politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A sign of LAB confidence in Lewisham East: Local party chief g

Sunil_Prasannan said:

O/T A little bit miffed that no-one's spotted the subtle change to my avatar since a week ago

Theuniondivvie said:

You Anglos

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

Foxy said:

DavidL said:

Foxy said:

DavidL said:

Elliot said:

RoyalBlue said:

Morris_Dancer said:

ay.

If t

I do wonder if going hard on the Downs syndrome issue is wise for the anti-abortion side. Where abortion is available, something like 95% of couples choose to terminate in that case.

I think it is one of the most difficult moral questions. I am personally very opposed to abortion. When my wife and I were told there was a risk of downs with one of our children we didn’t even have the test done. But I am very loathe to make the choice for others, particularly other women. I think ultimately women should have the right to choose, at least to the point the fetus is viable.

I too am quite anti abortion, in similar circumstances I too would not have had Downs screening. On the other hand, I would not inflict my choice on others, so would not want tighter abortion rules.

It is entirely possible to be anti-abortion in ones own life but pro choice on a societal level.

Sally Phillips made this remarkeable documentary on the BBC a little while back:

https://youtu.be/x16wGajCHIw

That is pretty much where I am. And yet...the number of abortions in the U.K. each year appals me. I respect the rights of others to make different choices but I wish they didn’t.

There are many life choices that I see people make, that I wish they did not. I am sure that the legal profession is the same.

Ideally, I would like to see abortion disappear by obsalescence. I mean that all children being conceived in loving and continuing relationships.

I think that we are in exact agreement on this.

Agreement on the desirability of utopias is not the best basis for policy making.
If every child were conceived in a loving and continuing relationship, a great deal of legislation would be entirely unnecessary...

OldKingCole said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RoyalBlue said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

If the Repeal side are complaining about how their opponents are campaigning, they know they’re in trouble.

In the USA, opinion on whether Roe v Wade was right has been incredibly stable, unlike the polling on interracial marriage, gay marriage, cannabis legalisation etc. It is a categorically different issue, because to many people, more than one life is involved, and that life has no say in the matter.

Where Great Britain leads, Ireland lags behind:

Legalisation of same-sex relations:
E & W. 1967, Scot. 1980, NI 1982, Ireland 1993

Legalisation of divorce:
UK 1937, Ireland 1997

Legalisation of abortion:
E & W, Sct. 1967, NI illegal, Ireland illegal

Blame the colonials that occupied Ireland for so long.

The Irish still do - just a mere 100 years later. If only the chips on their shoulders would catch the potato blight.

400+ years of being treated, at best, as second class citizens and at worst as slightly better than cattle tends to leave wounds!

Not sure whether the English still resent the Normans, but one could argue that the Referendum seems to point that way.

Morris_Dancer said:

Particularly when, as a nation, we've moved on from World War Two...

Pulpstar said:

A really positive Ed Sheeran story - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-44195496

I wonder if there'll eventually be a legal battle with Viagogo. Hopefully Mr Sheeran will emerge victorious if so.

Pulpstar said:

A really positive Ed Sheeran story - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-44195496

I wonder if there'll eventually be a legal battle with Viagogo. Hopefully Mr Sheeran will emerge victorious if so.

AnneJGP said:

Nigelb said:

Agreement on the desirability of utopias is not the best basis for policy making.
If every child were conceived in a loving and continuing relationship, a great deal of legislation would be entirely unnecessary...

Not every child conceived in a loving and continuing relationship avoids being aborted, even without negative tests. Sometimes the parents feel they just can't cope with another one at the moment, then a few years later the timing is better.

Good afternoon, everybody.

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

2nd place in Lewisham East

Tories 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2015, 2017

LDs 2010

1st place in Lewisham East

Tories 1987

'LDs can't win here, Only the Tories can beat Labour in Lewisham East!'

Then why are the Tories 100/1 and the LDs 20/1?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. HYUFD, interesting you say that, given the odds:
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/998913472124637184

TGOHF said:

https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/998951211167637506

Morris_Dancer said:

King Cole, how long should historical grudges be held? William the Conqueror committed genocide against Yorkshire 930 years[ish] ago. Ok for me to be a grumpy Gary about that?

It's daft. Particularly when, as a nation, we've moved on from World War Two, yet some insist on clinging to ancient grudges that affected their distant ancestors. It's very silly.

We should remember history and learn from it, but being chained to it is just a matter of sentimental self-harm.

Stark_Dawning said:

Seems Liam has been humiliated. Australia and New Zealand are now sidling up to make trade deals with the EU before of us.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/22/eu-trade-talks-australia-new-zealand-brexit-commonwealth

Of course, there was much resentment when we abandoned them for the Common Market in the 1970s, so perhaps this is a dish best served cold.

OblitusSumMe said:

Morris_Dancer said:

King Cole, how long should historical grudges be held? William the Conqueror committed genocide against Yorkshire 930 years[ish] ago. Ok for me to be a grumpy Gary about that?

It's daft. Particularly when, as a nation, we've moved on from World War Two, yet some insist on clinging to ancient grudges that affected their distant ancestors. It's very silly.

We should remember history and learn from it, but being chained to it is just a matter of sentimental self-harm.

The idea that England has moved on from WWII is ludicrous nonsense. It forms the core of the country's positive self-image.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. D, and also Fox being quite incompetent.

Tissue_Price said:

HYUFD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. HYUFD, interesting you say that, given the odds:
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/998913472124637184

Thanks, might put a few quid on that first bet

I agree that the Conservatives should probably be slight favourites in the match bet - but the Lib Dems should be shorter for the seat (it's basically inconceivable for Labour to lose it, but if they do, it will be to the LDs).

Tissue_Price said:

HYUFD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. HYUFD, interesting you say that, given the odds:
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/998913472124637184

Thanks, might put a few quid on that first bet

I agree that the Conservatives should probably be slight favourites in the match bet - but the Lib Dems should be shorter for the seat (it's basically inconceivable for Labour to lose it, but if they do, it will be to the LDs).

NickPalmer said:

It's a salient reminder to factional types that the media don't really bother to distinguish between pro and anti Corbyn people - it's just a "new Labour outrage" story.

El_Sid said:

This is interesting from Matt Pound who ran Daby's campaign :
https://labourlist.org/2018/05/matt-pound-how-janet-daby-won-the-lewisham-east-selection-race/

"Sakina Sheikh announced her intention to stand within an hour of Heidi Alexander’s resignation. Her leaflets had already been printed by the time she was shortlisted on the Monday and dropped on the doorstep of every Labour Member in Lewisham East on Tuesday morning. Reportedly, Momentum were able to call through the entire list of eligible voting members of Lewisham East Labour Party on the same day they received it. Momentum had paid staff working full-time on Sakina’s campaign and volunteers working remotely in phonebanks in locations across London.

By contrast, when I arrived to volunteer on Janet’s phonebank at 6pm on the Tuesday, a leaflet had not been designed let alone printed....

Part of the reason we checked and rechecked our calculations and fought so hard to turn out every single vote was that on some level we believed Momentum’s own propaganda – that it is an unstoppable force. At one stage we even had a theory that, following conversations with members claiming to be contacted by Momentum up to 25 times in a single week, that they had swamped the phone lines to a degree that meant no one else could canvass effectively. The real explanation was far simpler: the swathes of Momentum-supporting members getting ready to pack the selection meeting simply didn’t exist. We were chasing an illusion, a powerful illusion backed up by their incredible presence on social media, but an illusion just the same...

All the money they spent, phone calls they made, frontbench endorsements they secured, door-to-door canvassing and celebrity visits from Owen Jones translated into just 135 votes out of a potential 1,600."

OblitusSumMe said:

OldKingCole said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RoyalBlue said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

If the Repeal side are complaining about how their opponents are campaigning, they know they’re in trouble.

In the USA, opinion on whether Roe v Wade was right has been incredibly stable, unlike the polling on interracial marriage, gay marriage, cannabis legalisation etc. It is a categorically different issue, because to many people, more than one life is involved, and that life has no say in the matter.

Where Great Britain leads, Ireland lags behind:

Legalisation of same-sex relations:
E & W. 1967, Scot. 1980, NI 1982, Ireland 1993

Legalisation of divorce:
UK 1937, Ireland 1997

Legalisation of abortion:
E & W, Sct. 1967, NI illegal, Ireland illegal

Blame the colonials that occupied Ireland for so long.

The Irish still do - just a mere 100 years later. If only the chips on their shoulders would catch the potato blight.

400+ years of being treated, at best, as second class citizens and at worst as slightly better than cattle tends to leave wounds!

Not sure whether the English still resent the Normans, but one could argue that the Referendum seems to point that way.

The English have a strange view of their past oppression. The Norman Conquest is pretty much celebrated and I don't anticipate an Indian Raj version of Monty Python's "What did the Romans ever do for us?" sketch any time soon.

Stark_Dawning said:

RobD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Seems Liam has been humiliated. Australia and New Zealand are now sidling up to make trade deals with the EU before of us.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/22/eu-trade-talks-australia-new-zealand-brexit-commonwealth

Of course, there was much resentment when we abandoned them for the Common Market in the 1970s, so perhaps this is a dish best served cold.

Perhaps that is because the UK is not able to negotiate until it has left?

Yes, but these should have been the first two gleaming jewels of Britain's new global era. If we're going to be looking with envious eyes at the EU's deal with Aus-Zealand then one starts to question the whole point. How did Liam let that one slip through his fingers? That only leaves us with Ghana and perhaps Trump and his chlorinated chicken.

AndyJS said:

Useless fact:

One of the independent candidates in Lewisham East, Charles Carey, previously contested the seat in February 1974, getting 269 votes. He hasn't stood in the constituency since then until now.

Cookie said:

OblitusSumMe said:

The English have a strange view of their past oppression. The Norman Conquest is pretty much celebrated and I don't anticipate an Indian Raj version of Monty Python's "What did the Romans ever do for us?" sketch any time soon.

Well I still resent the Norman conquest. England would have been a much happier and more successful place without it, that's for sure. I also resent that as an Englishman, my forebears are blamed by the Welsh and Irish for what was effectively a Norman conquest of their countries.

But as I am a descendent of pretty much everyone who was around in Greate Britain 1000 years ago - or at least everyone who had descendents - Norman, English, Scottish, Welsh and presumably somewhere some Irish and continental too- it's daft to let that resentment fester too much. I am a product of an imperfect history.

The Norman conquest is fascinating. An invading army with a huge amount of luck on their side, and an Anglo-Saxon ruling class who had basically given up. To what extent are the relative idyll of pre-Norman England and the softness in the face of an invader linked? See also pre-Mongol Viking-led Russia in the face of the Mongol invader. A question for Morris Dancer, perhaps?

AlastairMeeks said:

These tweets certainly aren't a great advert for the fraternal Labour party. Regardless of context, the words tweeted are pretty crass.

kle4 said:

Surely one of the most irritating things about by-elections is how even if very safe seats if they are won by the opposition we still have to see the winners go on about what this says about the country, and how the government is being rejected etc etc. All of which can be true, but a win in a safe seat rarely shows that, and whoever does it it comes across as so phony.

Cookie said:

OblitusSumMe said:

OldKingCole said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RoyalBlue said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

If the Repeal side are complaining about how their opponents are campaigning, they know they’re in trouble.

In the USA, opinion on whether Roe v Wade was right has been incredibly stable, unlike the polling on interracial marriage, gay marriage, cannabis legalisation etc. It is a categorically different issue, because to many people, more than one life is involved, and that life has no say in the matter.

Where Great Britain leads, Ireland lags behind:

Legalisation of same-sex relations:
E & W. 1967, Scot. 1980, NI 1982, Ireland 1993

Legalisation of divorce:
UK 1937, Ireland 1997

Legalisation of abortion:
E & W, Sct. 1967, NI illegal, Ireland illegal

The Irish still do - just a mere 100 years later. If only the chips on their shoulders would catch the potato blight.

Not sure whether the English still resent the Normans, but one could argue that the Referendum seems to point that way.

The English have a strange view of their past oppression. The Norman Conquest is pretty much celebrated and I don't anticipate an Indian Raj version of Monty Python's "What did the Romans ever do for us?" sketch any time soon.

Well I still resent the Norman conquest. England would have been a much happier and more successful place without it, that's for sure. I also resent that as an Englishman, my forebears are blamed by the Welsh and Irish for what was effectively a Norman conquest of their countries.

But as I am a descendent of pretty much everyone who was around in Greate Britain 1000 years ago - or at least everyone who had descendents - Norman, English, Scottish, Welsh and presumably somewhere some Irish and continental too- it's daft to let that resentment fester too much. I am a product of an imperfect history.

The Norman conquest is fascinating. An invading army with a huge amount of luck on their side, and an Anglo-Saxon ruling class who had basically given up. To what extent are the relative idyll of pre-Norman England and the softness in the face of an invader linked? See also pre-Mongol Viking-led Russia in the face of the Mongol invader. A question for Morris Dancer, perhaps?

Stark_Dawning said:

Seems Liam has been humiliated. Australia and New Zealand are now sidling up to make trade deals with the EU before of us.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/22/eu-trade-talks-australia-new-zealand-brexit-commonwealth

Of course, there was much resentment when we abandoned them for the Common Market in the 1970s, so perhaps this is a dish best served cold.

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

"Swedish girls fearing forced marriage told to hide spoon in underwear"

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sweden-forcedmarriage-airport/swedish-girls-fearing-forced-marriage-told-to-hide-spoon-in-underwear-idUSKCN1IM1KU

Does anyone else spot the flaw with this being widely reported?

another_richard said:

Tesco Direct closing is unwelcome news:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44211616

But not surprising it was loss making at the prices they were selling at.

CarlottaVance said:

The Poles have concluded that their Presidents plane was brought down in Russia by explosions, not pilot error, as the Russians & Polish Prime Minister Tusk's investigations had:

http://niezalezna.pl/data/TECHNICAL_REPORT.pdf

CarlottaVance said:

The Poles have concluded that their Presidents plane was brought down in Russia by explosions, not pilot error, as the Russians & Polish Prime Minister Tusk's investigations had:

http://niezalezna.pl/data/TECHNICAL_REPORT.pdf

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Poles have concluded that their Presidents plane was brought down in Russia by explosions, not pilot error, as the Russians & Polish Prime Minister Tusk's investigations had:

http://niezalezna.pl/data/TECHNICAL_REPORT.pdf

The Russians would really assassinate a sitting President? Has there been a third party investigation into the crash?

Edit: misread your comment. You said it was brought down in Russia, not by Russia. My bad!

DavidL said:

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Poles have concluded that their Presidents plane was brought down in Russia by explosions, not pilot error, as the Russians & Polish Prime Minister Tusk's investigations had:

http://niezalezna.pl/data/TECHNICAL_REPORT.pdf

The Russians would really assassinate a sitting President? Has there been a third party investigation into the crash?

Edit: misread your comment. You said it was brought down in Russia, not by Russia. My bad!

The report doesn't conclude 'who did it' - but since it rubbishes the previous Russian & Polish reports....

Tusk doesn’t seem to have come out of this very well either.

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Poles have concluded that their Presidents plane was brought down in Russia by explosions, not pilot error, as the Russians & Polish Prime Minister Tusk's investigations had:

http://niezalezna.pl/data/TECHNICAL_REPORT.pdf

The Russians would really assassinate a sitting President? Has there been a third party investigation into the crash?

Edit: misread your comment. You said it was brought down in Russia, not by Russia. My bad!

The report doesn't conclude 'who did it' - but since it rubbishes the previous Russian & Polish reports....

Tusk doesn’t seem to have come out of this very well either.

Isn't this just Poland's version of the 9/11 truther movement, but endorsed by the PiS establishment?

DavidL said:

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Poles have concluded that their Presidents plane was brought down in Russia by explosions, not pilot error, as the Russians & Polish Prime Minister Tusk's investigations had:

http://niezalezna.pl/data/TECHNICAL_REPORT.pdf

The Russians would really assassinate a sitting President? Has there been a third party investigation into the crash?

Edit: misread your comment. You said it was brought down in Russia, not by Russia. My bad!

The report doesn't conclude 'who did it' - but since it rubbishes the previous Russian & Polish reports....

Tusk doesn’t seem to have come out of this very well either.

Isn't this just Poland's version of the 9/11 truther movement, but endorsed by the PiS establishment?

Hard to judge. Could be. But as a non expert it raises a lot of very specific questions and seems to have some good photographic evidence.

Putin and his thugs really could be this stupid.

AndyJS said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Poles have concluded that their Presidents plane was brought down in Russia by explosions, not pilot error, as the Russians & Polish Prime Minister Tusk's investigations had:

http://niezalezna.pl/data/TECHNICAL_REPORT.pdf

I was always very sceptical about the original explanation for the crash.

DavidL said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Theuniondivvie said:

You Anglos

You Anglos?

I guess English isn't your first lingo?

Get with the patois, man.

'Noun
anglo (plural anglos)
An English person or person of English ancestry.'

I had a slightly mad woman from Glasgow giving evidence last week in the Court of Session. I asked, “why did she do that?” She replied, “because she was skint”. She peered at me with that ridiculous horse hair on my head, “Do you know what “skint” means?” The judge admitted that was a fair question.