substantial number of rebels but a large number would go with the change in whip to go for the Single Market over WTO.
Virtually all Labour MPs too would prefer Single Market over WTO if that is the stark choice.
All other MPs barring perhaps DUP would too.
The Commons arithmetic changes dramatically once a bespoke deal is off the table and the whip is applied differently.
Even if the Remainers manage to stick a SM/CU amendment on something, the Government can simply ignore it. The HoC cannot direct the Executive on how to negotiate. If they don't like what the Executive are doing, they simply have the option to remove the Executive and put another in place - which is not possible as no other party has the numbers.
The big issue, as I said below, is that May does not have the numbers to pass Soft Brexit unless Labour supports her - and why should they?0 -
If May backs staying in the Single Market and that is her deal then yes the choice becomes that or WTO. The Commons can vote against WTO by backing her deal, no need for an amendment or anything else.archer101au said:
Sigh. The House of Commons will never get to vote on what they want - they never have to vote for WTO. They can accept or reject the withdrawal bill. If they reject it, the Government cannot enact the deal with the EU. So we leave on WTO terms.Philip_Thompson said:
No there's absolutely no guarantee at all that the Commons would vote for WTO terms. Quite the opposite.HYUFD said:
No it isn't, for starters Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the Single Market and many Labour MPs in heavily Leave seats will never commit political suicide by voting for the EEA and FOM.Philip_Thompson said:
You say that like it means anything whatsoever.
If the EU refuses to offer anything other than Norway its entirely possible or even probable that the Commons will vote differently next time.
Barnier has said we can have a basic Canada deal but in a choice between WTO terms and full FOM and staying in the EEA then WTO terms will win in the short term if the Leave vote is to mean anything at all
Let's not forget that last time both the Tories and Labour put a three-line-whip forbidding their MPs from voting for the Single Market. For the Tories to vote against and for Labour to abstain. This because the UK was seeking a bespoke deal and both parties are currently officially at least backing that.
If the UK stops seeking a bespoke deal then that would change everything. If May agrees to sign us up to the Single Market then rather than the Tories having a three line whip to vote against the Single Market they'd have a three line whip to vote for it. There'd be a substantial number of rebels but a large number would go with the change in whip to go for the Single Market over WTO.
Virtually all Labour MPs too would prefer Single Market over WTO if that is the stark choice.
All other MPs barring perhaps DUP would too.
The Commons arithmetic changes dramatically once a bespoke deal is off the table and the whip is applied differently.
Even if the Remainers manage to stick a SM/CU amendment on something, the Government can simply ignore it. The HoC cannot direct the Executive on how to negotiate. If they don't like what the Executive are doing, they simply have the option to remove the Executive and put another in place - which is not possible as no other party has the numbers.
The big issue, as I said below, is that May does not have the numbers to pass Soft Brexit unless Labour supports her - and why should they?
Enough Labour MPs would back a soft Brexit if it became an option because that is what they want.0 -
May's changed her position on lots of things in the last 2 years. I don't trust her on this, I don't see why we should.HYUFD said:
Corbyn and May both do not back the EEA correctarcher101au said:
Sigh. The House of Commons will never get to vote on what they want - they never have to vote for WTO. They can accept or reject the withdrawal bill. If they reject it, the Government cannot enact the deal with the EU. So we leave on WTO terms.Philip_Thompson said:
No there's absolutely no guarantee at all that the Commons would vote for WTO terms. Quite the opposite.HYUFD said:
No it isn't, for starters Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the Single Market and many Labour MPs in heavily Leave seats will never commit political suicide by voting for the EEA and FOM.Philip_Thompson said:
You say that like it means anything whatsoever.
If the EU refuses to offer anything other than Norway its entirely possible or even probable that the Commons will vote differently next time.
Barnier has said we can have a basic Canada deal but in a choice between WTO terms and full FOM and staying in the EEA then WTO terms will win in the short term if the Leave vote is to mean anything at all
Let's not forget that last time both the Tories and Labour put a three-line-whip forbidding their MPs from voting for the Single Market. For the Tories to vote against and for Labour to abstain. This because the UK was seeking a bespoke deal and both parties are currently officially at least backing that.
If the UK stops seeking a bespoke deal then that would change everything. If May agrees to sign us up to the Single Market then rather than the Tories having a three line whip to vote against the Single Market they'd have a three line whip to vote for it. There'd be a substantial number of rebels but a large number would go with the change in whip to go for the Single Market over WTO.
Virtually all Labour MPs too would prefer Single Market over WTO if that is the stark choice.
All other MPs barring perhaps DUP would too.
The Commons arithmetic changes dramatically once a bespoke deal is off the table and the whip is applied differently.
Even if the Remainers manage to stick a SM/CU amendment on something, the Government can simply ignore it. The HoC cannot direct the Executive on how to negotiate. If they don't like what the Executive are doing, they simply have the option to remove the Executive and put another in place - which is not possible as no other party has the numbers.
The big issue, as I said below, is that May does not have the numbers to pass Soft Brexit unless Labour supports her - and why should they?0 -
No Parliament voted to leave the single market, not to leave the single market but only if we get a perfect bespoke Canada+ deal with cream and cherries on top. Labour MPs like Flint will never vote to leave FOM in place as they know it would be political suicide in their heavy Leave voting seatsPhilip_Thompson said:
Parliament can't bind its successor.HYUFD said:
Royally screwed on what basis? The Commons has already voted to leave the EEA by a 200 vote majority with BOTH May and Corbyn refusing to support staying in the EEA and the Withdrawal Bill is now law and it is PARLIAMENT not Olly Robbins which is the supreme law maker in the UKarcher101au said:
Oh, HYUFD, I almost feel sorry for you. You are about to get royally screwed by your own leader and you can't see it coming.HYUFD said:
Olly Robbins is a pro Remain civil servant, May has never once said she will back staying in the EEA as she knows the Tory Party would topple her within 5 minutes if she tried, Robbins has his own agenda he has no clue on what makes the Tory Party and Tory voters tickPhilip_Thompson said:
How you can still believe that when Olly Robbins is making clear May is going to back remaining in the EEA is beyond me.HYUFD said:
Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the single market as it prevents his nationalisation agenda, and tactically opposed as he needs Leave voters in marginal northern and midlands seats to win a majority. I would have thought even you would have realised by now it makes no difference whether May or Corbyn is PM in relation to the EEA, they will both take the UK out of the single marketwilliamglenn said:
How can you read Labour's six tests and not conclude that the front bench's position is not merely tactical? By voting against the single market they hope to dig the government into a hole from which they can't escape.HYUFD said:No you are completely wrong. Over 100 Labour MPs from mainly Remain seats voted to stay in the single market and the Commons still voted by a landslide to leave the single market as not only most Tory seats but most Labour seats too voted Leave and it would be political suicide for any MP in a Leave seat to vote to stay in the single market and leave FOM untouched.
But don't worry, I am sure that May will spin the EEA agreement as somehow compatible with her promises and you will spend the next two years repeating this spin as if you believe it.
Parliament can't bind itself.
Parliament voted to Leave the Single Market to a bespoke deal, not WTO terms.
If the government backs staying in the Single Market Parliament can vote again.
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Barnier's also said that if we go for that we'd basically have to let the EEA annex Northern Ireland so no that's not viable.HYUFD said:
No we won't, that will not be Leave to most Leavers given we will still have 75% of the EU laws we had before and ZERO new immigration controls thus a complete betrayal of the pivotal reason Leave got over 50% of the vote ie to end FOM and reduce immigration.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes they voted Leave and by going to the EEA we will have Left. If the alternative is WTO terms without having done any preparation for WTO terms then all but the most hardline will suck it up. Leaving the EEA then will be tomorrow's battle.HYUFD said:
Ha Ha Had Hannan is not even an MEP, the overwhelming majority of Tory members and voters demand an end to FOM, May would be toppled in an instant by a hardline Brexiteer if she even contemplated staying in the EEA.Philip_Thompson said:According to the FT 176 of 317 Tory MPs backed Remain and 138 backed Brexit.
Many of those 138 Brexiteers like Daniel Hannan will be perfectly relaxed with the EEA as a form of Brexit.
Almost all of the 176 would prefer EEA as a form of Brexit over WTO.
Looking at Remain voting MPs BEFORE the referendum is irrelevant, AFTER the referendum 77% of Tory seats voted Leave, an overwhelming majority and hence the vast majority of Tory MPs now represent their voters wishes
https://www.quora.com/How-many-Tory-constituencies-voted-remain-in-the-Brexit-referendum
In a decade or so once we have reduced immigration EEA may be an option, there would be hell to pay if it was considered now which is why both May and Corbyn and the Commons have all refused to endorse staying in the EEA.
It is also rubbish to suggest WTO terms is the only alternative to EEA as even Barnier has said a basic Canada style FTA is available even without EEA0 -
UKIP are extinct, their fire has gone out of the universe. You, my friend, are all that's left of their religion.HYUFD said:
NOPE, EEA means full FOM and guaranteed Brexit betrayal narrative and would revive UKIP quicker than Lazarus likely with Farage at the helm. Tory MPs do not vote for Christmas or to see mass defections of their Leave voting Tory voters and members to UKIP in their mainly Leave Tory seats so they will vote to end FOM and leave the EEA as they already did in the vote last monthPhilip_Thompson said:
UKIP is deceased.HYUFD said:Completely Wrong. Backing Remain BEFORE the EU referendum when most Tory MPs backed the Tory Leader and PM Cameron's pro Remain position and when they expected a comfortable Remain win is completely different from the position now when Leave won and the vast majority of Tory seats and Tory voters voted Leave in large part to end FOM.
Less than a third of Tory seats backed Remain, the remaining over two thirds will not be Turkeys voting for UKIP Christmas and back leaving FOM unchecked and staying in the single market or risk their deselection by their Leave voting Tory Associations which would be the inevitable result
EEA is a form of Leave and it can easily be sold as that if MPs choose to swing that way.0 -
As she knows backing leaving the EEA is the only way she stays party leaderPhilip_Thompson said:
May's changed her position on lots of things in the last 2 years. I don't trust her on this, I don't see why we should.HYUFD said:
Corbyn and May both do not back the EEA correctarcher101au said:
Sigh. The House of Commons will never get to vote on what they want - they never have to vote for WTO. They can accept or reject the withdrawal bill. If they reject it, the Government cannot enact the deal with the EU. So we leave on WTO terms.Philip_Thompson said:
No there's absolut.HYUFD said:
No it isn't, for starters Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the Single Market and many Labour MPs in heavily Leave seats will never commit political suicide by voting for the EEA and FOM.Philip_Thompson said:
You say that like it means anything whatsoever.
If the EU refuses to offer anything other than Norway its entirely possible or even probable that the Commons will vote differently next time.
Barnier has said we can have a basic Canada deal but in a choice between WTO terms and full FOM and staying in the EEA then WTO terms will win in the short term if the Leave vote is to mean anything at all
Virtually all Labour MPs too would prefer Single Market over WTO if that is the stark choice.
All other MPs barring perhaps DUP would too.
The Commons arithmetic changes dramatically once a bespoke deal is off the table and the whip is applied differently.
Even if the Remainers manage to stick a SM/CU amendment on something, the Government can simply ignore it. The HoC cannot direct the Executive on how to negotiate. If they don't like what the Executive are doing, they simply have the option to remove the Executive and put another in place - which is not possible as no other party has the numbers.
The big issue, as I said below, is that May does not have the numbers to pass Soft Brexit unless Labour supports her - and why should they?0 -
45 years ago yes.trawl said:rottenborough said:
what's tradition got to do with it? 40 years ago or whatever, the Tories took us into the EU.HYUFD said:
No it is big business, many if not most small businesses voted Leave and of course farmers and the army and small business etc have a longer tradition of voting Tory than big business or the merchant classes who in the past were often Whig or LiberalRecidivist said:
It’s not big business. It’s business. And if the Conservatives lose the support of business I would not like to bet that they have a future.HYUFD said:
No we're not, the Commons has already voted down a Norway style arrangement after voting to leave the single market by a 200 vote majority, freedom of movement is not an option in the short term.TheScreamingEagles said:It is because we're headed for a Norway arrangement not Canada.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times
So a simple Canada style free trade agreement, as mentioned in the article as the main alternative, remains the most likely outcome even in big business would prefer the single market
40 years ago or whatever? On come one, in 1978 the Tories (the opposition) took us into the EU ( which didn’t exist ). Really?0
