I think she may be attempting to appeal directly to voters (or at least Constituency Chairmen) to try to put pressure on the more recalcitrant MPs on either side of the debate. And now Labours said they’ll vote against any deal....
I think she knows there can be no deal this Parliament for her interpretation of the referendum result.
An October or February election looks inevitable. In fact, the Tories possible loss of power will itself be pressure on the Tory party to back her.
On the current Survation Gold Standard poll even an early general election would see May stay in power with virtually no change from the last general election result
Wait until you see her manifesto though...
Corbyn made virtually zero net gains at all from the Tories in GE 2017 compared to GE 2015 even after the publication of the Tory manifesto and the disastrous dementia tax which had now been dumped anyway, virtually all his gains from squeezing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters.
I repeat, a general election now would solve nothing and produce virtually the same result as the last one and still leave May in power but short of a working majority.
Labour made a net gain of 22 seats from the Tories in 2017 compared with 2015.
OTOH Corbyn won only four more seats than the poundshop Theresa May Gordon Brown did in 2010.
I think she may be attempting to appeal directly to voters (or at least Constituency Chairmen) to try to put pressure on the more recalcitrant MPs on either side of the debate. And now Labours said they’ll vote against any deal....
I think she knows there can be no deal this Parliament for her interpretation of the referendum result.
An October or February election looks inevitable. In fact, the Tories possible loss of power will itself be pressure on the Tory party to back her.
On the current Survation Gold Standard poll even an early general election would see May stay in power with virtually no change from the last general election result
Wait until you see her manifesto though...
Corbyn made virtually zero net gains at all from the Tories in GE 2017 compared to GE 2015 even after the publication of the Tory manifesto and the disastrous dementia tax which had now been dumped anyway, virtually all his gains from squeezing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters.
I repeat, a general election now would solve nothing and produce virtually the same result as the last one and still leave May in power but short of a working majority.
Labour made a net gain of 22 seats from the Tories in 2017 compared with 2015.
OTOH Corbyn won only four more seats than the poundshop Theresa May Gordon Brown did in 2010.
Indeed so , but in England Corbyn did quite a bit better than Brown in 2010 - and Kinnock in 1992.
"The time for the two-year-long British fudge is coming to an end."
"There is a high level of engagement between Dublin and London at present, despite the poor relationship between the Taoiseach and prime minister Theresa May, especially with Philip Hammond and David Lidington, who are regarded by Irish Ministers as the “grown-ups”. "
I think the Minister doth overegg his pudding a little. I don't think the agreement is anything like as precise as claimed.
And there is still the small matter that the Irish government had previously been negotiating along those lines.
If this does go pear-shaped, no one is going to be more royally buggered - outside the UK - than the Irish - and we have some levers (our own currency) they don't....
We also have choices that the Irish don't necessarily have. Do you think the government can sell a pear shaped Brexit to the public when they are expecting £350 million extra a week?
"The time for the two-year-long British fudge is coming to an end."
"There is a high level of engagement between Dublin and London at present, despite the poor relationship between the Taoiseach and prime minister Theresa May, especially with Philip Hammond and David Lidington, who are regarded by Irish Ministers as the “grown-ups”. "
I think the Minister doth overegg his pudding a little. I don't think the agreement is anything like as precise as claimed.
And there is still the small matter that the Irish government had previously been negotiating along those lines.
If this does go pear-shaped, no one is going to be more royally buggered - outside the UK - than the Irish - and we have some levers (our own currency) they don't....
We also have choices that the Irish don't necessarily have. Do you think the government can sell a pear shaped Brexit to the public when they are expecting £350 million extra a week?
They can print the money, The Irish can't (not that thats a good thing...)
Paragraph 4. ...I will ensure that we take back control of our borders. The public want their own Government to decide on the number of people coming into Britain from across the European Union and that is what we are going to do....
Paragraph 12. ...I am clear that any deal with the EU must protect our precious union and also honour the agreements that were reached in the historic Northern Irish peace process. This means there can be no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland...
You can do 4 ("Government to decide on the number of people coming into Britain from across the European Union") or you can do 12 ("there can be no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland") but you can't do both.
Theresa May. Cannot make a hard decision to save her life.
Actually those are not incompatible. Customs is about goods, and the CTA is about people, so perfectly possible for these to be combined. What is proving less possible is for the open border to the EU to be combined with leaving the CU. It looks to me the DUP get to choose between hard border, and a General election.
Her wording is of course not quite watertight.
What she means is controlling freedom of movement not tourism. Ireland and the U.K. have essentially common visa policies for non EU citizens under the common travel area - and I don't see that changing as its not in Ireland's interests. We don't require tourist visas for over 100 nations outside the EU to come to either nation for 3 months. And if we apply that to citizens of Vanuatu and Nicaragua who can cross freely from the Republic to NI and the UK we are hardly going to require EU nationals to go through border checks.
Freedom to travel is not freedom of movement. Nicaraguans can come here visa free for holidays - they can't work or get welfare though or use the NHS for free.
Predictions about what would happen in the event of a no deal Brexit that assume a hard border are losing sight of the importance of facts on the ground. Theresa May would suddenly find herself facing Gorbachev-like decisions.
"The time for the two-year-long British fudge is coming to an end."
"There is a high level of engagement between Dublin and London at present, despite the poor relationship between the Taoiseach and prime minister Theresa May, especially with Philip Hammond and David Lidington, who are regarded by Irish Ministers as the “grown-ups”. "
I think the Minister doth overegg his pudding a little. I don't think the agreement is anything like as precise as claimed.
And there is still the small matter that the Irish government had previously been negotiating along those lines.
If this does go pear-shaped, no one is going to be more royally buggered - outside the UK - than the Irish - and we have some levers (our own currency) they don't....
We also have choices that the Irish don't necessarily have. Do you think the government can sell a pear shaped Brexit to the public when they are expecting £350 million extra a week?
By the time the transition ends and we supposedly leave in full the NHS budget will already be more than £350m a week higher than it was on 23 June 2916.
Predictions about what would happen in the event of a no deal Brexit that assume a hard border are losing sight of the importance of facts on the ground. Theresa May would suddenly find herself facing Gorbachev-like decisions.
Who is going to impose the hard border - the Irish on either side don't want it and the UK doesnt want it.
Will the EU send in its EU army and Brussels officials to impose one as its their SM and CU rules and regulations that would potentially be being infringed.
Whose job would it be - and what happens if the UK and RoI do nothing?
Oddly Ireland and the U.K/NI Had a common travel area and customs controls from 1922 to 1992 - a whole seventy years without walls and barbed wire and 24 hour customs posts in Ulster. Seemed to work OK - even during the troubles.
"The time for the two-year-long British fudge is coming to an end."
"There is a high level of engagement between Dublin and London at present, despite the poor relationship between the Taoiseach and prime minister Theresa May, especially with Philip Hammond and David Lidington, who are regarded by Irish Ministers as the “grown-ups”. "
I think the Minister doth overegg his pudding a little. I don't think the agreement is anything like as precise as claimed.
And there is still the small matter that the Irish government had previously been negotiating along those lines.
If this does go pear-shaped, no one is going to be more royally buggered - outside the UK - than the Irish - and we have some levers (our own currency) they don't....
We also have choices that the Irish don't necessarily have. Do you think the government can sell a pear shaped Brexit to the public when they are expecting £350 million extra a week?
By the time the transition ends and we supposedly leave in full the NHS budget will already be more than £350m a week higher than it was on 23 June 2916.
Um. If we don't agree the Irish backstop there won't be a transition period. As things stand.
The government can always find more money for the NHS, even in the context of a sharply reduced overall tax take due to Brexit. It can hike taxes and reduce spending on other things to cover the increase on healthcare. But this doesn't fit into the narrative, as peddled by Theresa May as recently as this morning:
“I will ensure that we take back control of our money. Brexit means there will be billions of pounds that we used to send to Brussels which we will now be able to spend on domestic priorities, including our National Health Service.”
PS suggestions that nominal increases in inflated currency would count as NHS increases are disingenuous in the extreme.
Predictions about what would happen in the event of a no deal Brexit that assume a hard border are losing sight of the importance of facts on the ground. Theresa May would suddenly find herself facing Gorbachev-like decisions.
Who is going to impose the hard border - the Irish on either side don't want it and the UK doesnt want it.
Will the EU send in its EU army and Brussels officials to impose one as its their SM and CU rules and regulations that would potentially be being infringed.
We should focus more on how goods will flow through the Channel Tunnel on day one of 'no deal'. The government would have its hands full making sure there was food on the shelves to worry about asserting its sovereignty over Northern Ireland.
Predictions about what would happen in the event of a no deal Brexit that assume a hard border are losing sight of the importance of facts on the ground. Theresa May would suddenly find herself facing Gorbachev-like decisions.
Who is going to impose the hard border - the Irish on either side don't want it and the UK doesnt want it.
Will the EU send in its EU army and Brussels officials to impose one as its their SM and CU rules and regulations that would potentially be being infringed.
Whose job would it be - and what happens if the UK and RoI do nothing?
Oddly Ireland and the U.K/NI Had a common travel area and customs controls from 1922 to 1992 - a whole seventy years without walls and barbed wire and 24 hour customs posts in Ulster. Seemed to work OK - even during the troubles.
It worked previously because the Irish joined the EEC similtaneously with the UK. It is going to be different if one of the pair is in the EU (or CU) while the other is not. Fortunately the Irish are much less dependent on us nowadays, as we are the destination for 15% of their exports by value in 2015 compared with 90% in 1970. They do get 38% of their imports from us.
Whether wanted or not, in the event of No Deal Brexit, there would be customs posts.
"The time for the two-year-long British fudge is coming to an end."
"There is a high level of engagement between Dublin and London at present, despite the poor relationship between the Taoiseach and prime minister Theresa May, especially with Philip Hammond and David Lidington, who are regarded by Irish Ministers as the “grown-ups”. "
I think the Minister doth overegg his pudding a little.
Well, he is Deputy TD and responsible for the Irish governments Brexit position, and closely aligned with Barnier, so perhaps carries some weight in these things:
"The time for the two-year-long British fudge is coming to an end."
"There is a high level of engagement between Dublin and London at present, despite the poor relationship between the Taoiseach and prime minister Theresa May, especially with Philip Hammond and David Lidington, who are regarded by Irish Ministers as the “grown-ups”. "
I think the Minister doth overegg his pudding a little.
Well, he is Deputy TD and responsible for the Irish governments Brexit position, and closely aligned with Barnier, so perhaps carries some weight in these things:
I think she may be attempting to appeal directly to voters (or at least Constituency Chairmen) to try to put pressure on the more recalcitrant MPs on either side of the debate. And now Labours said they’ll vote against any deal....
I think she knows there can be no deal this Parliament for her interpretation of the referendum result.
An October or February election looks inevitable. In fact, the Tories possible loss of power will itself be pressure on the Tory party to back her.
On the current Survation Gold Standard poll even an early general election would see May stay in power with virtually no change from the last general election result
Wait until you see her manifesto though...
Corbyn made virtually zero net gains at all from the Tories in GE 2017 compared to GE 2015 even after the publication of the Tory manifesto and the disastrous dementia tax which had now been dumped anyway, virtually all his gains from squeezing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters.
I repeat, a general election now would solve nothing and produce virtually the same result as the last one and still leave May in power but short of a working majority.
Labour made a net gain of 22 seats from the Tories in 2017 compared with 2015.
OTOH Corbyn won only four more seats than the poundshop Theresa May Gordon Brown did in 2010.
Indeed so , but in England Corbyn did quite a bit better than Brown in 2010 - and Kinnock in 1992.
Conversely, Cameron won only 1 Scottish seat, whilst May won 13.
Who is going to impose the hard border - the Irish on either side don't want it and the UK doesnt want it.
Whose job would it be - and what happens if the UK and RoI do nothing?
I genuinely don't know. I go with the @DavidHerdson (pbuh) position: that both countries will ignore the situation. But it has to be pointed out that this is incompatible with the claim of "taking back control", since control will conspicuously not be imposed on that border.
I think she may be attempting to appeal directly to voters (or at least Constituency Chairmen) to try to put pressure on the more recalcitrant MPs on either side of the debate. And now Labours said they’ll vote against any deal....
I think she knows there can be no deal this Parliament for her interpretation of the referendum result.
An October or February election looks inevitable. In fact, the Tories possible loss of power will itself be pressure on the Tory party to back her.
On the current Survation Gold Standard poll even an early general election would see May stay in power with virtually no change from the last general election result
Wait until you see her manifesto though...
Corbyn made virtually zero net gains at all from the Tories in GE 2017 compared to GE 2015 even after the publication of the Tory manifesto and the disastrous dementia tax which had now been dumped anyway, virtually all his gains from squeezing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters.
I repeat, a general election now would solve nothing and produce virtually the same result as the last one and still leave May in power but short of a working majority.
Labour made a net gain of 22 seats from the Tories in 2017 compared with 2015.
OTOH Corbyn won only four more seats than the poundshop Theresa May Gordon Brown did in 2010.
Indeed so , but in England Corbyn did quite a bit better than Brown in 2010 - and Kinnock in 1992.
So what. The election covers Scotland as well and if you fail their, as Corbyn has done, then that's bad
I think she may be attempting to appeal directly to voters (or at least Constituency Chairmen) to try to put pressure on the more recalcitrant MPs on either side of the debate. And now Labours said they’ll vote against any deal....
I think she knows there can be no deal this Parliament for her interpretation of the referendum result.
An October or February election looks inevitable. In fact, the Tories possible loss of power will itself be pressure on the Tory party to back her.
On the current Survation Gold Standard poll even an early general election would see May stay in power with virtually no change from the last general election result
Wait until you see her manifesto though...
Corbyn made virtually zero net gains at all from the Tories in GE 2017 compared to GE 2015 even after the publication of the Tory manifesto and the disastrous dementia tax which had now been dumped anyway, virtually all his gains from squeezing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters.
I repeat, a general election now would solve nothing and produce virtually the same result as the last one and still leave May in power but short of a working majority.
Labour made a net gain of 22 seats from the Tories in 2017 compared with 2015.
OTOH Corbyn won only four more seats than the poundshop Theresa May Gordon Brown did in 2010.
Indeed so , but in England Corbyn did quite a bit better than Brown in 2010 - and Kinnock in 1992.
So what. The election covers Scotland as well and if you fail their, as Corbyn has done, then that's bad
But Corbyn did take back a dozen or so Scottish seats, and was within a whisker of many more. Itt was the SNP losing to Ruth Davidson that kept May in no 10.
Paragraph 4. ...I will ensure that we take back control of our borders. The public want their own Government to decide on the number of people coming into Britain from across the European Union and that is what we are going to do....
Paragraph 12. ...I am clear that any deal with the EU must protect our precious union and also honour the agreements that were reached in the historic Northern Irish peace process. This means there can be no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland...
You can do 4 ("Government to decide on the number of people coming into Britain from across the European Union") or you can do 12 ("there can be no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland") but you can't do both.
Theresa May. Cannot make a hard decision to save her life.
Actually those are not incompatible. Customs is about goods, and the CTA is about people, so perfectly possible for these to be combined. What is proving less possible is for the open border to the EU to be combined with leaving the CU. It looks to me the DUP get to choose between hard border, and a General election.
Customs may well be about goods, but May is talking about people. She states that HMG will decide on the number of people coming into the UK, then states that there will be no hard NI/IRE border. Can't do both.
Incidentally, a very pedantic reading of her blog post indicates that she's only going to control people coming into Britain, not the UK (was this accidental or deliberate?).
So on that basis, it's a soft border between NI &IRE, a hard border between GB & NI, a hard border between GB & IRE. It's a solution, I suppose...
"The time for the two-year-long British fudge is coming to an end."
"There is a high level of engagement between Dublin and London at present, despite the poor relationship between the Taoiseach and prime minister Theresa May, especially with Philip Hammond and David Lidington, who are regarded by Irish Ministers as the “grown-ups”. "
I think the Minister doth overegg his pudding a little.
Well, he is Deputy TD and responsible for the Irish governments Brexit position, and closely aligned with Barnier, so perhaps carries some weight in these things:
In which case I would suggest Eire should be prepared for the hard border which would be the results of there being no withdrawal agreement.
How many days do you think the UK would last after a no deal Brexit?
After the collapse of the SNP vote in the post Brexit general election, the Tory and Labour dominance in Wales and in Northern Ireland the DUP remaining the largest party a long time.
Though of course May has already agreed enough regulatory alignment by the UK with the EU to avoid a hard border anyway
I think she may be attempting to appeal directly to voters (or at least Constituency Chairmen) to try to put pressure on the more recalcitrant MPs on either side of the debate. And now Labours said they’ll vote against any deal....
I think she knows there can be no deal this Parliament for her interpretation of the referendum result.
An October or February election looks inevitable. In fact, the Tories possible loss of power will itself be pressure on the Tory party to back her.
On the current Survation Gold Standard poll even an early general election would see May stay in power with virtually no change from the last general election result
Wait until you see her manifesto though...
Corbyn made virtually zero net gains at all from the Tories in GE 2017 compared to GE 2015 even after the publication of the Tory manifesto and the disastrous dementia tax which had now been dumped anyway, virtually all his gains from squeezing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters.
I repeat, a general election now would solve nothing and produce virtually the same result as the last one and still leave May in power but short of a working majority.
Labour made a net gain of 22 seats from the Tories in 2017 compared with 2015.
OTOH Corbyn won only four more seats than the poundshop Theresa May Gordon Brown did in 2010.
Indeed so , but in England Corbyn did quite a bit better than Brown in 2010 - and Kinnock in 1992.
So what. The election covers Scotland as well and if you fail their, as Corbyn has done, then that's bad
But Corbyn did take back a dozen or so Scottish seats, and was within a whisker of many more. Itt was the SNP losing to Ruth Davidson that kept May in no 10.
Predictions about what would happen in the event of a no deal Brexit that assume a hard border are losing sight of the importance of facts on the ground. Theresa May would suddenly find herself facing Gorbachev-like decisions.
Who is going to impose the hard border - the Irish on either side don't want it and the UK doesnt want it.
Will the EU send in its EU army and Brussels officials to impose one as its their SM and CU rules and regulations that would potentially be being infringed.
We should focus more on how goods will flow through the Channel Tunnel on day one of 'no deal'. The government would have its hands full making sure there was food on the shelves to worry about asserting its sovereignty over Northern Ireland.
I thought the shelves were supposed to be empty of food in 2017 err in 2018 when the crops weren't harvested ?
Predictions about what would happen in the event of a no deal Brexit that assume a hard border are losing sight of the importance of facts on the ground. Theresa May would suddenly find herself facing Gorbachev-like decisions.
Who is going to impose the hard border - the Irish on either side don't want it and the UK doesnt want it.
Will the EU send in its EU army and Brussels officials to impose one as its their SM and CU rules and regulations that would potentially be being infringed.
We should focus more on how goods will flow through the Channel Tunnel on day one of 'no deal'. The government would have its hands full making sure there was food on the shelves to worry about asserting its sovereignty over Northern Ireland.
I thought the shelves were supposed to be empty of food in 2017 err in 2018 when the crops weren't harvested ?
You know full well that William will be sitting there in 2040, explaining what might've been if we hadn't left
Predictions about what would happen in the event of a no deal Brexit that assume a hard border are losing sight of the importance of facts on the ground. Theresa May would suddenly find herself facing Gorbachev-like decisions.
Who is going to impose the hard border - the Irish on either side don't want it and the UK doesnt want it.
Will the EU send in its EU army and Brussels officials to impose one as its their SM and CU rules and regulations that would potentially be being infringed.
We should focus more on how goods will flow through the Channel Tunnel on day one of 'no deal'. The government would have its hands full making sure there was food on the shelves to worry about asserting its sovereignty over Northern Ireland.
I thought the shelves were supposed to be empty of food in 2017 err in 2018 when the crops weren't harvested ?
We won't even be able to afford food, given we lost the City of London to Frankfurt after we didn't join the Euro.
"The time for the two-year-long British fudge is coming to an end."
"There is a high level of engagement between Dublin and London at present, despite the poor relationship between the Taoiseach and prime minister Theresa May, especially with Philip Hammond and David Lidington, who are regarded by Irish Ministers as the “grown-ups”. "
I think the Minister doth overegg his pudding a little.
Well, he is Deputy TD and responsible for the Irish governments Brexit position, and closely aligned with Barnier, so perhaps carries some weight in these things:
Paragraph 4. ...I will ensure that we take back control of our borders. The public want their own Government to decide on the number of people coming into Britain from across the European Union and that is what we are going to do....
Paragraph 12. ...I am clear that any deal with the EU must protect our precious union and also honour the agreements that were reached in the historic Northern Irish peace process. This means there can be no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland...
You can do 4 ("Government to decide on the number of people coming into Britain from across the European Union") or you can do 12 ("there can be no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland") but you can't do both.
Theresa May. Cannot make a hard decision to save her life.
Actually those are not incompatible. Customs is about goods, and the CTA is about people, so perfectly possible for these to be combined. What is proving less possible is for the open border to the EU to be combined with leaving the CU. It looks to me the DUP get to choose between hard border, and a General election.
Customs may well be about goods, but May is talking about people. She states that HMG will decide on the number of people coming into the UK, then states that there will be no hard NI/IRE border. Can't do both.
Of course you can do both. Having an open border is no bigger problem for immigration than people coming here on holidays.
"The time for the two-year-long British fudge is coming to an end."
"There is a high level of engagement between Dublin and London at present, despite the poor relationship between the Taoiseach and prime minister Theresa May, especially with Philip Hammond and David Lidington, who are regarded by Irish Ministers as the “grown-ups”. "
I think the Minister doth overegg his pudding a little.
Well, he is Deputy TD and responsible for the Irish governments Brexit position, and closely aligned with Barnier, so perhaps carries some weight in these things:
Comments
https://twitter.com/daily_politics/status/995614890269159425
What she means is controlling freedom of movement not tourism. Ireland and the U.K. have essentially common visa policies for non EU citizens under the common travel area - and I don't see that changing as its not in Ireland's interests. We don't require tourist visas for over 100 nations outside the EU to come to either nation for 3 months. And if we apply that to citizens of Vanuatu and Nicaragua who can cross freely from the Republic to NI and the UK we are hardly going to require EU nationals to go through border checks.
Freedom to travel is not freedom of movement. Nicaraguans can come here visa free for holidays - they can't work or get welfare though or use the NHS for free.
Will the EU send in its EU army and Brussels officials to impose one as its their SM and CU rules and regulations that would potentially be being infringed.
Whose job would it be - and what happens if the UK and RoI do nothing?
Oddly Ireland and the U.K/NI Had a common travel area and customs controls from 1922 to 1992 - a whole seventy years without walls and barbed wire and 24 hour customs posts in Ulster. Seemed to work OK - even during the troubles.
The government can always find more money for the NHS, even in the context of a sharply reduced overall tax take due to Brexit. It can hike taxes and reduce spending on other things to cover the increase on healthcare. But this doesn't fit into the narrative, as peddled by Theresa May as recently as this morning:
“I will ensure that we take back control of our money. Brexit means there will be billions of pounds that we used to send to Brussels which we will now be able to spend on domestic priorities, including our National Health Service.”
PS suggestions that nominal increases in inflated currency would count as NHS increases are disingenuous in the extreme.
Whether wanted or not, in the event of No Deal Brexit, there would be customs posts.
'13:56
GOAL Hibernian 3-5 Rangers
Josh Windass'
For English viewers, this is roughly approximate to Spurs Spursing it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dmlXBBC6J8
Incidentally fwiw:
https://twitter.com/MsLadyPhyll/status/995638463897710592?s=19
Incidentally, a very pedantic reading of her blog post indicates that she's only going to control people coming into Britain, not the UK (was this accidental or deliberate?).
So on that basis, it's a soft border between NI &IRE, a hard border between GB & NI, a hard border between GB & IRE. It's a solution, I suppose...
Though of course May has already agreed enough regulatory alignment by the UK with the EU to avoid a hard border anyway
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