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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Going nuclear
ICYMI: Courtesy of the always resourceful @EIAgov, I got data back to 1949 of U.S. *net* petroleum imports (that's crude oil and refined products). The latest forecast is for 2019 net imports to drop to 1.5m b/d — lowest since 1958. #OOTT Full story here: https://t.co/itjliIuOzT pic.twitter.com/LXz1GvmULM
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(I would add a 'First', except PB's so borken atm that I guess there are several comments before this one. PB can probably do without my 'contributions', but the thread below the line is becoming essentially unreadable. Please, OGH, you are our only hope)
I mean, strategically it's clearly in the EU's interests to maintain a united front with fellow liberal democracies but everyone knows Trump is only opposed to this deal because it was signed by Obama instead of him, so this shouldn't particularly turn into a grand geopolitical realignment or anything. If the Americans won't sell Iranian people Boeings for a while, all the better for Airbus.
If Airbus cannot sell in the American market, that is a catastrophe for them.
It's not just about whether America will deal with Iran, it's what punishment they will inflict on others for doing so.
And as far as Trump is concerned at any rate there’s an concordant policy of ‘an enemy of Israel is my enemy, too!’.
Iran's unhappy history goes back even further. Iran was ruled by foreigners from the time of the Arab conquest, for hundreds of years, until Shah Ismail became ruler.
But for the last 50/60 years your point would be valid.
F1: trying to find a bet for the race. Hmm.
In general the US can impose sanctions on international companies that trade with places it disapproves of. Businesses that do no business with the US might be tempted.
On the subject of the article, maintaining OK relations with Iran is sensible diplomacy, especially if you have problems with Russia.
They are also reluctant to be perceived as anti-semitic by taking a more neutral and detached view of Israel. Just look at the abuse Corbyn has recently received. The treatment of Israel is reflected in the bizarre outcome of the Eurovision 2018 song contest - the winner is not European in any way (by birthplace, residence, religion, ethnicity or language).
Betting PostF1: pre-race will go up fairly soon, but here's the interesting bit:
backed Verstappen/Ricciardo to not be classified at 4 each. Not heroic, but there we are.
I also think the 101 (131 with boost) on Grosjean, Sirotkin, Ericsson and Hartley to all not be classified is worth a tiny sum. The first two have 50% DNF rates, the latter two 25% DNF rates, which I think gives a one in 64 chance of it occurring, all else being equal.
Edited extra bit: sad to hear of Dame Tessa Jowell's passing.
It is an excellent article. The only nitpick I’d make is that it’s not altogether clear that the US producers need high oil prices any longer. The cost of fracking has dropped dramatically over the last decade as the technology has improved.
Excellent thread, as usual (when not on you know what...)
(It’s clearly slanted towards the downside, but seems to me quite near the mark.)
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2018/may/13/teacher-burnout-shortages-recruitment-problems-budget-cuts
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2018/05/spain-pre-race-2018.html
The US is being very shortsighted creating openings for the nascent Chinese aviation industry, which has the prospect of becoming a real rival to the existing duopoly within a decade.
Excellent and insightful piece Alastair.
I had actually drafted a thread header on the current mess in education. Not sure whether OGH would be interested though as I couldn't see any particular betting angle in it.
Edit: people may find this of interest:
https://www.tes.com/news/investigation-how-teachers-are-cutting-workload-themselves
There is another article on Damien Hinds' initiative (which basically will shut OFSTED if he follows through on it, which would be a major help in raising standards) but I can't find it at the moment.
Secrecy and privacy are over rated and come with many negative side effects and unintended consequences.
I tend to agree with philiph, but it can be hard to unlearn the habits of a lifetime. And it’s not a choice to be forced on anyone.
https://www.tes.com/news/long-read-why-hinds-suddenly-letting-teachers-get-job
You have to login to read it but you can log in with both Google and Facebook rather than creating a separate account.
If he's sincere it may make a difference. I just doubt if he will get it past the DfES without going for the Wainwright option.
https://youtu.be/0DIy-C4cQ-M
Anecdotally a few weeks ago I visited a friend at a school in Telford that OFSTED keep putting into special measures. As a result, they all have to do 2 hours of staff training a week, hold three staff meetings a week at an hour each, and a number of staff are off with stress so class sizes have rocketed above 35.
Strangely the quality of teaching has declined and most books are unmarked.
Yet that is the reality of OFSTED interventions - making bad far, far worse.
OFSTED intervention is the very definition of removal of autonomy.
Stress leave is a necessary escape route for some (and I have known at least two good teachers whose careers have been ended by stress), but naturally increases the burden on the rest.
Anyway, got to get going...
What happens if Airbus sells to the Russian or Chinese government, who then sells on to Iran, at a profit ?
https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/995549106226556928?s=21
I am not sure what is her strategy. Does she really think she can implement policies which the EU, other political parties and indeed even the loony section of her own party and majority in the Brexit cabinet have rejected ?
Relevant to this thread
This week the cabinet are split, there is talk about GEs and a sense that it might not happen. A few weeks ago it was full steam ahead, with May recovering her position somewhat since the 2017 election.
Hard to know what is really going on, beyond that with the clock ticking, they really should be further along than they are.
An October or February election looks inevitable. In fact, the Tories possible loss of power will itself be pressure on the Tory party to back her.
No likely gain from it.
I read it as needs general acceptance of longer transition, in return for the MaxFac option - which is politically and practically the only viable option now.
Condolences to her family and friends.
Bizarrely I have a (slight) personal connection to the other person whose death was announced today (and for whom no condolences are warranted): Dennis Nielsen. I lived 4 doors up from him in Cranley Gardens when he was caught and remember being interviewed by the police, as all neighbours were, about what we had seen, if anything. From our back garden we could see the tent the police had erected in his garden as they carried out their grisly digging.
Once the trial was over the local estate agents sent a flyer round saying that we shouldn't worry as they were positive this wouldn't adversely affect house prices in the area.
Sad to see another IS attack in Paris. It has become so commonplace, sadly, that it is scarcely even worth noting these days.
And thanks to Alistair for an interesting article.
May doesn't seem to have the votes for what she wants to do. Nor, it woukd seem, do her ERG opponents. Unless she finds something labour can back and consensus is reached, which is not likely, we're in stalemate. And unless labour switch to remain, I don't know how that stalemate is overcome.
As WTO Brexit is default next March, an A50 extension looks likely to be requested by our government.
It would have been much better having an all party Brexit committee if any agreement is to have widespread support. As it is, it is surrounded by enemies. May craves power, but seemingly without purpose.
The problem is I don't think she has that in her, nor is she certain to win (on the contrary in fact), and I don't see how Boris and co can remain in the cabinet after this if she did. Added to that if it is just a proxy battle she'll look even stupider when that becomes apparent.
So I'm genuinely baffled.
The question is how much cost for Brexit is too much. I don't regard any price to be worth paying.
She could have carried it out, if she rather unnecessarily did not draw her own red lines. She could live with a FTA which would look very similar to being in the single market with the UK paying an annual sum not entirely dissimilar to current contributions. The UK could also be in a "customs partnership" with the EU but not in the customs union.
She would then claim the UK had left the EU.
The only problem was created by the British people on June 8th 2017. Not only did they not give her a comfortable majority to ignore the loonies but she is now beholden to the other loonies across the water, the DUP. You can now see why a large majority was needed.
But the average person would say, 0.3% ? Pah!
There is an interesting omission in his otherwise excellent summary of the 20th century history of Western involvement in Persia/Iran which is the Iran/Iraq war. This is probably the most devastating war since WW2 and resulted in over a million dead. It was a war instigated, sponsored and supported by the US who had advisors embedded with the Iraqi military providing real time intelligence to allow them to more effectively deploy chemical weapons.
It is this more than anything which drives the Iranian desire for security and safety from the US and its proxies in the region - most notably Saudi Arabia. The US are the aggressors in this particular fight and we should not be supporting them.
Did she have to listen to or instruct Nick Timothy to add the ill-fated dementia tax paragraphs ? It was cockiness on her part which did her in the end.
Thankfully, for the rest of us.
If she says, "You can trust me to deliver.", clearly that group doesn't trust her to deliver.
There's nothing here for Remainers or the small but important group of pragmatic Leavers. Nor is there any message for the European Union that she is supposedly negotiating with, beyond the impression that she is completely unreliable.
Less of that and more of growth from rising productivity, wealth creation, affordable housing and living within our means would be a good thing irrespective of what the nominal GDP figures said.
To the US, the basic rule has nothing to do with democracy. It is to do with Israel.
A more open attitude to death, to its prelude and to its consequences would, I feel, do a great deal to help the mental well being of both individuals and society as a whole.
Both US oil imports as a percentage of GDP and US oil imports from the Middle East would be even lower.
It is impressive how the US has weaned itself off its dependency on oil imports from unstable regions.
I very much doubt that the Scottish courts will interfere in such a political decision, no matter how irrational. But we really need to rethink our position on this.
- those who thought there would be a benefit;
- those who thought it would be a wash
- those who thought any hit would be to other people
For Remainers, the reverse was true. They almost all believed there would be an economic hit.