politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The last LE2018 post: How the main academic election predictio
Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The last LE2018 post: How the main academic election predictions did
A key part of election analysis each year are the two academic seat projections which seek to project party Council gains and losses. These play a big part in setting the media narrative over party expectations.
0
Comments
-
First! Like Leave, May & No....0
-
So, versus academic expectations, the Tories did a little bit better than expected, Labour a lot worse and the Lib Dems a lot better.
Mark Pack has taken a look at how opposition Labour leaders do in the Thrasher & Rallings national vote share calculations post LE.
Who comes top and who comes bottom?
You get one guess.....
https://www.markpack.org.uk/154799/labour-opposition-leaders-local-elections-record/0 -
Another perspective on 'the best Labour performance since 1971':
https://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/9927449927152230400 -
Second.
"-335 seats to +169" is not a forecast that carries any value or useful information whatsoever.0 -
Mike - Typo - Second paragraph :
"Professions Colin Rallings ...."0 -
As the Harvey Proctor case comes to trial, Tom Watson may find himself and his role coming under increasing scrutiny:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5701623/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-time-Nonce-Finder-General-dock.html0 -
One of Jeremy Corbyn's very few attributes is the fact that he is not Tom Watson.CarlottaVance said:As the Harvey Proctor case comes to trial, Tom Watson may find himself and his role coming under increasing scrutiny:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5701623/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-time-Nonce-Finder-General-dock.html0 -
Yeahbut London was turned into an awesome sea of red so nothing else counts.CarlottaVance said:Another perspective on 'the best Labour performance since 1971':
ttps://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/992744992715223040
Meanwhile, in Nuneaton, Morley, Newcastle -U-L, Dudley etc the trend is all blue. Guess where a general election is won and lost?
0 -
-
Umm, LibDem/Con marginals?Sandpit said:
Yeahbut London was turned into an awesome sea of red so nothing else counts.CarlottaVance said:Another perspective on 'the best Labour performance since 1971':
ttps://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/992744992715223040
Meanwhile, in Nuneaton, Morley, Newcastle -U-L, Dudley etc the trend is all blue. Guess where a general election is won and lost?0 -
Do we need put up a hard border?Scott_P said:0 -
So not very well then is the answer to how the academics did. It is a brave man or woman who places their bets on their models. Railings and Thrasher at least got each of the directions right although they were out on the quantum. I'm afraid Stephen Fisher is going to have to re-evaluate the worth of his model altogether.
Its a very good point that Mike makes about the Councils that had all their councillors up. It may be that that fluke significantly exaggerated the Lib Dem performance since almost all their gains were in those 3 Councils masking modest losses elsewhere.0 -
But how marginal are most of them now? Richmond Park, Cheadle, Devon N, Cheltenham, maybe St Albans, but where else are the LDs within 10% of the Con incumbent?not_on_fire said:
Umm, LibDem/Con marginals?Sandpit said:
Yeahbut London was turned into an awesome sea of red so nothing else counts.CarlottaVance said:Another perspective on 'the best Labour performance since 1971':
ttps://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/992744992715223040
Meanwhile, in Nuneaton, Morley, Newcastle -U-L, Dudley etc the trend is all blue. Guess where a general election is won and lost?
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html0 -
-
-
Is Sean Fear bracketing himself as a Tory activist these days?
On topic, I don’t think R&T did too badly.0 -
O/T two good NHS news stories. A few days ago a cricket-watching friend recoiunted, during a quiet period of play...... notn that there were many last Friday at Essex...... anyway he’d been to Chelmsord A&E a couple of weeks ago and been seen at 10am, triaged, seen nurse, been X-rayed and strapped up, and was on his way home soon after noon.
Yesterday it transiored that during my celebrations Eldest Grandson, playing something with his uncles and cousins had fallen and twisted his knee badly. Went to Southend A7E on Monday and had a similar experience. Went at 9am; patched up and home and recuperating (asleep) by 11.30..
It’s not all bad!0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Hopefully be a bit cooler tonight.0 -
This is certainly going to hurt the border towns, at least until England does something similar. You don't have to be a fan of Nicola to wonder if alcohol at less than 50p a unit is a good idea.Scott_P said:0 -
I think you’ll find that’s “the SNP” not “Scotland”....Casino_Royale said:
0 -
Isn’t there research that says people’s perception of the NHS is poor in “general” but their hospital is actually quite good....OldKingCole said:O/T two good NHS news stories. A few days ago a cricket-watching friend recoiunted, during a quiet period of play...... notn that there were many last Friday at Essex...... anyway he’d been to Chelmsord A&E a couple of weeks ago and been seen at 10am, triaged, seen nurse, been X-rayed and strapped up, and was on his way home soon after noon.
Yesterday it transiored that during my celebrations Eldest Grandson, playing something with his uncles and cousins had fallen and twisted his knee badly. Went to Southend A7E on Monday and had a similar experience. Went at 9am; patched up and home and recuperating (asleep) by 11.30..
It’s not all bad!0 -
IIRC there is.CarlottaVance said:
Isn’t there research that says people’s perception of the NHS is poor in “general” but their hospital is actually quite good....OldKingCole said:O/T two good NHS news stories. A few days ago a cricket-watching friend recoiunted, during a quiet period of play...... notn that there were many last Friday at Essex...... anyway he’d been to Chelmsord A&E a couple of weeks ago and been seen at 10am, triaged, seen nurse, been X-rayed and strapped up, and was on his way home soon after noon.
Yesterday it transiored that during my celebrations Eldest Grandson, playing something with his uncles and cousins had fallen and twisted his knee badly. Went to Southend A7E on Monday and had a similar experience. Went at 9am; patched up and home and recuperating (asleep) by 11.30..
It’s not all bad!0 -
He is barely in it with these statements. Boris’s eternal leadership campaign rolls onCarlottaVance said:0 -
I can do that in a single anecdote...CarlottaVance said:Isn’t there research that says people’s perception of the NHS is poor in “general” but their hospital is actually quite good....
GP says I need an X-ray. Local hospital has a walk-in X-ray service. No appointment necessary. No waiting. No parking charge because it was so quick.
Amazing.
A week later return to GP for results. He doesn't have the X-ray. He has a written report from a consultant at the country trust hospital (not the hospital with the X-ray machine)
Instant X-ray. Great.
Emailing the image to a consultant who has never examined the patient, to report to a GP who has never seen the image, can't be efficient.0 -
-
What goes down in one election can come up in the next. As the swings in some of Thursday's LibDem gains demonstrates.Sandpit said:
But how marginal are most of them now? Richmond Park, Cheadle, Devon N, Cheltenham, maybe St Albans, but where else are the LDs within 10% of the Con incumbent?not_on_fire said:
Umm, LibDem/Con marginals?Sandpit said:
Yeahbut London was turned into an awesome sea of red so nothing else counts.CarlottaVance said:Another perspective on 'the best Labour performance since 1971':
ttps://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/992744992715223040
Meanwhile, in Nuneaton, Morley, Newcastle -U-L, Dudley etc the trend is all blue. Guess where a general election is won and lost?
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html0 -
-
Well, I did quite a bit of work for a friend in Shaftesbury Ward.Casino_Royale said:Is Sean Fear bracketing himself as a Tory activist these days?
On topic, I don’t think R&T did too badly.
0 -
Why would he quit? That wouldn't do anything. His best plan would be stay on and wreck it from within.CarlottaVance said:0 -
I expect the Government to clearly lose that vote too.Scott_P said:0 -
What absolute garbage. I have seen no increase whatsoever in the price of beer. I don't drink any of the mental stuff so perhaps that is why , but premium beers have not changed one bit.Scott_P said:0 -
It is very difficult to oppose he government's Brexit policy when the government does not have a Brexit policy.
It isn't up to Labour to make the first move.0 -
David, surprised you are taken in by the hype. There has been little to no change , cheap muck at bottom may have gone up but any premium / quality beer / wine / spirits have not changed one iota. Unionist right wing cretinous bollox.DavidL said:
This is certainly going to hurt the border towns, at least until England does something similar. You don't have to be a fan of Nicola to wonder if alcohol at less than 50p a unit is a good idea.Scott_P said:0 -
Interesting straw in the wind - reports that government looking at stripping voting rights from peers who don’t make 20% of votes....Casino_Royale said:
I expect the Government to clearly lose that vote too.Scott_P said:
0 -
Because he could bring down May.....Dura_Ace said:
Why would he quit? That wouldn't do anything. His best plan would be stay on and wreck it from within.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Hmm. GP (effectively) asks consultant to look at image. Consultant does so. Tells GP what it looks like. GP has previously examined, presumably has an idea, wants it confirmed or rejected. Gets opinion. Proceeds.Scott_P said:
I can do that in a single anecdote...CarlottaVance said:Isn’t there research that says people’s perception of the NHS is poor in “general” but their hospital is actually quite good....
GP says I need an X-ray. Local hospital has a walk-in X-ray service. No appointment necessary. No waiting. No parking charge because it was so quick.
Amazing.
A week later return to GP for results. He doesn't have the X-ray. He has a written report from a consultant at the country trust hospital (not the hospital with the X-ray machine)
Instant X-ray. Great.
Emailing the image to a consultant who has never examined the patient, to report to a GP who has never seen the image, can't be efficient.
Seems OK to me.
I’ve had an MRI scan recently to see if my developing deafness is due to more than ‘just’ fair wear and tear”. Admittedly that was at request of local ENT specialist...... to whom I’d been referred by audiologist, not GP. Three weeks later letter from consultant. All OK.
Why would I have needed to see a GP?0 -
I wonder which class is keenest on the cheap stuff. Clue- look at the picture .malcolmg said:
David, surprised you are taken in by the hype. There has been little to no change , cheap muck at bottom may have gone up but any premium / quality beer / wine / spirits have not changed one iota. Unionist right wing cretinous bollox.DavidL said:
This is certainly going to hurt the border towns, at least until England does something similar. You don't have to be a fan of Nicola to wonder if alcohol at less than 50p a unit is a good idea.Scott_P said:0 -
LOL, unionist tax exile upset that the Tories are also rans in Scotland.CarlottaVance said:
I think you’ll find that’s “the SNP” not “Scotland”....Casino_Royale said:0 -
Best not to make idle threats if you have no way of carrying them out.CarlottaVance said:
Interesting straw in the wind - reports that government looking at stripping voting rights from peers who don’t make 20% of votes....Casino_Royale said:
I expect the Government to clearly lose that vote too.Scott_P said:0 -
I think it is absolutely clear that the UK economy has lost a considerable amount of momentum. The interest rate increase pencilled in for this month is surely off.AlastairMeeks said:
We are finally seeing the consequences of an extended period of falling real wages on demand. The M1 figures are a consequence of that. The important thing for the UK is get output back in line with supply. If we can increase exports to offset this fall in demand this will be good for UK plc in the medium term, even if it is unpleasant in the short term. Unfortunately, I do not think we will be the only country that suffers from this. Much of the EZ is showing less promise than it did in January.0 -
No its the crap posted by unionist losers trying to make out prices have gone up and that a couple of morons drive 20 miles to save 5 pence. The unionist gutter press surpass their right wing " SNP BAD " crap agenda. To the delight of Scottish hating morons like Scottp and CarlottaRecidivist said:0 -
A situation will develop very much like that in SE England years ago. White van man going over to Calais from SE England, loading up at big wine supermarket and bringing it back here.felix said:
I wonder which class is keenest on the cheap stuff. Clue- look at the picture .malcolmg said:
David, surprised you are taken in by the hype. There has been little to no change , cheap muck at bottom may have gone up but any premium / quality beer / wine / spirits have not changed one iota. Unionist right wing cretinous bollox.DavidL said:
This is certainly going to hurt the border towns, at least until England does something similar. You don't have to be a fan of Nicola to wonder if alcohol at less than 50p a unit is a good idea.Scott_P said:
The local entrepreneur who did that has died, so we don’t here much about it now.0 -
Why not email the image from the hospital to the GP?OldKingCole said:Hmm. GP (effectively) asks consultant to look at image. Consultant does so. Tells GP what it looks like. GP has previously examined, presumably has an idea, wants it confirmed or rejected. Gets opinion. Proceeds.
Seems OK to me.
If the GP wanted a second opinion, you might be right, but that was not a requirement in this case.
The same thing happened with an ultrasound. The GP wanted it done, but never got to see the raw image data, only somebody else's interpretation of it (so it's not really a second opinion; it's 2 different opinions based on 2 different data sets. 1 examination, 1 image. Can't be the best solution...)0 -
Lidl have changed their weekend discounts since minimum pricing. Instead of reducing their Australian merlot from £5 to £3 a bottle, they now discount their Barolo from £10 to £7. Both astonishing bargains for the quality.malcolmg said:
David, surprised you are taken in by the hype. There has been little to no change , cheap muck at bottom may have gone up but any premium / quality beer / wine / spirits have not changed one iota. Unionist right wing cretinous bollox.DavidL said:
This is certainly going to hurt the border towns, at least until England does something similar. You don't have to be a fan of Nicola to wonder if alcohol at less than 50p a unit is a good idea.Scott_P said:0 -
-
It is high quality and far above minimum price.felix said:0 -
There are significant differences in price on most vodkas, some blended whiskies, cheap wine (Tesco was previously selling bottles down to £4 or even less) and cheap ciders. Some of these have almost doubled in price, especially the vodkas. As I say I personally am persuaded that this is a good thing and that really cheap alcohol was a bad thing causing serious damage to those who take it as well as adverse social consequences. But then, like you, the minimum price has not really affected me.malcolmg said:
David, surprised you are taken in by the hype. There has been little to no change , cheap muck at bottom may have gone up but any premium / quality beer / wine / spirits have not changed one iota. Unionist right wing cretinous bollox.DavidL said:
This is certainly going to hurt the border towns, at least until England does something similar. You don't have to be a fan of Nicola to wonder if alcohol at less than 50p a unit is a good idea.Scott_P said:0 -
Suspect it’s open to the GP to see the raw image. All electronically transferable UNLESS the GP isn’t considered within the hospital’s normal catchment area, in which case there could be problems.Scott_P said:
Why not email the image from the hospital to the GP?OldKingCole said:Hmm. GP (effectively) asks consultant to look at image. Consultant does so. Tells GP what it looks like. GP has previously examined, presumably has an idea, wants it confirmed or rejected. Gets opinion. Proceeds.
Seems OK to me.
If the GP wanted a second opinion, you might be right, but that was not a requirement in this case.
The same thing happened with an ultrasound. The GP wanted it done, but never got to see the raw image data, only somebody else's interpretation of it (so it's not really a second opinion; it's 2 different opinions based on 2 different data sets. 1 examination, 1 image. Can't be the best solution...)0 -
Looks like Rallings and Thrasher were the most accurate forecaster, though they slightly underestimated the Tories and LDs and overestimated Labour0
-
He said notOldKingCole said:Suspect it’s open to the GP to see the raw image.
0 -
They should just scrap the Lords. It is a massive anachronism and overwhelmingly biased towards Londoners.CarlottaVance said:
Interesting straw in the wind - reports that government looking at stripping voting rights from peers who don’t make 20% of votes....Casino_Royale said:
I expect the Government to clearly lose that vote too.Scott_P said:0 -
Wow. £7 for Barolo is superb value. I haven't really got the Lidl habit yet. I may need to review.FF43 said:
Lidl have changed their weekend discounts since minimum pricing. Instead of reducing their Australian merlot from £5 to £3 a bottle, they now discount their Barolo from £10 to £7. Both astonishing bargains for the quality.malcolmg said:
David, surprised you are taken in by the hype. There has been little to no change , cheap muck at bottom may have gone up but any premium / quality beer / wine / spirits have not changed one iota. Unionist right wing cretinous bollox.DavidL said:
This is certainly going to hurt the border towns, at least until England does something similar. You don't have to be a fan of Nicola to wonder if alcohol at less than 50p a unit is a good idea.Scott_P said:0 -
Surprised.Scott_P said:
He said notOldKingCole said:Suspect it’s open to the GP to see the raw image.
0 -
FPT: ' Wandsworth has a homelessness crisis but the scheme has just 9% affordable housing. The homeless are paying the price for decades of Tory failure. '
Population of Wandsworth:
2001 260,383
2011 306,995
2016 316,100 est
Perhaps that has something to do with Wandsworth's 'homelessness crisis' ?0 -
Isnt this just more middle class overlording ?DavidL said:
There are significant differences in price on most vodkas, some blended whiskies, cheap wine (Tesco was previously selling bottles down to £4 or even less) and cheap ciders. Some of these have almost doubled in price, especially the vodkas. As I say I personally am persuaded that this is a good thing and that really cheap alcohol was a bad thing causing serious damage to those who take it as well as adverse social consequences. But then, like you, the minimum price has not really affected me.malcolmg said:
David, surprised you are taken in by the hype. There has been little to no change , cheap muck at bottom may have gone up but any premium / quality beer / wine / spirits have not changed one iota. Unionist right wing cretinous bollox.DavidL said:
This is certainly going to hurt the border towns, at least until England does something similar. You don't have to be a fan of Nicola to wonder if alcohol at less than 50p a unit is a good idea.Scott_P said:
The middle classes and professions are currently the nation's heaviest drinkers
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/uk-most-frequent-drinkers-lawyers-doctors-city-professionals-alcohol-consumption-statistics-a8330741.html
0 -
£7 Barolo sounds goodFF43 said:
Lidl have changed their weekend discounts since minimum pricing. Instead of reducing their Australian merlot from £5 to £3 a bottle, they now discount their Barolo from £10 to £7. Both astonishing bargains for the quality.malcolmg said:
David, surprised you are taken in by the hype. There has been little to no change , cheap muck at bottom may have gone up but any premium / quality beer / wine / spirits have not changed one iota. Unionist right wing cretinous bollox.DavidL said:
This is certainly going to hurt the border towns, at least until England does something similar. You don't have to be a fan of Nicola to wonder if alcohol at less than 50p a unit is a good idea.Scott_P said:
The minimum pricing, at the level it is, won’t have a lot of effect except at the bottom of the market, you’d need to fill a Transit full of cheap lager or pish ‘whisky’ to cover the cost of the trip from say Glasgow to Carlisle. Not good if you’re the manager of Haddows in Gretna though.0 -
They should now ban any member of the Lord's with an EU pension or funding from speaking or voting on any Brexit vote.Elliot said:
They should just scrap the Lords. It is a massive anachronism and overwhelmingly biased towards Londoners.CarlottaVance said:
Interesting straw in the wind - reports that government looking at stripping voting rights from peers who don’t make 20% of votes....Casino_Royale said:
I expect the Government to clearly lose that vote too.Scott_P said:0 -
On that basis Corbyn has the worst local elections record of any Labour opposition leader on an average voteshare basis so farCarlottaVance said:Another perspective on 'the best Labour performance since 1971':
https://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/9927449927152230400 -
St Ives?Sandpit said:
But how marginal are most of them now? Richmond Park, Cheadle, Devon N, Cheltenham, maybe St Albans, but where else are the LDs within 10% of the Con incumbent?not_on_fire said:
Umm, LibDem/Con marginals?Sandpit said:
Yeahbut London was turned into an awesome sea of red so nothing else counts.CarlottaVance said:Another perspective on 'the best Labour performance since 1971':
ttps://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/992744992715223040
Meanwhile, in Nuneaton, Morley, Newcastle -U-L, Dudley etc the trend is all blue. Guess where a general election is won and lost?
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html0 -
In this era of minority governments and small majorities, even 5-6 seats lost to the LDs could be very significant.Sandpit said:
But how marginal are most of them now? Richmond Park, Cheadle, Devon N, Cheltenham, maybe St Albans, but where else are the LDs within 10% of the Con incumbent?not_on_fire said:
Umm, LibDem/Con marginals?Sandpit said:
Yeahbut London was turned into an awesome sea of red so nothing else counts.CarlottaVance said:Another perspective on 'the best Labour performance since 1971':
ttps://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/992744992715223040
Meanwhile, in Nuneaton, Morley, Newcastle -U-L, Dudley etc the trend is all blue. Guess where a general election is won and lost?
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html
Also, St Ives should be on your list.0 -
I’ve seen both the good and the bad of the NHS. My other half’s critical care treatment, the in-patient care, speech therapy, physio and occupational therapy was all excellent. The district nurse system was a disgrace, the paramedics were incredible. The local authority’s occupational therapy and speech therapy was surprisingly good, though obviously stretched.
My parents are currently being let down by delays in getting cancer treatment for my dad. My mum is beside herself with worry.0 -
I wouldn’t go that far, but it’s reasonable to expect that they declare their interest if they’re in the pay of the EU.saddo said:
They should now ban any member of the Lord's with an EU pension or funding from speaking or voting on any Brexit vote.Elliot said:
They should just scrap the Lords. It is a massive anachronism and overwhelmingly biased towards Londoners.CarlottaVance said:
Interesting straw in the wind - reports that government looking at stripping voting rights from peers who don’t make 20% of votes....Casino_Royale said:
I expect the Government to clearly lose that vote too.Scott_P said:0 -
Shouldn't you have predicted the shambles before you placed your X?SandyRentool said:It is very difficult to oppose he government's Brexit policy when the government does not have a Brexit policy.
It isn't up to Labour to make the first move.0 -
They seen as bad at making up their minds as the cabinet, though in fairness the latter is a more immediate concern .Scott_P said:0 -
The "ra-ra-ra the pound is going up" cheering during the winter really was idiotic.DavidL said:
I think it is absolutely clear that the UK economy has lost a considerable amount of momentum. The interest rate increase pencilled in for this month is surely off.AlastairMeeks said:
We are finally seeing the consequences of an extended period of falling real wages on demand. The M1 figures are a consequence of that. The important thing for the UK is get output back in line with supply. If we can increase exports to offset this fall in demand this will be good for UK plc in the medium term, even if it is unpleasant in the short term. Unfortunately, I do not think we will be the only country that suffers from this. Much of the EZ is showing less promise than it did in January.
There's only two ways in which the UK can get growth:
1) Export led requiring low sterling and growth in other countries
2) Borrow and spend ie stealing growth from the future0 -
Yes it is which makes me uncomfortable. But having seen 2 daughters through their teens in recent years loading up with "pre's" (I am not sure how to spell it to be honest) at friend's houses before they went out there is no question that there remains an issue amongst the young, even if an increasing number of them don't drink at all reducing their average.Alanbrooke said:
Isnt this just more middle class overlording ?DavidL said:
There are significant differences in price on most vodkas, some blended whiskies, cheap wine (Tesco was previously selling bottles down to £4 or even less) and cheap ciders. Some of these have almost doubled in price, especially the vodkas. As I say I personally am persuaded that this is a good thing and that really cheap alcohol was a bad thing causing serious damage to those who take it as well as adverse social consequences. But then, like you, the minimum price has not really affected me.malcolmg said:
David, surprised you are taken in by the hype. There has been little to no change , cheap muck at bottom may have gone up but any premium / quality beer / wine / spirits have not changed one iota. Unionist right wing cretinous bollox.DavidL said:
This is certainly going to hurt the border towns, at least until England does something similar. You don't have to be a fan of Nicola to wonder if alcohol at less than 50p a unit is a good idea.Scott_P said:
The middle classes and professions are currently the nation's heaviest drinkers
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/uk-most-frequent-drinkers-lawyers-doctors-city-professionals-alcohol-consumption-statistics-a8330741.html
We see the social consequences on our streets and in Scotland at least it is an issue. We drink significantly more than the English on average and it is one of the factors that reduces our life expectancies (its also a lot easier to do something about than the depressing weather and lack of sunlight for months on end). There are arguments both ways but on balance I came down in support of minimum pricing.0 -
Yes, good spot.HYUFD said:
St Ives?Sandpit said:
But how marginal are most of them now? Richmond Park, Cheadle, Devon N, Cheltenham, maybe St Albans, but where else are the LDs within 10% of the Con incumbent?not_on_fire said:
Umm, LibDem/Con marginals?Sandpit said:
Yeahbut London was turned into an awesome sea of red so nothing else counts.CarlottaVance said:Another perspective on 'the best Labour performance since 1971':
ttps://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/992744992715223040
Meanwhile, in Nuneaton, Morley, Newcastle -U-L, Dudley etc the trend is all blue. Guess where a general election is won and lost?
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html0 -
CarlottaVance said:
Interesting straw in the wind - reports that government looking at stripping voting rights from peers who don’t make 20% of votes....Casino_Royale said:
I expect the Government to clearly lose that vote too.Scott_P said:
So goodbye to flying in Andrew Lloyd-Webber to vote through benefit cuts then...CarlottaVance said:
Interesting straw in the wind - reports that government looking at stripping voting rights from peers who don’t make 20% of votes....Casino_Royale said:
I expect the Government to clearly lose that vote too.Scott_P said:0 -
It does seem that way. She is losing so many cabinet members, and he do blatantly would be positioned for a challenge. It's a mess of her making, but I still have some sympathy - sure you want someone inside the tent pissing out, but he's been spraying in all directions constantly.Scott_P said:0 -
I know someone who might have liver/bile duct cancer and has been going round in circles being sent from doctor to doctor and hospital to hospital since before Christmas!AlastairMeeks said:
My parents are currently being let down by delays in getting cancer treatment for my dad. My mum is beside herself with worry.
Even now they are still waiting for an appointment to go in for a biopsy that will finally determined what is wrong with her.0 -
At that point no-one anticipated that TMay would be running the show.Roger said:
Shouldn't you have predicted the shambles before you placed your X?SandyRentool said:It is very difficult to oppose he government's Brexit policy when the government does not have a Brexit policy.
It isn't up to Labour to make the first move.0 -
I believe there are problems with the electoral register in St Ives. Apparently one canvasser encountered a man who claimed to have 7 wives...HYUFD said:
St Ives?Sandpit said:
But how marginal are most of them now? Richmond Park, Cheadle, Devon N, Cheltenham, maybe St Albans, but where else are the LDs within 10% of the Con incumbent?not_on_fire said:
Umm, LibDem/Con marginals?Sandpit said:
Yeahbut London was turned into an awesome sea of red so nothing else counts.CarlottaVance said:Another perspective on 'the best Labour performance since 1971':
ttps://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/992744992715223040
Meanwhile, in Nuneaton, Morley, Newcastle -U-L, Dudley etc the trend is all blue. Guess where a general election is won and lost?
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html
(I've already got my coat)0 -
It really is starting to feel like we are reaching the reductio ad absurdum phase of Brexit0
-
Mr. P, why would MPs, excepting the censorious and far left, be in favour of state regulation of the press? I hope the amendment fails utterly.0
-
This fairly disgusting company operates out of London.
https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/05/black-cube-admits-it-targeted-obama-aides-wives/
Are there any British laws to stop this sort if harassment?0 -
What we really need is to improve our productivity markedly increasing competitiveness without depreciating the currency as the Germans have repeatedly done. But that is a much more complex, longer term solution.another_richard said:
The "ra-ra-ra the pound is going up" cheering during the winter really was idiotic.DavidL said:
I think it is absolutely clear that the UK economy has lost a considerable amount of momentum. The interest rate increase pencilled in for this month is surely off.AlastairMeeks said:
We are finally seeing the consequences of an extended period of falling real wages on demand. The M1 figures are a consequence of that. The important thing for the UK is get output back in line with supply. If we can increase exports to offset this fall in demand this will be good for UK plc in the medium term, even if it is unpleasant in the short term. Unfortunately, I do not think we will be the only country that suffers from this. Much of the EZ is showing less promise than it did in January.
There's only two ways in which the UK can get growth:
1) Export led requiring low sterling and growth in other countries
2) Borrow and spend ie stealing growth from the future
What I am finding mildly irritating at the moment is people "finding" these long term, chronic problems in our economy and trying to claim that they have something to do with Brexit. The detail of these problems evolving whilst we were in the SM seems to completely pass them by.0 -
I'm not a fan of making kneejerk constitutional changes in search of a solution to a temporary political problem, but that is one of the measures I've suggested for years. It's not supposed to be a place of comfy retirement, or a peerage no different than a knighthood, some fancy medal. If you don't put in the time to scrutinise legislation, you should be excluded, and it quickly reduces the size of the house.CarlottaVance said:
Interesting straw in the wind - reports that government looking at stripping voting rights from peers who don’t make 20% of votes....Casino_Royale said:
I expect the Government to clearly lose that vote too.Scott_P said:
So the motivation is bad, but the proposal may be good, it depends on how it was proposed to be implemented. You'd need a lengthy warning period for a start.0 -
The district nurse system has been wrecked by cuts and re-organisations.AlastairMeeks said:I’ve seen both the good and the bad of the NHS. My other half’s critical care treatment, the in-patient care, speech therapy, physio and occupational therapy was all excellent. The district nurse system was a disgrace, the paramedics were incredible. The local authority’s occupational therapy and speech therapy was surprisingly good, though obviously stretched.
My parents are currently being let down by delays in getting cancer treatment for my dad. My mum is beside herself with worry.0 -
If The Three Brexiteers resign from the Cabinet today what does May do?0
-
The main driver of inefficiency in the NHS is that elderly patients are kept in hospital beds, deprivng them from other people, because the underfunded social care system doesn't have capacity to take them.AlastairMeeks said:I’ve seen both the good and the bad of the NHS. My other half’s critical care treatment, the in-patient care, speech therapy, physio and occupational therapy was all excellent. The district nurse system was a disgrace, the paramedics were incredible. The local authority’s occupational therapy and speech therapy was surprisingly good, though obviously stretched.
My parents are currently being let down by delays in getting cancer treatment for my dad. My mum is beside herself with worry.0 -
3) reshoring and making stuff we used to make so we don't import itanother_richard said:
The "ra-ra-ra the pound is going up" cheering during the winter really was idiotic.DavidL said:
I think it is absolutely clear that the UK economy has lost a considerable amount of momentum. The interest rate increase pencilled in for this month is surely off.AlastairMeeks said:
We are finally seeing the consequences of an extended period of falling real wages on demand. The M1 figures are a consequence of that. The important thing for the UK is get output back in line with supply. If we can increase exports to offset this fall in demand this will be good for UK plc in the medium term, even if it is unpleasant in the short term. Unfortunately, I do not think we will be the only country that suffers from this. Much of the EZ is showing less promise than it did in January.
There's only two ways in which the UK can get growth:
1) Export led requiring low sterling and growth in other countries
2) Borrow and spend ie stealing growth from the future
start with HP sauce0 -
Free speech is good. Presenting lies as if they were news is not good.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. P, why would MPs, excepting the censorious and far left, be in favour of state regulation of the press? I hope the amendment fails utterly.
0 -
You must have anticipated it would be a Tory. Were you thinking it would be a Tory of your imagination or is there a real one you can think of who could ever have made a decent job of it?SandyRentool said:
At that point no-one anticipated that TMay would be running the show.Roger said:
Shouldn't you have predicted the shambles before you placed your X?SandyRentool said:It is very difficult to oppose he government's Brexit policy when the government does not have a Brexit policy.
It isn't up to Labour to make the first move.0 -
Make Ken Clarke Brexit Secretary?GIN1138 said:If The Three Brexiteers resign from the Cabinet today what does May do?
0 -
No it isn't, but the opposition don't have to wait for the government to make up its mind before making up their own. They can just have a policy and if the government ever picked the same one, well doneSandyRentool said:It is very difficult to oppose he government's Brexit policy when the government does not have a Brexit policy.
It isn't up to Labour to make the first move.
The cabinet still not decided is more of a problem, but labour are either divided or incredibly cynical over it.0 -
Ian Dunt - @IanDunt: You couldn't ask for a more perfect encapsulation of the pointlessness of Brexit than ham-faced cretin Gavin Williamson saying we should build our own Galileo system.
Ian Dunt - @IanDunt: He wants to spend countless millions replicating a project we are already invested in. He calls it... you guessed it... "rediscovering our bulldog spirit".0 -
Yes, the one who promised us he wouldn't resign as PM if Leave won!Roger said:
You must have anticipated it would be a Tory. Were you thinking it would be a Tory of your imagination or is there a real one you can think of who could ever have made a decent job of it?SandyRentool said:
At that point no-one anticipated that TMay would be running the show.Roger said:
Shouldn't you have predicted the shambles before you placed your X?SandyRentool said:It is very difficult to oppose he government's Brexit policy when the government does not have a Brexit policy.
It isn't up to Labour to make the first move.0 -
Replace them with RemainersGIN1138 said:If The Three Brexiteers resign from the Cabinet today what does May do?
0
This discussion has been closed.