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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs to outperform the Tories in Thursday’s by-election is

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  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Anazina said:

    Would the last Brexiteer to leave Britain please turn out the lights?
    Beyond the competence of Remainers?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    I'm about to leave work to pick up some shopping, and I will walk straight past Flight Club. I shall give you a report from the front line if there's anything of interest.

    I thought you said Fight Club, and was about to mention the first rule
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    This thread has already descended to a carbon copy of about 1000 previous threads.

    It's almost as if there's a single massive unresolved issue around and about.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    JICIPM I believe
    It was an anemic performance.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    HYUFD said:

    It was the British voters who voted for Brexit, the Tory leader at the time backed Remain
    murali is another one who thinks democracy is overrated.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,033

    Beyond the competence of Remainers?
    Remainers would probably er, Remain.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    JICIPM I believe
    Just like 5 years of EICIPM?

    I guess some people never learn.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    HYUFD said:

    Soon there won't be a PBBrexiteer left in the UK, they will all be in California, Spain, the UAE, Australia, Singapore etc.

    Sunil may be the only PB Leave voter still sticking it out in Blighty!
    Oh I'll still be here. Having lived and worked far too many years outside of England I would never chose to leave. Besides I am thoroughly enjoying the politics.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    How many fronts do you want, Mrs Merkel?

    German industrialists increasingly suspect that Mr Trump is spoiling for a fight and intends to go ahead with 25pc tariffs on European car imports, exploiting a national security loophole under US trade law as he did over duties on steel and aluminium. The EU currently imposes 10pc duties on cars, mostly aimed at curbing a flood of imports from Asia.

    This could turn into a double drama for Germany if Brexit talks break down at the same time, leading to trade barriers with Britain. The German car industry might then face a sudden squeeze in its two biggest global markets.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/06/11/german-car-industry-fears-double-shock-trump-tariffs-brexit/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Jonathan said:

    It was an anemic performance.
    That if repeated at a GE would result in a Labour/ SNP Government.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    murali is another one who thinks democracy is overrated.
    murali also seems not to understand that 'respecting' a result is not the same as 'supporting' it......but perhaps mural is the sort of leftie who thinks there is only one 'correct' way to think...
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    That if repeated at a GE would result in a Labour/ SNP Government.
    There would be no Coalition - maybe a minority Labour Government receiving support from SNP/Plaid/Green and possibly LDs on an issue by issue basis.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255

    Only on here....

    In the real world, on the other hand, people have babies, buy houses, are gazumped, go on holiday, lose loved ones, watch movies......invite (must we really?) people to dinner drinks...
    Do they serve them pineapple on pizza? :)
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,033
    Ladbrokes, Lewisham Latest

    LibDems 1/2
    Tories 6/4

    The opposite of the figures in the header. The PoliticalBetting effect!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    justin124 said:

    There would be no Coalition - maybe a minority Labour Government receiving support from SNP/Plaid/Green and possibly LDs on an issue by issue basis.
    The forecast of 285 Labour and 41 SNP by Curtis would be enough.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    In the

    Telegraph
    Daily Mail
    Sun
    Daily Express


    Guardian:

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1006243143648358400
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741

    Do they serve them pineapple on pizza? :)
    Only to find out what type of person they really are...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,421

    How many fronts do you want, Mrs Merkel?

    German industrialists increasingly suspect that Mr Trump is spoiling for a fight and intends to go ahead with 25pc tariffs on European car imports, exploiting a national security loophole under US trade law as he did over duties on steel and aluminium. The EU currently imposes 10pc duties on cars, mostly aimed at curbing a flood of imports from Asia.

    This could turn into a double drama for Germany if Brexit talks break down at the same time, leading to trade barriers with Britain. The German car industry might then face a sudden squeeze in its two biggest global markets.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/06/11/german-car-industry-fears-double-shock-trump-tariffs-brexit/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

    It's not very good for us, either. Here's the latest data on car exports to the US by country (2017):

    Canada: US$43.8 billion (up 0.1% from 2013)
    Japan: $40.7 billion (up 4.9%)
    Mexico: $30.6 billion (up 49.4%)
    Germany: $20.8 billion (down -19.8%)
    South Korea: $16.1 billion (up 29.1%)
    United Kingdom: $8.8 billion (up 71%)
    Italy: $5.1 billion (up 221.1%)
    Sweden: $2.2 billion (up 203.3%)
    Slovakia: $2 billion (up 123.3%)
    China: $1.8 billion (up 1,759%)
    Hungary: $1.2 billion (up 202.7%)
    Finland: $1.2 billion (up 11,883%)
    South Africa: $1.1 billion (down -50.4%)
    Turkey: $911.8 million (up 666.5%)
    Spain: $816.9 million (up 4,572%)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    That if repeated at a GE would result in a Labour/ SNP Government.
    Entirely dependent on John Woodcock for its majority . Nice.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,421
    HYUFD said:

    Soon there won't be a PBBrexiteer left in the UK, they will all be in California, Spain, the UAE, Australia, Singapore etc.

    Sunil may be the only PB Leave voter still sticking it out in Blighty!
    Sunil's only here until he's exhausted the country's trains and trams. After that, he'll head somewhere else.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,531
    That's a great bet if you can get it.

    But its nothing like what's on offer at the moment.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    rcs1000 said:

    It's not very good for us, either. Here's the latest data on car exports to the US by country (2017):

    Canada: US$43.8 billion (up 0.1% from 2013)
    Japan: $40.7 billion (up 4.9%)
    Mexico: $30.6 billion (up 49.4%)
    Germany: $20.8 billion (down -19.8%)
    South Korea: $16.1 billion (up 29.1%)
    United Kingdom: $8.8 billion (up 71%)
    Italy: $5.1 billion (up 221.1%)
    Sweden: $2.2 billion (up 203.3%)
    Slovakia: $2 billion (up 123.3%)
    China: $1.8 billion (up 1,759%)
    Hungary: $1.2 billion (up 202.7%)
    Finland: $1.2 billion (up 11,883%)
    South Africa: $1.1 billion (down -50.4%)
    Turkey: $911.8 million (up 666.5%)
    Spain: $816.9 million (up 4,572%)
    Indeed, pretty awful for us as well. The worst part is that no one knows what Trump wants to keep the tariffs down. He hasn't made that clear at all.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    edited June 2018

    The forecast of 285 Labour and 41 SNP by Curtis would be enough.
    So Jez relies on Chuka to pass legislation.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    Freggles said:

    I thought you said Fight Club, and was about to mention the first rule
    They definitely have those up Hanley...and doesn’t cost £15/hr to partake.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    MaxPB said:

    So Jez relies on Chuka to pass legislation.
    The PLP is clearly a massive problem. IMO Mandatory Reselection is the only sensible way forward.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    The forecast of 285 Labour and 41 SNP by Curtis would be enough.
    But it would be a minority Labour Government.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,520

    There was a massive Poll at the start of May


    Labour won it comfortably
    I don't think they did.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited June 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    It's not very good for us, either. Here's the latest data on car exports to the US by country (2017):
    United Kingdom: $8.8 billion (up 71%)
    Quite a jump!

    And unlike many of those countries the US has a goods surplus with us - how brave is Trump feeling?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    Quite a jump!
    And a 25% tariff would destroy all of that progress. It's a poor idea for everyone.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,287

    Ladbrokes, Lewisham Latest

    LibDems 1/2
    Tories 6/4

    The opposite of the figures in the header. The PoliticalBetting effect!

    Personally, I think the value is on the Tories in second, so glad to see the shift.

    Tories are more likely to turnout, the rabble of feuding populists will fight over scraps, and in inner city seats Tories don't do Tactical Voting.

    I reckon: Lab 55%, Tories 21%, LD 17%, Others 7%.

    For Britain to beat UKIP at 5/2 as well.

    Last place: The Radical Party.

    Based on my own guesswork in the garden.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    The PLP is clearly a massive problem. IMO Mandatory Reselection is the only sensible way forward.
    So Jez relies on Chuka to pass legislation.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,531
    edited June 2018
    For Charles and all the other PBers who have been eagerly awaiting today's Tesco Strawberry score I have bad news.

    I haven't been.

    But do not totally despair for here is today's Sainsbury Strawberry score.

    Angus
    Fife
    Perthshire
    Yorkshire
    Staffordshire
    Norfolk

    Only a 6 compared to the 8-11 which Tesco have been managing as Sainsbury don't do the myriad range of quality and quantity which Tesco manage.

    But the addition of two new counties is very exciting.

    There is a definite east / west split developing with only Herefordshire and Somerset as suppliers from western Britain from the four Scottish and twelve English counties.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    MaxPB said:

    And a 25% tariff would destroy all of that progress. It's a poor idea for everyone.
    Its a terrible idea all round (though given what we export, I'm not sure its that price sensitive...)

    Does Trump want to start a trade war with a country he has a goods surplus with?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Absolutely massive American Supreme Court decision with regards to voter registration.

    To follow on from the laughably crazy Shelby County decision this latest one will see a mass purge of voter rolls across the country.

    Will have big effect on the mid terms. I hadn't even been considering it as I thought it would be done and dusted.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,859
    MaxPB said:

    Indeed, pretty awful for us as well. The worst part is that no one knows what Trump wants to keep the tariffs down. He hasn't made that clear at all.
    He wants bilateral deals in which every country pays 'tribute' to the US to show that we all know our place.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    For Charles and all the other PBers who have been eagerly awaiting today's Tesco Strawberry score I have bad news.

    I haven't been.

    But do not totally despair here is today's Sainsbury Strawberry score.

    Angus
    Fife
    Perthshire
    Yorkshire
    Staffordshire
    Norfolk

    Only a 6 compared to the 8-11 which Tesco have been managing as Sainsbury don't do the myriad range of quality and quantity which Tesco manage.

    But the addition of two new counties is very exciting.

    There is a definite east / west split developing with only Herefordshire and Somerset as suppliers from western Britain from the four Scottish and twelve English counties.

    For Charles and all the other PBers who have been eagerly awaiting today's Tesco Strawberry score I have bad news.

    I haven't been.

    But do not totally despair here is today's Sainsbury Strawberry score.

    Angus
    Fife
    Perthshire
    Yorkshire
    Staffordshire
    Norfolk

    Only a 6 compared to the 8-11 which Tesco have been managing as Sainsbury don't do the myriad range of quality and quantity which Tesco manage.

    But the addition of two new counties is very exciting.

    There is a definite east / west split developing with only Herefordshire and Somerset as suppliers from western Britain from the four Scottish and twelve English counties.

    These updates are one of the charming things about PB. Please continue :smile:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    Anazina said:

    Carlotta is referring to Shakespeare’s original wording, which is presumed to be a lavatorial joke by the Bard.
    If so, she might have made the effort to get the quote right.

    Outside of that context, petard is the correct usage.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Alistair said:

    Absolutely massive American Supreme Court decision with regards to voter registration.

    To follow on from the laughably crazy Shelby County decision this latest one will see a mass purge of voter rolls across the country.

    Will have big effect on the mid terms. I hadn't even been considering it as I thought it would be done and dusted.

    Seems like a mental decision, "use it or lose it" is complete bullshit. I'm sure GOP state legislatures are rushing through the statutes right now.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,531
    Some pretty poor economic data today.

    I did repeatedly point out to the ra-ra boys that the rise in Sterling during the winter (together with the slowdown in the EuroZone) was not good news.

    I suppose a silver lining is that it has shown that the BoE didn't have a clue as to the underlying strength of the economy with its eagerness to raise interest rates.

    With the employment data tomorrow one thing I'll be looking out for is to see if the retail apocalypse has had an impact on the number of redunancies.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Question for PB brains’ trust:

    For the debates tomorrow and on Wednesday, will the amendments be voted en bloc at the very end? Or will each be voted on after it has been debated, so being spread across the 2 days?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Nigelb said:

    If so, she might have made the effort to get the quote right.
    I did. TR got it wrong.

    My other pet hate is 'Methinks the lady doth protest too much'....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724
    RoyalBlue said:

    Question for PB brains’ trust:

    For the debates tomorrow and on Wednesday, will the amendments be voted en bloc at the very end? Or will each be voted on after it has been debated, so being spread across the 2 days?

    Did we miss Arron Banks’ select committee appearance? When is/was that?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,531

    For Charles and all the other PBers who have been eagerly awaiting today's Tesco Strawberry score I have bad news.

    I haven't been.

    But do not totally despair here is today's Sainsbury Strawberry score.

    Angus
    Fife
    Perthshire
    Yorkshire
    Staffordshire
    Norfolk

    Only a 6 compared to the 8-11 which Tesco have been managing as Sainsbury don't do the myriad range of quality and quantity which Tesco manage.

    But the addition of two new counties is very exciting.

    There is a definite east / west split developing with only Herefordshire and Somerset as suppliers from western Britain from the four Scottish and twelve English counties.

    These updates are one of the charming things about PB. Please continue :smile:

    PB is great because of the wide range of oddball knowledge and interests represented here.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399

    For Charles and all the other PBers who have been eagerly awaiting today's Tesco Strawberry score I have bad news.

    I haven't been.

    But do not totally despair here is today's Sainsbury Strawberry score.

    Angus
    Fife
    Perthshire
    Yorkshire
    Staffordshire
    Norfolk

    Only a 6 compared to the 8-11 which Tesco have been managing as Sainsbury don't do the myriad range of quality and quantity which Tesco manage.

    But the addition of two new counties is very exciting.

    There is a definite east / west split developing with only Herefordshire and Somerset as suppliers from western Britain from the four Scottish and twelve English counties.

    I have a perhaps-stupid question: how accurate is the labelling? ISTR there was a little issue recently with labelling of products; with imaginary farms designed to lure customers. By law, how accurate do such labels have to be? For example, if they're labelled 'Fife' and they were actually grown in Norfolk?

    (I'm not doubting your anecdata.)

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/tesco-and-other-supermarkets-using-fake-farm-brands-spark-complaint-from-nfu-a7144551.html
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Nigelb said:

    If so, she might have made the effort to get the quote right.

    Outside of that context, petard is the correct usage.
    Indeed.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    Not quite true to say David Davis left Brussels empty handed. He negotiated a croissant out of Barnier.

    https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1006185942179295233
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Alistair said:

    Absolutely massive American Supreme Court decision with regards to voter registration.

    To follow on from the laughably crazy Shelby County decision this latest one will see a mass purge of voter rolls across the country.

    Will have big effect on the mid terms. I hadn't even been considering it as I thought it would be done and dusted.

    Really glad I don’t live in the States. Can’t even begin to imagine what many marginalised groups must be feeling under Trump’s presidency there.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Sean_F said:

    I don't think they did.
    Why?

    More than 54% of all the votes cast

    More Councillors than all other Parties combined.

    A forecast that Labour become biggest Party at a GE


    Whats not to like
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782

    I did. TR got it wrong.

    My other pet hate is 'Methinks the lady doth protest too much'....
    The quote is “hoist with his own petar’”, so no ... if it's even possible to be pedantic about Shakespearean spelling, given the considerable variation between texts.
    TR wasn’t quoting - he was using a perfectly acceptable common usage, with the correct spelling of the word petard.

    If you’re going to be a pedant, try harder.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,520
    Such a transfer of sovereignty cannot be compatible with the GFA.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,531
    MaxPB said:

    Seems like a mental decision, "use it or lose it" is complete bullshit. I'm sure GOP state legislatures are rushing through the statutes right now.
    That sounds like a very dubious decision to me.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Nigelb said:

    The quote is “hoist with his own petar’”, so no ... if it's even possible to be pedantic about Shakespearean spelling, given the considerable variation between texts.
    TR wasn’t quoting - he was using a perfectly acceptable common usage, with the correct spelling of the word petard.

    If you’re going to be a pedant, try harder.

    Who is TR? I made the original post.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    Pretty indefensible SC decision might well have real consequences for the odds on close races in the US:
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/06/husted-v-randolph-institute-is-a-victory-for-trumps-department-of-justice.html
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    MaxPB said:

    Indeed, pretty awful for us as well. The worst part is that no one knows what Trump wants to keep the tariffs down. He hasn't made that clear at all.
    Seven men and women every year as a tithe. To be sacrificed to his Pentagon... sorry I meant Labyrinth.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    Anazina said:

    Who is TR? I made the original post.
    No idea - also Carlotta’s coinage.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    Alistair said:

    Absolutely massive American Supreme Court decision with regards to voter registration.

    To follow on from the laughably crazy Shelby County decision this latest one will see a mass purge of voter rolls across the country.

    Will have big effect on the mid terms. I hadn't even been considering it as I thought it would be done and dusted.

    I don't think the decision will have much impact at all. It removes from the rolls those who have failed to vote in two Federal elections and not responded to a confirmation notice or updated their registration status. If they reregister problem solved and if they fail to vote normally the odds are they won't vote in the midterms anyway
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Nigelb said:

    No idea - also Carlotta’s coinage.

    Curious.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    edited June 2018
    Alistair said:
    Looks like the suburban middle class ie whites with college degrees and Democratic women, namely the Hillary coalition, are most motivated to vote in the midterms and get revenge for November 2016.

    Minorities and Trump voters ie whites without college degrees less bothered and Trump voters in particular less likely to turnout for establishment GOP candidates than they were for Trump.
  • PurplePurple Posts: 150
    Arron Banks says he briefed the CIA in London about his meetings with the Russian ambassador. Did he tell any other country or is that the end of the list?

    Perhaps he reported back to the Russian ambassador on his meeting with the CIA? His business activities make clear that he knows the value of information.

    Meanwhile the overgrown undergraduate Cummings is already kooking out, to judge from his blog post today. Will he quote Sun Tzu to the Serjeant at Arms?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    I don't think the decision will have much impact at all. It removes from the rolls those who have failed to vote in two Federal elections and not responded to a confirmation notice or updated their registration status. If they reregister problem solved and if they fail to vote normally the odds are they won't vote in the midterms anyway
    This is a flag to other states to keep pushing their voter purge nonsense.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    I did. TR got it wrong.

    My other pet hate is 'Methinks the lady doth protest too much'....
    And people who think "Wherefore art thou" means where are you, rather than why are you.

    Just had some very good Herefordshire strawberries from Tescos.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724
    edited June 2018
    Sean_F said:

    Such a transfer of sovereignty cannot be compatible with the GFA.
    One interesting idea was to have the whole of the UK join the EEA and then the British government pass a statute that only NI was “activated” or subject to its terms.

    Not without complications, obvs.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688

    NEW THREAD

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,531

    I have a perhaps-stupid question: how accurate is the labelling? ISTR there was a little issue recently with labelling of products; with imaginary farms designed to lure customers. By law, how accurate do such labels have to be? For example, if they're labelled 'Fife' and they were actually grown in Norfolk?

    (I'm not doubting your anecdata.)

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/tesco-and-other-supermarkets-using-fake-farm-brands-spark-complaint-from-nfu-a7144551.html
    A good point.

    I suspect that technology is so advanced now that the labels are pretty accurate but I'd expect a few mistakes. What the tolerance level allowed is I don't know.

    I think this was the marketing issue which caused problems over fake farm names:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35889282
  • PurplePurple Posts: 150
    TOPPING said:

    Did we miss Arron Banks’ select committee appearance? When is/was that?
    Tomorrow morning: Arron Banks and Andy Wigmore.

    "Focus of the session

    The Committee is expected to ask Mr Banks and Mr Wigmore about the relationship between Leave.EU and Cambridge Analytica, as well as the use of data by Leave.EU and other bodies, such as GoSkippy Insurance and Eldon Insurance.

    The Committee continues to investigate data sharing and misuse around Facebook, Cambridge Analytica and other connected companies, as part of its wider inquiry into Fake News.
    "
This discussion has been closed.