politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By-election punters should check the form before risking their

System · May 2018

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By-election punters should check the form before risking their cash

There have only been five Westminster by-elections which have been contested by the main parties since the Brexit referendum and the average party changes are shown in the chart above.

Read the full story here

Pulpstar · May 2018

Primus inter pares.

OldKingCole · May 2018

Second. Like the LD’s in Lewisham?

RobD · May 2018

How many by elections in each bin? Ah, two in remain seats, three in leave.

AndyJS · May 2018

OldKingCole said:
Second. Like the LD’s in Lewisham?

I wouldn't completely rule out a LD gain in Lewisham East. I don't think the Tories can win even though it was a Conservative seat in 1983 and 1987 and probably would have also been Tory in 1992 under the current boundaries.

Pulpstar · May 2018

RobD said:
How many by elections in each bin? Ah, two in remain seats, three in leave.

Just Witney and Richmond for the "remain" bin.

RobD · May 2018

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:
How many by elections in each bin? Ah, two in remain seats, three in leave.
Just Witney and Richmond for the "remain" bin.

A bit of an unwind of Dave's vote, and the Richmond debacle (I assume Zac is counted as a Tory for the purposes of this chart?)

CarlottaVance · May 2018

And he added: “Also, why does it have to be grey?”

Because it’s a taxpayer funded, military aircraft Mr Johnson.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/boris-johnson-claims-raf-voyager-transport-aircraft-often-unavailable-claims-he-probably-needs-own-plane/

williamglenn · May 2018

Take back control-tastic.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/23/britain-follow-eu-data-rules-full-brexitin-bid-save-trade-ties

Britain will mirror the European Union’s data protection rules in British law in full, UK negotiators have said in a bid to convince Brussels to preserve intelligence-sharing and the lucrative free flow of data after Brexit.

RobD · May 2018

CarlottaVance said:
And he added: “Also, why does it have to be grey?”

Because it’s a taxpayer funded, military aircraft Mr Johnson.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/boris-johnson-claims-raf-voyager-transport-aircraft-often-unavailable-claims-he-probably-needs-own-plane/

Taxpayer funded aircraft have to be grey? Not sure what point they are trying to make there...

CarlottaVance · May 2018

I agree with OGH, the Remainers Lib Dems have the best shot at beating Brexiteer Labour (who had helped their chances by picking a strong local candidate).

OldKingCole · May 2018

O/t but it concerns a LD. A Guardian report, https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/may/23/ says that an ex-mayor of ipswich has been denied citizenship after almost 40 years in uk.
She was given, and it’s in her passport, indefinite leave to remain when she married and moved here in 1979.

What on earth is the Home Office doing?

TheScreamingEagles · May 2018

Two Evertonians tweet.

https://twitter.com/ellbretland/status/998952675357184000?s=21
https://twitter.com/stephenbarrow/status/999160506022793216?s=21

FF43 · May 2018

OldKingCole said:
O/t but it concerns a LD. A Guardian report, https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/may/23/ says that an ex-mayor of ipswich has been denied citizenship after almost 40 years in uk.
She was given, and it’s in her passport, indefinite leave to remain when she married and moved here in 1979.

What on earth is the Home Office doing?

The Home Office is implementing Theresa May's explicit policy.

Sandpit · May 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:
Two Evertonians tweet.

ttps://twitter.com/ellbretland/status/998952675357184000?s=21
ttps://twitter.com/stephenbarrow/status/999160506022793216?s=21

Scott_P · May 2018

williamglenn said:
Take back control-tastic.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/23/britain-follow-eu-data-rules-full-brexitin-bid-save-trade-ties

Britain will mirror the European Union’s data protection rules in British law in full, UK negotiators have said in a bid to convince Brussels to preserve intelligence-sharing and the lucrative free flow of data after Brexit.

https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/999271616482865153

CarlottaVance · May 2018

OldKingCole said:
What on earth is the Home Office doing?

Sometimes its cock up, sometimes its plain daft, and sometimes we haven't had the full story.....

Morris_Dancer · May 2018

Good afternoon, everyone.

Gosh, how exciting. Mr. Pulpstar versus Mr. Smithson, who will be right? The latter favours the bookies' assessment, so greater glory for Mr. Pulpstar if he gets it right, I think.

Sunil_Prasannan · May 2018

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:
And he added: “Also, why does it have to be grey?”

Because it’s a taxpayer funded, military aircraft Mr Johnson.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/boris-johnson-claims-raf-voyager-transport-aircraft-often-unavailable-claims-he-probably-needs-own-plane/
Taxpayer funded aircraft have to be grey? Not sure what point they are trying to make there...

Air Force One isn't gray, I mean grey

rcs1000 · May 2018

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:
And he added: “Also, why does it have to be grey?”

Because it’s a taxpayer funded, military aircraft Mr Johnson.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/boris-johnson-claims-raf-voyager-transport-aircraft-often-unavailable-claims-he-probably-needs-own-plane/
Taxpayer funded aircraft have to be grey? Not sure what point they are trying to make there...

I think it's because it's principally a military refuelling aircraft. Apparently, the RAF doesn't like them painted in bright colours. Something to do with them being more visible to the enemy.

Sunil_Prasannan · May 2018

Pulpstar said:
Primus inter pares.

Nice thread earlier - and you get a mention in Mike's!!

RobD · May 2018

rcs1000 said:

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:
And he added: “Also, why does it have to be grey?”

Because it’s a taxpayer funded, military aircraft Mr Johnson.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/boris-johnson-claims-raf-voyager-transport-aircraft-often-unavailable-claims-he-probably-needs-own-plane/
Taxpayer funded aircraft have to be grey? Not sure what point they are trying to make there...
I think it's because it's principally a military refuelling aircraft. Apparently, the RAF doesn't like them painted in bright colours. Something to do with them being more visible to the enemy.

What's wrong with dazzle camouflage?

FF43 · May 2018

Pulpstar said:
Primus inter pares.

You might be pares but only Mr S. Eagles is primus, I believe.

Nigelb · May 2018

OldKingCole said:
O/t but it concerns a LD. A Guardian report, https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/may/23/ says that an ex-mayor of ipswich has been denied citizenship after almost 40 years in uk.
She was given, and it’s in her passport, indefinite leave to remain when she married and moved here in 1979.

What on earth is the Home Office doing?

What they've been doing for years now.
My wife was in almost exactly the same position, and ended up (successfully) applying for citizenship, as they kept making the rules for maintaining leave to remain more onerous.

tlg86 · May 2018

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Pulpstar said:
Primus inter pares.
Nice thread earlier - and you get a mention in Mike's!!

Very much clash of the titans!

OldKingCole · May 2018

CarlottaVance said:

OldKingCole said:
What on earth is the Home Office doing?
Sometimes its cock up, sometimes its plain daft, and sometimes we haven't had the full story.....

Agree, and full story is vital, but in this case the individual has friends in Parliament, which might ensure a full airing.

Nigelb · May 2018

rcs1000 said:

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:
And he added: “Also, why does it have to be grey?”

Because it’s a taxpayer funded, military aircraft Mr Johnson.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/boris-johnson-claims-raf-voyager-transport-aircraft-often-unavailable-claims-he-probably-needs-own-plane/
Taxpayer funded aircraft have to be grey? Not sure what point they are trying to make there...
I think it's because it's principally a military refuelling aircraft. Apparently, the RAF doesn't like them painted in bright colours. Something to do with them being more visible to the enemy.

Yes, not making a point is rather the point...

rcs1000 · May 2018

Excuse my ignorance, but when is the Lewisham East by-election? It seems to me that the longer the wait, the better the LibDem chances are.

Tissue_Price · May 2018

Witney & Richmond were prior to the General Election, though. Surely a new baseline has been established?

Sunil_Prasannan · May 2018

rcs1000 said:
Excuse my ignorance, but when is the Lewisham East by-election? It seems to me that the longer the wait, the better the LibDem chances are.

14th June, I think

CarlottaVance · May 2018

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/999276357552046080

ComRes:

HoL should be abolished:

Con: 29
Lab: 17
LD: 13
Green 23
UKIP: 49

Jeremy going after the Tory-Green-UKIP voter....

http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/22052018-We-The-People-Tables-MAY-2018.pdf

Sunil_Prasannan · May 2018

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/999276357552046080

House of Unelected Has-Beens

williamglenn · May 2018

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/999276357552046080

Proving once again that Brexiteers like JRM are Corbyn's useful idiots.

OldKingCole · May 2018

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/999276357552046080
House of Unelected Has-Beens

Is he trying to get the Mail onside? Doubt it will work, but stranger things have happened. Somewhere!

david_herdson · May 2018

Ah, the puppy-like levels of enthusiasm from Lib Dems for by-elections.

Lewisham East is very different from Witney or Richmond Park.

1a. It's Labour, not the Tories defending.
1b. It's the opposition, not the government defending.
1c. The defending candidate is strongly pro-Remain; the Lib Dems cannot easily harvest the Remain vote.
2. It's a snap poll; there's not been months of preparation time waiting for an anticipated resignation.
3. There is no particularly strong LD base in the constituency, unlike Witney and, especially, Richmond.

Add to which Pulpstar's comments, which is that there's a solid Tory vote and - overlapping - a solid Leave vote, which presumably the Tories can target without too much opposition.

Put simply, what is the Lib Dem message here? What are they for? 'Stop Labour' seems a fairly inadequate message when the local elections there indicate the public are quite happy with Labour as long as the candidate isn't a liability - which she isn't.

rural_voter · May 2018

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/999276357552046080

What an excellent reason not to vote Labour:
FPTP with the HoL (and majority of 100) = elected dictatorship
FPTP without the HoL = elected tyranny.

Does any country have FPTP without any further checks and balances?
New Zealand did but moved to PR.
Sweden and Denmark have no 2nd chamber but have the protection of PR and a written constitution.

AndyJS · May 2018

O/T

"Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php

rkrkrk · May 2018

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/999276357552046080

What is the Lib Dem position on the House of Lords these days?
Early positioning for some kind of coalition?

david_herdson · May 2018

Worth noting that Labour hasn't lost a by-election to the Lib Dems since 2006, and hasn't lost one in opposition since 1987 (which was before the Lib Dems even existed, as such).

The Tories, the SNP and Respect have all gained seats off Labour with Labour in opposition than the Lib Dems have.

Sunil_Prasannan · May 2018

rural_voter said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/999276357552046080
What an excellent reason not to vote Labour:
FPTP with the HoL (and majority of 100) = elected dictatorship
FPTP without the HoL = elected tyranny.

Does any country have FPTP without any further checks and balances?
New Zealand did but moved to PR.
Sweden and Denmark have no 2nd chamber but have the protection of PR and a written constitution.

House of Unelected Has-Beens. Even the US has an elected second chamber.

CarlottaVance · May 2018

CarlottaVance said:
twitter.com/politicshome/status/999276357552046080

ComRes:

HoL should be abolished:

Con: 29
Lab: 17
LD: 13
Green 23
UKIP: 49

Jeremy going after the Tory-Green-UKIP voter....

http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/22052018-We-The-People-Tables-MAY-2018.pdf

Great for the Youth Vote too!

HoL should be abolished:
18-24: 14
25-34: 14
35-44: 23
45-54: 30
55-64: 31
65+ :28

OldKingCole · May 2018

Sunil_Prasannan said:

rcs1000 said:
Excuse my ignorance, but when is the Lewisham East by-election? It seems to me that the longer the wait, the better the LibDem chances are.
14th June, I think

According to Wikipedia, ’tis so. There are 14 candidates listed, including, I’m glad, to see Howling Laud Hope for the Monster Raving Loonies.
How many has he fought now?

Slackbladder · May 2018

I would be very very nervous about 'ditching' the 2nd house. even if you complain about it. checks and balances are needed.

Scrapheap_as_was · May 2018

This could be the definition of hypocrisy...

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/999272894784995338

IanB2 · May 2018

It may well hang on how much of a by-election operation the Tories are able to mount. They will find it a lot more difficult to motivate people to travel to such an obviously hopeless contest, whereas LibDems are by their nature relatively immune to the prospect of hopelessness.

RobD · May 2018

rural_voter said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/999276357552046080
What an excellent reason not to vote Labour:
FPTP with the HoL (and majority of 100) = elected dictatorship
FPTP without the HoL = elected tyranny.

Does any country have FPTP without any further checks and balances?
New Zealand did but moved to PR.
Sweden and Denmark have no 2nd chamber but have the protection of PR and a written constitution.

To be fair to Corbyn, the article does say they want to replace it with an elected chamber.

Slackbladder · May 2018

Going back to tried and tested arguements, but there is a case to make for the seperation of executive and legistlative.

RobD · May 2018

AndyJS said:
O/T

"Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php

The middle classes are probably enjoying their tax cuts. That, and the fact he hasn't started WW3, probably work in his favour.

Sunil_Prasannan · May 2018

OldKingCole said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

rcs1000 said:
Excuse my ignorance, but when is the Lewisham East by-election? It seems to me that the longer the wait, the better the LibDem chances are.
14th June, I think
According to Wikipedia, ’tis so. There are 14 candidates listed, including, I’m glad, to see Howling Laud Hope for the Monster Raving Loonies.
How many has he fought now?

14 comes up a lot - this will be Hope's 14th by-election!

CarlottaVance · May 2018

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/999276357552046080
House of Unelected Has-Beens

79% agree!

Largely contains people with valuable life experience and skills: 21%
Contains too many political cronies and retired or failed politicians: 79%

Slackbladder · May 2018

RobD said:

rural_voter said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/999276357552046080
What an excellent reason not to vote Labour:
FPTP with the HoL (and majority of 100) = elected dictatorship
FPTP without the HoL = elected tyranny.

Does any country have FPTP without any further checks and balances?
New Zealand did but moved to PR.
Sweden and Denmark have no 2nd chamber but have the protection of PR and a written constitution.
To be fair to Corbyn, the article does say they want to replace it with an elected chamber.

As with anything in the HOL, the devil is in the detail. How it is constructed and what powers it has is hugely variable.

CarlottaVance · May 2018

RobD said:

rural_voter said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/999276357552046080
What an excellent reason not to vote Labour:
FPTP with the HoL (and majority of 100) = elected dictatorship
FPTP without the HoL = elected tyranny.

Does any country have FPTP without any further checks and balances?
New Zealand did but moved to PR.
Sweden and Denmark have no 2nd chamber but have the protection of PR and a written constitution.
To be fair to Corbyn, the article does say they want to replace it with an elected chamber.

Is that today's position? Or this afternoon's?

Sunil_Prasannan · May 2018

The House of Unelected Has-Beens is the world's only Upper Chamber with MORE members than its respective Lower Chamber.

Even Bahrain has an equal number in each.

Morris_Dancer · May 2018

Dan Snow, historian, decided to lie to children about women in WWII. And here was I thinking that rewriting history for politically correct bullshit 'reasons' was limited to Assassin's Creed, Doctor Who, and BBC kids' cartoons:
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/999261074598891520

AlastairMeeks · May 2018

CarlottaVance said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/999276357552046080
House of Unelected Has-Beens
79% agree!

Largely contains people with valuable life experience and skills: 21%
Contains too many political cronies and retired or failed politicians: 79%

Not at all leading in any way shape or form, that question...

TOPPING · May 2018

rcs1000 said:

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:
And he added: “Also, why does it have to be grey?”

Because it’s a taxpayer funded, military aircraft Mr Johnson.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/boris-johnson-claims-raf-voyager-transport-aircraft-often-unavailable-claims-he-probably-needs-own-plane/
Taxpayer funded aircraft have to be grey? Not sure what point they are trying to make there...
I think it's because it's principally a military refuelling aircraft. Apparently, the RAF doesn't like them painted in bright colours. Something to do with them being more visible to the enemy.

Perhaps Boris should ask for some razzle dazzle.

Gardenwalker · May 2018

A totally elected Upper House is a recipe for constitutional gridlock. No thanks.

FrancisUrquhart · May 2018

Morris_Dancer said:
Dan Snow, historian, decided to lie to children about women in WWII. And here was I thinking that rewriting history for politically correct bullshit 'reasons' was limited to Assassin's Creed, Doctor Who, and BBC kids' cartoons:
twitter.com/guardian/status/999261074598891520

Bizarre...why not explain the truth and then that the world has changed and now women have much more equal opportunities etc? When you get home you could show them something like this?

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/02/magazine/women-pilots-military.html

https://edition.cnn.com/2015/05/07/politics/first-woman-f-35-pilot/index.html

Sunil_Prasannan · May 2018

According to my calculations (which are sometimes correct!), the average size of Upper Chamber (among all nations that have a bicameral parliament) is 44% of the Lower Chamber.

Thus, 44% of 650 (House of Commons) would mean a hypothetical elected Upper House of 286 seats.

Scott_P · May 2018

https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/999259475604398080

AlastairMeeks · May 2018

Gardenwalker said:
A totally elected Upper House is a recipe for constitutional gridlock. No thanks.

A totally elected Upper House is a recipe for constitutional gridlock. Yes please.

Morris_Dancer · May 2018

Mr. Urquhart, no idea.

Rewriting history, deliberately obfuscating the truth to impose modern norms upon the past, is demented.

Foxy · May 2018

Gardenwalker said:
A totally elected Upper House is a recipe for constitutional gridlock. No thanks.

Unicameral? NZ abolished its upper house in the 50's as I recall. No need for a revising chamber if the lower house does its job properly in the first place.

RobD · May 2018

Sunil_Prasannan said:
According to my calculations (which are sometimes correct!), the average size of Upper Chamber (among all nations that have a bicameral parliament) is 44% of the Lower Chamber.

Thus, 44% of 650 (House of Commons) would mean a hypothetical elected Upper House of 286 seats.

A diminished pool of experience to draw from? What could go wrong.

Sunil_Prasannan · May 2018

FrancisUrquhart said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Dan Snow, historian, decided to lie to children about women in WWII. And here was I thinking that rewriting history for politically correct bullshit 'reasons' was limited to Assassin's Creed, Doctor Who, and BBC kids' cartoons:
twitter.com/guardian/status/999261074598891520
Bizarre...why not explain the truth and then that the world has changed and now women have much more equal opportunities etc? When you get home you could show them something like this?

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/02/magazine/women-pilots-military.html

https://edition.cnn.com/2015/05/07/politics/first-woman-f-35-pilot/index.html

The Soviets had hundreds of women fly planes during ze War.
Lily Litvyak was the top female ace, with a reported 12 kills, though was unfortunately shot down over Kursk in 1943.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lydia_Litvyak

Sunil_Prasannan · May 2018

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:
According to my calculations (which are sometimes correct!), the average size of Upper Chamber (among all nations that have a bicameral parliament) is 44% of the Lower Chamber.

Thus, 44% of 650 (House of Commons) would mean a hypothetical elected Upper House of 286 seats.
A diminished pool of experience to draw from? What could go wrong.

What "experience"? We're talking Unelected Has-Beens!

Sunil_Prasannan · May 2018

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/999259475604398080

I actually like that cartoon - you have noticed the subtle change to my avatar?

OldKingCole · May 2018

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OldKingCole said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

rcs1000 said:
Excuse my ignorance, but when is the Lewisham East by-election? It seems to me that the longer the wait, the better the LibDem chances are.
14th June, I think
According to Wikipedia, ’tis so. There are 14 candidates listed, including, I’m glad, to see Howling Laud Hope for the Monster Raving Loonies.
How many has he fought now?
14 comes up a lot - this will be Hope's 14th by-election!

He’s won a couple of Town Council elections too, IIRC!

FrancisUrquhart · May 2018

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Urquhart, no idea.

Rewriting history, deliberately obfuscating the truth to impose modern norms upon the past, is demented.

It also gives more credence to the one of Jordan Peterson key hobby horses, that academics are overwhelmingly leftest / Marxists and as the journalist obsessed by male dominated patriarchy keeping women down.

While I think there are issues with his argument, it isn't super extreme. However it can lead one down a path to more extreme stuff, because people see hey the mainstream guys are lying about historical fact.

Foxy · May 2018

Morris_Dancer said:
Dan Snow, historian, decided to lie to children about women in WWII. And here was I thinking that rewriting history for politically correct bullshit 'reasons' was limited to Assassin's Creed, Doctor Who, and BBC kids' cartoons:
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/999261074598891520

Though the Soviets were more progressive, and had female combat fliers, the Night Witches:

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2013/07/night-witches-the-female-fighter-pilots-of-world-war-ii/277779/

Tissue_Price · May 2018

IanB2 said:
It may well hang on how much of a by-election operation the Tories are able to mount. They will find it a lot more difficult to motivate people to travel to such an obviously hopeless contest, whereas LibDems are by their nature relatively immune to the prospect of hopelessness.

As a London seat, travel isn't that much of a problem. Even if it is sarf of the river.

TGOHF · May 2018

Morris_Dancer said:
Dan Snow, historian, decided to lie to children about women in WWII. And here was I thinking that rewriting history for politically correct bullshit 'reasons' was limited to Assassin's Creed, Doctor Who, and BBC kids' cartoons:
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/999261074598891520

"When is the right moment to reveal the full horror of the patriarchy to your daughters? "

There is no help for people like this writer. Their indoctrination has taken set.

CarlottaVance · May 2018

Foxy said:

Gardenwalker said:
A totally elected Upper House is a recipe for constitutional gridlock. No thanks.
Unicameral? NZ abolished its upper house in the 50's as I recall. No need for a revising chamber if the lower house does its job properly in the first place.

More Unicameral legislatures than I'd imagined:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_abolished_upper_houses

Beef up the Select Committees and off we go!

Sunil_Prasannan · May 2018

OldKingCole said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OldKingCole said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

rcs1000 said:
Excuse my ignorance, but when is the Lewisham East by-election? It seems to me that the longer the wait, the better the LibDem chances are.
14th June, I think
According to Wikipedia, ’tis so. There are 14 candidates listed, including, I’m glad, to see Howling Laud Hope for the Monster Raving Loonies.
How many has he fought now?
14 comes up a lot - this will be Hope's 14th by-election!
He’s won a couple of Town Council elections too, IIRC!

Unopposed to Fleet Town Council, 2010!

OldKingCole · May 2018

TGOHF said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Dan Snow, historian, decided to lie to children about women in WWII. And here was I thinking that rewriting history for politically correct bullshit 'reasons' was limited to Assassin's Creed, Doctor Who, and BBC kids' cartoons:
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/999261074598891520
"When is the right moment to reveal the full horror of the patriarchy to your daughters? "

There is no help for people like this writer. Their indoctrination has taken set.

Damn’ fool decision to lie. Why not tell the truth?

Now at some point he’s got to tell her that Daddy lied about something!

rpjs · May 2018

RobD said:

AndyJS said:
O/T

"Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php
The middle classes are probably enjoying their tax cuts. That, and the fact he hasn't started WW3, probably work in his favour.

Polling suggests few people have noticed any increase to their take home pay from the tax reform. And in places like CA (and us in NY) the hurt will be at tax return time next year when the $10K cap on deductions for state and local taxes kicks in.

TGOHF · May 2018

OldKingCole said:

TGOHF said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Dan Snow, historian, decided to lie to children about women in WWII. And here was I thinking that rewriting history for politically correct bullshit 'reasons' was limited to Assassin's Creed, Doctor Who, and BBC kids' cartoons:
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/999261074598891520
"When is the right moment to reveal the full horror of the patriarchy to your daughters? "

There is no help for people like this writer. Their indoctrination has taken set.
Damn’ fool decision to lie. Why not tell the truth?

Now at some point he’s got to tell her that Daddy lied about something!

Presumably Daddy lying is part of the "full horror of the patriarchy..."

RobD · May 2018

rpjs said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:
O/T

"Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php
The middle classes are probably enjoying their tax cuts. That, and the fact he hasn't started WW3, probably work in his favour.
Polling suggests few people have noticed any increase to their take home pay from the tax reform. And in places like CA (and us in NY) the hurt will be at tax return time next year when the $10K cap on deductions for state and local taxes kicks in.

I noticed an increase in mine

FrancisUrquhart · May 2018

OldKingCole said:

TGOHF said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Dan Snow, historian, decided to lie to children about women in WWII. And here was I thinking that rewriting history for politically correct bullshit 'reasons' was limited to Assassin's Creed, Doctor Who, and BBC kids' cartoons:
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/999261074598891520
"When is the right moment to reveal the full horror of the patriarchy to your daughters? "

There is no help for people like this writer. Their indoctrination has taken set.
Damn’ fool decision to lie. Why not tell the truth?

Now at some point he’s got to tell her that Daddy lied about something!

I can't even see the logic. Is it not a really good opening to explain that back 50-100 years ago things were different and men and women were not given the same opportunities and that things have now changed for the better.

Its kind of like the nonsensical thinking of inserting ethnic minority actors into historical film / tv drama to ensure some sort of token nod to modern day "balance".

CarlottaVance · May 2018

There's a surprise:

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/999285068362338304

Sandpit · May 2018

OldKingCole said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

rcs1000 said:
Excuse my ignorance, but when is the Lewisham East by-election? It seems to me that the longer the wait, the better the LibDem chances are.
14th June, I think
According to Wikipedia, ’tis so. There are 14 candidates listed, including, I’m glad, to see Howling Laud Hope for the Monster Raving Loonies.
How many has he fought now?

Wiki reckons this will be the 19th time he’s stood for Parliament.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howling_Laud_Hope

I actually used to know him quite well, when he’s not being a Loony was a pub manager in the area where my parents used to live - one of the leafier parts of Aldershot constituency.

Gardenwalker · May 2018

Foxy said:

Gardenwalker said:
A totally elected Upper House is a recipe for constitutional gridlock. No thanks.
Unicameral? NZ abolished its upper house in the 50's as I recall. No need for a revising chamber if the lower house does its job properly in the first place.

NZ has PR, three year terms (limiting what governments can do) and select committees are more powerful.

Looking at the dross in Parliament, does anyone trust the lower house to “do its job properly”?

FrancisUrquhart · May 2018

Who would have guessed that this would cause a problem?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/article-5761867/Ryanair-change-luggage-policy-passengers-checking-bags.html

Sunil_Prasannan · May 2018

Foxy said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Dan Snow, historian, decided to lie to children about women in WWII. And here was I thinking that rewriting history for politically correct bullshit 'reasons' was limited to Assassin's Creed, Doctor Who, and BBC kids' cartoons:
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/999261074598891520
Though the Soviets were more progressive, and had female combat fliers, the Night Witches:

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2013/07/night-witches-the-female-fighter-pilots-of-world-war-ii/277779/

And fighter pilots!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lydia_Litvyak
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yekaterina_Budanova

rpjs · May 2018

Gardenwalker said:
A totally elected Upper House is a recipe for constitutional gridlock. No thanks.

It depends. A sensible arrangement for an elected upper house would be

a) the ministry remains responsible to the lower house only
b) money bills not to need its consent, so it cannot deny supply
c) joint sittings in the case of non-money bills that can't pass both houses (this would need to be tied to the upper house being quite a lot smaller than the Commons)

An elected upper house done correctly could be a real boon - it should make for better conceived and drafted legislation and be a check against the government-controlled Commons' tendency towards elected dictatorship.

TGOHF · May 2018

CarlottaVance said:
There's a surprise:

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/999285068362338304

EU is going to end up with a no deal Brexit - perhaps that is their plan. They ended up with a "no deal" referendum avoider so it wont be unexpected.

rpjs · May 2018

RobD said:

rpjs said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:
O/T

"Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php
The middle classes are probably enjoying their tax cuts. That, and the fact he hasn't started WW3, probably work in his favour.
Polling suggests few people have noticed any increase to their take home pay from the tax reform. And in places like CA (and us in NY) the hurt will be at tax return time next year when the $10K cap on deductions for state and local taxes kicks in.
I noticed an increase in mine

I notionally got an increase, but I immediately upped my withholding to return to the status quo ante because we're going to be clobbered by the $10k SALT cap.

Morris_Dancer · May 2018

Dr. Prasannan, interesting on female Soviet pilots. Didn't know that.

Dr. Foxy, well, yes and no. Better for women on the piloting front, but worse on the politically motivated genocide front.

Nigelb · May 2018

FrancisUrquhart said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Urquhart, no idea.

Rewriting history, deliberately obfuscating the truth to impose modern norms upon the past, is demented.
It also gives more credence to the one of Jordan Peterson key hobby horses, that academics are overwhelmingly leftest / Marxists and as the journalist obsessed by male dominated patriarchy keeping women down.

While I think there are issues with his argument, it isn't super extreme. However it can lead one down a path to more extreme stuff, because people see hey the mainstream guys are lying about historical fact.

Jordan Peterson is a loon - which admittedly is no bar to popularity in the US.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/18/style/jordan-peterson-12-rules-for-life.html

TheScreamingEagles · May 2018

We need a Senate, with just 25 wholly elected Senators from each country.

FrancisUrquhart · May 2018

Nigelb said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Urquhart, no idea.

Rewriting history, deliberately obfuscating the truth to impose modern norms upon the past, is demented.
It also gives more credence to the one of Jordan Peterson key hobby horses, that academics are overwhelmingly leftest / Marxists and as the journalist obsessed by male dominated patriarchy keeping women down.

While I think there are issues with his argument, it isn't super extreme. However it can lead one down a path to more extreme stuff, because people see hey the mainstream guys are lying about historical fact.
Jordan Peterson is a loon - which admittedly is no bar to popularity in the US.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/18/style/jordan-peterson-12-rules-for-life.html

He is rather odd individual in many respects, but (my point was) I believe his popularity is down in no small part to this kind of nonsense.

Sandpit · May 2018

Mr Dancer, Betfair have their Monaco markets up now. I’ve an Ayrton at 7.8 on ‘No SC’.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/motor-sport/event/28727864/market?marketId=1.143847969

AndyJS · May 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:
We need a Senate, with just 25 wholly elected Senators from each country.

Which electoral system?

FrancisUrquhart · May 2018

Microsoft also has an AI bot that makes phone calls to humans

https://www.theverge.com/2018/5/22/17379508/microsoft-xiaoice-chat-bot-phone-call-demo

Sandpit · May 2018

FrancisUrquhart said:
Microsoft also has an AI bot that makes phone calls to humans

https://www.theverge.com/2018/5/22/17379508/microsoft-xiaoice-chat-bot-phone-call-demo

Now to get Microsoft’s AI bot and Google’s AI bot talking to each other.

Scott_P · May 2018

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/999288853105012736

TheScreamingEagles · May 2018

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
We need a Senate, with just 25 wholly elected Senators from each country.
Which electoral system?

Multi member STV

CarlottaVance · May 2018

Titter....

https://twitter.com/DavidHughesPA/status/999287251266953217

OldKingCole · May 2018

FrancisUrquhart said:

OldKingCole said:

TGOHF said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Dan Snow, historian, decided to lie to children about women in WWII. And here was I thinking that rewriting history for politically correct bullshit 'reasons' was limited to Assassin's Creed, Doctor Who, and BBC kids' cartoons:
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/999261074598891520
"When is the right moment to reveal the full horror of the patriarchy to your daughters? "

There is no help for people like this writer. Their indoctrination has taken set.
Damn’ fool decision to lie. Why not tell the truth?

Now at some point he’s got to tell her that Daddy lied about something!
I can't even see the logic. Is it not a really good opening to explain that back 50-100 years ago things were different and men and women were not given the same opportunities and that things have now changed for the better.

Its kind of like the nonsensical thinking of inserting ethnic minority actors into historical film / tv drama to ensure some sort of token nod to modern day "balance".

I have a female relation who qualified into what was almost entirely male profession back in the late 20’s.
One of her great-grandaughters, who never actually met her, wrote a school project on how proud she was of what her ancestor did. Two at least of her granddaughters used her as a life example!
Far, far better to have told the girl that women in 40’s Britain weren’t allowed to fly in combat although they are now!

TGOHF · May 2018

Nigelb said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Urquhart, no idea.

Rewriting history, deliberately obfuscating the truth to impose modern norms upon the past, is demented.
It also gives more credence to the one of Jordan Peterson key hobby horses, that academics are overwhelmingly leftest / Marxists and as the journalist obsessed by male dominated patriarchy keeping women down.

While I think there are issues with his argument, it isn't super extreme. However it can lead one down a path to more extreme stuff, because people see hey the mainstream guys are lying about historical fact.
Jordan Peterson is a loon - which admittedly is no bar to popularity in the US.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/18/style/jordan-peterson-12-rules-for-life.html

Isn't he also a "Nazi" and a "racist" ? That's the usual slam down from lefties to those they won't argue with on facts.

rpjs · May 2018

On the Dan Snow thing, I'm surprised he didn't tell his daughter about the Air Transport Auxiliary, the mainly female ferry pilot service that, inter alia, flew newly-built combat aircraft from the factories to the airfields. Could be quite hazardous: Amy Johnson was one of the ATA pilots who lost their lives while serving in it.

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