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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The lastest Lewisham East odds and expectations
With less than 2 hours of voting left the Lewisham East by election and an easy Labour hold looks like the market expectation with the Lib Dems in second. I wonder if the value is backing the turnout at sub 30% at 12/1 pic.twitter.com/nGs9m3wfEk
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First0
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II0
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Theresa turned out to be very deceitful then?
Who knew!
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@Philip Thompson
BBCs take on it
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44481447
who goes first May or Merkel ?0 -
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1007316006241554433GIN1138 said:Theresa turned out to be very deceitful then?
Who knew!0 -
The lib who's?0
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Yes, but it probably rarely came up at other places which voted Leave by the same proportion, I don't get how that measures enthusiasm. By the things you've judged it by it should not have voted Leave at all, but it did, so using that same evidence to judge how enthusiastically they did so seems suspect.NickPalmer said:
By the lack of questions about Europe at all the hustings events, and by the low support for Referendum and UKIP at successive elections. The subject just rarely came up.kle4 said:
How do you judge that? Are there seats which voted Leave by the same proportion, but with greater enthusiasm?NickPalmer said:
I just don't know how that enthusiasm is measured.
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Totally O/T...Just seen the first level of hitman 2. Looks bloody brilliant. You can shove your anthem bollocks where the sun doesn't shine. Square enix must be bonkers to have let this IP go.0
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I would disagree with your last tweet - the LD public profile is low, as is their polling level. Some embarrassment at hyping a second place not achieved would swiftly be forgotten, and at least loudly declaring a goal and what would constitute victory for them in this context, showing progress, will encourage the supporters and maybe help them get some attention.
Expectations management is only really an issue for big parties.0 -
I think that's a plausible explanation for what's happened, or at least what the government is expecting to happen - I find it hard to credit why else they would have agreed to mislead the rebel MPs/obfuscated things so that the rebel MPs became misled given it would make them impossible to deal with in future, and encourage the lords to send the Grieve amendment back for another go.CarlottaVance said:0 -
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/1007334593765302272SeanT said:
It doesn't seem that bad an idea, frankly.0 -
If this was Tony Blair government I could see it, but this is may we are talking about. She couldn't even outmanuorve the tv stations over debates properly.kle4 said:
I think that's a plausible explanation for what's happened, or at least what the government is expecting to happen - I find it hard to credit why else they would have agreed to mislead the rebel MPs/obfuscated things so that the rebel MPs became misled given it would make them impossible to deal with in future, and encourage the lords to send the Grieve amendment back for another go.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Second place would be some sign of progress from the Yellows, and rather embarrassing for the blues.
Anything other than a VERY easy Labour hold would probably convince even Corbyn it's time to go. Surely even low turnout couldn't put this in peril?
18% (Manchester Central, 2012) is of course the key figure to beat...because if they can't get out more voters than that, it suggests the Labour vote is less enthusiastic about Corbyn than they were about Miliband.0 -
SeanT doesn't say if the £100 ph includes the necessary booze. Would this form part of negotiations? And if so will he do it for less if vintage claret is involved and demand more if it's only a few bottles of Bud?kle4 said:
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/1007334593765302272SeanT said:
It doesn't seem that bad an idea, frankly.0 -
Even a by-election defeat wouldn't convince Corbyn to go, let alone his fanatical faithful. He is truly the Jezziah.ydoethur said:Second place would be some sign of progress from the Yellows, and rather embarrassing for the blues.
Anything other than a VERY easy Labour hold would probably convince even Corbyn it's time to go. Surely even low turnout couldn't put this in peril?
18% (Manchester Central, 2012) is of course the key figure to beat...because if they can't get out more voters than that, it suggests the Labour vote is less enthusiastic about Corbyn than they were about Miliband.0 -
I don't think it was an intentional outmaneuvering. I'm not certain it will prove successful for one thing.FrancisUrquhart said:
If this was Tony Blair government I could see it, but this is may we are talking about. She couldn't even outmanuorve the tv stations over debates properly.kle4 said:
I think that's a plausible explanation for what's happened, or at least what the government is expecting to happen - I find it hard to credit why else they would have agreed to mislead the rebel MPs/obfuscated things so that the rebel MPs became misled given it would make them impossible to deal with in future, and encourage the lords to send the Grieve amendment back for another go.CarlottaVance said:
What I think is that May panicked, they said anything at all to win the vote, then tried to fudge it, pissing off a lot of people, but that they think that they can actually win after all anyway. They might well be wrong about that, but I find it plausible why May seemingly decided misleading their own MPs was the way to go.0 -
I think you underestimate the nature of Jezza's limpet like qualities.ydoethur said:
Anything other than a VERY easy Labour hold would probably convince even Corbyn it's time to go.
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You should be pleased - she is calling out those who do not want us to leave - politics heyGIN1138 said:Theresa turned out to be very deceitful then?
Who knew!0 -
FTPT
https://www.twitter.com/jacobso/status/1007019318293553153Pulpstar said:What channel/journo is this news report on/by ?
Start of Twitter thread here.
Bare in mind this is a licensed child care facility staffed by professionals and it is the only facility the press have been allowed to see.
They will be setting up tent city internment camps without any form of child care licensing.0 -
I think Sir Graham Brady's postie will be very busy in the next few days.0
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I did think of putting 'Theuniondivvie said:
I think you underestimate the nature of Jezza's limpet like qualities.ydoethur said:
Anything other than a VERY easy Labour hold would probably convince even Corbyn it's time to go.the LimpetJeremy Corbyn.'
But I think a loss in Lewisham on top of the ongoing Brexit mess and his failure to make the slightest headway in the polls would probably lead his supporters to conclude he's not the Jezziah, he's a very naughty boy.
I should stress however that I will be beyond astonished if Labour get below 50% of the vote.0 -
Perhaps they are now going to accuse her of bad faith.kle4 said:
I don't think it was an intentional outmaneuvering. I'm not certain it will prove successful for one thing.FrancisUrquhart said:
If this was Tony Blair government I could see it, but this is may we are talking about. She couldn't even outmanuorve the tv stations over debates properly.kle4 said:
I think that's a plausible explanation for what's happened, or at least what the government is expecting to happen - I find it hard to credit why else they would have agreed to mislead the rebel MPs/obfuscated things so that the rebel MPs became misled given it would make them impossible to deal with in future, and encourage the lords to send the Grieve amendment back for another go.CarlottaVance said:
What I think is that May panicked, they said anything at all to win the vote, then tried to fudge it, pissing off a lot of people, but that they think that they can actually win after all anyway. They might well be wrong about that, but I find it plausible why May seemingly decided misleading their own MPs was the way to go.0 -
If the Lib Dems can get over 28.2%, they can boast about it being their best ever performance in the constituency. 25% would be a good result though, I'd expect them to get lower.0
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Though it was a Tory seat until 1992!ydoethur said:
I did think of putting 'Theuniondivvie said:
I think you underestimate the nature of Jezza's limpet like qualities.ydoethur said:
Anything other than a VERY easy Labour hold would probably convince even Corbyn it's time to go.the LimpetJeremy Corbyn.'
But I think a loss in Lewisham on top of the ongoing Brexit mess and his failure to make the slightest headway in the polls would probably lead his supporters to conclude he's not the Jezziah, he's a very naughty boy.
I should stress however that I will be beyond astonished if Labour get below 50% of the vote.0 -
I've given up trying to work out who's playing who.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You should be pleased - she is calling out those who do not want us to leave - politics heyGIN1138 said:Theresa turned out to be very deceitful then?
Who knew!
But what I do think is that this Parliament has no majority for Brexit... Or anything else...0 -
And the rebels want Boris do theyTheScreamingEagles said:I think Sir Graham Brady's postie will be very busy in the next few days.
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Why? So far the Tories have uncharacteristically shown the backbone of a Chuka Ummuna on this issue.TheScreamingEagles said:I think Sir Graham Brady's postie will be very busy in the next few days.
Theresa May still has one priceless asset left - she is less unpalatable to both sides than any possible alternative. Until such a One emerges, plotters will probably hold their hands.
(That capital O is a typo, btw, but I like it so I'm leaving it.)0 -
I would be surprised if they don't. Clearly she thinks meeting their demands will be too much for the others though, and is gambling that, despite what she thought at the time, she can get it through without them and is prepared to accept their fury.justin124 said:
Perhaps they are now going to accuse her of bad faith.kle4 said:
I don't think it was an intentional outmaneuvering. I'm not certain it will prove successful for one thing.FrancisUrquhart said:
If this was Tony Blair government I could see it, but this is may we are talking about. She couldn't even outmanuorve the tv stations over debates properly.kle4 said:
I think that's a plausible explanation for what's happened, or at least what the government is expecting to happen - I find it hard to credit why else they would have agreed to mislead the rebel MPs/obfuscated things so that the rebel MPs became misled given it would make them impossible to deal with in future, and encourage the lords to send the Grieve amendment back for another go.CarlottaVance said:
What I think is that May panicked, they said anything at all to win the vote, then tried to fudge it, pissing off a lot of people, but that they think that they can actually win after all anyway. They might well be wrong about that, but I find it plausible why May seemingly decided misleading their own MPs was the way to go.0 -
is the count tomorrow?0
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I believe that before the LD collapse the Tories were third in this seat so it would not be such a shock in the current circumstances.ydoethur said:Second place would be some sign of progress from the Yellows, and rather embarrassing for the blues.
Anything other than a VERY easy Labour hold would probably convince even Corbyn it's time to go. Surely even low turnout couldn't put this in peril?
18% (Manchester Central, 2012) is of course the key figure to beat...because if they can't get out more voters than that, it suggests the Labour vote is less enthusiastic about Corbyn than they were about Miliband.0 -
Good grief, Justin, you of all people taking no account of boundary changes? I'm shocked. Shocked, I tell you!!justin124 said:
Though it was a Tory seat until 1992!ydoethur said:
I did think of putting 'Theuniondivvie said:
I think you underestimate the nature of Jezza's limpet like qualities.ydoethur said:
Anything other than a VERY easy Labour hold would probably convince even Corbyn it's time to go.the LimpetJeremy Corbyn.'
But I think a loss in Lewisham on top of the ongoing Brexit mess and his failure to make the slightest headway in the polls would probably lead his supporters to conclude he's not the Jezziah, he's a very naughty boy.
I should stress however that I will be beyond astonished if Labour get below 50% of the vote.0 -
If May is prepared to deceive them (which they seem to think she did, even if she would say otherwise) then their previous reluctance to unintentionally engender such an outcome might alter.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the rebels want Boris do theyTheScreamingEagles said:I think Sir Graham Brady's postie will be very busy in the next few days.
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It won't be Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the rebels want Boris do theyTheScreamingEagles said:I think Sir Graham Brady's postie will be very busy in the next few days.
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No real boundary changes! On the other hand, there has been demographic change. Nevertheless 1992 is not such a long time ago.ydoethur said:
Good grief, Justin, you of all people taking no account of boundary changes? I'm shocked. Shocked, I tell you!!justin124 said:
Though it was a Tory seat until 1992!ydoethur said:
I did think of putting 'Theuniondivvie said:
I think you underestimate the nature of Jezza's limpet like qualities.ydoethur said:
Anything other than a VERY easy Labour hold would probably convince even Corbyn it's time to go.the LimpetJeremy Corbyn.'
But I think a loss in Lewisham on top of the ongoing Brexit mess and his failure to make the slightest headway in the polls would probably lead his supporters to conclude he's not the Jezziah, he's a very naughty boy.
I should stress however that I will be beyond astonished if Labour get below 50% of the vote.0 -
They came close to winning it in 2010.felix said:
I believe that before the LD collapse the Tories were third in this seat so it would not be such a shock in the current circumstances.ydoethur said:Second place would be some sign of progress from the Yellows, and rather embarrassing for the blues.
Anything other than a VERY easy Labour hold would probably convince even Corbyn it's time to go. Surely even low turnout couldn't put this in peril?
18% (Manchester Central, 2012) is of course the key figure to beat...because if they can't get out more voters than that, it suggests the Labour vote is less enthusiastic about Corbyn than they were about Miliband.
Well, when I say 'close' - fifteen points behind. Closer than he Tories have been in any election for 26 years, anyway!0 -
Who from?TheScreamingEagles said:I think Sir Graham Brady's postie will be very busy in the next few days.
The hardcore Remainers don't seem to have enough to trigger a ballot and will surely fear a true-believer Brexiteer taking over.
The hardcore Brexiteers don't seem to be willing to push too hard either for fear of losing more time or control of the situation.0 -
Just given someone 5/1 on turnout 60%+ - which would be a record since 1997.0
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Who thenTheScreamingEagles said:
It won't be Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the rebels want Boris do theyTheScreamingEagles said:I think Sir Graham Brady's postie will be very busy in the next few days.
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LD's expect to increase their vote by 4 to 25 %. Alright, that is more specific than saying 0 to 100 %.0
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My view is Merkel didn’t invite them in out of the kindness of her heart, it was cold and calculating based on Germany’s horrendous demographic time bomb. She invited them in to make up the short fall, to exploit them, in crappy jobs and wage poverty.Alanbrooke said:@Philip Thompson
BBCs take on it
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44481447
who goes first May or Merkel ?
The voters of Germany and Britain are largely pig ignorant of the demographic time bomb governments are wrestling with, voters just think the country’s full and don’t like the way immigration is changing it, the voters don’t realise how embarrassing and futile this little period of demanding politicians sort out immigration will eventually look.
In future decades Britain today will be used as a text book example. There currently isn’t an immigration policy to satisfy voters, merely the promise of one. The voters will not get one, because no brexit or hard brexit the British government will never have the power to introduce it. To some degree never in history did it have that power, and in 21st century globalised economy it now never can have. Whatever little control sovereign governments did have over immigration went the way of the Dodo when container ships, internet and demographic time bombs came along.0 -
With ERG members cancelling their prior letters no doubt! The pro-EU group doesn't have the numbers to even call a vote or no confidence.TheScreamingEagles said:I think Sir Graham Brady's postie will be very busy in the next few days.
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Reliable sources say that there are some where between 38-42 letters sitting in Mr Brady's inbox, only takes a 10 hardcore remainers to send in letters to trigger a VONC.Philip_Thompson said:
Who from?TheScreamingEagles said:I think Sir Graham Brady's postie will be very busy in the next few days.
The hardcore Remainers don't seem to have enough to trigger a ballot and will surely fear a true-believer Brexiteer taking over.
The hardcore Brexiteers don't seem to be willing to push too hard either for fear of losing more time or control of the situation.0 -
I always thought - as do most voters- that politics was just another word for deceit plus Gieve and Soubry are both lawyers and that is their stock in trade.kle4 said:
If May is prepared to deceive them (which they seem to think she did, even if she would say otherwise) then their previous reluctance to unintentionally engender such an outcome might alter.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the rebels want Boris do theyTheScreamingEagles said:I think Sir Graham Brady's postie will be very busy in the next few days.
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That assumes the 38-42 are still there and that they don't already include the likes of Anna Soubry etcTheScreamingEagles said:
Reliable sources say that there are some where between 38-42 letters sitting in Mr Brady's inbox, only takes a 10 hardcore remainers to send in letters to trigger a VONC.Philip_Thompson said:
Who from?TheScreamingEagles said:I think Sir Graham Brady's postie will be very busy in the next few days.
The hardcore Remainers don't seem to have enough to trigger a ballot and will surely fear a true-believer Brexiteer taking over.
The hardcore Brexiteers don't seem to be willing to push too hard either for fear of losing more time or control of the situation.0 -
I lived there from 1991 until 2008 and believe me the demographic changes in the that part of London have been very dramatic.justin124 said:
No real boundary changes! On the other hand, there has been demographic change. Nevertheless 1992 is not such a long time ago.ydoethur said:
Good grief, Justin, you of all people taking no account of boundary changes? I'm shocked. Shocked, I tell you!!justin124 said:
Though it was a Tory seat until 1992!ydoethur said:
I did think of putting 'Theuniondivvie said:
I think you underestimate the nature of Jezza's limpet like qualities.ydoethur said:
Anything other than a VERY easy Labour hold would probably convince even Corbyn it's time to go.the LimpetJeremy Corbyn.'
But I think a loss in Lewisham on top of the ongoing Brexit mess and his failure to make the slightest headway in the polls would probably lead his supporters to conclude he's not the Jezziah, he's a very naughty boy.
I should stress however that I will be beyond astonished if Labour get below 50% of the vote.0 -
Sh eis turning out to be a class b1tch ! Who would have thunk that ? A female Machiavelli.kle4 said:
I don't think it was an intentional outmaneuvering. I'm not certain it will prove successful for one thing.FrancisUrquhart said:
If this was Tony Blair government I could see it, but this is may we are talking about. She couldn't even outmanuorve the tv stations over debates properly.kle4 said:
I think that's a plausible explanation for what's happened, or at least what the government is expecting to happen - I find it hard to credit why else they would have agreed to mislead the rebel MPs/obfuscated things so that the rebel MPs became misled given it would make them impossible to deal with in future, and encourage the lords to send the Grieve amendment back for another go.CarlottaVance said:
What I think is that May panicked, they said anything at all to win the vote, then tried to fudge it, pissing off a lot of people, but that they think that they can actually win after all anyway. They might well be wrong about that, but I find it plausible why May seemingly decided misleading their own MPs was the way to go.0 -
Justin, 26 years ago there was a bloody great coal mine outside my house. There is not one here now (or at least, if there is it's really well hidden).justin124 said:
No real boundary changes! On the other hand, there has been demographic change. Nevertheless 1992 is not such a long time ago.ydoethur said:
Good grief, Justin, you of all people taking no account of boundary changes? I'm shocked. Shocked, I tell you!!justin124 said:
Though it was a Tory seat until 1992!ydoethur said:
I did think of putting 'Theuniondivvie said:
I think you underestimate the nature of Jezza's limpet like qualities.ydoethur said:
Anything other than a VERY easy Labour hold would probably convince even Corbyn it's time to go.the LimpetJeremy Corbyn.'
But I think a loss in Lewisham on top of the ongoing Brexit mess and his failure to make the slightest headway in the polls would probably lead his supporters to conclude he's not the Jezziah, he's a very naughty boy.
I should stress however that I will be beyond astonished if Labour get below 50% of the vote.
Without wishing to make you feel old, 26 years ago I was at primary school. 31 years ago I hadn't even started primary school.
It's a VERY long time since the Conservatives held this seat (and I think you're underplaying the boundary changes although it's worth noting that even before they kicked in Labour were topping 50%). Second place would be a reasonable result. Third would be poor. A win would be the equivalent of Jean Claude Juncker having a lucid moment.0 -
I know one or two reliable sources who told none of the Pro EU or Cameroons had sent in any letters to Sir Graham Brady.Philip_Thompson said:
That assumes the 38-42 are still there and that they don't already include the likes of Anna Soubry etcTheScreamingEagles said:
Reliable sources say that there are some where between 38-42 letters sitting in Mr Brady's inbox, only takes a 10 hardcore remainers to send in letters to trigger a VONC.Philip_Thompson said:
Who from?TheScreamingEagles said:I think Sir Graham Brady's postie will be very busy in the next few days.
The hardcore Remainers don't seem to have enough to trigger a ballot and will surely fear a true-believer Brexiteer taking over.
The hardcore Brexiteers don't seem to be willing to push too hard either for fear of losing more time or control of the situation.
They remember the lessons of 2003.0 -
That's why No Deal and No Brexit seem the most likely outcomes - the parliament (and the Tory Party) can politically only accept things which apparently are no goers. It's not even a matter of May capitulating at the end of it, since it may be simply impossible for her to do so.williamglenn said:
I may be naiive, but even among the murky depths of politics there must be times when you need to trust someone, on your side or another side, and while spin and obfuscation and other tactics are all part of the game, certain behaviours, direct deceipt for instance, will not be regarded as sensible tactics, and will lead to personal disagreements the likes of which will cause some people to behave irrationally out of anger down the line.felix said:
I always thought - as do most voters- that politics was just another word for deceit plus Gieve and Soubry are both lawyers and that is their stock in trade.kle4 said:
If May is prepared to deceive them (which they seem to think she did, even if she would say otherwise) then their previous reluctance to unintentionally engender such an outcome might alter.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the rebels want Boris do theyTheScreamingEagles said:I think Sir Graham Brady's postie will be very busy in the next few days.
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Re US child scandal...if you want to be really shocked, look up the story / video of Willowbrook.0
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Surely if the pro-EU mob want to bring her down the ERG will withdraw their letters meaning the numbers won't be there.TheScreamingEagles said:
Reliable sources say that there are some where between 38-42 letters sitting in Mr Brady's inbox, only takes a 10 hardcore remainers to send in letters to trigger a VONC.Philip_Thompson said:
Who from?TheScreamingEagles said:I think Sir Graham Brady's postie will be very busy in the next few days.
The hardcore Remainers don't seem to have enough to trigger a ballot and will surely fear a true-believer Brexiteer taking over.
The hardcore Brexiteers don't seem to be willing to push too hard either for fear of losing more time or control of the situation.0 -
Big_G_NorthWales said:
Who thenTheScreamingEagles said:
It won't be Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the rebels want Boris do theyTheScreamingEagles said:I think Sir Graham Brady's postie will be very busy in the next few days.
That's a good question actually.
In the event of a leadership contest just who would be the flag-bearer for Tory Remainers?
Hammond?0 -
She's pissed them off too.MaxPB said:
Surely if the pro-EU mob want to bring her down the ERG will withdraw their letters meaning the numbers won't be there.TheScreamingEagles said:
Reliable sources say that there are some where between 38-42 letters sitting in Mr Brady's inbox, only takes a 10 hardcore remainers to send in letters to trigger a VONC.Philip_Thompson said:
Who from?TheScreamingEagles said:I think Sir Graham Brady's postie will be very busy in the next few days.
The hardcore Remainers don't seem to have enough to trigger a ballot and will surely fear a true-believer Brexiteer taking over.
The hardcore Brexiteers don't seem to be willing to push too hard either for fear of losing more time or control of the situation.0 -
Hammond doesn't appear to want the job. Realistically at this moment that leaves Javid.GIN1138 said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Who thenTheScreamingEagles said:
It won't be Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the rebels want Boris do theyTheScreamingEagles said:I think Sir Graham Brady's postie will be very busy in the next few days.
That's a good question actually.
In the event of a leadership contest just who would be the flag-bearer for Tory Remainers?
Hammond?0 -
Being serious I agree - but for Soubry to bleat about sincerity after her appalling attack on Caroline Flint in the Chanber yesterday makes me want to puke. She is completely unhinged by Brexit.kle4 said:
That's why No Deal and No Brexit seem the most likely outcomes - the parliament (and the Tory Party) can politically only accept things which apparently are no goers. It's not even a matter of May capitulating at the end of it, since it may be simply impossible for her to do so.williamglenn said:
I may be naiive, but even among the murky depths of politics there must be times when you need to trust someone, on your side or another side, and while spin and obfuscation and other tactics are all part of the game, certain behaviours, direct deceipt for instance, will not be regarded as sensible tactics, and will lead to personal disagreements the likes of which will cause some people to behave irrationally out of anger down the line.felix said:
I always thought - as do most voters- that politics was just another word for deceit plus Gieve and Soubry are both lawyers and that is their stock in trade.kle4 said:
If May is prepared to deceive them (which they seem to think she did, even if she would say otherwise) then their previous reluctance to unintentionally engender such an outcome might alter.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the rebels want Boris do theyTheScreamingEagles said:I think Sir Graham Brady's postie will be very busy in the next few days.
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That is what makes me laugh about many supporters of Brexit. They simply have not worked out that politicians have been economical with the truth and in the worse case downright liars. Immigration has to continue due to the demographics, it all goes down to personal interest: Does an individual want to be the person who does not receive a Pension or Health care when the music stops (No Immigration). I don't think many unless they are fabulously wealthy will answer in the positive.LordOfReason said:
My view is Merkel didn’t invite them in out of the kindness of her heart, it was cold and calculating based on Germany’s horrendous demographic time bomb. She invited them in to make up the short fall, to exploit them, in crappy jobs and wage poverty.Alanbrooke said:@Philip Thompson
BBCs take on it
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44481447
who goes first May or Merkel ?
The voters of Germany and Britain are largely pig ignorant of the demographic time bomb governments are wrestling with, voters just think the country’s full and don’t like the way immigration is changing it, the voters don’t realise how embarrassing and futile this little period of demanding politicians sort out immigration will eventually look.
In future decades Britain today will be used as a text book example. There currently isn’t an immigration policy to satisfy voters, merely the promise of one. The voters will not get one, because no brexit or hard brexit the British government will never have the power to introduce it. To some degree never in history did it have that power, and in 21st century globalised economy it now never can have. Whatever little control sovereign governments did have over immigration went the way of the Dodo when container ships, internet and demographic time bombs came along.
The need for Immigration is a well known secret of the establishment, something that even Farage/ Boris/ Fox and Mogg buy into in couched terms.0 -
They could also veto any FTA with the UK too. After all, 27 countries have to agree.SeanT said:
lolCarlottaVance said:
Amazed Scott P didn't retweet that.
Leaving the EU is gonna be like eating a bucket of shite. Unfortnately, the alternative, staying in, will be like eating a cauldron of shite, every year, from here to the End of Time.
The EU will never reform. As its stiff, sniffy, superior, legalistic negotiations with the UK eloquently reveal, it believes it is a new Carolingian, even Roman Empire in the making, and all those who demur must be crushed like the Parthians.
Fuck 'em.
Will East EU countries just meekly agree to any no FoM deal. After all, they don't sell BMWs and Prosecco to the UK. What's in it for them ?0 -
Yeah but they won't be part of a pro-EU plot to bring her down. They will do it themselves or not at all. They have the numbers alone.TheScreamingEagles said:
She's pissed them off too.MaxPB said:
Surely if the pro-EU mob want to bring her down the ERG will withdraw their letters meaning the numbers won't be there.TheScreamingEagles said:
Reliable sources say that there are some where between 38-42 letters sitting in Mr Brady's inbox, only takes a 10 hardcore remainers to send in letters to trigger a VONC.Philip_Thompson said:
Who from?TheScreamingEagles said:I think Sir Graham Brady's postie will be very busy in the next few days.
The hardcore Remainers don't seem to have enough to trigger a ballot and will surely fear a true-believer Brexiteer taking over.
The hardcore Brexiteers don't seem to be willing to push too hard either for fear of losing more time or control of the situation.0 -
I believe that the seat would have been Tory on existing boundaries in 1987. However, I am partly pulling your leg here. I am blessed with a very good memory , and one of the effects of that is that events which other people perceive as distant I view as 'just a few years ago'. To me even the 1964 election when Harold Wilson ousted Alec Douglas - Home from Downing Street does not feel THAT long ago - even though I was just 10 at the time!ydoethur said:
Justin, 26 years ago there was a bloody great coal mine outside my house. There is not one here now (or at least, if there is it's really well hidden).justin124 said:
No real boundary changes! On the other hand, there has been demographic change. Nevertheless 1992 is not such a long time ago.ydoethur said:
Good grief, Justin, you of all people taking no account of boundary changes? I'm shocked. Shocked, I tell you!!justin124 said:
Though it was a Tory seat until 1992!ydoethur said:
I did think of putting 'Theuniondivvie said:
I think you underestimate the nature of Jezza's limpet like qualities.ydoethur said:
Anything other than a VERY easy Labour hold would probably convince even Corbyn it's time to go.the LimpetJeremy Corbyn.'
But I think a loss in Lewisham on top of the ongoing Brexit mess and his failure to make the slightest headway in the polls would probably lead his supporters to conclude he's not the Jezziah, he's a very naughty boy.
I should stress however that I will be beyond astonished if Labour get below 50% of the vote.
Without wishing to make you feel old, 26 years ago I was at primary school. 31 years ago I hadn't even started primary school.
It's a VERY long time since the Conservatives held this seat (and I think you're underplaying the boundary changes although it's worth noting that even before they kicked in Labour were topping 50%). Second place would be a reasonable result. Third would be poor. A win would be the equivalent of Jean Claude Juncker having a lucid moment.0 -
Brexit is fucking bonkers.0
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Just watched Robert's video on the old thread - I really am naiive, I had assumed even such a thing as a productivity calculation would be more complex than how they apparently really do calculate it.0
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Would they want to replace May (EUphile) with Javid (Sceptic)? Sounds like a real shot in the dark for the ultras.ydoethur said:
Hammond doesn't appear to want the job. Realistically at this moment that leaves Javid.GIN1138 said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Who thenTheScreamingEagles said:
It won't be Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the rebels want Boris do theyTheScreamingEagles said:I think Sir Graham Brady's postie will be very busy in the next few days.
That's a good question actually.
In the event of a leadership contest just who would be the flag-bearer for Tory Remainers?
Hammond?0 -
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He is another one who faces both sides.ydoethur said:
Hammond doesn't appear to want the job. Realistically at this moment that leaves Javid.GIN1138 said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Who thenTheScreamingEagles said:
It won't be Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the rebels want Boris do theyTheScreamingEagles said:I think Sir Graham Brady's postie will be very busy in the next few days.
That's a good question actually.
In the event of a leadership contest just who would be the flag-bearer for Tory Remainers?
Hammond?0 -
Yorkshire are magic, Essex are tragic.
All done with half our team away playing with England.0 -
Wouldn't Javid be more like Theresa May II in that he was a very reluctant remainer in the referendum and he seems to accept Brexit must be delivered?ydoethur said:
Hammond doesn't appear to want the job. Realistically at this moment that leaves Javid.GIN1138 said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Who thenTheScreamingEagles said:
It won't be Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the rebels want Boris do theyTheScreamingEagles said:I think Sir Graham Brady's postie will be very busy in the next few days.
That's a good question actually.
In the event of a leadership contest just who would be the flag-bearer for Tory Remainers?
Hammond?0 -
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And if it does not prove to be the end game because May wins the vote, then that tweet will have been a load of bollocks.Scott_P said:
May has apparent deceived and annoyed plenty of MPs, perhaps enough to cause a problem with the vote, but that apocalyptic summation seems overblown when it is far from certain she will lose it. And if she wins it it means that even though many might think she cannot be trusted, they are still prepared to keep this ball rolling for awhile yet.
0 -
He's also in the past been accused of lacking charisma I think, so the comparison is even more apt.GIN1138 said:
Wouldn't Javid be more like Theresa May II in that he was a very reluctant remainer in the referendum and he seems to accept Brexit must be delivered?ydoethur said:
Hammond doesn't appear to want the job. Realistically at this moment that leaves Javid.GIN1138 said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Who thenTheScreamingEagles said:
It won't be Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the rebels want Boris do theyTheScreamingEagles said:I think Sir Graham Brady's postie will be very busy in the next few days.
That's a good question actually.
In the event of a leadership contest just who would be the flag-bearer for Tory Remainers?
Hammond?0 -
Defencesurby said:
They could also veto any FTA with the UK too. After all, 27 countries have to agree.SeanT said:
lolCarlottaVance said:
Amazed Scott P didn't retweet that.
Leaving the EU is gonna be like eating a bucket of shite. Unfortnately, the alternative, staying in, will be like eating a cauldron of shite, every year, from here to the End of Time.
The EU will never reform. As its stiff, sniffy, superior, legalistic negotiations with the UK eloquently reveal, it believes it is a new Carolingian, even Roman Empire in the making, and all those who demur must be crushed like the Parthians.
Fuck 'em.
Will East EU countries just meekly agree to any no FoM deal. After all, they don't sell BMWs and Prosecco to the UK. What's in it for them ?0 -
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Not brushing up on Russian verbs.surby said:
They could also veto any FTA with the UK too. After all, 27 countries have to agree.SeanT said:
lolCarlottaVance said:
Amazed Scott P didn't retweet that.
Leaving the EU is gonna be like eating a bucket of shite. Unfortnately, the alternative, staying in, will be like eating a cauldron of shite, every year, from here to the End of Time.
The EU will never reform. As its stiff, sniffy, superior, legalistic negotiations with the UK eloquently reveal, it believes it is a new Carolingian, even Roman Empire in the making, and all those who demur must be crushed like the Parthians.
Fuck 'em.
Will East EU countries just meekly agree to any no FoM deal. After all, they don't sell BMWs and Prosecco to the UK. What's in it for them ?
0 -
Just look at Japan. That is what happens if there is no immigration in a country with rapid change in demography. The US on the other hand always managed to reinvigorate themselves with new immigration until NOW.LordOfReason said:
My view is Merkel didn’t invite them in out of the kindness of her heart, it was cold and calculating based on Germany’s horrendous demographic time bomb. She invited them in to make up the short fall, to exploit them, in crappy jobs and wage poverty.Alanbrooke said:@Philip Thompson
BBCs take on it
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44481447
who goes first May or Merkel ?
The voters of Germany and Britain are largely pig ignorant of the demographic time bomb governments are wrestling with, voters just think the country’s full and don’t like the way immigration is changing it, the voters don’t realise how embarrassing and futile this little period of demanding politicians sort out immigration will eventually look.
In future decades Britain today will be used as a text book example. There currently isn’t an immigration policy to satisfy voters, merely the promise of one. The voters will not get one, because no brexit or hard brexit the British government will never have the power to introduce it. To some degree never in history did it have that power, and in 21st century globalised economy it now never can have. Whatever little control sovereign governments did have over immigration went the way of the Dodo when container ships, internet and demographic time bombs came along.
Germany will soon have another boom like in the 60s when millions of Turks came in. In 10 years time, you will have Syrians playing for Germany like Mesut Ozil, Emre Can etc.0 -
The plausible scenario is May wins the vote, just, which means the government deal is the final say. Nobody can change it, ever.kle4 said:And if it does not prove to be the end game because May wins the vote, then that tweet will have been a load of bollocks.
May has apparent deceived and annoyed plenty of MPs, perhaps enough to cause a problem with the vote, but that apocalyptic summation seems overblown when it is far from certain she will lose it. And if she wins it it means that even though many might think she cannot be trusted, they are still prepared to keep this ball rolling for awhile yet.
So the Brexiteers depose May because they don't trust her not to cave to the EU, in the hope of installing BoZo0 -
Yeah, do you really think that British exports purchased by European customers are going to magically roll over to non-European customers? I would like to see you sell Dutch books in China or German books in India!SeanT said:williamglenn said:
I think many of us are now prepared for No Deal. It will fuck everything up for a year or two, and London property owners (like me) will take a major hit, but we are the British, we have been through far, far worse.
And in the end, total freedom from the EU might well be a huge economic boost. Who knows?
Either way we shall be free. If it is No Deal. So be it.
I have never understood why Derivative trading in London for German, French or Italian customers will be magically changed to countries that might not have developed to the point where they need high ended Financial services for instance.
I just think Brexit is a process of self harm economically and downturns are NEVER easy for those who are afflicted by the fall out.
I doubt property will take much of a hit by the way. The Bank of England will just relax monetary policy to compensate, if Sterling falls more outside buyers will invest in property at the right price. If interest rates are lower it will pull in more buyers. If salaries fall it might have a negative affect but i doubt that is going to happen.0 -
Well all those months she spent saying NO GENERAL ELECTION only to change her mind while walking up Snowdonia should probably have been a clue...Scott_P said:
0 -
Stupid question. The booze is always on expenses.ydoethur said:
SeanT doesn't say if the £100 ph includes the necessary booze. Would this form part of negotiations? And if so will he do it for less if vintage claret is involved and demand more if it's only a few bottles of Bud?kle4 said:
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/1007334593765302272SeanT said:
It doesn't seem that bad an idea, frankly.0 -
Oh shite ! I forgot about the 200 British soldiers !!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Defencesurby said:
They could also veto any FTA with the UK too. After all, 27 countries have to agree.SeanT said:
lolCarlottaVance said:
Amazed Scott P didn't retweet that.
Leaving the EU is gonna be like eating a bucket of shite. Unfortnately, the alternative, staying in, will be like eating a cauldron of shite, every year, from here to the End of Time.
The EU will never reform. As its stiff, sniffy, superior, legalistic negotiations with the UK eloquently reveal, it believes it is a new Carolingian, even Roman Empire in the making, and all those who demur must be crushed like the Parthians.
Fuck 'em.
Will East EU countries just meekly agree to any no FoM deal. After all, they don't sell BMWs and Prosecco to the UK. What's in it for them ?0 -
I'm fully expecting to lose my £100 bet on the LDs tonight. (The odds were 100 to 1).0
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Tony Blair repeatedly proved from 1994 onwards that anyone who took his word on any issue must be either singularly credulous or plain daft. Didn't stop him winning three elections and spending 13 years as party leader.Scott_P said:
(I don't think May's going to do that, incidentally!)
Heck, Lloyd George twice deliberately misled Parliament and was guilty of insider trading and selling peerages for personal financial gain, but he still stayed as PM for 6 years and a key political figure for another 13.0 -
She is a Machiavellian liar who actually doesn't believe in anything except her position. She schemed about it for years. Cameron was correct about one thing. His description of her : submarine !GIN1138 said:
Well all those months she spent saying NO GENERAL ELECTION only to change her mind while walking up Snowdonia should probably have been a clue...Scott_P said:0 -
Do you think all Europeans are going to stop buying British goods after a no deal Brexit?The_Taxman said:
Yeah, do you really think that British exports purchased by European customers are going to magically roll over to non-European customers? I would like to see you sell Dutch books in China or German books in India!SeanT said:williamglenn said:
I think many of us are now prepared for No Deal. It will fuck everything up for a year or two, and London property owners (like me) will take a major hit, but we are the British, we have been through far, far worse.
And in the end, total freedom from the EU might well be a huge economic boost. Who knows?
Either way we shall be free. If it is No Deal. So be it.
I have never understood why Derivative trading in London for German, French or Italian customers will be magically changed to countries that might not have developed to the point where they need high ended Financial services for instance.
I just think Brexit is a process of self harm economically and downturns are NEVER easy for those who are afflicted by the fall out.
I doubt property will take much of a hit by the way. The Bank of England will just relax monetary policy to compensate, if Sterling falls more outside buyers will invest in property at the right price. If interest rates are lower it will pull in more buyers. If salaries fall it might have a negative affect but i doubt that is going to happen.0 -
YG 42/39
Pretty sure last one was an outlier0 -
Ken Clarke coined the expression 'bloody difficult woman'surby said:
She is a Machiavellian liar who actually doesn't believe in anything except her position. She schemed about it for years. Cameron was correct about one thing. His description of her : submarine !GIN1138 said:
Well all those months she spent saying NO GENERAL ELECTION only to change her mind while walking up Snowdonia should probably have been a clue...Scott_P said:0 -
Tomorrows papers could be fun0
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@alexmassie: ‘Borrowing’ and ‘tax’ are doing the heavy lifting here. https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/10073602013836451840
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I don't know if it will be a disaster, but mass migration from MENA does not generally consist of libertarian entrepreneurs and techies.SeanT said:
The Syrians who made it to Germany are virtually unemployable. It wasn't a migration of polite doctors. It was largely aggressive and uneducated young men and, as a result, German rape stats have gone of the dial.surby said:
Just look at Japan. That is what happens if there is no immigration in a country with rapid change in demography. The US on the other hand always managed to reinvigorate themselves with new immigration until NOW.LordOfReason said:
My view t the way of the Dodo when container ships, internet and demographic time bombs came along.Alanbrooke said:@Philip Thompson
BBCs take on it
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44481447
who goes first May or Merkel ?
Germany will soon have another boom like in the 60s when millions of Turks came in. In 10 years time, you will have Syrians playing for Germany like Mesut Ozil, Emre Can etc.
And no wonder it. Look at the stats for Pakistani grooming rape gangs of underage British white girls. See the outcome of the Oxford Trial today. I do not believe there was a majority of Pakistani men in Britain who were unaware this was happening, 1990-2010. Indeed I suspect most of the Pakistani community were aware this was happening, and they tolerated it (perhaps with "unhappy distaste" because felt it at least protected their own daughters).
Germany has wished this disaster upon itself. I predict Madam Merkel will be loathed in Germany as Blair as loathed in the UK (for Iraq) within a decade.0 -
Quite a dilemma for the Lords on Monday.Scott_P said:
The plausible scenario is May wins the vote, just, which means the government deal is the final say. Nobody can change it, ever.kle4 said:And if it does not prove to be the end game because May wins the vote, then that tweet will have been a load of bollocks.
May has apparent deceived and annoyed plenty of MPs, perhaps enough to cause a problem with the vote, but that apocalyptic summation seems overblown when it is far from certain she will lose it. And if she wins it it means that even though many might think she cannot be trusted, they are still prepared to keep this ball rolling for awhile yet.
So the Brexiteers depose May because they don't trust her not to cave to the EU, in the hope of installing BoZo
Do they throw the Government amendment out and back Grieve's - at the risk of losing entirely?
Or take the Government's and accept something?
Given the stakes they must be tempted to take Grieve's to the vote in the Commons, and then ping the Government's in for a further round of ping-pong, if the Grieve one doesn't carry the Commons.0 -
bigjohnowls said:
YG 42/39
Pretty sure last one was an outlier
Probably. But outliers can be a sense of direction as well.
0 -
No. Equally BMW and Mercedes will also sell here. In fact, BMW has a better chance of selling here than Nissan Qashqai because the competition at that price range is far more intense.steve_garner said:
Do you think all Europeans are going to stop buying British goods after a no deal Brexit?The_Taxman said:
Yeah, do you really think that British exports purchased by European customers are going to magically roll over to non-European customers? I would like to see you sell Dutch books in China or German books in India!SeanT said:williamglenn said:
I think many of us are now prepared for No Deal. It will fuck everything up for a year or two, and London property owners (like me) will take a major hit, but we are the British, we have been through far, far worse.
And in the end, total freedom from the EU might well be a huge economic boost. Who knows?
Either way we shall be free. If it is No Deal. So be it.
I have never understood why Derivative trading in London for German, French or Italian customers will be magically changed to countries that might not have developed to the point where they need high ended Financial services for instance.
I just think Brexit is a process of self harm economically and downturns are NEVER easy for those who are afflicted by the fall out.
I doubt property will take much of a hit by the way. The Bank of England will just relax monetary policy to compensate, if Sterling falls more outside buyers will invest in property at the right price. If interest rates are lower it will pull in more buyers. If salaries fall it might have a negative affect but i doubt that is going to happen.0
This discussion has been closed.