If The Three Brexiteers resign from the Cabinet today what does May do?
A leadership challenge would ensue.
Indeed.
And it would not make a jot of difference. You cannot alter the basic law of mathematics. There are not the votes in the HOC or HOL to approve a hard Brexit
So you get rid of Theresa May and then change the numbers by having another general election under a new Con leader.
It's not rocket science.
There's an assumption that whatever is thrown at Brexiteers and Brexit voters they just have suck it up. That assumption is false.
The local elections looked like the start of Brexit voters beginning to reassert their authority - Time for Brexiteers at Westminster to do the same.
Did you miss the 2017 general election ?
The one that was going to crush the saboteurs.
It's hard to believe Con could run another election as appalling as 2017...
Then close your eyes and lie back and think of a general election campaign fronted by Boris or JRM.
Boris won in London (twice) before contributing to LEAVE's victory (yes LEAVE did actually win the referendum... Not that you would believe it from Westminster's behaviour)
That was then this is now.
Boris is damaged goods. Thanks to Gove.
Boris is damaged goods thanks to Ken Livingstone -- every single one of Boris's rivals during the next leadership campaign will be touring the tea-rooms with Boris's sometimes unfortunate remarks on race helpfully printed out and asking backbenchers if they want to risk Tories becoming embroiled in the sort of row Labour got into over antisemitism.
If The Three Brexiteers resign from the Cabinet today what does May do?
A leadership challenge would ensue.
Indeed.
And it would not make a jot of difference. You cannot alter the basic law of mathematics. There are not the votes in the HOC or HOL to approve a hard Brexit
So you get rid of Theresa May and then change the numbers by having another general election under a new Con leader.
It's not rocket science.
There's an assumption that whatever is thrown at Brexiteers and Brexit voters they just have suck it up. That assumption is false.
The local elections looked like the start of Brexit voters beginning to reassert their authority - Time for Brexiteers at Westminster to do the same.
Did you miss the 2017 general election ?
The one that was going to crush the saboteurs.
if only you had the common sense of Dave to say what has happened has happened and there's no point crying over spilt milk.
Get on with life as it is not how you thought it would be
I’ve moved on. My view has consistently the sooner we Leave the sooner we rejoin.
As my day job is 99% Brexit related I’m intrigued by it all.
I cant see us rejoining in the short-medium term, and any terms offered would be on the same terms as new entrants.
personally I think that will be hard to sell
If it is viagra hard Brexit with supermarkets running out of food, planes grounded et al then it’ll happen.
Who do you think will get the blame for that?
It started in Bruxelles will be as effective as the great financial crisis started in America meme by Gordon Brown.
People like David Davis who thought Brexit would be as easy as the Anglo-Zanzibar War will get the blame.
No; papers like the Heil, the Sun, the Torygraph and (possibly) the Express will fail to find that we’ve done anything wrong at all; we’ll always have been completely reasonable.
It’ll be those nasty people in Brussels and Dublin who have failed to accept our entirely reasonable and practical proposals.
It’s Roundheads and Cavaliers time all over again!
With less than a year to go until the UK leaves the EU, the real divide is no longer between former Leavers and Remainers. Rather it is between those who, whichever way they voted, now take an optimistic view of Britain’s future and those who are entrenched in a negative outlook. While the pessimists are entitled to their view, the danger is that their continued disparagement of Britain’s prospects is itself a source of damage — reducing economic confidence and raising doubts for foreign investors. It is time we all embraced a realistic but positive stance on long-term opportunities.
Which is completely right. Those who see Brexit as an excercise in damage mitigation are likely to see that result. Those who see it as a global opportunity for growth are more likely to see that result. Which do we want?
Those who see matters accurately. Leavers are remarkably sparse on details on "how" impairing Britain's relations with the EU is going to improve relations with other countries. They just hate the EU so much, they don't care and assume it will happen automatically.
If The Three Brexiteers resign from the Cabinet today what does May do?
A leadership challenge would ensue.
Indeed.
And it would not make a jot of difference. You cannot alter the basic law of mathematics. There are not the votes in the HOC or HOL to approve a hard Brexit
So you get rid of Theresa May and then change the numbers by having another general election under a new Con leader.
It's not rocket science.
There's an assumption that whatever is thrown at Brexiteers and Brexit voters they just have suck it up. That assumption is false.
The local elections looked like the start of Brexit voters beginning to reassert their authority - Time for Brexiteers at Westminster to do the same.
Did you miss the 2017 general election ?
The one that was going to crush the saboteurs.
if only you had the common sense of Dave to say what has happened has happened and there's no point crying over spilt milk.
Get on with life as it is not how you thought it would be
I’ve moved on. My view has consistently the sooner we Leave the sooner we rejoin.
As my day job is 99% Brexit related I’m intrigued by it all.
I cant see us rejoining in the short-medium term, and any terms offered would be on the same terms as new entrants.
personally I think that will be hard to sell
Depends on how we Leave.
If it is viagra hard Brexit with supermarkets running out of food, planes grounded et al then it’ll happen.
If it is the long goodbye with a decade long transition then rejoining it won’t happen in the medium term.
oh dear, youre just so addicted to Project Fear
which do you think will cost more jobs ?
Greg Clarks scaremongering about Brexit or Greg Clark refusing to stop Melrose asset stripping GKN and allowing an oligopoly in the supermarket sector ?
Within a few months Project Fear could be Project Reality.
I did warn you at the time.
chortle
I notice you decline to answer
so far the only part of Project Fear that has come true is Stuart Rose's threat that if we vote Leave wages will start to rise
If The Three Brexiteers resign from the Cabinet today what does May do?
A leadership challenge would ensue.
Indeed.
And it would not make a jot of difference. You cannot alter the basic law of mathematics. There are not the votes in the HOC or HOL to approve a hard Brexit
So you get rid of Theresa May and then change the numbers by having another general election under a new Con leader.
It's not rocket science.
There's an assumption that whatever is thrown at Brexiteers and Brexit voters they just have suck it up. That assumption is false.
The local elections looked like the start of Brexit voters beginning to reassert their authority - Time for Brexiteers at Westminster to do the same.
Did you miss the 2017 general election ?
The one that was going to crush the saboteurs.
if only you had the common sense of Dave to say what has happened has happened and there's no point crying over spilt milk.
Get on with life as it is not how you thought it would be
I’ve moved on. My view has consistently the sooner we Leave the sooner we rejoin.
As my day job is 99% Brexit related I’m intrigued by it all.
I cant see us rejoining in the short-medium term, and any terms offered would be on the same terms as new entrants.
personally I think that will be hard to sell
Depends on how we Leave.
If it is viagra hard Brexit with supermarkets running out of food, planes grounded et al then it’ll happen.
If it is the long goodbye with a decade long transition then rejoining it won’t happen in the medium term.
oh dear, youre just so addicted to Project Fear
which do you think will cost more jobs ?
Greg Clarks scaremongering about Brexit or Greg Clark refusing to stop Melrose asset stripping GKN and allowing an oligopoly in the supermarket sector ?
Within a few months Project Fear could be Project Reality.
I did warn you at the time.
so far the only part of Project Fear that has come true is Stuart Rose's threat that if we vote Leave wages will start to rise
I’ve never really understood the point of Galileo, when we already have GPS. The US is fundamental to our security to a much greater extent than the EU, so why (contracts for Inmarsat aside) is public money being spent on a rival satellite system?
Partly for the same reason that the Russians have Glosnass and the Chinese BeiDou - security. So much of the world now relies on GPS-style services, an outage could cause severe disruption.
On the other hand, the US really needs thanking for the introduction of the GPS system and allowing the world to use it free of charge. Like t'Internet, it has enabled large swathes of other technology.
If The Three Brexiteers resign from the Cabinet today what does May do?
A leadership challenge would ensue.
Indeed.
And it would not make a jot of difference. You cannot alter the basic law of mathematics. There are not the votes in the HOC or HOL to approve a hard Brexit
So you get rid of Theresa May and then change the numbers by having another general election under a new Con leader.
It's not rocket science.
There's an assumption that whatever is thrown at Brexiteers and Brexit voters they just have suck it up. That assumption is false.
The local elections looked like the start of Brexit voters beginning to reassert their authority - Time for Brexiteers at Westminster to do the same.
Did you miss the 2017 general election ?
The one that was going to crush the saboteurs.
if only you had the common sense of Dave to say what has happened has happened and there's no point crying over spilt milk.
Get on with life as it is not how you thought it would be
I’ve moved on. My view has consistently the sooner we Leave the sooner we rejoin.
As my day job is 99% Brexit related I’m intrigued by it all.
I cant see us rejoining in the short-medium term, and any terms offered would be on the same terms as new entrants.
personally I think that will be hard to sell
Depends on how we Leave.
If it is viagra hard Brexit with supermarkets running out of food, planes grounded et al then it’ll happen.
If it is the long goodbye with a decade long transition then rejoining it won’t happen in the medium term.
oh dear, youre just so addicted to Project Fear
supermarket sector ?
Within a few months Project Fear could be Project Reality.
I did warn you at the time.
so far the only part of Project Fear that has come true is Stuart Rose's threat that if we vote Leave wages will start to rise
“The idea that Conservatives would legislate a race to the bottom is a myth and no one really believes it, even if some Tories have helped create it.
“The real fear is state subsidies under a Jeremy Corbyn government.
“British policy has remained unchanged for generations but now there is a real chance of a left-wing government reversing it. We have to protect ourselves and the single market.”
If The Three Brexiteers resign from the Cabinet today what does May do?
A leadership challenge would ensue.
Indeed.
And it would not make a jot of difference. You cannot alter the basic law of mathematics. There are not the votes in the HOC or HOL to approve a hard Brexit
So you get rid of Theresa May and then change the numbers by having another general election under a new Con leader.
It's not rocket science.
There's an assumption that whatever is thrown at Brexiteers and Brexit voters they just have suck it up. That assumption is false.
The local elections looked like the start of Brexit voters beginning to reassert their authority - Time for Brexiteers at Westminster to do the same.
Did you miss the 2017 general election ?
The one that was going to crush the saboteurs.
I’ve moved on. My view has consistently the sooner we Leave the sooner we rejoin.
As my day job is 99% Brexit related I’m intrigued by it all.
I cant see us rejoining in the short-medium term, and any terms offered would be on the same terms as new entrants.
personally I think that will be hard to sell
Depends on how we Leave.
If it is viagra hard Brexit with supermarkets running out of food, planes grounded et al then it’ll happen.
If it is the long goodbye with a decade long transition then rejoining it won’t happen in the medium term.
oh dear, youre just so addicted to Project Fear
supermarket sector ?
Within a few months Project Fear could be Project Reality.
I did warn you at the time.
so far the only part of Project Fear that has come true is Stuart Rose's threat that if we vote Leave wages will start to rise
"“Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms – that is, adjusted for price inflation – fell by 0.2% "
“The idea that Conservatives would legislate a race to the bottom is a myth and no one really believes it, even if some Tories have helped create it.
“The real fear is state subsidies under a Jeremy Corbyn government.
“British policy has remained unchanged for generations but now there is a real chance of a left-wing government reversing it. We have to protect ourselves and the single market.”
The EU are quite right to be worried about Corbyn in this respect. They should however be much more worried about European defence and security if Corbyn becomes PM.
"“Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms – that is, adjusted for price inflation – fell by 0.2% "
"With inflation falling, the ONS said the squeeze on living standards that had dampened consumer spending over the past year had come to an end if bonuses were included in the yardstick used to calculate earnings."
But the polls already show voters thinking the EU are not playing fair.....there'll be plenty of blame to go round - and the EU will get its share of it....fair or otherwise......'Lets re-join the club that grounded our planes' will be a tough sell.....
When the UK finds itself in a pickle we’re prepared to do bold things. Heck in the past we came close to merging the UK with France.
Plus, you know, wasn't an abiding principle of Brexit that we would no longer be able to blame the EU for our predicament and that British politicians would have nowhere to hide?
But the polls already show voters thinking the EU are not playing fair.....there'll be plenty of blame to go round - and the EU will get its share of it....fair or otherwise......'Lets re-join the club that grounded our planes' will be a tough sell.....
When the UK finds itself in a pickle we’re prepared to do bold things. Heck in the past we came close to merging the UK with France.
Plus, you know, wasn't an abiding principle of Brexit that we would no longer be able to blame the EU for our predicament and that British politicians would have nowhere to hide?
If The Three Brexiteers resign from the Cabinet today what does May do?
A leadership challenge would ensue.
Indeed.
And it would not make a jot of difference. You cannot alter the basic law of mathematics. There are not the votes in the HOC or HOL to approve a hard Brexit
So you get rid of Theresa May and then change the numbers by having another general election under a new Con leader.
It's not rocket science.
There's an assumption that whatever is thrown at Brexiteers and Brexit voters they just have suck it up. That assumption is false.
The local elections looked like the start of Brexit voters beginning to reassert their authority - Time for Brexiteers at Westminster to do the same.
Did you miss the 2017 general election ?
The one that was going to crush the saboteurs.
Events since then have proven conclusively that Theresa May was not crying wolf.
Yes, but she got the saboteurs wrong. The idioiy of Fox, Davis and Boris has caused far more damage to the Brexit cause than any Remainer.
Mr. Topping, if the political class is colluding with the EU to thwart the decision of the British electorate, blaming said electorate for the EU still having excessive influence here appears to be a creative and unorthodox approach to logic.
If The Three Brexiteers resign from the Cabinet today what does May do?
A leadership challenge would ensue.
Indeed.
And it would not make a jot of difference. You cannot alter the basic law of mathematics. There are not the votes in the HOC or HOL to approve a hard Brexit
So you get rid of Theresa May and then change the numbers by having another general election under a new Con leader.
It's not rocket science.
There's an assumption that whatever is thrown at Brexiteers and Brexit voters they just have suck it up. That assumption is false.
The local elections looked like the start of Brexit voters beginning to reassert their authority - Time for Brexiteers at Westminster to do the same.
In the local election, over 50% of voters gave their backing to parties that explicitly support a continued customs union with the EU.
It's hard to see who the Tories could choose to replace May who would break up the Labour voting coalition - which is what the Tories need in order to win a majority. Rees Mogg, Johnson, Gove and the like would cement it, as would Hunt - for different reasons. To go to the country early again and to fail to win outright again would kill off any serious Brexit for a very long time. You should be careful what you wish for.
And there was me thinking it was a local election about social care, children's services, roads, libraries, planning etc.
Far more independents (eg the Havering residents associations who won half the seats in the most pro leave area in London?) - do they have a view on the customs union? - and Lib Dems get elected in locals than generals but voters vote differently in general elections.
So trying to extrapolate an election not about Brexit policy to a national outcome isn't really credible - particularly given it was a set of local elections in mostly urban areas which voted mostly remain.
But the polls already show voters thinking the EU are not playing fair.....there'll be plenty of blame to go round - and the EU will get its share of it....fair or otherwise......'Lets re-join the club that grounded our planes' will be a tough sell.....
When the UK finds itself in a pickle we’re prepared to do bold things. Heck in the past we came close to merging the UK with France.
Plus, you know, wasn't an abiding principle of Brexit that we would no longer be able to blame the EU for our predicament and that British politicians would have nowhere to hide?
Yeah but that was before the revelation, which really nobody could have predicted, that the EU would be negotiating in their own self-interest rather than out of generosity
On the subject how well did the LibDems do really?, I thought it would be interesting to group the party's 2005 & 2010 seats into a series of buckets, and then look at the extent to which they have seen a recovery in each.
So...
The West Country - Yeovil, Somerset, Cornwall, Devon, etc University Seats - Cambridge, Bristol West, Leeds NW, Sheffield Hallam, Norwich South, Cardiff Central South West London - Richmond, Twickenham, Sutton, Kingston, Carshalton & Wallington English Market Towns - Eastleigh, Winchester, Bath, Cheltenham, Lewes, Only Opposition to Labour - Brent, Burnley, Redcar Celtic Fringe - Ceridgion, CS&ER, Inverness, RC&S, Orkney & Shetland Only Opposition to Conservatives (Scotland) - Berwick (x2), Dumbartonshire West
Of these, the LDs have made next to no progress in the West Country, with the exception of St Ives.
They have made some progress in the locals in the University seats, gaining in the locals this time around.
They have recovered most of the lost ground in SW London.
They have made progress in English market towns, with gains in most seats.
They have gone backwards in "Only Opposition to Labour".
They have done OK in the Celtic Fringe in parliamentary terms, but we don't yet have a feel for the locals there.
And most of their remaining former Scottish seats (except Fife NE) have become Conservative - SNP fights.
The LDs are currently the party of SW London, and the Celtic Fringe. The council results suggest they are making progress in the market towns of SE England, and have made a few tentative steps in some former university strongholds. The rest of their targets are showing little improvement.
Yeahbut London was turned into an awesome sea of red so nothing else counts.
Meanwhile, in Nuneaton, Morley, Newcastle -U-L, Dudley etc the trend is all blue. Guess where a general election is won and lost?
Umm, LibDem/Con marginals?
But how marginal are most of them now? Richmond Park, Cheadle, Devon N, Cheltenham, maybe St Albans, but where else are the LDs within 10% of the Con incumbent?
Maybe also Lewes (11.3%), Hazel Grove (11.3%) and St Albans (12.5%)
That's seven achievable on a 6% swing Con to LD. In Richmond locals there was a 14% swing Con to LD.
There's also Sheffield Hallam, NE Fife and Ceredigion making ten achievable gains - nearly doubling the LD seats to 22 where it could make a difference.
The Lib Dems had a huge lead in Twickenham, but only a 1% lead in Richmond Park, which suggests another tight contest.
Yes that's true. But there was a 14% swing CON to LD in both the Twickenham and Richmond Park parts of the borough. Kingston was similar.
There are nineteen Con/LD marginals that would fall to the LDs on a 14% swing. That's probably the upper limit!
Plus some seats the LDs lost to Labour in 2015 if Corbyn's Brexit position refuses to budge
There aren't any winnable seats left for the LibDs in what were LibD/Lab marginals.The only fight in town is LibDs v Tories
This may be an accurate reflection of the headbangers' mood. However, while it probably would be "off with her head", they'd probably be shooting their own feet in the process too. They might even have found the one way to enable Theresa May to win a vote of confidence.
I’ve never really understood the point of Galileo, when we already have GPS. The US is fundamental to our security to a much greater extent than the EU, so why (contracts for Inmarsat aside) is public money being spent on a rival satellite system?
Partly for the same reason that the Russians have Glosnass and the Chinese BeiDou - security. So much of the world now relies on GPS-style services, an outage could cause severe disruption.
On the other hand, the US really needs thanking for the introduction of the GPS system and allowing the world to use it free of charge. Like t'Internet, it has enabled large swathes of other technology.
I understand that Galileo will also be capable of working cooperatively with GPS to give greater accuracy then either system working alone, so perhaps one could also see Galileo as Europe's contribution to a common cause.
Building a competitor to GPS and Galileo strikes me as an idea well worth looking at...
If the UK wishes to position itself as a significant world economy, independent of the EU, US or China then having its own positioning capability may make perfect sense.
Selling the service could underpin trading and security relationships. It would provide significant investments in hi tech industries in the immediate post Brexit period, much of it inward investment. It would boost R&D in UK universities.
Finally, it could be a superior proposition to Galileo given that it could exploit the most up-to-date technology and lower satellite launch costs. In an outward looking UK, it makes more sense than HS2.
Surely Boris can't remain in government now. Yes, he's dropped petulant hints before, but his latest outburst amounts to brazen insubordination. The question is: will he be able to take Theresa down with him?
On the subject how well did the LibDems do really?, I thought it would be interesting to group the party's 2005 & 2010 seats into a series of buckets, and then look at the extent to which they have seen a recovery in each.
So...
The West Country - Yeovil, Somerset, Cornwall, Devon, etc University Seats - Cambridge, Bristol West, Leeds NW, Sheffield Hallam, Norwich South, Cardiff Central South West London - Richmond, Twickenham, Sutton, Kingston, Carshalton & Wallington English Market Towns - Eastleigh, Winchester, Bath, Cheltenham, Lewes, Only Opposition to Labour - Brent, Burnley, Redcar Celtic Fringe - Ceridgion, CS&ER, Inverness, RC&S, Orkney & Shetland Only Opposition to Conservatives (Scotland) - Berwick (x2), Dumbartonshire West
Of these, the LDs have made next to no progress in the West Country, with the exception of St Ives.
They have made some progress in the locals in the University seats, gaining in the locals this time around.
They have recovered most of the lost ground in SW London.
They have made progress in English market towns, with gains in most seats.
They have gone backwards in "Only Opposition to Labour".
They have done OK in the Celtic Fringe in parliamentary terms, but we don't yet have a feel for the locals there.
And most of their remaining former Scottish seats (except Fife NE) have become Conservative - SNP fights.
The LDs are currently the party of SW London, and the Celtic Fringe. The council results suggest they are making progress in the market towns of SE England, and have made a few tentative steps in some former university strongholds. The rest of their targets are showing little improvement.
The Lib Dems are following the itsy bitsy spider strategy. The results last week showed that they are currently targeting well but otherwise were really not particularly inspiring for them.
“The idea that Conservatives would legislate a race to the bottom is a myth and no one really believes it, even if some Tories have helped create it.
“The real fear is state subsidies under a Jeremy Corbyn government.
“British policy has remained unchanged for generations but now there is a real chance of a left-wing government reversing it. We have to protect ourselves and the single market.”
The EU are quite right to be worried about Corbyn in this respect. They should however be much more worried about European defence and security if Corbyn becomes PM.
I the Bundesnachrichtendienst has more to worry about Corbyn, than BMW confronted with a revivifed British Leyland
But the polls already show voters thinking the EU are not playing fair.....there'll be plenty of blame to go round - and the EU will get its share of it....fair or otherwise......'Lets re-join the club that grounded our planes' will be a tough sell.....
When the UK finds itself in a pickle we’re prepared to do bold things. Heck in the past we came close to merging the UK with France.
Plus, you know, wasn't an abiding principle of Brexit that we would no longer be able to blame the EU for our predicament and that British politicians would have nowhere to hide?
Yeah but that was before the revelation, which really nobody could have predicted, that the EU would be negotiating in their own self-interest rather than out of generosity
“The idea that Conservatives would legislate a race to the bottom is a myth and no one really believes it, even if some Tories have helped create it.
“The real fear is state subsidies under a Jeremy Corbyn government.
“British policy has remained unchanged for generations but now there is a real chance of a left-wing government reversing it. We have to protect ourselves and the single market.”
The EU are quite right to be worried about Corbyn in this respect. They should however be much more worried about European defence and security if Corbyn becomes PM.
The next election is not till 2022 so at the current rate of progress, the Conservatives will already have reduced the army to the SAS and some green lorries in Catterick. It is currently 30,000 troops lighter than in 2010.
If I were Jeremy Corbyn (pause...shudder), I would be cacking myself with glee right now.
All my political enemies, in both the Conservatives and Labour, are, more or less against their will, committed to fulfil my lifelong ambition of leaving the EU. I can cleave to the will of the people line all day long as I see us leave the evil military-industrial capitalist institution that is the EU and with luck the Tories will self-implode as they do it.
I can then, more in sorrow than anger, take over as PM of a UK outside the EU and subject it to my every bonkers whim about how I have theorised about running a country along socialist lines.
This is certainly going to hurt the border towns, at least until England does something similar. You don't have to be a fan of Nicola to wonder if alcohol at less than 50p a unit is a good idea.
David, surprised you are taken in by the hype. There has been little to no change , cheap muck at bottom may have gone up but any premium / quality beer / wine / spirits have not changed one iota. Unionist right wing cretinous bollox.
There are significant differences in price on most vodkas, some blended whiskies, cheap wine (Tesco was previously selling bottles down to £4 or even less) and cheap ciders. Some of these have almost doubled in price, especially the vodkas. As I say I personally am persuaded that this is a good thing and that really cheap alcohol was a bad thing causing serious damage to those who take it as well as adverse social consequences. But then, like you, the minimum price has not really affected me.
Isnt this just more middle class overlording ?
The middle classes and professions are currently the nation's heaviest drinkers
Yes it is which makes me uncomfortable. But having seen 2 daughters through their teens in recent years loading up with "pre's" (I am not sure how to spell it to be honest) at friend's houses before they went out there is no question that there remains an issue amongst the young, even if an increasing number of them don't drink at all reducing their average.
We see the social consequences on our streets and in Scotland at least it is an issue. We drink significantly more than the English on average and it is one of the factors that reduces our life expectancies (its also a lot easier to do something about than the depressing weather and lack of sunlight for months on end). There are arguments both ways but on balance I came down in support of minimum pricing.
Couldn't the Scottish government have increased alcohol duty across the board rather than aimed this tax rise at the low paid ?
They haven't increased the duty. They have simply said that alcohol cannot be sold at less than 50p per unit. The extra money goes to the retailer.
The vultures are circling above Theresa. She should use the nuclear option: say that either Boris and co. back her, or she'll call a vote of no confidence, which she'll lose and which will make Jezza PM.
I’ve never really understood the point of Galileo, when we already have GPS. The US is fundamental to our security to a much greater extent than the EU, so why (contracts for Inmarsat aside) is public money being spent on a rival satellite system?
Partly for the same reason that the Russians have Glosnass and the Chinese BeiDou - security. So much of the world now relies on GPS-style services, an outage could cause severe disruption.
On the other hand, the US really needs thanking for the introduction of the GPS system and allowing the world to use it free of charge. Like t'Internet, it has enabled large swathes of other technology.
I understand that Galileo will also be capable of working cooperatively with GPS to give greater accuracy then either system working alone, so perhaps one could also see Galileo as Europe's contribution to a common cause.
i think that also happens with GPS and Glosnass - one of my GPS units has the ability to get greater accuracy by using both systems. Unless you are talking about something more systemic to do with the satellites themselves?
Conhome survey on 'Should she stay, should she go?'
In short, the total of Party members believing that she should stand down at some point before 2022 (or earlier) has never dropped below half since the general election setback, if our panel is anything to go by.
It has become so commonplace a finding that perhaps we have all become inured to it. But it is not a strong background against which to govern and conduct the EU negotiation.
“The idea that Conservatives would legislate a race to the bottom is a myth and no one really believes it, even if some Tories have helped create it.
“The real fear is state subsidies under a Jeremy Corbyn government.
“British policy has remained unchanged for generations but now there is a real chance of a left-wing government reversing it. We have to protect ourselves and the single market.”
The EU are quite right to be worried about Corbyn in this respect. They should however be much more worried about European defence and security if Corbyn becomes PM.
I the Bundesnachrichtendienst has more to worry about Corbyn, than BMW confronted with a revivifed British Leyland
You are the "Bundesnachrichtendienst"? wow that is some claim.
I was catching up on my Economists this long weekend and reading Bagehot from the 6th Jan it is amazing how accurate his prediction on UK politics was. The TM Government stumbles on without any real plan. The country continues to drift.
The vultures are circling above Theresa. She should use the nuclear option: say that either Boris and co. back her, or she'll call a vote of no confidence, which she'll lose and which will make Jezza PM.
Except it wouldn't make Jezza PM. Just because May is not PM does not automatically mean Jezza is.
If the Speaker's chair became empty, would Jacob Rees-Mogg go for it or would he hold out for advancement within the Conservative party? What does the brains trust think?
Building a competitor to GPS and Galileo strikes me as an idea well worth looking at...
If the UK wishes to position itself as a significant world economy, independent of the EU, US or China then having its own positioning capability may make perfect sense.
Selling the service could underpin trading and security relationships. It would provide significant investments in hi tech industries in the immediate post Brexit period, much of it inward investment. It would boost R&D in UK universities.
Finally, it could be a superior proposition to Galileo given that it could exploit the most up-to-date technology and lower satellite launch costs. In an outward looking UK, it makes more sense than HS2.
The UK has the resources to do a satellite navigation system. I am doubtful whether it WILL do one. It won't be nearly as cheap as people make it out to be. The EU system has the inefficiencies of a multinational system. On the other hand it has the scale that allows each nationality to specialise in what it is good at. Standalone we would have to replicate others' expertise. Galileo can also tap into existing resources such as the ESA that we would have to build from scratch. A cost of £10-£20 billion, which is what Galileo cost, seems a reasonable guestimate of the actual cost of such a system. Of the same order as the cost of a aircraft carrier capability or a nuclear weapons programme. We can do it but we would need to make choices. What will we give up to afford it?
“The idea that Conservatives would legislate a race to the bottom is a myth and no one really believes it, even if some Tories have helped create it.
“The real fear is state subsidies under a Jeremy Corbyn government.
“British policy has remained unchanged for generations but now there is a real chance of a left-wing government reversing it. We have to protect ourselves and the single market.”
The EU are quite right to be worried about Corbyn in this respect. They should however be much more worried about European defence and security if Corbyn becomes PM.
The next election is not till 2022 so at the current rate of progress, the Conservatives will already have reduced the army to the SAS and some green lorries in Catterick. It is currently 30,000 troops lighter than in 2010.
There has been a 19% decrease in armed forces personnel since 2010 and we're currently 8,000 under strength on that!
The situation is actually worse than that as many of the shortcomings are being covered up by the rush to contractorisation. A comrade of mine is ex-AWI and is now a civilian getting paid to develop tactics at the Air Warfare Centre at RAF Coningsby (this would have been unthinkable even 10 years ago). Which is fine for now, but when the current cadre of contractors retire there simply isn't another generation of AWI/QWI/QFIs coming through in sufficient numbers to replace them. Those 800 student pilots that Cameron made redundant are going to be sorely missed.
If I were Jeremy Corbyn (pause...shudder), I would be cacking myself with glee right now.
All my political enemies, in both the Conservatives and Labour, are, more or less against their will, committed to fulfil my lifelong ambition of leaving the EU. I can cleave to the will of the people line all day long as I see us leave the evil military-industrial capitalist institution that is the EU and with luck the Tories will self-implode as they do it.
I can then, more in sorrow than anger, take over as PM of a UK outside the EU and subject it to my every bonkers whim about how I have theorised about running a country along socialist lines.
What is not to like?
Agreed. Jezza's played a blinder. He's been opaque enough to keep the liberal remainers on board, whilst the Tory right are doing all his eurosceptic work for him, and he doesn't need to get his hands dirty. The sly old fox!
I think one lesson I've learned over the last 2 years is this: don't piss all over people's identities.
Many British people felt the EU was imposing a creeping Europeanisation on their national identity as part of "The Project" - the EU flags on car numberplates, driving licences, maroon passports, EU citizenship, weights and measures, and the threat of the euro and ever close union - and they didn't like.
Over the last 2 years there are other British citizens/ residents who self-identify as "citizens of the world"/internationalists who feel very angry that now the same is happening to them, and they are being forced to shed that against their will.
The latter consider the former as backward, and anachronistic. The former consider the latter as traitors, and saboteurs. And they both get very angry at each other.
The solution: don't piss over people's identities, and a bit more understanding of difference, would go a long way. Even though, ironically, I think both sides do exaggerate the difference between the other a fair bit as well.
Mr. Meeks, I don't think Mogg is that keen on the party political route over the Speaker's chair. However, he may be concerned at leaving the field with the EU still very much a live issue.
The EU are quite right to be worried about Corbyn in this respect. They should however be much more worried about European defence and security if Corbyn becomes PM.
I am doubtful the EU is losing sleep over the prospect of a Corbyn government in a soon-to-be ex-member.
I think it is absolutely clear that the UK economy has lost a considerable amount of momentum. The interest rate increase pencilled in for this month is surely off.
We are finally seeing the consequences of an extended period of falling real wages on demand. The M1 figures are a consequence of that. The important thing for the UK is get output back in line with supply. If we can increase exports to offset this fall in demand this will be good for UK plc in the medium term, even if it is unpleasant in the short term. Unfortunately, I do not think we will be the only country that suffers from this. Much of the EZ is showing less promise than it did in January.
The "ra-ra-ra the pound is going up" cheering during the winter really was idiotic.
There's only two ways in which the UK can get growth:
1) Export led requiring low sterling and growth in other countries 2) Borrow and spend ie stealing growth from the future
What we really need is to improve our productivity markedly increasing competitiveness without depreciating the currency as the Germans have repeatedly done. But that is a much more complex, longer term solution.
What I am finding mildly irritating at the moment is people "finding" these long term, chronic problems in our economy and trying to claim that they have something to do with Brexit. The detail of these problems evolving whilst we were in the SM seems to completely pass them by.
They are much older than the Single Market. As discussed on here many times in the past, the UK's managerial class is shockingly lightweight. This country's overriding business philosophy is all about cutting to the bone instead of investing, getting by instead of planning, competing on price instead of on quality. What does that leave us with? Products that people do not want to buy produced by demoralised workforces with no incentive to do more than the bare minimum.
It's notable that in the service areas where we are top notch, people do tend to be paid well and businesses do invest and plan for the long term. There's a lesson there somewhere.
i think that also happens with GPS and Glosnass - one of my GPS units has the ability to get greater accuracy by using both systems. Unless you are talking about something more systemic to do with the satellites themselves?
You can do both. Mil spec GPS subsamples the ranging frequency to improve accuracy. Consumer devices could do this too but almost nobody would pay for it. In the vast majority of usage cases vanilla GPS is good enough,
Mr. Meeks, I don't think Mogg is that keen on the party political route over the Speaker's chair. However, he may be concerned at leaving the field with the EU still very much a live issue.
That's my own reading. He might have an awkward decision about timing ahead of him. I'm not sure which way he'd jump.
Though personally I expect the Speaker to survive the current controversy, just as he has survived all the others, so I expect it's a theoretical problem only for him.
This is certainly going to hurt the border towns, at least until England does something similar. You don't have to be a fan of Nicola to wonder if alcohol at less than 50p a unit is a good idea.
David, surprised you are taken in by the hype. There has been little to no change , cheap muck at bottom may have gone up but any premium / quality beer / wine / spirits have not changed one iota. Unionist right wing cretinous bollox.
There are significant differences in price on most vodkas, some blended whiskies, cheap wine (Tesco was previously selling bottles down to £4 or even less) and cheap ciders. Some of these have almost doubled in price, especially the vodkas. As I say I personally am persuaded that this is a good thing and that really cheap alcohol was a bad thing causing serious damage to those who take it as well as adverse social consequences. But then, like you, the minimum price has not really affected me.
Isnt this just more middle class overlording ?
The middle classes and professions are currently the nation's heaviest drinkers
Yes it is which makes me uncomfortable. But having seen 2 daughters through their teens in recent years loading up with "pre's" (I am not sure how to spell it to be honest) at friend's houses before they went out there is no question that there remains an issue amongst the young, even if an increasing number of them don't drink at all reducing their average.
We see the social consequences on our streets and in Scotland at least it is an issue. We drink significantly more than the English on average and it is one of the factors that reduces our life expectancies (its also a lot easier to do something about than the depressing weather and lack of sunlight for months on end). There are arguments both ways but on balance I came down in support of minimum pricing.
Couldn't the Scottish government have increased alcohol duty across the board rather than aimed this tax rise at the low paid ?
They haven't increased the duty. They have simply said that alcohol cannot be sold at less than 50p per unit. The extra money goes to the retailer.
We can assume that there is a net loss to the retailer across all sales otherwise the retailers would not be pricing their products so low.
But the polls already show voters thinking the EU are not playing fair.....there'll be plenty of blame to go round - and the EU will get its share of it....fair or otherwise......'Lets re-join the club that grounded our planes' will be a tough sell.....
When the UK finds itself in a pickle we’re prepared to do bold things. Heck in the past we came close to merging the UK with France.
Plus, you know, wasn't an abiding principle of Brexit that we would no longer be able to blame the EU for our predicament and that British politicians would have nowhere to hide?
Given we have not yet left the EU and your fellow travellers are doing their best to make sure we never do then your clever point is... well bollocks really. As and when we do get to leave then we can stop blaming the EU and its Remaniac cronies.
If The Three Brexiteers resign from the Cabinet today what does May do?
A leadership challenge would ensue.
Indeed.
And it would not make a jot of difference. You cannot alter the basic law of mathematics. There are not the votes in the HOC or HOL to approve a hard Brexit
So you get rid of Theresa May and then change the numbers by having another general election under a new Con leader.
It's not rocket science.
There's an assumption that whatever is thrown at Brexiteers and Brexit voters they just have suck it up. That assumption is false.
The local elections looked like the start of Brexit voters beginning to reassert their authority - Time for Brexiteers at Westminster to do the same.
Did you miss the 2017 general election ?
The one that was going to crush the saboteurs.
if only you had the common sense of Dave to say what has happened has happened and there's no point crying over spilt milk.
Get on with life as it is not how you thought it would be
I’ve moved on. My view has consistently the sooner we Leave the sooner we rejoin.
As my day job is 99% Brexit related I’m intrigued by it all.
Building a competitor to GPS and Galileo strikes me as an idea well worth looking at...
If the UK wishes to position itself as a significant world economy, independent of the EU, US or China then having its own positioning capability may make perfect sense.
Selling the service could underpin trading and security relationships. It would provide significant investments in hi tech industries in the immediate post Brexit period, much of it inward investment. It would boost R&D in UK universities.
Finally, it could be a superior proposition to Galileo given that it could exploit the most up-to-date technology and lower satellite launch costs. In an outward looking UK, it makes more sense than HS2.
The UK has the resources to do a satellite navigation system. I am doubtful whether it WILL do one. It won't be nearly as cheap as people make it out to be. The EU system has the inefficiencies of a multinational system. On the other hand it has the scale that allows each nationality to specialise in what it is good at. Standalone we would have to replicate others' expertise. Galileo can also tap into existing resources such as the ESA that we would have to build from scratch. A cost of £10-£20 billion, which is what Galileo cost, seems a reasonable guestimate of the actual cost of such a system. Of the same order as the cost of a aircraft carrier capability or a nuclear weapons programme. We can do it but we would need to make choices. What will we give up to afford it?
The first Gallileo test satellite, GIOVE-A, was designed and built by Surrey Satellite Systems. They were going to do another test satellite as well, but that was abandoned when the first two sats worked. Launch services could be procured from Russia (yes, really, they are that desperate) or the US (e.g. SpaceX).
I have no doubt that we could design and build such a system: the question is whether it is a good idea to do so. And I've no clue about that.
But the polls already show voters thinking the EU are not playing fair.....there'll be plenty of blame to go round - and the EU will get its share of it....fair or otherwise......'Lets re-join the club that grounded our planes' will be a tough sell.....
When the UK finds itself in a pickle we’re prepared to do bold things. Heck in the past we came close to merging the UK with France.
Plus, you know, wasn't an abiding principle of Brexit that we would no longer be able to blame the EU for our predicament and that British politicians would have nowhere to hide?
Given we have not yet left the EU and your fellow travellers are doing their best to make sure we never do then your clever point is... well bollocks really. As and when we do get to leave then we can stop blaming the EU and its Remaniac cronies.
The vultures are circling above Theresa. She should use the nuclear option: say that either Boris and co. back her, or she'll call a vote of no confidence, which she'll lose and which will make Jezza PM.
Except it wouldn't make Jezza PM. Just because May is not PM does not automatically mean Jezza is.
Yes, but it's theoretically possible that HM could ask Jezza to form a government once the no-confidence vote is lost. If Theresa's people hype this possibility loudly enough, it should be enough to bring Boris and co. back to heel: they wouldn't want to be deemed responsible for that.
If the Speaker's chair became empty, would Jacob Rees-Mogg go for it or would he hold out for advancement within the Conservative party? What does the brains trust think?
The interesting question is whether last week's "Bercow out" row was a cunning stunt by Number 10 to sideline Jacob Rees-Mogg, who has long been my tip for next Speaker.
Though personally I expect the Speaker to survive the current controversy, just as he has survived all the others, so I expect it's a theoretical problem only for him.
I've backed Bercow to stay in post before, but David Leakey's interview was absolubtely damning - whether he will go is another matter but he certainly should.
I was catching up on my Economists this long weekend and reading Bagehot from the 6th Jan it is amazing how accurate his prediction on UK politics was. The TM Government stumbles on without any real plan. The country continues to drift.
Because the contradiction of Brexit is insoluble. There is no acceptable "solution" for the UK that doesn't involve a close relationship with the EU on its terms. We can either be inside the EU helping to shape things to our advantage or outside it doing what we are told, and not necessarily to our advantage. We can do a clean break but that means embracing Project Fear when the Leave campaign implicitly promised nothing we like will change. Leavers do need Brexit to be a success at some level.
Ultimately it's going to be damage limitation - ensuring things aren't too much worse for us than they were before. That's not an inspiring prospectus.
Mr. Meeks, I don't think Mogg is that keen on the party political route over the Speaker's chair. However, he may be concerned at leaving the field with the EU still very much a live issue.
I think it's the other way round actually.
He might one day pursue that route, but not until he's older and approaching the end of his career. Besides which, I suspect he's too divisive to win a secret vote of MPs.
If the Speaker's chair became empty, would Jacob Rees-Mogg go for it or would he hold out for advancement within the Conservative party? What does the brains trust think?
The interesting question is whether last week's "Bercow out" row was a cunning stunt by Number 10 to sideline Jacob Rees-Mogg, who has long been my tip for next Speaker.
The latest Bercow row hasn't been instigated by the usual suspects though - if (big if) he does go to be replaced by Mogg it'll be serendipity for No 10.
Building a competitor to GPS and Galileo strikes me as an idea well worth looking at...
If the UK wishes to position itself as a significant world economy, independent of the EU, US or China then having its own positioning capability may make perfect sense.
Selling the service could underpin trading and security relationships. It would provide significant investments in hi tech industries in the immediate post Brexit period, much of it inward investment. It would boost R&D in UK universities.
Finally, it could be a superior proposition to Galileo given that it could exploit the most up-to-date technology and lower satellite launch costs. In an outward looking UK, it makes more sense than HS2.
The UK has the resources to do a satellite navigation system. I am doubtful whether it WILL do one. It won't be nearly as cheap as people make it out to be. The EU system has the inefficiencies of a multinational system. On the other hand it has the scale that allows each nationality to specialise in what it is good at. Standalone we would have to replicate others' expertise. Galileo can also tap into existing resources such as the ESA that we would have to build from scratch. A cost of £10-£20 billion, which is what Galileo cost, seems a reasonable guestimate of the actual cost of such a system. Of the same order as the cost of a aircraft carrier capability or a nuclear weapons programme. We can do it but we would need to make choices. What will we give up to afford it?
I have no doubt that we could design and build such a system: the question is whether it is a good idea to do so. And I've no clue about that.
I read some commentary that technological advances since the Galileo design was frozen means the UK could set up an equivalent system in low-earth orbit at much lower cost than the total Galileo cost (but not our 12% share of the Galileo cost).
I do find it odd that the EU want a deep and meaningful security partnership with a country they can't trust.....
If the Speaker's chair became empty, would Jacob Rees-Mogg go for it or would he hold out for advancement within the Conservative party? What does the brains trust think?
The interesting question is whether last week's "Bercow out" row was a cunning stunt by Number 10 to sideline Jacob Rees-Mogg, who has long been my tip for next Speaker.
The latest Bercow row hasn't been instigated by the usual suspects though - if (big if) he does go to be replaced by Mogg it'll be serendipity for No 10.
It would be serendipity for my betting position too. Watching Jacob Rees-Mogg fly out to 100/1 for next Conservative leader would be GLORIOUS.
If the Speaker's chair became empty, would Jacob Rees-Mogg go for it or would he hold out for advancement within the Conservative party? What does the brains trust think?
The interesting question is whether last week's "Bercow out" row was a cunning stunt by Number 10 to sideline Jacob Rees-Mogg, who has long been my tip for next Speaker.
The latest Bercow row hasn't been instigated by the usual suspects though - if (big if) he does go to be replaced by Mogg it'll be serendipity for No 10.
It would be serendipity for my betting position too. Watching Jacob Rees-Mogg fly out to 100/1 for next Conservative leader would be GLORIOUS.
#Metoo though I'm not certain Mogg will become speaker, even if Bercow stands down. I can't see him taking on a deputy or Ways & Means job either.
If the Speaker's chair became empty, would Jacob Rees-Mogg go for it or would he hold out for advancement within the Conservative party? What does the brains trust think?
The interesting question is whether last week's "Bercow out" row was a cunning stunt by Number 10 to sideline Jacob Rees-Mogg, who has long been my tip for next Speaker.
The latest Bercow row hasn't been instigated by the usual suspects though - if (big if) he does go to be replaced by Mogg it'll be serendipity for No 10.
It would be serendipity for my betting position too. Watching Jacob Rees-Mogg fly out to 100/1 for next Conservative leader would be GLORIOUS.
Watching him fly in from 55/1 was pretty good too.
Building a competitor to GPS and Galileo strikes me as an idea well worth looking at...
If the UK wishes to position itself as a significant world economy, independent of the EU, US or China then having its own positioning capability may make perfect sense.
Selling the service could underpin trading and security relationships. It would provide significant investments in hi tech industries in the immediate post Brexit period, much of it inward investment. It would boost R&D in UK universities.
Finally, it could be a superior proposition to Galileo given that it could exploit the most up-to-date technology and lower satellite launch costs. In an outward looking UK, it makes more sense than HS2.
The UK has the resources to do a satellite navigation system. I am doubtful whether it WILL do one. It won't be nearly as cheap as people make it out to be. The EU system has the inefficiencies of a multinational system. On the other hand it has the scale that allows each nationality to specialise in what it is good at. Standalone we would have to replicate others' expertise. Galileo can also tap into existing resources such as the ESA that we would have to build from scratch. A cost of £10-£20 billion, which is what Galileo cost, seems a reasonable guestimate of the actual cost of such a system. Of the same order as the cost of a aircraft carrier capability or a nuclear weapons programme. We can do it but we would need to make choices. What will we give up to afford it?
The first Gallileo test satellite, GIOVE-A, was designed and built by Surrey Satellite Systems. They were going to do another test satellite as well, but that was abandoned when the first two sats worked. Launch services could be procured from Russia (yes, really, they are that desperate) or the US (e.g. SpaceX).
I have no doubt that we could design and build such a system: the question is whether it is a good idea to do so. And I've no clue about that.
The UK government is using the idea of a standalone UK satellite system as a threat. An idle threat, I suspect, as I don't think it will cause the EU to do anything different. The arguments are about UK based companies pitching for work on Galileo, which might be resolved if the UK pays enough, and UK highest level access to the system, which is restricted by treaty to EU members. The EU has shown no desire so far to change the rules on membership benefits to extend those benefits to a country that has rejected membership. Hardly surprising IMO.
I think one lesson I've learned over the last 2 years is this: don't piss all over people's identities.
Many British people felt the EU was imposing a creeping Europeanisation on their national identity as part of "The Project" - the EU flags on car numberplates, driving licences, maroon passports, EU citizenship, weights and measures, and the threat of the euro and ever close union - and they didn't like.
Over the last 2 years there are other British citizens/ residents who self-identify as "citizens of the world"/internationalists who feel very angry that now the same is happening to them, and they are being forced to shed that against their will.
The latter consider the former as backward, and anachronistic. The former consider the latter as traitors, and saboteurs. And they both get very angry at each other.
The solution: don't piss over people's identities, and a bit more understanding of difference, would go a long way. Even though, ironically, I think both sides do exaggerate the difference between the other a fair bit as well.
This. And ditto for Scottish Nationalist and British identities.
Building a competitor to GPS and Galileo strikes me as an idea well worth looking at...
If the UK wishes to position itself as a significant world economy, independent of the EU, US or China then having its own positioning capability may make perfect sense.
Selling the service could underpin trading and security relationships. It would provide significant investments in hi tech industries in the immediate post Brexit period, much of it inward investment. It would boost R&D in UK universities.
Finally, it could be a superior proposition to Galileo given that it could exploit the most up-to-date technology and lower satellite launch costs. In an outward looking UK, it makes more sense than HS2.
The UK has the resources to do a satellite navigation system. I am doubtful whether it WILL do one. It won't be nearly as cheap as people make it out to be. The EU system has the inefficiencies of a multinational system. On the other hand it has the scale that allows each nationality to specialise in what it is good at. Standalone we would have to replicate others' expertise. Galileo can also tap into existing resources such as the ESA that we would have to build from scratch. A cost of £10-£20 billion, which is what Galileo cost, seems a reasonable guestimate of the actual cost of such a system. Of the same order as the cost of a aircraft carrier capability or a nuclear weapons programme. We can do it but we would need to make choices. What will we give up to afford it?
Housing benefit and working tax credits to EU citizens?
The Conservatives got off lightly; Labour’s overall performance was mediocre; and the Lib Dems tried hard to project a few spectacular localised results into a national revival......
.....How much worse do the Conservatives have to become before voters turn to Labour in sufficient numbers to transform our political landscape? This question will not go away until the ugly baby contest that passes for contemporary British politics is resolved.
I was catching up on my Economists this long weekend and reading Bagehot from the 6th Jan it is amazing how accurate his prediction on UK politics was. The TM Government stumbles on without any real plan. The country continues to drift.
Because the contradiction of Brexit is insoluble. There is no acceptable "solution" for the UK that doesn't involve a close relationship with the EU on its terms. We can either be inside the EU helping to shape things to our advantage or outside it doing what we are told, and not necessarily to our advantage. We can do a clean break but that means embracing Project Fear when the Leave campaign implicitly promised nothing we like will change. Leavers do need Brexit to be a success at some level.
Ultimately it's going to be damage limitation - ensuring things aren't too much worse for us than they were before. That's not an inspiring prospectus.
Correct, except for "ultimately" - I don't remember seeing a really enthusiastic and cogent statement of the Leave case since, ooooh, 22/6/16 or thereabouts.
The "ra-ra-ra the pound is going up" cheering during the winter really was idiotic.
There's only two ways in which the UK can get growth:
1) Export led requiring low sterling and growth in other countries 2) Borrow and spend ie stealing growth from the future
What we really need is to improve our productivity markedly increasing competitiveness without depreciating the currency as the Germans have repeatedly done. But that is a much more complex, longer term solution.
What I am finding mildly irritating at the moment is people "finding" these long term, chronic problems in our economy and trying to claim that they have something to do with Brexit. The detail of these problems evolving whilst we were in the SM seems to completely pass them by.
They are much older than the Single Market. As discussed on here many times in the past, the UK's managerial class is shockingly lightweight. This country's overriding business philosophy is all about cutting to the bone instead of investing, getting by instead of planning, competing on price instead of on quality. What does that leave us with? Products that people do not want to buy produced by demoralised workforces with no incentive to do more than the bare minimum.
It's notable that in the service areas where we are top notch, people do tend to be paid well and businesses do invest and plan for the long term. There's a lesson there somewhere.
Far be it for me to defend management but might their hands be tied? Perhaps the financial limitations that British businesses face make it impossible?
The vultures are circling above Theresa. She should use the nuclear option: say that either Boris and co. back her, or she'll call a vote of no confidence, which she'll lose and which will make Jezza PM.
Except it wouldn't make Jezza PM. Just because May is not PM does not automatically mean Jezza is.
Very true, it makes more sense to get a Conservative PM who really believes in Brexit and fought for it.
Building a competitor to GPS and Galileo strikes me as an idea well worth looking at...
If the UK wishes to position itself as a significant world economy, independent of the EU, US or China then having its own positioning capability may make perfect sense.
Selling the service could underpin trading and security relationships. It would provide significant investments in hi tech industries in the immediate post Brexit period, much of it inward investment. It would boost R&D in UK universities.
Finally, it could be a superior proposition to Galileo given that it could exploit the most up-to-date technology and lower satellite launch costs. In an outward looking UK, it makes more sense than HS2.
The UK has the resources to do a satellite navigation system. I am doubtful whether it WILL do one. It won't be nearly as cheap as people make it out to be. The EU system has the inefficiencies of a multinational system. On the other hand it has the scale that allows each nationality to specialise in what it is good at. Standalone we would have to replicate others' expertise. Galileo can also tap into existing resources such as the ESA that we would have to build from scratch. A cost of £10-£20 billion, which is what Galileo cost, seems a reasonable guestimate of the actual cost of such a system. Of the same order as the cost of a aircraft carrier capability or a nuclear weapons programme. We can do it but we would need to make choices. What will we give up to afford it?
The first Gallileo test satellite, GIOVE-A, was designed and built by Surrey Satellite Systems. They were going to do another test satellite as well, but that was abandoned when the first two sats worked. Launch services could be procured from Russia (yes, really, they are that desperate) or the US (e.g. SpaceX).
I have no doubt that we could design and build such a system: the question is whether it is a good idea to do so. And I've no clue about that.
Hardly surprising IMO.
It is if they want a strong security relationship with us.....
Building a competitor to GPS and Galileo strikes me as an idea well worth looking at...
If the UK wishes to position itself as a significant world economy, independent of the EU, US or China then having its own positioning capability may make perfect sense.
Selling the service could underpin trading and security relationships. It would provide significant investments in hi tech industries in the immediate post Brexit period, much of it inward investment. It would boost R&D in UK universities.
Finally, it could be a superior proposition to Galileo given that it could exploit the most up-to-date technology and lower satellite launch costs. In an outward looking UK, it makes more sense than HS2.
The UK has the resources to do a satellite navigation system. I am doubtful whether it WILL do one. It won't be nearly as cheap as people make it out to be. The EU system has the inefficiencies of a multinational system. On the other hand it has the scale that allows each nationality to specialise in what it is good at. Standalone we would have to replicate others' expertise. Galileo can also tap into existing resources such as the ESA that we would have to build from scratch. A cost of £10-£20 billion, which is what Galileo cost, seems a reasonable guestimate of the actual cost of such a system. Of the same order as the cost of a aircraft carrier capability or a nuclear weapons programme. We can do it but we would need to make choices. What will we give up to afford it?
Housing benefit and working tax credits to EU citizens?
Except EU citizens are paying much more tax then they receive in benefits.
If the Speaker's chair became empty, would Jacob Rees-Mogg go for it or would he hold out for advancement within the Conservative party? What does the brains trust think?
Strong evidence for the consistency of the long Milankovitch cycle (405,000 years) over several hundred million years: https://phys.org/news/2018-05-ancient-scientists-climate-deep.html While this has no real implications for present day climate modelling, it is potentially of great significance in unravelling long term climate history.
Building a competitor to GPS and Galileo strikes me as an idea well worth looking at...
If the UK wishes to position itself as a significant world economy, independent of the EU, US or China then having its own positioning capability may make perfect sense.
Selling the service could underpin trading and security relationships. It would provide significant investments in hi tech industries in the immediate post Brexit period, much of it inward investment. It would boost R&D in UK universities.
Finally, it could be a superior proposition to Galileo given that it could exploit the most up-to-date technology and lower satellite launch costs. In an outward looking UK, it makes more sense than HS2.
The UK has the resources to do a satellite navigation system. I am doubtful whether it WILL do one. It won't be nearly as cheap as people make it out to be. The EU system has the inefficiencies of a multinational system. On the other hand it has the scale that allows each nationality to specialise in what it is good at. Standalone we would have to replicate others' expertise. Galileo can also tap into existing resources such as the ESA that we would have to build from scratch. A cost of £10-£20 billion, which is what Galileo cost, seems a reasonable guestimate of the actual cost of such a system. Of the same order as the cost of a aircraft carrier capability or a nuclear weapons programme. We can do it but we would need to make choices. What will we give up to afford it?
Housing benefit and working tax credits to EU citizens?
Except EU citizens are paying much more tax then they receive in benefits.
Genuine question which I don't know the answer to, what is the situation with respect to national insurance and the state pension for EU citizens ?
If the Speaker's chair became empty, would Jacob Rees-Mogg go for it or would he hold out for advancement within the Conservative party? What does the brains trust think?
The interesting question is whether last week's "Bercow out" row was a cunning stunt by Number 10 to sideline Jacob Rees-Mogg, who has long been my tip for next Speaker.
The latest Bercow row hasn't been instigated by the usual suspects though - if (big if) he does go to be replaced by Mogg it'll be serendipity for No 10.
It would be serendipity for my betting position too. Watching Jacob Rees-Mogg fly out to 100/1 for next Conservative leader would be GLORIOUS.
#Metoo though I'm not certain Mogg will become speaker, even if Bercow stands down. I can't see him taking on a deputy or Ways & Means job either.
At GE17 I bet ON Lindsay Hoyle holding Chorley and AGAINST him being Speaker.
Therefore I have red against him as next speaker, having already got the benefit of the first half of the bet.
Rees-Mogg to speaker would simultaneously wipe out the red on the next leadership AND next speaker markets for me about £300 in the red at the moment, which is cashed freed up (and a profit of say £50).
Building a competitor to GPS and Galileo strikes me as an idea well worth looking at...
If the UK wishes to position itself as a significant world economy, independent of the EU, US or China then having its own positioning capability may make perfect sense.
Selling the service could underpin trading and security relationships. It would provide significant investments in hi tech industries in the immediate post Brexit period, much of it inward investment. It would boost R&D in UK universities.
Finally, it could be a superior proposition to Galileo given that it could exploit the most up-to-date technology and lower satellite launch costs. In an outward looking UK, it makes more sense than HS2.
The UK has the resources to do a satellite navigation system. I am doubtful whether it WILL do one. It won't be nearly as cheap as people make it out to be. The EU system has the inefficiencies of a multinational system. On the other hand it has the scale that allows each nationality to specialise in what it is good at. Standalone we would have to replicate others' expertise. Galileo can also tap into existing resources such as the ESA that we would have to build from scratch. A cost of £10-£20 billion, which is what Galileo cost, seems a reasonable guestimate of the actual cost of such a system. Of the same order as the cost of a aircraft carrier capability or a nuclear weapons programme. We can do it but we would need to make choices. What will we give up to afford it?
Housing benefit and working tax credits to EU citizens?
Except EU citizens are paying much more tax then they receive in benefits.
Genuine question which I don't know the answer to, what is the situation with respect to national insurance and the state pension for EU citizens ?
Everyone has to pay NI. The country you retire in is responsible, I believe, for paying you the pension accrued in any EU member state you have previously worked in. I don't know how it gets aggregated.
Building a competitor to GPS and Galileo strikes me as an idea well worth looking at...
If the UK wishes to position itself as a significant world economy, independent of the EU, US or China then having its own positioning capability may make perfect sense.
Selling the service could underpin trading and security relationships. It would provide significant investments in hi tech industries in the immediate post Brexit period, much of it inward investment. It would boost R&D in UK universities.
Finally, it could be a superior proposition to Galileo given that it could exploit the most up-to-date technology and lower satellite launch costs. In an outward looking UK, it makes more sense than HS2.
The UK has the resources to do a satellite navigation system. I am doubtful whether it WILL do one. It won't be nearly as cheap as people make it out to be. The EU system has the inefficiencies of a multinational system. On the other hand it has the scale that allows each nationality to specialise in what it is good at. Standalone we would have to replicate others' expertise. Galileo can also tap into existing resources such as the ESA that we would have to build from scratch. A cost of £10-£20 billion, which is what Galileo cost, seems a reasonable guestimate of the actual cost of such a system. Of the same order as the cost of a aircraft carrier capability or a nuclear weapons programme. We can do it but we would need to make choices. What will we give up to afford it?
Housing benefit and working tax credits to EU citizens?
Except EU citizens are paying much more tax then they receive in benefits.
Genuine question which I don't know the answer to, what is the situation with respect to national insurance and the state pension for EU citizens ?
If they contribute they qualify. They can even buy missing years contributions, aiui. My wife is an EU citizen and receives a partial NI pension.
Building a competitor to GPS and Galileo strikes me as an idea well worth looking at...
If the UK wishes to position itself as a significant world economy, independent of the EU, US or China then having its own positioning capability may make perfect sense.
Selling the service could underpin trading and security relationships. It would provide significant investments in hi tech industries in the immediate post Brexit period, much of it inward investment. It would boost R&D in UK universities.
Finally, it could be a superior proposition to Galileo given that it could exploit the most up-to-date technology and lower satellite launch costs. In an outward looking UK, it makes more sense than HS2.
The UK has the resources to do a satellite navigation system. I am doubtful whether it WILL do one. It won't be nearly as cheap as people make it out to be. The EU system has the inefficiencies of a multinational system. On the other hand it has the scale that allows each nationality to specialise in what it is good at. Standalone we would have to replicate others' expertise. Galileo can also tap into existing resources such as the ESA that we would have to build from scratch. A cost of £10-£20 billion, which is what Galileo cost, seems a reasonable guestimate of the actual cost of such a system. Of the same order as the cost of a aircraft carrier capability or a nuclear weapons programme. We can do it but we would need to make choices. What will we give up to afford it?
Housing benefit and working tax credits to EU citizens?
Except EU citizens are paying much more tax then they receive in benefits.
Building a competitor to GPS and Galileo strikes me as an idea well worth looking at...
If the UK wishes to position itself as a significant world economy, independent of the EU, US or China then having its own positioning capability may make perfect sense.
Selling the service could underpin trading and security relationships. It would provide significant investments in hi tech industries in the immediate post Brexit period, much of it inward investment. It would boost R&D in UK universities.
Finally, it could be a superior proposition to Galileo given that it could exploit the most up-to-date technology and lower satellite launch costs. In an outward looking UK, it makes more sense than HS2.
The UK has the resources to do a satellite navigation system. I am doubtful whether it WILL do one. It won't be nearly as cheap as people make it out to be. The EU system has the inefficiencies of a multinational system. On the other hand it has the scale that allows each nationality to specialise in what it is good at. Standalone we would have to replicate others' expertise. Galileo can also tap into existing resources such as the ESA that we would have to build from scratch. A cost of £10-£20 billion, which is what Galileo cost, seems a reasonable guestimate of the actual cost of such a system. Of the same order as the cost of a aircraft carrier capability or a nuclear weapons programme. We can do it but we would need to make choices. What will we give up to afford it?
Housing benefit and working tax credits to EU citizens?
Except EU citizens are paying much more tax then they receive in benefits.
Genuine question which I don't know the answer to, what is the situation with respect to national insurance and the state pension for EU citizens ?
If they contribute they qualify. They can even buy missing years contributions, aiui. My wife is an EU citizen and receives a partial NI pension.
Doesn't this change the tax/benefits situation for alot of EU workers ?
Currently I'm entitled to ~ £100 a week if I was to down tools now till retirement which works out to around 100k of expected benefit (It's inflation linked right now, and I'll assume I'll live to ~ 88) and I've only contributed 25k according to my NI records. Obviously I plan to work for a while yet but are pensions accrued calculated in the cost-benefit analysis for EU citizens ?
Comments
https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/993748691541544960
It’ll be those nasty people in Brussels and Dublin who have failed to accept our entirely reasonable and practical proposals.
It’s Roundheads and Cavaliers time all over again!
I notice you decline to answer
so far the only part of Project Fear that has come true is Stuart Rose's threat that if we vote Leave wages will start to rise
Except real wages haven't been growing.
On the other hand, the US really needs thanking for the introduction of the GPS system and allowing the world to use it free of charge. Like t'Internet, it has enabled large swathes of other technology.
“The idea that Conservatives would legislate a race to the bottom is a myth and no one really believes it, even if some Tories have helped create it.
“The real fear is state subsidies under a Jeremy Corbyn government.
“British policy has remained unchanged for generations but now there is a real chance of a left-wing government reversing it. We have to protect ourselves and the single market.”
Far more independents (eg the Havering residents associations who won half the seats in the most pro leave area in London?) - do they have a view on the customs union? - and Lib Dems get elected in locals than generals but voters vote differently in general elections.
So trying to extrapolate an election not about Brexit policy to a national outcome isn't really credible - particularly given it was a set of local elections in mostly urban areas which voted mostly remain.
So...
The West Country - Yeovil, Somerset, Cornwall, Devon, etc
University Seats - Cambridge, Bristol West, Leeds NW, Sheffield Hallam, Norwich South, Cardiff Central
South West London - Richmond, Twickenham, Sutton, Kingston, Carshalton & Wallington
English Market Towns - Eastleigh, Winchester, Bath, Cheltenham, Lewes,
Only Opposition to Labour - Brent, Burnley, Redcar
Celtic Fringe - Ceridgion, CS&ER, Inverness, RC&S, Orkney & Shetland
Only Opposition to Conservatives (Scotland) - Berwick (x2), Dumbartonshire West
Of these, the LDs have made next to no progress in the West Country, with the exception of St Ives.
They have made some progress in the locals in the University seats, gaining in the locals this time around.
They have recovered most of the lost ground in SW London.
They have made progress in English market towns, with gains in most seats.
They have gone backwards in "Only Opposition to Labour".
They have done OK in the Celtic Fringe in parliamentary terms, but we don't yet have a feel for the locals there.
And most of their remaining former Scottish seats (except Fife NE) have become Conservative - SNP fights.
The LDs are currently the party of SW London, and the Celtic Fringe. The council results suggest they are making progress in the market towns of SE England, and have made a few tentative steps in some former university strongholds. The rest of their targets are showing little improvement.
If the UK wishes to position itself as a significant world economy, independent of the EU, US or China then having its own positioning capability may make perfect sense.
Selling the service could underpin trading and security relationships. It would provide significant investments in hi tech industries in the immediate post Brexit period, much of it inward investment. It would boost R&D in UK universities.
Finally, it could be a superior proposition to Galileo given that it could exploit the most up-to-date technology and lower satellite launch costs. In an outward looking UK, it makes more sense than HS2.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/05/the-conservative-campaign-machine-has-upped-its-game-but-the-loss-of-activists-trust-in-the-central-party-is-taking-time-to-repair.html
All my political enemies, in both the Conservatives and Labour, are, more or less against their will, committed to fulfil my lifelong ambition of leaving the EU. I can cleave to the will of the people line all day long as I see us leave the evil military-industrial capitalist institution that is the EU and with luck the Tories will self-implode as they do it.
I can then, more in sorrow than anger, take over as PM of a UK outside the EU and subject it to my every bonkers whim about how I have theorised about running a country along socialist lines.
What is not to like?
In short, the total of Party members believing that she should stand down at some point before 2022 (or earlier) has never dropped below half since the general election setback, if our panel is anything to go by.
It has become so commonplace a finding that perhaps we have all become inured to it. But it is not a strong background against which to govern and conduct the EU negotiation.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/05/our-survey-party-members-persist-in-believing-that-may-should-stand-down-before-the-next-election.html
The situation is actually worse than that as many of the shortcomings are being covered up by the rush to contractorisation. A comrade of mine is ex-AWI and is now a civilian getting paid to develop tactics at the Air Warfare Centre at RAF Coningsby (this would have been unthinkable even 10 years ago). Which is fine for now, but when the current cadre of contractors retire there simply isn't another generation of AWI/QWI/QFIs coming through in sufficient numbers to replace them. Those 800 student pilots that Cameron made redundant are going to be sorely missed.
Many British people felt the EU was imposing a creeping Europeanisation on their national identity as part of "The Project" - the EU flags on car numberplates, driving licences, maroon passports, EU citizenship, weights and measures, and the threat of the euro and ever close union - and they didn't like.
Over the last 2 years there are other British citizens/ residents who self-identify as "citizens of the world"/internationalists who feel very angry that now the same is happening to them, and they are being forced to shed that against their will.
The latter consider the former as backward, and anachronistic. The former consider the latter as traitors, and saboteurs. And they both get very angry at each other.
The solution: don't piss over people's identities, and a bit more understanding of difference, would go a long way. Even though, ironically, I think both sides do exaggerate the difference between the other a fair bit as well.
Though personally I expect the Speaker to survive the current controversy, just as he has survived all the others, so I expect it's a theoretical problem only for him.
Interesting.
I have no doubt that we could design and build such a system: the question is whether it is a good idea to do so. And I've no clue about that.
Always someone else's fault.
Ultimately it's going to be damage limitation - ensuring things aren't too much worse for us than they were before. That's not an inspiring prospectus.
He might one day pursue that route, but not until he's older and approaching the end of his career. Besides which, I suspect he's too divisive to win a secret vote of MPs.
I do find it odd that the EU want a deep and meaningful security partnership with a country they can't trust.....
.....How much worse do the Conservatives have to become before voters turn to Labour in sufficient numbers to transform our political landscape? This question will not go away until the ugly baby contest that passes for contemporary British politics is resolved.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/2018-local-election-analysis-david-cowling
https://phys.org/news/2018-05-ancient-scientists-climate-deep.html
While this has no real implications for present day climate modelling, it is potentially of great significance in unravelling long term climate history.
Chris Grayling looks like a dependable plodder for the Brexit cause.
Therefore I have red against him as next speaker, having already got the benefit of the first half of the bet.
Rees-Mogg to speaker would simultaneously wipe out the red on the next leadership AND next speaker markets for me
Remain and Leave becoming reconciled? Or the death of the sun 10 billion years?
https://news.sky.com/story/this-is-how-the-sun-will-die-scientists-say-and-its-not-looking-good-for-earth-11363661
Currently I'm entitled to ~ £100 a week if I was to down tools now till retirement which works out to around 100k of expected benefit (It's inflation linked right now, and I'll assume I'll live to ~ 88) and I've only contributed 25k according to my NI records.
Obviously I plan to work for a while yet but are pensions accrued calculated in the cost-benefit analysis for EU citizens ?