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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Motivating Labour’s huge volunteer army can be at odds with managing election expectations
I have just got off the phone from someone who was working for the Conservative campaign yesterday in a key ward in Wandsworth which was eventually held by the party by margin of 36 votes.
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First!0
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Second like London Labour's expectations....0
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2nd like...err...0
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Cons still, er, +0 or should we manage expectations and say -00
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Labour members are currently in a bubble, talking to themselves, hyping themselves up. It happens, and there is nothing peculiar to Labour about this. The Tories were in similar position in the run up to 2017.
The key question: Now presented with a reality check, what does Labour do?
The Lib Dems have not yet managed to find a response to the reality that the coalition was not popular.0 -
Results coming in from B'ham:
Castle Vale:
Con 731
lab 640
LD 35
TUSC 34
Nechells:
Lab 1,237
Con 164
LD 123
King's Norton South:
Lab 1,015
Con 843
LD 106
Frankley Great Park:
Con 1,019
Lab 904
LD 78
https://twitter.com/bhamcitycouncil?lang=en
https://www.birmingham.gov.uk/info/20097/elections_and_voting/1685/local_government_election_results_may_2018/50 -
√0TheWhiteRabbit said:Cons still, er, +0 or should we manage expectations and say -0
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Tories +2.0
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They do this:Jonathan said:Labour members are currently in a bubble, talking to themselves, hyping themselves up. It happens, and there is nothing peculiar to Labour about this. The Tories were in similar position in the run up to 2017.
The key question: Now presented with a reality check, what does Labour do?
The Lib Dems have not yet managed to find a response to the reality that the coalition was not popular.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/9923562237051453440 -
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Why doesn't the government just introduce "voting ID" with a picture, address and date of birth on it and just give them out for free.
Like library cards.0 -
Do we have a projected national vote share extrapolated from yesterday's results?0
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UKIP are clearly today's big winners achieving a 100% increase on their seats last year
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Watford mayoralty held by LDs0
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... but less popular than the Black Death.Philip_Thompson said:UKIP are clearly today's big winners achieving a 100% increase on their seats last year
https://www.expressandstar.com/news/uk-news/2018/05/04/ukip-general-secretary-compares-party-to-the-black-death-after-polls-collapse/0 -
I was the poster in Shaftesbury Ward, yesterday. Labour's activists reminded me of the UKIP activists at the Newark and Rochester by-elections, who turned up en masse, but didn't actually have much to do. We had 9-12 people door-knocking in the ward from 9am, which was quite sufficient to cover the Ward twice, during the day.0 -
There's a young analyst on Sky News who's like a 25 year old version of David Butler. He's doing a good job of it IMO.0
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And Labour lost High Barnet by one vote.Sean_F said:
I was the poster in Shaftesbury Ward, yesterday. Labour's activists reminded me of the UKIP activists at the Newark and Rochester by-elections, who turned up en masse, but didn't actually have much to do. We had 9-12 people door-knocking in the ward from 9am, which was quite sufficient to cover the Ward twice, during the day.0 -
Success equals performance minus anticipation.0
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I don't think Labour should worry too much about expectation management, fundamentally all that happens after the votes are cast so its a bit irrelevant unless you're worried about an imminent leadership challenge. Looking at whether they're using their volunteers effectively is more important.
Though even inefficient use of volunteers in the local elections might be worthwhile if it serves to prepare for the next general.
Anyway next year Labour will be defending worse results, which will likely make spinning the result easier. Unless its an actual disaster, anyway.0 -
Do you guys have pictures on your library cards over there? I mean, I can see there might be a case for it if you have a lot of old, valuable books and potentially a terrorism risk (Bodleian, British Library etc) but for a normal library it sounds like a waste of time and money. Is there really that much of a personation problem at Britain's libraries?MaxPB said:Why doesn't the government just introduce "voting ID" with a picture, address and date of birth on it and just give them out for free.
Like library cards.0 -
Perhaps the lesson for Labour is that they do best when Owen Jones isn't supporting the leadership.CarlottaVance said:0 -
That is what exists in Northern Ireland. And Voter ID works there.MaxPB said:Why doesn't the government just introduce "voting ID" with a picture, address and date of birth on it and just give them out for free.
Like library cards.0 -
I wonder if there would be any mileage in the Lib Dems presenting themselves as the real conservatives and contrasting themselves with the ideological wreckers in the Tory party?Jonathan said:The Lib Dems have not yet managed to find a response to the reality that the coalition was not popular.
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Yeahbut all those photos of the activists hanging round on street corners make them look ***AWESOME*** on Twitter!0
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Nothing to see basically.
Our council is still solidly Labour with an average turnout of just over 20%, apart from our seat. But that was due to local factors. the sitting Labour councillor turfed out on a 40 odd percent turnout by an independent - the first non-Labour councillor for forty tears and it wasn't even close.0 -
No.williamglenn said:
I wonder if there would be any mileage in the Lib Dems presenting themselves as the real conservatives and contrasting themselves with the ideological wreckers in the Tory party?Jonathan said:The Lib Dems have not yet managed to find a response to the reality that the coalition was not popular.
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A lot of mileage, in particular for the members who would rapidly cover many miles distancing themselves from a Liberal party campaigning as 'Real Conservatives'williamglenn said:
I wonder if there would be any mileage in the Lib Dems presenting themselves as the real conservatives and contrasting themselves with the ideological wreckers in the Tory party?Jonathan said:The Lib Dems have not yet managed to find a response to the reality that the coalition was not popular.
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Expectation management happens before the votes are cast, no?William_H said:I don't think Labour should worry too much about expectation management, fundamentally all that happens after the votes are cast so its a bit irrelevant unless you're worried about an imminent leadership challenge. Looking at whether they're using their volunteers effectively is more important.
Though even inefficient use of volunteers in the local elections might be worthwhile if it serves to prepare for the next general.
Anyway next year Labour will be defending worse results, which will likely make spinning the result easier. Unless its an actual disaster, anyway.
Anyway, you could see this coming over the week as Owen's public pronouncements veered from triumph to despair and back again.
Owen, if you're there, a period of quiet on your part might be required.0 -
Tories and Greens doing well in Solihull.0
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If we want to be in the company of Norway, Denmark and Canada we can join them in requiring photo ID to vote like they do (required in Denmark only if you can't produce a polling card). Happy with that?rural_voter said:
Or another move to soften us up for ID cards after the Lib.Dems blocked the coalition from introducing them.DecrepitJohnL said:
You're better than this. The fear is that rather than preventing almost non-existent personation, this measure will deter or stop properly enfranchised voters.Richard_Nabavi said:It does very much look as though some Labour supporters think their party benefits from fraud. Why else are they opposing the extremely simple and non-obtrusive measures being piloted?
Cynics might suggest this is part of a package designed by Cameron and Osborne to reduce Labour's vote.
The Wikipedia list of countries with and without them is pretty telling. Do we want to be in the company of Belarus, Bulgaria and Turkey or Canada, Denmark and Norway?0 -
Paul Mason upset with 40% of the voters this morning. Labour didn't do well because the voters are racist...
https://mobile.twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/9922847008058122240 -
The management happens before the votes are cast, but the effect happens afterBannedInParis said:
Expectation management happens before the votes are cast, no?William_H said:I don't think Labour should worry too much about expectation management, fundamentally all that happens after the votes are cast so its a bit irrelevant unless you're worried about an imminent leadership challenge. Looking at whether they're using their volunteers effectively is more important.
Though even inefficient use of volunteers in the local elections might be worthwhile if it serves to prepare for the next general.
Anyway next year Labour will be defending worse results, which will likely make spinning the result easier. Unless its an actual disaster, anyway.
Anyway, you could see this coming over the week as Owen's public pronouncements veered from triumph to despair and back again.
Owen, if you're there, a period of quiet on your part might be required.0 -
Or the new Irish public services photo card which is proof of entitlement to access public services in the Republic. It didn't exist 5 years ago now 75 per cent plus of the public has one with the aim of everyone having one in the next couple of years. It's not mandatory but it's effectively so as you cannot easily apply for a passport, drivers licence or claim welfare or access health care without one.oxfordsimon said:
That is what exists in Northern Ireland. And Voter ID works there.MaxPB said:Why doesn't the government just introduce "voting ID" with a picture, address and date of birth on it and just give them out for free.
Like library cards.
If Ireland can do this - with no prior history of ID cards - why can't the UK?0 -
How long will the last UKIP councilor hand go?Philip_Thompson said:UKIP are clearly today's big winners achieving a 100% increase on their seats last year
I see that there is still one SDP and at least one Liberal Party councilor, and it is over 30 years since their merger, could the last one hand on somewhere to the 2030? like a Japanese solder after ww2?0 -
The LibDem's results are just about good enough to keep Vince Cable in place as leader.
Hur hur hur.....0 -
It's a good rule of thumb that anyone who describes their politics as "progressive" is a massive berk.Elliot said:Paul Mason upset with 40% of the voters this morning. Labour didn't do well because the voters are racist...
https://mobile.twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/9922847008058122240 -
My British Library card has a photo (and you don't half have to jump through hoops to get it). My local public library card doesn't, or for that matter my address or date of birth.edmundintokyo said:
Do you guys have pictures on your library cards over there? I mean, I can see there might be a case for it if you have a lot of old, valuable books and potentially a terrorism risk (Bodleian, British Library etc) but for a normal library it sounds like a waste of time and money. Is there really that much of a personation problem at Britain's libraries?MaxPB said:Why doesn't the government just introduce "voting ID" with a picture, address and date of birth on it and just give them out for free.
Like library cards.
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Along the lines of Alexi Sayle claiming anybody who uses the term "workshop" who isn't involved in light engineering is a c***......glw said:
It's a good rule of thumb that anyone who describes their politics as "progressive" is a massive berk.Elliot said:Paul Mason upset with 40% of the voters this morning. Labour didn't do well because the voters are racist...
https://mobile.twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/9922847008058122240 -
UKIP have won a 3rd seat, according to the BBC, but I'm not sure where.0
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is their a list anywhere of places where you do and don't need to show ID to vote? I understand that almost everywhere requires showing something, but have not seem a full list?Ishmael_Z said:
If we want to be in the company of Norway, Denmark and Canada we can join them in requiring photo ID to vote like they do (required in Denmark only if you can't produce a polling card). Happy with that?rural_voter said:
Or another move to soften us up for ID cards after the Lib.Dems blocked the coalition from introducing them.DecrepitJohnL said:
You're better than this. The fear is that rather than preventing almost non-existent personation, this measure will deter or stop properly enfranchised voters.Richard_Nabavi said:It does very much look as though some Labour supporters think their party benefits from fraud. Why else are they opposing the extremely simple and non-obtrusive measures being piloted?
Cynics might suggest this is part of a package designed by Cameron and Osborne to reduce Labour's vote.
The Wikipedia list of countries with and without them is pretty telling. Do we want to be in the company of Belarus, Bulgaria and Turkey or Canada, Denmark and Norway?0 -
Not in Shropshire. My card has no photo.edmundintokyo said:
Do you guys have pictures on your library cards over there? I mean, I can see there might be a case for it if you have a lot of old, valuable books and potentially a terrorism risk (Bodleian, British Library etc) but for a normal library it sounds like a waste of time and money. Is there really that much of a personation problem at Britain's libraries?MaxPB said:Why doesn't the government just introduce "voting ID" with a picture, address and date of birth on it and just give them out for free.
Like library cards.
(FROM LAST THREAD)
AFAIK the only common law country that has ID cards is Israel.glw said:
It's not telling at all, you simply selected countries to make a case. Lots of perfectly decent countries have ID cards.rural_voter said:The Wikipedia list of countries with and without them is pretty telling. Do we want to be in the company of Belarus, Bulgaria and Turkey or Canada, Denmark and Norway?
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Kirklees looking like it could be Lab gain from NOC.0
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... and (seemingly) gearing up for Round 2Philip_Thompson said:UKIP are clearly today's big winners achieving a 100% increase on their seats last year
"In an unlikely sounding parallel, Oakley tried to put on a brave face by comparing his party to the bubonic plague. “Think of the Black Death in the Middle Ages,” he said. “It comes along and it causes disruption, and then it goes dormant. And that’s exactly what we’re going to do. Our time isn’t finished, because Brexit is being betrayed.” "
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/04/black-death-ukip-almost-wiped-out-in-english-local-elections0 -
https://twitter.com/fperraudin/status/992350552993484800
Previously the council was Lab 97 and Con 290 -
1 Green gain in Birmingham,.....in a place called Druids Heath and Monyhull0
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I'm not sure how Labour have lost ground in Reading. It's very quickly becoming a mini-London.0
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BurnleySean_F said:
UKIP have won a 3rd seat, according to the BBC, but I'm not sure where.
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Brum is proving quite interesting due to the complete rewarding. Several veteran councillors have lost in shock results. Hard to say if Lab will do badly enough to lose controlTheScreamingEagles said:https://twitter.com/fperraudin/status/992350552993484800
Previously the council was Lab 97 and Con 290 -
How on earth are Labour doing badly in Birmingham ?!0
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If they lose control of Birmingham from that position, that’s the story of the night by a mile.TheScreamingEagles said:https://twitter.com/fperraudin/status/992350552993484800
Previously the council was Lab 97 and Con 290 -
philiph said:
A lot of mileage, in particular for the members who would rapidly cover many miles distancing themselves from a Liberal party campaigning as 'Real Conservatives'williamglenn said:
I wonder if there would be any mileage in the Lib Dems presenting themselves as the real conservatives and contrasting themselves with the ideological wreckers in the Tory party?Jonathan said:The Lib Dems have not yet managed to find a response to the reality that the coalition was not popular.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_ID_lawsBigRich said:
is their a list anywhere of places where you do and don't need to show ID to vote? I understand that almost everywhere requires showing something, but have not seem a full list?Ishmael_Z said:
If we want to be in the company of Norway, Denmark and Canada we can join them in requiring photo ID to vote like they do (required in Denmark only if you can't produce a polling card). Happy with that?rural_voter said:
Or another move to soften us up for ID cards after the Lib.Dems blocked the coalition from introducing them.DecrepitJohnL said:
You're better than this. The fear is that rather than preventing almost non-existent personation, this measure will deter or stop properly enfranchised voters.Richard_Nabavi said:It does very much look as though some Labour supporters think their party benefits from fraud. Why else are they opposing the extremely simple and non-obtrusive measures being piloted?
Cynics might suggest this is part of a package designed by Cameron and Osborne to reduce Labour's vote.
The Wikipedia list of countries with and without them is pretty telling. Do we want to be in the company of Belarus, Bulgaria and Turkey or Canada, Denmark and Norway?
but incomplete, for Denmark I had to go to
https://www.thelocal.dk/20171106/heres-how-foreigners-can-vote-in-denmarks-municipal-and-regional-elections (doesn't just apply to foreigners).0 -
That would be the result of the night, no doubt. Labour having a real problem in the West Midlands. Issues in the East Midlands too.GarethoftheVale2 said:
Brum is proving quite interesting due to the complete rewarding. Several veteran councillors have lost in shock results. Hard to say if Lab will do badly enough to lose controlTheScreamingEagles said:https://twitter.com/fperraudin/status/992350552993484800
Previously the council was Lab 97 and Con 290 -
could be a function of crap managementPulpstar said:How on earth are Labour doing badly in Birmingham ?!
people who didn't have their bins cleared for 6 weeks weren't happy0 -
Low turn outs? WWC not turning out thanks to the Corbynista effect?MarqueeMark said:
That would be the result of the night, no doubt. Labour having a real problem in the West Midlands. Issues in the East Midlands too.GarethoftheVale2 said:
Brum is proving quite interesting due to the complete rewarding. Several veteran councillors have lost in shock results. Hard to say if Lab will do badly enough to lose controlTheScreamingEagles said:https://twitter.com/fperraudin/status/992350552993484800
Previously the council was Lab 97 and Con 290 -
Perhaps they trialed the requirement to have ID to vote which:Pulpstar said:How on earth are Labour doing badly in Birmingham ?!
*Disenfranchised huge numbers of voters/stopped massive voter frode
*delete as required to match you preconceived ideas.
Jock, this is a Joke, please don't hate me! 0 -
How the hell are Labour going to lose Birmingham?!? That would make a poor night turn into a an extremely poor night.0
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So if Cons have lost Chipping Norton & Witney to Labour, will they lose Henley-on-Thames next time it's up? I'm pretty sure that Con losing HoT is one of the horseman of the apocalypse.0
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So far in Birmingham
Balsall Heath West: Labour
Bordesley Green: Labour
Castle Vale: Conservative
Druids Heath & Monyhull: Greens
Frankley Great Park: Conservative
Garretts Green: Labour
Gravelly Hill: Labour
Heartlands: Labour
King's Norton South: Labour
King's Norton North: Labour
Nechells: Labour
Newtown: Labour
Perry Common: Conservative
Pype Hayes: Labour
Shard End: Labour
Sutton Reddicap: Conservative
Yardley East: LibDem
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The results for Labour in Birmingham are less than impressive so far.0
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Agreed. On polling day you need enough activists to provide tellers at polling stations, man committee rooms and knock up and send voting reminder leaflets to party supporters yet to vote.
If you have more than that it looks like a disorganised mob and can put off voters0 -
Labour can't take victory in Harrow for granted either after Barnet.0
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A gain from Labour in BurnleySean_F said:UKIP have won a 3rd seat, according to the BBC, but I'm not sure where.
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There has been a complete re-warding, and a reduction in the number of councillors from 117 to 101, going from 3 member wards to 1 and 2 member wards. The Greens and Lib Dems will find it easier to gain seats in smaller wards than larger.Pulpstar said:How on earth are Labour doing badly in Birmingham ?!
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https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/992286222407024640
Well, that's really going happen with the Corbynistas screaming 'f off and join the tories' at anyone who isnt actually a marxist.0 -
I'm upgrading my opinion on Momentum from Wassocks to Fucking Wassocks0
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Welcome to that clubRochdalePioneers said:I'm upgrading my opinion on Momentum from Wassocks to Fucking Wassocks
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Both Yardley seats in B'ham going to the LDs.0
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Has Mark Reckess tried switching back to the Tories yet as the kipper death spiral accelerates?0
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Redditch a con gain from Labour0
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yeh, i noticed that. jesse philips in trouble?AndyJS said:Both Yardley seats in B'ham going to the LDs.
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I would have thought that if the atavists where experienced/trained enough and their was enough forethought and planing that. that more could be used. all be it with a big 'diminishing rate of return'HYUFD said:Agreed. On polling day you need enough activists to provide tellers at polling stations, man committee rooms and knock up and send voting reminder leaflets to party supporters yet to vote.
If you have more than that it looks like a disorganised mob and can put off voters
The optimum may be 8-10 activists per word, but if you only have a realistic shot in a limited number of wards.0 -
Talk of South Cambridgeshire going lib dem0
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He tried last year.Scrapheap_as_was said:Has Mark Reckess tried switching back to the Tories yet as the kipper death spiral accelerates?
Mrs May told him to get f*cked.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/05/mark-reckless-blocked-returning-conservative-party-amid-rumours/amp/0 -
Afternoon all
Rukhsana Fiaz has swept home as the new Mayor of Newham, On a 36% turnout she got 73% of the vote, Conservative on 12%, LD on 9% and the CPA candidate just edging out the Democrats & Veterans Candidate with both polling 3%.
Compared with 2014 Labour are up 12%, Conservative down 6% and the LDs up 7%.
That suggests Labour will easily win all 60 seats in the Borough but it will be interesting to see if the LD vote has improved in some of the seats contested.0 -
Difficult to believe Labour could lose Birmingham.0
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BBC spinning like a top. It’s been a bad night for an opposition hoping to show they were on the way to government. That is all.Scott_P said:0 -
and https://twitter.com/CarlJackson_LDRAndyJS said:This is the Twitter feed to watch right now:
https://twitter.com/bhamcitycouncil?lang=en&lang=en0 -
Birmingham is currently Lab 11, Con 7, Lib Dem 3, Green 1.0
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Many of us on here are activists for our respective parties. A mass canvass as the Tories did with the Bus/Abuse Tour and FuckingMomentum have been doing in the likes of Wandsworth are fine for a publicity shot. But you can't actually canvas like that.
My magic number is half a dozen. Someone on the board/app sending activists to doors, no more than 5 knocking. Any more than that and people see a large group coming up their street and hide. You know they are in but they won't answer the door.
What we have seen from MoFuckingMentum is hubris. WE'RE GOING TO SMASH THE TORIES they say, LOOK AT THIS ARMY OF ACTIVISTS sent disorganised to knock on Tory doors and knock out THEIR vote. Which is what would have happened in last year's general election had it not been for the actual professional political organisers in head office. Who have mostly now all departed...0 -
As several commentators have noted, the obvious conclusion from this result is that May can't beat Corbyn, and Corbyn can't beat May.
Will both sets of MPs elect to wait and see who falls first, or will one of them take some action to alter the equation?0 -
Also it voted LEAVE.Sean_F said:
There has been a complete re-warding, and a reduction in the number of councillors from 117 to 101, going from 3 member wards to 1 and 2 member wards. The Greens and Lib Dems will find it easier to gain seats in smaller wards than larger.Pulpstar said:How on earth are Labour doing badly in Birmingham ?!
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You're quite right. Half a dozen competent locals achieve far more than 100 outsiders.RochdalePioneers said:Many of us on here are activists for our respective parties. A mass canvass as the Tories did with the Bus/Abuse Tour and FuckingMomentum have been doing in the likes of Wandsworth are fine for a publicity shot. But you can't actually canvas like that.
My magic number is half a dozen. Someone on the board/app sending activists to doors, no more than 5 knocking. Any more than that and people see a large group coming up their street and hide. You know they are in but they won't answer the door.
What we have seen from MoFuckingMentum is hubris. WE'RE GOING TO SMASH THE TORIES they say, LOOK AT THIS ARMY OF ACTIVISTS sent disorganised to knock on Tory doors and knock out THEIR vote. Which is what would have happened in last year's general election had it not been for the actual professional political organisers in head office. Who have mostly now all departed...0 -
Indeed.glw said:
It's a good rule of thumb that anyone who describes their politics as "progressive" is a massive berk.Elliot said:Paul Mason upset with 40% of the voters this morning. Labour didn't do well because the voters are racist...
https://mobile.twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/992284700805812224
'She (Ruth Davidson) can talk with energy and authenticity about why she became a Conservative, about her belief in the party’s essentially progressive nature – and a belief that Conservatism is a cause, worth giving your time and effort to. (I’m not sure that many people would have been so persuaded listening to Philip Hammond yesterday). We’ll post the audio of the interview later.'
https://tinyurl.com/ya3pr3he
Tbf it's Fraser 'vowel strangler' Nelson making the explicit claim, but Ruthy could never be said to be backward in assuming the mantle of non-arsehole Toryism (when she's not appealing to the Orange Order or ignoring questions about her racist & bigoted elected members of course).0 -
I've checked the Wimbledon wards amongst the Merton results and there is great news for Stephen Hammond there.
He has held on to his vote share amongst Con/LD/LAB since the General Election, and there is also a 7% Labour -> Lib Dem swing, however the Lib Dems are still third for him so he'd increase his majority.0 -
Dunno, but sounds like Chukka just appeared on Sky News with virtually a sign above his head reading 'I am available.'Scott_P said:As several commentators have noted, the obvious conclusion from this result is that May can't beat Corbyn, and Corbyn can't beat May.
Will both sets of MPs elect to wait and see who falls first, or will one of them take some action to alter the equation?0 -
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