Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs to outperform the Tories in Thursday’s by-election is
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs to outperform the Tories in Thursday’s by-election is the best bet out there at the moment
Yesterday on Betfair someone wagered a few pounds on the Tories at 1000/1 to win Thursday’s Lewisham East by-election. This means that if he bet £10 he’ll lose £10 for all the signs are that the blue team is just running a token campaign in the seat where LAB got 67.9% of the vote in June last year. To make things harder the CON candidate is a leaver in a seat that was 65% remain.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Edited extra bit: upon discovering I backed Con to win at 2.62, I somewhat wimpishly backed LD at 2.55 (with boost). So, small profit whatever happens.
Edited extra bit: trying to decide whether to back Lab 50-60% at 3. On 60-70% at 3.5 and 70% plus at 17.
Nothing is agreed including the 40 billion until everything is agreed
WTO is becoming more likely day by day
No, absolutely not. Time to walk away. Any East/West border like he's proposing is as much a violation of the Good Friday Agreement as a North/South one. If Barnier won't agree to a deal its time to walk and once the hard border is erected along the NI border we can start negotiations as equals.
"WTO is becoming more likely day by day"
Unless there is some amazing alternative negotiation going on behind the scenes, then I agree with you.
To ask the Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs if he will make a statement on the reports of an imminent Saudi/UAE- led coalition attack on Hudaydah port, Yemen and the humanitarian impact.
Hasn't he got some washing machines to sell or something?
Or perhaps I should re-tune my tinfoil hat...
We have the option of the UK including NI signing a trade deal with the EU.
The latter isn't an option as they think they can get NI to stay in the EU, if they can't because we go WTO then that changes rapidly.
So you're saying that the EU wants to confiscate NI as a price for us leaving them.
But the time has come for us to take a step back and to get on with the practicalities of dealing with a no deal outcome. It really has.
Mr. T, we're not legally obliged to £39bn. Someone here suggested debt liabilities totalled £20bn. Others that we owe nothing.
This whole dispute over the backstop seems to be (deliberately?) muddying the waters.
Just get on discussing the deal, or if not go WTO. And if the EU won't start discussing the deal then WTO it is by default.
Jesus, you really do see some utter shite on this forum now and then.
You don't reach a settlement by agreeing with your own side, you get a settlement by the opposing sides agreeing. The EU needs to negotiate with a Leaver.
The point remains that what we want to discuss and what will actually make a difference to the UK and the EU is trade and 18 months into the process we seem to be really struggling to get to it thanks to the EU stance. We need to be clear that we are keen to speak to the EU and get a deal with them but only if they talk about what actually matters.
It might just make house prices affordable for youngsters.
Sadly it’s always been my thought that the EU has no incentive to negotiate in good faith given the timings involved, they’re going to offer a vassal state deal at the last minute that we can either accept or crash out. Which is why no deal needs to be credible from our side, we need to be preparing for it yesterday.
The one thing they can’t do is raise tarrifs on UK trade specifically, that go above what they would charge to other countries.
One has to assume (and hope) that there’s a bunch of adults actually negotiating Brexit somewhere, while leaving the politicians and journalists to mouth off at each other in the meantime.
(*Maybe not as a United Kingdom though, sadly, but as constituent parts with Scotland leading the way and England bringing up the rear tail between legs.)
Admission exposes Theresa May’s promise that 'nothing is agreed until everything is agreed' to be an empty one, government told
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-divorce-bill-uk-pay-eu-trade-deal-talks-david-davis-suella-braverman-a8364841.html?amp
http://uk.businessinsider.com/lib-dems-expect-strong-second-place-finish-in-lewisham-east-anti-brexit-message-may-and-corbyn-2018-6
Tories 8/13,
LibDems 6/5
The only advantage of having a leaver doing the negotiating is that it will force Leave to confront the reality of their self deception.
The Irish backstop will be part of the withdrawal deal, won't it?
Another way to look at this is to say that the Tory has 35% of the vote to themselves.
But then turnout matters a lot in by elections.
That's just the reality. Not to say it is a reason we shouldn't have voted Leave, just to say it is a very real issue that perhaps was not given sufficient airtime prior to the vote.
If you threw him into a barrel of boobs he’d come up sucking his own thumb.
Not much. It's just a dispute (about whether the money is due) between the UK and the EU.
It would be registered as a default against us.
But our credit rating would already be in the toilet if we went WTO.
Of course it would be more complicated than that. There would be a potential disruption of supply chains, there would be a loss of confidence, there might be some business transferred into the Single Market. My guess is that Sterling would take a bit of a beating offsetting and then some the loss of "free" access to the single market making our exports more competitive. But in Sterling terms the effect would be very modest.
Tories 4/6
LibDems 11/10
... the power of PoliticalBetting.
2. CU/SM whole UK membership
There can’t be a no deal for precisely the no hard border reason
It's not a default if it's not due.
"UK legally bound to pay £39bn Brexit 'divorce bill' before EU trade deal agreed, admits minister"
Brexit Brexit Brexit
Brexit Brexit Brexit
Para 49 "In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.
Para 50. In the absence of agreed solutions, as set out in the previous paragraph, the United
Kingdom will ensure that no new regulatory barriers develop between Northern
Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom,"
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/joint_report.pdf
This backstop means the whole UK remain in the CU and SM until an agreement on the Irish border is reached.
The UK has already offered the CU part of this with a hope or expectation that an agreement on the border will be reached by December 2021. They now need to follow it up with the Internal Market bit and job done.
Research shows that voters lost to the far-right will not return to the social democratic embrace. Having rejected their traditional party affiliation, these voters state they would rather switch to other conservative parties rather than go back. And in many ways they shouldn’t. The hardening of rhetoric on immigration by social democrats is little more than the left following the far right. Voters who state “immigration” as their primary concern will always choose the real thing rather over the forced imitation.
My dad is one of those voters whose primary concern is immigration and I know I couldn’t vote for the same political vision as him. We have two totally different sets of values and ways of seeing the world - I’ve found that many voters like this generally have a more socially conservative perspective.
Only if parliament approves that (crazy) deal - it's not formally agreed with the EU yet.
Neither side wants a hard border but for the UK government it is an impossibility. So we are in the bizarre situation whereby the EU can threaten something it doesn’t want and the UK cannot risk any negotiation which results in one so will acquiesce as described above.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIyixC9NsLI
It works on so many levels.
My prediction is that Trump will be aggressive towards Kim who will walk out and blame Trump for the collapse. Kim then has what he wants. He keeps his nuclear weapons. He has blunted Trump's threats. He has gained goodwill with South Korea, China and Russia who will ease sanctions. He has the prospect of a peace treaty with South Korea that excludes the US.
Trump will give his own account. Kim had the opportunity of a great future but he blew it. But it leaves Trump diminished.
Are you right and 'the minister' wrong?
Emma Dent Coad does it again on the Daily Politics. Asked if she wants to remain in the single market, she said:
“Absolutely, always have done, yes”
And asked if she will back the EEA amendment against the Labour whip?
“No, I won’t”
Read the article and understand the context of the quote.
Tories 8/11
LibDems Evens
I'm going to logout of Ladbrokes now, before crossover.
I took the advice you gave me the other day and never take you seriously.
If EU imports fell 10%, they would either be replaced by non-EU (no change to net import level), or they would be matched by a fall in consumption (which would magnify the GDP decline).
Agreement in Northern Ireland > Withdrawal Agreement > Obligation to pay €39bn.
It would be the ultimate resignation of control (remember that?) for us to commit to no hard border, which we have done, and then allow a foreign power to erect one.
The wreckers are in charge of the asylum today on PB.
It was for this reason I was very surprised that May managed to get the Cabinet to sign up to the December agreement. I said at the time that it was remarkable that Leavers in the Cabinet had signed up to this.
But leaving the EU ultimately means leaving the CU and the SM (it does not of course mean leaving a Free Trade area with the SM). There is far too much baggage in the SM including the 4 freedoms, in particular freedom of movement. May will not be able to sell that. If she tries her government will fall.