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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Motivating Labour’s huge volunteer army can be at odds with ma

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    I've checked the Wimbledon wards amongst the Merton results and there is great news for Stephen Hammond there.
    He has held on to his vote share amongst Con/LD/LAB since the General Election, and there is also a 7% Labour -> Lib Dem swing, however the Lib Dems are still third for him so he'd increase his majority.

    The Tories gained a couple of seats from Labour in Merton which I don't think anyone was expecting.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Looking at the feed Labour seem to be pulling away in Brum
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've checked the Wimbledon wards amongst the Merton results and there is great news for Stephen Hammond there.
    He has held on to his vote share amongst Con/LD/LAB since the General Election, and there is also a 7% Labour -> Lib Dem swing, however the Lib Dems are still third for him so he'd increase his majority.

    The Tories gained a couple of seats from Labour in Merton which I don't think anyone was expecting.
    I've not looked at the 2014 results, just comparing 2018 to electoral calculus.

    The Tory councillor in Abbey sticks out like a sore (For Labour) thumb.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    In cricket news Joe Root, Jonny Bairstow, Tom Westley, and Alastair Cook have fallen for seven runs between them this morning. Yorkshire skittled for 50.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    felix said:

    Looking at the feed Labour seem to be pulling away in Brum

    Aston and Handsworth results rolling in :) ?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,426
    Sean_F said:

    Many of us on here are activists for our respective parties. A mass canvass as the Tories did with the Bus/Abuse Tour and FuckingMomentum have been doing in the likes of Wandsworth are fine for a publicity shot. But you can't actually canvas like that.

    My magic number is half a dozen. Someone on the board/app sending activists to doors, no more than 5 knocking. Any more than that and people see a large group coming up their street and hide. You know they are in but they won't answer the door.

    What we have seen from MoFuckingMentum is hubris. WE'RE GOING TO SMASH THE TORIES they say, LOOK AT THIS ARMY OF ACTIVISTS sent disorganised to knock on Tory doors and knock out THEIR vote. Which is what would have happened in last year's general election had it not been for the actual professional political organisers in head office. Who have mostly now all departed...

    You're quite right. Half a dozen competent locals achieve far more than 100 outsiders.
    I would be interesting to get reports of how the mass canvas actually went as far as the individual one-to-one doorstep conversations went. Owen's army of momentum look to be in the main very young, student-types. Very sincere and enthusiastic no doubt, but how did they deal with the average voters usual 'they're all the same', 'what's the point', 'i don't follow it mate', 'when you gonna stop dogs shitting on my path' etc etc. Must have been quite a come down.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    felix said:

    Looking at the feed Labour seem to be pulling away in Brum

    There are a lot of wards still to come.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,426
    AndyJS said:

    felix said:

    Looking at the feed Labour seem to be pulling away in Brum

    There are a lot of wards still to come.
    Single seat wards are first I think.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    If Corbyn decides an early General Election isn't in his interests, it will be interesting to see how it influences his Brexit strategy. Perhaps a second referendum will start to have more appeal for him.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    Lab Gain Handsworth Ward.

    The bit I'm confused about here is 'Gain'. I can't work out which other party could possibly have it before ?
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Press Association figures against last week rather than 2014:

    Conservatives: 31 councils; 892 seats (-26)

    Labour: 52 councils (-1); 1,444 seats (+59)

    LibDems: 4 councils (+1); 327 seats (+40)

    Green: 22 seats (+7)

    UKIP: 3 seats (-47)
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618

    If Corbyn decides an early General Election isn't in his interests, it will be interesting to see how it influences his Brexit strategy. Perhaps a second referendum will start to have more appeal for him.

    I know this might be a bit pointless but that doesn't make any sense. Labour are losing out to the Tories because they are being seen as backsliding on Brexit, offering a second referendum would be suicide. You might want that, but reality is not the same as what you want. In fact, this might make Corbyn feel as though he was right to pursue a harder Brexit before he got ambushed into supporting the CU by Starmer and the other Labour remainers.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    Pulpstar said:

    Lab Gain Handsworth Ward.

    The bit I'm confused about here is 'Gain'. I can't work out which other party could possibly have it before ?

    New boundaries, technically everything is a gain.
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    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Pulpstar said:

    Lab Gain Handsworth Ward.

    The bit I'm confused about here is 'Gain'. I can't work out which other party could possibly have it before ?

    I think GAIN is wrong. There have been boundary changes.
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    BigRich said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    It does very much look as though some Labour supporters think their party benefits from fraud. Why else are they opposing the extremely simple and non-obtrusive measures being piloted?

    You're better than this. The fear is that rather than preventing almost non-existent personation, this measure will deter or stop properly enfranchised voters.

    Cynics might suggest this is part of a package designed by Cameron and Osborne to reduce Labour's vote.
    Or another move to soften us up for ID cards after the Lib.Dems blocked the coalition from introducing them.

    The Wikipedia list of countries with and without them is pretty telling. Do we want to be in the company of Belarus, Bulgaria and Turkey or Canada, Denmark and Norway?
    If we want to be in the company of Norway, Denmark and Canada we can join them in requiring photo ID to vote like they do (required in Denmark only if you can't produce a polling card). Happy with that?
    is their a list anywhere of places where you do and don't need to show ID to vote? I understand that almost everywhere requires showing something, but have not seem a full list?
    Canada in fact appears to allow two other alternatives to photo ID, including

    producing documents with your address on
    or
    swearing an oath that you are John Smith of 3 Acacia Avenue.

    http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=vot&dir=ids&document=index&lang=e

    I might compromise on either having to produce a polling card or affirm. This could be introduced voluntarily in districts where the returning officer thinks fraud is a risk.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    MaxPB said:

    If Corbyn decides an early General Election isn't in his interests, it will be interesting to see how it influences his Brexit strategy. Perhaps a second referendum will start to have more appeal for him.

    I know this might be a bit pointless but that doesn't make any sense. Labour are losing out to the Tories because they are being seen as backsliding on Brexit, offering a second referendum would be suicide. You might want that, but reality is not the same as what you want. In fact, this might make Corbyn feel as though he was right to pursue a harder Brexit before he got ambushed into supporting the CU by Starmer and the other Labour remainers.
    I don't think this analysis is correct. There is very little evidence of LAB > CON switching going on. If anything Corbyn's Brexit policy is turning off Remainers.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Scott_P said:

    As several commentators have noted, the obvious conclusion from this result is that May can't beat Corbyn, and Corbyn can't beat May.

    Will both sets of MPs elect to wait and see who falls first, or will one of them take some action to alter the equation?

    Dunno, but sounds like Chukka just appeared on Sky News with virtually a sign above his head reading 'I am available.'
    Until he changes his mind ... again
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,727

    Talk of South Cambridgeshire going lib dem

    05/04/2018 12:54
    Tories could lose out
    South Cambridgeshire MP Heidi Allen has said it's possible that the Conservative Party could lose control of South Cambridgeshire District Council today.

    Brexit was top of most people's concerns on the doorstep according to the MP and could be the reason for the shift.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Looking at the results from West Midlands - not great for Labour would be charitable
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    Lab Gain Handsworth Ward.

    The bit I'm confused about here is 'Gain'. I can't work out which other party could possibly have it before ?

    They're describing every seat as a "gain" because of the new boundaries. It's annoying.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,713
    Well I achieved a huge 1.5% swing in my favour on a reduced turnout. And, as expected, I was trounced.

    First time I've attended a count, it was an interesting experience.

    Respect to those who make the whole process smooth and efficient.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lab Gain Handsworth Ward.

    The bit I'm confused about here is 'Gain'. I can't work out which other party could possibly have it before ?

    They're describing every seat as a "gain" because of the new boundaries. It's annoying.
    This is the Press Association. They always do it when there have been boundary changes. Best figures are the BBC ones
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    Talk of South Cambridgeshire going lib dem

    05/04/2018 12:54
    Tories could lose out
    South Cambridgeshire MP Heidi Allen has said it's possible that the Conservative Party could lose control of South Cambridgeshire District Council today.

    Brexit was top of most people's concerns on the doorstep according to the MP and could be the reason for the shift.
    Heidi Allen is pro-Remain, I wonder if that colours her view. We will know soon enough
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lab Gain Handsworth Ward.

    The bit I'm confused about here is 'Gain'. I can't work out which other party could possibly have it before ?

    They're describing every seat as a "gain" because of the new boundaries. It's annoying.
    This is the Press Association. They always do it when there have been boundary changes. Best figures are the BBC ones

    BBC not providing live updates to their table though.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cpr6g35nne1t/birmingham-city-council

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    Scott_P said:
    Not to be confused with left winger Heidi Allen ;)
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    I dunno, "We discipline people for racism" is potentially quite a sellable proposition at the moment.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,337

    Well I achieved a huge 1.5% swing in my favour on a reduced turnout. And, as expected, I was trounced.

    Commiserations / congratulations...

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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,853
    Scott_P said:
    And the slew of good riddance messages from lefties is already underway on Twitter.

    Lewisham E by-election probably not a big betting event tbh.
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    Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438
    I'm very pleased with the Lincoln results. We Lib Dems achieved huge increases in our vote share in both of the Labour held wards that we targeted - coming from 4th place to 2nd place in one of them and moving into a close 3rd in the other. We ran paper campaigns in the other 9 wards so nothing happened for us in those. The results in Carholme and in Abbey certainly show the difference a good campaign makes. It'll be all to play for when the same wards come up again next year.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,446
    Ken needs to take things one goose-step at a time :lol:
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Backbencher Jess Phillips slammed the leader's acolytes for portraying 'failure as victory', while another senior MP told MailOnline Labour was now seen as the 'nasty party

    Yep - Labour the nasty party
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    So how have the pollsters predictions worked out this time???
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Ken needs to take things one goose-step at a time :lol:
    a real lol moment - thanks Sunil
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pro_Rata said:

    Scott_P said:
    And the slew of good riddance messages from lefties is already underway on Twitter.

    Lewisham E by-election probably not a big betting event tbh.
    Nothing to do with Heidi Alexander, but Lewisham East happens to include the street where the burglar was killed recently.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2018

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lab Gain Handsworth Ward.

    The bit I'm confused about here is 'Gain'. I can't work out which other party could possibly have it before ?

    They're describing every seat as a "gain" because of the new boundaries. It's annoying.
    This is the Press Association. They always do it when there have been boundary changes. Best figures are the BBC ones
    Thanks, I'll use those.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,967

    Ken needs to take things one goose-step at a time :lol:
    Say what you like about Hitler, but he was a great interior decorator.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    With 126 out of 150 declared, Labour are still down by one council. So are the Tories.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cz3nmp2eyxgt/england-local-elections-2018
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    AndyJS said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Scott_P said:
    And the slew of good riddance messages from lefties is already underway on Twitter.

    Lewisham E by-election probably not a big betting event tbh.
    Nothing to do with Heidi Alexander, but Lewisham East happens to include the street where the burglar was killed recently.
    Yes, she has an alibi.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,387
    You're dragged away by work for only a couple of hours and UKIP win another seat! Is there going to be no end to the excitement?

    I am surprised to see the Tories still in positive territory too. I would have expected London boroughs to have dragged them down by now.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,446

    Well I achieved a huge 1.5% swing in my favour on a reduced turnout. And, as expected, I was trounced.

    First time I've attended a count, it was an interesting experience.

    Respect to those who make the whole process smooth and efficient.

    "You lost today, kid. But it doesn't mean you have to like it!"
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,899
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,368
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How on earth are Labour doing badly in Birmingham ?!

    There has been a complete re-warding, and a reduction in the number of councillors from 117 to 101, going from 3 member wards to 1 and 2 member wards. The Greens and Lib Dems will find it easier to gain seats in smaller wards than larger.
    And the PA habit of describing every seat for any party as a "gain" after re-warding is confusing. Birmingham is not suddenly going Tory. Or LibDem.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    So how have the pollsters predictions worked out this time???

    The only local election poll was in London and we haven't got all the results in yet from the capital.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How on earth are Labour doing badly in Birmingham ?!

    There has been a complete re-warding, and a reduction in the number of councillors from 117 to 101, going from 3 member wards to 1 and 2 member wards. The Greens and Lib Dems will find it easier to gain seats in smaller wards than larger.
    And the PA habit of describing every seat for any party as a "gain" after re-warding is confusing. Birmingham is not suddenly going Tory. Or LibDem.
    Outside chance of it going rainbow, at best a Labour slim majority
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    AndyJS said:

    With 126 out of 150 declared, Labour are still down by one council. So are the Tories.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cz3nmp2eyxgt/england-local-elections-2018

    Given that local government uses the FPTP system, it would be useful to know the percentage vote.

    It's theoretically possible for a party to win all wards by 55/45% and produce a one party state.

    Anyone know if the sole Green councillor survived here?

    https://islington.greenparty.org.uk/news/2018/04/20/caroline-lucas-visits-highbury/
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Sean_F said:

    Ken needs to take things one goose-step at a time :lol:
    Say what you like about Hitler, but he was a great interior decorator.
    "Hitler. There was a painter. He could paint an entire apartment in one afternoon. Two coats!"
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    AndyJS said:

    So how have the pollsters predictions worked out this time???

    The only local election poll was in London and we haven't got all the results in yet from the capital.
    How is the poll looking given what we already know???
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    El_SidEl_Sid Posts: 145

    How is the poll looking given what we already know???

    Just looking at NEV, it's a bit closer than the GE but would still put Tories as the biggest party, which is roughly what the national polls are telling us.

    Given that it's a local election in the early stages of a Parliament, you'd expect the Opposition to drop 3-4 points and the governing party to gain 6 points in the subsequent GE.

    At this stage of the electoral cycle Labour really need to be doing better if they're to win in 2022.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    These results provide little to get excited about - and certainly match my own overall expctations.It is almost always a mistake to extrapolate too much from them regarding the likely implications for a General Election. Here in Norwich Labour tends to outperform - and the Tories underperform - at Local Elections, whilst the opposite tends to be true of Wandsworth - and indeed Birmingham.
    Many of the comments made concerning this stage of the electoral cycle are wide of the mark. Comparisons with Labour making circa 1800 gains in 1995 are prety irrelevant - if only because Labour went on to win a 179 majority in 1997 rather than a bare majority. 1995 was also a mere two years before a General Election - ie truly midterm - whilst May 2022 is still four years away.Going further back , Labour faced much bleaker results in the Local Elections of both 1960 & 1961 - yet still went on to win in 1964.
    Whilst it is entirely appropriate that criticisms be made of Anti-Semitic conduct in Labour ranks, those who made such damning comments might now be vulnerable - in the light of Labour's underperformance in Barnet - to the charge of having deliberately sought to undermine Corbyn by an act of electoral sabotage. Why were such comments - and the resultant row - not delayed until mid- May to the post election period?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    The Tories still have a net gain of councillors? Not bad....
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,387

    Many of us on here are activists for our respective parties. A mass canvass as the Tories did with the Bus/Abuse Tour and FuckingMomentum have been doing in the likes of Wandsworth are fine for a publicity shot. But you can't actually canvas like that.

    My magic number is half a dozen. Someone on the board/app sending activists to doors, no more than 5 knocking. Any more than that and people see a large group coming up their street and hide. You know they are in but they won't answer the door.

    What we have seen from MoFuckingMentum is hubris. WE'RE GOING TO SMASH THE TORIES they say, LOOK AT THIS ARMY OF ACTIVISTS sent disorganised to knock on Tory doors and knock out THEIR vote. Which is what would have happened in last year's general election had it not been for the actual professional political organisers in head office. Who have mostly now all departed...

    Spot on. When I am in a canvassing group bigger than 6 I feel seriously tempted to go home because I am going to do a lot more walking than talking. It just feels incredibly inefficient.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422
    Good chance that Dan Jarvis will be forced into a second round in the S Yorks mayoral vote. Currently running at 45% from Doncaster and Rotherham.
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    justin124 said:

    These results provide little to get excited about - and certainly match my own overall expctations.It is almost always a mistake to extrapolate too much from them regarding the likely implications for a General Election. Here in Norwich Labour tends to outperform - and the Tories underperform - at Local Elections, whilst the opposite tends to be true of Wandsworth - and indeed Birmingham.
    Many of the comments made concerning this stage of the electoral cycle are wide of the mark. Comparisons with Labour making circa 1800 gains in 1995 are prety irrelevant - if only because Labour went on to win a 179 majority in 1997 rather than a bare majority. 1995 was also a mere two years before a General Election - ie truly midterm - whilst May 2022 is still four years away.Going further back , Labour faced much bleaker results in the Local Elections of both 1960 & 1961 - yet still went on to win in 1964.
    Whilst it is entirely appropriate that criticisms be made of Anti-Semitic conduct in Labour ranks, those who made such damning comments might now be vulnerable - in the light of Labour's underperformance in Barnet - to the charge of having deliberately sought to undermine Corbyn by an act of electoral sabotage. Why were such comments - and the resultant row - not delayed until mid- May to the post election period?

    In answer to that last question "let's keep quiet about this and not make waves until after the local elections" doesn't have a great ring to it does it?
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,894
    AndyJS said:


    The Tories gained a couple of seats from Labour in Merton which I don't think anyone was expecting.

    The Liberal Democrats gained five seats in Merton including seats from the Conservatives in Dundonald and Trinity Ward as well as regaining all three West Barnes seats.

    Was anyone expecting that ?

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    El_SidEl_Sid Posts: 145
    justin124 said:

    1995 was also a mere two years before a General Election - ie truly midterm - whilst May 2022 is still four years away....

    Whilst it is entirely appropriate that criticisms be made of Anti-Semitic conduct in Labour ranks, those who made such damning comments might now be vulnerable - in the light of Labour's underperformance in Barnet - to the charge of having deliberately sought to undermine Corbyn by an act of electoral sabotage. Why were such comments - and the resultant row - not delayed until mid- May to the post election period?

    The timing is irrelevant - "historically local elections four years before a general election are no better or worse predictors of future elections than those only one year before."
    http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-impact/what-do-the-2016-local-elections-tell-us-about-what-might-happen-in-2020/

    The anti-semitic thing is entirely on the Labour leadership - they could have shut it down quickly, but instead keep making lily-livered excuses that has allowed it to fester. Either they're incompetent or sympathisers.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    El_Sid said:

    justin124 said:

    1995 was also a mere two years before a General Election - ie truly midterm - whilst May 2022 is still four years away....

    Whilst it is entirely appropriate that criticisms be made of Anti-Semitic conduct in Labour ranks, those who made such damning comments might now be vulnerable - in the light of Labour's underperformance in Barnet - to the charge of having deliberately sought to undermine Corbyn by an act of electoral sabotage. Why were such comments - and the resultant row - not delayed until mid- May to the post election period?

    The timing is irrelevant - "historically local elections four years before a general election are no better or worse predictors of future elections than those only one year before."
    http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-impact/what-do-the-2016-local-elections-tell-us-about-what-might-happen-in-2020/

    The anti-semitic thing is entirely on the Labour leadership - they could have shut it down quickly, but instead keep making lily-livered excuses that has allowed it to fester. Either they're incompetent or sympathisers.
    or both
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,387
    AndyJS said:

    With 126 out of 150 declared, Labour are still down by one council. So are the Tories.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cz3nmp2eyxgt/england-local-elections-2018

    Not any more. Tories gain Redditch.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422
    El_Sid said:

    justin124 said:

    1995 was also a mere two years before a General Election - ie truly midterm - whilst May 2022 is still four years away....

    Whilst it is entirely appropriate that criticisms be made of Anti-Semitic conduct in Labour ranks, those who made such damning comments might now be vulnerable - in the light of Labour's underperformance in Barnet - to the charge of having deliberately sought to undermine Corbyn by an act of electoral sabotage. Why were such comments - and the resultant row - not delayed until mid- May to the post election period?

    The timing is irrelevant - "historically local elections four years before a general election are no better or worse predictors of future elections than those only one year before."
    http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-impact/what-do-the-2016-local-elections-tell-us-about-what-might-happen-in-2020/

    The anti-semitic thing is entirely on the Labour leadership - they could have shut it down quickly, but instead keep making lily-livered excuses that has allowed it to fester. Either they're incompetent or sympathisers.
    Either way, the likelihood is that the issue won't go away.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited May 2018

    justin124 said:

    These results provide little to get excited about - and certainly match my own overall expctations.It is almost always a mistake to extrapolate too much from them regarding the likely implications for a General Election. Here in Norwich Labour tends to outperform - and the Tories underperform - at Local Elections, whilst the opposite tends to be true of Wandsworth - and indeed Birmingham.
    Many of the comments made concerning this stage of the electoral cycle are wide of the mark. Comparisons with Labour making circa 1800 gains in 1995 are prety irrelevant - if only because Labour went on to win a 179 majority in 1997 rather than a bare majority. 1995 was also a mere two years before a General Election - ie truly midterm - whilst May 2022 is still four years away.Going further back , Labour faced much bleaker results in the Local Elections of both 1960 & 1961 - yet still went on to win in 1964.
    Whilst it is entirely appropriate that criticisms be made of Anti-Semitic conduct in Labour ranks, those who made such damning comments might now be vulnerable - in the light of Labour's underperformance in Barnet - to the charge of having deliberately sought to undermine Corbyn by an act of electoral sabotage. Why were such comments - and the resultant row - not delayed until mid- May to the post election period?

    In answer to that last question "let's keep quiet about this and not make waves until after the local elections" doesn't have a great ring to it does it?
    But it is how politicians normally operate! To make highly critical comments like that just a few weeks ahead of important elections seems a bit odd - some would say suspicious. Such statements could have been uttered next week - and the failure to await a less sensitive moment is bound to raise some questions as to what motivated the people concerned.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    El_Sid said:

    justin124 said:

    1995 was also a mere two years before a General Election - ie truly midterm - whilst May 2022 is still four years away....

    Whilst it is entirely appropriate that criticisms be made of Anti-Semitic conduct in Labour ranks, those who made such damning comments might now be vulnerable - in the light of Labour's underperformance in Barnet - to the charge of having deliberately sought to undermine Corbyn by an act of electoral sabotage. Why were such comments - and the resultant row - not delayed until mid- May to the post election period?

    The timing is irrelevant - "historically local elections four years before a general election are no better or worse predictors of future elections than those only one year before."
    http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-impact/what-do-the-2016-local-elections-tell-us-about-what-might-happen-in-2020/

    The anti-semitic thing is entirely on the Labour leadership - they could have shut it down quickly, but instead keep making lily-livered excuses that has allowed it to fester. Either they're incompetent or sympathisers.
    I don't disagree at all , but that begs the question as to why the critics spoke out when they did.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    stodge said:

    AndyJS said:


    The Tories gained a couple of seats from Labour in Merton which I don't think anyone was expecting.

    The Liberal Democrats gained five seats in Merton including seats from the Conservatives in Dundonald and Trinity Ward as well as regaining all three West Barnes seats.

    Was anyone expecting that ?

    They were on the VoteUK forum.
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    blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Ooooooooh Jeeeeeerrrreeeeemmmy Coooooooooooorbyn!
    You suuuuuuuck at loooooooocal eleeeeeeections! :)

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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    .
    justin124 said:


    Whilst it is entirely appropriate that criticisms be made of Anti-Semitic conduct in Labour ranks, those who made such damning comments might now be vulnerable - in the light of Labour's underperformance in Barnet - to the charge of having deliberately sought to undermine Corbyn by an act of electoral sabotage. Why were such comments - and the resultant row - not delayed until mid- May to the post election period?


    Criticism of Corbyn's toleration of anti-Semitism have been made before now but have been ignored by Corbyn.

    The only way to get him engaged with the issue appears to have been to make an issue of the matter during an election.

    He only has himself to blame for them being raised now as he could have dealt with the issue quietly at any point over the last few years,

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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,446
    stodge said:

    AndyJS said:


    The Tories gained a couple of seats from Labour in Merton which I don't think anyone was expecting.

    The Liberal Democrats gained five seats in Merton including seats from the Conservatives in Dundonald and Trinity Ward as well as regaining all three West Barnes seats.

    Was anyone expecting that ?

    Redbridge loses its three LibDems.

    As recently as 2010, Redbridge Council was Con 30, Lab 26, LD 7.

    Now Lab 51 (+16), Con 12 (-13)
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    El_SidEl_Sid Posts: 145
    justin124 said:

    El_Sid said:

    justin124 said:

    1995 was also a mere two years before a General Election - ie truly midterm - whilst May 2022 is still four years away....

    Whilst it is entirely appropriate that criticisms be made of Anti-Semitic conduct in Labour ranks, those who made such damning comments might now be vulnerable - in the light of Labour's underperformance in Barnet - to the charge of having deliberately sought to undermine Corbyn by an act of electoral sabotage. Why were such comments - and the resultant row - not delayed until mid- May to the post election period?

    The timing is irrelevant - "historically local elections four years before a general election are no better or worse predictors of future elections than those only one year before."
    http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-impact/what-do-the-2016-local-elections-tell-us-about-what-might-happen-in-2020/

    The anti-semitic thing is entirely on the Labour leadership - they could have shut it down quickly, but instead keep making lily-livered excuses that has allowed it to fester. Either they're incompetent or sympathisers.
    I don't disagree at all , but that begs the question as to why the critics spoke out when they did.
    They were just being honest? "The Labour Party is a moral crusade or it is nothing" - do you expect Labour members to compromise their values by standing by and saying nothing? Sounds rather Blairite to me...
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    Scott_P said:
    "Good riddance to a Blairite scab" is one of the nicer parting shots.....
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,446
    DavidL said:

    AndyJS said:

    With 126 out of 150 declared, Labour are still down by one council. So are the Tories.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cz3nmp2eyxgt/england-local-elections-2018

    Not any more. Tories gain Redditch.
    Jacqui Smith's old seat
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited May 2018
    El_Sid said:

    How is the poll looking given what we already know???

    Just looking at NEV, it's a bit closer than the GE but would still put Tories as the biggest party, which is roughly what the national polls are telling us.

    Given that it's a local election in the early stages of a Parliament, you'd expect the Opposition to drop 3-4 points and the governing party to gain 6 points in the subsequent GE.

    At this stage of the electoral cycle Labour really need to be doing better if they're to win in 2022.
    Thanks for that . What I am angling for is the poll accuracy in relation to the real votes in. London
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    El_SidEl_Sid Posts: 145

    El_Sid said:


    The anti-semitic thing is entirely on the Labour leadership - they could have shut it down quickly, but instead keep making lily-livered excuses that has allowed it to fester. Either they're incompetent or sympathisers.

    Either way, the likelihood is that the issue won't go away.
    Yeah, that's politics - but if ever a clear statement was needed on an issue, this was it. Instead we get Corbyn supping with Jewdas and half-hearted apologies for the offence caused.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Important clarification:

    https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/05/04/world/europe/opcw-skripal-attack.html#click=https://t.co/qiVTI8JX3K

    RT has been having fun over “how could they possibly have been exposed to 100g?” 100mg much less problematic...
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,387
    Have to say I am no fan of uncle Vince but a NEV share of 16% does seem a real step forward and back into the game for the Lib Dems. It is roughly double what they have been polling of late.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,446
    Floater said:

    Ken needs to take things one goose-step at a time :lol:
    a real lol moment - thanks Sunil
    You're welcome :)
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    That would imply a swing to Labour from the Tories of 1.25% since last year's General Election - and of 5.5% when compared with the 2017 Local Elections.
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,853
    If the May / Corbyn deadlock theory holds, then LE 2019 round will look and feel much more like a traditional mid term kicking for Con, as 2015 is being defended. Especially if LD get traction in the southern shire districts.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618
    DavidL said:

    Have to say I am no fan of uncle Vince but a NEV share of 16% does seem a real step forward and back into the game for the Lib Dems. It is roughly double what they have been polling of late.

    The issue is converting bin collections into national vote share. In 2017 they got 18% NEV in May for the locals and then back down to just 7.5% in June for the GE.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,894

    stodge said:

    AndyJS said:


    The Tories gained a couple of seats from Labour in Merton which I don't think anyone was expecting.

    The Liberal Democrats gained five seats in Merton including seats from the Conservatives in Dundonald and Trinity Ward as well as regaining all three West Barnes seats.

    Was anyone expecting that ?

    Redbridge loses its three LibDems.

    As recently as 2010, Redbridge Council was Con 30, Lab 26, LD 7.

    Now Lab 51 (+16), Con 12 (-13)
    Southwark loses its last two Conservatives.

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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    El_Sid said:

    justin124 said:

    El_Sid said:

    justin124 said:

    1995 was also a mere two years before a General Election - ie truly midterm - whilst May 2022 is still four years away....

    Whilst it is entirely appropriate that criticisms be made of Anti-Semitic conduct in Labour ranks, those who made such damning comments might now be vulnerable - in the light of Labour's underperformance in Barnet - to the charge of having deliberately sought to undermine Corbyn by an act of electoral sabotage. Why were such comments - and the resultant row - not delayed until mid- May to the post election period?

    The timing is irrelevant - "historically local elections four years before a general election are no better or worse predictors of future elections than those only one year before."
    http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-impact/what-do-the-2016-local-elections-tell-us-about-what-might-happen-in-2020/

    The anti-semitic thing is entirely on the Labour leadership - they could have shut it down quickly, but instead keep making lily-livered excuses that has allowed it to fester. Either they're incompetent or sympathisers.
    I don't disagree at all , but that begs the question as to why the critics spoke out when they did.
    They were just being honest? "The Labour Party is a moral crusade or it is nothing" - do you expect Labour members to compromise their values by standing by and saying nothing? Sounds rather Blairite to me...
    Justin - would you EVER tell the victim of racism to "move along, come back in three months"??
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,727
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Have to say I am no fan of uncle Vince but a NEV share of 16% does seem a real step forward and back into the game for the Lib Dems. It is roughly double what they have been polling of late.

    The issue is converting bin collections into national vote share. In 2017 they got 18% NEV in May for the locals and then back down to just 7.5% in June for the GE.
    Lib Dems up 2 councils, Labour and NOC down one each.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    edited May 2018
    Tower Hamlets:

    • John Biggs (Lab) 37,619 (48.43%, +15.61%)
    • Rabina Khan (PATH) 13,113 (16.88%)
    • Ohid Ahmed (Aspire) 11,109 (14.30%)

    PATH and Aspire are both off-shoots of Latfur Rahman's bunch - clearly the split the vote
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,899
    Con: 35% (+6)
    Lab: 35% (+4)
    LDem: 16% (+3)
    Oth [incl. UKIP]: 14% (-13)

    Chgs. w/ 2014
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    Con: 35% (+6)
    Lab: 35% (+4)
    LDem: 16% (+3)
    Oth [incl. UKIP]: 14% (-13)

    Chgs. w/ 2014

    Corbyn getting more votes but doing worse than Ed.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    El_Sid said:

    justin124 said:

    El_Sid said:

    justin124 said:

    1995 was also a mere two years before a General Election - ie truly midterm - whilst May 2022 is still four years away....

    Whilst it is entirely appropriate that criticisms be made of Anti-Semitic conduct in Labour ranks, those who made such damning comments might now be vulnerable - in the light of Labour's underperformance in Barnet - to the charge of having deliberately sought to undermine Corbyn by an act of electoral sabotage. Why were such comments - and the resultant row - not delayed until mid- May to the post election period?

    The timing is irrelevant - "historically local elections four years before a general election are no better or worse predictors of future elections than those only one year before."
    http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-impact/what-do-the-2016-local-elections-tell-us-about-what-might-happen-in-2020/

    The anti-semitic thing is entirely on the Labour leadership - they could have shut it down quickly, but instead keep making lily-livered excuses that has allowed it to fester. Either they're incompetent or sympathisers.
    I don't disagree at all , but that begs the question as to why the critics spoke out when they did.
    They were just being honest? "The Labour Party is a moral crusade or it is nothing" - do you expect Labour members to compromise their values by standing by and saying nothing? Sounds rather Blairite to me...
    Justin - would you EVER tell the victim of racism to "move along, come back in three months"??
    No I would never do that - but this is not a new issue which has suddenly burst on to the political scene. There will be suspicions from some - and I say that as a non-Corbynite myself - that it was an issue seized upon at that particular time with a view to denying Corbyn a greater triumph in these elections.
This discussion has been closed.