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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ‘Bluntly, older, mainly Leave, voters are dying—and younger, m
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ‘Bluntly, older, mainly Leave, voters are dying—and younger, mainly Remain, voters are joining the electorate.’
There’s some analysis by Peter Kellner on a second referendum.
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It goes back further than that.....and is based on the curious notion that as people get older they don't change their minds. Some don't. Some do, but frankly its bordering on fatuous.
Of course if voters had the same opinions at 20 as they do at 65 we wouldn't have had Tory governments for the majority of the last century. Most of the over 65s probably voted to stay in the Common market in 1975.
But don't forget that everyone who is alive is getting older and replacing the dead older people with new older people.
But what can be done? The women are perfectly free to get civil divorces and remarry in a civil ceremony. The religious law appears (I am not Jewish myself) to be clear though that they can't get a religious divorce and remarry religiously without their ex-husbands' consent. What is the state supposed to do? Intervene and overrule a religious doctrine? I think most people would be uncomfortable with that, even if they disagree with the doctrine.
Ultimately the people involved chose to be bound by their religious law and its courts. They could chose not to be but don't because their faith is more important to them.
Edited extra bit: further in the future, I meant.
Also, the removal of the MGU-H may disproportionately help Honda. That said, a good point I'd forgotten about.
No kidding. We get what we deserve.
I suggest, though I'm not an expert in these matters, that calling them traitors, saboteurs and enemies of the people is not the best of starts.
Similarly, Mercedes are giving Bottas a bit longer before they decide who to sign for next year....
The question is therefore really the wrong way around. We are leaving. At what point will those who want to be a part of the EU have a sufficient majority and political support to persuade us all to look at this again? I don't say it can never happen but it won't be quick. And by that time there will indeed be a different electorate who can make their own choice. I think it's called democracy.
Of course the EU would also have a say in this. I very much doubt that they would consider having the UK back on a narrow win for rejoining. No one would want to go through this again.
https://twitter.com/antoguerrera/status/1001116369151283202
The 2021 thinking is of a collaboration between a number of British engineering manufacturers to produce the core of an engine, that could be rebadged as appropriate for a number of independent teams. Red Bull will call theirs an Aston Martin, McLaren might put their own badge on it, Williams or Force India might call it a Prodrive or a Cosworth but they’ll all be basically the same.
I'd recommend Sean Trende's article, The God That Failed, to anyone who thinks that demographic change will bring them victory.
I am similarly not an expert, but I feel that calling leavers bigots, xenophobes and racists may also have slightly soured the relationship between the two camps.
Insults and jibes like xenophobe / uneducated / duped by a bus / nostalgic for white faces / carrot crunchers were and are directed at all 17.4 million Leave voters.
Mr. L, indeed. Fresh elections would provide said opportunity, though.
No other party was advocating spending less on this area and in the first budget after the election, taxes could be raised to pay for 'Increased health and social care needs'.
No need to mention dementia and no need to take people's homes off of them, after the election, put the costs on inheritance tax, stamp duties, income tax and VAT.
But, less laconically, we may well want to join what exists now but it may not exist then because the nature of the EU will change. Whether we want to join what exists then and whether they are minded to let us is a question that contains too many hypotheticals to answer with any confidence. It's not impossible but I really don't see it happening within 20 years.
You might be right that young remain voters might become pro Brexit in ten years time but I think I would bet on the opposite. I guess it will come down to whether the under 30's grow up blaming Brexit for all their problems in the same way as some people blamed all their problems on the EU. I'd be happy to place a sizeable bet on the UK having decided to rejoin the EU within 10 years but I'm not sure if such long-term bets exist!
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/feb/18/iceland-ban-male-circumcision-first-european-country
https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1001126240387059712
“Thirteen of 14 polls this year show slightly more people saying ‘wrong’ than ‘right’,” he said.
“This indicates a small but consistent net move away from Brexit.”
It could only be taken as indicating a net move away from Brexit if the polls before the referendum had proved capable of accurately predicting the result. Since the polls before the referendum were in fact also predicting a narrow win for Remain, consistently enough that the commentariat was basically taking that outcome for granted, they are in my book telling us that opinion is unchanged on Brexit, at least in terms of their capacity to measure it.
Person D will be vindicated.
If 1.3 million Leavers die every two years in 26 years there wont be any left.
Hartlepool will be a ghost town
https://twitter.com/FerdiGiugliano/status/1001106259196698624?s=20
In 1974, the Conservatives finished 3rd among voters aged 18-34. 43 years on, 60% of that cohort voted Conservative.
In 1975, 61% of 18-29 year olds supported Remain. 41years later, the same cohort voted heavily Leave.
In 1997, Labour led by 21% among voters aged 18-34. Last year, the two parties were level -pegging among the same cohort.
It's lazy thinking to assume that your opponents will just die off.
- There's a border poll in Northern Ireland
- People vote by 50-60% for reunification
- Unionists demand assurances regarding the future relationship between GB and Ireland
In this instance an application for EU accession from the UK's successor state Great Britain would make sense, and there would be a political imperative for the EU27 to look kindly upon it.
You can put me down as a sceptic. Sooner rather than later voters will conclude decisively that Leavers who disown the final Brexit settlement are either mad obsessives or clueless or both. If Leavers aren't prepared to defend the Brexit settlement, Britain will rejoin the EU in some form.
Until now. Apparently.
I make the average of seven 2018 indy polls as
Yes 47
No 53
Perhaps you have different polls.
Sort-of on topic, I was sent a link to this blog by Sir Ivan Rogers. I think it is, by a country mile, the best explanation of the Brexit background, and the best analysis of the negotiation issues, that I have seen:
https://policyscotland.gla.ac.uk/blog-sir-ivan-rogers-speech-text-in-full/
Apologies if it's already been discussed.
We do not have a separation. All we have is an increasingly pathetic display as the UK government seeks to reaffix itself in a new formation to the EU and to avoid the consequences of a rupture.
Edit, I am not sure where you are getting your polling from either: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence
That does leave open the possibility that the group who are now aged 61-77 may be less Europhilic than older or in due course younger generations. Has anyone checked this?
(My previous post should obviously have said *you think*...)
Where religious requirements add something i.e. allowing someone to have a marriage that is valid in both civil and religious law then I don't see an issue. But where religious law takes away from a person's rights under the law then I do have a big issue. Bluntly, I don't think we should permit religious law to take away someone's rights.
Someone on the previous thread argued that it would be ok provided someone had consented to this. I think this is naive. How freely was that consent given? Was there pressure? Etc etc. Usually there are very strong community and family pressures so that it is not at all clear that consent can be said to have been free. And the person concerned may not know or fully understand the rights that are being given up nor what the consequences are. The other issue I have is that often the rights of children are impacted when women give up their rights and children cannot freely consent. So I'm afraid that I'm of the view that if there is religious law which takes away from the rights granted by the law of the land, then it should not be allowed to do so. If people want to live in a theocracy they are free to move. They are free to follow their religion but where that religion conflicts with our law in ways which denies people their rights under the law, then it needs to give way.
I take it that you have different polling from that on Wiki?
There will be some who wished to Remain in the EU on the basis available in 2016 but who might not want to rejoin a changed EU at some point in the future. Equally, there might be some who might think that the government is making such a hash of leaving it might be best not to leave at all while there is still the chance of staying.
Either way, there has to be some attempt to heal the divide. But there is little sign of that. Sadly. It does not bode well.
One of the concerns I have is that if Britain rejoins because Brexit turns out to be a car crash then it will be doing so in the wrong frame of mind i.e. not because it positively wants to be in the EU for all sorts of wonderful reasons but because the alternative was worse. That would be a mirror of the reason why it joined in the 1970's - it was the sick man of Europe and thought joining the EU was the way to cure that. I think that approach in many ways led to the somewhat grudging strategy Britain has had which has, coupled with other factors, not helped make EU membership loved by enough.
So there needs, I think, to be something more than rejoining because there's no food on the shelves or whatever.
I suspect that may well take longer than just simply regretting Leaving.
Can I just thank everyone for the comments on my video.
Summarising the feedback:
- try and get the camera up, so it's in my eyeline
- avoid having the autocue (iPad) above the camera
- minimise my hand movements
- keep in natural
Did I miss anything?
For those who haven't seen my piece on the causes of trade deficits, it's here.
And remember all, please hit the 'Subscribe' button
He may have a credibility problem but he also won a referendum with a handsome majority.
IMO no-one in this sorry tale has much credibility. I really wish EU representatives had been allowed to campaign and give us their view rather than this debate - back I 2016 and now - being only amongst ourselves. We might have avoided a lot of grief, whatever the result turned out to be.
Delighted to be in the business I am in!!
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/
Of course given Remain was ahead in YouGov's final EU referendum poll and has a narrow lead again means little. I doubt we will ever again vote to be members of the full EU but it is possible in a decade or so someone like Chuka Umunna could be elected PM and take us back into the single market and customs union either as leader of the Labour Party or a new centrist 'En Marche' style party
There is polling evidence voters will reluctantly accept higher national insurance or income tax to pay for the NHS or social care but touch their housing wealth and their childrens' inheritance and there will be hell to pay!
https://www.citymetric.com/transport/continent-s-approach-rail-liberalisation-holds-lessons-britain-3727
So a private outfit is cherry-picking some of the lucrative routes (50 services per day) while the publicly owned national operator provides an integrated service for everyone.
And NTV only entice passengers away from airlines thanks to the publicly owned express passenger lines they operate on.
So I think Italy operates a rail system much closer to Labour's vision than to the current fragmented shambles so loved by the Conservatives.
P.S. Good to hear you had a good holiday!
Perhaps on that basis Unionists can break out of their paradoxical dimension of loudly declaiming that the Nats can't possibly win another indy referendum while saying that they should never be allowed one. Shot at an open goal surely?
Well the Romans did establish 4' 8.5" as standard gauge (or is that a myth?)