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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Unless Moggsy has the backing of 158 CON MPs for his oust TMay
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Unless Moggsy has the backing of 158 CON MPs for his oust TMay move this threat is all piss and wind
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Like a number of things, they ought to have thought about it in more depth.
Too late now if TM shafts them.
Gambles all round!
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1013535899882283008
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times
So a simple Canada style free trade agreement, as mentioned in the article as the main alternative, remains the most likely outcome even in big business would prefer the single market
I don't agree with Oliver Robbins approach, but it's a bit harsh to call him that.
If the EU refuses to offer anything other than Norway its entirely possible or even probable that the Commons will vote differently next time.
But if I'm wrong then traditional way to handle the situation would be to send in a delegation asking for a commitment to stand down after Brexit. She could of course give such a commitment then try to Blair down, but at that point a year will have elapsed and presumably they'll still have the numbers.
He hasn't the numbers and he knows it.
Which experience tells me overrides all other considerations.
Barnier has said we can have a basic Canada deal but in a choice between WTO terms and full FOM and staying in the EEA then WTO terms will win in the short term if the Leave vote is to mean anything at all
Epic negotiation by David Davis who seems to have taken 2 years to achieve something he could have come home with on day 1.
And long term how sustainable will it be to have to implement rules we had no involvement in writing.
In a decade Chuka Umunna might be able to become PM on a return to the EEA with full FOM and Customs Union ticket, fair enough but for now we have to respect the Leave vote in full and that means replacing FOM with new controls, leaving the EEA and trying to do our own trade deals. The Commons has already voted by a 200 vote majority to leave the single market
Poor timing everyone.
Let's not forget that last time both the Tories and Labour put a three-line-whip forbidding their MPs from voting for the Single Market. For the Tories to vote against and for Labour to abstain. This because the UK was seeking a bespoke deal and both parties are currently officially at least backing that.
If the UK stops seeking a bespoke deal then that would change everything. If May agrees to sign us up to the Single Market then rather than the Tories having a three line whip to vote against the Single Market they'd have a three line whip to vote for it. There'd be a substantial number of rebels but a large number would go with the change in whip to go for the Single Market over WTO.
Virtually all Labour MPs too would prefer Single Market over WTO if that is the stark choice.
All other MPs barring perhaps DUP would too.
The Commons arithmetic changes dramatically once a bespoke deal is off the table and the whip is applied differently.
(To be clear, I'm not recommending this course of action. Merely exploring how the ultras might see it).
But 30th March 2019 Theresa really will be a dead woman walking (and this "deal" her and Robbins have cookied up with the EU virtually guarantees a Leaver will follow her into Downing St.)
From a few months ago now, certainly it reinforced my revised opinion about Macron.
Voting against the government triggers either a Corbyn government or a general election that likely leads to a Corbyn government.
There won’t be time to replace Mrs May before the election so she takes the whip away from them and they can’t stand as Tory candidates in the general election.
May would be deposed and lose a vote of no confidence in an instant if she left FOM in place and accepted staying in the single market, Tory members and Tory voters oppose staying in the EEA and FOM by a big majority in every poll and there could even be deselections of pro EEA Tory MPs by Leave Associations.
As I said most Labour MPs represent Leave seats and their constitutents are unequivocal they voted Leave to end FOM hence even former Remainers like Caroline Flint voted to leave the EEA and have made clear they will vote down any deal leaving FOM in place.
The LDs, SNP and Plaid and the Greens would vote for the Single Market but most of them represent Remain voting seats.
Any job loss is unfortunate but how many will feel sorry for these people ?
The majority meant nothing as a bespoke deal was still on the table. The moment May says its not on the table and this is our deal it all changes.
She owes everything she has and everything she is to Brexit and to Tory Brexiteers. When it turns out she's just been stringing everyone along she'll be in big, big trouble.
They're stuck with her until we leave on 29th March but 30th March 2019 I'm thinking the Tory Party will devour her...
Of course, as you imply the more likely outcome would be chaos, an election, and God knows what after that.
There are not 100 Tory MPs for starters who would vote for the Single Market and leaving FOM untouched or anywhere near it, indeed at most just over 80 Tory seats voted Remain.
130 Labour MPs who voted for the EEA + 80 pro EEA Tory MPs (which is generous as that includes IDS and Redwood who will vote to leave the EEA despite representing Remain seats) + 37 SNP + 4 PC + 12 LD + 1 Green comes to 264 MPs, well short of the 326 needed for a majority in the Commons to stay in the EEA
If the choice boils down to WTO terms or EEA with the Tory Leader backing EEA then these Remain-backing majority of the Tory MPs aren't suddenly going to insist on WTO hard Brexit.
Many of those 138 Brexiteers like Daniel Hannan will be perfectly relaxed with the EEA as a form of Brexit.
Almost all of the 176 would prefer EEA as a form of Brexit over WTO.
Less than a third of Tory seats backed Remain, the remaining over two thirds will not be Turkeys voting for UKIP Christmas and back leaving FOM unchecked and staying in the single market or risk their deselection by their Leave voting Tory Associations which would be the inevitable result
Labour and the SNP will vote against the withdrawal bill - why would they support it and take any of the blame off the Tories?
If the deal is soft Brexit, there are easily enough Leavers who would vote against to defeat the bill. Then we leave with no deal.
If the deal is CETA, the chances are that the Remainers in the Tory party will have to support it (are they really going to force no deal on something that meets the criteria set out in their own manifesto?).
There is no need to remove May - the ERG simply have to announce that they will vote down any withdrawal deal that crosses their red lines. Then May will have to get Labour support to pass it - good luck with that. JRM is simply reminding May of this fact. Good for him.
But don't worry, I am sure that May will spin the EEA agreement as somehow compatible with her promises and you will spend the next two years repeating this spin as if you believe it.
EEA is a form of Leave and it can easily be sold as that if MPs choose to swing that way.
Looking at Remain voting MPs BEFORE the referendum is irrelevant, AFTER the referendum 77% of Tory seats voted Leave, an overwhelming majority and hence the vast majority of Tory MPs now represent their voters wishes
https://www.quora.com/How-many-Tory-constituencies-voted-remain-in-the-Brexit-referendum
Parliament can't bind itself.
Parliament voted to Leave the Single Market to a bespoke deal, not WTO terms.
If the government backs staying in the Single Market Parliament can vote again.
Even if the Remainers manage to stick a SM/CU amendment on something, the Government can simply ignore it. The HoC cannot direct the Executive on how to negotiate. If they don't like what the Executive are doing, they simply have the option to remove the Executive and put another in place - which is not possible as no other party has the numbers.
The big issue, as I said below, is that May does not have the numbers to pass Soft Brexit unless Labour supports her - and why should they?
40 years ago or whatever? On come one, in 1978 the Tories (the opposition) took us into the EU ( which didn’t exist ). Really?
In a decade or so once we have reduced immigration EEA may be an option, there would be hell to pay if it was considered now which is why both May and Corbyn and the Commons have all refused to endorse staying in the EEA.
It is also rubbish to suggest WTO terms is the only alternative to EEA as even Barnier has said a basic Canada style FTA is available even without EEA
Enough Labour MPs would back a soft Brexit if it became an option because that is what they want.