politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The last LE2018 post: How the main academic election predictio
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The last LE2018 post: How the main academic election predictions did
A key part of election analysis each year are the two academic seat projections which seek to project party Council gains and losses. These play a big part in setting the media narrative over party expectations.
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Mark Pack has taken a look at how opposition Labour leaders do in the Thrasher & Rallings national vote share calculations post LE.
Who comes top and who comes bottom?
You get one guess.....
https://www.markpack.org.uk/154799/labour-opposition-leaders-local-elections-record/
https://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/992744992715223040
"-335 seats to +169" is not a forecast that carries any value or useful information whatsoever.
"Professions Colin Rallings ...."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5701623/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-time-Nonce-Finder-General-dock.html
Meanwhile, in Nuneaton, Morley, Newcastle -U-L, Dudley etc the trend is all blue. Guess where a general election is won and lost?
Its a very good point that Mike makes about the Councils that had all their councillors up. It may be that that fluke significantly exaggerated the Lib Dem performance since almost all their gains were in those 3 Councils masking modest losses elsewhere.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html
On topic, I don’t think R&T did too badly.
Yesterday it transiored that during my celebrations Eldest Grandson, playing something with his uncles and cousins had fallen and twisted his knee badly. Went to Southend A7E on Monday and had a similar experience. Went at 9am; patched up and home and recuperating (asleep) by 11.30..
It’s not all bad!
Hopefully be a bit cooler tonight.
GP says I need an X-ray. Local hospital has a walk-in X-ray service. No appointment necessary. No waiting. No parking charge because it was so quick.
Amazing.
A week later return to GP for results. He doesn't have the X-ray. He has a written report from a consultant at the country trust hospital (not the hospital with the X-ray machine)
Instant X-ray. Great.
Emailing the image to a consultant who has never examined the patient, to report to a GP who has never seen the image, can't be efficient.
https://twitter.com/pollycurtis/status/993743563677675520
It isn't up to Labour to make the first move.
Seems OK to me.
I’ve had an MRI scan recently to see if my developing deafness is due to more than ‘just’ fair wear and tear”. Admittedly that was at request of local ENT specialist...... to whom I’d been referred by audiologist, not GP. Three weeks later letter from consultant. All OK.
Why would I have needed to see a GP?
We are finally seeing the consequences of an extended period of falling real wages on demand. The M1 figures are a consequence of that. The important thing for the UK is get output back in line with supply. If we can increase exports to offset this fall in demand this will be good for UK plc in the medium term, even if it is unpleasant in the short term. Unfortunately, I do not think we will be the only country that suffers from this. Much of the EZ is showing less promise than it did in January.
The local entrepreneur who did that has died, so we don’t here much about it now.
If the GP wanted a second opinion, you might be right, but that was not a requirement in this case.
The same thing happened with an ultrasound. The GP wanted it done, but never got to see the raw image data, only somebody else's interpretation of it (so it's not really a second opinion; it's 2 different opinions based on 2 different data sets. 1 examination, 1 image. Can't be the best solution...)
Population of Wandsworth:
2001 260,383
2011 306,995
2016 316,100 est
Perhaps that has something to do with Wandsworth's 'homelessness crisis' ?
The middle classes and professions are currently the nation's heaviest drinkers
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/uk-most-frequent-drinkers-lawyers-doctors-city-professionals-alcohol-consumption-statistics-a8330741.html
The minimum pricing, at the level it is, won’t have a lot of effect except at the bottom of the market, you’d need to fill a Transit full of cheap lager or pish ‘whisky’ to cover the cost of the trip from say Glasgow to Carlisle. Not good if you’re the manager of Haddows in Gretna though.
Also, St Ives should be on your list.
My parents are currently being let down by delays in getting cancer treatment for my dad. My mum is beside herself with worry.
There's only two ways in which the UK can get growth:
1) Export led requiring low sterling and growth in other countries
2) Borrow and spend ie stealing growth from the future
We see the social consequences on our streets and in Scotland at least it is an issue. We drink significantly more than the English on average and it is one of the factors that reduces our life expectancies (its also a lot easier to do something about than the depressing weather and lack of sunlight for months on end). There are arguments both ways but on balance I came down in support of minimum pricing.
Even now they are still waiting for an appointment to go in for a biopsy that will finally determined what is wrong with her.
(I've already got my coat)
https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/05/black-cube-admits-it-targeted-obama-aides-wives/
Are there any British laws to stop this sort if harassment?
What I am finding mildly irritating at the moment is people "finding" these long term, chronic problems in our economy and trying to claim that they have something to do with Brexit. The detail of these problems evolving whilst we were in the SM seems to completely pass them by.
So the motivation is bad, but the proposal may be good, it depends on how it was proposed to be implemented. You'd need a lengthy warning period for a start.
start with HP sauce
The cabinet still not decided is more of a problem, but labour are either divided or incredibly cynical over it.
Ian Dunt - @IanDunt: He wants to spend countless millions replicating a project we are already invested in. He calls it... you guessed it... "rediscovering our bulldog spirit".