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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ‘Bluntly, older, mainly Leave, voters are dying—and younger, m

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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,774
    Yorkcity said:

    viewcode said:

    I've been saving mine up to use when somebody says something nice about Blair.

    He is a fine fellow with a pleasant singing voice and appropriate shoes... :)

    ...and a useful knack of winning elections!
    A good ten years in the UK 1997 to 2007.
    Yes agreed. Better than the last 10 that's for sure!
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,774
    edited May 2018


    No. Taxman is so wedded to the whole concept of the EU that, in his own words, he cannot see any upside from the decision to Leave. That is clearly the sign of a fanatic.

    What are the upsides? Have you read Ivan Rogers' lecture, if so what are your thoughts?
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Richard_Tyndall

    I am a realist.

    I really cannot understand how a worse deal is a better outcome for the UK as people like you advocate. The Brexiteers (Johnson, Fox & Davis) have so far managed to negotiate an inferior deal to the one we have at the moment. You might think second best is acceptable, most rational people do not.

    You are one of the fanatics on this board.

    I worry for your health as you seem to spend all day and night on here accusing everybody else of being deluded, fanatical or you become abusive. How do you hold down a job as a geologist or is that all a load of bullshit? You seem to spend way too much time on here.

    Actually I spend very little time on here. Probably less than half an hour a day, most of which is spent reading through comments and dipping in with my own when I see particularly deluded ones like yours.

    I can't spend more time on here than that because I am one of those who actually runs a business and earns money for this country, paying very large amounts of tax along the way - which given your alias I would assume you would approve of.

    As for who I am, I post under my own name and half a dozen people on here know me from other sources and can vouch for what I say. For all we know you have never done a days work in your life. Of course we can't tell because you hide behind an alias.
    You must be a very fast typist!


    It is not deluded to notice that Brexit is not working.

    The deal being negotiated by those who campaigned for Leave is worse than the UK currently experiences. Any rational person or country does not walk out of an agreement for something much worse. Taking back control is a great soundbite but in reality we will have NO control.

    I obviously make a good point as otherwise you would ignore my posts!

    I am not getting into discussing online personalities, I could not care less who you might be or not be. I don't think calling people deluded adds to the debate and you have clearly lost the argument when you reiterate comments about people being deluded without objectively stated why you think otherwise.

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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Come on everyone - let’s play nice before bedtime.

    Night all!
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,994

    Richard_Tyndall

    I am a realist.

    I really cannot understand how a worse deal is a better outcome for the UK as people like you advocate. The Brexiteers (Johnson, Fox & Davis) have so far managed to negotiate an inferior deal to the one we have at the moment. You might think second best is acceptable, most rational people do not.

    You are one of the fanatics on this board.

    I worry for your health as you seem to spend all day and night on here accusing everybody else of being deluded, fanatical or you become abusive. How do you hold down a job as a geologist or is that all a load of bullshit? You seem to spend way too much time on here.

    Actually I spend very little time on here. Probably less than half an hour a day, most of which is spent reading through comments and dipping in with my own when I see particularly deluded ones like yours.

    I can't spend more time on here than that because I am one of those who actually runs a business and earns money for this country, paying very large amounts of tax along the way - which given your alias I would assume you would approve of.

    As for who I am, I post under my own name and half a dozen people on here know me from other sources and can vouch for what I say. For all we know you have never done a days work in your life. Of course we can't tell because you hide behind an alias.
    You must be a very fast typist!


    It is not deluded to notice that Brexit is not working.

    The deal being negotiated by those who campaigned for Leave is worse than the UK currently experiences. Any rational person or country does not walk out of an agreement for something much worse. Taking back control is a great soundbite but in reality we will have NO control.

    I obviously make a good point as otherwise you would ignore my posts!

    I am not getting into discussing online personalities, I could not care less who you might be or not be. I don't think calling people deluded adds to the debate and you have clearly lost the argument when you reiterate comments about people being deluded without objectively stated why you think otherwise.

    I have made it clear why I think you are deluded. I have also made it clear on many occasions why I think Brexit is the right thing to do. If you can't be bothered to read the stuff then you have lost the right to comment on it. Again making judgements on people's views without even reading what they have written on the subject is the sign of a fanatic.

    And it was you who started commenting on who I was. I merely pointed out how dumb that is given I am known to plenty of people on here and post under my own name. I clearly have absolutely nothing to hide. I wonder if the same can be said about you.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,774
    edited May 2018
    RoyalBlue said:

    Come on everyone - let’s play nice before bedtime.

    Night all!

    Indeed it's all getting a bit tetchy tonight!

    I for one am more depressed than ever about Brexit and it's likely outcome after reading the Ivan Rogers lecture. It does seem like we have well and truly screwed-up as a nation. :disappointed:

    Time for me to hit the sack - maybe things will look brighter in the morning!
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    saddosaddo Posts: 534
    Anyone pro remain has to be pretty blind to not see what the EU is playing at in Italy.

    All the EU wants is the UK's money. Nothing else is of interest to them.
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited May 2018

    Richard_Tyndall

    I am a realist.

    I really cannot understand how a worse deal is a better outcome for the UK as people like you advocate. The Brexiteers (Johnson, Fox & Davis) have so far managed to negotiate an inferior deal to the one we have at the moment. You might think second best is acceptable, most rational people do not.

    You are one of the fanatics on this board.

    I worry for your health as you seem to spend all day and night on here accusing everybody else of being deluded, fanatical or you become abusive. How do you hold down a job as a geologist or is that all a load of bullshit? You seem to spend way too much time on here.

    Actually I spend very little time on here. Probably less than half an hour a day, most of which is spent reading through comments and dipping in with my own when I see particularly deluded ones like yours.

    I can't spend more time on here than that because I am one of those who actually runs a business and earns money for this country, paying very large amounts of tax along the way - which given your alias I would assume you would approve of.


    You must be a very fast typist!


    It is not deluded to notice that Brexit is not working.

    The deal being negotiated by those who campaigned for Leave is worse than the UK currently experiences. Any rational person or country does not walk out of an agreement for something much worse. Taking back control is a great soundbite but in reality we will have NO control.

    I obviously make a good point as otherwise you would ignore my posts!

    I am not getting into discussing online personalities, I could not care less who you might be or not be. I don't think calling people deluded adds to the debate and you have clearly lost the argument when you reiterate comments about people being deluded without objectively stated why you think otherwise.

    I have made it clear why I think you are deluded. I have also made it clear on many occasions why I think Brexit is the right thing to do. If you can't be bothered to read the stuff then you have lost the right to comment on it. Again making judgements on people's views without even reading what they have written on the subject is the sign of a fanatic.

    And it was you who started commenting on who I was. I merely pointed out how dumb that is given I am known to plenty of people on here and post under my own name. I clearly have absolutely nothing to hide. I wonder if the same can be said about you.
    Just for the record I am not some EU fanatic as you put it.

    I cannot be bothered debating something with somebody so lacking in self awareness as yourself.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,130
    saddo said:

    Anyone pro remain has to be pretty blind to not see what the EU is playing at in Italy.

    All the EU wants is the UK's money. Nothing else is of interest to them.

    Is the Italian President "the EU"?
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,994


    No. Taxman is so wedded to the whole concept of the EU that, in his own words, he cannot see any upside from the decision to Leave. That is clearly the sign of a fanatic.

    What are the upsides? Have you read Ivan Rogers' lecture, if so what are your thoughts?
    I have indeed. A number of times over the weekend.

    There is an immediate problem with it which is that Rogers starts from the position of attacking British policy over the last 25 years for wanting exceptionalism, for not wanting to be part of the programme of Ever Closer Union. His position seems to be that we are where we are now because we refused to sign up whole heartedly to the EU project that was being presented to us. This is all well and good if you are one of those civil servants who liked that project but it was, and always will be, unacceptable to a large majority of people in this country - even to a large number of Remainers.

    Indeed the person on here who Rogers most resembles is Williamglenn with his attitude that full scale assimilation is the only way forward whether we like it or not.

    Starting from a position of showing such a fundamental lack of understanding of the people he is meant to be serving does seem to colour all his subsequent comments.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131

    FF43 said:

    surby said:

    I think many Leavers would actually accept it. Many had no problem with the EU apart from FoM. If we have SM and CU [ or close enough ] but no FoM , the UK will have successfully cherry picked.

    My hypothesis is that you are right because, counterintuitively, most Leavers don't care about.sovereignty. Precisely, they care about symbols of sovereignty but not the application of it. That's a Remainer concern. Remainers will go along with pseudo sovereignty as long as we stay close to the EU, which is what they want anyway. If this hypothesis is correct, we may have the basis of acceptance. If it isn't we have a real problem I think.
    There's evidence that once you strip away the symbols, leavers actually do care about specific things that are best delivered by EU membership.

    Take the example: "I didn't want the EU to have any role in UK lawmaking". If you unpick that, it's clearly worse to be outside the EU and having to adopt laws you have no say in, than inside the EU making those laws. The problem is that Brexit turns the EU into the foreign power of the Brexiteer myths. As we get close to a deal, this reality will start to dawn.

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/999927254321913856
    So Remain voters think Leave voters mainly voted Leave to regain control over EU immigration and Leave voters confirm that
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,994



    Just for the record I am not some EU fanatic as you put it.

    I cannot be bothered debating something with somebody so lacking in self awareness as yourself.

    Don't worry. I am quite happy to continue to point out the idiocies of your comments. Oh and, just for the record, I don't believe you.
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited May 2018
    AndyJS said:

    Florence would be one of the hold-outs I think.
    Yes - the other in the far north is the autonomous German speaking province of South Tyrol which elects its own local people's party at each election. When you allow for that the map is even more incredible.

    It used to be part of Austria until WWI - after which Italy annexed it.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,060
    Surely it's a bit more complex than that, as Forza and Ln had an electoral pact last time around. There are therefore going to be places where the LN didn't stand last time and also places where their vote will fracture between them and Forza.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    kjh said:

    OT (ironically) I'm a bit thrown by the Off Topic and Spam flags. I appear to have put an 'Off Topic' flag against IanB2 twice recently (sorry). That is news to me, so presumably I have done it accidentally. I have 2 Off Topic flags against me, the 2nd of which is clearly very 'On Topic'. When I look at others that are flagged as spam or off topic in nearly all cases it clearly isn't correct. Is this just dodgy fingers or is there some custom or rule I am missing?

    Fat fingers, usually (especially when browsing on the phone)
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,130
    rcs1000 said:

    Surely it's a bit more complex than that...

    That's an appropriate response to everything from Matthew Goodwin.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,950

    FF43 said:

    surby said:

    I think many Leavers would actually accept it. Many had no problem with the EU apart from FoM. If we have SM and CU [ or close enough ] but no FoM , the UK will have successfully cherry picked.

    My hypothesis is that you are right because, counterintuitively, most Leavers don't care about.sovereignty. Precisely, they care about symbols of sovereignty but not the application of it. That's a Remainer concern. Remainers will go along with pseudo sovereignty as long as we stay close to the EU, which is what they want anyway. If this hypothesis is correct, we may have the basis of acceptance. If it isn't we have a real problem I think.
    There's evidence that once you strip away the symbols, leavers actually do care about specific things that are best delivered by EU membership.

    Take the example: "I didn't want the EU to have any role in UK lawmaking". If you unpick that, it's clearly worse to be outside the EU and having to adopt laws you have no say in, than inside the EU making those laws. The problem is that Brexit turns the EU into the foreign power of the Brexiteer myths. As we get close to a deal, this reality will start to dawn.

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/999927254321913856
    God, that's a shit barchart. It actually obscures the figures (I can't tell by looking what the figures are!) I've even looked at the original doc

    http://csi.nuff.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Carl_Reasons_Voting.pdf

    See if you can extract the data...
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Interesting point of view:

    "Paul Embery
    @PaulEmbery

    New forecasts from @ONS show the population of Barking and Dagenham will have surged by 46% in the first quarter of this century. Utterly unsustainable for an already-populous working-class borough, and the cause of the many local tensions I describe here.

    https://t.co/qLNZytRwz6 "

    https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/999945969784455168
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    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    AndyJS said:

    Interesting point of view:

    "Paul Embery
    @PaulEmbery

    New forecasts from @ONS show the population of Barking and Dagenham will have surged by 46% in the first quarter of this century. Utterly unsustainable for an already-populous working-class borough, and the cause of the many local tensions I describe here.

    https://t.co/qLNZytRwz6 "

    https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/999945969784455168

    Why "unsustainable" ?
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    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    rcs1000 said:

    Surely it's a bit more complex than that, as Forza and Ln had an electoral pact last time around. There are therefore going to be places where the LN didn't stand last time and also places where their vote will fracture between them and Forza.
    And some 5* supporters will not vote for a League candidate.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    The President of Italy may have acted wisely - or not - but not unconstitutionally:

    https://verfassungsblog.de/why-the-italian-presidents-decision-was-legitimate/
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,060
    But without knowing the impact of the dissolution of the FI/LN electoral pact, these numbers aren't actually that useful.
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    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138

    Salivating over the death of over 17 million of your fellow countrymen is a great way to build bridges.

    Mushroom clouds over the midlands.........
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    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    rcs1000 said:

    But without knowing the impact of the dissolution of the FI/LN electoral pact, these numbers aren't actually that useful.
    Also, 5* and Lega are not an alliance. Lega could win a few seats from 5*, yes but so could PD from the more evenly split vote. Plus , as you put it, some of the Forza unwinding could also cost Lega a few seats.
This discussion has been closed.