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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Motivating Labour’s huge volunteer army can be at odds with ma

SystemSystem Posts: 12,256
edited May 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Motivating Labour’s huge volunteer army can be at odds with managing election expectations

I have just got off the phone from someone who was working for the Conservative campaign yesterday in a key ward in Wandsworth which was eventually held by the party by margin of 36 votes.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    First!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,251
    Second like London Labour's expectations....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,336
    2nd like...err...
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Cons still, er, +0 or should we manage expectations and say -0
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,759
    edited May 2018
    Labour members are currently in a bubble, talking to themselves, hyping themselves up. It happens, and there is nothing peculiar to Labour about this. The Tories were in similar position in the run up to 2017.

    The key question: Now presented with a reality check, what does Labour do?

    The Lib Dems have not yet managed to find a response to the reality that the coalition was not popular.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Results coming in from B'ham:

    Castle Vale:
    Con 731
    lab 640
    LD 35
    TUSC 34

    Nechells:
    Lab 1,237
    Con 164
    LD 123

    King's Norton South:
    Lab 1,015
    Con 843
    LD 106

    Frankley Great Park:
    Con 1,019
    Lab 904
    LD 78

    https://twitter.com/bhamcitycouncil?lang=en
    https://www.birmingham.gov.uk/info/20097/elections_and_voting/1685/local_government_election_results_may_2018/5
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,108
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Cons still, er, +0 or should we manage expectations and say -0

    √0
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories +2.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,487
    Jonathan said:

    Labour members are currently in a bubble, talking to themselves, hyping themselves up. It happens, and there is nothing peculiar to Labour about this. The Tories were in similar position in the run up to 2017.

    The key question: Now presented with a reality check, what does Labour do?

    The Lib Dems have not yet managed to find a response to the reality that the coalition was not popular.

    They do this:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/992356223705145344
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,941
    AndyJS said:

    Tories +2.

    Sky says +3.
    But Labour +35
    Lib Dems +39

    UKIP -93
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,315
    Why doesn't the government just introduce "voting ID" with a picture, address and date of birth on it and just give them out for free.

    Like library cards.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Do we have a projected national vote share extrapolated from yesterday's results?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    UKIP are clearly today's big winners achieving a 100% increase on their seats last year ;)
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Watford mayoralty held by LDs
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,941
    Philip_Thompson said:

    UKIP are clearly today's big winners achieving a 100% increase on their seats last year ;)

    ... but less popular than the Black Death.
    https://www.expressandstar.com/news/uk-news/2018/05/04/ukip-general-secretary-compares-party-to-the-black-death-after-polls-collapse/
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,718

    I was the poster in Shaftesbury Ward, yesterday. Labour's activists reminded me of the UKIP activists at the Newark and Rochester by-elections, who turned up en masse, but didn't actually have much to do. We had 9-12 people door-knocking in the ward from 9am, which was quite sufficient to cover the Ward twice, during the day.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2018
    There's a young analyst on Sky News who's like a 25 year old version of David Butler. He's doing a good job of it IMO.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sean_F said:


    I was the poster in Shaftesbury Ward, yesterday. Labour's activists reminded me of the UKIP activists at the Newark and Rochester by-elections, who turned up en masse, but didn't actually have much to do. We had 9-12 people door-knocking in the ward from 9am, which was quite sufficient to cover the Ward twice, during the day.

    And Labour lost High Barnet by one vote.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,323
    https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/992311255368060929
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,323
    Success equals performance minus anticipation.
  • William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346
    I don't think Labour should worry too much about expectation management, fundamentally all that happens after the votes are cast so its a bit irrelevant unless you're worried about an imminent leadership challenge. Looking at whether they're using their volunteers effectively is more important.

    Though even inefficient use of volunteers in the local elections might be worthwhile if it serves to prepare for the next general.

    Anyway next year Labour will be defending worse results, which will likely make spinning the result easier. Unless its an actual disaster, anyway.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    MaxPB said:

    Why doesn't the government just introduce "voting ID" with a picture, address and date of birth on it and just give them out for free.

    Like library cards.

    Do you guys have pictures on your library cards over there? I mean, I can see there might be a case for it if you have a lot of old, valuable books and potentially a terrorism risk (Bodleian, British Library etc) but for a normal library it sounds like a waste of time and money. Is there really that much of a personation problem at Britain's libraries?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,812
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/05/local-election-analysis-owen-joness-success-rate/

    Perhaps the lesson for Labour is that they do best when Owen Jones isn't supporting the leadership.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    MaxPB said:

    Why doesn't the government just introduce "voting ID" with a picture, address and date of birth on it and just give them out for free.

    Like library cards.

    That is what exists in Northern Ireland. And Voter ID works there.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,323
    https://twitter.com/JRhodesPianist/status/992334560213061632
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,812
    Jonathan said:

    The Lib Dems have not yet managed to find a response to the reality that the coalition was not popular.

    I wonder if there would be any mileage in the Lib Dems presenting themselves as the real conservatives and contrasting themselves with the ideological wreckers in the Tory party?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510
    Yeahbut all those photos of the activists hanging round on street corners make them look ***AWESOME*** on Twitter!
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,367
    edited May 2018
    Nothing to see basically.

    Our council is still solidly Labour with an average turnout of just over 20%, apart from our seat. But that was due to local factors. the sitting Labour councillor turfed out on a 40 odd percent turnout by an independent - the first non-Labour councillor for forty tears and it wasn't even close.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,251
    williamglenn said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Lib Dems have not yet managed to find a response to the reality that the coalition was not popular.

    I wonder if there would be any mileage in the Lib Dems presenting themselves as the real conservatives and contrasting themselves with the ideological wreckers in the Tory party?
    No.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    williamglenn said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Lib Dems have not yet managed to find a response to the reality that the coalition was not popular.

    I wonder if there would be any mileage in the Lib Dems presenting themselves as the real conservatives and contrasting themselves with the ideological wreckers in the Tory party?
    A lot of mileage, in particular for the members who would rapidly cover many miles distancing themselves from a Liberal party campaigning as 'Real Conservatives'
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    William_H said:

    I don't think Labour should worry too much about expectation management, fundamentally all that happens after the votes are cast so its a bit irrelevant unless you're worried about an imminent leadership challenge. Looking at whether they're using their volunteers effectively is more important.

    Though even inefficient use of volunteers in the local elections might be worthwhile if it serves to prepare for the next general.

    Anyway next year Labour will be defending worse results, which will likely make spinning the result easier. Unless its an actual disaster, anyway.

    Expectation management happens before the votes are cast, no?

    Anyway, you could see this coming over the week as Owen's public pronouncements veered from triumph to despair and back again.

    Owen, if you're there, a period of quiet on your part might be required.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories and Greens doing well in Solihull.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    AndyJS said:

    Tories and Greens doing well in Solihull.

    If you mix blue and green do you get purple?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    rural_voter said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It does very much look as though some Labour supporters think their party benefits from fraud. Why else are they opposing the extremely simple and non-obtrusive measures being piloted?

    You're better than this. The fear is that rather than preventing almost non-existent personation, this measure will deter or stop properly enfranchised voters.

    Cynics might suggest this is part of a package designed by Cameron and Osborne to reduce Labour's vote.
    Or another move to soften us up for ID cards after the Lib.Dems blocked the coalition from introducing them.

    The Wikipedia list of countries with and without them is pretty telling. Do we want to be in the company of Belarus, Bulgaria and Turkey or Canada, Denmark and Norway?
    If we want to be in the company of Norway, Denmark and Canada we can join them in requiring photo ID to vote like they do (required in Denmark only if you can't produce a polling card). Happy with that?
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Paul Mason upset with 40% of the voters this morning. Labour didn't do well because the voters are racist...

    https://mobile.twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/992284700805812224
  • William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346
    BannedInParis said:

    William_H said:

    I don't think Labour should worry too much about expectation management, fundamentally all that happens after the votes are cast so its a bit irrelevant unless you're worried about an imminent leadership challenge. Looking at whether they're using their volunteers effectively is more important.

    Though even inefficient use of volunteers in the local elections might be worthwhile if it serves to prepare for the next general.

    Anyway next year Labour will be defending worse results, which will likely make spinning the result easier. Unless its an actual disaster, anyway.

    Expectation management happens before the votes are cast, no?

    Anyway, you could see this coming over the week as Owen's public pronouncements veered from triumph to despair and back again.

    Owen, if you're there, a period of quiet on your part might be required.
    The management happens before the votes are cast, but the effect happens after
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    oxfordsimon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Why doesn't the government just introduce "voting ID" with a picture, address and date of birth on it and just give them out for free.

    Like library cards.

    That is what exists in Northern Ireland. And Voter ID works there.
    Or the new Irish public services photo card which is proof of entitlement to access public services in the Republic. It didn't exist 5 years ago now 75 per cent plus of the public has one with the aim of everyone having one in the next couple of years. It's not mandatory but it's effectively so as you cannot easily apply for a passport, drivers licence or claim welfare or access health care without one.

    If Ireland can do this - with no prior history of ID cards - why can't the UK?
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Philip_Thompson said:

    UKIP are clearly today's big winners achieving a 100% increase on their seats last year ;)

    How long will the last UKIP councilor hand go?

    I see that there is still one SDP and at least one Liberal Party councilor, and it is over 30 years since their merger, could the last one hand on somewhere to the 2030? like a Japanese solder after ww2?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,251
    The LibDem's results are just about good enough to keep Vince Cable in place as leader.

    Hur hur hur.....
  • glwglw Posts: 9,993
    Elliot said:

    Paul Mason upset with 40% of the voters this morning. Labour didn't do well because the voters are racist...

    https://mobile.twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/992284700805812224

    It's a good rule of thumb that anyone who describes their politics as "progressive" is a massive berk.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    edited May 2018
    edmundintokyo said:

    MaxPB said:

    Why doesn't the government just introduce "voting ID" with a picture, address and date of birth on it and just give them out for free.

    Like library cards.

    Do you guys have pictures on your library cards over there? I mean, I can see there might be a case for it if you have a lot of old, valuable books and potentially a terrorism risk (Bodleian, British Library etc) but for a normal library it sounds like a waste of time and money. Is there really that much of a personation problem at Britain's libraries?
    My British Library card has a photo (and you don't half have to jump through hoops to get it). My local public library card doesn't, or for that matter my address or date of birth.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,251
    glw said:

    Elliot said:

    Paul Mason upset with 40% of the voters this morning. Labour didn't do well because the voters are racist...

    https://mobile.twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/992284700805812224

    It's a good rule of thumb that anyone who describes their politics as "progressive" is a massive berk.
    Along the lines of Alexi Sayle claiming anybody who uses the term "workshop" who isn't involved in light engineering is a c***......
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,718
    UKIP have won a 3rd seat, according to the BBC, but I'm not sure where.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Ishmael_Z said:

    rural_voter said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It does very much look as though some Labour supporters think their party benefits from fraud. Why else are they opposing the extremely simple and non-obtrusive measures being piloted?

    You're better than this. The fear is that rather than preventing almost non-existent personation, this measure will deter or stop properly enfranchised voters.

    Cynics might suggest this is part of a package designed by Cameron and Osborne to reduce Labour's vote.
    Or another move to soften us up for ID cards after the Lib.Dems blocked the coalition from introducing them.

    The Wikipedia list of countries with and without them is pretty telling. Do we want to be in the company of Belarus, Bulgaria and Turkey or Canada, Denmark and Norway?
    If we want to be in the company of Norway, Denmark and Canada we can join them in requiring photo ID to vote like they do (required in Denmark only if you can't produce a polling card). Happy with that?
    is their a list anywhere of places where you do and don't need to show ID to vote? I understand that almost everywhere requires showing something, but have not seem a full list?
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    edmundintokyo said:

    MaxPB said:

    Why doesn't the government just introduce "voting ID" with a picture, address and date of birth on it and just give them out for free.

    Like library cards.

    Do you guys have pictures on your library cards over there? I mean, I can see there might be a case for it if you have a lot of old, valuable books and potentially a terrorism risk (Bodleian, British Library etc) but for a normal library it sounds like a waste of time and money. Is there really that much of a personation problem at Britain's libraries?
    Not in Shropshire. My card has no photo.

    (FROM LAST THREAD)
    glw said:

    rural_voter said:

    The Wikipedia list of countries with and without them is pretty telling. Do we want to be in the company of Belarus, Bulgaria and Turkey or Canada, Denmark and Norway?

    It's not telling at all, you simply selected countries to make a case. Lots of perfectly decent countries have ID cards.
    AFAIK the only common law country that has ID cards is Israel.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,382
    Kirklees looking like it could be Lab gain from NOC.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Philip_Thompson said:

    UKIP are clearly today's big winners achieving a 100% increase on their seats last year ;)

    ... and (seemingly) gearing up for Round 2

    "In an unlikely sounding parallel, Oakley tried to put on a brave face by comparing his party to the bubonic plague. “Think of the Black Death in the Middle Ages,” he said. “It comes along and it causes disruption, and then it goes dormant. And that’s exactly what we’re going to do. Our time isn’t finished, because Brexit is being betrayed.” "

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/04/black-death-ukip-almost-wiped-out-in-english-local-elections
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,323
    https://twitter.com/fperraudin/status/992350552993484800

    Previously the council was Lab 97 and Con 29
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    1 Green gain in Birmingham,.....in a place called Druids Heath and Monyhull
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    I'm not sure how Labour have lost ground in Reading. It's very quickly becoming a mini-London.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Burnley
    Sean_F said:

    UKIP have won a 3rd seat, according to the BBC, but I'm not sure where.

  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,251
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/fperraudin/status/992350552993484800

    Previously the council was Lab 97 and Con 29

    Brum is proving quite interesting due to the complete rewarding. Several veteran councillors have lost in shock results. Hard to say if Lab will do badly enough to lose control
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    How on earth are Labour doing badly in Birmingham ?!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/fperraudin/status/992350552993484800

    Previously the council was Lab 97 and Con 29

    If they lose control of Birmingham from that position, that’s the story of the night by a mile.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,812
    philiph said:

    williamglenn said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Lib Dems have not yet managed to find a response to the reality that the coalition was not popular.

    I wonder if there would be any mileage in the Lib Dems presenting themselves as the real conservatives and contrasting themselves with the ideological wreckers in the Tory party?
    A lot of mileage, in particular for the members who would rapidly cover many miles distancing themselves from a Liberal party campaigning as 'Real Conservatives'
    :lol:
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,382
    Pro_Rata said:

    Kirklees looking like it could be Lab gain from NOC.

    Confirmed: Lab were 2 short, gained Ashbrow from expellee and Golcar and Colne Valley (ward) from LD.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,487
    https://twitter.com/CarlJackson_LDR/status/992364463276863489
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    BigRich said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rural_voter said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It does very much look as though some Labour supporters think their party benefits from fraud. Why else are they opposing the extremely simple and non-obtrusive measures being piloted?

    You're better than this. The fear is that rather than preventing almost non-existent personation, this measure will deter or stop properly enfranchised voters.

    Cynics might suggest this is part of a package designed by Cameron and Osborne to reduce Labour's vote.
    Or another move to soften us up for ID cards after the Lib.Dems blocked the coalition from introducing them.

    The Wikipedia list of countries with and without them is pretty telling. Do we want to be in the company of Belarus, Bulgaria and Turkey or Canada, Denmark and Norway?
    If we want to be in the company of Norway, Denmark and Canada we can join them in requiring photo ID to vote like they do (required in Denmark only if you can't produce a polling card). Happy with that?
    is their a list anywhere of places where you do and don't need to show ID to vote? I understand that almost everywhere requires showing something, but have not seem a full list?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_ID_laws

    but incomplete, for Denmark I had to go to
    https://www.thelocal.dk/20171106/heres-how-foreigners-can-vote-in-denmarks-municipal-and-regional-elections (doesn't just apply to foreigners).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,251
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/fperraudin/status/992350552993484800

    Previously the council was Lab 97 and Con 29

    Brum is proving quite interesting due to the complete rewarding. Several veteran councillors have lost in shock results. Hard to say if Lab will do badly enough to lose control
    That would be the result of the night, no doubt. Labour having a real problem in the West Midlands. Issues in the East Midlands too.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,689
    Pulpstar said:

    How on earth are Labour doing badly in Birmingham ?!

    could be a function of crap management

    people who didn't have their bins cleared for 6 weeks weren't happy
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,487
    MarqueeMark said:

    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/fperraudin/status/992350552993484800

    Previously the council was Lab 97 and Con 29

    Brum is proving quite interesting due to the complete rewarding. Several veteran councillors have lost in shock results. Hard to say if Lab will do badly enough to lose control
    That would be the result of the night, no doubt. Labour having a real problem in the West Midlands. Issues in the East Midlands too.
    Low turn outs? WWC not turning out thanks to the Corbynista effect?
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Pulpstar said:

    How on earth are Labour doing badly in Birmingham ?!

    Perhaps they trialed the requirement to have ID to vote which:

    *Disenfranchised huge numbers of voters/stopped massive voter frode

    *delete as required to match you preconceived ideas.



    Jock, this is a Joke, please don't hate me! ;););)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,315
    How the hell are Labour going to lose Birmingham?!? That would make a poor night turn into a an extremely poor night.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited May 2018
    So if Cons have lost Chipping Norton & Witney to Labour, will they lose Henley-on-Thames next time it's up? I'm pretty sure that Con losing HoT is one of the horseman of the apocalypse.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    So far in Birmingham

    Balsall Heath West: Labour
    Bordesley Green: Labour
    Castle Vale: Conservative
    Druids Heath & Monyhull: Greens
    Frankley Great Park: Conservative
    Garretts Green: Labour
    Gravelly Hill: Labour
    Heartlands: Labour
    King's Norton South: Labour
    King's Norton North: Labour
    Nechells: Labour
    Newtown: Labour
    Perry Common: Conservative
    Pype Hayes: Labour
    Shard End: Labour
    Sutton Reddicap: Conservative
    Yardley East: LibDem
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2018
    The results for Labour in Birmingham are less than impressive so far.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    How on earth are Labour doing badly in Birmingham ?!

    The first new boundaries for 35 years certainly helps minor parties to make an impact IMO.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,595
    Agreed. On polling day you need enough activists to provide tellers at polling stations, man committee rooms and knock up and send voting reminder leaflets to party supporters yet to vote.

    If you have more than that it looks like a disorganised mob and can put off voters
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour can't take victory in Harrow for granted either after Barnet.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Sean_F said:

    UKIP have won a 3rd seat, according to the BBC, but I'm not sure where.

    A gain from Labour in Burnley
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,718
    Pulpstar said:

    How on earth are Labour doing badly in Birmingham ?!

    There has been a complete re-warding, and a reduction in the number of councillors from 117 to 101, going from 3 member wards to 1 and 2 member wards. The Greens and Lib Dems will find it easier to gain seats in smaller wards than larger.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,487
    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/992286222407024640

    Well, that's really going happen with the Corbynistas screaming 'f off and join the tories' at anyone who isnt actually a marxist.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,114
    I'm upgrading my opinion on Momentum from Wassocks to Fucking Wassocks
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    RochdalePioneers said:

    I'm upgrading my opinion on Momentum from Wassocks to Fucking Wassocks

    Welcome to that club
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Both Yardley seats in B'ham going to the LDs.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/992371782710685696
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Has Mark Reckess tried switching back to the Tories yet as the kipper death spiral accelerates?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Redditch a con gain from Labour
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/992372332965613568
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    This is the Twitter feed to watch right now:

    https://twitter.com/bhamcitycouncil?lang=en&lang=en
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,487
    AndyJS said:

    Both Yardley seats in B'ham going to the LDs.

    yeh, i noticed that. jesse philips in trouble?
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    HYUFD said:

    Agreed. On polling day you need enough activists to provide tellers at polling stations, man committee rooms and knock up and send voting reminder leaflets to party supporters yet to vote.

    If you have more than that it looks like a disorganised mob and can put off voters

    I would have thought that if the atavists where experienced/trained enough and their was enough forethought and planing that. that more could be used. all be it with a big 'diminishing rate of return'

    The optimum may be 8-10 activists per word, but if you only have a realistic shot in a limited number of wards.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Talk of South Cambridgeshire going lib dem
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,323
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Has Mark Reckess tried switching back to the Tories yet as the kipper death spiral accelerates?

    He tried last year.

    Mrs May told him to get f*cked.


    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/05/mark-reckless-blocked-returning-conservative-party-amid-rumours/amp/
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,055
    Afternoon all :)

    Rukhsana Fiaz has swept home as the new Mayor of Newham, On a 36% turnout she got 73% of the vote, Conservative on 12%, LD on 9% and the CPA candidate just edging out the Democrats & Veterans Candidate with both polling 3%.

    Compared with 2014 Labour are up 12%, Conservative down 6% and the LDs up 7%.

    That suggests Labour will easily win all 60 seats in the Borough but it will be interesting to see if the LD vote has improved in some of the seats contested.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    https://twitter.com/BhamCityCouncil/status/992372635840413696
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Difficult to believe Labour could lose Birmingham.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,016
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/992371782710685696

    BBC spinning like a top. It’s been a bad night for an opposition hoping to show they were on the way to government. That is all.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,487
    AndyJS said:

    This is the Twitter feed to watch right now:

    https://twitter.com/bhamcitycouncil?lang=en&lang=en

    and https://twitter.com/CarlJackson_LDR
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,718
    Birmingham is currently Lab 11, Con 7, Lib Dem 3, Green 1.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/992373444112191489
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,114
    Many of us on here are activists for our respective parties. A mass canvass as the Tories did with the Bus/Abuse Tour and FuckingMomentum have been doing in the likes of Wandsworth are fine for a publicity shot. But you can't actually canvas like that.

    My magic number is half a dozen. Someone on the board/app sending activists to doors, no more than 5 knocking. Any more than that and people see a large group coming up their street and hide. You know they are in but they won't answer the door.

    What we have seen from MoFuckingMentum is hubris. WE'RE GOING TO SMASH THE TORIES they say, LOOK AT THIS ARMY OF ACTIVISTS sent disorganised to knock on Tory doors and knock out THEIR vote. Which is what would have happened in last year's general election had it not been for the actual professional political organisers in head office. Who have mostly now all departed...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    As several commentators have noted, the obvious conclusion from this result is that May can't beat Corbyn, and Corbyn can't beat May.

    Will both sets of MPs elect to wait and see who falls first, or will one of them take some action to alter the equation?
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How on earth are Labour doing badly in Birmingham ?!

    There has been a complete re-warding, and a reduction in the number of councillors from 117 to 101, going from 3 member wards to 1 and 2 member wards. The Greens and Lib Dems will find it easier to gain seats in smaller wards than larger.
    Also it voted LEAVE.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,718
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Many of us on here are activists for our respective parties. A mass canvass as the Tories did with the Bus/Abuse Tour and FuckingMomentum have been doing in the likes of Wandsworth are fine for a publicity shot. But you can't actually canvas like that.

    My magic number is half a dozen. Someone on the board/app sending activists to doors, no more than 5 knocking. Any more than that and people see a large group coming up their street and hide. You know they are in but they won't answer the door.

    What we have seen from MoFuckingMentum is hubris. WE'RE GOING TO SMASH THE TORIES they say, LOOK AT THIS ARMY OF ACTIVISTS sent disorganised to knock on Tory doors and knock out THEIR vote. Which is what would have happened in last year's general election had it not been for the actual professional political organisers in head office. Who have mostly now all departed...

    You're quite right. Half a dozen competent locals achieve far more than 100 outsiders.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,336
    glw said:

    Elliot said:

    Paul Mason upset with 40% of the voters this morning. Labour didn't do well because the voters are racist...

    https://mobile.twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/992284700805812224

    It's a good rule of thumb that anyone who describes their politics as "progressive" is a massive berk.
    Indeed.

    'She (Ruth Davidson) can talk with energy and authenticity about why she became a Conservative, about her belief in the party’s essentially progressive nature – and a belief that Conservatism is a cause, worth giving your time and effort to. (I’m not sure that many people would have been so persuaded listening to Philip Hammond yesterday). We’ll post the audio of the interview later.'

    https://tinyurl.com/ya3pr3he

    Tbf it's Fraser 'vowel strangler' Nelson making the explicit claim, but Ruthy could never be said to be backward in assuming the mantle of non-arsehole Toryism (when she's not appealing to the Orange Order or ignoring questions about her racist & bigoted elected members of course).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    I've checked the Wimbledon wards amongst the Merton results and there is great news for Stephen Hammond there.
    He has held on to his vote share amongst Con/LD/LAB since the General Election, and there is also a 7% Labour -> Lib Dem swing, however the Lib Dems are still third for him so he'd increase his majority.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,487
    Scott_P said:

    As several commentators have noted, the obvious conclusion from this result is that May can't beat Corbyn, and Corbyn can't beat May.

    Will both sets of MPs elect to wait and see who falls first, or will one of them take some action to alter the equation?

    Dunno, but sounds like Chukka just appeared on Sky News with virtually a sign above his head reading 'I am available.'
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/992374747538259968
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,487
    Expectations again:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/992374242137268224
This discussion has been closed.