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What happened to change sentiment on Gove?

OblitusSumMe said:

What happened to change sentiment on Gove?

A good question. I assume that JRM has not been getting in the headlines as much, his star is already fading, or the cynical think that while they like him his weaknesses are just too great for the MPs to put him in the final two should the opportunity arise, so they are simply going back on a longer standing favourite of the members.

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I called this on June 24th 2016 if not before.

SeanT wants another referendum, which includes the option of Remaining.

https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/1012770292006096909

Bah - I flip flopped to us needing another referendum before he did.

Be comforted that your flip flop will almost certainly last longer than his.

OblitusSumMe said:

What happened to change sentiment on Gove?

1) He's looking like one of the few competent cabinet ministers

2) JRM and Boris are proving to be overrated/wholly unsuited to being PM so Gove is the last Leaver left standing

3) Gove was getting the support of the Osbornite faction. Gove, apart from Brexit, is pure Cameroon. We need someone articulating One Nation Toryism, it is the only Type of Toryism to have won a majority this century. The party still has a majority One Nation MP make up.

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I called this on June 24th 2016 if not before.

SeanT wants another referendum, which includes the option of Remaining.

https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/1012770292006096909

Bah - I flip flopped to us needing another referendum before he did.

Don’t worry, Sean’s opinions don’t yet warrant constitutional status.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

@SeanT is wrong, he had the full benefit of our most esteemed and excellent thoughts on here before the referendum, including very clear direction from Richard Nabavi and Alastair Meeks.
We are not rerunning the referendum just because he's flounced - he should have thought harder before he voted to leave.

I'm sure it is nothing to do with this.

London property prices fall as much as 15% as Brexit effect deepens

Average price in Wandsworth dips more than £100,000 with falls of up to 15% in capital in 12 months

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/mar/12/london-property-prices-plunge-as-brexit-effect-deepens

Speaking personally my reasoning for agreeing that we need a second referendum (though whether it should be on accepting the deal, to get public buy in as I do think it would pass, or to include a Remain option, I am less sure on) is because of the continued incompetence of May and co. It was a damn hard job before losing the majority, and even harder afterwards, but given the Cabinet is still bickering about what to try and go for and there is so little time available, clearly the government is not capable of determining what to even ask for of the EU, and when it does try something it is something explicitly rejected by the EU half the time.

Therefore while I don't see it entirely resolving the nation's, and it would be very complicated to arrange, nor do I see a political path to it happening right now, I think some kind of at least broad philosophical direction of soft/hard/remain being put back to the people is looking less horrible as time goes on.

What kind of deal is a deal which sees the people agreed it 'split' on what it means a day later?

Migrant crisis: EU leaders split over new migrant deal

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44660806

Not a good look when the deals in question are as clear as a compromise between May and Dominic Grieve.

But if it saves Merkel's job I guess it achieved its aim.

JonnyJimmy said:

Fpt, and ot because you should all try this..

If you mix natural yoghurt with some salt in a muslin cloth on a sieve on a bowl then leave it in the fridge overnight you get Labneh, Lebanese cream cheese. The salt releases the whey. If you stir in grated garlic and herbes de Provence with the salt you get something like Boursin but so much better. I'm eating some now and highly recommend

Where's the easiest place to buy muslin cloth ?

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

@SeanT is wrong, he had the full benefit of our most esteemed and excellent thoughts on here before the referendum, including very clear direction from Richard Nabavi and Alastair Meeks.
We are not rerunning the referendum just because he's flounced - he should have thought harder before he voted to leave.

I'm sure it is nothing to do with this.

London property prices fall as much as 15% as Brexit effect deepens

Average price in Wandsworth dips more than £100,000 with falls of up to 15% in capital in 12 months

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/mar/12/london-property-prices-plunge-as-brexit-effect-deepens

Speaking personally my reasoning for agreeing that we need a second referendum (though whether it should be on accepting the deal, to get public buy in as I do think it would pass, or to include a Remain option, I am less sure on) is because of the continued incompetence of May and co. It was a damn hard job before losing the majority, and even harder afterwards, but given the Cabinet is still bickering about what to try and go for and there is so little time available, clearly the government is not capable of determining what to even ask for of the EU, and when it does try something it is something explicitly rejected by the EU half the time.

Therefore while I don't see it entirely resolving the nation's, and it would be very complicated to arrange, nor do I see a political path to it happening right now, I think some kind of at least broad philosophical direction of soft/hard/remain being put back to the people is looking less horrible as time goes on.

We voted to Leave and we must Leave.

People can't complain now if they realise now that Leaving means we get a worse deal than we currently have, they were warned many times beforehand.

You won, suck it up, to paraphrase Sean.

So if we have a bad Brexit, we can overturn it at the 2022 or 2027 general election, I'm fairly certain at least one if not both major parties will campaign on rejoining, wanting to continue economic ruin won't be an election winner I expect.

I can see the posters now:

"We spend X on the NHS lets send it to the EU instead"

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

@SeanT is wrong, he had the full benefit of our most esteemed and excellent thoughts on here before the referendum, including very clear direction from Richard Nabavi and Alastair Meeks.
We are not rerunning the referendum just because he's flounced - he should have thought harder before he voted to leave.

I'm sure it is nothing to do with this.

London property prices fall as much as 15% as Brexit effect deepens

Average price in Wandsworth dips more than £100,000 with falls of up to 15% in capital in 12 months

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/mar/12/london-property-prices-plunge-as-brexit-effect-deepens

Speaking personally my reasoning for agreeing that we need a second referendum (though whether it should be on accepting the deal, to get public buy in as I do think it would pass, or to include a Remain option, I am less sure on) is because of the continued incompetence of May and co. It was a damn hard job before losing the majority, and even harder afterwards, but given the Cabinet is still bickering about what to try and go for and there is so little time available, clearly the government is not capable of determining what to even ask for of the EU, and when it does try something it is something explicitly rejected by the EU half the time.

Therefore while I don't see it entirely resolving the nation's, and it would be very complicated to arrange, nor do I see a political path to it happening right now, I think some kind of at least broad philosophical direction of soft/hard/remain being put back to the people is looking less horrible as time goes on.

We voted to Leave and we must Leave.

People can't complain now if they realise now that Leaving means we get a worse deal than we currently have, they were warned many times beforehand.

You won, suck it up, to paraphrase Sean.

So if we have a bad Brexit, we can overturn it at the 2022 or 2027 general election, I'm fairly certain at least one if not both major parties will campaign on rejoining, wanting to continue economic ruin won't be an election winner I expect.

I can see the posters now:

"We spend X on the NHS lets send it to the EU instead"

By the time we get back in we will be poor enough to get a subsidy from Romania

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

@o leave.

I'm sure it is nothing to do with this.

London property prices fall as much as 15% as Brexit effect deepens

Average price in Wandsworth dips more than £100,000 with falls of up to 15% in capital in 12 months

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/mar/12/london-property-prices-plunge-as-brexit-effect-deepens

Speaking personally my reasoning for agreeing that we need a second referendum (though whether it should be on accepting the deal, to get public buy in as I do think it would pass, or to include a Remain option, I am less sure on) is because of the continued incompetence of May and co. It was a damn hard job before losing the majority, and even harder afterwards, but given the Cabinet is still bickering about what to try and go for and there is so little time available, clearly the government is not capable of determining what to even ask for of the EU, and when it does try something it is something explicitly rejected by the EU half the time.

Therefore while I don't see it entirely resolving the nation's, and it would be very complicated to arrange, nor do I see a political path to it happening right now, I think some kind of at least broad philosophical direction of soft/hard/remain being put back to the people is looking less horrible as time goes on.

We voted to Leave and we must Leave.

People can't complain now if they realise now that Leaving means we get a worse deal than we currently have, they were warned many times beforehand.

You won, suck it up, to paraphrase Sean.

Perhaps in your haste to be a smartarse you failed to notice I have not yet decided if I felt it should be a referendum on the deal or a referendum which included a remain option, nor did I say I would vote to remain or hope that the people would either - it was about how to obtain a resolution(or at least as much of one as is possible), since the government is clearly incapable to figuring out what it wants so that we can have a resolution of some kind.

So 'suck it up, you won' is a load of bollocks, since it wasn't a complaint about what kind of deal we are getting and it being bad and isn't that terrible (it may well be, but that wasn't what this point was about), it was about trying to arrive at a conclusion which has some more public satisfaction, be it soft/hard or remain. Or at least trying to arrive at said conclusion more effectively.

But well done sidestepping that for the point you wanted it to be rather than the point it was. The kind of thinking which lost it for remain, it's good to see no sides have learned any lessons in the past few years, since it's much more satisfying to pretend.

Amazon sells muslin bags for cooking

kle4 said:

Perhaps in your haste to be a smartarse you failed to notice I have not yet decided if I felt it should be a referendum on the deal or a referendum which included a remain option, nor did I say I would vote to remain or hope that the people would either - it was about how to obtain a resolution(or at least as much of one as is possible), since the government is clearly incapable to figuring out what it wants so that we can have a resolution of some kind.

So 'suck it up, you won' is a load of bollocks, since it wasn't a complaint about what kind of deal we are getting and it being bad and isn't that terrible (it may well be, but that wasn't what this point was about), it was about trying to arrive at a conclusion which has some more public satisfaction, be it soft/hard or remain. Or at least trying to arrive at said conclusion more effectively.

But well done sidestepping that for the point you wanted it to be rather than the point it was. The kind of thinking which lost it for remain, it's good to see no sides have learned any lessons in the past few years, since it's much more satisfying to pretend.

I was not intending to be a smartarse.

Any referendum on a deal that includes an option to Remain is an affront to democracy, we'd be in perpetual neverendums*.

A significant number of Leavers wouldn't accept it and I'd expect violence on the street, so that's another reason to avoid it.

I've learned the lessons from defeat, it helped me realise why Mrs May was crap before everybody else. Have cake and eat it politics is popular, Corbyn is just following the Leave playbook.

*Plus it would set a precedent that the SNP would exploit ruthlessly to overturn the 2014 referendum result.

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

Perhaps in your haste to be a smartarse you failed to notice I have not yet decided if I felt it should be a referendum on the deal or a referendum which included a remain option, nor did I say I would vote to remain or hope that the people would either - it was about how to obtain a resolution(or at least as much of one as is possible), since the government is clearly incapable to figuring out what it wants so that we can have a resolution of some kind.

So 'suck it up, you won' is a load of bollocks, since it wasn't a complaint about what kind of deal we are getting and it being bad and isn't that terrible (it may well be, but that wasn't what this point was about), it was about trying to arrive at a conclusion which has some more public satisfaction, be it soft/hard or remain. Or at least trying to arrive at said conclusion more effectively.

But well done sidestepping that for the point you wanted it to be rather than the point it was. The kind of thinking which lost it for remain, it's good to see no sides have learned any lessons in the past few years, since it's much more satisfying to pretend.

I was not intending to be a smartarse.

Any referendum on a deal that includes an option to Remain is an affront to democracy, we'd be in perpetual neverendums*.

A significant number of Leavers wouldn't accept it and I'd expect violence on the street, so that's another reason to avoid it.

I've learned the lessons from defeat, it helped me realise why Mrs May was crap before everybody else. Have cake and eat it politics is popular, Corbyn is just following the Leave playbook.

*Plus it would set a precedent that the SNP would exploit ruthlessly to overturn the 2014 referendum result.

I think you are right. But I am not sure that you would get what you want. Any new referendum - and I am not opposed to one on the terms you suggest - would almost certainly be highjacked by those who would want the choice of Remain added to it.

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

Perhaps in your haste to be a smartarse you failed to notice I have not yet decided if I felt it should be a referendum on the deal or a referendum which included a remain option, nor did I say I would vote to remain or hope that the people would either - it was about how to obtain a resolution(or at least as much of one as is possible), since the government is clearly incapable to figuring out what it wants so that we can have a resolution of some kind.

So 'suck it up, you won' is a load of bollocks, since it wasn't a complaint about what kind of deal we are getting and it being bad and isn't that terrible (it may well be, but that wasn't what this point was about), it was about trying to arrive at a conclusion which has some more public satisfaction, be it soft/hard or remain. Or at least trying to arrive at said conclusion more effectively.

But well done sidestepping that for the point you wanted it to be rather than the point it was. The kind of thinking which lost it for remain, it's good to see no sides have learned any lessons in the past few years, since it's much more satisfying to pretend.

I was not intending to be a smartarse.

Any referendum on a deal that includes an option to Remain is an affront to democracy, we'd be in perpetual neverendums*.

A significant number of Leavers wouldn't accept it and I'd expect violence on the street, so that's another reason to avoid it.

I've learned the lessons from defeat, it helped me realise why Mrs May was crap before everybody else. Have cake and eat it politics is popular, Corbyn is just following the Leave playbook.

*Plus it would set a precedent that the SNP would exploit ruthlessly to overturn the 2014 referendum result.

We could have a referendum on a hard or soft Brexit I suppose. Obviously Barnier's vote is worth 30 million British ones or so

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm sure it is nothing to do with this.

London property prices fall as much as 15% as Brexit effect deepens

Average price in Wandsworth dips more than £100,000 with falls of up to 15% in capital in 12 months

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/mar/12/london-property-prices-plunge-as-brexit-effect-deepens

Speaking personally my reasoning for agreeing that we need a second referendum (though whether it should be on accepting the deal, to get public buy in as I do think it would pass, or to include a Remain option, I am less sure on) is because of the continued incompetence of May and co. It was a damn hard job before losing the majority, and even harder afterwards, but given the Cabinet is still bickering about what to try and go for and there is so little time available, clearly the government is not capable of determining what to even ask for of the EU, and when it does try something it is something explicitly rejected by the EU half the time.

Therefore while I don't see it entirely resolving the nation's, and it would be very complicated to arrange, nor do I see a political path to it happening right now, I think some kind of at least broad philosophical direction of soft/hard/remain being put back to the people is looking less horrible as time goes on.

We voted to Leave and we must Leave.

People can't complain now if they realise now that Leaving means we get a worse deal than we currently have, they were warned many times beforehand.

You won, suck it up, to paraphrase Sean.

So if we have a bad Brexit, we can overturn it at the 2022 or 2027 general election, I'm fairly certain at least one if not both major parties will campaign on rejoining, wanting to continue economic ruin won't be an election winner I expect.

I can see the posters now:

"We spend X on the NHS lets send it to the EU instead"

Won't have the same impact if Brexit is associated with economic ruin.

Plus the comments of Leavers pre referendum will be used to damage the case of staying out.

We keep on being told that it will be economic ruin yet the people predicting that have so far been continually wrong in their predictions.

Now what happens in the future I don't know and nor do you yet you seem very unwilling to accept that there might be any other outcome than economic ruin.

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

@SeanT is wrong, he had the full benefit of our most esteemed and excellent thoughts on here before the referendum, including very clear direction from Richard Nabavi and Alastair Meeks.
We are not rerunning the referendum just because he's flounced - he should have thought harder before he voted to leave.

I'm sure it is nothing to do with this.

London property prices fall as much as 15% as Brexit effect deepens

Average price in Wandsworth dips more than £100,000 with falls of up to 15% in capital in 12 months

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/mar/12/london-property-prices-plunge-as-brexit-effect-deepens

I wish some of that house price plunging would happen in Edinburgh.

Alas the big fall is in the most expensive homes, London as a whole fell 1.8% - useful, to me at least, but not a gamechanger

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

@SeanT is wrong, he had the full benefit of our most esteemed and excellent thoughts on here before the referendum, including very clear direction from Richard Nabavi and Alastair Meeks.
We are not rerunning the referendum just because he's flounced - he should have thought harder before he voted to leave.

I'm sure it is nothing to do with this.

London property prices fall as much as 15% as Brexit effect deepens

Average price in Wandsworth dips more than £100,000 with falls of up to 15% in capital in 12 months

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/mar/12/london-property-prices-plunge-as-brexit-effect-deepens

Does he still live in that crappy little flat in Camden Town ?

Or has he spent some of his newly acquired fortune on a megalomaniac's mansion ?

So (prime) London prices have gone from being totally insane to slightly less totally insane? Clearly all down to Brexit and nothing else like stamp duty, buy to let tax changes or even more crazily people are no longer willing to pay the crazy prices?

Given the housing crisis and lack of affordability for anyone in London still renting who doesn't earn £100k and have a wealthy mummy and daddy to give them £100k for a deposit - so they can take out a 4 times salary mortgage to buy a one bed in Peckham - it's surely a positive sign!

MTimT said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

@SeanT is wrong, he had the full benefit of our most esteemed and excellent thoughts on here before the referendum, including very clear direction from Richard Nabavi and Alastair Meeks.
We are not rerunning the referendum just because he's flounced - he should have thought harder before he voted to leave.

I'm sure it is nothing to do with this.

London property prices fall as much as 15% as Brexit effect deepens

Average price in Wandsworth dips more than £100,000 with falls of up to 15% in capital in 12 months

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/mar/12/london-property-prices-plunge-as-brexit-effect-deepens

I wish some of that house price plunging would happen in Edinburgh.

Alas the big fall is in the most expensive homes, London as a whole fell 1.8% - useful, to me at least, but not a gamechanger

So it is hurting those most able to afford it, and marginally useful for those who could do with some relief on house prices.

Yes. The ordinary homeowner is basically not affected, with no prospect of negative equity.

another_richard said:

We keep on being told that it will be economic ruin yet the people predicting that have so far been continually wrong in their predictions.

Now what happens in the future I don't know and nor do you yet you seem very unwilling to accept that there might be any other outcome than economic ruin.

My predictions have largely been spot on.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/722391453599723520

I said overturning 43 years membership should be a process not an event, but the man who is charge of Brexit thought it would be easy.

We are in month 16 of triggering article 50 and we still haven't worked out what we want, that's something we should have sorted before we triggered Article 50.

Economic ruin will flow because we're running out of time to get stuff sorted.

There's only one realistic option as I don't think BINO will be sellable, and that's to trigger an extension of Article 50.

In less than 12 weeks time the organisation I work for will have to make decision to move several business divisions to the EU because we won't be able to function with a no deal.

I know several other firms in the field are making similar contingencies.

Not to worry, this sector only exported circa £25 billion per year of services to EU customers.

another_richard said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

Speaking personally my reasoning for agreeing that we need a second referendum (though whether it should be on accepting the deal, to get public buy in as I do think it would pass, or to include a Remain option, I am less sure on) is because of the continued incompetence of May and co. It was a damn hard job before losing the majority, and even harder afterwards, but given the Cabinet is still bickering about what to try and go for and there is so little time available, clearly the government is not capable of determining what to even ask for of the EU, and when it does try something it is something explicitly rejected by the EU half the time.

Therefore while I don't see it entirely resolving the nation's, and it would be very complicated to arrange, nor do I see a political path to it happening right now, I think some kind of at least broad philosophical direction of soft/hard/remain being put back to the people is looking less horrible as time goes on.

We voted to Leave and we must Leave.

People can't complain now if they realise now that Leaving means we get a worse deal than we currently have, they were warned many times beforehand.

You won, suck it up, to paraphrase Sean.

So if we have a bad Brexit, we can overturn it at the 2022 or 2027 general election, I'm fairly certain at least one if not both major parties will campaign on rejoining, wanting to continue economic ruin won't be an election winner I expect.

I can see the posters now:

"We spend X on the NHS lets send it to the EU instead"

Won't have the same impact if Brexit is associated with economic ruin.

Plus the comments of Leavers pre referendum will be used to damage the case of staying out.

We keep on being told that it will be economic ruin yet the people predicting that have so far been continually wrong in their predictions.

Now what happens in the future I don't know and nor do you yet you seem very unwilling to accept that there might be any other outcome than economic ruin.

Let us just imagine that over the last year UK retail sales had fallen by 1.6% while Germany's had increased by 3.9%.

It would be headline news and we would be being told that Brexit had destroyed the UK economy, there would be political uproar and the media would be interviews with redundant shop workers etc.

But that's not happened.

Instead its German retail sales which have fallen 1.6% over the last year and the UK's which have risen 3.9%.

Er! We are still in the EU, from 30 March 2019 we won't - then the Brexshit will hit the fan...

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

@SeanT is wrong, he had the full benefit of our most esteemed and excellent thoughts on here before the referendum, including very clear direction from Richard Nabavi and Alastair Meeks.
We are not rerunning the referendum just because he's flounced - he should have thought harder before he voted to leave.

I'm sure it is nothing to do with this.

London property prices fall as much as 15% as Brexit effect deepens

Average price in Wandsworth dips more than £100,000 with falls of up to 15% in capital in 12 months

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/mar/12/london-property-prices-plunge-as-brexit-effect-deepens

Speaking personally my reasoning for agreeing that we need a second referendum (though whether it should be on accepting the deal, to get public buy in as I do think it would pass, or to include a Remain option, I am less sure on) is because of the continued incompetence of May and co. It was a damn hard job before losing the majority, and even harder afterwards, but given the Cabinet is still bickering about what to try and go for and there is so little time available, clearly the government is not capable of determining what to even ask for of the EU, and when it does try something it is something explicitly rejected by the EU half the time.

Therefore while I don't see it entirely resolving the nation's, and it would be very complicated to arrange, nor do I see a political path to it happening right now, I think some kind of at least broad philosophical direction of soft/hard/remain being put back to the people is looking less horrible as time goes on.

We voted to Leave and we must Leave.

People can't complain now if they realise now that Leaving means we get a worse deal than we currently have, they were warned many times beforehand.

You won, suck it up, to paraphrase Sean.

So if we have a bad Brexit, we can overturn it at the 2022 or 2027 general election, I'm fairly certain at least one if not both major parties will campaign on rejoining, wanting to continue economic ruin won't be an election winner I expect.

I can see us properly out of the EU and with tighter immigration controls until 2027 but a more moderate Labour Party winning in 2027 on a platform to rejoin the EEA and customs union

Duran Duran on BBC4.

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

@SeanT is wrong, he had the full benefit of our most esteemed and excellent thoughts on here before the referendum, including very clear direction from Richard Nabavi and Alastair Meeks.
We are not rerunning the referendum just because he's flounced - he should have thought harder before he voted to leave.

I'm sure it is nothing to do with this.

London property prices fall as much as 15% as Brexit effect deepens

Average price in Wandsworth dips more than £100,000 with falls of up to 15% in capital in 12 months

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/mar/12/london-property-prices-plunge-as-brexit-effect-deepens

Speaking personally my reasoning for agreeing that we need a second referendum (though whether it should be on accepting the deal, to get public buy in as I do think it would pass, or to include a Remain option, I am less sure on) is because of the continued incompetence of May and co. It was a damn hard job before losing the majority, and even harder afterwards, but given the Cabinet is still bickering about what to try and go for and there is so little time available, clearly the government is not capable of determining what to even ask for of the EU, and when it does try something it is something explicitly rejected by the EU half the time.

Therefore while I don't see it entirely resolving the nation's, and it would be very complicated to arrange, nor do I see a political path to it happening right now, I think some kind of at least broad philosophical direction of soft/hard/remain being put back to the people is looking less horrible as time goes on.

We voted to Leave and we must Leave.

People can't complain now if they realise now that Leaving means we get a worse deal than we currently have, they were warned many times beforehand.

You won, suck it up, to paraphrase Sean.

So if we have a bad Brexit, we can overturn it at the 2022 or 2027 general election, I'm fairly certain at least one if not both major parties will campaign on rejoining, wanting to continue economic ruin won't be an election winner I expect.

The EUreferendum was advisory, why do so many people think that it was compulsory? Just curious!

Foxy said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

another_richard said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

@SeanT is wrong, he had the full benefit of our most esteemed and excellent thoughts on here before the referendum, including very clear direction from Richard Nabavi and Alastair Meeks.
We are not rerunning the referendum just because he's flounced - he should have thought harder before he voted to leave.

I'm sure it is nothing to do with this.

London property prices fall as much as 15% as Brexit effect deepens

Average price in Wandsworth dips more than £100,000 with falls of up to 15% in capital in 12 months

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/mar/12/london-property-prices-plunge-as-brexit-effect-deepens

I wish some of that house price plunging would happen in Edinburgh.

Alas the big fall is in the most expensive homes, London as a whole fell 1.8% - useful, to me at least, but not a gamechanger

Surprisingly the ONS had London property returning to positive growth in their most recent report:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/april2018#house-price-index-by-english-region

I suspect it was just a statistical blip but even within London there are some big variations in property price movements.

I imagine some new build flats in less desirable areas sold to overseas investors have had sharp price falls.

Though I doubt there will be much sadness about that from Londoners.

Both ONS (which is Land Registry data) and the two surveys show a lot of volaitlity - not much of it real - month to month. It's pretty clear London is freezing, in property terms, despite the good weather...

They bus them in for the new flats (£500k+) straight from the airport where I am. It's lieka strange tourist destination

Allowing for the devaluation of Sterling, a lot of overseas investors must be sitting on a loss.

I wonder what exchange rate this bloke got:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/business-36880778/what-s-behind-the-huge-chinese-investment-in-sheffield

Ms Merkel was apparently given two weeks by the CSU on 18th June to sort things out. That would run out on Monday unless they've already come to a new agreement:

https://www.economist.com/kaffeeklatsch/2018/06/19/angela-merkel-has-two-weeks-to-keep-germanys-centre-right-together

AndyJS said:

Ms Merkel was apparently given two weeks by the CSU on 18th June to sort things out. That would run out on Monday unless they've already come to a new agreement:

https://www.economist.com/kaffeeklatsch/2018/06/19/angela-merkel-has-two-weeks-to-keep-germanys-centre-right-together

Things tend to get kicked further down the road in Germany.

A break between the CSU and CDU would be a big one to take.

If that does happen then together with the German footballing failure we might well be approaching the end of days.

OchEye said:

JonnyJimmy said:

OchEye said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

@SeanT is wrong, he had the full benefit of our most esteemed and excellent thoughts on here before the referendum, including very clear direction from Richard Nabavi and Alastair Meeks.
We are not rerunning the referendum just because he's flounced - he should have thought harder before he voted to leave.

I'm sure it is nothing to do with this.

London property prices fall as much as 15% as Brexit effect deepens

Average price in Wandsworth dips more than £100,000 with falls of up to 15% in capital in 12 months

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/mar/12/london-property-prices-plunge-as-brexit-effect-deepens

Speaking personally my reasoning for agreeing that we need a second referendum (though whether it should be on accepting the deal, to get public buy in as I do think it would pass, or to include a Remain option, I am less sure on) is because of the continued incompetence of May and co. It was a damn hard job before losing the majority, and even harder afterwards, but given the Cabinet is still bickering about what to try and go for and there is so little time available, clearly the government is not capable of determining what to even ask for of the EU, and when it does try something it is something explicitly rejected by the EU half the time.

Therefore while I don't see it entirely resolving the nation's, and it would be very complicated to arrange, nor do I see a political path to it happening right now, I think some kind of at least broad philosophical direction of soft/hard/remain being put back to the people is looking less horrible as time goes on.

We voted to Leave and we must Leave.

People can't complain now if they realise now that Leaving means we get a worse deal than we currently have, they were warned many times beforehand.

You won, suck it up, to paraphrase Sean.

So if we have a bad Brexit, we can overturn it at the 2022 or 2027 general election, I'm fairly certain at least one if not both major parties will campaign on rejoining, wanting to continue economic ruin won't be an election winner I expect.

The EUreferendum was advisory, why do so many people think that it was compulsory? Just curious!

The government communicated far too clearly to the electorate that it was compulsory for that sleight of hand to work.

It was not sleight of hand, incompetence maybe. But it still is advisory, no matter what anyone says.

It was advisory, but G Miller helpfully allowed the Supreme Court to clear up the legal mess and a bill has passed through parliament.
Taking back control if you will.

Pulpstar said:

OchEye said:

JonnyJimmy said:

OchEye said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

@SeanT is wrong, he had the full benefit of our most esteemed and excellent thoughts on here before the referendum, including very clear direction from Richard Nabavi and Alastair Meeks.
We are not rerunning the referendum just because he's flounced - he should have thought harder before he voted to leave.

I'm sure it is nothing to do with this.

London property prices fall as much as 15% as Brexit effect deepens

Average price in Wandsworth dips more than £100,000 with falls of up to 15% in capital in 12 months

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/mar/12/london-property-prices-plunge-as-brexit-effect-deepens

Speaking personally my reasoning for agreeing that we need a second referendum (though whether it should be on accepting the deal, to get public buy in as I do think it would pass, or to include a Remain option, I am less sure on) is because of the continued incompetence of May and co. It was a damn hard job before losing the

Therefore while I don't see it entirely resolving the nation's, and it would be very complicated to arrange, nor do I see a political path to it happening right now, I think some kind of at least broad philosophical direction of soft/hard/remain being put back to the people is looking less horrible as time goes on.

We voted to Leave and we must Leave.

People can't complain now if they realise now that Leaving means we get a worse deal than we currently have, they were warned many times beforehand.

You won, suck it up, to paraphrase Sean.

So if we have a bad Brexit, we can overturn it at the 2022 or 2027 general election, I'm fairly certain at least one if not both major parties will campaign on rejoining, wanting to continue economic ruin won't be an election winner I expect.

The EUreferendum was advisory, why do so many people think that it was compulsory? Just curious!

The government communicated far too clearly to the electorate that it was compulsory for that sleight of hand to work.

It was not sleight of hand, incompetence maybe. But it still is advisory, no matter what anyone says.

It was advisory, but G Miller helpfully allowed the Supreme Court to clear up the legal mess and a bill has passed through parliament.
Taking back control if you will.

Ah! The sovereignty of Parliament, or is that the Executive or just TMay?

OchEye said:

Pulpstar said:

OchEye said:

JonnyJimmy said:

OchEye said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

@SeanT is wrong, he had the full benefit of our most esteemed and excellent thoughts on here before the referendum, including very clear direction from Richard Nabavi and Alastair Meeks.
We are not rerunning the referendum just because he's flounced - he should have thought harder before he voted to leave.

I'm sure it is nothing to do with this.

London property prices fall as much as 15% as Brexit effect deepens

Average price in Wandsworth dips more than £100,000 with falls of up to 15% in capital in 12 months

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/mar/12/london-property-prices-plunge-as-brexit-effect-deepens

Speaking personally my reasoning for agreeing that we need a second referendum (though whether it should be on accepting the deal, to get public buy in as I do think it would pass, or to include a Remain option, I am less sure on) is because of the continued incompetence of May and co. It was a damn hard job before losing the

Therefore while I don't see it entirely resolving the nation's, and it would be very complicated to arrange, nor do I see a political path to it happening right now, I think some kind of at least broad philosophical direction of soft/hard/remain being put back to the people is looking less horrible as time goes on.

We voted to Leave and we must Leave.

People can't complain now if they realise now that Leaving means we get a worse deal than we currently have, they were warned many times beforehand.

You won, suck it up, to paraphrase Sean.

So if we have a bad Brexit, we can overturn it at the 2022 or 2027 general election, I'm fairly certain at least one if not both major parties will campaign on rejoining, wanting to continue economic ruin won't be an election winner I expect.

The EUreferendum was advisory, why do so many people think that it was compulsory? Just curious!

The government communicated far too clearly to the electorate that it was compulsory for that sleight of hand to work.

It was not sleight of hand, incompetence maybe. But it still is advisory, no matter what anyone says.

It was advisory, but G Miller helpfully allowed the Supreme Court to clear up the legal mess and a bill has passed through parliament.
Taking back control if you will.

Ah! The sovereignty of Parliament, or is that the Executive or just TMay?

The bills have been passed by parliament, so the legislature. Obviously it's tweedleMay and Tweedledavis in the negotiating room with Barnier.

OchEye said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

@SeanT is wrong, he had the full benefit of our most esteemed and excellent thoughts on here before the referendum, including very clear direction from Richard Nabavi and Alastair Meeks.
We are not rerunning the referendum just because he's flounced - he should have thought harder before he voted to leave.

I'm sure it is nothing to do with this.

London property prices fall as much as 15% as Brexit effect deepens

Average price in Wandsworth dips more than £100,000 with falls of up to 15% in capital in 12 months

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/mar/12/london-property-prices-plunge-as-brexit-effect-deepens

Speaking personally my reasoning for agreeing that we need a second referendum (though whether it should be on accepting the deal, to get public buy in as I do think it would pass, or to include a Remain option, I am less sure on) is because of the continued incompetence of May and co. It was a damn hard job before losing the majority, and even harder afterwards, but given the Cabinet is still bickering about what to try and go for and there is so little time available, clearly the government is not capable of determining what to even ask for of the EU, and when it does try something it is something explicitly rejected by the EU half the time.

Therefore while I don't see it entirely resolving the nation's, and it would be very complicated to arrange, nor do I see a political path to it happening right now, I think some kind of at least broad philosophical direction of soft/hard/remain being put back to the people is looking less horrible as time goes on.

We voted to Leave and we must Leave.

People can't complain now if they realise now that Leaving means we get a worse deal than we currently have, they were warned many times beforehand.

You won, suck it up, to paraphrase Sean.

So if we have a bad Brexit, we can overturn it at the 2022 or 2027 general election, I'm fairly certain at least one if not both major parties will campaign on rejoining, wanting to continue economic ruin won't be an election winner I expect.

The EUreferendum was advisory, why do so many people think that it was compulsory? Just curious!

Because the public were told very clearly before the vote, that'd they'd vote once and the result respected. The PM at the time said it explicitly.

The credibility of the entire political requires that some form of "leave" be executed.

another_richard said:

AndyJS said:

Ms Merkel was apparently given two weeks by the CSU on 18th June to sort things out. That would run out on Monday unless they've already come to a new agreement:

https://www.economist.com/kaffeeklatsch/2018/06/19/angela-merkel-has-two-weeks-to-keep-germanys-centre-right-together

Things tend to get kicked further down the road in Germany.

A break between the CSU and CDU would be a big one to take.

If that does happen then together with the German footballing failure we might well be approaching the end of days.

It'll be interesting to see what happens next week on this.

asjohnstone said:

OchEye said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

@SeanT is wrong, he had the full benefit of our most esteemed and excellent thoughts on here before the referendum, including very clear direction from Richard Nabavi and Alastair Meeks.
We are not rerunning the referendum just because he's flounced - he should have thought harder before he voted to leave.

I'm sure it is nothing to do with this.

London property prices fall as much as 15% as Brexit effect deepens

Average price in Wandsworth dips more than £100,000 with falls of up to 15% in capital in 12 months

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/mar/12/london-property-prices-plunge-as-brexit-effect-deepens

Speaking personally my reasoning for agreeing that we need a second referendum (though whether it should be on accepting the deal, to get public buy in as I do think it would pass, or to include a Remain option, I am less sure on) is because of the continued incompetence of May and co. It was a damn hard job before losing the majority, and even harder afterwards, but given the Cabinet is still bickering about what to try and go for and there is so little time available, clearly the government is not capable of determining what to even ask for of the EU, and when it does try something it is something explicitly rejected by the EU half the time.

Therefore while I don't see it entirely resolving the nation's, and it would be very complicated to arrange, nor do I see a political path to it happening right now, I think some kind of at least broad philosophical direction of soft/hard/remain being put back to the people is looking less horrible as time goes on.

We voted to Leave and we must Leave.

People can't complain now if they realise now that Leaving means we get a worse deal than we currently have, they were warned many times beforehand.

You won, suck it up, to paraphrase Sean.

So if we have a bad Brexit, we can overturn it at the 2022 or 2027 general election, I'm fairly certain at least one if not both major parties will campaign on rejoining, wanting to continue economic ruin won't be an election winner I expect.

The EUreferendum was advisory, why do so many people think that it was compulsory? Just curious!

Because the public were told very clearly before the vote, that'd they'd vote once and the result respected. The PM at the time said it explicitly.

The credibility of the entire political requires that some form of "leave" be executed.

The PM also said he'd stay in the job whatever the result. He was full of shit, everyone knows it. That doesn't give him the right to bind future governments.

"Rolf Degen
‏@DegenRolf

One possible reason why the majority of people falsely believe that the world is getting worse: Concept creep. http://science.sciencemag.org/content/360/6396/1465 … "

https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1012716792945528832

Pulpstar said:

Bouncing back from humiliation in the world cup, the Germans have won todays' internet:

Porsche have broken the Nordschleife record:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=5&v=PQmSUHhP3ug

Yes, good to see someone finally actually had the guts to go there and get the record (and definitely win the internet for the day!). Bellof’s 35-year-old old 6’11” has been do-able for years now, but breaking it involved turning up with a well prepared car and driver and actually going round the track. Sadly there’s not too many races there any more, and most of them are for slower GT3 cars and on a different circuit layout to the old ‘Ring.

It’s amazing how high is the current state of automotive engineering, when it doesn’t have to produce a car that complies with the rules for any actual race series. Hopefully this record inspires others to go for it, anyone got an F1 car lying around somewhere?

williamglenn said:

NY Times has new accusations about Jim Mellon.

https://twitter.com/allmattnyt/status/1012830609193029632?s=21

Who is this Aaron Banks?

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

We keep on being told that it will be economic ruin yet the people predicting that have so far been continually wrong in their predictions.

Now what happens in the future I don't know and nor do you yet you seem very unwilling to accept that there might be any other outcome than economic ruin.

My predictions have largely been spot on.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/722391453599723520

I said overturning 43 years membership should be a process not an event, but the man who is charge of Brexit thought it would be easy.

We are in month 16 of triggering article 50 and we still haven't worked out what we want, that's something we should have sorted before we triggered Article 50.

Economic ruin will flow because we're running out of time to get stuff sorted.

There's only one realistic option as I don't think BINO will be sellable, and that's to trigger an extension of Article 50.

In less than 12 weeks time the organisation I work for will have to make decision to move several business divisions to the EU because we won't be able to function with a no deal.

I know several other firms in the field are making similar contingencies.

Not to worry, this sector only exported circa £25 billion per year of services to EU customers.

What predictions ???

All you ever do is show that tweet full of gibberish.

Show us some actual predictions about unemployment or house prices or the stock market or the trade deficit or the construction industry or retail sales or business investment or anything to do with the economics of the last two years.

If you made any there's no shame in them being wrong, whatever they were they wouldn't have been as bollox as those that the Treasury made for George Osborne.

in the first quarter of this year, the country's households spent £5.8 billion more than they received.

IanB2 said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

We keep on being told that it will be economic ruin yet the people predicting that have so far been continually wrong in their predictions.

Now what happens in the future I don't know and nor do you yet you seem very unwilling to accept that there might be any other outcome than economic ruin.

My predictions have largely been spot on.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/722391453599723520

I said overturning 43 years membership should be a process not an event, but the man who is charge of Brexit thought it would be easy.

We are in month 16 of triggering article 50 and we still haven't worked out what we want, that's something we should have sorted before we triggered Article 50.

Economic ruin will flow because we're running out of time to get stuff sorted.

There's only one realistic option as I don't think BINO will be sellable, and that's to trigger an extension of Article 50.

In less than 12 weeks time the organisation I work for will have to make decision to move several business divisions to the EU because we won't be able to function with a no deal.

I know several other firms in the field are making similar contingencies.

Not to worry, this sector only exported circa £25 billion per year of services to EU customers.

What predictions ???

All you ever do is show that tweet full of gibberish.

Show us some actual predictions about unemployment or house prices or the stock market or the trade deficit or the construction industry or retail sales or business investment or anything to do with the economics of the last two years.

If you made any there's no shame in them being wrong, whatever they were they wouldn't have been as bollox as those that the Treasury made for George Osborne.

in the first quarter of this year, the country's households spent £5.8 billion more than they received.

And the government spent around £9bn more that it received. As a country the UK is still not even close to living within its means.

rcs1000 said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

MTimT said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

@SeanT is wrong, he had the full benefit of our most esteemed and excellent thoughts on here before the referendum, including very clear direction from Richard Nabavi and Alastair Meeks.
We are not rerunning the referendum just because he's flounced - he should have thought harder before he voted to leave.

I'm sure it is nothing to do with this.

London property prices fall as much as 15% as Brexit effect deepens

Average price in Wandsworth dips more than £100,000 with falls of up to 15% in capital in 12 months

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/mar/12/london-property-prices-plunge-as-brexit-effect-deepens

I wish some of that house price plunging would happen in Edinburgh.

Alas the big fall is in the most expensive homes, London as a whole fell 1.8% - useful, to me at least, but not a gamechanger

So it is hurting those most able to afford it, and marginally useful for those who could do with some relief on house prices.

Yes. The ordinary homeowner is basically not affected, with no prospect of negative equity.

I think this is a little naive.

A huge portion of the stock of housing loans are in London, and LTVs are highest here. A decline in London house prices negatively impacts the ability of your bank to lend in Bolton. If the decline was serious, new lending dry up, and that would affect the whole country.

Will remortgaging at 25+ % ownership for OO be OK ?

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Bouncing back from humiliation in the world cup, the Germans have won todays' internet:

Porsche have broken the Nordschleife record:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=5&v=PQmSUHhP3ug

Yes, good to see someone finally actually had the guts to go there and get the record (and definitely win the internet for the day!). Bellof’s 35-year-old old 6’11” has been do-able for years now, but breaking it involved turning up with a well prepared car and driver and actually going round the track. Sadly there’s not too many races there any more, and most of them are for slower GT3 cars and on a different circuit layout to the old ‘Ring.

It’s amazing how high is the current state of automotive engineering, when it doesn’t have to produce a car that complies with the rules for any actual race series. Hopefully this record inspires others to go for it, anyone got an F1 car lying around somewhere?

A decade or so ago, Honda went for the F1 speed record - 400 KPH (~250 MPH) at Bonneville. They got the record, but didn't quite reach 400 KPH.

Whilst sexy, there are grave doubts as to how much such records actually impact cars for the everyday pleb user - except for putting up prices ...

(On a related note, an EV has just done Pike's Peak in under eight minutes. Effing amazing.)
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/06/757148-volkswagen-makes-racing-history-with-record-breaking-electric-race-car/

Pulpstar said:

Bouncing back from humiliation in the world cup, the Germans have won todays' internet:

Porsche have broken the Nordschleife record:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=5&v=PQmSUHhP3ug

They lapped the ring in half the time that I did.

Philip_Thompson said:

Sandpit said:

IanB2 said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

We keep on being told that it will be economic ruin yet the people predicting that have so far been continually wrong in their predictions.

Now what happens in the future I don't know and nor do you yet you seem very unwilling to accept that there might be any other outcome than economic ruin.

My predictions have largely been spot on.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/722391453599723520

I said overturning 43 years membership should be a process not an event, but the man who is charge of Brexit thought it would be easy.

We are in month 16 of triggering article 50 and we still haven't worked out what we want, that's something we should have sorted before we triggered Article 50.

Economic ruin will flow because we're running out of time to get stuff sorted.

There's only one realistic option as I don't think BINO will be sellable, and that's to trigger an extension of Article 50.

In less than 12 weeks time the organisation I work for will have to make decision to move several business divisions to the EU because we won't be able to function with a no deal.

I know several other firms in the field are making similar contingencies.

Not to worry, this sector only exported circa £25 billion per year of services to EU customers.

What predictions ???

All you ever do is show that tweet full of gibberish.

Show us some actual predictions about unemployment or house prices or the stock market or the trade deficit or the construction industry or retail sales or business investment or anything to do with the economics of the last two years.

If you made any there's no shame in them being wrong, whatever they were they wouldn't have been as bollox as those that the Treasury made for George Osborne.

in the first quarter of this year, the country's households spent £5.8 billion more than they received.

And the government spent around £9bn more that it received. As a country the UK is still not even close to living within its means.

But its getting closer.

Compared to 2010 when we were running a £175bn annual deficit the change is remarkable especially when you factor in that we have slashed that deficit without triggering a recession and that our current deficit includes the interest payments on previous ones.

Yes, it’s a lot better than it was, but still not there yet. Gordon Brown has a lot to answer for, running up massive ‘investments’ while times were good.

Sandpit said:

Yes, it’s a lot better than it was, but still not there yet. Gordon Brown has a lot to answer for, running up massive ‘investments’ while times were good.

One of the sillier notions of Brown - and what should have been a warning sign he didn't know what he was talking about - was that he claimed he had abolished 'boom and bust' I.e. cyclical economics, but then said he was able to 'borrow to invest over the economic cycle.'

The resulting borrowing binge for current account spending was shall we say unfortunate.

On topic, if Michael Gove was the answer, WTF was the question?

Mr. JohnL, you ignore Brown bringing forward lots of spending to try and create a pre-election economic boost, borrowing £153bn during a boom, and rejigging financial regulation which didn't exactly work well.

F1: hmm. There's a special on Mercedes to get a front row lock-out at 3 (Ladbrokes). There was one at 5 last week that I thought was silly, which shows what I know.

Already backed Bottas for fastest qualifier, each way (so, pays out top 2) at 7, but if you haven't the Mercedes bet is worth considering, although it's a bit mean.

Mind you, you could try matching it with a smaller stakes bet on Vettel for pole each way. Not sure what the German's odds are, so might not be long enough to work.

Travelling up to Aberdeen yesterday I listened to the story of Anauran Bevan 'Out of Tredegar'

Narrated by Michael Sheen. BBC at its best. it even managed a short but perfectly formed swipe at Brexit. Really not to be missed.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0b7hl3d

DecrepitJohnL said:

ydoethur said:

On topic, if Michael Gove was the answer, WTF was the question?

Someone has to win. Gove is at least in the Cabinet unlike Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Can anyone remember what happened a month ago to trigger this sudden upswing in Gove's rating, and JRM's plunge? Hunt and Javid will be pleased at their more modest rises too.

Given a choice between Michael Gove and Jeremy Corbyn, I would vote for Corbyn.

Just because he's in the cabinet doesn't mean he's any different from Rees-Mogg in any meaningful way. It just means he's more ambitious.