politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By-election punters should check the form before risking their cash
There have only been five Westminster by-elections which have been contested by the main parties since the Brexit referendum and the average party changes are shown in the chart above.
I wouldn't completely rule out a LD gain in Lewisham East. I don't think the Tories can win even though it was a Conservative seat in 1983 and 1987 and probably would have also been Tory in 1992 under the current boundaries.
Britain will mirror the European Union’s data protection rules in British law in full, UK negotiators have said in a bid to convince Brussels to preserve intelligence-sharing and the lucrative free flow of data after Brexit.
I agree with OGH, the Remainers Lib Dems have the best shot at beating Brexiteer Labour (who had helped their chances by picking a strong local candidate).
O/t but it concerns a LD. A Guardian report, https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/may/23/ says that an ex-mayor of ipswich has been denied citizenship after almost 40 years in uk. She was given, and it’s in her passport, indefinite leave to remain when she married and moved here in 1979.
O/t but it concerns a LD. A Guardian report, https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/may/23/ says that an ex-mayor of ipswich has been denied citizenship after almost 40 years in uk. She was given, and it’s in her passport, indefinite leave to remain when she married and moved here in 1979.
What on earth is the Home Office doing?
The Home Office is implementing Theresa May's explicit policy.
Britain will mirror the European Union’s data protection rules in British law in full, UK negotiators have said in a bid to convince Brussels to preserve intelligence-sharing and the lucrative free flow of data after Brexit.
Gosh, how exciting. Mr. Pulpstar versus Mr. Smithson, who will be right? The latter favours the bookies' assessment, so greater glory for Mr. Pulpstar if he gets it right, I think.
Taxpayer funded aircraft have to be grey? Not sure what point they are trying to make there...
I think it's because it's principally a military refuelling aircraft. Apparently, the RAF doesn't like them painted in bright colours. Something to do with them being more visible to the enemy.
Taxpayer funded aircraft have to be grey? Not sure what point they are trying to make there...
I think it's because it's principally a military refuelling aircraft. Apparently, the RAF doesn't like them painted in bright colours. Something to do with them being more visible to the enemy.
O/t but it concerns a LD. A Guardian report, https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/may/23/ says that an ex-mayor of ipswich has been denied citizenship after almost 40 years in uk. She was given, and it’s in her passport, indefinite leave to remain when she married and moved here in 1979.
What on earth is the Home Office doing?
What they've been doing for years now. My wife was in almost exactly the same position, and ended up (successfully) applying for citizenship, as they kept making the rules for maintaining leave to remain more onerous.
Taxpayer funded aircraft have to be grey? Not sure what point they are trying to make there...
I think it's because it's principally a military refuelling aircraft. Apparently, the RAF doesn't like them painted in bright colours. Something to do with them being more visible to the enemy.
Ah, the puppy-like levels of enthusiasm from Lib Dems for by-elections.
Lewisham East is very different from Witney or Richmond Park.
1a. It's Labour, not the Tories defending. 1b. It's the opposition, not the government defending. 1c. The defending candidate is strongly pro-Remain; the Lib Dems cannot easily harvest the Remain vote. 2. It's a snap poll; there's not been months of preparation time waiting for an anticipated resignation. 3. There is no particularly strong LD base in the constituency, unlike Witney and, especially, Richmond.
Add to which Pulpstar's comments, which is that there's a solid Tory vote and - overlapping - a solid Leave vote, which presumably the Tories can target without too much opposition.
Put simply, what is the Lib Dem message here? What are they for? 'Stop Labour' seems a fairly inadequate message when the local elections there indicate the public are quite happy with Labour as long as the candidate isn't a liability - which she isn't.
What an excellent reason not to vote Labour: FPTP with the HoL (and majority of 100) = elected dictatorship FPTP without the HoL = elected tyranny.
Does any country have FPTP without any further checks and balances? New Zealand did but moved to PR. Sweden and Denmark have no 2nd chamber but have the protection of PR and a written constitution.
Worth noting that Labour hasn't lost a by-election to the Lib Dems since 2006, and hasn't lost one in opposition since 1987 (which was before the Lib Dems even existed, as such).
The Tories, the SNP and Respect have all gained seats off Labour with Labour in opposition than the Lib Dems have.
What an excellent reason not to vote Labour: FPTP with the HoL (and majority of 100) = elected dictatorship FPTP without the HoL = elected tyranny.
Does any country have FPTP without any further checks and balances? New Zealand did but moved to PR. Sweden and Denmark have no 2nd chamber but have the protection of PR and a written constitution.
House of Unelected Has-Beens. Even the US has an elected second chamber.
Excuse my ignorance, but when is the Lewisham East by-election? It seems to me that the longer the wait, the better the LibDem chances are.
14th June, I think
According to Wikipedia, ’tis so. There are 14 candidates listed, including, I’m glad, to see Howling Laud Hope for the Monster Raving Loonies. How many has he fought now?
It may well hang on how much of a by-election operation the Tories are able to mount. They will find it a lot more difficult to motivate people to travel to such an obviously hopeless contest, whereas LibDems are by their nature relatively immune to the prospect of hopelessness.
What an excellent reason not to vote Labour: FPTP with the HoL (and majority of 100) = elected dictatorship FPTP without the HoL = elected tyranny.
Does any country have FPTP without any further checks and balances? New Zealand did but moved to PR. Sweden and Denmark have no 2nd chamber but have the protection of PR and a written constitution.
To be fair to Corbyn, the article does say they want to replace it with an elected chamber.
Excuse my ignorance, but when is the Lewisham East by-election? It seems to me that the longer the wait, the better the LibDem chances are.
14th June, I think
According to Wikipedia, ’tis so. There are 14 candidates listed, including, I’m glad, to see Howling Laud Hope for the Monster Raving Loonies. How many has he fought now?
14 comes up a lot - this will be Hope's 14th by-election!
What an excellent reason not to vote Labour: FPTP with the HoL (and majority of 100) = elected dictatorship FPTP without the HoL = elected tyranny.
Does any country have FPTP without any further checks and balances? New Zealand did but moved to PR. Sweden and Denmark have no 2nd chamber but have the protection of PR and a written constitution.
To be fair to Corbyn, the article does say they want to replace it with an elected chamber.
As with anything in the HOL, the devil is in the detail. How it is constructed and what powers it has is hugely variable.
What an excellent reason not to vote Labour: FPTP with the HoL (and majority of 100) = elected dictatorship FPTP without the HoL = elected tyranny.
Does any country have FPTP without any further checks and balances? New Zealand did but moved to PR. Sweden and Denmark have no 2nd chamber but have the protection of PR and a written constitution.
To be fair to Corbyn, the article does say they want to replace it with an elected chamber.
Dan Snow, historian, decided to lie to children about women in WWII. And here was I thinking that rewriting history for politically correct bullshit 'reasons' was limited to Assassin's Creed, Doctor Who, and BBC kids' cartoons: https://twitter.com/guardian/status/999261074598891520
Taxpayer funded aircraft have to be grey? Not sure what point they are trying to make there...
I think it's because it's principally a military refuelling aircraft. Apparently, the RAF doesn't like them painted in bright colours. Something to do with them being more visible to the enemy.
Dan Snow, historian, decided to lie to children about women in WWII. And here was I thinking that rewriting history for politically correct bullshit 'reasons' was limited to Assassin's Creed, Doctor Who, and BBC kids' cartoons: twitter.com/guardian/status/999261074598891520
Bizarre...why not explain the truth and then that the world has changed and now women have much more equal opportunities etc? When you get home you could show them something like this?
According to my calculations (which are sometimes correct!), the average size of Upper Chamber (among all nations that have a bicameral parliament) is 44% of the Lower Chamber.
Thus, 44% of 650 (House of Commons) would mean a hypothetical elected Upper House of 286 seats.
A totally elected Upper House is a recipe for constitutional gridlock. No thanks.
Unicameral? NZ abolished its upper house in the 50's as I recall. No need for a revising chamber if the lower house does its job properly in the first place.
According to my calculations (which are sometimes correct!), the average size of Upper Chamber (among all nations that have a bicameral parliament) is 44% of the Lower Chamber.
Thus, 44% of 650 (House of Commons) would mean a hypothetical elected Upper House of 286 seats.
A diminished pool of experience to draw from? What could go wrong.
Dan Snow, historian, decided to lie to children about women in WWII. And here was I thinking that rewriting history for politically correct bullshit 'reasons' was limited to Assassin's Creed, Doctor Who, and BBC kids' cartoons: twitter.com/guardian/status/999261074598891520
Bizarre...why not explain the truth and then that the world has changed and now women have much more equal opportunities etc? When you get home you could show them something like this?
The Soviets had hundreds of women fly planes during ze War. Lily Litvyak was the top female ace, with a reported 12 kills, though was unfortunately shot down over Kursk in 1943.
According to my calculations (which are sometimes correct!), the average size of Upper Chamber (among all nations that have a bicameral parliament) is 44% of the Lower Chamber.
Thus, 44% of 650 (House of Commons) would mean a hypothetical elected Upper House of 286 seats.
A diminished pool of experience to draw from? What could go wrong.
What "experience"? We're talking Unelected Has-Beens!
Excuse my ignorance, but when is the Lewisham East by-election? It seems to me that the longer the wait, the better the LibDem chances are.
14th June, I think
According to Wikipedia, ’tis so. There are 14 candidates listed, including, I’m glad, to see Howling Laud Hope for the Monster Raving Loonies. How many has he fought now?
14 comes up a lot - this will be Hope's 14th by-election!
He’s won a couple of Town Council elections too, IIRC!
Rewriting history, deliberately obfuscating the truth to impose modern norms upon the past, is demented.
It also gives more credence to the one of Jordan Peterson key hobby horses, that academics are overwhelmingly leftest / Marxists and as the journalist obsessed by male dominated patriarchy keeping women down.
While I think there are issues with his argument, it isn't super extreme. However it can lead one down a path to more extreme stuff, because people see hey the mainstream guys are lying about historical fact.
Dan Snow, historian, decided to lie to children about women in WWII. And here was I thinking that rewriting history for politically correct bullshit 'reasons' was limited to Assassin's Creed, Doctor Who, and BBC kids' cartoons: https://twitter.com/guardian/status/999261074598891520
Though the Soviets were more progressive, and had female combat fliers, the Night Witches:
It may well hang on how much of a by-election operation the Tories are able to mount. They will find it a lot more difficult to motivate people to travel to such an obviously hopeless contest, whereas LibDems are by their nature relatively immune to the prospect of hopelessness.
As a London seat, travel isn't that much of a problem. Even if it is sarf of the river.
Dan Snow, historian, decided to lie to children about women in WWII. And here was I thinking that rewriting history for politically correct bullshit 'reasons' was limited to Assassin's Creed, Doctor Who, and BBC kids' cartoons: https://twitter.com/guardian/status/999261074598891520
"When is the right moment to reveal the full horror of the patriarchy to your daughters? "
There is no help for people like this writer. Their indoctrination has taken set.
A totally elected Upper House is a recipe for constitutional gridlock. No thanks.
Unicameral? NZ abolished its upper house in the 50's as I recall. No need for a revising chamber if the lower house does its job properly in the first place.
Excuse my ignorance, but when is the Lewisham East by-election? It seems to me that the longer the wait, the better the LibDem chances are.
14th June, I think
According to Wikipedia, ’tis so. There are 14 candidates listed, including, I’m glad, to see Howling Laud Hope for the Monster Raving Loonies. How many has he fought now?
14 comes up a lot - this will be Hope's 14th by-election!
He’s won a couple of Town Council elections too, IIRC!
Dan Snow, historian, decided to lie to children about women in WWII. And here was I thinking that rewriting history for politically correct bullshit 'reasons' was limited to Assassin's Creed, Doctor Who, and BBC kids' cartoons: https://twitter.com/guardian/status/999261074598891520
"When is the right moment to reveal the full horror of the patriarchy to your daughters? "
There is no help for people like this writer. Their indoctrination has taken set.
Damn’ fool decision to lie. Why not tell the truth?
Now at some point he’s got to tell her that Daddy lied about something!
The middle classes are probably enjoying their tax cuts. That, and the fact he hasn't started WW3, probably work in his favour.
Polling suggests few people have noticed any increase to their take home pay from the tax reform. And in places like CA (and us in NY) the hurt will be at tax return time next year when the $10K cap on deductions for state and local taxes kicks in.
Dan Snow, historian, decided to lie to children about women in WWII. And here was I thinking that rewriting history for politically correct bullshit 'reasons' was limited to Assassin's Creed, Doctor Who, and BBC kids' cartoons: https://twitter.com/guardian/status/999261074598891520
"When is the right moment to reveal the full horror of the patriarchy to your daughters? "
There is no help for people like this writer. Their indoctrination has taken set.
Damn’ fool decision to lie. Why not tell the truth?
Now at some point he’s got to tell her that Daddy lied about something!
Presumably Daddy lying is part of the "full horror of the patriarchy..."
The middle classes are probably enjoying their tax cuts. That, and the fact he hasn't started WW3, probably work in his favour.
Polling suggests few people have noticed any increase to their take home pay from the tax reform. And in places like CA (and us in NY) the hurt will be at tax return time next year when the $10K cap on deductions for state and local taxes kicks in.
Dan Snow, historian, decided to lie to children about women in WWII. And here was I thinking that rewriting history for politically correct bullshit 'reasons' was limited to Assassin's Creed, Doctor Who, and BBC kids' cartoons: https://twitter.com/guardian/status/999261074598891520
"When is the right moment to reveal the full horror of the patriarchy to your daughters? "
There is no help for people like this writer. Their indoctrination has taken set.
Damn’ fool decision to lie. Why not tell the truth?
Now at some point he’s got to tell her that Daddy lied about something!
I can't even see the logic. Is it not a really good opening to explain that back 50-100 years ago things were different and men and women were not given the same opportunities and that things have now changed for the better.
Its kind of like the nonsensical thinking of inserting ethnic minority actors into historical film / tv drama to ensure some sort of token nod to modern day "balance".
Excuse my ignorance, but when is the Lewisham East by-election? It seems to me that the longer the wait, the better the LibDem chances are.
14th June, I think
According to Wikipedia, ’tis so. There are 14 candidates listed, including, I’m glad, to see Howling Laud Hope for the Monster Raving Loonies. How many has he fought now?
I actually used to know him quite well, when he’s not being a Loony was a pub manager in the area where my parents used to live - one of the leafier parts of Aldershot constituency.
A totally elected Upper House is a recipe for constitutional gridlock. No thanks.
Unicameral? NZ abolished its upper house in the 50's as I recall. No need for a revising chamber if the lower house does its job properly in the first place.
NZ has PR, three year terms (limiting what governments can do) and select committees are more powerful.
Looking at the dross in Parliament, does anyone trust the lower house to “do its job properly”?
Dan Snow, historian, decided to lie to children about women in WWII. And here was I thinking that rewriting history for politically correct bullshit 'reasons' was limited to Assassin's Creed, Doctor Who, and BBC kids' cartoons: https://twitter.com/guardian/status/999261074598891520
Though the Soviets were more progressive, and had female combat fliers, the Night Witches:
A totally elected Upper House is a recipe for constitutional gridlock. No thanks.
It depends. A sensible arrangement for an elected upper house would be
a) the ministry remains responsible to the lower house only b) money bills not to need its consent, so it cannot deny supply c) joint sittings in the case of non-money bills that can't pass both houses (this would need to be tied to the upper house being quite a lot smaller than the Commons)
An elected upper house done correctly could be a real boon - it should make for better conceived and drafted legislation and be a check against the government-controlled Commons' tendency towards elected dictatorship.
The middle classes are probably enjoying their tax cuts. That, and the fact he hasn't started WW3, probably work in his favour.
Polling suggests few people have noticed any increase to their take home pay from the tax reform. And in places like CA (and us in NY) the hurt will be at tax return time next year when the $10K cap on deductions for state and local taxes kicks in.
I noticed an increase in mine
I notionally got an increase, but I immediately upped my withholding to return to the status quo ante because we're going to be clobbered by the $10k SALT cap.
Rewriting history, deliberately obfuscating the truth to impose modern norms upon the past, is demented.
It also gives more credence to the one of Jordan Peterson key hobby horses, that academics are overwhelmingly leftest / Marxists and as the journalist obsessed by male dominated patriarchy keeping women down.
While I think there are issues with his argument, it isn't super extreme. However it can lead one down a path to more extreme stuff, because people see hey the mainstream guys are lying about historical fact.
Rewriting history, deliberately obfuscating the truth to impose modern norms upon the past, is demented.
It also gives more credence to the one of Jordan Peterson key hobby horses, that academics are overwhelmingly leftest / Marxists and as the journalist obsessed by male dominated patriarchy keeping women down.
While I think there are issues with his argument, it isn't super extreme. However it can lead one down a path to more extreme stuff, because people see hey the mainstream guys are lying about historical fact.
Dan Snow, historian, decided to lie to children about women in WWII. And here was I thinking that rewriting history for politically correct bullshit 'reasons' was limited to Assassin's Creed, Doctor Who, and BBC kids' cartoons: https://twitter.com/guardian/status/999261074598891520
"When is the right moment to reveal the full horror of the patriarchy to your daughters? "
There is no help for people like this writer. Their indoctrination has taken set.
Damn’ fool decision to lie. Why not tell the truth?
Now at some point he’s got to tell her that Daddy lied about something!
I can't even see the logic. Is it not a really good opening to explain that back 50-100 years ago things were different and men and women were not given the same opportunities and that things have now changed for the better.
Its kind of like the nonsensical thinking of inserting ethnic minority actors into historical film / tv drama to ensure some sort of token nod to modern day "balance".
I have a female relation who qualified into what was almost entirely male profession back in the late 20’s. One of her great-grandaughters, who never actually met her, wrote a school project on how proud she was of what her ancestor did. Two at least of her granddaughters used her as a life example! Far, far better to have told the girl that women in 40’s Britain weren’t allowed to fly in combat although they are now!
Rewriting history, deliberately obfuscating the truth to impose modern norms upon the past, is demented.
It also gives more credence to the one of Jordan Peterson key hobby horses, that academics are overwhelmingly leftest / Marxists and as the journalist obsessed by male dominated patriarchy keeping women down.
While I think there are issues with his argument, it isn't super extreme. However it can lead one down a path to more extreme stuff, because people see hey the mainstream guys are lying about historical fact.
On the Dan Snow thing, I'm surprised he didn't tell his daughter about the Air Transport Auxiliary, the mainly female ferry pilot service that, inter alia, flew newly-built combat aircraft from the factories to the airfields. Could be quite hazardous: Amy Johnson was one of the ATA pilots who lost their lives while serving in it.
Comments
Because it’s a taxpayer funded, military aircraft Mr Johnson.
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/boris-johnson-claims-raf-voyager-transport-aircraft-often-unavailable-claims-he-probably-needs-own-plane/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/23/britain-follow-eu-data-rules-full-brexitin-bid-save-trade-ties
Britain will mirror the European Union’s data protection rules in British law in full, UK negotiators have said in a bid to convince Brussels to preserve intelligence-sharing and the lucrative free flow of data after Brexit.
She was given, and it’s in her passport, indefinite leave to remain when she married and moved here in 1979.
What on earth is the Home Office doing?
https://twitter.com/ellbretland/status/998952675357184000?s=21
https://twitter.com/stephenbarrow/status/999160506022793216?s=21
Gosh, how exciting. Mr. Pulpstar versus Mr. Smithson, who will be right? The latter favours the bookies' assessment, so greater glory for Mr. Pulpstar if he gets it right, I think.
My wife was in almost exactly the same position, and ended up (successfully) applying for citizenship, as they kept making the rules for maintaining leave to remain more onerous.
ComRes:
HoL should be abolished:
Con: 29
Lab: 17
LD: 13
Green 23
UKIP: 49
Jeremy going after the Tory-Green-UKIP voter....
http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/22052018-We-The-People-Tables-MAY-2018.pdf
Lewisham East is very different from Witney or Richmond Park.
1a. It's Labour, not the Tories defending.
1b. It's the opposition, not the government defending.
1c. The defending candidate is strongly pro-Remain; the Lib Dems cannot easily harvest the Remain vote.
2. It's a snap poll; there's not been months of preparation time waiting for an anticipated resignation.
3. There is no particularly strong LD base in the constituency, unlike Witney and, especially, Richmond.
Add to which Pulpstar's comments, which is that there's a solid Tory vote and - overlapping - a solid Leave vote, which presumably the Tories can target without too much opposition.
Put simply, what is the Lib Dem message here? What are they for? 'Stop Labour' seems a fairly inadequate message when the local elections there indicate the public are quite happy with Labour as long as the candidate isn't a liability - which she isn't.
FPTP with the HoL (and majority of 100) = elected dictatorship
FPTP without the HoL = elected tyranny.
Does any country have FPTP without any further checks and balances?
New Zealand did but moved to PR.
Sweden and Denmark have no 2nd chamber but have the protection of PR and a written constitution.
"Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"
https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php
Early positioning for some kind of coalition?
The Tories, the SNP and Respect have all gained seats off Labour with Labour in opposition than the Lib Dems have.
HoL should be abolished:
18-24: 14
25-34: 14
35-44: 23
45-54: 30
55-64: 31
65+ :28
How many has he fought now?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/999272894784995338
Largely contains people with valuable life experience and skills: 21%
Contains too many political cronies and retired or failed politicians: 79%
Even Bahrain has an equal number in each.
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/999261074598891520
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/02/magazine/women-pilots-military.html
https://edition.cnn.com/2015/05/07/politics/first-woman-f-35-pilot/index.html
Thus, 44% of 650 (House of Commons) would mean a hypothetical elected Upper House of 286 seats.
Rewriting history, deliberately obfuscating the truth to impose modern norms upon the past, is demented.
Lily Litvyak was the top female ace, with a reported 12 kills, though was unfortunately shot down over Kursk in 1943.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lydia_Litvyak
While I think there are issues with his argument, it isn't super extreme. However it can lead one down a path to more extreme stuff, because people see hey the mainstream guys are lying about historical fact.
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2013/07/night-witches-the-female-fighter-pilots-of-world-war-ii/277779/
There is no help for people like this writer. Their indoctrination has taken set.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_abolished_upper_houses
Beef up the Select Committees and off we go!
Now at some point he’s got to tell her that Daddy lied about something!
Its kind of like the nonsensical thinking of inserting ethnic minority actors into historical film / tv drama to ensure some sort of token nod to modern day "balance".
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/999285068362338304
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howling_Laud_Hope
I actually used to know him quite well, when he’s not being a Loony was a pub manager in the area where my parents used to live - one of the leafier parts of Aldershot constituency.
Looking at the dross in Parliament, does anyone trust the lower house to “do its job properly”?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/article-5761867/Ryanair-change-luggage-policy-passengers-checking-bags.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lydia_Litvyak
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yekaterina_Budanova
a) the ministry remains responsible to the lower house only
b) money bills not to need its consent, so it cannot deny supply
c) joint sittings in the case of non-money bills that can't pass both houses (this would need to be tied to the upper house being quite a lot smaller than the Commons)
An elected upper house done correctly could be a real boon - it should make for better conceived and drafted legislation and be a check against the government-controlled Commons' tendency towards elected dictatorship.
Dr. Foxy, well, yes and no. Better for women on the piloting front, but worse on the politically motivated genocide front.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/18/style/jordan-peterson-12-rules-for-life.html
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/motor-sport/event/28727864/market?marketId=1.143847969
https://www.theverge.com/2018/5/22/17379508/microsoft-xiaoice-chat-bot-phone-call-demo
https://twitter.com/DavidHughesPA/status/999287251266953217
One of her great-grandaughters, who never actually met her, wrote a school project on how proud she was of what her ancestor did. Two at least of her granddaughters used her as a life example!
Far, far better to have told the girl that women in 40’s Britain weren’t allowed to fly in combat although they are now!